各组织应该警惕亚洲私人部门债务飙升

1、August can be a perilous month for investors. It is a month when there is little volume or liquidity in financial markets and thiss August appears to be an especially treacherous one. 8月对投资者而言可能是一个危险的月份。8月的金融市场交易量或流动性非常低，今年的8月看起来尤其凶险。 Among the most vulnerable perhaps surprisingly are emerging Asian

2、 markets, where aggregate private sector debt has been building up. That is because the combination of high leverage and lack of liquidity is not a happy one when investors are feeling nervous. 有些人也许想不到，亚洲新兴市场（那里的私人部门总债务一直在攀升）现在属于最脆弱的市场。原因在于，在投资者正感到紧张之际，高杠杆和流动性匮乏的组合可不是一个令人乐观的组合。 This summer, the mar

3、kets have been hit by a bout of fear from a combination of the prospect of a world with less easy money and more dangerous gunmen. Since their July peaks, emerging market debt and currencies have weakened. 今年夏季，市场受到一波恐慌情绪的冲击，原因是人们担心世界上的宽松货币可能会减少，而危险的投机者有所增多。自7月份见顶以来，新兴市场债市和汇率已经走低。 Today, as investor

4、s shift away from their quest for yield, and outflows from US junk bond funds last week reached a record $11.4bn, it seems timely to ask how badly the emerging markets of Asia will be affected and how much they should be affected. 如今，随着投资者逐渐停止对收益的追逐，美国垃圾债基金的赎回额上上周达到创纪录的114亿美元，似乎是时候问问亚洲新兴市场即将以及应该会受到多

5、么严重的影响了。 While leverage levels have dropped in developed markets since the financial crisis, they have gone the other way across the Pacific. The total stock of debt has more than doubled to $21tn in emerging Asia in the past five years, JPMorgan notes. Asian debt is back to levels last seen during

6、the regions financial crisis of 1997, according to data from Gavekal Dragonomics, a research boutique. 自本次金融危机以来，发达市场的杠杆水平有所下降，但太平洋对岸的情形正好相反。摩根大通(JPMorgan)指出，过去5年亚洲新兴市场债务总存量增加了一倍多，至21万亿美元。研究机构龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的数据显示，亚洲债务规模回到了1997年亚洲金融危机期间的水平。 Heavy burden 沉重负担 Debt levels matter because they

7、have an influence on future growth and the more expensive the debt, the heavier the burden on borrowers. 债务水平事关紧要，因为它会影响未来的经济增长，而且债务成本越高，借款人的负担就越重。 Since 2009, the region has been among the most fortunate in the world as its high growth rate attracted disproportionate capital flows from outside. Mos

8、t of that debt came from domestic borrowing, though, with just $2.5tn of the total in foreign borrowing. 2009年以来，由于亚洲的高增长率吸引了数量多得离谱的外部资本流入，该地区一直是全球最幸运的地区之一。不过，亚洲大多数债务是内债，外债总额仅为2.5万亿美元。 In addition, much of Asia still generates current account surpluses, which have led, in turn, to large foreign exch

9、ange reserves. These considerations have led many analysts to conclude that Asia is far less exposed today than it was 17 years ago. 此外，亚洲很多国家仍有经常账户盈余，这又导致了高额的外汇储备。考虑到这些因素，很多分析师断定，亚洲今日的风险敞口远低于17年前。 But the optimistic analysis focuses on the sovereign. The chances of a systemic crisis are more remote

10、 than in 1997, but that is not to say corporate Asia is immune. Many Asian companies have been huge beneficiaries of the inflows set in train by the Federal Reserves zero interest rate policies. 但是，这一乐观分析关注的是主权债务。发生一场系统性危机的可能性确实小于1997年，不过，这并不是说亚洲企业不会受到影响。美联储(Fed)零利率政策导致大量资金流入亚洲，许多亚洲企业从中受益匪浅。 Now, th

11、ough, a benign period for Asia seems to be drawing to an end. Exports have been growing at a slower rate for many countries in the region. US companies are spending less not only on plant and equipment but also on technology, which hurts a region that has thrived by providing both corporations and c

12、onsumers with their technology tools. 不过，亚洲的好日子如今似乎快走到头了。许多亚洲国家的出口增长一直在减速。美国企业不但在厂房与设备、而且在技术上减少开支，这对亚洲构成了伤害。亚洲通过向美国企业和消费者供应技术工具取得了蓬勃发展。 “Emerging Asias foreign liabilities are now higher as a share of exports than any time in the last 10 years,” notes Jahangir Aziz, a Washington-based economist for

13、JPMorgan, adding that as a result there is “increased potential for currency mismatch in the private sector. Corporates are directly exposed to FX shocks.” 摩根大通(JP Morgan)驻华盛顿经济学家贾汉吉尔•阿齐兹(Jahangir Aziz)指出：“如今，亚洲新兴市场的外债与出口之比高于以往10年的任何时候。”他补充道，其结果是，“私人部门出现货币错配的可能性加大了。企业直接曝险于外汇冲击。” Bond dependenc

14、e 债券依赖 Moreover, while as a percentage of total borrowing, foreign borrowing is smaller than in the past, the absolute amounts and the dependence of some companies on the US bond market is growing. Almost half the borrowers are Chinese, mostly property and industrial groups. Another 10 per cent are

15、Indonesian. 另外，尽管外债占总债务的比例低于过去，但外债的绝对额在增加，有些企业也越来越依赖美国债券市场。近半数借款者是中国企业，主要是房地产和工业集团。另有10%的借款者为印尼企业。 JPMorgans Asian credit index, which includes both high grade and high yield debt, stands at $500bn, three times higher than in 2005. 摩根大通亚洲信贷指数（既包含高评级又包含高收益债券）所涵盖的债券总市值目前为5000亿美元，是2005年的3倍。 For the fir

16、st half of this year issuance was $96bn, while for the whole of last year, $120bn was raised. And while less than 20 per cent of that is high yield, it is worth remembering that critical inflection points often reflect incremental changes. If the US high yield market suffers, the Asian US dollar hig

17、h yield market is likely to register the impact. 今年上半年，亚洲企业发债960亿美元，而去年全年发债1200亿美元。尽管高收益债券比例不足20%，但不能忘记的是，关键拐点往往是渐进式变化的反映。如果美国高收益债券市场形势不好，亚洲美元高收益债券市场很可能会受到冲击。 Of the 51 defaults in the market since 2000, 17 were Chinese borrowers and 23 were Indonesian. Today Chinese and Indonesian companies may be

18、especially vulnerable in the face of skittish investors. 2000年以来亚洲美元高收益债券市场发生了51起违约，中国借款企业占17起，印尼借款企业占23起。如今，面对易受惊吓的投资者，中国和印尼企业可能尤其容易受到冲击。 All these potential clouds over credit markets come at a time when the Chinese stock markets have rallied. Chinese equities have been the single best performing asset class in the past month, (up 4.4 per cent) with inflows at their highest level since December 2012. Meanwhile, the SP 5