世界核工业的发展的现状及趋势

1、.：.；The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2021With Particular Emphasis on Economic IssuesByMycle SchneiderIndependent Consultant, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris (France) Project CoordinatorSteve ThomasProfessor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University (UK)Antony FroggattIndependent Consultant,

2、London (UK)Doug KoplowDirector of Earth Track, Cambridge (USA)Modeling and Additional Graphic Design Julie HazemannDirector of EnerWebWatch, Paris (France)Paris, August 2021Commissioned byGerman Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety(Contract n UM0901290) AbouttheAut

3、hors Mycle Schneider is an independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy based inParis. He founded the Energy Information Agency WISE-Paris in 1983 and directed it until 2003.Since 1997 he has provided information and consulting services to the Belgian Energy Minister,the French

4、and German Environment Ministries, the International Atomic Energy Agency,Greenpeace, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Worldwide Fundfor Nature, the European Commission, the European Parliaments Scientific and TechnologicalOption Assessment Panel and its General Di

5、rectorate for Research, the Oxford Research Group,and the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety. Since 2004 he has been incharge of the Environment and Energy Strategies lecture series for the International MSc in ProjectManagement for Environmental and Energy Engineering Prog

6、ram at the French Ecole des Mines inNantes. In 1997, along with Japans Jinzaburo Takagi, he received the Right Livelihood Award,also known as the “Alternative Nobel Prize.Antony Froggatt works as independent European energy consultant based in London.Since 1997 Antony has worked as a freelance resea

7、rcher and writer on energy and nuclear policyissues in the EU and neighboring states. He has worked extensively on EU energy issues forEuropean Governments, the European Commission and Parliament, environmental NGOs,commercial bodies and media. He has given evidence to inquiries and hearings in the

8、Parliamentsof Austria, Germany and the EU. He is a part time senior research fellow at the Royal Institute ofInternational Affairs Chatham House in London.Mr. Froggatt works intensively with environmental groups across Europe, particularly on energymarkets and policy and helped to establish a networ

9、k on energy efficiency. He is a regular speakerat conferences, universities and training programs across the region.Prior to working freelance Antony worked for nine years as a nuclear campaigner and co-coordinator for Greenpeace International.Steve Thomas is Professor for energy policy at the Publi

10、c Services International Research Unit(PSIRU), University of Greenwich, where he has been senior researcher since 2001.Mr. Thomas holds a BSc (honors) degree in Chemistry from Bristol University and has beenworking in energy policy analysis since 1976. His main research interests are reforms of ener

11、gyindustries, economics and policy towards nuclear power, and corporate policies of energy industrycompanies. Recent clients include Public Services International, the European Federation of PublicService Unions, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (USA), Energywatch (UK) andGreenpeace Inte

12、rnational.Doug Koplow founded Earth Track in 1999 to more effectively integrate information on energysubsidies. For the past 20 years, Mr. Koplow has written extensively on natural resource subsidiesfor organizations such as the Global Subsidies Initiative, the National Commission on EnergyPolicy, t

13、he Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP), Greenpeace, the Alliance to Save Energy, and the USEnvironmental Protection Agency. He has analyzed numerous government programs and madeimportant developments in subsidy valuation techniques.Mr

14、. Koplow holds an MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration and aBA in economics from Wesleyan University.ContactsMycle SchneiderPhone: +33-1-69 83 23 79: mycleorange.frAntony FroggattPh: +44-20-79 23 04 12E: a.froggattbtinternetSteve ThomasDoug KoplowPh: +44-208 331 9056Ph: +1

15、-617-661 4700E: stephen.thomasgreenwich.ac.uk E:dkoplowM.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20212ContentsExecutiveSummaryandConclusions5I.Introduction 8II.1.OverviewofOperation,PowerGeneration,AgeDistribution 8II.2.InternationalNuclearExpansionScenarios12II.3.Overv

16、iewofCurrentNewbuild14II.4.OverviewofPotentialNewcomerCountries 21II.5.StatusandTrendsinNuclearManufacturingCapacities 27II.6.StatusandTrendsinNuclearCompetence 30III.EconomicAnalysis 40III.1.Introduction40 III.1.1.Problemsofestimatingandcomparingnuclearcosts 41 III.1.2.GenerationIII+plants 42III.2.

17、TheDeterminantsofNuclearEconomics44III.3.FixedCosts45 III.3.1.Constructioncosts 45 III.3.2.Operatingcosts 61 III.3.3.Decommissioningcosts 63 III.3.4.Lifetime 63III.4.ImplicationsforExistingandFutureReactors 64 III.4.1.Existingreactors 65 III.4.2.Reactorsunderconstruction 65 III.4.3.Reactorsonwhichco

18、nstructionhasstopped 66 III.4.4.Futureorders 66III.5.NuclearLiabilityIssues67III.6.TheSubsidyIssue70 III.6.1.Overviewofsubsidiestonuclearenergy 70 III.6.2.Commonformsofsupportaroundtheworld 71 III.6.3.SubsidiestoexistingreactorsintheUSA 76 III.6.4.SubsidiestotheUKsExistingNuclearPowerPlants 81 III.6

19、.5.TheFuture 88IV.1.Africa 88IV.2.Americas89IV.3.Asia93IV.4.Europe98 IV.4.1.NuclearPowerinWesternEurope 99 IV.4.2.NuclearPowerinCentralandEasternEurope 108IV.5.RussiaandtheFormerSovietUnion 111Annex1:StatusofNuclearPowerintheWorld(1stAugust2021) 114Annex2:NuclearReactorsintheWorld“UnderConstruction(

20、1stAugust2021) 115Annex3:PotentialNuclearNewcomerCountries,ResearchReactorsandGridSize 117Annex4:TimetableofEventsatOlkiluoto3 118M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20213NoteTheauthorswishtothankAmoryB.Lovins,ChairmanoftheRockyMountainInstitute,USA,forhisextremel

21、yusefulcommentsonadraftversionofthereport.ThanksalsotoMaryB.Davisforhercarefulproofreading.However,theresponsibilityforanyremainingerrorsremainswiththeauthors.Theprojectcoordinatorwishestoexpresshissinceregratitudetohiscoauthorsfortheirinvaluablecontributionsandcreativethinking.Thereportrepresentsth

22、eperspectiveandopinionofthecontractoranddoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheorderer(GermanFederalMinistryforEnvironment,NatureConservationandReactorSafety).M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20214Executive Summary and ConclusionsThe future of the nuclear ener

23、gy industry is subject to a large number of media reports,study projects, expert meetings and political debates. Much of the published data is basedon speculation rather than on an in-depth analysis of nuclear energys industrial history,current operating status and trends.The World Nuclear Industry

24、Status Report 2021 provides the reader with the basicquantitative and qualitative facts on the nuclear power plants in operation, underconstruction and in planning phases throughout the world. A detailed overview assessesthe economic performance of past and current nuclear projects.As of 1st August

25、2021 there are 435 nuclear reactors operating in the world, nine less thanin 2002. There are 52 units listed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as“under construction. At the peak of the nuclear industrys growth phase in 1979 therewere 233 reactors being built concurrently. Even at the

26、end of 1987, there were still120 reactors in process. Much has changed. For the first time since commercial use ofnuclear energy began in the middle of the 1950s no new nuclear plant was connected to thegrid in 2021. In fact, no start-up has been reported for the past two years, since Cernavoda-2was

27、 connected to the grid on 7 August 2007, after 24 years of construction.In 1989 a total of 177 nuclear reactors had been operated in what are now the 27 EUMember States, but as of 1st August 2021 only 144 units were in operation. Today theworldwide operating reactors total 370,000 megawatts (370 GW)

28、, about 1,600 MW1 lessthan one year ago.In 2007 nuclear power plants generated about 2,600 TWh2 and provided 14% of theworlds electricity. After an unprecedented drop in electricity generation of 2% in 2007,nuclear power plants output lost another half percentage point in 2021. Nuclear powerprovided

29、 5.5% of the commercial primary energy production and about 2% of the finalenergy in the world, and has trended downwards for several years.Twenty-seven of the 31 countries operating nuclear power plants maintained (23) ordecreased (4) their share of nuclear power within the electricity mix in 2021

30、relative to2007. Four countries (Czech Republic, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia) increased theirshare.The average age of the operating nuclear power plants in the world is 25 years. Somenuclear utilities envisage reactor lifetimes of 40 years or more. Considering the fact thatthe average age of all 12

31、3 units that have already been closed is about 22 years, thedoubling of the operational lifetime seems rather optimistic. However, we have assumed anaverage lifetime of 40 years for all operating and in-construction reactors in ourcalculations of how many plants would be shut down year by year. The

32、exercise makespossible an evaluation of the minimum number of plants that would have to come on-lineover the next decades in order to maintain the same number of operating plants.In addition to the 52 units currently under construction3, 42 reactors (16,000 MW)4 wouldhave to be planned, built and st

33、arted up by 2021 one every month and a half and anadditional 192 units (170,000 MW) over the following 10-year period one every 19 days.1 The equivalent of an EPR (European Pressurized Water Reactor), as under construction in Finland andFrance.2Terawatthours or billion kWh.3In contrast to earlier sc

34、enarios, we have considered that all units currently listed by the IAEA as “underconstruction will be connected to the grid by 2021.M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20215In a new “PLEX5 Scenario we have modeled the situation taking into account not only thestar

35、t-up of all units currently under construction, but also the license renewal as ofAugust 2021 of 54 US and some other nuclear reactors6. Even with license renewals, thenumber of units in operation would never again reach the historical peak of 444 in 2002.By 2021, the number of operating units in th

36、e world would be 10 short of the current level,though the installed capacity would increase by 9,600 MW. In the following decade anadditional 174 reactors or about 152,000 MW would still have to be replaced to break evenwith the current nuclear fleet in the world.Even if Finland and France each buil

37、ds a reactor or two, China goes for an additional20 plants and Japan, Korea or Eastern Europe add a few units, the overall worldwide trendwill most likely be downwards over the next two decades. With extremely long lead timesof 10 years and more, it will be practically impossible to maintain, let al

38、one increase thenumber of operating nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. The one exception to thisoutcome would be if operating lifetimes could be substantially increased beyond 40 yearson average; there is currently no basis for such an assumption.For practically all of the potential nuclea

39、r newcomers, it remains unlikely that fissionpower programs can be implemented any time soon within the required technical, political,economic framework. None of the potential new nuclear countries has proper nuclearregulations, an independent regulator, domestic maintenance capacity, and the skille

40、dworkforce in place to run a nuclear plant. It might take at least 15 years to build up thenecessary regulatory framework in countries that are starting from scratch.Furthermore, few countries have sufficient grid capacity to absorb the output of a largenuclear plant, an often-overlooked constraint.

41、 This means that the economic challenge tofinancing a nuclear plant would be exacerbated by the very large ancillary investmentsrequired in the distribution network.Countries with a grid size and quality that could apparently cope with a large nuclear plantin the short and medium term encounter an a

42、rray of other significant barriers. Theseinclude a hostile or passive government (Australia, Norway, Malaysia, Thailand);generally hostile public opinion (Italy, Turkey); international non-proliferation concerns(Egypt, Israel); major economic concerns (Poland); a hostile environment due toearthquake

43、 and volcanic risks (Indonesia); and a lack of all necessary infrastructure(Venezuela). Many countries face several of these barriers at the same time.Lack of a trained workforce and massive loss of competence are probably the mostdifficult challenges for proponents of nuclear expansion to overcome.

44、 Even France, thecountry with perhaps the strongest base of civilian nuclear competence, is threatened by asevere shortage of skilled workers. Demographics are a big cause: a large number ofbaby-boomers are approaching retirement about 40% of the nuclear staff of theworlds largest nuclear utility ED

45、F by 2021. Currently, a maximum of 300 nucleargraduates are available for some 1,200 to 1,500 open positions. An additional difficultystems from the fact that the number of nuclear graduates does not correspond at all to theavailability of new recruits for the nuclear industry. In the USA for exampl

46、e only aboutone quarter of the 2021 nuclear graduates planned to actually work in the industry or a4 Units currently under construction range from 32 MW to 1600 MW, with an average of 880 MW, roughlythe same as the average capacity of operating units with 855 MW. While it seems impossible to maintai

47、n theoperating number of nuclear reactors under these conditions until 2021, an additional sixteen 1,000 MW unitswould be sufficient to maintain the installed nominal capacity. All of these units would have to startconstruction over the coming year and all be completed in optimal construction times.

48、 This seems unlikelyconsidering the past experience but not impossible.5Plant Life Extension6Plus authorized lifetime extensions in the Netherlands, Spain and the UK.M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20216nuclear utility. Many prefer either to continue their stu

49、dies or to join the military or othergovernment and business sectors.The situation is similar or worse in most of the other nuclear countries.At least in the short term, severe manufacturing bottlenecks (only one facility in the world,Japan Steel Works, can cast large forgings for certain reactor pr

50、essure vessels) furtherhamper any practical nuclear revival.This report covers, in addition to the subjects in earlier editions, an economic analysis ofpast, present and likely future nuclear projects. While many industries experience decliningcosts as they move out their technological learning curv

51、e, the nuclear industry continues toface steadily increasing costs on existing construction and future cost estimates. TheMay 2021 nuclear investment cost estimate update by the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (MIT) simply doubled an earlier estimate from $2,000 to $4,000 overnightcost (excludi

52、ng financing) per installed kilowatt.In fact reality has already bypassed projections. The flagship EPR project at Olkiluoto inFinland, managed by the largest nuclear builder in the world, AREVA NP, has turned intoa financial fiasco. The project is more than three years behind schedule and at least

53、55%over budget, reaching a total cost estimate of 5 billion ($7 billion) or close to 3,100($4,400) per kilowatt.There are numerous ways by which governments have organized or tolerated subsidies tonuclear power. They range from direct or guaranteed government loans to publicly fundedresearch and dev

54、elopment (R&D). Direct ownership of subsidized nuclear fuel chainfacilities, government funded nuclear decommissioning and waste management, generouslimited liability for accidents and the transfer of capital costs to ratepayers via strandedcost rules or special rate-basing allowances are all common

55、 in many countries.The current international economic crisis is exacerbating many of the problems that theproponents of the nuclear energy option are facing. At this point, there is as yet no obvioussign that the international nuclear industry could eventually turn the empirically evidentdecline int

56、o a promising future.M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20217I. IntroductionThe future of the global nuclear industry is subject to extensive media speculation, industrialannouncements and political debate. However, there seems to be a widening gap between theind

57、ustrial reality with its current trends and the widespread perception of some sort of “nuclearrenaissance. In September 2021, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a pressrelease that perfectly illustrates the point: “The IAEA has revised upwards its nuclear powergeneration projection

58、s to 2030, while at the same time it reported that nuclears share of globalelectricity generation dropped another percentage point in 2007 to 14%. While the IAEA figurefor 2021 is not available yet, it is obvious that the relative significance of nuclear power in theglobal energy balance has continu

59、ed to decline.Are these just short-term tendencies rather than structural developments? What are the projectionsfor the role of nuclear power in world energy and how realistic are they? New units are being built,but will they be delivered in time and on budget? Will there be enough of them to replac

60、e the agingreactor fleet? These are questions that the World Nuclear Industry Status Report has analyzed inprevious years7 and analyzes in the present version.In addition, the German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety(BMU) has requested that the 2021 analysis inc