国际期货市场运行第2组我国燃油期货深入分析

1、国际期货市场运行第2组我国燃油期货深入分析一、Fundamental Analysis The generally situation of fuel oil futures prices. 2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合约报价约为每吨3723元The fuel oil futures market will be better for long position.Why? Through the supply and demand Nowadays: the world over-supply of fuel oil.There is a surplus of 53.46 mill

2、ion tons of world oil supply in 2002, but in terms of regional balance, a shortage of demand for the Asia-Pacific and North America, the need for a large number of imports from other regions; the former Soviet Union, Latin America and the Middle East have a greater surplus of fuel oil.The future sup

3、ply and demand of fuel oil region will continue to demand the existence of a huge gap.While the former Soviet Union will decline in supply capacity, but is still outside the ability for all regions of the world largest, almost demand the Asia-Pacific region and a considerable gap. has about 22 milli

4、on tons of fuel oil surplus3.Asia-Pacific region over the next few years will continue to be the worlds most active oil trade, Singapore as an international oil trade and oil transit center will have a large amount of fuel oil re-exportsThe situation of fuel oil transactionThe situation of fuel oil

5、inventoryRelevant economic index道琼斯工业指数道琼斯工业指数： CPI&PPIChinas CPI fell 1.4 percent, and PPI fell 7.2% in MayU.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6%. and PPI up 1.4% in May GDPThe first quarter of 2009 increased 6.1 percent in China, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis,

6、it is means overall economic performance during the first quarter better than expectedIn U.S., the first quarter GDP rose 0.7 percent, higher overseas sales of the reasons for pushing up GDP. Economists expected a value of 0.8 percent or years. The first quarter of 02-year increase is the weakest gr

7、owth since the end of the year. Economists expect the economy will rebound in the second quarter. Economic situation of China, U.S. and Europe It is easy to see that China, the United States and Europes economic situation is not quite well in the whole economy, but it is still in the recovery phase,

8、 and slowly turn for the betterFutures-related impact: crude oil 本周原油市场涨势有所趋缓，整体涨幅2.61%。国内燃油市场本周主力换月至909合约，走势上依旧跟随国际原油市场，震荡上行，盘中创出年内新高至3838元，本周涨幅逾4%，剔除端午节补涨因素外，整体上沪油走势仍弱于原油市场。原油市场短期内快速上扬主要依靠人们对经济复苏预期以及美元快速走软，与其基本面供需并无较大关联。The foreign price of fuel oilNew York oil price broke 70 U.S. dollars, a recor

9、d high of 7 monthsBreaking news, events 1. China National Petroleum Corporation have found a giant oil field which has a scale of 1 billion ton in Bo Hai Bay tidal area. 2. The price of crude oil has declined over 70%.08年在衰退风潮的刺激下，盛极一时的原油价格，也从今年7月11日的美元每桶一路下滑至每桶35美元，跌幅超过70%。3. NPC &CPPCC influen

10、ced world economy. 中国日报网中国在线消息：当地时间2日下午，包括全球主要经济体的二十国集团（G20）峰会在伦敦落幕。为应对全球金融危机，各国领导人同意斥资万亿美元挽救全球经济。 4.APEC summit meeting issued an statement that they object protecionism. 5.Coal price overall worldwide falls on account of the slow down of world economy. 6. That Iran keeps a hard-line stand in Nucle

11、ar Issues is still the core of geopolitical collision. The problem about Iranian Nuclear Issues appears sharper.Conclusion 目前原油市场以及美元走势是整体商品走势领头目前原油市场以及美元走势是整体商品走势领头羊，而美元经过快速下挫后存在技术性反弹需求，羊，而美元经过快速下挫后存在技术性反弹需求，短期内将给予商品一定压力；原油市场短期将试短期内将给予商品一定压力；原油市场短期将试探探70美元关口，若能站稳美元关口，若能站稳70美元则有进一步上行美元则有进一步上行空间，若遇阻原

12、油或将回撤至空间，若遇阻原油或将回撤至62附近支撑位。中附近支撑位。中期来看原油仍保持着良好的上升通道，国内燃油期来看原油仍保持着良好的上升通道，国内燃油市场虽有基本面不利因素拖累其涨势，但在原油市场虽有基本面不利因素拖累其涨势，但在原油市场走好支撑下后期依旧维持震荡上行走势。市场走好支撑下后期依旧维持震荡上行走势。二. Influence of the foreign market Market：NYMEX： Daily Candlestick Chartings RIS (relative strength indicator) 美燃油08 Date： weekly Candlestick

13、 Chartings RIS (relative strength indicator) 美燃油08 Market：NYMEX： Monthly Candlestick Chartings RIS (relative strength indicator) 美燃油08 Date：09年6月8日 Market：上海交易市场： Daily Candlestick Chartings RIS (relative strength indicator) 燃油0908 Date： weekly Candlestick Chartings RIS (relative strength indicator) 燃油0908 Market：上海交易