西方关闭商店之际大中华区消费如何反弹

1、GlobalEquitiesConsumerAll points EastHow Greater China consumption is rebounding as the West closes shopTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINALooking at global consumer brands, we see a clear path for sales to rebound in Asia but while that is encouraging, stores are mostly shut in Eu

2、rope and the USRead our comments on our China-exposed consumer coverage and please contact our analysts for callsChina FIFO, West in limboSome investors have been waiting to invest in global consumer stocks as and when COVID-19 cases peaked, which appears to have happened in many parts of Asia. A ma

3、jority of stores in mainland China are now open. There is clearly a pick-up in activity there, as evident in our mainland China resumption indicator (see China Strategy: tracking the resumption of work, 20 February 2020), and for many companies we cover, stabilization if not growth year-on-year coul

4、d be Aprils gift.Our strategists note that work resumption has improved significantly in the past five weeks in the mainland, and full resumption by the end of April appears possible (see Tracking the resumption of work: Part II, 27 March 2020). However, this is less the case in Macau and Hong Kong.

5、 In particular in the latter city there are worries about the second wave of infections and this led to more business closures in Hong Kong in late March. In Macau, gaming visitor numbers also remain very low. While Asia is broadly recouping, Europe is hopefully nearing its peak and the US may take

6、longer still (see Europe COVID19 tracker, 26 March 2020). The next focus is likely going to be the US with the number of cases expanding fast and the city of New York sadly setting records.Global or Asian stocks: take your pickIn our experience it is difficult to buy stocks in consumer discretionary

7、 when sales momentum is still decelerating. We list some of our bigger stocks under coverage in global luxury, cosmetics, sporting goods and food and explain what they are experiencing at present both in mainland China and elsewhere. Separately, we look at some of the key China-related stocks listed

8、 in Asia that are likely to benefit first from the China FIFO theme. In both cases, this is far from being an exhaustive list of our coverage but a relevant sample we hope youll find useful.Hello, is it me youre looking for? 2020 Institutional Investor surveyIf you value our service and insights, pl

9、ease voteII Research has acquired the Extel survey Voting extended click here to vote Some of us are in the office in Asia, many others in Europe and the US are working from home. Feel free to give us a shout, we will enjoy the distraction and certainly will try to help as best we can. Stay safe and

10、 hope to speak soon.30 March 2020Erwan RambourgGlobal Co-Head of Consumer and Retail Research HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:erwanrambourg erwanrambourg+1 212 525 8393Antoine Belge*Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail ResearchHSBC France, S.A. HYPERLINK mailto:antoine.belge antoine.bel

11、ge+33 1 56 52 43 47Karen Choi*Head of Consumer and Retail Research, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch HYPERLINK mailto:karen.choi karen.choi+82 2 3706 8781* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ q

12、ualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Research at:https:/ HYPER

13、LINK / Stock summary and analyst contact detailsStockTicker Rating Currency Price (26Target Upside/dMarket 2020e PE 2021e PE Covering AnalystEmailMarch)priceownsidecap (USDm)Global consumercompaniesAB InbevABI.BRReduceEUR42.4032.00-24.5%76,35815.612.2Carlos Laboy HYPERLINK mailto:carlos.a.laboy carl

14、os.a.laboyAmbevABEV3.SAReduceBRL12.8010.00-21.9%40,27318.618.6Carlos Laboy HYPERLINK mailto:carlos.a.laboy carlos.a.laboyKeringKERFPBuyEUR492.35705.0043.2%68,55018.016.0Antoine Belge* HYPERLINK mailto:antoine.belge antoine.belgeLMVHMCFPBuyEUR363.70510.0040.2%201,96523.620.0Antoine Belge* HYPERLINK m

15、ailto:antoine.belge antoine.belgeLOralORFPHoldEUR254.60280.0010.0%156,67430.628.0Jeremy Fialko*, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.fialko jeremy.fialkoAsia-listed consumer companiesAlibabaBABAUSBuyUSD195.32250.0028.0%523,98924.631.4Binnie Wong* HYPERLINK mailto:binnie.wong.hk binnie.wong.hkAmorePacific090

16、430KSBuyKRW178,000260,00046.1%8,47934.129.2Karen Choi* HYPERLINK mailto:karen.choi karen.choiAnta Sports2020HKBuyHKD56.8073.4029.2%19,79730.717.3Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hkChow Sang Sang116HKHoldHKD7.687.902.9%67149.77.39Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hkCh

17、ow Tai Fook1929HKHoldHKD5.466.5019.0%7,04312.026.2Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hkGinko8406TTBuyTWD137.00213.0055.5%42010.99.8Jeremy Chen* HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.cm.chen.tw jeremy.cm.chen.twJD.com IncJDUSBuyUSD42.0150.0019.0%63,31930.022.3Binnie Wong* HYPERLINK mailto:binnie.won

18、g.hk binnie.wong.hkKweichow Moutai600519CHBuyCNY1,064.921,317.0023.7%189,13328.925.4Katharine Song* HYPERLINK mailto:kathy.l.h.song kathy.l.h.songLi Ning2331HKBuyHKD20.0527.6037.7%6,34941.519.9Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hkMelco ResortsMLCOUSBuyUSD13.4424.8084.5%6,525107.015.6C

19、harlene Liu* HYPERLINK mailto:charlene.r.liu.sg charlene.r.liu.sgMidea Group000333CHHoldCNY49.0058.3019.0%48,39314.511.5Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hkPinduoduoPDDUSHoldUSD37.0135.00-5.4%100,600-49.1Binnie Wong* HYPERLINK mailto:binnie.wong.hk binnie.wong.hkShinsegae004170KSBuyK

20、RW 232,500.00 400,000.0072.0%1,8809.37.5Karen Choi* HYPERLINK mailto:karen.choi karen.choiTCI8436TTHoldTWD174.00190.009.2%69013.511.3Jeremy Chen* HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.cm.chen.tw jeremy.cm.chen.twTingyi322HKHoldHKD12.3013.7411.7%8,92328.223.5Darron Xue* HYPERLINK mailto:darron.xue darron.xueUni-Pr

21、esident1216TTBuyTWD65.8081.0023.1%12,39318.617.4Jeremy Chen* HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.cm.chen.tw jeremy.cm.chen.twWuliangye000858CHBuyCNY113.89159.6540.2%62,50120.417.3Katharine Song* HYPERLINK mailto:kathy.l.h.song kathy.l.h.songXtep International1368HKBuyHKD2.413.5045.2%78113.19.3York Pun*, CFA HYP

22、ERLINK mailto:yorkkypun.hk yorkkypun.hkYum ChinaYUMCUSBuyUSD45.0554.0019.9%16,92956.819.9Lina Yan* HYPERLINK mailto:linayjyan.hk linayjyan.hk*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., and is not registered / qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Source: HSBC estimates, company

23、data, priced as of 26 March 2020Global consumer companiesCarlos LaboyGlobal Beverage Head, LatAm Food AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:carlos.a.laboy carlos.a.laboy+1 212 525 6972Anthony BucaloAnalyst, Global Beverages HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:anthony.bucalo anth

24、ony.bucalo+1 212 525 1729Jeremy Fialko*, CFAHead of Consumer Staples Research, EuropeHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.fialko jeremy.fialko+44 20 7991 1562* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsErwan RambourgGl

25、obal Co-Head of Consumer and Retail ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:erwanrambourg erwanrambourg+1 212 525 8393Antoine Belge*Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail ResearchHSBC France, S.A. HYPERLINK mailto:antoine.belge antoine.belge+33 1 56 52 43 47Anne-Laure Bismuth*Analyst, Glo

26、bal Consumer and RetailHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:annelaure.bismuth annelaure.bismuth+44 20 7991 6587Alexis CooperAnalyst, Global Consumer and RetailHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:er er+1 212 525 4394Global beveragesAB Inbev (ABI BR, Reduce, TP EUR32.00, CMP EUR42.40)ABI is one of t

27、he companies that has meaningful exposure to China in our beverages coverage and has updated the market on the negative impact of COVID-19. ABI is the third largest player in Chinese beer and the leader in Chinas super-premium segment. ABI was the first company in our group to quantify the impact of

28、 COVID-19 in China in its 4Q19 earnings report. In that report, management cited that just in January and February alone, COVID-19 accounted for a negative USD285m impact on sales and USD170m impact on EBITDA. We expect March was equally as poor, if not worse, and April is unlikely to rebound quickl

29、y. Beer is a product dependent on socialization, especially in China, and we believe it will take some time for behavior patterns to normalize.Global cosmeticsLOral (OR FP, Hold, TP EUR280.00, CMP EUR254.60)At LOrals full year results (6 Feb) the group said that it expected to outperform the global

30、beauty market in 2020 and achieve another year of sales and profit growth. At that time, management pointed out that in previous such situations (SARS, MERS), consumption responded strongly after a period of disruption. In the groups registration document (published 20 March) it reiterated this view

31、, based on the proviso that the epidemic and consequent disturbance would not exceed a few months and that it followed a similar pattern to previous cases. Turning to China specifically, one of the defining features is its strength in e-commerce, which accounts for almost 50% of sales. In an intervi

32、ew with Le Monde (6 March), CEO Jean-Paul Agon noted that the groups online sales in China had increased very strongly in February. However, due to the increasing severity of restrictions to commerce, on 30 March the group suspended its full year guidance as measures to prevent the spread of coronav

33、irus will have a higher impact than forecast on the consumption of cosmetics and beauty products even though it noted encouraging signs of recovery in Chinese consumption. In the same release it also guided to Q1 sales declining 5%.Global luxuryKering (KER FP, Buy, TP EUR705.00, CMP EUR492.35)Kering

34、 released a voluntary announcement about COVID-19s impact on Q1 sales on Friday 20 March. The group expects Q1 sales (ending 31 March) to be down 13-14% in reported terms (down 15% in comparable terms) y-o-y. Out of its three main brands, we expect Gucci to have underperformed, Bottega Veneta to hav

35、e outperformed, and Saint Laurent to be somewhere in the middle. A trading statement is planned on 21 April after market close. The group expects Q2 to see revenue down sharply as local clienteles and tourism take a hit. Kering expects to post an operating margin decline for 1H20, though the group d

36、id not provide any guidance or expectations as to the impact. Encouraging mention of mainland China seeing lower declines as traffic metrics become less negative. We believe that mainland China at the peak of the crisis will have seen 85% y-o-y declines in early February and that declines are modera

37、ting by about 10 percentage points every week. On that basis, Kerings business in mainland China could stabilize at some stage in April provided there is no re-emergence of the virus.LVMH (MC FP, Buy, TP EUR510.00, CMP EUR363.70)When LVMH first reported results in January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic

38、 was just beginning to take off. Management sounded optimistic, believing that the coronavirus could have limited effects beyond Q1 20, notably as they were confident in the Chinese governments capacity to limit its* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/

39、 qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationseffects. To be fair, the world only had five days of data then. Since then, the virus has spread to other countries in Asia, Europe and the US, and its impact is likely to hit Q2 more than Q1. As you can see on our preview below, we expect LVMH to be among the

40、 best in class for luxury in Q1 with the key fashion and leather division supported by two strong powerhouses Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior to significantly gain share from peers. The group should post its 1Q trading statement early April.HSBCs LVMH 1Q trading statement previewQuarterly 202020192

41、020varLFLCurrency% Perimeter%Champagne & Wines4584856.0%4%92.0%0.0%Cognac & Spirits891846-5.0%-7%182.0%0.0%Fashion & Leather5,1114,625-9.5%-11.0%771.5%0.0%Perfumes & Cosmetics1,6871,594-5.5%-7%251.5%0.0%Selective Distribution3,5102,755-21.5%-23%531.5%0.0%Watches & Jewelry1,046852-18.5%-20%161.5%0.0%

42、Others-165-59-64.2%7%-21.5%120.0-72.7%BelmondTotal12,53811,100-11.5%-14.0%1951.6%120.01.0%Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesAsia-listed consumer companiesKaren Choi*Head of Consumer and Retail Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch HYPE

43、RLINK mailto:karen.choi karen.choi+82 2 3706 8781CosmeticsAmorePacific (090430 KS, Buy, TP KRW260,000, CMP KRW178,000)We hosted an AmorePacific domestic non-deal roadshow in mid-February at which the company shared the potential impact from the COVID-19 outbreak (see: AmorePacific: Buy: Whats on loc

44、al investors minds?, 13 February). Back then, AmorePacific highlighted that more than half of the stores in China were closed and the rest of the stores had shortened operating hours which will impact China sales. In addition, DFS sales, the largest and the most profitable* Employed by a non-US affi

45、liate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationschannel, will be impacted given it is heavily dependent on tourism flows.How long COVID-19 will last remains key. The company shared with investors that theyll continue to focus on e-commerce and multi-

46、brand shops in Korea, and luxury brands and e- commerce in China. With the unexpected outbreak, the companys shutdown of loss-making stores may accelerate, especially for Aritaum stores (Korea) and Innisfree stores (China), which should help drive margins. The company expects that the China sales de

47、cline narrowed in March. However, because the number of confirmed cases increased sharply from end-February in Korea, pure domestic channels, such as door-to-door, department stores and specialty stores, are likely to have sharper sales declines in March. Although digital channel continues to show p

48、ositive growth, offline channels are likely to take a big hit as consumers stay at home because of the outbreak. The news highlights that duty-free operators sales are down 40% y-o-y in Feb and even closed their stores at Gimpo Airport from mid-March (Chosun Biz, 19 March). In addition, department s

49、tore operators are seeing sales declines of more than 30% y-o-y during1-15 March (Skydaily, 19 March).Katharine Song* (S1700517120001)Head of A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limited HYPERLINK mailto:kathy.l.h.song kathy.l.h.song+86 21 6081 3807Food & beverageKweichow Moutai (600519

50、CH, Buy, TP RMB1,317.00, CMP RMB1,064.92)Moutai has confidence in reaching its original 10% revenue growth target for 2020 even after the COVID-19 outbreak. The company will publish its 2019 annual and 1Q20 results on 22 April.The company hasnt given any guidance on its 1Q20 numbers but hopes to hav

51、e a good start in 2020. Before the COVID-19 outbreak during the CNY, 80-90% of 1Q shipments were sell-outs (on the consumer side, not in channels). Wholesale prices this week were down to RMB2,000/bottle (from RMB2,400/bottle earlier this year) due to lower demand in the short term.Employed by a non

52、-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsDarron Xue* (S1700518110002) Analyst, A-share Food & Beverage and Pulp & Paper HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited HYPERLINK mailto:darron.xue darron.xue+86 755 8898 3407Employed by a non-US affilia

53、te of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsJeremy Chen*Head of Research, Taiwan HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:jeremy.cm.chen.tw jeremy.cm.chen.tw+886 2 6631 2866Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA)

54、 Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsKatharine Song* (S1700517120001)Head of A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limited HYPERLINK mailto:kathy.l.h.song kathy.l.h.song+86 21 6081 3807Distributors inventory levels are low at this moment, and the resumption

55、rate is about 60% for the big restaurant chain names. We expect recovery of the on-trade channel in 2Q will stimulate demand as Moutai is still the most recognized brand in the super premium baijiu sector.Tingyi (322 HK, Hold, TP HKD13.74, CMP HKD12.30)Tingyi announced its 2019 results 23 March and

56、COVID-19s impact on Q1 sales. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Chinese consumers spent most of their time indoors, leading to strong demand for instant noodles, particularly for mid-market noodle packets, but relatively weak beverage demand. Tingyi expects its beverage business to recover in 2H, if the

57、 epidemic eases in China. The company believes the growth of their noodle business (expected to see double- digit growth) will help offset the impact on the beverage business in Q1, though overall sales in Q1 should still struggle to achieve growth. Looking forward, the company expects beverage sale

58、s to recover in May assuming a fading impact of the virus. The company expects a single- digit growth rate for total revenue in 2020.Uni-President (1216 TT, Buy, TP TWD81.00, CMP TWD65.80)Uni-President (UPE) is the leading food and beverage company in Taiwan and has over 95% sales exposure to mainla

59、nd China and Taiwan. Amidst the coronavirus outbreak, we see stronger demand for instant noodles and bottled beverages as people stay home and avoid dining out. In fact, we believe sales of necessities should be relatively less affected.In addition, the falling raw material prices (ex. PET, flour, p

60、alm oil) are another tailwind for its margin outlook.For more on Uni-President, see our latest note Taiwan Consumer: Cutting forecasts to reflect rising COVID-19 impact on developed market demand (13 March 2020).Wuliangye (000858 CH, Buy, TP RMB159.65, CMP RMB113.89)Wuliangye will publish its 2019 a