第二届核能安全技术高峰高峰论坛7status of nuclear energy and safety in japan after fukushima accident15.11.2中英双版

1、Status of nuclear energy and safety in Japan after Fukushima nuclear accidentMitsuru UesakaNuclear Professional School / Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, University of Tokyo, JapanNovember 2, 20152nd Summit on Nuclear Energy Safety Technology(SNEST)Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety

2、 Technology(INEST), Hefei, China后福岛时代的日本核能安全现状报告人：上坂充核专业学院/ 核工程与管理系日本 东京大学2015年11月2日第二届核能安全技术高峰论坛中国，合肥，核能安全技术研究所Shut down was scheduled on Mar.31, 2011, but was really Mar.11. mission is under way Nuclear Professional School of University of TokyoMain OfficeS-band Twin LinacsReactorHeavy Ion Facilit

3、yPortable X-band LinacsThe Great East Japan Earthquake,TEPCOs Fukushima nuclear accident(March 2011)Thermal power ratioNuclear power ratio1973 oil crisis(October 1973)Three Mile Island accident(March 1979)Chernobyl accident (August 1986)Activation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (March

4、 1994)Mal reporting incident by TEPCO(August 2002)Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, temporary shutdown of TEPCOs KashiwazakiKariwa NPS (2007)1979 oil crisis(1979)【hundred million kWh】After the Great East Japan Earthquake and TEPCOs Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear accident in 2011, all nuclear power plants (NPPs

5、) are in a state of temporary shutdown. (Ref.) Change of Nuclear Power Generation Output in Japan2011年3月日本大地震，福岛核事故火电比例核电比例1973年10月石油危机1979年3月三里岛事故1986年8月切尔诺贝利事故1994年3月启动气候变化框架公约2002年8月东京电力公司甲基丙烯醛报告事件2007年日本新泻县中越地震，东京电力公司的柏崎刈羽核电站暂时关闭1979 石油危机【百万千瓦】在2011年日本大地震和福岛核电站事故之后，所有核电厂处于临时关闭状态。 （参考）日本核能发电量的变化3

6、Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015Description in the Strategic Energy Plan of Japan(Ref.) Constitution of Electric Power Supply Corr

7、esponding to Demand核电是一种重要的基本负载能源，其具低碳性和准国内性，在确保其安全的大前提下能够保证能源供需结构的稳定性，优势在于能源供应和效率的稳定性，低而稳定的运行成本运行期间没有温室气体排放。日本的能源战略规划描述4（参考）电力供应需求章程Nuclear power is an important base-load power source as a low carbon and quasi-domestic energy source, contributing to stability of energy supply-demand structure, on

8、the major premise of ensuring of its safety, because of the perspectives;superiority in stability of energy supply and efficiency, low and stable operational cost and free from GHG emissions during operation.Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Ind

9、ustry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015(1) Supplier countries by fuelsEnriched uranium fuel is superior to oil and gas in terms of stable supply because locations of the uranium mines are relatively diversified.The energy efficie

10、ncy of uranium is much better than that of oil, gas and coal, when generating electricity. In fact, an uranium fuel can burn for about a year without reload, and thus this can be seen as a more effective strategic stockpile.In addition, spent nuclear fuel can be recycled by reprocessing. With these

11、reasons, nuclear energy can be evaluated as a quasi-domestic energy source.Enriched UraniumApprox. 2 yearsLNGApprox. 13 daysOilApprox. 67 daysNational Stockpile: Approx. 85 daysCoalApprox. 33 days(3) Domestic Fuel Stockpiles by private companiesEnriched UraniumLNGOilCoal21 tons: 2.1 units of 10-ton

12、truck0.95 million tons: 4.75 LNG ships1.55 million tons:7.75 large oil tankers 2.35 million tons:11.75 large coal vesselsData Source: “Nuclear 2010” by ANRE(2) Fuel for one-year operation of 1,000MW power plantSaudi ArabiaUAEQatarKuwaitIranIraqOmanRussiaIndonesiaViet NamOthersQatarUAEOmanAustraliaMa

13、laysiaIndonesiaBruneiRussiaNigeriaAustraliaIndonesiaChinaRussiaCanadaCanadaKazakhstanUzbekistanAustraliaNigerMalawiSouth AfricaOilLNGCoalUraniumNorth AmericaOther areasEuropeMiddle EastAfricaAsiaRegionsData source: “Trade Statistics 2012” by MOF of JapanDependence on ME：83%Dependence on Holmes：80%De

14、pendence on ME：30%Dependence on Holmes：25%OthersOthersOthers(Ref.) Evaluation of Nuclear Power Generation(1) Energy Security(1) 供应燃料的国家因为铀矿的位置是相对分散化的，所以浓缩铀燃料在稳定供应方面优于石油和天然气。铀发电时的能量效率比石油、天然气和煤要高得多。事实上，一个铀燃料可以燃烧大约一年而无需重新装载，因此这可以被看作是一个更有效的战略储备。此外，乏燃料可以通过再加工回收。综合考虑这些原因，核能可以作为准国内能源。(3) 国内私人公司燃料库存浓缩铀天然气油煤

15、21吨：2.1台10吨重的卡车95万吨：4.75 船天然气155万吨：7.75大型油轮235万吨：11.75个大型燃煤船数据来源：由ANRE能源机构“核2010”数据(2) 1000MW电站运行一年所需的燃料北美其他地区欧洲中东非洲亚洲Regions数据来源：日本财政部“2012年贸易统计”依赖ME：83%依赖Holmes：80%依赖ME：30%依赖Holmes：25%5核能发电评估（参考） （1）能源安全阿联酋卡塔尔科威特伊朗I伊拉克阿曼俄罗斯印尼越南其它卡塔尔阿联酋阿曼澳大利亚马拉西亚I印尼文莱俄罗斯尼尔利亚澳大利亚印尼中国俄罗斯加拿大加拿大哈萨克斯坦乌兹别克斯坦澳大利亚尼日尔马拉维南非油

16、天然气煤铀其它其它其它沙特阿拉伯浓缩铀约两年天然气约13天油约67天国家储备：约85天煤约33天Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015Policy related costAccident risk cost CO2FuelOpera

17、tion & manage-mentAdditional safety measures costCapitalLegendYen/kWhDeduction of heat value(7.79.3)Deduction of heat value(6.37.0) () : Costs without policy related cost Capacity factor in 2011 calculation Coal:80、LNG:80、Oil：50、10The result of the sensitivity analysis of the change in fossil fuel p

18、rice.(Ref.) Evaluation of Nuclear Power Generation (2) Economic Efficiency【Source】Extraction (preliminary translation) from documents released in the 7th Working Group on Verification of Power Generation, Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook mittee, Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and

19、 Energy, METIThe impact of the 10% change of the fossil fuel price（YenkWh）CoalLNGOilSensitivity analysis of the fossil fuel price changeAdditional safety measures cost doubles missioning cost doubles missioning and compensation cost increases by 1TYenReprocessing and MOX Fuel fabrication cost double

20、sSensitivity analysisProjected costs of generating electricity (2014 model plant)政策的相关成本事故风险成本CO2燃料运行和管理附加安全措施费用资本说明日元/千瓦时核能煤液化天然气风地热水利发电小 & 中液压生物油太阳能(多于10KW)太阳能(l少于10kW) 燃气热电联产石油热电联产容量因子运行年7040 年 7040 年7040 年2020 年8340 年4540 年6040 年8740 年301040 年1420 年1220 年7030 年4030 年发电成本日元/千瓦时.()（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）

21、（）（）（）（）Deduction of heat value(7.79.3)Deduction of heat value(6.37.0) () : 除了政策相关的成本费用 2011年计算的容量因子 煤:80、天然气:80、油：50、10化石燃料价格变化的灵敏度分析结果（参考）核能发电评估 （2）经济效率【来源】摘自METI自然资源和能源咨询委员会第七工作组有关能源产生、长期能源供应和需求前景核查的文件。6化石燃料价格的10的变化的影响（日元/千瓦时）煤天然气油化石燃料价格变化的灵敏度分析附加的安全措施成本翻倍退役成本翻倍每增加1千亿日元退役和补偿成本后处理和MOX燃料制造成本翻倍敏感性分析

22、发电成本预测（2014年核电厂）NuclearCoalLNGWindGeother-malHydropo-werSmall- & medium- hydraulicBiomassOilSolar(10kW more)Solar(less than 10kW)Gas cogener-ationOil cogenerationCapacity FactorOperation Year7040 years 7040 years7040 years2020 years8340 years4540 years6040 years8740 years301040 years1420 years1220 y

23、ears7030 years4030 yearsGeneration CostYen/kWh.()（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）（）Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015The nuclear power generat

24、ion cost is estimated with consideration not only for cost directly related to power generation, but also for future cost such as missioning cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost including cost for permanent disposal of radioactive waste, accident risk cost including damage compensation cost and decontamina

25、tion cost, social cost, namely policy related cost including subsidies for power plant siting and R&D expense for “Monju” and etc.Accident risk cost (0.3Yen/kWh)The accident response cost of the Fukushima Daiichi accident is estimated 12.2TYen which can be corrected to 9.1TYen in consideration of po

26、wer output of model plant and etc.The lower limit of the estimated value is presented because the damage compensation cost can increase in the future. The accident risk cost will increase 0.04Yen/kWh as missioning and compensation cost increases 1TYen.Policy related cost (1.3Yen/kWh)The cost contain

27、s 345BYen (2014FY) subsidy for power plant siting （130BYen/year） and R&D cost for “Monju” （130BYen/year） and etc.Additional safety measures cost (0.6Yen/kWh) Add 60.1BYen which is the estimated cost for additional safety measures for new regulationNuclear fuel cycle cost (1.5Yen/kWh)The half of spen

28、t fuel is stored for 20 years and reprocessed after that, and the other half is stored for 45 years and reprocessed after that.The cost contains front-end cost (0.9Yen), back-end cost (total: 0.6Yen, reprocessing : 0.5Yen, high-level radioactive waste：0.04Yen）.Capital cost3.1YenOperating and mainten

29、ance cost3.3YenNuclear fuel cycle cost 1.5YenPolicy related cost1.3YenAccident risk cost0.3YenAdditional safety measures cost 0.6YenNuclear power generation cost 10.1Yen/kWhCapital (3.1Yen/kWh) Building cost (0.37MYen/kW（440BYen/plant）), fixed asset tax (1.4)、 missioning cost (71.6BYen)Social costPo

30、wer generation costCapacity: 1.2GWOperating rate: 70Discount rate: 3Operating period of plant: 40 yearsOperating and maintenance cost (3.3Yen/kWh) Employment cost (2.05BYen/year), repair cost (2.2), overhead cost (8.44BYen/year)(Ref.) Evaluation of Nuclear Power Generation (2) Economic Efficiency【So

31、urce】Extraction (preliminary translation) from documents released in the 8th Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook mittee, Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, METI核电发电成本估算不仅要考虑与发电直接相关的成本，还要考虑到将来的成本，例如退役成本，核燃料循环成本（包括放射性废物永久处置成本），事故风险成本（包括损害赔偿成本，去污成本，社会成本，即政策相关的成本（包括核电厂选址补贴以及 “文殊

32、”及其他堆的研发费用）.事故风险成本 (0.3日元/千瓦时)福岛事故响应成本预计为12.2T日元，考虑到典型设备的电能输出以及其它因素，成本可修正为9.1T日元。估计值的下限值仅仅是当前情况，因为在未来，损害赔偿费用可以增加。当退役和赔偿成本增加1T日元，那么事故风险成本将增加0.04日元/千瓦时。.政策相关的成本（1.3日元/千瓦时）成本包含345B日元（2014fy）的电站选址补贴（130B日元/年）和“Monju”的研发成本（130B日元/年）等。附加安全措施成本 (0.6日元/千万时) 针对新法规的附加安全措施，其成本估计将增加60.1日元。核燃料循环成本（1.5日元/千瓦时）乏燃料的

33、一半保存20年后再进行加工处理，另一半乏燃料保存45年后再进行加工处理。成本包含前端成本（0.9日元），后端成本（总成本：0.6日元，再处理：0.5日元，高放射性废物：0.04日元）。资本费用3.1日元运行和维护成本3.3日元核燃料循环成本 1.5日元政策相关成本1.3日元事故风险成本0.3日元附加安全措施成本 0.6日元核电发电成本 10.1日元/千瓦时资本费用（3.1日元/千瓦时）建设成本（0.37M日元/千瓦（440B日元/设备），固定资产税（1.4%）、退役成本（71.6B日元）社会成本发电成本容量：1.2GW运行率：70%贴现率：3%运行周期：40年运行和维护成本（3.3日元/千瓦时

34、） 雇佣成本（2.05byen /年），维修成本（2.2%），管理费用（8.44B日元/年）资金（3.1日元/千瓦时）7（参考）核能发电评估 （2）经济效率【来源】摘自第八届长期能源供应和需求展望委员会颁发的文件（初步翻译），自然资源和能源咨询委员会，METI.Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy M

35、anagement School 2015, June, 2015Nuclear power is a well-established large-scale low-carbon power source which dont emit GHG during operation. It is still internationally considered as one of the important solutions to the global warming, though it assumes some challenges.In case of substituting a c

36、oal-fired plant (1GW, capacity factor 80) by a nuclear power plant, 0.4% of CO2 emission (5.8 Mt) out of the total emission of Japan could be reduced.（i.e., 4% reduction by 10 plants)Life cycle CO2 emission for each power sourceCO2 emissionfrom utilitiesEnergy orientedCO2 emissionEnergy orientedGHG

37、except CO2emission.2.（Bt-CO2）GHG emission and long-term targetTarget after 2020 to be presented prior enough to COP21 (2015)36.227.621.8（2010）1.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.2Source：CRIEPIWind powerSolar powerGeothermal energyHydropowerNuclear powerCoal-firedCoal-firedLNG-fired (combined)LNG-fired (steam)Fue

38、l (direct)Others (indirect)FY1990FY2005FY2012FY2050emission- In Japan, toward the next conference of COP21, Ministry of the Environment(MOE) and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(METI) established a joint committee to discuss domestic preparation for Japans intended contributions towards the 2

39、015 climate agreement, which will come into force from 2020.- The draft proposal of Japans reduction target on GHG emission has been shown by this committee in the end of April 2015 , which is taking Japans energy policy and discussion on the best energy mix into consideration.(Ref.) Evaluation of N

40、uclear Power Generation (3)environmental adaptability 核电作为大规模发电的低碳能源技术，尽管面临诸多挑战，仍被国际上视为减少温室气体排放的重要途径假设用核电厂取代厂火电(1GW, 容量因子80) ，日本总CO2 气体排放将减少0.4% (580 万吨) ，每10个核电厂将减少4%的CO2气体释放政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第III工作组报告(2014年4月)核能是一项成熟稳定的低碳能源技术, 但是自1993年以来它在全球发电所占的份额一直在减少。核能为低碳能源发展做出巨大贡献, 然而存在很多阻碍和风险。每种能源的生命周期CO2排放量

41、 CO2 emissionfrom utilitiesEnergy orientedCO2 emissionEnergy orientedGHG except CO2emission.2.（Bt-CO2）温室气体排放和长期目标Target after 2020 to be presented prior enough to COP21 (2015)36.227.621.8（2010）1.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.2Source：CRIEPIWind powerSolar powerGeothermal energyHydropowerNuclear powerCoal-fire

42、dCoal-firedLNG-fired (combined)LNG-fired (steam)Fuel (direct)Others (indirect)FY1990FY2005FY2012FY2050emission- 在日本的COP21会议中, 日本环境部门和经济贸易产业部门共同成立一联合委员会，着手讨论为了达到2015年气候协议中日本在2020年开始实施生效的预期目标，日本国内需要做的准备。- 在2015年4月底举办的此次会议中，日本减少温室气体排放的提议草案被提出来, 将日本能源政策及讨论归结到能源构成当中。(参考) 核能发展(3)环境适应性 8Intergovernmental P

43、anel on Climate Change（IPCC） WG III report (April 2014)Nuclearenergyisamaturelow-GHGemissionsourceofbaseloadpower, but its share of global electricity generation has been declining (since 1993). Nuclear energy could make an increasing contribution to low-carbon energy supply, but a variety of barrie

44、rs and risks exist.Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 201592030Solar74.97.0%Wind18.21.7%Geothermal10.211.31.01.1%Hydropower93.998.18.89.2

45、%Biomass39.449.03.74.6%Composition of electrical sourcesand electricity generation（billion kWh）2030Oil31.53%Coal281.026%LNG284.527%Nuclear power231.7216.82220%Renewable energy236.6251.52224%Total1065.0100%2030Renewable energy 2224% (approx.)LNG 27% (approx.)Coal26% (approx.)Oil 3% (approx.)LNG 27%Oi

46、l 12%Coal 24%Average in the last 10 years before 3.11Nuclear power 27%Renewable energy 11%Nuclear power 2220% (approx.) All the numbers are approximate(Ref.) Energy Best Mix Outlook of Composition of Electric Power Sources【Source】Extraction (preliminary translation) from documents released in the 8t

47、h Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook mittee, Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, METI2030太阳能74.97.0%风能18.21.7%地热能10.211.31.01.1%水利发电93.998.18.89.2%生物质能39.449.03.74.6%电源和发电构成（billion kWh）2030石油31.53%煤炭281.026%天然气284.527%核能231.7216.82220%可再生能源236.6251.52224%总计1065.0100%2030可再生

48、能源2224% (近似)天然气 27% (近似)煤炭26% (近似)石油 3% (近似)天然气 27%石油 12%煤炭 24%过去十年的平均值 3.11核能 27%可再生能源 11% 核能 2220% (近似) 所有数据均是粗略估计(参考) 能源最佳组合 电力来源构成展望图【来源】日本经济贸易产业部门召开的第8届长期能源供应和需求前景小组委员会的文件Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Ene

49、rgy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015【Number of evacuees from Fukushima】 About 157 thousand About 119thousand（December 2012） （Jan 2015）【Number of evacuees from the evacuation zone】 About 110 thousand About 73 thousand（December 2012） （Jan 2015）(Ref.) Assistanc

50、e of Fukushima evacuees from both aspects of quick return and quick launch of new lifeEvacuation order areas of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (as of October 2014)v【福岛疏散人员总数】 约 15.7 万人 约11.9 万人 （2012年12月） （2015年1月）【核撤离区疏散人员总数】 约11万人 约73万人 （2012年12月） （2015年1月）(参考) 帮助福岛疏散人员快速返回家园，重新开始新生活解除疏散命令

51、并返回的措施扩大援助建设新生活安全和消除焦虑的措施（减少放射性辐射/进行健康咨询） 对返回人员进行额外补偿通过补贴加速福岛重建，从而为返回人员改善居住环境 去污工作后仍将去污与重建及政府政策相结合通过与市领导和当地居民对话实现实体化的解除疏散命令新生活所必需的额外补偿在疏散区内部或外部建立重建中心鉴于未来去污工作等几点考虑如何落实区域重建及去污工作通过与市领导和当地居民对话在广阔区域内实现实体化中期和长期愿景福岛核电站的疏散令区域 (截至2014年10月)v10疏散命令准备解除的区域 （年累计剂量：20mSv/每年）本土居民禁止返回的区域 （年累计剂量： 20mSv/每年50mSv/每年）本土

52、居民很长一段时间不能返回的区域 （年累计剂量：50mSv/每年 ）Measures for lifting of evacuation orders and returnExpansion of assistance for launching new lifeMeasures for safety and removing anxieties（Reduction of radiation exposure/health consultation） Additional compensation for returnImproving environment for return by usi

53、ng Subsidy for Accelerating Fukushima ReconstructionDecontamination in collaboration with the reconstruction and policy measures after the decontamination workMaterialization of lifting of evacuation orders through dialogues with host municipalities and local residentsAdditional compensation necessa

54、ry for new lifeDeveloping reconstruction centers in or out of the evacuation zoneConsidering how to implement regional construction and decontamination work in light of future perspectives of decontamination business, etc.Materialization of mid and long term vision in a wide area through dialogues w

55、ith host municipalities and residentsHirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2015, June, 2015Period up to the completion of missioning measures (30 to 40

56、years in the future)Phase 3Efforts to stabilize the NPPPhase 1Phase 2Period up to the start of the fuel removal from the spent fuel pool (within 2 years)Period up to the start of the fuel debris removal (within 10 years)Fuel removal from Spent Fuel PoolsFuel debris removal from Unit 1- 3 Installatio

57、n of fuel debris removal equipmentDose reduction, Leakage identification &Stop leakageFuel debrisremovalPresentUnit 1Unit 4（Removal was complete）Steps for Spent Fuel Removal ;Rubble Removal & Dose ReductionInstalling Fuel Handling MachineFuel RemovalUnit 2Unit 3Preparing for rubble removalDose reduc

58、tion is underwayRubble removal & dose reduction is underwayCold shutdown achieved Achieve cold shutdown Significantly reduce radiation releases December 2011November 2013December 202130 to 40 years in the future(Ref.) Mid-and-Long Term Roadmap towards the missioningThe current Roadmap was revised in

59、 June, 2013.The Government of Japan is now in the process of the revision, taking account of the “Strategic Plan” which NDF is developing.直到退役措施完成(未来30至40年)阶段 3稳固核电站的努力阶段 1阶段 2直到开始从乏燃料池移出燃料(2年内)直到开始燃料碎片移出(10年内)从乏燃料池移出燃料燃料碎片 从单元 1- 3移出装载燃料碎片移出设备剂量减少, 泄露识别&防止泄露燃料碎片移出目前单元1单元4（移出完成）乏燃料移出步骤;碎片移出 & 剂量减少装载

60、燃料机械手燃料移出单元2单元3准备碎片移出剂量减少进行中碎片移出和剂量减少进行中 实现冷停堆 实现冷停堆极大减少辐射释放2011.122013.112021.12未来30-4年(参考) 中长期路线退役路线图当前的路线于2013年6月修订。日本政府在修订过程中考虑了NDF“战略计划”。11Hirobumi Kayama, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japans Current Nuclear Energy Policy, Joint Japan-IAEA Nuc