C题 养老金制度的改革 第一问的程序

1、2011数学建模竞赛c题程序x=566 632 745 755 769 789 985 1110 1313 1428 1782 1920 2150 2292 2601 3149 4338 5145 5809 6241 6854 7656 8772 10007 11374 12567 14332 16614 19228 22844 26404 29688 32074 ; y=diff(x); pllot(y) a=lpcc(y,3)a = 11.00000 -1.223377 0.23002 00.10088 esstx=fillterr(00-a(2:eend),11,y); e=y-eest

2、xx; suubpllot(1222); pllot(laggs,aacs)2011数数学建模模竞赛cc题数据初步处处理：对对一般的的时间序序列而言言为得到到较为平平稳的序序列都会会对原来来的序列列进行取取对和差差分处理理并对新新的数列列进行白白噪声检检验cdataa=5566,6322,7445,7755,7699,7889,9985,11110,113133,14428,17882,119200,21150,22992,226011,31149,43338,551455,58809,62441,668544,76656,87772,1100007,1113774,1125667,11433

3、32,1166114,1192228,2228444,2264004,2296888,3320774; x=logg(cddataa); pllot(x) x11=diiff(x); suubpllot(2211) pllot(x) suubpllot(2222) pllot(x1) a=ar(x2,2)Discrretee-tiime IDPPOLYY moodell: AA(q)y(tt) = e(t) A(q) = 11 - 0.220344 q-1 - 00.0220655 q-2 y2(1)=-00.01159; y22(2)=0.03883; foor ii=3:32 yy2(ii

4、)=00.20034*y2(i-11)+00.0220655*y22(i-2);end pllot(x2(1:332) hoold on pllot(y2)真实值与可可能值比比较、程序如下程序如下xx=5566,6322,7445,7755,7699,7889,9985,11110,113133,14428,17882,119200,21150,22992,226011,31149,43338,551455,58809,62441,668544,76656,87772,1100007,1113774,1125667,1143332,1166114,1192228,2228444,2264004,2296888,3320774; y=logg(x);x1=diiff(y);a = 11.00000 -0.992600 0.03444 00.01157 esstx=fillterr(00-a(2:eend),11,x11);e=x1-esttx; aacs,l