unit13Foreign_Exchange1

1、1234567常见货币单位名称和代号常见货币单位名称和代号国家和地区国家和地区 货币单位名称货币单位名称 货币代号货币代号 美国 美元 USD 日本 日元 JPY 欧洲经济联盟 欧元 EUR 英国 英镑 GBP 中国香港特别行政区 港元 HKD 加拿大 加拿大元 CAD 澳大利亚 澳大利亚元 AUD 新西兰 新西兰元 NZD 丹麦 丹麦克郎 DKK 瑞典 瑞典克郎 SEK 新加坡 新加坡元 SGD 8Terms and ExpressionspExchange rate 汇率pInterest rate 利率pThe European Union 欧盟pLegal tender 法定货币pFi

2、nancial transaction 金融交易pInternational currency 国际货币pForeign currency markets 外币市场pForeign exchange reserves 外汇储备9pOfficial rates 官方汇率/利率pFloating rates 浮动汇率/利率pFixed rates 固定汇率/利率pThe Financial Times 金融时报pThe Wall Street Journal 华尔街日报pThe Bank of International Settlement 国际清算银行pThe International Mo

3、netary Fund 国际货币组织pThe World Bank 国际银行10pOffer rate 卖出汇率/卖出价，贷款利率pBid rate 买入汇率/买入价，存款利率pCurrency risk 货币风险pMarket economy 市场经济pInvestment banks 投资银行pMultinational firms 跨国公司pBuy debt 投资债券pThe global monetary system全球货币体系pTransaction expenses 交易费用11Foreign exchangepthe currency of any foreign countr

4、y, which is the authorized instrument of settlement. In the context of international trade, foreign exchange means the instruments expressed in foreign currency and employed in making payments between countries - paper currency, checks, bill of exchange. 12Foreign exchange ratepExchange rate means p

5、rice of one currency in terms of another.p It is normally expressed in terms of how many units of home countrys currency are needed to buy one unit of a foreign currency. p汇率是指用另一种货币表示的一种货币的价格。通常以需要多少个单位的本国货币可买到一个单位的外国货币来表示。13I. Foreign Exchange Rate 1. Purpose of exchange rate system- to work out t

6、he worth of a currency when exchanging one currency into another- to provide a free and liquid market for the worlds currencies- to facilitate the exchange of currencies in global trade & investment142. Determination of exchange rates1) Purchasing power parity 购买力平价说购买力平价说- Prices of tradable go

7、ods and services tend to equalize across countries.- equalize purchasing power of two currencies in their respective countrya movie ticket： $6 in US = 540 in Japan- 汇率取决于两国货币国内购买力的对比关系- It defines what exchange rates ideally should be152) Law of One Price 一价定律一价定律- estimate the exchange rate between

8、 two currencies using just one good or service as a measure of the proper exchange for all goods and services - one proper product ?- identical in quality and content- produced entirely domestically Big Mac !16The Big Mac Index - the hamburger standard In local currencyIn dollarActual exchange rate

9、Valuation against Dollar %US2.492.49Canada3.332.121.57 - 15% undervaluedChina10.501.276.37 - 51%undervalued17II. The Market for Currencies 1. Foreign currency exchange rate1) Concept - the price of any one countrys currency in terms of another countrys currencyE.g. the US dollar the European euro 1.

10、3156 dollars per euro US$ 1.3156 / or: EUR 1.00 = USD 1.3156But: US$ 1.1882 / February 24, 2006 US$ 1.3132/ March 5,2007 US$ 1.3156/ May 3,201218Currency symbols or currency abbreviations- the computer symbols (ISO-4217 codes): USD, EUR, RMB- a lack of agreement in international finance: eg. British

11、 bound sterling: , GBP, STG,19pAn exchange rate can be quoted in two wayspDirect (American) terms pIndirect (European) termspIn this course we will always (unless otherwise stated) quote the exchange rate in direct termsExchange Rate Quoting20pPrice of foreign currency in terms of national currencyp

12、direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units p目前大多数国家采用这种标价法；在招商银行开办的交易币种当中，日元、瑞士法郎、加拿大元、港币、新加坡元均采用直接标价法，如1美元=115.25日元；1美元=1.47加拿大元等。Direct Terms21pPrice of national currency in terms of foreign currencypindirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units p欧元、英镑、

13、澳大利亚元采用间接标价法，如1英镑=1.6025美元；1欧元=1.5680加拿大元；1欧元=1.0562美元；1澳大利亚元=0.5922美元等Indirect Terms22p1.直接标价法,是以一定单位（如1、100、10000）的外国货币为标准来折算应付若干单位的本国货币的汇率标价方法。即以本国货币表示出外国货币的价格。p2.间接标价法, 是以一定单位（如1、100、10000）的本国货币为标准来折算应收若干单位的外国货币的汇率标价方法。即以外国货币表示出本国货币的价格。 23Terminology of exchange ratesSpot exchange rate - the exc

14、hange of currencies for immediate delivery (within two business days)Forward exchange rate - contracts to exchange currencies on a future date at an agreed-upon rate (for maturities of 30, 90, 120, 180, 360 days)- a valuable tool to lock in future rate of exchange24pIf the dollar depreciates against

15、 the euro ,this must mean that the euro has appreciated against the dollarpIf the dollar appreciates against the euro , this must mean that the euro has depreciated against the dollarAppreciation and Depreciation of a Currency25pAn exchange rate depreciation means the domestic currency has depreciat

16、ed pan exchange rate appreciation means the domestic currency has appreciatedpIf the exchange rate depreciates then epIf the exchange rate appreciates then eAppreciation and Depreciation of the Exchange Rate26pIf the $/ exchange rate moves from e=1.00 to e=.95pexchange rate has appreciated by 5%pDol

17、lar has appreciated against the euro by 5% (it now cost $0.95 as opposed to $1 to buy 1) pthe euro has depreciated against the dollar by approximately 5% (it now costs 1.05 to buy $1)Example27Foreign currency market structurea worldwide market where currencies are exchanged - telecommunication links

18、 - financial institutions around the globe - open 24 hours a day早上8时半（以纽约时间为准）纽约市场开市，9时半芝加哥市场开市，10时半旧金山开市，18时半悉尼开市，19时半东京开市，20时半香港、新加坡开市，凌晨2时半法兰克福开市，3时半伦敦市场开市。如此24小时不间断运行，外汇市场成为一个不分昼夜的市场，只有星期六、星期日以及各国的重大节日，外汇市场才会关闭。 28Evolution of the Global Monetary SystempThe gold standard, 1880s - WWIpInterwar ye

19、ars, 1919-1939pThe Bretton Woods System, 1944-1971pTimes of crisis, 1971-1973pFloating exchange rates, 1973-presentp Mixed-fixed/floating exchange rate system29pPeriod of the Gold Standard, 1880s WWI - Three basic ideas:1. a system of fixed rates of exchange; 2. “money” backed by gold reserves; 3. g

20、old acting as an automatic adjustment - a choice resulting from historical tradition30金本位制金本位制指所使用的货币为含有法定重量和成色的黄金的金属铸币以及可以按照票面价值随时兑换成铸币的纸币，对黄金进出口无限制，有足够黄金储备供国内兑换和国际结算的货币制度。采用过金本位制的国家有：英、德、比、意、瑞士、美、荷、奥、日、俄。31- functions: a. defining the value of a currency$20.67 per ounce; 4.2474 per ounce;b. determ

21、ining the exchange rate between two currencies $20.67 / = $4.8665/4.2474 / ounce of goldonce of gold32pInterwar years, 1919-1939In the 20s: - STG greatly weakened; - USD back to gold standard (1919), but not other countries (1920s); In the 30s: - end of gold convertibility in US; - rise of isolation

22、ism & protectionism;- decline of world trade & the need for currency exchange: 33pPeriod of the Bretton Woods System, 1944-1971Background: - a growing need for a system for currency convertibility and stabilityBretton Woods Conference: - 44 +1 countries gathered in Bretton Woods，NH, for a po

23、stwar international monetary system 34Bretton Woods Agreement: to establishpFixed exchange rates system（“adjustable peg”） pA fund of gold and currencies, available to member countries (IMF) - to provide sufficient liquidity (黄金、外汇、特别提款权的储备量）3. A bank, providing funding for long-term development proj

24、ects (WB). - to extend credit for countries to defend their currency values 35Bretton Woods System: “adjustable peg”- setting par values of currencies in terms of gold;- no convertibility to gold, but to US dollar only;- USD: the only currency officially convertible to gold (pegged at $35/ounce)- re

25、liance on the value of the dollar + US economy- 25 years of stability of major world currencies 36pTimes of crisis, 1971-1973August 1971: US ended convertibility of dollar into gold- the ending of fixed exchange rate system- dollar devaluated in the world currency marketsLate 1971: Group of Ten met

26、in Washington for a system to keep world markets operational: 1. dollar devaluated to $38/ounce of gold;2. all other major currencies revaluated against US$ 3. allowed to vary from fixed parity rates (固定汇率平价） by +/- 2.25%37Actual performance of the attempted system:pCurrencies surpassing the deviati

27、on limits; pRevaluation occurring more frequently;pInternational monetary system falling into chaos;pWorld currency trading nearly coming to a halt in March 1973;1.The currency markets closed for 2 weeks.38March 1973: major currencies began to float in value when the markets reopenedJanuary 1976: Gr

28、oup of Ten met in Jamaica The Jamaica Agreement: official recognition - the worlds currencies no longer fixed in value 39pFloating exchange rates, 1973-presentFloatation of major currencies in value (-) problems for world trade and commerce: risks(+) indicating true value of a currency in the market

29、 - governments unable to control the value of its currency - some currency-value management tools for governments to take: 40pBy direct intervention - often used in 1970s- by buying or selling its own currency with its reserves of other major currencies. - effective when its reserves could match the

30、 volume of currency trading - the primary problem: maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves 412. By altering economic variables: - began to be adopted in 1980s- often altering interest rates- to alter the motivation & expectation for capital movements and currency exchange; Eg. During peri

31、ods of relatively low inflation,if raising domestic interest rates:- attract capital from abroad - upside effect- possibly slow domestic economy - downside- choose an external economic policy action ? Or:a domestic economic policy action ?423. By coordinated intervention (p206)- a simultaneous inter

32、vention by central banks of major nations in the currency markets- the Plaza Agreement a successful case- 1980-1985: dramatic rise of USD in value - Group of Five met in NY in September 1985 and reached agreement- Central banks of Japan, Germany, US intervening together to push the value of USD down

33、43IV. International Money MarketspConcept of money market and international money market pEurocurrency (market)pEurocurrency interest ratespLinking Eurocurrency interest rates and exchange rates44VII. International Security MarketspBanks vs International security markets pInternational bond marketspInternational equity markets45pBanks vs international security marketsBanks: - continue to provide a large portion of international financial needs Internat