美国各州出口中国报告

1、2019 District ExportReportGoodsandServicesExportsbyUSCongressional DistrictstoChinaOverthePastDecade|20192019 District Export ReportGoodsandServicesExportsbyUSCongressionalDistricts to China Over the Past DecadeSeptember 2019Executive SummaryEveryyear,theUS-ChinaBusinessCouncilundertakesacomprehensi

2、ve,econometricanalysisofUS goodsandexportdatatoChina,brokendownbystatesandvotingdistricts.Asinpreviousyears, ourdatafindsthatChinacontinuestobeacriticalexportmarketforAmericanmanufacturersand serviceproviders.However,risinguncertaintyandbilateraltensionsarenegativelyimpactingthe commercial opportuni

3、ties China presents for Americancompanies.TradetensionswithChinahitUSgoodsexportsin2018,down7percentfromthepreviousyear. Servicesexportsincreased,butataslowerpacethaninpreviousyears.Despitethesechallenges, trade with China continued to contribute to US economic growth, with US exports to China suppo

4、rting more than 1.1 million Americanjobs.Chinaisthethird-largestmarketforUSgoodsandservicesexports.Despitetradefrictionand punitivetariffs,ChinaremainedatopmarketforUSgoodsexportsin2018,withonlyNAFTA partnersCanadaandMexicobuyingmoregoods.Itwasalsothethird-largestmarketforUS servicesexports,afterthe

5、UnitedKingdomandCanada.Tradetensionscontinuetoweighontheeconomy.Punitivetariffscontributetoan unpredictablebusinessenvironmentandaremeasurablyharmingUSexportersand exacerbating the trade deficit withChina.Mostcongressionaldistrictshaveseensignificantincreasesinexportsofgoodsandservicesto China in th

6、e past decade, though exports in the last year were downin some cases, significantly.Allbuteightcongressionaldistrictssawtriple-digitgrowthinserviceexportsto Chinaoverthelastdecadeofavailabledata,butthepictureisnotsorosyforgoodsexports. Only104districtssawtriple-digitgrowthingoodsexportsfrom2009to20

7、18.US Exports and US JobsExportstoChinasupportover1.1millionAmericanjobs.Districtsacrossthecountryhavejobs that are supported thanks to US exports to China, making trade important to not only US companiesandconsumers,butalsoUSworkers.USgoodsexportstoChinacomefroma widerangeofindustriesincludingtrans

8、portationequipment,semiconductors,andoilandgas, sustaininglogisticsjobsinAmericasportsandthroughoutthecountry.USservicesexportsto China included travel and education, industrial processes, and management services, among otherindustries.Goods ExportsUSgoodsexportstoChinadeclinedin2018,afterpostingare

9、cordhighthepreviousyear. TheUnitedStatesexported$118.3billioningoodstoChinain2018,comparedwithanall- timehighof$127.8billionin2017.The7percent,or$9billion,declineislikelyduetothe tradeconflictbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinawhichresultedinretaliatorytariffsonan estimated 85 percent ofUSgoods, includin

10、g most agricultural products.Despite the decline, goods exportstoChinastilloutpaced exportgrowthtotherestofthe worldoverthelastdecade.US exports of goods to China increased72percentoverthe last decade, while exports to therestoftheworldgrewonly 57percent.US Goods Exports to China($ billion)$119.8$12

11、1.4$114.0$113.8$119.8$121.4$114.0$113.8$127.8$118.3$103.0$108.9$90.4$68.72009201020112012201320142015201620172018Services ExportsComparedwithpreviousyears, US services exports to China grewmoreslowlyin2017,the latestyearoffulldata,though they still outpaced services exports to other major markets. S

12、ervices export growthtotherestoftheworld grew 2.7 percent faster than Chinathatyear.Overthelast decade, however, US services exports to China grew significantlyfasterthanthoseUS Services Exports to ($ billion)$47.6$43.7$37.0$32.5$28.0$22.2$15.7$16.8$53.7$47.6$43.7$37.0$32.5$28.0$22.2$15.7$16.8$56.1t

13、otherestofthepercentversus49percent.2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Districts across the country feel the effects of the trade disputeGrowthinexportstoChinaslowedduetotradedisputesbetweentheUnitedStatesand China.Twohundredandsixty-fivecongressionaldistrictssawlowergoodsexportvolumes

14、in 2018thanin2017,andanother61districtssawlessthan$10milliondollarsinexportgrowth in the same period. Midwestern and Plains districts that export significant quantities of soybeansandotheragriculturalproductswerehitparticularlyhard.Inservices,100districts exportedlesstoChinain2017thantheydidin2016,a

15、ndonly23districtshaddouble-digit growthinservicesexports.Comparethatto2015to2016,whenonlyeightdistrictssawa declineinservicesexportsand380sawdouble-digitorhighergrowth.Trade disputes also affected the overall value of exports to China. In 2017, 12 districts exportedmorethan$1billioningoodstoChinaand

16、34moreexportedover$500million;in 2018,thosenumbersfellto10and25,respectively.Theexportofservicesremainedrelatively stablefrom2016to2017,with192districtsexportingmorethan$100millioninbothyears. Continuedgrowthinservicesmaybetheresultofservicesexportsnotbeingsubjecttotariffs.Chinaisatopgoodsandservice

17、sexportmarketformostdistricts.Chinawasatopthree goodsexportmarketfor240districtsin2018,andamongthetopfivefor357districts.China wasatopthreeservicesexportmarketin2015for305congressionaldistrictsandatopfive market for 396districts.Change in goods exportsAnnual goods exports to China, 2017-2018-$558M$7

18、15M3September-$558M$715M3September2019MethodologysyearsnftheUS-aBussl)DistrictExporsRepotsprovidedbyTheTradePartnership,aneconomicresearchfirm.Thereportprovidesaseparate breakdownofeachdistrictsgoodsandservicesexportstoChina.Thenationalexporttotalsinclude theexportdataforeachdistrict.Goodsexportfigu

19、resarebasedprimarilyondatafromtheUS CensusBureau,theUSDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA),andMoodysAnalytics.Goodsexportfigures are classified according to the US governments North American Industry Classification (NAICS)system.ServicesexportfiguresarebasedprimarilyondatafromtheUSBureauofEconomic Analysis

20、(BEA)andMoodysAnalytics.ServicesexportfiguresareclassifiedaccordingtotheBEAcategories.ThisyearseditionoftheDistrictExportsReportusesthesamesectorcategoriesforboth goodsandservicesaslastyearsedition.Goodsexportscover2009-2018;servicesexportscover 2008-2017,themostrecentyeardetailedservicesexportdataa

21、reavailablefromBEA.Ashistorical datafromeachofthesesourcesisrevisedannually,thisissueoftheDistrictExportsReportreplaces all prior editions. Similar to previous editions of the District Exports Report, this report uses a methodologythatcreditsagriculturalexportstodistrictswherecropsaregrownasopposedt

22、oones withlargeportswherebulkcommoditiesareaggregatedpriortoexport.Adetailedexplanationof themethodologyforjobs,goods,andservicesexportestimatesisavailableonTheTradePartnerships HYPERLINK /data/cdxports-and-cdxjobs/ website.SponsorsGrowth in Total US Goods Exports, 2009 2018Growth in Total US Goods

23、Exports, 2009 2018Exports to China: 72.2 ExportstoRestofWorld57.2($ billion)$127.8$119.8$121.4$118.3$108.9$114.0$113.8$103.0$90.4$68.7$127.8$119.8$121.4$118.3$108.9$114.0$113.8$103.0$90.4$68.72009201020112012201320142015201620172018 Top Goods Export Markets,2018 Top US Goods Exports to China, 20181.

24、 Canada$290.7 billionAerospace Products & Parts$16.1 billion2. Mexico$257.0 billionSemiconductors & Components$8.0 billion3. China$118.3 billionOil & Gas$7.2 billion4. Japan$73.4 billionMotor Vehicles$6.3 billion5. United Kingdom$59.4 billionNav. & Meas. Instruments$6.1 billionChina is the United St

25、ates third-largest goods export marketUS Services Exports to China($ billion)$47.6$43.7$37.0$32.5$28.0$22.2$15.7$16.8$53.7$47.6$43.7$37.0$32.5$28.0$22.2$15.7$16.8$56.12008200920102011201220132014201520162017Growth in Total US Services Exports, 2008 2017Exports to China: 257.5 ExportsGrowth in Total

26、US Services Exports, 2008 2017Exports to China: 257.5 ExportstoRestofWorld48.7 Top Services Export Markets,2017 Top US Services Exports to China, 2017 1. United Kingdom$69.4 billion1.Travel$18.9 billion2. Canada$57.9 billion2.Travel(Education)$12.8 billion3. China$56.1 billion3.IndustrialProcesses$4

27、.6 billion4. Ireland$49.8 billion4.PassengerFares$2.5 billion5. Japan$45.6 billion5.Mgmt.andadvisoryservices$1.9 billionChina is the United States third-largest services export marketNote: Full-year services export data are available only through year-end 2017.Top US Goods Export Markets in 2018Coun

28、tryTotal ($ Growth (2017-2018)Avg. Annual Growth(2009-2018)1.Canada$22.Mexico$257.09.08.43.China$118.3-7.46.24.Japan$73.411.64.45.UnitedKingdom$59.418.73.96.Korea,South$55.416.77.97.Germany$8.Netherlands$47.317.74.79.Brazil$10. Hong Kong$34.4-8.26.0DespitetradedisagreementswiththeUnitedStates,Chinac

29、ontinuestobeanimportant market for US goods exports. China is currently the United States third-largest export market.In2018,USgoodsexportstoChinatotaledover$118billion,downfrom$127billion in2017.USgoodsexportstoChinadeclinedin2018,downsevenpercentfrom2017.USexportsto Chinahavegrownfasteroverthelast

30、decadethanexportstoanyothertopUStradepartner.HongKongisoftenathroughpointforUSexportsultimatelydestinedforChina.Thiswas reflectedintheequaldeclineinexportstoHongKongin2018.In2018,combinedUSexports toHongKongandChinatotaled$152.7billion,downfromacombined$165.3in2017.Top US Services Export Markets in

31、2017CountryTotal ($ Growth (2016-2017)Avg. Annual Growth(2008-2017)1.UnitedKingdom$2.Canada$57.97.02.93.China$4.Ireland$5.Japan$6.Switzerland$7.UK Islands,Caribbean$34.56.811.08.Germany$9.Mexico$10. Brazil$Chinaisanimp

32、ortantmarketforUSservicesexports,thoughexportsgrewataslowerratein 2017thaninpreviousyears.ChinaiscurrentlytheUnitedStatesthird-largestexportmarket. In2017,USservicesexportstoChinareachedabout$56billion,upfrom$53billionin2016.Despiteslowinggrowthin2017,USservicesexportstoChinahavegrownfasteroverthela

33、st decadethanexportstoanyothertopUStradepartner.USservicesexportsincludetraveland education, transportation, business and professional services, and financial services, among otherindustries.Note:Full-yearservicesexportdataareavailableonlythroughyear-end2017.DataforUKCaribbeanbegantobe reported in20

34、13.Growth in US Goods Exports to Top 10 Markets, 2009-2018MexicoSouthKoreaChinaHongKongBrazilNetherlandsJapanCanadaKingdomGermanyRoWDouble-digit growth for US goods exports to ChinaOverthepastdecade,USexportstoChinahaverisenby73percent,makingChinaatop purchaserofUSgoods.GoodsexportstoHongKonggrewata

35、boutthesameratean indicationthatmanyexportsultimatelydestinedforChinafirstpassthroughHongKong.Chinaremainsthethird-largestmarketforUSgoodsexportsbehindCanadaandMexico, twocountrieswithwhichtheUnitedStateshasaregionaltradeagreement.Ofthetop10US goodsexportmarkets,MexicoandSouthKoreaexperiencedgreater

36、growthratesoverthe ten years between 2009 and 2018 than Chinadid.In2018,thetopUSgoodsexportstoChinaincludedaerospaceproductsandparts, semiconductors and components, and oil andgas.Note:Rankingsarebasedonexportdatafor2009and2018,comparingthetop10marketsforUSexports.“Restof World”exportgrowthforthispa

37、geiscalculatedusingthecumulativesumsforUSexportstoallremainingmarkets (non-top-10) for thoseyears.Growth in US Services Exports to Top 10 Markets, 2008-2017257.5ChinaUK Islands,BrazilIreland Switzerland CanadaMexicoGermanyKingdomJapanWorld US services exports to China are strong, but not immune to t

38、radetensionOverthepastdecade,USexportstoChinahaverisenbynearly258percent,makingChinaa toppurchaserofUSservices,thoughtradeconflictsbetweenthetwonationshaveslowed therateofgrowth.Overtheten-yearperiodendingin2016,USservicesexportstotherest of the world grew by 49percent.Despitetradedisagreements,USse

39、rvicesexportstoChinagrewatahigherannualratethan toanyothermarket,growingalmost14percentannuallyforthepastdecade.Chinaisthethird-largestservicesmarketforUSexportsbehindtheUnitedKingdomand Canada.In2017,thetopUSservicesexportstoChinaincludedtravelandeducation-relatedtravel, industrialprocesses,passeng

40、erfares,andmanagementandadvisoryservices.Note:Rankingsarebasedonexportdatafor2008and2017,comparingthetop10marketsforUSexports.“Restof World”exportgrowthforthispageiscalculatedusingthecumulativesumsforUSexportstoallremainingmarkets (non-top10)forthoseyears.Full-yearservicesexportdataareavailableonlyt

41、hroughyear-end2017.Chinas Top 5 Import Sources, 2018($ billion)$204.6$177.6$180.6$155.1$273.5$204.6$177.6$180.6$155.1UnitedStatesTaiwanJapanSouthKoreaEuropeanUnion US foreign competitors benefitted from US-China trade tensions in2018TheEuropeanUnion,SouthKorea,Japan,andTaiwanallcontinuetoexportmoreg

42、oodsto ChinathantheUnitedStates,andthoseeconomieshavebenefittedfromthetradetensions between the United States andChina.ThoughUSexportstoChinahavegrownsignificantlyoverthelastdecade,USimportsto Chinain2017accountedforaround7.3percentofChinastotalimports,comparedto13 percentfromtheEuropeanUnionand9.6p

43、ercentfromSouthKorea.TradedisputesbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinahadaneffectonUSgoodsexportsto China.ImportsfromtheUnitedStatesgrewbyonly0.75percentbetween2017and2018.By contrast,importsfromSouthKoreaincreasedby15.3percent,fromJapanby14.3percent, and from the European Union by 11.7percent.Note:Datafo

44、rthischartarebasedonPRCgovernmentstatistics.ThevalueofPRCimportsfromtheUnitedStatesis higherthanUSexportstoChinabecauseofseveraldatadiscrepanciesbetweenUSandPRCtradestatistics,reflecting methodologicaldifferencesregardingshippingcosts,aswellastariffsthatareappliedasgoodspassthroughother customsterri

45、toriesontheirwaytoChina.Top US District Goods Exporters to China, 2018DistrictExportsGrowth(2017-2018)Growth(2009-2018)1. Washington 2nd$7.1 billion11.2259.12. Washington 9th$3.5 billion-4.495.93. California 17th$3.1 billion-11.593.84. Oregon 1st$2.9 billion24.245.85. South Carolina 6th$2.1 billion9

46、.11220.06. Texas 7th$1.9 billion-1.5344.77. South Carolina 4th$1.6 billion-16.9680.08. Texas 11th$1.4 billion9.2884.99. Texas 18th$1.1 billion-2.374.010. Alaska$1.0 billion-23.073.611. Texas 36th$931 million-7.46.512. Kentucky 6th$913 million-12.4405.313. Washington 7th$885 million5.781.414. Texas 1

47、4th$866 million-9.626.415. Nevada 2nd$767 million17.7330.6 Districts across the country experienced declines in goods exports in2018WhilemanyUSdistrictscontinuetosellavarietyofexportstoChina,growthorlack thereofingoodsexportsbetween2017and2018reflectedongoingtradedisputes between the United States a

48、ndChina.Only171districtsincreasedtheirgoodsexportstoChinain2018overthepreviousyear.Of therestofthedistrictsthatfacedcontractioningoodsexports,157haddouble-digitdeclines inexportsduringthatsameperiod,with15districtslosinghalfoftheirexporttotals.Of the 15 districts that exported the most to China in 2

49、018, nine saw a year-over-year decline.Only65districtsexportedlesstoChinain2018thantheydidin2009,and349hadat least double-digit growth over thatperiod.Top US District Services Exporters to China, 2017DistrictExportsGrowth(2016-2017)Growth(2008-2017)1. New York 12th$1.6 billion12.6354.12. New York 10

50、th$1.3 billion12.7493.03. Massachusetts 7th$848 million13.9461.94. California 33rd$717 million7.0354.35. California 12th$538 million1.6323.56. Washington 7th$509 million6.4170.47. Nevada 1st$500 million-1.4325.28. California 28th$438 million11.3522.39. District of Columbia$432 million2.3254.210. Cal

51、ifornia 14th$428 million7.7233.911. Massachusetts 8th$421 million6.7340.712. California 37th$418 million11.9511.113. Georgia 5th$418 million4.5208.514. California 18th$414 million9.9326.215. California 17th$394 million12.6354.1 Services export growth to China slowed in 2017 compared with previousyea

52、rsAllbuteightdistrictshaveexperiencedtriple-digitservicesexportgrowthtoChinasince 2008,butslowerincreasesin2017affectedlong-termreturnsformany.In2017,Chinawasthetopmarketforservicesexportsfor142districtsandatopfivemarket for 396districts.Servicesexportshaveremainedrelativelyrobustinthelastyearofdata

53、,withsevendistricts exportingmorethan$500millioninservicestoChinain2017,comparedwithsixin2016.In 2008,notasingledistrictexportedmorethan$500millioninservicestoChina.Note: Full-year services export data are available only through year-end 2017.Top 5 Goods Exporters to China in 2018The exports of the

54、top five congressional districts show high-tech goods like aircraft parts, instruments, and semiconductors dominating the top slots. Districts that export significant quantities of these high-end goods have managed to weather the worst of US-China trade tensions, compared with states that export mor

55、e agricultural goods, for example.Washingtons 2nd District ($7.1 billion)Top exports:Aerospace products and parts ($6.7billion)Navigational and measurement instruments ($185million)Semiconductors & components ($29million)Washingtons 9th District ($3.5 billion)Top exports:Aerospace products and parts

56、 ($3.1billion)Motor vehicles ($101million)Navigational and measurement instruments ($74million)Californias 17th District ($3.1 billion)Top exports:Motor vehicles ($1.2billion)Computer equipment ($524million)Industrial machinery ($505million)Oregons 1st District ($2.9 billion)Top exports:Semiconducto

57、rs & components ($2.3billion)Industrial machinery ($381million)Navigational and measurement instruments ($85million)South Carolinas 6th District ($2.1 billion)Top exports:Aerospace products and parts ($1.8billion)Motor vehicles ($76million)Pulp & paperboard mill products ($32million)Top 5 Services E

58、xporters to China in 2017Majorservicesexportsfromthefivetopcongressionaldistrictsalsoshowaconcentrationinafew keystres,yeducati,tces,dtravel.US-atensionsmayea moresignificantimpactinnextyearsdataset.SomeanecdotalevidencesuggeststhatfewerChinese studentsmayenrollinAmericanuniversitiesandfewerChineset

59、ouristsmaychoosetovisitthe UnitedStatesinthecomingyearsasaresultofUS-Chinatensionsandbroaderinternationaltrends.New Yorks 12th District ($1.6 billion)Top exports:Management & advisory services ($453million)Travel ($387million)Film & television distribution ($152million)New Yorks 10th District ($1.3

60、billion)Top exports:Education ($648million)Travel ($216million)Management & advisory services ($160million)Massachusetts 7th District ($848 million)Top exports:Education ($535million)Travel ($147million)Management & advisory services ($63million)Californias 33rd District ($718 million)Top exports:Ed