俄罗斯与独联体移动经济报告

1、Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2THE MOBILE MARKET IN NUMBERS8One of the most highly penetrated regions in the world, dominated by Russia9Later than many global leaders, 4G will soon become the CISs11leading mobile technologyThe first 5G launches are on the horizon, though take-up

2、will not grow rapidly12Data demand surges as consumers transition from connected15to digitalA stable revenue outlook for the CIS as the next wave of capital17spending begins MOBILE DRIVING GROWTH AND ENABLING INNOVATION19 Mobiles contribution to economic growth and jobs20Consumer engagement with mob

3、ile services23Mobile facilitating and driving innovation across the region24POLICIES INFLUENCING THE FUTURE OF MOBILE32Spectrum for 5G33Infrastructure rollout regulation35Security and privacy online36 The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019Executive SummaryModest growth on the horizon given high mark

4、et penetrationAt the end of 2018, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)1 was home to 235 million unique mobile subscribers,2 of which Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan together accounted for 80%. The CIS has a high rate of unique mobile subscriber penetration at 81%, though country-level figures

5、 range from60% in Turkmenistan to almost 90% in Russia.As saturation of the regions addressable market edges closer, future growth will be limited, with less than 9 million new unique subscribers forecast by 2025. Material increases in subscriber numbers will be delivered by underpenetrated markets

6、such as Uzbekistan where there is still scope for growth.4G migration ongoing as industry edges towards 5G eraThough later than many developed markets, the CIS is now seeing an accelerating shift to mobile broadband. 4G will overtake 2G as a proportion of connections in 20193 and will become the reg

7、ions leading mobile technology in 2021. Greater use of data- intensive services and demand for higher speeds will drive further adoption, with4G accounting for more than two-thirds of total connections by 2025. Only Belarus and Russia are expected to launch 5G by the end of 2020; networks in the reg

8、ions other 10 markets will be live by 2025. The CIS will be home to around 54 million 5G connections by 2025, representing an adoption rate of 13%.Revenue outlook broadly flat, with capex poised to ramp upBetween 2019 and 2025, mobile revenue in the CIS is forecast to remain largely stable. However,

9、 market-level analysis paints a more nuanced picture. In certain countries, we expect greater smartphone adoption, 4G upgrades and growing data usage todeliver some revenue uplift. In others, factors such as plateauing subscriber penetrationand acute competition could contribute to negative revenue

10、growth, possibly pressing the case for structural change. Over the same period, operators are forecast to invest $39 billion in capex, of which more than 70% will be 5G-specific. Delivering 5G connectivity will increase capital intensity, stretching operators financial resources.2Executive SummaryWe

11、 use the term CIS in this report to refer to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia.Total unique users who have subscribed to mobile services at the end of the period, excluding machine-to-machine (M2M). Subscribers differ from connections such that a unique user can have multiple

12、connections.Excluding licensed cellular IoTThe Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Mobiles significant contribution to jobs and the economyIn 2018, mobile technologies and services generated 4.7% of GDP in the CIS, a contribution of $101 billion of economic value added. In the period to 2023, this fi

13、gurewill increase to $122 billion (5.1% of GDP). The mobile ecosystem supported 620,000 jobs in the CIS in 2018, either through direct employment or indirectly through activity inthe wider economy. Mobile also contributes to the funding of the public sector, raising $12 billion in 2018 mainly via ge

14、neral taxation. 5G technologies are expected to contribute$34 billion to the CIS economy over the next 15 years, impacting key sectors such as manufacturing, utilities and construction.Regional innovation underpinned by mobile connectivityThe Internet of Things (IoT) is an area where mobile operator

15、s can grow their business beyond traditional communications. Industrial IoT connections in the CIS will see strong growth out to 2025, driven by increased interest in smart cities and smart utilities.With IoT revenue set to reach $26 billion in 2025, operators are implementing strategies designed to

16、 capture opportunities at the applications, platforms and services layer.Further, operators are seeking to invest or formalise partnerships in the e-commerce market, particularly as smartphone and mobile broadband adoption rates grow.The industry is also exploring potential applications of, and devi

17、sing solutions based on, artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies, and injecting greater funds in the start-up ecosystem to protect itself from disruption and diversify revenues.Policies to support the regions burgeoning digital economyExecutive Summary35G mobile networks offer the p

18、otential to underpin a range of solutions for enterprises, in addition to serving the consumer market. However, uncertainty around spectrum access and returns on investment can be significant barriers to releasing value into the digital economy. Policymakers should consider the rollout of 5G a vehic

19、le for driving socioeconomic growth and thetransformation of traditional industries.The regulatory framework should foster the mobile industrys development within an environment that is conducive to investment. Launches of 5G networks in other markets indicate that a key factor behind their successf

20、ul deployment and operation is the creation of a comprehensive national 5G development plan.Russia & CISUnique mobile subscribers2018235mPENETRATION RATESIMconnectionsExcluding licensed cellular IoT2018420mPENETRATION RATE244m431m81(% of population)83CAGR 201825145(% of population)147CAGR 2018250.52

21、025Mobile industry0.420255.14.7$101bn2018Operator revenues and investmentTotal revenues$23.1bn 20182025 $24.2bnOperator capex of $38.8 billion for the period 20192025contribution to GDPof GDP$122bn2023Smartphone adoption4G connections*2018101m2025292mAdoption(as a proportion of total connections)24%

22、68%20182025(as a proportion of total connections)577720182025Licensed cellular IoT connections27m20185G connections* in 202554m(13% of total connections)*Excluding licensed cellular IoT87m2025Public fundingMobile ecosystem contributionEmployment2018$12bnto public funding (before regulatory and spect

23、rum fees)270,000Jobs2018directly supported by the mobile ecosystemPlus 350,000 indirect jobs The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019The CIS regionRUSSIABELARUSMOLDOVAUKRAINEGEORGIAKAZAKHSTANKYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTANARMENIAUZBEKISTANTURKMENISTAN AZERBAIJAN6Executive SummaryThe Mobile Economy Russia and CI

24、S 2019 The CIS region: subscriber and technology trends for key markets202579%62%3G43%2018SMARTPHONE ADOPTION26%20184G75%202591%201890%20252G31%6%19%5GSUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX*Russia202582%60%3GSMARTPHONE ADOPTION37%201836%20184G202589%201888%52%20252G61% 2%11%SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHN

25、OLOGY MIX*Ukraine202574%45%3G36%201841%SMARTPHONE ADOPTION20184G202567%201860%5G56% 2% 6%202513%2G46%SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX*Uzbekistan202573%201854%3G31% 29%SMARTPHONE ADOPTION201849%4G202573%201869%20252G20%59%5G12%SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX*KazakhstanExecutive Summary7*Perc

26、entage of connectionsThe Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 201901The mobile market in numbers8The mobile market in numbers1.1One of the most highly penetrated regions in the world, dominated by RussiaFigure 1Source: GSMA IntelligenceUnique subscribers will reach 244 million by 2025, though this represen

27、ts only a marginal increase in market penetrationMillions81%83% 68%300250200150100500201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 RussiaOther CIS marketsSubscriber penetration (%)Figure 2Source: GSMA IntelligenceThe CIS is a diverse geography, with headline numbers masking markets at

28、 different stages of development88%90%74%79%65%68%60%64%62%64%69%60%14012010080604020ArmeniaGeorgiaMoldovaTurkmenistanKyrgyzstanTajikistanAzerbaijanBelarusKazakhstanUzbekistanUkraineRussia0 The mobile market in numbers9Unique mobile subscribers (millions)Subscriber penetration (%)Figure 3Source: GSM

29、A IntelligenceA significant percentage of net subscriber growth between 2018 and 2025 will come from Uzbekistan, a populous but relatively underpenetrated countryMillions1.0 UzbekistanKazakhstanTajikistanAzerbaijanTurkmenistanOthersTotal4. Excluding licensed cellular IoT10The mobil

30、e market in numbersThere were 420 million SIM connections in the CIS at year-end 2018,4 equivalent to a penetration rate of 145%. The number of connections will reach431 million in 2025, nudging penetration up by a small amount. Levels of multi-SIM ownershipare well above the global average, reflect

31、ing strong competition in a largely prepaid market, where unlocked handsets are primarily sourced from independent outlets, with dual-SIM phones particularly common in Russia.1.2Later than many global leaders, 4G will soon become the CISs leading mobile technologyAt the end of 2018, 4G accounted for

32、 less than a quarter of the regions connections base, compared to 50% in Europe. However, operator investments are now bearing fruit as the regions shift to mobilebroadband services accelerates, marked by the total number of 4G connections topping 100 million by year-end 2018.Figure 4Source: GSMA In

33、telligenceFollowing 3Gs peak, 4G is set to take the lead in 2021, reaching 290 million connections by 2025Percentage of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)68%5G3G peaks4G leads18%13%2%4G3G2G20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025The mobile market in numbers11Russia has been the key dr

34、iver of the migration to 4G, seeing some of the regions first 4G network launches in 2012. The rollout of base stations, spectrum refarming and a greater focus on rural areas expanded 4G coverage to 85% by the end of 2018. 4G network availability and performanceremain key competitive dimensions in t

35、he Russian market, with the four main operators all launching LTE-Advanced networks in recentyears. 4G connections are due to reach 186 million in the country by 2025, over three quarters of total connections.1.3The first 5G launches are on the horizon, though take-up will not grow rapidlyFigure 5So

36、urce: GSMA IntelligenceThe CIS region will not be at the forefront of 5Gs development; certain markets are set to be fast followers5G launchesGeorgiaArmeniaRussiaBelarusUkraineAzerbaijanKazakhstan202020212022202320242025KyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistanMoldovaThe initial focus of 5G in the

37、CIS is likely to be on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) to add capacity in hotspot areas and to offer higher network throughput; 58% of Russian consumers expect 5G to deliver an improvement in dataspeeds, which operators may use as a marketing differentiator against 4G.5 With fibre broadbandaccess a

38、lready a fairly mature market in the likes of Belarus,6 5G-based fixed wireless services may find opportunities limited in the short run. Although IoT and enterprise solutions (such as for smart cities, autonomous vehicles and public security systems) are being explored, they will take time to devel

39、op.12The mobile market in numbersGSMA Intelligence Consumer Survey 2018 HYPERLINK https:/www.ftthcouncil.eu/documents/FTTH%20Council%20Europe%20-%20Panorama%20at%20September%202018.pdf FTTH Council Europe Panorama, IDATE, 2019Operators are preparing for the 5G eraRussian operator Tele2 has launched

40、a 5G pilot zone in central Moscow in the 28 GHz band in non-standalone (NSA) mode. Though the Ministry of Communications has rejected a series of 3.4-3.8 GHz trial applications, it is expected to assign 4.4-4.99 GHz and millimetre wave (mmWave) spectrum to test 5G later in 2019.A number of 5G test z

41、ones have now been opened in Belarus, allowing firms to test innovative applications of the technology. Meanwhile, in September 2019 a working group comprising operators and government agencies will present its provisional framework for the deployment of 5G across the country.Azerbaijani operator Az

42、ercell has selected Ericsson to modernise its radio access network (RAN) to be 5G-ready over a two-year programme, which will include the supply of services and multi- standard radio equipment nationwide.The three largest cities in Kazakhstan Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), Almaty and Shymkent will be

43、 covered with 5G “in the near future”, according to Kazakhtelecom. The operators three-phase pilot programme is scheduled for the 2019-2021 period and will test 5G use cases, including fixed wireless, eMBB and M2M communications.Figure 6Source: GSMA IntelligenceWith the majority of launches a few ye

44、ars away, critical mass for 5G in the CIS is still some way offMillions42%13%6050403020100202020212022202320242025 ConnectionsAdoption (%)PopulationThe mobile market in numbers13coverage (%)Figure 7Source: GSMA IntelligenceRussia will lead 5G adoption, with 5G accounting for nearly a fifth of connec

45、tions in 20255G as a share of total connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)19%Russia19%Belarus13%CIS12%Kazakhstan5%Georgia14The mobile market in numbers1.4Data demand surges as consumers transition from connected to digitalAt the end of 2018, smartphones accounted for 57% of connections in the

46、 CIS, compared to 73% in Europe and 83% in Northern America. This reflects issues around affordability and the fact that theregion is comprised to varying degrees of majority prepaid markets, with few handset subsidies or financing offers.Figure 8Source: GSMA IntelligenceSmartphone connections will

47、exceed 330 million by 2025, with data growth spurred by take-up of more affordable devices4.5CIS57%77%3.4Russia62%79%4.6Ukraine60%82%7.3Uzbekistan45%74% The mobile market in numbers1520182025CAGRIntense competition is keeping retail prices low relative to many developed markets, helping expand data

48、volumesCost of 5 GB premium basket ($ per month)45 20.528.440.06.12.14035302520151050IndiaKazakhstanKyrgyzstanRussiaItalySpainGermanyUS16The mobile market in numbersFigure 10Source: GSMA Intelligence, Cisco VNI 20187Mobile data traffic in the CIS will grow six-fold between 2017 and 2022Exab

49、ytes per monthx6.0(regional average)RussiaRest of CEE3.7x4.5N. America1.35.8x5.0EU53.50.7x5.30.3Rest of W. Europe1.620172022Growth ratesRest of CEE = Rest of Central and Eastern Europe. For more information, see HYPERLINK /c/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-highlights.html /c

50、/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-highlights.html1.5A stable revenue outlook for the CIS as the next wave of capital spending beginsFigure 11Source: GSMA IntelligenceLargely flat revenue forecast for the region between 2019 and 2025 obscures market-level differences$ billion6.00.12015

51、2016201720182019202020212022202320242025302520151050RussiaOther CIS marketsYoY growth ratesDespite competitive pressures and relatively low pricing, service revenue trends in Russia improved during 2017-18. Beyond 2019, revenue growth is expected to be positive, albeit at a subdued rateof less than

52、1% on average and below inflation, which is currently holding above the central banks 4% target.In contrast, other CIS markets will see total revenue decline over the 2019-2025 period. Ukraine and Uzbekistan (the second and third largest markets after Russia) are projected to experience falling reve

53、nue, with only Azerbaijan and Moldova exhibiting a positive revenue forecast for the coming years.With some of the lowest mobile data prices and ARPU levels globally, the revenue outlook in the CIS is likely to remain modest until operators more effectively monetise strong data traffic growth and cu

54、ltivate new revenue streams. Leading operators have been active in developing digital platformsand services; however, these have had less impact on top line trends so far than has been the casein markets such as Turkey, while VEONs app was not widely adopted.8 5G offers some clear revenue potential,

55、 though this is unlikely to be realised in the short term.The mobile market in numbers17“VEON: When Transformation Goes Bad”, Light Reading, July 2018Figure 12Source: GSMA IntelligenceGrowing number of 5G launches post-2020 will drive an upturn in aggregate capex levels, with 5G accounting for more

56、than 70% of operator spend to 20259Capex, $ billion726%625%524%423%322%221%120%2019-2025spendTotal$39bn5G$28bn0201920202021202220232024202519%18The mobile market in numbersRussiaOther CIS marketsRegional capex/revenue (%)The Yarovaya law, which came into force in July 2018, will also affect cashflow

57、s over the coming years for Russian operators a factor not reflected in our forecasts. This law obliges telcos to store voice, SMS and data traffic records for up to six months. Operators are investing significant sums in secure storage software and facilities; MegaFon recorded a capex increase of 1

58、3.2% in 2018 compared with 2017, citing compliance with the law as a major investment project.10 Company estimates for the Yarovaya laws financial impact range from RUB40-60 billion ($608-912 million) over a five-year period. HYPERLINK /research/2019/04/2025-capex-outlook-financing-the-5g-era/755/ 2

59、025 Capex outlook: financing the 5G era, GSMA Intelligence, 2019Other such projects included the accelerated rollout of LTE/LTE-A and VoLTE networks, and the further development of MegaFons billing platform: HYPERLINK /investors/events/presentations/ /investors/events/presentations/The Mobile Econom

60、y Russia and CIS 201902Mobile drivinggrowth and enabling innovation19Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation2.1Mobiles contribution to economic growth and jobsFigure 13Source: GSMA IntelligenceThe mobile ecosystem generated $23 billion of economic value in 2018, with mobile operators accountin