申万海外新能源、中小盘3800hk gcl-poly energy holdings

1、SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Renewable Energy | Company BringingChinatothe27MarchMixedMarketData:Closing Price lnd YoYSWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Renewable Energy | Company BringingChinatothe27MarchM

2、ixedMarketData:Closing Price lnd YoY(%)tributable(HK$m) YoY(%)EPS ROE(%)Debt/asset(%) PE(x)PB k High/Low Market Cap Market Cap Shares Outstanding Exchange Rate (Rmb-Price Performance Note:DilutedEPSiscalculatedasifalloutstandingconvertiblesecurities,suchasconvertiblepreferredshares,convertibledebent

3、ures, stock options and warrants, were exercised.Revenue beat, EPS in line. GCL-Poly reported 2014 revenue of HK$37.3bn (+24% YoY, vs our forecast of HK$30.1bn) and net profit of HK$1,955m, a turnaround from its loss 2013 and5%nourestimate.EPSstoodatHK$0.126,vsourforecastof Increasing sales volume r

4、. GCL-Poly sold 15,443 m tonnes of polysilicon (-YoY) and 12,909MW (+36.8% YoY) r Polysilicon in 2014, The average selling Vincent Yu (ASP) of polysilicon r was c.HK$168.5 (US$21.7)/kg and HK$1.71 The installed capacity and attributable installed capacity er business of GCL-fell from 1,489.5MW and 9

5、11.3MW in 2013 to 1,459.5MW and 888.8MW in 2014 lantmay lower costs in 2015. 2014 polysilicon cash cost was (US$15.5 if including tion). er plant is scheduled to Related GCL-POLYENERGY ay, according to the management, which could olysilicon cash US$2.00toUS$11.5/kg(US$13.5ifincludedCapacity guidance

6、 is no surprise. Polysilicon production capacity by s is expected to remain 65,000 MT in 2015. Outlook for Fluidized Bed polysilicon production capacity could touch 5000MT annually. Polysilicon cells output projected to reach 14GW, 1GW incremental vs 2014 capacity, the prosingcostofwhich may drop US

7、$0.08/W within the year. Meanwhile, the company is committed to Thecompanydoesnotholdanyequitiesor derivatives of the listed companyhisreport”),butweshallprovidefinan ladvisoryservi subject to the relevant laws andregulations.Anyaffiliatesofthesiliconingotconsumptionratefrom5g/Wto4.5g/Wofthismayhold

8、equitiesof,exceed 1 percent of iedshare to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investmentainHold.Giventheweakspotpriceofpolysilicon, werevisedownourEPSfrom HK$0.18 to HK$0.15 in 15E (+21.5% YoY) and from HK$0.24 to HK$0.18 in ingto.Companyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithin

9、 its sphere of knowledge. The c nts may(+20.5% YoY). roduce our new EPS forecast of HK$0.22 in 17E (+21% YoY). contactrelevantdisclosurematerialsorlog bottom line growth remainsrobust, we ain price of HK$2.00, undercolumn for further information. The c nts shallhaveacomprehensiveunderstanding of the

10、 disclosure and dier upon the13.05x15EPEand10.83x16EPE,1.49x15E PBand1.31x16E PB.With1%downside,ainourlast page.通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Renewable Energy | Company BringingSWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHong

11、yuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Renewable Energy | Company BringingChinatothe投资要收入超预期，EPS 基本一致。保利协鑫 2014 年实现收入 373 亿港币，同比增长24%，为 2014 年的 19.55 亿港币利润，高们估计的 0.125%。 EPS 为 0.126 港币，与。保利协鑫售出 15,443 吨多晶硅（同比下降 5.4）和 12,909 兆瓦硅片（同比增长 36.8）。多晶硅 2014 年平均售价约为 168.5 港币/千克（相当/千克），硅片 2014 年平均售价在 1.71 港

12、币/瓦/瓦）左右。司发电业务装机容量和权益装机20131,489.5瓦和911.3自备电厂可将硅料现金成本降低 2014为 /千克（含折旧 5 月 15多晶硅现金成本 至 /千克（/千克若包含折旧）201565000反应堆多晶硅产能可触及 5000 吨。能电池产量预计 2015 年将达到 14GW14 年增产 1GW 左右，硅片加工成本有望下降 0.0854.5。修正了 15 年 从 0.18 港币到 0.15 港元（同比增长 21.5），16从 0.24 港元下调至 0.18 港元（同增长 20.5），并引入 17 年 EPS 为 0.22 港元（同比增长 21）。保守增长速依然强劲维持目标

13、价 2.00 港元，相当于13.05x 15E10.83x 16E 市盈率维持中本通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用eCostofeAdministrative Minority Plus:Depr.and0000LossesfromCXEquityDividenderestCFfromfinancingeCostofeAdministrative Minority Plus:Depr.and0000LossesfromCXEquityDividenderestCFfromfinancingWS 本通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monito

14、rInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageNetcashOtherCFfromfinancingNetchangeinCFfrominvestingCFfromoperatingChangeinworking ProfitbeforeProfitfortheetaxFinance Repairsandma Gross BandLong-term angible and other Current Long-term Share Equity KeylEarnings per Netassetsper EBIT GrowthrateofTu

15、rnoverrateofnetEffectivetaxrate BandLong-term angible and other Current Long-term Share Equity KeylEarnings per Netassetsper EBIT GrowthrateofTurnoverrateofnetEffectivetaxrateValuation Ratios 本通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageDividend yield GrowthrateofEBI

16、TDA Key Operating Dividend per Diluted Total Liabilities and Total Other current TotalOther current Current The views his report accura y reflect al views of yst. yst t neither he/she nor his/her asso servesas anofficerofnorhasanyfinan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneoftheli

17、stedcorporationsoranythirdpartyhasprovided oragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnection withthisreporttoany ofyst,the orthegroupcompany(ies). Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanytthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanymaking activities for any of the listed corporation revi

18、ewed; or (ii) do ve any individual employed by or asso The views his report accura y reflect al views of yst. yst t neither he/she nor his/her asso servesas anofficerofnorhasanyfinan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthelistedcorporationsoranythirdpartyhasprovided oragreedto

19、provideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnection withthisreporttoany ofyst,the orthegroupcompany(ies). Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanytthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanymaking activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do ve any individual employed by or ass

20、o ted nygroupcompany(ies)the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do ve any finan erest in relation to the listed reviewedor(iv)donot,presentlyorhelast12months,haveanyinvestmentingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationUndertakings of I(We)am (are) conferred

21、 the alQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustry bytheSecuritiesAsso tionofChinaandhaveasthe yst.Ihereby ethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligence,alandprudentethodsandlegitimate information is his report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have n

22、ever been, am not, and will not compensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecific Disclosure with respect to the CompanymendationsoropinionsThe company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by withthecodenu

23、mberReleasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting . The company yze the values or trendsofsecuritiesand relatedproductsorotherrelevantaffectingfactors,provideinvestment etc. by iing securities research reports solely to its c nts.ysisadviceonsecuriti

24、esvaluation/investmentThe Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The c nts may contact complian for the relevant disclosure materials or log o for theysts qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates Security Investment Rating：Whenmeasuringth

25、edifferencewedefinethetermsasnthemarkupofthesecuritytofthemarketsarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthis n20%upsideovera6-monthBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten20%upsideovera12-monthOutperform: Share price performance is expected to generate n10%downsideto10%upsideovera12-montherform:Sh

26、arepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten10-20%downsideovera12-monthSELL:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemore Industry Investment Rating:n20%downsideovera12-monthWhen measuring the difference betnthemarkupoftheindustryindexand report, we define the terms as follows:t of the marketsarkwithins

27、ix monthsafter therelease of Overweight：Industry performs ntofthewholeEqual weight： Industry performs about the same tofthewholemarket；IndustryperformstofthewholeWe would like to remind t different security research institutionsadopt differentrating terminologiesand ratingstandards. Weadopt theratin

28、g method mend the relative weightings of investment. The c nts s to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual such as their portfolio structures and other sary factors. The c nts shall read through the whole report so as to he complete opinions information and shall not rely solely on th

29、e investment ratings to reach . The Company employs its own industry classification system. industryclassificationisavailableatournelifyouHSCEIisthearkhisThis report is to be used solely by the c nts of SWS Research . ( subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as “Company”)

30、. The Company will not deem any ersonasitsc ntnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisThisreportisbasedonpublicinformation,however,theauthenticity,accuracy orcompletenessofsuchinformationisnot warranted bythe Company.The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the c nts reference

31、 only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invi ion for the sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments.The c nts t the text message reminder mendation arenon abriefcommunicationof theresearchwhich are subject to the complete report released on the Companys website (http:

32、/w). The c nts may ask for follow-up explanations if they so wish.Thematerials, opinionsand estimatescontained hereinonlyreflect thejudgmentof the Companyonthe daythis reportis released. The pri ,valuesand investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to here ay fluctuate.

33、At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein.Save and except as otherwise stipulated consultingserviThe c nts shall consider the his report, the contactor upon page of the report only acts as the liaison who

34、shall not provide erests ay affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their s solely on this report. The c nts should make investment s independently and solely at your own risk. Please be t in event, the companywill not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the c n

35、ts. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and servireferred to hereay not be suitable for certain c nts and shall not constitute al advice for individual c nts. The Company does not ensuret this report fully takeso consideration of the particular investmen