代谢增长论市场份额竞争学习不确定性和技术产业-课件

代谢增长论：

市场份额竞争，学习不确定性，

和技术（产业）小波PingChen陈平CenterforNewPoliticalEconomyFudanUniversity,Shanghai,ChinaPresentedat14thISSConferenceatBrisbane,AustraliaJuly2,2019北京大学国家发展研究院2019年11月22日代谢增长论：

市场份额竞争，学习不确定性，

和技术（产业）小1灵感的由来：观潮而思四十五年文革长征：太原重机厂的调查（1967年春）》西方禁运：劳动分工受市场规模限制李约瑟，费正清，裴宜理，黄宗智，和普里戈金》用物理学方法研究历史（1979-85）布鲁塞尔学派：生命起源》蚂蚁的劳动分工模型（1977-81）》现代劳动分工与东西方文明的分岔》人和蚂蚁的差别？日本物理学家的观察》引入文化因子（1983-87）从自组织》经济复杂系统》演化动力学》复杂演化经济学理论生态学的复杂性佯谬》亚当-斯密悖论》一般斯密原理（2019，2019）中国模式的辩论》挑战内生增长论和知识积累伦》代谢增长论（2019-14）灵感的由来：观潮而思四十五年文革长征：太原重机厂的调查（192修正经济学的基本观念市场竞争的本质：价格竞争还是市场份额竞争？价格机制：边际定价，成本加成定价，还是策略定价(strategicpricing)?技术进步的基本模式：可预测的风险和不可预测的不确定性？经济发展的基本动力是知识扩散，还是资源与市场的开发、竞争与淘汰？经济决策是完全信息下的理性优化决策，还是陌生机遇下的试错和模仿？修正经济学的基本观念市场竞争的本质：价格竞争还是市场份额竞争3经济学的基本问题（1）经济增长是否受资源约束（马尔萨斯问题）？》新古典人性的自私贪婪假设=资源无限》线性优化模型资源有限》演化经济学的非线性竞争演化模型（2）如何描写技术更新对经济发展的作用？新古典经济学：噪声驱动》连续变化》优化过程理论生态学：小波更迭》连续与跃迁》试错过程经济学的基本问题（1）经济增长是否受资源约束（马尔萨斯问题）4李约瑟问题-华勒斯坦佯谬

》

劳动分工和东西方文明分岔》

代谢增长论》产业（文明）兴衰生态模型引入经济学(Samuelson1971)文化因子引入学习竞争(Chen1987)资源约束》市场份额竞争(陈平2019)斯密悖论》复杂系统》稳定性与复杂性的矛盾(Chen2019)逻辑斯蒂小波》创造性毁灭》知识新陈代谢》挑战内生增长论(Chen2019,2019)李约瑟问题-华勒斯坦佯谬》

劳动分工和东西方文明分岔》

代5一石五鸟（1）生态学》引入行为因素（2）个人主义与集体主义的竞争策略与赶超模式（3）经济学》价格竞争转为市场份额竞争，边际定价、成本加成定价，与策略定价（4）经济学与复杂科学》重新定义国富=规模经济+范围经济（资源多样性）》新的绿色增长方式（5）一般斯密原理：劳动分工受市场规模、资源种类、环境涨落的限制（6）经济动力学统一理论（微观，中观，宏观，制度）的共同模块》生命周期的小波模型（7）虚拟经济重新生态化》社会人与经济生态一石五鸟（1）生态学》引入行为因素6FundamentalCausesofAsianEmergence:TwoCompetingPerspectivesNeo-classicalperspective:nothingnew>techdiffusion+highinvestment>export-ledgrowth>convergenceingrowthandcultureEvolutionaryperspective:ecologicalcrisis+newwaveofindustrialrevolution>structuralchangesineconomiesandorganization>riseofEastAsia&declineofWestTheoreticalchallenge:whichgrowththeoryisrelevantintheglobalage?FundamentalCausesofAsianEm7WhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevanttoModernHistory?AverageAnnualGDPGrowthRate(1913-2019)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Period WEuro EEuro Asia US fUSSR Japan China---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1913-50 1.19 0.86 0.82 2.84 2.15 2.21 -0.021950-73 4.79 4.86 5.17 3.93 4.84 9.29 5.021973-2019 2.21 1.01 5.41 2.94 -0.42 2.71 6.72---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Source:Maddison(2019),UNStatisticsWhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevan8UnevenGrowthinGlobalization

(AnnualRealGDPgrowthrateperdecade)Period 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-------------------------------------------------------------------- China

6.2

9.310.410.5

Japan 3.8 4.6 1.2 0.7 US 3.2 3.2 3.4 1.6 Germany 2.9 2.3 1.9 0.9 EastAsia 4.4 5.5 3.3

4.0LatinAmerica 6.1 1.5 3.2 3.1 EastEurope 4.4 2.3-2.0 4.3WestEurope 3.1 2.3 2.1 1.1Australia&NZ 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.0World 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.5------------------------------------------------------------------ (DataSource:UNStatistics) UnevenGrowthinGlobalization9MainIssuesinEconomicTheory1.Equilibriumvs.non-equilibrium

growththeory>convergence/divergencevs.rise&fall2.Conceptofknowledgeandnatureoftechnology>staticvs.evolutionaryperspective3.Populationdynamicsofcreativedestruction>resourceconstrainsandtechnologywavelets4.Learningcompetitionandculturestrategy>differentgrowthmodeinWestandEast>labor-savingvs.resource-savingtechnology5.EastAsiaandChinaexperience>technologycycle,mixedeconomy,andhelpinghandMainIssuesinEconomicTheory10NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

Convergencevs.divergencestoryExogenousgrowththeory(Solow1956):ConstantReturns>Convergence

Endogenousgrowththeory(Romer1990):Learningbydoing=KnowledgeAccumulation(Arrow1962)>IncreasingReturns>Divergence>PersistentdividebetweenRichandPoorPuzzle:howtounderstandriseand

fallofcivilizationsandgreatpowers?Metabolicgrowththeory(Chen1987,2019,2019,2019)NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

C11EconomicInsightandTheoreticalModelingAdamSmith>divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextentMarshall>

economicsshouldbeclosetobiologyanddynamicsHayek>knowledgeisadiscoveryprocessSchumpeter>developmentmeanscreativedestructionFrankKnight>riskanduncertaintyinmarketEconomicInsightandTheoretic12MethodologicalIssue:HowtoDescribe

TechnologyAdvancement?Technologyasrandomshock:Solowresidual,RBCschool>macroeconometricsTechnologyascontinuoustrajectory:knowledgecapital,increasingreturns>Technologyaslogisticgrowthturnedintologisticwavelets>populationdynamicsforSchumpeter’screativedestructionMethodologicalIssue:HowtoD13Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logistic)Growth

a1=0.6,a2=1,a3=1.4;K=4,Rlogis=4.0Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logisti14TheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterminestheSizeofMarketExtent?Smiththeorem:divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextent

=marketniche>dependsonresourceandtechnology>logisticgrowth=varyingreturnstoscale>sourceofnonlinearity&complexityNeoclassicalproductionfunction>ignoresresourceconstraints>unlimited(exponential)growth>equilibriumthinkingandconsumerism>rootofecologicalcrisis+financialcrisisTheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterm15EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

USAutomobileIndustry

(OutputasPercentageofGDP)EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

16TechnologyWavelets,GrowthCycles,and

CreativeDestructionin

SpeciesCompetitionModelTechnologyWavelets,GrowthCy17ChinaApproachinAdaptingTechCycle:HelpingHandatVaryingStagesI(initialstage).>strategicplanning,technologyimport,techtransferfromscience&defensesectortocivilianindustryII(take-offstage).>opencompetitionundermixedeconomy,selectiveopeningin

industrialpark,governmentmatchingfundforFDI,marketregulationforvirtuouscompetitionIII(maturestage).>breakingmonopoly+encouraginginnovationIV(transitionstage).>assistanceforclose-downobsoleteindustry,re-educationoflaid-offworkers,reformpolicy&stabilizingpolicyChinaApproachinAdaptingTec18ObservablePatternsin

ChangingReturntoScaleCobb-Douglasproductionfunction>static(fixed)returntoscaleLogisticgrowth>logisticcurve>dynamicreturntoscale>dynamicincreasingreturns(firsthalf)+decreasingreturns(secondhalf)+constantreturns(infinitefuture)toscaleSpeciescompetition>logisticwavelets>rise&fallofwaveletsObservablePatternsin

Changin19OriginofCultureDiversity:

CultureAsLearningStrategyforEmergingMarkets&ResourcesEquilibriumthinking>cultureconvergence>universalvalueandinstituteNon-equilibriumthinking>culturediversity>varyingstrategiesforadaptingtochangingenvironment>coexistenceofindividualistandcollectivistsspeciesOriginofCultureDiversity:

20WhyEast

(AsiaandChina)IsDifferentfromWest?Twomodesofdivisionoflaborinhistory:East>resource-saving/labor-intensivetechnology>agriculturerevolution>riseofEastWest>labor-saving/resource-intensivetechnology>industrialrevolution>riseofWestCrisesofmoderncivilization:Globalwarming>ecologicalcrisisJobcrisis>machinecrowdingoutpeopleWhatistheimpactofinformationrevolution?WhyEast(AsiaandChina)IsD21WallersteinParadoxand

CausesofCultureDiversityHistoricalparadox>Whyresource-richEuropeanneedsmoreexistencespacewhilehighlypopulatedChinaneedsmorelaborduringcivilizationbifurcationabout14-17thcentury?Ecologicalconstraintsforgrowth>resource/populationratio>strategicchoiceunderuncertaintyCultureorientationshapedbyenvironment>laborsavingvs.resourcesavingtechnology>individualismvs.collectivism>pathdependenceindevelopmentprocessWallersteinParadoxand

Cause22ThreeTypesofLearningStrategiesandRiskAttitudesLearningbydoing(Smith:pin-making)>knowledgeaccumulation>gradualchange>risk-neutralcultureLearningbytrying(pioneersinfire,electricity)>knowledgecreation>abruptchange>risk-takingcultureLearningbyimitating(late-comers)>catch-upgame>risk-aversecultureModelingapproach:fromstatictheoryofriskaversiontononlineardynamicsofvaryingriskbehaviorThreeTypesofLearningStrate23CultureFactorandLearningStrategyin

FacingNewandUncertainTechnologyBehavioralfactorR(a)0<a<1Collectivism=riskaverse-1<a<0Individualism=risktakingCultureFactorandLearningSt24Resource,Culture,andLearningStrategyIndividualisticspeciesneedslarger

existencespace.Europeanpastorallife>labor-savingbutresource-consuming

economy

Chinesegrain-production>resource-saving

butlabor-intensive

economyResource,Culture,andLearnin25CompetitiveExclusion&CoexistenceinTwoSpeciesModelTheconditionofco-existenceTwocollectivistscannotcoexist;Twoindividualistsmaycoexist;No.ofspeciesNo.ofresourcesCompetitiveExclusion&Coexis26LandUsein1993(Maddison2019,p.28)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RegionTotal(mhc)Arable(%)Pop(m)ArabLandperhead(hc)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China 959.7 10 1178.4 0.08Japan 37.8 11.8 124.8 0.04India 328.8 51.6 899.0 0.19Europe 487.7 27.8 506.9 0.26US 980.9 19.1 239.2 0.73USSR 2240.3 10.3 293.0 0.79Canada 997.6 4.6 28.4 1.58Australia 771.4 6.0 17.8 2.62Resourceintensity:Westmode~10timesormoreofEastmodeLandUsein1993(Maddison20127Catch-UpGamebetweenInnovatorsandImitators

ComplexpatternsofriseandfallbetweenindividualistandcollectivismCollectivistwillcatchandwinbyimitatingexistingtechnologyIndividualistwillsurvivebyfasterinnovation&learningbytryingemergingtechnologyCollectivisthasgreaterstabilityunderfluctuatingenvironmentAmixedsystemofindividualistsandcollectivistsismorestablethanapuresystemoftwoindividualistsCatch-UpGamebetweenInnovato28时代变迁与规范更新罗马俱乐部报告》增长的极限》系统工程兴起（196？）数学的突破与质疑：突变，分岔、混沌（1970’s）》生物学家怀疑(Gould)资本主义与社会主义竞争谁胜谁负？》普里戈金不信（1986），苏东瓦解后赞赏（1992）。劳动分工的优化模式（杨小凯）与演化模式（陈平）（1990）。金融危机与中国崛起》接受代谢增长论时代变迁与规范更新罗马俱乐部报告》增长的极限》系统工程兴起（29方法论问题真实经济与货币经济均衡与非均衡的机制线性与非线性思维理论与计算机模拟萨缪尔森问题(2019)：陈平工作是否会产生新的规范(paradigm)?普里戈金问题：混沌产生有序》什么的新的秩序？陈平探索：从复杂经济学》演化经济学》代谢经济学方法论问题真实经济与货币经济30ConclusionGrowthisanevolutionarydynamicsinnon-equilibrium

opensystem,whichismorecomplexthanoptimizationprocessinequilibriumclosedsystemPopulationdynamicsisausefulframeworkforeconomicdynamics,whichisshapedbyecologicalconstraintsandmarket-sharecompetitionMetabolicgrowththeorydescribesessentialfeaturesofcreativedestructioninmoderneconomy.Logisticwaveletisabettermathematicalrepresentationfortechnologyprogressandgrowthcyclesthanharmoniccycleandrandomshocksinneoclassicaleconomics.Liberalizationpolicyin

WashingtonConsensusismisleadingforemergingandtransitioneconomies,sinceitignorestheuncertaintyandsunkcostsintechnologyadvancementandunevenglobalizationConclusionGrowthisanevoluti31ReferencesChen,Ping,"OriginoftheDivisionofLaborandaStochasticMechanismofDifferentiation,"EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,30,246-250(1987).Chen,Ping,“EvolutionaryEconomicDynamics:PersistentBusinessCycles,DisruptiveTechnology,andtheTrade-OffbetweenStabilityandComplexity,”inDopfer,Kurt,ed.,TheEvolutionaryFoundationsofEconomics,Chapter15,pp.472-505,

CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,(2019).Chen,Ping,EquilibriumIllusion,EconomicComplexity,andEvolutionaryFoundationofEconomicAnalysis,”EvolutionaryandInstitutionalEconomicsReview,5(1),81-127(2019).Chen,Ping,EconomicComplexityandEquilibriumIllusion,Routledge,London(2019).Arrow,KennethJ."TheEconomicImplicationsofLearningbyDoing",ReviewofEconomicStudies,39,155(1962).Maddison,Angus,ChineseEconomicPerformanceintheLongRun,OECD,Paris(2019).Solow,RobertM."AContributiontotheTheoryofEconomicGrowth,"QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,70(1),65-94(1956).Romer,PaulM.“IncreasingReturnsandLong-RunGrowth,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,94,1002-38(1986).Rostow,WaltW.TheStagesofEconomicGrowth,3rded.,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge(1990).Prigogine,Ilya,Allen,PeterM.,andRobertHerman,“LongTermTrendsandtheEvolutionofComplexity”,inErvinLaszloed.,GoalsforaGlobalCommunity:AReporttotheClubofRome,PergamonPress,Oxford(1977).ReferencesChen,Ping,"Origin32AcknowledgementsThegrowthcyclesbasedonspeciescompetitionmodelwasinspiredbyworksdevelopedinBrusselsandAustinin1970s-1980s,includingPeterAllen,St.LouisDeneubourg,GregoryNicolis,I.Prigogine,WaltRostow,andDavidKendrick.AcknowledgementsThegrowthcyc33ContactI/ContactInformationpchenccer.e34代谢增长论：

市场份额竞争，学习不确定性，

和技术（产业）小波PingChen陈平CenterforNewPoliticalEconomyFudanUniversity,Shanghai,ChinaPresentedat14thISSConferenceatBrisbane,AustraliaJuly2,2019北京大学国家发展研究院2019年11月22日代谢增长论：

市场份额竞争，学习不确定性，

和技术（产业）小35灵感的由来：观潮而思四十五年文革长征：太原重机厂的调查（1967年春）》西方禁运：劳动分工受市场规模限制李约瑟，费正清，裴宜理，黄宗智，和普里戈金》用物理学方法研究历史（1979-85）布鲁塞尔学派：生命起源》蚂蚁的劳动分工模型（1977-81）》现代劳动分工与东西方文明的分岔》人和蚂蚁的差别？日本物理学家的观察》引入文化因子（1983-87）从自组织》经济复杂系统》演化动力学》复杂演化经济学理论生态学的复杂性佯谬》亚当-斯密悖论》一般斯密原理（2019，2019）中国模式的辩论》挑战内生增长论和知识积累伦》代谢增长论（2019-14）灵感的由来：观潮而思四十五年文革长征：太原重机厂的调查（1936修正经济学的基本观念市场竞争的本质：价格竞争还是市场份额竞争？价格机制：边际定价，成本加成定价，还是策略定价(strategicpricing)?技术进步的基本模式：可预测的风险和不可预测的不确定性？经济发展的基本动力是知识扩散，还是资源与市场的开发、竞争与淘汰？经济决策是完全信息下的理性优化决策，还是陌生机遇下的试错和模仿？修正经济学的基本观念市场竞争的本质：价格竞争还是市场份额竞争37经济学的基本问题（1）经济增长是否受资源约束（马尔萨斯问题）？》新古典人性的自私贪婪假设=资源无限》线性优化模型资源有限》演化经济学的非线性竞争演化模型（2）如何描写技术更新对经济发展的作用？新古典经济学：噪声驱动》连续变化》优化过程理论生态学：小波更迭》连续与跃迁》试错过程经济学的基本问题（1）经济增长是否受资源约束（马尔萨斯问题）38李约瑟问题-华勒斯坦佯谬

》

劳动分工和东西方文明分岔》

代谢增长论》产业（文明）兴衰生态模型引入经济学(Samuelson1971)文化因子引入学习竞争(Chen1987)资源约束》市场份额竞争(陈平2019)斯密悖论》复杂系统》稳定性与复杂性的矛盾(Chen2019)逻辑斯蒂小波》创造性毁灭》知识新陈代谢》挑战内生增长论(Chen2019,2019)李约瑟问题-华勒斯坦佯谬》

劳动分工和东西方文明分岔》

代39一石五鸟（1）生态学》引入行为因素（2）个人主义与集体主义的竞争策略与赶超模式（3）经济学》价格竞争转为市场份额竞争，边际定价、成本加成定价，与策略定价（4）经济学与复杂科学》重新定义国富=规模经济+范围经济（资源多样性）》新的绿色增长方式（5）一般斯密原理：劳动分工受市场规模、资源种类、环境涨落的限制（6）经济动力学统一理论（微观，中观，宏观，制度）的共同模块》生命周期的小波模型（7）虚拟经济重新生态化》社会人与经济生态一石五鸟（1）生态学》引入行为因素40FundamentalCausesofAsianEmergence:TwoCompetingPerspectivesNeo-classicalperspective:nothingnew>techdiffusion+highinvestment>export-ledgrowth>convergenceingrowthandcultureEvolutionaryperspective:ecologicalcrisis+newwaveofindustrialrevolution>structuralchangesineconomiesandorganization>riseofEastAsia&declineofWestTheoreticalchallenge:whichgrowththeoryisrelevantintheglobalage?FundamentalCausesofAsianEm41WhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevanttoModernHistory?AverageAnnualGDPGrowthRate(1913-2019)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Period WEuro EEuro Asia US fUSSR Japan China---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1913-50 1.19 0.86 0.82 2.84 2.15 2.21 -0.021950-73 4.79 4.86 5.17 3.93 4.84 9.29 5.021973-2019 2.21 1.01 5.41 2.94 -0.42 2.71 6.72---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Source:Maddison(2019),UNStatisticsWhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevan42UnevenGrowthinGlobalization

(AnnualRealGDPgrowthrateperdecade)Period 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-------------------------------------------------------------------- China

6.2

9.310.410.5

Japan 3.8 4.6 1.2 0.7 US 3.2 3.2 3.4 1.6 Germany 2.9 2.3 1.9 0.9 EastAsia 4.4 5.5 3.3

4.0LatinAmerica 6.1 1.5 3.2 3.1 EastEurope 4.4 2.3-2.0 4.3WestEurope 3.1 2.3 2.1 1.1Australia&NZ 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.0World 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.5------------------------------------------------------------------ (DataSource:UNStatistics) UnevenGrowthinGlobalization43MainIssuesinEconomicTheory1.Equilibriumvs.non-equilibrium

growththeory>convergence/divergencevs.rise&fall2.Conceptofknowledgeandnatureoftechnology>staticvs.evolutionaryperspective3.Populationdynamicsofcreativedestruction>resourceconstrainsandtechnologywavelets4.Learningcompetitionandculturestrategy>differentgrowthmodeinWestandEast>labor-savingvs.resource-savingtechnology5.EastAsiaandChinaexperience>technologycycle,mixedeconomy,andhelpinghandMainIssuesinEconomicTheory44NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

Convergencevs.divergencestoryExogenousgrowththeory(Solow1956):ConstantReturns>Convergence

Endogenousgrowththeory(Romer1990):Learningbydoing=KnowledgeAccumulation(Arrow1962)>IncreasingReturns>Divergence>PersistentdividebetweenRichandPoorPuzzle:howtounderstandriseand

fallofcivilizationsandgreatpowers?Metabolicgrowththeory(Chen1987,2019,2019,2019)NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

C45EconomicInsightandTheoreticalModelingAdamSmith>divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextentMarshall>

economicsshouldbeclosetobiologyanddynamicsHayek>knowledgeisadiscoveryprocessSchumpeter>developmentmeanscreativedestructionFrankKnight>riskanduncertaintyinmarketEconomicInsightandTheoretic46MethodologicalIssue:HowtoDescribe

TechnologyAdvancement?Technologyasrandomshock:Solowresidual,RBCschool>macroeconometricsTechnologyascontinuoustrajectory:knowledgecapital,increasingreturns>Technologyaslogisticgrowthturnedintologisticwavelets>populationdynamicsforSchumpeter’screativedestructionMethodologicalIssue:HowtoD47Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logistic)Growth

a1=0.6,a2=1,a3=1.4;K=4,Rlogis=4.0Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logisti48TheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterminestheSizeofMarketExtent?Smiththeorem:divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextent

=marketniche>dependsonresourceandtechnology>logisticgrowth=varyingreturnstoscale>sourceofnonlinearity&complexityNeoclassicalproductionfunction>ignoresresourceconstraints>unlimited(exponential)growth>equilibriumthinkingandconsumerism>rootofecologicalcrisis+financialcrisisTheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterm49EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

USAutomobileIndustry

(OutputasPercentageofGDP)EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

50TechnologyWavelets,GrowthCycles,and

CreativeDestructionin

SpeciesCompetitionModelTechnologyWavelets,GrowthCy51ChinaApproachinAdaptingTechCycle:HelpingHandatVaryingStagesI(initialstage).>strategicplanning,technologyimport,techtransferfromscience&defensesectortocivilianindustryII(take-offstage).>opencompetitionundermixedeconomy,selectiveopeningin

industrialpark,governmentmatchingfundforFDI,marketregulationforvirtuouscompetitionIII(maturestage).>breakingmonopoly+encouraginginnovationIV(transitionstage).>assistanceforclose-downobsoleteindustry,re-educationoflaid-offworkers,reformpolicy&stabilizingpolicyChinaApproachinAdaptingTec52ObservablePatternsin

ChangingReturntoScaleCobb-Douglasproductionfunction>static(fixed)returntoscaleLogisticgrowth>logisticcurve>dynamicreturntoscale>dynamicincreasingreturns(firsthalf)+decreasingreturns(secondhalf)+constantreturns(infinitefuture)toscaleSpeciescompetition>logisticwavelets>rise&fallofwaveletsObservablePatternsin

Changin53OriginofCultureDiversity:

CultureAsLearningStrategyforEmergingMarkets&ResourcesEquilibriumthinking>cultureconvergence>universalvalueandinstituteNon-equilibriumthinking>culturediversity>varyingstrategiesforadaptingtochangingenvironment>coexistenceofindividualistandcollectivistsspeciesOriginofCultureDiversity:

54WhyEast

(AsiaandChina)IsDifferentfromWest?Twomodesofdivisionoflaborinhistory:East>resource-saving/labor-intensivetechnology>agriculturerevolution>riseofEastWest>labor-saving/resource-intensivetechnology>industrialrevolution>riseofWestCrisesofmoderncivilization:Globalwarming>ecologicalcrisisJobcrisis>machinecrowdingoutpeopleWhatistheimpactofinformationrevolution?WhyEast(AsiaandChina)IsD55WallersteinParadoxand

CausesofCultureDiversityHistoricalparadox>Whyresource-richEuropeanneedsmoreexistencespacewhilehighlypopulatedChinaneedsmorelaborduringcivilizationbifurcationabout14-17thcentury?Ecologicalconstraintsforgrowth>resource/populationratio>strategicchoiceunderuncertaintyCultureorientationshapedbyenvironment>laborsavingvs.resourcesavingtechnology>individualismvs.collectivism>pathdependenceindevelopmentprocessWallersteinParadoxand

Cause56ThreeTypesofLearningStrategiesandRiskAttitudesLearningbydoing(Smith:pin-making)>knowledgeaccumulation>gradualchange>risk-neutralcultureLearningbytrying(pioneersinfire,electricity)>knowledgecreation>abruptchange>risk-takingcultureLearningbyimitating(late-comers)>catch-upgame>risk-aversecultureModelingapproach:fromstatictheoryofriskaversiontononlineardynamicsofvaryingriskbehaviorThreeTypesofLearningStrate57CultureFactorandLearningStrategyin

FacingNewandUncertainTechnologyBehavioralfactorR(a)0<a<1Collectivism=riskaverse-1<a<0Individualism=risktakingCultureFactorandLearningSt58Resource,Culture,andLearningStrategyIndividualisticspeciesneedslarger

existencespace.Europeanpastorallife>labor-savingbutresource-consuming

economy

Chinesegrain-production>resource-saving

butlabor-intensive

economyResource,Culture,andLearnin59CompetitiveExclusion&CoexistenceinTwoSpeciesModelTheconditionofco-existenceTwocollectivistscannotcoexist;Twoindividualistsmaycoexist;No.ofspeciesNo.ofresourcesCompetitiveExclusion&Coexis60LandUsein1993(Maddison2019,p.28)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RegionTotal(mhc)Arable(%)Pop(m)ArabLandperhead(hc)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China 959.7 10 1178.4 0.08Japan 37.8 11.8 124.8 0.04India 328.8 51.6 899.0 0.19Europe 487.7 27.8 506.9 0.26US 980.9 19.1 239.2 0.73USSR 2240.3 10.3 293.0 0.79Canada 997.6 4.6 28.4 1.58Australia 771.4 6.0 17.8 2.62Resourceintensity:Westmode~10timesormoreofEastmodeLandUsein1993(Maddison20161Catch-UpGamebetweenInnovatorsandImitators

ComplexpatternsofriseandfallbetweenindividualistandcollectivismCollectivistwillcatchandwinbyimitatingexistingtechnologyIndividualistwillsurvivebyfasterinnovation&learningbytryingemergingtechnologyCollectivisthasgreaterstabilityunderfluctuatingenvironmentAmixedsystemofindividualistsandcollectivistsismorestablethanapuresystemoftwoindividualistsCatch-UpGamebetweenInnovato62时代变迁与规范更新罗马俱乐部报告》增长的极限》系统工程兴起（196？）数学的突破与质疑：突变，分岔、混沌（1970’s）》生物学家怀疑(Gould)资本主义与社会主义竞争谁胜谁负？》普里戈金不信（1986），苏东瓦解后赞赏（1992）。劳动分工的优化模式（杨小凯）与演化模式（陈平）（1990）。金融危机与中国崛起》接受代谢增长论时代变迁与规范更新罗马俱乐部报告》增长的极限》系统工程兴起（63方法论问题真实经济与货币经济均衡与非均衡的机制线性与非线性思维理论与计算机模拟萨缪尔森问题(2019)：陈平工作是否会产生