全球运营管理讲座newgom7scm1课件

1、GOM7Supply Chain Mgmt1GOM7供应链管理 1A Can of CokeSmeltingRollingCan MakingLabelFillingDistributionRetailingThere are more opportunities in better management of global supply chainsthan you think一罐可乐澳大利亚矾土矿冶炼辊压制罐贴标签填装分销零售一个英国家庭的冰箱改进全球供应链管理的机会之多超乎想象A Can of CokeSmeltingRollingCan MakingLabelFillingDistri

2、butionRetailingA British HouseholdRefrigeratorTime in the Pipeline319 Days3 Hours of “Actual Work”一罐可乐澳大利亚矾土矿冶炼辊压制罐贴标签填装分销零售一个英国家庭的冰箱流程时间319 天“实际工作” 3 小时A Can of CokeWhy 319 days to do 3 hours of work?Production is batched at every stageTransport is batched at every stageProduct goes through an aver

3、age of 14 storage lots and warehousesEvery step (plants, transports, warehouses, sales.)Is maximizing its own operational efficiencyIs this too much local optimization and not enoughglobal optimization?一罐可乐为什么319天做3个小时的工作？ 每个阶段批量生产 每个阶段批量运输 每件产品平均经过14次存储和入库每一步骤（工厂、运输、仓储、销售）都在最大限度地提高其运转效率 是不是局部最优化过多而

4、全球最优化不足？SC ResponsivenessConsumers Making the supply chains more responsiveIs not easyMultiple partiesLagged & distorted information flowsVariability and unpredictabilityImbalance Specially for supply chains across national boundaries供应链的响应能力客户 提高供应链的响应能力不容易 多方面 信息流滞后、扭曲 可变性和不可预测性 失衡 特别是跨国供应链SC Resp

5、onsivenessConsumers What can we do?Coordinate theSupply ChainRedesign the Supply ChainManage theDemand Avoid the“Bullwhip” Effect供应链的响应能力客户 怎么办？协调供应链重新设计供应链需求管理 避免 “皮鞭” 效应SC ResponsivenessThe “Bull whip” EffectOrder variability tends to increase as we move up the supply chainlike the “bull whip”CONS

6、UMERSThe “Beer Game” example供应链的响应能力“皮鞭” 效应沿类似于皮鞭的供应链上移时，定单的可变性呈上升趋势 客户“啤酒游戏” 示例SC ResponsivenessCoordinate the supply chain1. Share More InformationPOS DataForecasts (share and do jointly)Schedules (share and do collaboratively)供应链的响应能力协调供应链1. 增加共享信息 供应产品（POS） 数据 预测（共同分享与共同进行） 供应链计划（共同分享与协作进行）SC Re

7、sponsivenessCoordinate the supply chain2. Change Controls in the ChannelVendor Managed InventoryConsignment Stocks“Sell-through”SupplierSupplierSupplier供应链的响应能力协调供应链2. 改变渠道控制卖方管理的存货代销存货“零售量”供应商供应商供应商Consumers Intra-Operation Initiative3. Create More Operational FlexibilityInvest in postponementIncre

8、ase modularityShare platforms / Common componentsReduce changeover costs (and batch sizes)Reduce weight of capacity utilization as KPI供应链的响应能力客户运营内部举措3. 创造更多的运营灵活性 延期方面的投资 增加模化程度 共享平台/共用元件 减少转换成本（和批量大小） 降低作为关键绩效指标（KPI）设备利用 率的重要性 Consumers What can we do?Redesign the Supply ChainManage theDemand Fit

9、the supply chain toProducts “clock speed”供应链的响应能力客户 怎么办？协调供应链减少供应链需求管理 使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率”相适应The root cause of the problemsplaguing many supply chainsis a mismatch betweenthe type of product and the type of supply chainSC Responsiveness供应链的响应能力造成问题困扰许多供应链的根本原因在于产品类型和供应链类型不相匹配SC Responsiveness“Functional

10、” vs. “Innovative” productsDifferent “Clock Speeds”“Functional”“Innovative”GasolinePrintersPencilsDigital camerasCerealsFashion apparelFit the Supply Chain to Products “Clockspeed”MatchMismatchMismatchMatchFunctional Products Innovative ProductsPhysically EfficientSupply ChainMarket ResponsiveSupply

11、 Chain供应链的响应能力“功能” 产品对 “创新” 产品的不同 “时钟速率”“功能” 产品“创新” 产品汽油 打印机铅笔数码照相机谷物时装服饰使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率”相适应匹配不匹配不匹配匹配功能产品 创新产品物理效率高的供应链市场响应型的供应链 SC ResponsivenessFunctional(Predictable Demand)Innovative(Unpredictable Demand)Aspects of DemandProduct life cycleMore than 2 years3 months to 1 yearContribution margin*5%

12、 to 20%20% to 60%Product varietyLow (10 to 20 variants per category)High (often millions of variants per category)Average margin of error in the forecast at the time production is committed10%40% to 100%Average stockout rate1% to 2%10% to 40%Average forced end of season markdown as percentage of ful

13、l price0%10% to 25%Lead time required for made-to-order products6 months to 1 year1 day to 2 weeks*The contribution margin equals price minus variable cost divided by price and is expressed as a percentage 供应链的反应能力功能型(可预测需求)创新型(需求不可预测)各需求方面产品寿命周期2年以上3 个月到1年边际收益*5% 至 20%20% 至 60%产品多样性低 (每一类别10 至 20种)

14、高 (往往每一类别数百万种)委托产品时预报误差平均幅度10%40% 至 100%平均脱销率1% 至 2%10% 至 40%被迫终止季节性降价平均占全价百分比0%10% 至 25%按单产品所需的前导时间6 个月至 1 年1 日至 2 周*边际收益等于价格减去各项成本，再除以价格，用百分率表示。SC ResponsivenessPhysically Efficient ProcessMarket-Responsive ProcessPrimary purposeSupply predictable demand efficiently at the lowest possible costResp

15、ond quickly to unpredictable demand in order to minimize stockouts, forced markdowns, and obsolete inventoryManufacturing focusMaintain high average utilization rateDeploy excess buffer capacityInventory strategyGenerate high turns and minimize inventory throughout the chaindeploy significant buffer

16、 stocks of parts or finished goodsLead time focusShorten lead time as long as it doesnt increase costInvest aggressively in ways to reduce lead timeApproach to choosing suppliersSelect primarily for cost and qualitySelect primarily for speed, flexibility, and qualityProduct-design strategyMaximize p

17、erformance and minimize costUse modular design in order to postpone product differentiation for as long as possible供应链的响应能力物理效率过程市场响应过程基本目的以最低成本有效供应可预测需求对不可预测的需求快速响应，以便最大限度地减少库存匮乏、被迫降价和过时存货制造重心保持高度的平均利用率配置超额缓冲能力库存战略生成高周转率，实现整个供应链库存最小化配置大量部件及成品缓冲库存前导时间焦点在不增加成本的前提下尽量缩短前导时间在缩短前导时间的途径上进取性投资选择供应商的方法以成本和质

18、量为首选以速度、灵活性和质量为首选产品设计战略绩效最大化，成本最小化采用模块设计，尽可能推迟产品异质化SC ResponsivenessGet out of the upper right hand cellToothpaste is a product category in which a move to the leftfrom innovative to functionalmakes sense.Yet because the industry has largely retained its emphasis on a physically efficient supply cha

19、in, most computer companies find themselves firmly positioned in the upper right-hand cell.A lean, efficient distribution channel is exactly right for functional cars but totally inappropriate for innovative cars, which require inventory buffers to absorb uncertainty in demand.供应链的响应能力脱离右侧单元上游牙膏是一个产

20、品类别，在这个类别中向左侧移动即从创新型移向功能型是合理的。但是，由于该产业大都保持以物理效率供应链为重点，多数计算机公司发现自己牢牢地处于右侧单元上游的位置。精益、高效的分销渠道对功能型轿车来说完全正确，但是对创新型轿车来说则根本不适用，因其需要库存缓冲来吸收需求中的不确定性。SC ResponsivenessResponsive supply of innovative productsThe first step is simply to accept that uncertainty is inherent in innovative productsOnce a company ha

21、s accepted the uncertainty of demand, it can employ three coordinated strategies to manage that uncertainty:It can continue to strive to reduce uncertaintyfor example, by finding sources of new data that can serve as leading indicators or by having different products share common components as much

22、as possible so that the demand for components becomes more predictable. 供应链的响应能力创新产品的反应性供应第一步只不过是接受这一事实：不确定性是创新产品所固有的。一旦一个公司承认了需求的不确定性，它就可以运用三种相互协调的策略对这种不确定性予以管理：它可以继续致力于降低不确定性譬如通过找到可以充当前导指标的新数据来源；或者通过让不同产品共享尽可能多的共用元件，以提高元件需求的可预测性。 SC ResponsivenessIt can avoid uncertainty by cutting lead times and

23、increasing the supply chains flexibility so that it can produce to order or at least manufacture the product at a time closer to when demand materializes and can be accurately forecast.Once uncertainty has been reduced or avoided as much as possible, it can hedge against the remaining residual uncer

24、tainty with buffers of inventory or excess capacityNew movement: mass customization (building the ability to customize a large volume of products and deliver them at close to mass-production pricesSport Obermeyers approach, which has been called accurate response, has cut the cost of both overproduc

25、tion and underproduction in halfenough to increase profits by 60%.供应链的响应能力它可以通过缩短前导时间和增加供应链的灵活性来避免不确定性，这样，它就可以按订单生产，或者至少可以在临近需求实现并可进行准确预报的时间点上制造产品。一旦不确定性得到尽可能的减少或避免，它就可以通过利用库存缓冲力或超剩余产能来防范残余的不确定性。新发展：大量定制化（培养大量产品的定制化能力，并以接近批量生产的价格发货）奥伯迈耶体育用品公司采用的方法，即所谓精确响应，将生产过剩和生产不足的成本都降低了一半足以将利润提高60%。The intangible

26、 costs of coordination include the cost of inventory meant to ensure that products are available.Reason 1: managers typically place orders with their own suppliers before they receive their “customers” orders, so they must forecastor guesshow much demand there will be for which of their large variet

27、y of items. Sport Obermeyer places its orders in November, but only receives its first orders from retailers in March, all for a selling season that begins in SeptemberReason 2: The organizations in supply chain often do not share information about sales forecasts; instead, each level of the supply

28、chain uses finished goods inventory to try to have on hand what is needed for their customers: each supplier makes extra orders “just-in-case,” swelling raw materials and finished goods inventories. Because they pass orders up and down the supply chain with lots of guessing, they (in addition) tend

29、to exaggerate small changes seen at the consumer level-just as in a large game of telephone in which each person whispers the message they hear to the next person, but the message become highly garbled after a fairly short series of transmissionsSketch of Sport Obermeyer Timing of Operations and Ord

30、ers Throughout the Year协调方面的无形成本包括为确保产品供应而付出的库存成本理由 1: 经理人一般在他们收到“客户”订单之前向自己的供应商提出订单，因此，他们必须预测或者猜测其种类繁多的货品当中到底哪一种商品有需求、需求量有多大。奥伯迈耶体育用品公司在11月份提出订单，但直到次年3月才收到首批零售商的订单，全部是为9月份开始的销售季节订的货。理由 2: 供应链上的各个单位一般不共享销售预测信息；而供应链的每一层都尽量利用成品库存保证现货以应客户所需：每个供应商都超额订购只为“以防万一”，使得原材料和成品存货猛增。由于在供应链中向上和向下传递订单时带有大量的猜测因素，他们（

31、还）倾向于夸大发生在客户层的微小变化就象一场大型的电话游戏，每个人都把自己听到的信息悄声传给下一个人，但是经过短短的一段传递之后，原来的信息已经面目全非了。奥伯迈耶体育用品公司全年运作和订单时间选择略图November(previous year)NovemberMarchAugustSeptemberFebruary Far East Take orders Make fabric Assemble clothes Deliver to Colorado Colorado Design clothes Make forecasts of sales and hot styles Order

32、textiles and styles Las Vegas show Warehouse Distribution to retailers American retailers Make orders to Sport O Retail season11月（上一年）11月3月8月9月2月 远东 接订单 制作面料 制衣 发往科罗拉多 科罗拉多 设计服装 销量和热门款式预测 订购纺织品和款式 拉斯维加斯展销会 仓库 分销给零售商 美国零售商 向奥伯麦耶公司 提出订单 零售季节SC ResponsivenessConsumers What can we do?Redesign the Supply

33、 ChainManage theDemand 供应链的响应能力客户 怎么办？协调供应链重新设计供应链需求管理运用动态定价和高度协调的市场推广手段SC ResponsivenessConsumers SummaryCoordinate theSupply ChainRedesign the Supply ChainManage theDemand Avoid the“Bullwhip” Effect Watch the“Clockspeed”Manage the “Yield”供应链的响应能力客户小结协调供应链重新设计供应链需求管理避免 “皮鞭” 效应 观察 “时钟速率” 管理 “产出”SC R

34、esponsivenessA Simple RuleRegard Inventory Velocity as aKey Performance Indicator (KPI)For everyone in the chain供应链的响应能力客户一条简单规则：将存货速度视为供应链上每个人的一项关键绩效指标 (KPI)Global IssuesDuties and drawbackTaxesExchange ratesTransfer pricingLocal content and offset tradeMultiple transport modes全球性的问题关税和进口退税税收汇率转让价当

35、地含量和补偿贸易联运方式Typical Types of AnalysesManufacturing/Services StrategyHow many plants do I need?Where should each plant be located?What products should each make?What process technologies should each have and how much of each process is needed?What part of the world should each plant serve?典型的分析类型制造/服

36、务策略我需要多少工厂？每个工厂设在哪儿？每个厂应该制造什么产品？每个厂应该有什么样的工艺技术，每个工艺需要多长时间？每个工厂应该面向世界哪个地区服务？Typical Types of AnalysesSupply Base Design / Vendor ConsolidationHow do I simultaneously perform supplier selection for all the parts in the same commodity group?How many suppliers is best and which suppliers should send whi

37、ch parts to which plants?OutsourcingWhat parts of my supply chain should I keep “in-house” and what parts to outsource?What if a third party has a higher variable cost but a lower fixed cost than in-house production?典型的分析类型供应基地设计/卖方合并我如何从同一商品组中同时选择所有零部件的供应商？有多少最佳供应商，哪些供应商应把哪些零部件发给哪些工厂？外购我应该把我的供应链上的哪

38、些部分留在“内部”，哪些部分进行外购？如果有第三方的可变成本比内部生产高而固定成本较低，那该怎么办？Typical Types of AnalysesNew Product Pipeline DesignHow should I fit the new product into my current supply chain?Should I single or multiple source this product?How much do my fixed costs affect this decision?What is the cross-over point to open up

39、a second and third source of supply?Mergers and AcquisitionsConstantly redesigning the global flow典型的分析类型新产品的传输渠道设计我该如何把这个新产品安放到现有的供应链上？这个产品需要单渠道供应源还是多渠道供应源？我的固定成本对这一决定的影响有多大？开辟第二和第三供应源的交叉点是什么？并购不断地重新设计全球性的流动。Supply Chain DisruptionsAnalyze the effects of strategic disruptionsUnexpected loss/change

40、of a supply chain partnerWays to mitigate the threatWhat are the key questions and issues供应链中断分析战略性中断的影响供应链伙伴的意外损失/变更减少威胁的办法主要疑问和议题LIST OF MAJOR COST CATEGORIES FOR A GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINManufacturing Costs:Purchased Materials; Labor; Equipment Charge (fixed), Suppliers MarginMovement Costs:Transport

41、ation cost; Inventory in Pipeline and Safety Stock Cost; DutyIncentive Costs/Subsidies:Taxes and SubsidiesIntangible Costs:(Conformance) Quality Costs; Product Adaptation or Performance Costs; Coordination CostsOverhead CostsTotal Current Landed CostsSensitivity to Long-term Changes:Productivity and

42、 Wage Changes; Exchange Rate Changes; Product Design; Core Competence全球供应链的主要成本类别清单制造成本：采购原料；劳动力；设备费用（固定）；供应商的毛利移动成本：运输成本；经济订货批量和安全储备成本；关税奖励成本/补贴：税金和补贴无形成本：(一致性) 质量成本；产品适应性或性能成本；协调成本运营（间接）成本现行离岸总成本对长期变化的灵敏度：生产率和工资变化；汇率变化；产品设计；核心竞争力Comparison of International and Domestic Supply Chains for One Shoe C

43、ompanyThe PW. Minor company made prescription-ready comfort shoes for sick feet in sixty-six size-width variations. The costs were computed in 1985, when the “All In New York” shoes were sold at retail for $80 a pair. The foreign option shoes (slightly inferior materials and less hand-fitting) were

44、to retail for $50, to be sold to dealers for $21, and to be covered by Medicare. Using the table to guide evaluation of the options is enlightening* For all NY option, the $1.33 in inventory cost per shoe is included in manufacturing overhead* The inventory figures for these options are calculated f

45、rom a simple model assuming a 98% fill rate is required in New York. 一家鞋业公司的国际和国内供应链比较PW. Minor 公司为脚病患者制造休闲处方鞋，计有66种宽度尺寸。成本计算于1985年，当时 “全部在纽约” 的零售鞋价为80美元/双。供国外选用的鞋（材质和手感稍差）的零售价为50美元/双，卖给经销商的价格是21美元/双，且属于 “老年保健医疗” （Medicare）范围。 以下表为指导对各种选择项进行评估很有启发性。*在 “全部在纽约” 一项中，每双鞋的制造费用含1.33美元的库存成本。*根据一个假定在纽约需要98%

46、的供货率的简单模型对这些选项的存货量进行计算。Order-to-deliveryLead timeManufacturing cost:Duty plus transportInventory per pair of shoes:Overhead:Delivered cost:Selling price to dealers:Annual volume (pairs)All in New York Uppers Labor = $3.15 Materials = $7.8 Soles & assembly Labor = $3.04 Materials = $2.56 Overhead = $

47、6.00* (Incl. inventory) Finished goods inventory 65,000 pairs1-2 days 6000 dealers $16.00 - $1.33 $4.77 $23.93 $45.00 275,000 Upper in Taiwan Uppers Labor = $.13 Materials = $5.30 Transport (=.36) Inventory: 27,031* pairs Soles & assembly Labor = $2.99 Materials = $2.242 weeks 100 Dealers $10.66 $3.6 $.93 $0 $11.95 $2