Q1中国婴儿配方奶粉行业更新：最新的定价和股票趋势

1、Global Research15 April 2019EquitiesUBS Evidence Lab Inside: China IMFFoodGlobal1Q19 update: Latest pricing and share trendsQ1 update: LfL pricing turns positive; imported brands continue to dominate UBS Evidence Lab has analysed c500,000 records online to track price and SKU trends in China IMF 1/3

2、 of the global market. Key takeaways for Q1: (1) Like-for-like pricing turned positive after 10 months of declines, and all-in pricing continues to be solid at+4% thanks to a favourable mix impact. (2) Imported brands dominate best-selling SKUs with a 90% share, but their price premium vs the domest

3、ic ones has stayed at a 10% trough. (3) Danone, Nestl and Abbott have seen their bestseller shares decline, but A2M has had positive momentum for yet another quarter. This analysis is based on online B2C data (15-20% of the market) trends might be different in other channels.B2C regulation looks man

4、ageable; early feedback suggests little impact Regulatory focus has intensified on cross border e-commerce (B2C) and daigou (C2C) import channels since 4Q18. The November 2018 update indicates cross-border IMF trade will not be as heavily regulated as initially feared. Our early feedback is that it

5、has had little impact, and may longer term be a positive via consolidation driving improved pricing discipline (+ve Danone and A2M). Separately, imported brands peak 90% share of best-sellers coincides with a trough pricing premium over the domestic ones (down to just 10% vs 50% in 2016). Improving

6、LfL pricing across the market has helped, but the recent slowdown in domestic brands pricing hikes could challenge this dynamic.Bestseller trends: A2M maintains positive momentum; other MNCs are weaker We have analysed our companies share of (1) all SKUs and (2) top-25 bestseller lists (note: UBS Ev

7、idence Lab data covers only four B2C retailers; trends might be different elsewhere). Danone is the #1 with 41% share of the top-25 bestselling SKUs, but this figure is down -240bps y/y. Nestl has increased its SKU share by +230bps but lost - 260bps in its share of best-selling SKUs. Abbot (-290bps)

8、 was also weak. In contrast, A2M (+250bps) had strong gains in best-selling SKUs. See page 9 for details.Stocks: Upside risk to A2M; tough comps in China ELN for DanoneWe expect a slow start of the year for both RB and Danones China IMF business RB due to share losses post its Q3 manufacturing issue

9、s, and Danone due to tough comps and declines in the indirect channel (direct channel should be solid). Trends for A2 look positive, with share of bestsellers up +2.5% points y/y and pricing improving; we expect strong 2H FY19 results and sit 4% ahead of the mid-point of FY19 guidance.Figure 1: Chin

10、a infant milk formula (IMF) comp tablePinar Ergun, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:pinar.ergun pinar.ergun+44-20-7568 6885Christine Peng, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:christine-y.peng christine-y.peng+852-2971 7571Ben GilbertAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:ben.gilbert ben.gilbert+61-2-9324 2782Marcus CurleyAnal

11、yst HYPERLINK mailto:marcus.curley marcus.curley+64-9-913 4750Matthew Taylor, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:matthew-c.taylor matthew-c.taylor+1-212-713 6257Brad ChenAnalyst S1460516060001 HYPERLINK mailto:brad-a.chen brad-a.chen+86-213-866 8985UBSCompanyratingStock PriceUBS PTMkt CapChina IMF (% sales

12、)UBSe FY19 EPSUBSe FY20 EPSP/E (FY19E)P/E (FY20E)EV/EBITDA (FY19E)EV/EBITDA (FY20E)US$mNestlBuyCHF 96 CHF 106 $285,7232%CHF 4.32 CHF 4.69 22.3x 20.5x15.8x15.3xDanoneBuy6976$50,8327%3.804.19 18.2x 16.5x11.6x10.4xReckitt(MJN)Neutral 5936p6400p $54,7147%335p353p17.7x 16.8x13.7x13.1x China Mengniu* Neut

13、ral HK 28.7 HK 26.95 $14,3456%* Rmb 0.93 Rmb 1.12 21.9x 19.2x14.4x12.5x Yili IndustrialBuy CNY 30.32 CNY 32.50 $27,43011%CNY 1.20 CNY 1.36 25.2x 22.4x17.0 x15.1x Abbott Lab.Buy$78.5$85$137,1043%$3.22$3.6424.4x 21.6x14.0 x12.3x The a2 Milk Co Neutral NZD 14.65 NZD 14.00 $7,27555%NZD 0.40 NZD 0.52 36.

14、7x 28.1x26.0 x21.0 x FonterraNeutral NZD 4.27 NZD4.55 $4,6522% NZD 0.18 NZD 0.28 23.6x 15.3x 8.2x 8.5x*Yashilis Parent, *UBSe based on the 72% China IMF share in Yashili. Source: UBS estimates. Note: Priced as of 12 April 2019. HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been pr

15、epared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 30. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of

16、 this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.1Q19Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 UBS Evidence Lab: 1Q19 key takeaways3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Imported / premium brands remain dominant3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Positive like-for-like

17、 and all-in pricing in Q14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Bestsellers: Danone continues to dominate8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Company sections10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Nestl Buy, PT CHF 10610 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Danone Buy, PT 7612 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 RB Neutral, PT 6414 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Abb

18、ott Laboratories Buy, PT $8516 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 The a2 Milk Company Neutral, PT 14.00 NZD19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Fonterra Neutral, PT 4.55NZD20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Yili Buy, PT 32.50CNY21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Yashili (not covered; parent Mengniu is Neutral-rated)23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_

19、250001 China IMF regulatory outlook25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 UBS Evidence Lab methodology27Pinar Ergun, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:pinar.ergun pinar.ergun+44-20-7568 6885Christine Peng, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:christine-y.peng christine-y.peng+852-2971 7571Ben GilbertAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:b

20、en.gilbert ben.gilbert+61-2-9324 2782Marcus CurleyAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:marcus.curley marcus.curley+64-9-913 4750Matthew Taylor, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:matthew-c.taylor matthew-c.taylor+1-212-713 6257Brad ChenAnalyst S1460516060001 HYPERLINK mailto:brad-a.chen brad-a.chen+86-213-866 8985Char

21、les Eden, ACAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:charles.eden charles.eden+44-20-7568 9622Kate RusanovaAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:kate.rusanova kate.rusanova+44-20 7568 9285Nik Oliver Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:nik.oliver nik.oliver+44-20-7568 4982Robert RamptonAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:robert.rampton robert.rampto

22、n+44-20-7568 2014Robert Krankowski Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:robert.krankowski robert.krankowski+44-20-7568 1152UBS Evidence Lab: 1Q19 key takeawaysMix: Imported and premium brands hold the lead in best-seller sharesPricing: Positive trends both in LfL and all-in pricing (including mix)Best

23、sellers: Another good quarter for A2; MNCs lost some momentumImported / premium brands remain dominantImported brands have further extended their dominance in the B2C online channel, with an 81% share of total online SKUs not too far from their peak of 84% in June 2018. Imported brands captured an e

24、ven higher 90% share of the top-25 best-selling SKUs, up from 82% a year ago. Their increase over the last two years has coincided with a narrowing pricing premium, as we discuss later.Figure 2: % of online SKUs: import vs domesticFigure 3: % of Top-25 bestseller SKUs online100%80% of SKUs60%40%IMPO

25、RTDOMESTIC% of top 25 bestseller ranking100%80%60%40%74%IMPORTDOMESTIC 82%90%20%20%26%18%10%84%81%63%37%16%19%Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19Mar-19Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul

26、-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19Mar-190%0%Source: UBS Evidence Lab Note: This analysis is based on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the harvested dataSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: This analysis is ba

27、sed on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the harvested dataPremium brands had a 55% share of the online SKUs, down from 61% a year ago. However, these brands are enjoying a much higher popularity with consumers, capturing a significant

28、ly higher 83% share of the top-25 best-selling SKUs. This has come at the expense of mainstream brands, which now represent only 9% of the best-selling SKUs (down from 18% last year). See below.Figure 4: % of SKUs online by price tierFigure 5: % of Top-25 bestseller SKUs online by price tier100%Main

29、streamPremiumSuper High Premium100%MainstreamPremiumSuper High Premium83%75%80% of SKUs60%40%56%24%61%55%80% of top bestseller ranking60%40%70%21%20%0%20%23%Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-1916%19%22%20

30、%0%18%8%7%9%Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19Mar-198%Source: UBS Evidence Lab Note: UBS defines Super High Premium as 300 RMB per 900g, Premium as 200-300 RMB, Mainstream as 100-200 RMBSource: UBS Evidence La

31、b Note: UBS defines Super High Premium as 300 RMB per 900g, Premium as 200-300 RMB, Mainstream as 100-200 RMBPositive like-for-like and all-in pricing in Q1In aggregate, the like-for-like pricing turned positive in February after 10 months of declines; see HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Figure 6. In additio

32、n, February and March showed the highest like- for-like and all-in y/y price improvements in the last two years. In Q1 overall, the like-for-like pricing was still slightly negative (-0.3%), but pricing including the mix impact improved for yet another quarter, to +4%. This indicates that new produc

33、ts are being launched at higher price points and/or products at a lower price point are being discontinued, driving positive y/y all-in pricing trends in the market.Figure 6: China IMF online like-for-like prices y/y change (in aggregate)1%1%All Price Tiers, LFL0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%1%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%0%0

34、%-3%-2%-2%-2%-1%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2%-3%-4%-4%Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19-5%Figure 7: China IMF online prices including mix y/y change (in aggregate)0%2%2%4%5%4%3%5%5%All Price Tiers, incl Mix6%4%0%2%0%-2%-1%-2%-3%-4%-2%-3%-5%-4%-6%-6%-5%-5%-5

35、%-4%-5%-5%-6%-5%-6%-8%Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19-10%Source: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabIn the charts below we also explore the pricing movements by price tier and imports vs domestic brands.Price segments: In Q1, all price tiers

36、saw improving pricing trends compared to the prior quarters. In terms of like-for-like pricing, Premium segment continued its accelerating pricing trends with a +2.4% y/y increase in March. Mainstream and Super Premium segments were more muted but have nevertheless improved sequentially. Pricing inc

37、luding the mix impact was positive for all three price tiers, with particularly large increases in the mainstream tier. Figure 15 in the next section shows a brand-by-brand analysis.Figure 8: China IMF online like-for-like prices y/y change by price tierFigure 9: China IMF online prices including mi

38、x y/y change by price tier4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%Jan-17-8%MainstreamPremiumSuper High Premium16%12%8%4%0%-4%-8%-12%MainstreamPremiumSuper High PremiumMar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Ma

39、r-19Source: UBS Evidence Lab Note: UBS defines Super High Premium as 300 RMB per 900g, Premium as 200-300 RMB, Mainstream as 100-200 RMBSource: UBS Evidence Lab Note: UBS defines Super High Premium as 300 RMB per 900g, Premium as 200-300 RMB, Mainstream as 100-200 RMBImport vs domestic: Please note

40、that UBS Evidence Labs imported vs domestic analysis is based on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the harvested data. As such, the charts on this page may not fully reconcile to others in the report.The data shows improving (and posit

41、ive) like-for-like pricing for imported brands. In contrast, domestic brands pricing has been softening and turned slightly negative in March. We think competitive intensity, consumers ongoing interest in trading up to more premium products (which are dominated by imported brands) and (potentially)

42、discounting by distributors to clear the stock in response to lower expected volumes (due to lower birth rates) could all be among the explanations for moderating domestic LfL pricing. (Read more about the longer-term shifts here: HYPERLINK /shared/d2FnDsK1U0Z China IMF Sector Survey).Pricing includ

43、ing the mix impact was positive for both imported and domestic brands. Imported pricing continued to accelerate and reached +6% in March; domestic pricing has stayed solid at +9%.Figure 10: Online average like-for-like prices y/y changeFigure 11: Online average prices y/y change including mix8%6%4%2

44、%0%-2%-4%-6%Jan-17Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19-8%DOMESTICIMPORT20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%DOMESTICIMPORTMar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19Source: UBS Evidence Lab. Note: Analysis is based on a subset of

45、items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the dataSource: UBS Evidence Lab. Note: Analysis is based on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the dataDespite more favourable overall pricing in Q1

46、 (incl. mix) the average price premium of imported over domestic remains at its trough. It has stabilised at around 10% in 2Q18 (down from 50% in 2016) and remains around that level; see below.DOMESTICIMPORTFigure 12: Online average prices of domestic and imported brands, including mixFigure 13: Onl

47、ine average price premium of imported over domestic , including mix (domestic = 100)290270250230210190170Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19150150140130120110Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov

48、-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19Mar-19100AverageSource: UBS Evidence Lab. Note: Analysis is based on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the dataSource: UBS Evidence Lab. Note

49、: Analysis is based on a subset of items, excluding items where the country of production for the SKU is not available in the dataPricing: company-level analysisWe have aggregated brand data at the company level to track online prices by company. We analyse the pricing changes both on a like-for-lik

50、e basis (which tracks the pricing of the same SKUs over time) and on an all-in basis (which includes the mix changes from new and removed SKUs). In summary:Among the multinationals, the average like-for-like pricing was the weakest for Nestl (-2%) and Abbott (-1%), while Danone (+1%) and RB (+2%) we

51、re up slightly. Including the mix impact, the median pricing for Abbott (+9%) and Nestl (+4%) fared better, with RB (+3%) and Danone (-4%) lagging others.Among the local companies, Yashili saw average LfL price decreases of -16%, but its all-in (incl. mix) median pricing was up significantly, +35% y

52、/y. For Yili, LfL pricing dropped -11% y/y, its all-in median pricing was up +15%. Wandashan delivered strong LfL and all-in y/y price increases.Australasian companies: A2 Milk delivered another quarter of strong positive average LfL pricing (+7%), while its median pricing including the mix impact w

53、as also positive (+3%). Pleasingly it looks as if the lift is driven by both English Label (daigou) and growing penetration of China Label product which is being priced at similar levels to in-store (positive for channel clarity).Data in Figure 14 and 15 are calculated using different methodologies

54、(explained below the charts). Mix includes the impact of both new SKUs and removed ones.Figure 14: Year-on-year like-for-like average online price changes in 1Q19 at the company level10%7%4%2%2%1%1%LFL Price by Company, % y/y, 1Q 19 vs 1Q18-1%-2%-3%-5%-5%WandashanA2 milkFriesland CampiaHipp Internat

55、ionalReckitt BenckiserBiostimeDanoneAbbottNestleOtherBeingmateJunlebaoBellamysYili-10%-11%Yashili-16%Source: UBS Evidence Lab. The data reflects the average price of like for like items and is SKU-weighted (i.e., aggregated across brands/companies)Figure 15: Y/Y median online price changes in Q1 at

56、the company level (incl. mix changes from new & removed SKUs)48%35%Price incl mix by Company, % y/y, 1Q19 vs 1Q1815%14%12%9%5%4%3%3%2%0%JunlebaoYashiliYiliWandashanOtherAbbottBiostimeNestleReckitt BenckiserA2 MilkBeingmateHipp InternationalDanoneBellamySFriesland Campia-4%-5%-7%Tpfer Gmbh-32%Source:

57、 UBS Evidence Lab. The data reflects the median price, with all items (new and removed) included in the trend. Aggregates are based on the # of observationsPricing: brand-level analysis by price-tierBelow we analyse the key brands by price-tier in more detail (recall that mainstream is 23% of SKUs,

58、premium 55% and super premium 22%). Note: UBS Evidence Labs dataset no longer includes , which has led to some variability compared to the datasets we published in previous quarters.Mainstream: In the mainstream tier, the top-3 brands in terms of SKU count are S-26 (23%), Danones mainstream brands o

59、ther than Cow & Gate (18%) and Junlebao (18%). In Q1, Italian brand Mellin Merrill saw the largest like-for-like price increases (+21%). Pricing in Danones Cow & Gate brand was up +4% while Nestls S-26 was down -4%.Figure 16: % of Mainstream SKU count online* in 1Q19Figure 17: 1Q19 LfL price change

60、y/y in Mainstream tierBeingmate 4%Yili 5%Synutra 6%Semper 4%Mellin Merrill 2%Mainstream-2%Mellin Merrill21%Hero Baby10%Cow&Gate4%Danone-Other0%S-26-4%Semper-4%Synutra-4%Beingmate-5%Junlebao-5%Yili-11%S-26 23%Cow&Gate 7%Hero Baby 14% Danone-Other 18%Junlebao 18%Source: UBS Evidence Lab *in UBS Eviden