东盟成员国老年收入保障政策趋势、挑战与机遇

1、FOREWORD BY MINISTER OF MINISTRY OF LABOUR, INVALIDS AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS OF VIET NAMAs forecasted, ASEAN will enter the stage of aging population in 2030 with about 72 million elderly people and as estimated, this number will reach 124 million by 2050. In response to the impacts of aging society, tog

2、ether with the aim of expressing strong commitment insocial protection, in recent years ASEAN Member States (AMS) have adopted a number of important Declarations such as: Kuala Lumpur Declaration on Aging: Empowering Older Persons in ASEAN; ASEAN Declaration on Strengthening Social Protection and Ac

3、tion Plan to implement this Declaration. I highly appreciate the efforts of relevant sectoral bodies in promoting the implementation of the initiatives to realize the ASEAN Leaders Declarations. Among these efforts, the report “Old-age income security in ASEAN Member States - Policy trends,challenge

4、s and opportunities” is indeed a remarkable achievement of the labor sector.We all acknowledge that in the transition to an aging population in each country, should the country not be well-prepared and synchronized, the impacts on the social welfare and social protection for the people in general an

5、d the elderly in particular will be tremendous. The fact has shown that the health and the working ability to work of the elderly are declining while the issues related to social protection, especially old-age pension for this particular group have not been up to expectation. Over the past few decad

6、es, some AMS have introduced old-age pension regimes to ensure livelihoods for the elderly and provide income security for some vulnerable groups. Besides the aforementioned achievements, ASEAN is still facing many difficulties and challenges, with regard to resources and experience, as well as stra

7、tegies to create an effective pension system. The access to pension is solely for a limited number of subjects, and currently many older people have to rely on family support. Furthermore, ensuring the financial sustainability of the pension system is also a challenge for the social security system

8、of each country. The report “Old- age income security in ASEAN Member States - Policy trends, challenges and opportunities” provides an overview of the status of the social security system in each member country, especially for the elderly, the challenges and policy gaps in such system, and on the g

9、round of which, proposes recommendations on the policy. I hope with these recommendations, the Ministers, policy makers and stakeholders in ASEAN could issue policies according to the each socio-economic condition of each nation, the management mechanisms that proactively address the issues related

10、to the pension system in a long term.On this occasion, I would like to express my appreciation for the cooperation and participation of the AMS, the efficient coordination of ASEAN Secretariat and technical support from International Labor Organization (ILO) to be with the Ministry of Labor, Invalid

11、s and Social Affairs of Viet Nam in developing this report. I strongly hope that ASEAN Senior Labor Officials will continue their efforts to implement the recommendations of the report towards promoting social protection system, building an inclusive and sharing society, empowering labor workers in

12、general and older persons in particular in the region.DAO NGOC DUNGMinisterMinistry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs of Viet NamFOREWORD BY THE SECRETARY- GENERAL OF ASEANWe are witnessing an unprecedented demographic transition , with the global proportion of older people increasing dramatica

13、lly. In the ASEAN region, around 64 million older persons in 2017 are projected to rise 2.6 times by 2050, reaching 168 million.i Similarly,the old-age dependency rate in the region is also expected to jump from 8.8 in 2015 to 23 .9 in 2050.iiIn light of this, countries with ageing societies need to

14、 raise the responsiveness of their social protection, which includes pension schemes . Reviewing and strengthening policies related to income security of older persons is therefore critical in achieving ASEAN s broader goal of enhancing the well-being of all people .Therefore, I am pleased to presen

15、t this Study Report on Old-Age Income Security in ASEAN Member States- Policy Trends, Challenges and Opportunities , which is relevant and timely as ASEAN puts a premium on significantly expanding social security systems and ensuring benefit adequacy that meet international benchmarks.I commend the

16、ASEAN Senior Labour Officials Meeting (SLOM) for leading this initiative under the coordination of the Ministry of Labour, Invalid and Social Affairs of VietNam in cooperation with the ASEAN Secretariat and International Labour Organization (ILO), and supported by the ASEAN Development Fund.I hope t

17、hat the studys analysis and recommendations would contribute to the development of effective and inclusive old-age pension systems within ASEAN Member States . I encourage relevant stakeholders to consider the studys proposed mechanisms in building an inclusive ASEAN community that promotes high qua

18、lity of life and equitable access to opportunities for all.United Nations, Department on Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects:The 2017 revisionUnited Nations, Department on Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017

19、revisionTFOREWORD BY ASSISTANT DIRECTOR- GENERAL AND REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF ILO REGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIChere is growing attention to the significance of ageing populations in ASEAN Member States. Recent national and regional public debates have discussed the possible impacts of this st

20、ructural change and the measures that countries can and should put in place.It is undeniable that the population in the ASEAN Community as a whole is ageing. For some countries, such as Singapore, Thailand and VietNam, the pace is extremely fast. But even countries with a large youth population, lik

21、e Cambodia and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, are rapidly ageing.These developments are expected to put families and individuals under extraordinary pressure, making ageing a challenge to societies as a whole. It will further be a challenge to public finances. It is clear that the demographic

22、transition towards an ageing society has deep social, economic and politicalimplications. Understandably, policy makers are concerned about public health costs and the fiscal wellbeing of pension systems. Whats more, if not properly addressed, ageing might also negatively affect a countrys overall p

23、roductivity.In the midst of this demographic trend, citizens in ASEAN Member States are increasingly calling on their governments to assume greater responsibility in providing old-age income security. Individuals are also more open to the idea of contributing to a public pension system.This being sa

24、id, the reality is that old-age pensions in many ASEAN countries are still only accessible to a minority of people. Among ASEAN Member States, the proportion of older persons receiving pensions varies significantly from country to country. Moreover, the gender gap in old-age pension coverage highlig

25、hts further inequalities within countries.In this particular context, policy makers face opposing pressures. One relates to the urgency to expand coverage and increase benefits, while the other has to do with tackling long-term financial sustainability.Guaranteeing old-age income security takes on a

26、dditional importance when viewed in the light of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In particular, SDG target 1.3 calls for national social protection systems for all, including social protectionfloors.To guarantee that no older person is lef

27、t behind, policy-makers and decision-makers should consider comprehensive and integrated public pension systems based on the principle of universality. Indeed, the development of an inclusive old-age pension system can address several issues and have a multiplier effect beyond ending poverty in all

28、its forms everywhere (SDG 1). It can contribute considerably to supporting gender equality and the empowerment of women (SDG 5) and helping to reduce inequality within and among countries (SDG 10).With this in mind, the ASEAN Secretariat and VietNams Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs c

29、ontacted the ILO to collaborate on preparing this report. The ILO welcomes this initiative, especially since the findings of the report will feed into national and regional debates to help ASEAN Member States make evidence-based decisions on old-age pension policy.The report points to the importance

30、 and urgency of implementing measures to reduce the old-age pension coverage gap, increase benefits and improve the financial sustainability of pension systems. As a whole, the report can contribute to more comprehensive national approaches to effective policy making for old-age income security.Fina

31、lly, the recent COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of social protection as a mechanism to deal with the economic and public health crisis. The pandemic has shown that countries equipped with inclusive social protection schemes, including pensions, are better positioned to deal with the

32、impacts of the crisis, particularly on the most vulnerable, including older people.CHIHOKO ASADA-MIYAKAWAAssistant Director-General and Regional Director ILO Regional Office for Asia and the PacificTACKNOWLEDGEMENTShis Study Report on Old-Age Income Security in ASEAN Member States: Policy trends, Ch

33、allenges and Opportunities was planned under the Senior Labour Officials Meetings Working Group on Progressive Labour Practices to Enhance the Competitiveness of ASEAN (SLOM-WG) Work Plan 2016-2020 under the leadership of the Ministry of Labour,Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) of Viet Nam with t

34、he support of the ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN- Japan Fund for Building Social Safety Nets and International Labour Organization (ILO).The study report was produced through a series of ASEAN workshops and consultations with ASEAN Member States for validation including through the convening of the ILO-AS

35、EAN Seminar on the Fu- ture of Social Protection in ASEAN on 4-5 July 2019 in Bangkok, Thailand. Participating were tripartite representatives and social security agencies from ASEAN Member States, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, ASEAN Secretariat, ILO, ASEAN Trade Union Council, an

36、d ASEAN Confederation of Employers. Subsequently, the Study Report was finalised and ad-referendum endorsed by SLOM- WG on 9 March 2020. The study report also took into account the outcomes of the Workshop on Sus- taining Financing Mechanism for Social Insurance including Social Pension which was he

37、ld on 21-22 September 2017 in Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam with the support of the ASEAN-Japan Fund for Building Social Safety Nets.MOLISA would like to express our sincerest gratitude to the following individuals for their technical expertise and knowledge in making this study worthwhile.To the focal poin

38、ts, all of whom we can not acknowledge individually, of labour ministries of ASEAN Member States for your valuable information and insights;To the ASEAN Secretariat, particularly Ms. Mega Irena, Ms. Pitchanuch Supavanich (former Senior Offi- cer), Ms. Madyah Rahmi Lukri, and Ms. Sarah Choirinnisa fo

39、r your valuable inputs and support through- out the process;To the study co-authors, Mr. Wolfgang Scholz (deceased), Research Associate, University Bonn-Rhein- Sieg and Mr. Nuno Cunha, Senior Social Protection Specialist, ILO Decent Work Team Bangkok;To Ms. Loveleen Dee (ILO Lao PDR); Ms. Sara Elder

40、 (Regional Economic and Social Analysis Unit of ILO Regional Office for Asia and Pacific); Mr. Markus Ruck (Decent Work Team for Asia and Pacific); Ms. Christina Behrendt (SOCPRO Geneva); Mr. Fabio Duran Valverde (SOCPRO Geneva); Mr. Andres Acuna (SOCPRO Geneva); Ms. Quynh Anh Nguyen (SOCPRO Geneva)

41、; Mr. Charles Knox-Vydmanov (Indepen- dent Consultant); Mr. Florian Juergens (Help Age International); Ms. Vanessa Steinmayer (UN ESCAP); Ms. Kalaivani Karunanethy (Independent Consultant); Mr. Andi Sanusi (Independent Expert); Ms. Laura Schmitz (Independent Consultant); and Ms. Silas Theile (Indepe

42、ndent Consultant);Lastly, MOLISA would also like to express our sympathies with the untimely passing of Mr. Wolfang Scholz whose contribution to the study has been significant.In memory of Wolfgang, who is a professor, a unique economist, a public policy expert, a historian, a man of the world. It w

43、as a unique privilege and honour to collaborate with you in this Report. Thanks for all you taught me. I will always take those lessons with me. Nuno Cunha (Co-Author)TABLE OF CONTENTSFOREWORD BY MINISTER OF MOLISA VIET NAM IIIFOREWORD BY SECRETARY-GENERAL OF ASEAN IVFOREWORD BY ASSISTANT DIRECTOR-G

44、ENERAL AND REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF ILOREGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC VACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIBOXES, FIGURES AND TABLES IXINTRODUCTION 1PENSIONS: OBJECTIVES, TRADITIONS AND SOCIOECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS 7Pension objectives and traditions 8Contemporary pension systems 12A generic overview and socioeco

45、nomic implications 12Old-age pension financing options and macroeconomic considerations 18Old-age pensions and the informal sector 26OLD-AGE PENSION PROBLEMS AND POLICY TRENDS IN THE ASEAN REGION 35Overview of challenges affecting ASEAN countries 36Old-age pension systems under construction in ASEAN

46、 countries:Achievements, deficiencies and incompatibilities 44Provident funds 51Asia: Aged before rich? The issue of pension affordability 55Social protection and pension trends in the ASEAN region 57PENSION POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ASEAN MEMBER STATES 71General considerations on pension policy-ma

47、king for ASEAN 72Recommended priority areas per country and steps of coverage and adequacy reform 78Widening the fiscal space for social security, and the demands for fiscal space of other programmes 99Pension cost estimation 100CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 105Conclusions 105Recommendations 107RE

48、FERENCES 110ANNEX I STATISTICAL TABLES 122ANNEX II COUNTRY BRIEFS 125COUNTRY BRIEF: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 125COUNTRY BRIEF: CAMBODIA 133COUNTRY BRIEF: INDONESIA 141COUNTRY BRIEF: LAO PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC 149COUNTRY BRIEF: MALAYSIA 157COUNTRY BRIEF: MYANMAR 165COUNTRY BRIEF: PHILIPPINES 174COUNTRY

49、 BRIEF: SINGAPORE 185COUNTRY BRIEF: THAILAND 196COUNTRY BRIEF: VIET NAM 204BOXES, FIGURES AND TABLESBOXESBox 1. Old-Age Allowance in Thailand 29Box 2. Lack of enforcement and compliance as a major barrier to expanding coverage 33Box 3. Statistical development in ASEAN Member States and social securi

50、ty policies 41Box 4. Pension coverage 46Box 5. Central Provident Fund of Singapore 55Box 6. ASEAN Declaration on Strengthening Social Protection: A milestone 58Box 7. Brunei Darussalams old-age flat-rate demogrant: An ASEAN experiencewith universal old-age social pensions 60Box 8. Singapores Silver

51、Support Scheme: Tax-financed and means-tested old-age income supplement 61Box 9. Low protection against longevity risks in the Malaysian Employees Provident Fund 64Box 10. Addressing the foremost challenges in the Cambodian old-age income security agenda: Cost projections for providing a universal f

52、loor of old-age protection 80Box 11. Fiscal implications for the adoption of an old-age demogrant in Indonesia 82Box 12. Policy dialogue with the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic: Two scenarios of cost projections for an old-age demogrant and other recommendations 84Box 13. Myanmar: Recommendations f

53、or increasing old-age pension coverage 87Box 14. Social pensions: Estimated costs of increasing old-age coverage in the Philippines 88Box 15. Expanding coverage to self-employed workers in the Philippines 90Box 16. Improving financial sustainablity in Thailands old-age pension system 93Box 17. Multi

54、tier old-age pension system in Viet Nam 95Box 18. Simulated impacts and costs of reforming the social pension in Viet Nam 98FIGURESFigure 1. A: ILO multi-pillar pension model 12Figure 2. Typical developments of alternative types of contribution rates 23Figure 3. Conceptual framework: Informal employ

55、ment 27Figure 4. Composition of informal employment (including agriculture), by employment status, latest available year (%) 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250038 Figure 5. Population aged 60 years or older, by region, 19802050 (thousands) 38Figure 6. Percentage of population older than the statutory pensionab

56、le age inAsia and the Pacific receiving an old-age pension, latest available year 44Figure 7. Overview of old-age pension schemes in ASEAN Member States,by type of scheme, 2015 or latest available year 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250037 Figure 8. GDP growth rates in ASEAN Member States, 200817 (%) 58 HYPERL

57、INK l _TOC_250036 Figure 9. Social protection expenditure, including health care, in ASEAN Member States, latest available year (% of GDP) 62 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250035 Figure 10. Distribution of Cambodian workers contributing to the National Social Security Fund, 2015 80 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250034 Figure

58、 11. Cost of a monthly universal pension in Cambodia, 20182117 (% of GDP) 81Figure 12. Costs of providing a universal old-age pension in Indonesia to persons aged 60 or 65 or older,201462 (% of GDP) 83Figure 13. Cost projections for two scenarios of old-ageuniversal social pensions in the Lao People

59、s Democratic Republic, 201730 (% of GDP) 84Figure 14. Projection of costs of a pension-tested demogrant in Myanmarfor persons aged 60 or older and 65 or older, 201797 (as % of GDP) 87 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250033 Figure 15. Scenarios of costs projections of the social pension in the Philippines, 201728 (

60、% of GDP) 89 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250032 Figure 16. Tentative cost estimates of a non-contributory pension in Singapore 91Figure 17. Projection of Thailands Social Security Office reserves levels, 201454 (baht) 94Figure 18. Reduction in poverty rates at the national level and among social pension recipi