智能与高效建筑的机会：如何在资本商品中发挥碳中和建筑的趋势

1、The Smart and Efficient Building OpportunityElectrify Me - How to play the trend to carbon neutral buildings in Capital GoodsThis 140 page report reviews what impact carbon reduction measures in buildings will have on markets in general and specifically on our stock coverage. Electrification, automa

2、tion and software are key tools to achieving carbon neutral buildings. Schneider (OW) is best positioned while the opportunity is most underappreciated at Rexel (OW). Overall, the higher capex vs lower opex trend should lift growth for Electrical Engineers with limited fossil exposure.Economics, reg

3、ulation and corporate ESG to drive carbon reduction in buildings: Buildings account for 39% of global CO2 emissions. Technologies to reduce this are available today and regulation is increasingly supportive. For companies pledging to become carbon neutral, buildings are a more straightforward way to

4、 make progress than other parts of their value chain.Incremental opportunities for many of our companies. Carbon neutral buildings require higher up-front capex in return for lower operating costs. Electrification is a path to reduce emissions as are upgraded HVAC systems, intelligent controls, LED/

5、connected lighting and replacement of gas heating. Integration of ev-charging and demand management systems also drive demand. The resulting complexity drives software use and may trigger M&A.What is the impact on growth? Our analysis shows that the core electrical markets have accelerated vs GDP gr

6、owth in recent periods while LED lighting has slowed with adoption already high. The drivers discussed could add 1-2% to annual growth over time with the highest growth in Building Automation (BMS). The impact on HVAC equipment is more difficult to assess given a potentially accelerated refurb marke

7、t but reduction in size.Schneider best positioned, Rexel least appreciated: Schneider has the most complete offering, focused strategy and strong market access with 2-3% outgrowth vs peers already visible. At Rexel the upside is not priced in. Siemens has the building blocks but has lagged on execut

8、ion while at ABB, the near-term opportunity in Electrification is more related to profitability. Legrand should benefit but misses out on the fastest-growing opportunities. Daikin (OW, covered by Tomohiko Sano) is the preferred stock in HVAC.Table 1: European Capital Goods companies discussed in det

9、ail this reportEurope Equity Research11 March 2020European Capital Goods Andreas Willi AC(44-20) 7134-4569 HYPERLINK mailto:andreas.p.willi andreas.p.williBloomberg JPMA W ILLI J.P. Morgan Securities plcYuxin Lin(44-20) 7742-3189 HYPERLINK mailto:yuxin.x.lin yuxin.x.linJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAndr

10、ew Wilson(44-20) 7742-6332 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.j.wilson andrew.j.wilsonJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAkash Gupta(44-20) 7742-7978 HYPERLINK mailto:akash.z.gupta akash.z.guptaJ.P. Morgan Securities plcMachinery, Heavy Industry Japan Tomohiko Sano(81-3) 6736-8625 HYPERLINK mailto:tomohiko.sano tomohik

11、o.sano JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Electrical Equipment & Multi- Industry North AmericaC. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFA (1-212) 622-6623 HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.tusa stephen.tusaJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSector Specialist (Sales & Trading) contact details:Bruna Haq - Sales and Trading(44-20) 7134-068

12、1 HYPERLINK mailto:bruna.haq bruna.haqCompanyAnalystRatingTPUpside/downsideCommentABBAndreas WilliUWSf2117%15% of sales exposed, benefit from Electrification, HVAC and chargingAlfa LavalAndrew WilsonNSkr22022%6% of sales exposed, heat exchangers in heat pumps/HVAC upgradeLandis+GyrAndreas WilliUWSf8

13、214%60-65% of sales exposed but limited demand benefitLegrandAndreas WilliN689%95% of sales exposed, benefit from ElectrificationRexelAndreas WilliOW1568%68% of sales exposed, benefit from electrification, value added servicesSignifyAndreas WilliUW2724%55% of sales exposed of which 15% connected lig

14、htingSchneiderAndreas WilliOW11036%50% of sales exposed, broad based exposure to favorable trendsSiemensAndreas WilliOW12860%17% of sales exposed, after Schneider most complete offeringSource: JPMorgan. As of March 10, 2020. Please note that all target prices are based on estimates prior to adjustme

15、nts for Covid-19 and the oil price crash.See page 141 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a co

16、nflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / As part of the work for this report, we have spoken to a number of industry experts. These include people at JPMorgan in

17、volved in the real estate business. We also spoke to experts at a number of commercial real estate firms and former executives of vendors of smart buildings solutions. We also interviewed a CEO of a BMS company and industry consultants. We integrate their assessment with our conclusions from the wor

18、k done for this report.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Executive summary 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Drivers still mostly about the money but that is changing 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 How to improve a buildings carbon footprint 5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Overview of companies discussed and their

19、 relevant exposure 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Overview of relevant markets, size and growth 7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Who offers what 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Solution offering vs best of breed 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Who will win? 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 What is the upside to growth 12 HYPERLINK l

20、_bookmark9 Stock conclusions 14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Valuation overview 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Growth analysis what is already visible? 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Growth 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Contribution to growth from Datacenter 19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Climate change and Capital Goo

21、ds investing 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Our ESG framework for the Capital Goods sector 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 A short overview - why climate change matters for investing 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 The response to climate change 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Climate change and buildings 26 HYPERLINK

22、 l _bookmark19 Efficiency trends observed 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 How to reduce emissions in buildings 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Regulation - 2020 an important year 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Building energy certification 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Carbon Neutral Buildings 32 HYPERLINK l _bookma

23、rk24 Climate change and stranded asset risks 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Specific building related regulation 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Market barriers why not more adoption despite attractive payback periods? 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Investment and financing for sustainable buildings 42 HYPERLINK

24、 l _bookmark28 How to make a building green and size of the market 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Smart Building and Building Automation 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 What is a smart or intelligent building? 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Market outlook 50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Overview of the competitive la

25、ndscape 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Components of a building automation system 55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Digital Building Twin 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Construction Industry and Digitalization, the BIM opportunity 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Schneider enters the BIM market with the planned acquisit

26、ion of RIB 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 EV-charging and buildings 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Overview of the expected impact 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Impact on the medium-voltage industry 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Home charging opportunity 66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 The Connected Home 67 HYPERLINK

27、l _bookmark42 The HVAC opportunity 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Cooling Basics 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 Ductless Penetration Growth 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Compressors 84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Refrigerants 85 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Variable Speed Drives 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Datacenters 8

28、9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Overview 89 HYPERLINK l _bookmark50 Data center growth outlook 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Overview of suppliers and offering 93 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 Market overview 95 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Important market trends 96 HYPERLINK l _bookmark54 Solution vs product approach

29、 97 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 The role of the Smart Meter in Smart Infrastructure 98 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Smart Meters vs Smart Grids How metering fits into the wider electricity network 98 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Smart metering as base for value added services and new applications 99 HYPERLINK l _

30、bookmark58 Electrical Engineering companies and Smart Metering 100 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Construction Market Outlook (prior to Covid-19) 102 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 US residential 103 HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 US non-residential 104 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 US non-res: Lead indicators and sub market

31、trends 105 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 European construction 107 HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 China construction 109 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Business profiles 111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 ABB Electrification ABB (UW, covered by Andreas Willi) 111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Alfa Laval Energy Alfa Laval (N, covere

32、d by Andrew Wilson) 116 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Daikin Industries Air conditioning Daikin Industries (OW, covered by Tomohiko Sano) 117 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Eaton Electrical Sector - Eaton (OW, covered by Ann Duignan) 120 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Honeywell Building Technologies Honeywell (OW, cove

33、red by Steve Tusa) 121 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Trane Technologies (OW, covered by Steve Tusa) 123 HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 Johnson Controls (N, covered by Steve Tusa) 124 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Landis+Gyr (UW, covered by Andreas Willi) 125 HYPERLINK l _bookmark74 Legrand (N, covered by Andreas Willi

34、) 126 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Nibe (Not covered) 129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark76 Rexel (OW, covered by Andreas Willi) 130 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Schneider Energy ManagementSchneider Electric (OW, covered by Andreas Willi) 133 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 Siemens Smart Infrastructure- Siemens (OW covered by

35、Andreas Willi) 136 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 Signify (UW, covered by Andreas Willi) 140JPM Cap Goods Annual thematic report series2019: Let the numbers do the talking a cross sector look at quality factors and ESG criteria2018: Service and Aftermarket Deep Dive who gets to enjoy the digital dividend?2

36、017: Clean Energy Disruption - Impact of batteries and electric cars on Capital Goods yet to be priced in2016: Global Power Generation and T&D - Deep dive into an increasingly dynamic market - gas turbine risks underappreciated, part of T&D to grow2015: European Capital Goods: Aftermarket and Servic

37、e - A cross-sector deep dive and review of risks and opportunities from trend to predictive maintenance2014: Industrial Automation - How the Internet of Things and Digitalization change the market and drive growth2013: Global Industrial Automation - Deep dive on medium term capex outlook leaves us c

38、autious despite near term cyclical improvement2012: Global Power Generation Review - Shift to Gas in an Overall Lackluster Power Generation Outlook2011: Electrical Engineering - Emerging Markets and Competition, a deep dive into the key long term earnings driversJPM ESG research reportsWhat happened

39、 to ESG? Deciphering the complexity of a booming marketESG Investing: Whats the best way to invest in ESG?J.P. Morgan Perspectives: Climate Changes ESG Investing, Part IIJ.P. Morgan Perspectives: ESG Investing 2019: Climate changes everythingExecutive summaryPlease use this link to the recent ESG pr

40、imer by JPMorgan European Equity Research.2019 was a breakthrough year, not just for general awareness of climate change and actions needed to slow it down, but also for investing in stocks scoring well on ESG metrics in the market and our coverage re-rating (with a focus on “E”, more so than “G” or

41、 S).Buildings have an important role to play in the ambition of governments and companies to reduce emissions. Buildings account for 39% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon neutral buildings are possible today. Regulation is becoming a more important driver, particularly in Europe.We discuss

42、in this report the drivers for the pivot towards energy efficient buildings, what the revenue opportunity for industrial companies is and who is best positioned.Drivers still mostly about the money but that is changingA very large majority of the market-for-efficiency investments is still driven by

43、financial incentives of the associated energy savings, particularly for owner/operators, with a focus on payback periods of the initially higher capex.The pressure from social media is growing for large firms, particularly consumer- facing ones.A growing number of corporates have made carbon commitm

44、ents and now have to figure out a roadmap to deliver on the top-down plans. Corporates emit carbon in their production, supply chain, logistics and buildings. Buildings are often the easiest way to achieve a reduction in emissions with more control for the corporate while technologies are mostly alr

45、eady available. Carbon neutral logistics depends on broad scale role out of e-mobility, changes in the supply chain depend on others, and changes in production technologies can negatively impact short term competitiveness.Regulation: Europe and a number of emerging markets including China are at the

46、 forefront here. Rules on minimum efficiencies phased in over time can result in stranded assets for real estate firms and provide pressure to upgrade old buildings. Long term owners of buildings may look for “Paris Proof” buildings that are compliant with the path to 1.5c global warming vs pre-indu

47、strial times. The next few years are critical as countries need to implement the bottom-up regulation and initiatives to back up their overall climate commitments.Capital: The backdrop of very low interest rates and relatively visible savings from investment make efficiency-driven capex today attrac

48、tive. Capital Markets recognizing the importance of ESG should also direct capital to firms and projects striving for lower carbon footprints. Future fiscal stimulus in an economic downturn will likely have a strong climate change focus to justify already high debt burdens for future generations.Fig

49、ure 1: Share of energy consumption in buildingsFinal Energy (EJ), globalOther appliances 14%Cooking 18%Space heating 32%How to improve a buildings carbon footprintPrincipally, there are two ways to reduce a buildings emissions. First, investments into the building make it more energy efficient and s

50、marter, thereby reducing energy needs. Second, fossil fuels can be replaced by other forms of energy, chiefly through electrification of processes historically powered by oil & gas. This only works if we assume that a growing share of electricity will be contributed by renewables.Lighting 7%Source:

51、IEA.Water Heating 18%Space cooling 11%We see the following as the main products and services that support a buildings decarbonization:Replacement of traditional heating systems by heat pumps.Improvement in building construction and insulation materials used.Intelligent building controls to optimize

52、energy use, sensing and data analysis of occupancy and use of building.High efficiency HVAC systems and associated controls.Local energy generation, storage and demand management solutions.LED lighting and associated smart controls.Implementation of district heating systems.Electricity today account

53、s for close to 40% of the energy used and this is forecast to rise to 60% by 2050, while demand for fossil energy directly used in buildings falls. This requires an increasing share of electricity to be generated from renewables in the future, otherwise the electrification of buildings will have a m

54、ore limited impact on global emissions. Overall, in terms of energy sourced, the share of oil & gas will decline.Figure 2: Impact on gas demand from building electrificationSource: NRDC.Figure 3: Global Power Generation mixSource: Bloomberg NEF.Overview of companies discussed and their relevant expo

55、sureWe provide an overview of the main suppliers of products, services and solutions for smart buildings. We focus on areas of most relevance to our stock coverage. We dont discuss in detail markets such as chillers / mechanical HVAC, fire & security or non-electrical building hardware (insulation m

56、aterials, installation products), audio/video equipment, access control and people flow/elevators.We discuss later on our views on whether an integrated offering matters vs best of breed/product supply. We dont discuss in detail the contribution that more efficient elevators can make to a building o

57、r the benefit to energy consumption from faster closing doors and sealants. This is not because they are not important but in order to keep the report focused on the Electrical markets.Table 2: Overview of the companies discussed diversified electrical companiesCompany% of rev to buildingsKey divisi

58、onRegional focusComment on exposureDiversifiedABB15%ElectrificationElectrification is 36% Americas, 32% Europe30% of Electrification and 10% of Motion exposed toand 29% RoW. Key countries are US (30%), China(14%), Germany and ItalyBuildingsAlfa Laval6%EnergyEnergy division is 34% Asia, 27% NorthAmer

59、ica, 25% other EU. Key country isEnergy is 30% of group, HVAC is 21% of Energy. Keyproduct here is heat exchangersSweden (3%)Eaton45%Electricals Americas, Electrical GlobalAbout 60% of Electrical exposure is AmericasDatacenter is 17% of Electrical, non-res construction is about 28% and residential i

60、s about 8%. Rest is Industryand UtilityHoneywell15% of which9% relevant to reportHoneywell Building Technology40% Americas, 37% EMEA, 23% APAC (HBT)Building Technology (HBT) is $5.6bn revenues or 15% of group. Of that 45% Building Solutions and 15% Building Management Systems. 40% is Fire andSecurit