2022年IPO市场总结及2023年策略展望：破发步入常态化阶段顺势而为打新仍可期

破发步入常态化阶段，顺势而为打新仍可期0101020203030404050523//CONTENTS4/202221Q4022542022Q44202221Q4022542022Q42022年IPO募资规模再创新高，全年打新收益约为同期4成水平444%2022Q4%2022Q466121623.68/1441.73/1173.6820212022A/B121623.68/1441.73/1173.682021100%100%ABCABCABCABC2021Q140.9328.13341.40290.23217.85460.64416.28289.62842.97734.64519.172021Q2536.27250.920.60436.93378.79246.08616.79494.52339.31665.992021Q35.75.27424.22342.10203.73974.78859.47546.9959.992021Q427.62407.87327.92236.69282.52225.4509.68562.63433.1322021632.25307.170.4103904.362334.7372734577.393641.922378.2820226.8726.93615.8917.81380.17872.95847.05766.58681.73682022Q435.986.5625.32210.102022Q268.895317.92314.80295.31519.79459.03382.292022Q323.2656234.86206.72379.70370.14327.73637.82590.57486.622022Q4183.96.7790.974.5536255.96224.702.90.99194.602.4658.2349.960.2566.326.513.702.742.11.9874.4868.637.7138.093.6029.698.3804.1324.1043.0441.988.2874.3463.864.645数据来源：国泰君安证券研究，Wind。注：数据截至2022年12月31日；按照上市日口径统计，入围率按照100%计算。主板新股收益按照开板日均价卖出计算，科创板及创业板新股收益按照上市日均价卖出计算，创业板考虑10%锁定6个月，锁定期未到新股锁定部分按12月31日收盘价计算收益，后文新股收益计算方式同此。420222022202142022IPO4Q440%40%2022 ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC2022Q12022Q129.8511.815.50187.81-43.54158.80-39.75112.82-35.58180.57178.45156.68398.23349.06274.992378.17-6.226.90-5.684.91-5.0812.0411.9010.452022Q120222022Q22022Q22022Q229.8568.8968.8968.8911.81443.1743.175.509.99.939.93144.2715155.54-22.55132.98119.0612122.21-21.15101.0677.2490.190.1677.0535.984405.01-87.09317.9236.563394.46-79.66314.8025.32358.0358.08-62.77295.31210.10629.4629.44519.79167.43559.8559.84459.03108.064458.16-75.87382.293022242627264.987.07.07-5.65.55-5.293.892.694.14.10-3.282.961.33228.93-7.2612.231.35228.18-6.6412.110.94225.58-5.2311.362022Q32022Q323.2613.717.56256.41-21.55223.32163.30494.45476.34422.13-94.40774.13713.38592.9927269.508.276.0519.02-7.1718.32-6.6416.24-5.902022Q320222022Q422022Q422022Q42020222020222202223.2612.812.8312.83134.84134.8413.7876.8776.877.563.93.963.9626.9326.93234.861122.78103.77722.53615.89206.721108.0490.97612.37-94.57517.81151.3386.986.9874.55453.26-73.09380.17379.701167.62-28.27139.361247.66-374.70872.95370.14151151.72-26.17125.551200.98-353.93847.05327.731138.10118.211074.99-308.41766.58637.8230303.23-47.27255.962105.03-481.351623.68590.57267.94267.94-43.24224.701890.22-448.491441.73486.62229.04229.04-32.32196.721555.19-381.501173.683822172874634222262832926.1877.62-4.714.9816.20-46.96.90-4.364.4815.60-7.696.893.986.26.28-3.314.2213.96-6.706.239.045.855.85-2.713.717.77-3.685.058.815.15.14-2.443.256.58-3.264.247.8064.87-2.523.1261231Wind20222021205020221~12主板上市数量创业板上市数量科创板上市数量 主板破发率(右轴)创业板破发率(右轴)科创板破发率(右轴)2590%四季度创业板上市新股破发率小幅抬升80%70%60%50%40%30%20%20222021205020221~12主板上市数量创业板上市数量科创板上市数量 主板破发率(右轴)创业板破发率(右轴)科创板破发率(右轴)2590%四季度创业板上市新股破发率小幅抬升80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1IPO420223~521.43%20223~521.43%24.24%2022Q424.24%88202219.59%202219.59%2022 ABCABCABCABC20222022202220221223374.052.0576.0470.4214.0150.7237.331.335617.1015.8017.847.116.474.431.7714.293.0411.7792.7371.2231.8023.6515.6666.5553.7620.802022202220222022455665.604.56113.4785-50.38-43.43-28.5020.33-5.40-21.5455.932.178.694.3587.8187.3383.1605.0999.9589.68.744.67488.90.86280.49270.90240.66394.37364.48314.1620222022202220227889949.812.8688.8785.26.5022.9219.448.6520.28108.5184.013906139117.33.96379.70374.41341.30530.87498.81419.39392.834.204.1287-22.92-23.71-22.22820222022202220222.90995.194.602.4658.2349.9650.2566.3256.5153.702.742.119874.4868.637.7138.0933.6029.6915.31104.3388.3804.1324.1017.7543.0441.9838.2874.3463.8654.647WWind202144 2021442022Q4Q42022AAA//AAAA//BC2022Q1326.7221.7833.49%180.57178.45156.680.550.550.48258.4221.54-0.15-0.56-0.55-0.512022Q2387.1027.6548.24%405.01394.46358.081.051.020.93183.3215.28-0.19-87.09-79.66-62.77-0.48-0.43-0.342022Q326606.5223.3344.96%494.45476.34422.130.820.790.70333.9720.87-0.16-94.40-0.34-0.32-0.282022Q422316.6314.3941.53%167.62151.72138.100.530.480.446107.7617.96-28.27-26.17-0.26-0.24-09721.2642.34%1247.661200.981074.990.760.730.6646883.4719.21-16.84%-374.70-353.93-308.41-0.42-0.40-0.352022AAA//AAAA//BC2022Q123344.5214.9865.31%187.81158.80112.820.550.460.337187.2726.75-43.54-39.75-35.58-0.23-0.21-0.192022Q222196.588.9446.69%155.54122.2190.160.790.620.46475.4618.86-22.55-21.15-0.30-0.28-0.172022Q327341.0112.6348.59%256.41223.32163.300.750.650.48177.9016.17-9.56%-21.55-0.12-0.09-0.072022Q421220.6210.5146.52%122.78108.0486.980.560.490.39796.5013.79-9.87%-0.20-0.18-0.132022931102.7311.8651.81%722.53612.37453.260.660.560.4129537.1218.52-10.62%-106.64-94.57-73.09-0.20-0.18-0.1481231Wind42.3%2.0%1.4%20228.7%-21.6%-29.4%-31.3%-20.3%%2021%%%42.3%2.0%1.4%20228.7%-21.6%-29.4%-31.3%-20.3%%2021%%%0.64%0.22%3.04%2.57%4.16%3.20%2.06%20.67%0.38%0.13%2.92%2.47%3.59%2.86%30.45%0.26%0.09%2.62%2.25%3.07%2.51%50.27%0.15%0.05%2.04%2.31%5%70.19%0.11%0.04%0.13%0.08%0.03%0.96%0.99%0.09%0.05%0.02%0.93%0.85%0.71%0.90%0.72%00.07%0.04%0.01%0.71%0.65%0.54%0.78%0.69%0.55%120222021IPO40220222021202220215555202220222022综合交通运输采掘房地产建筑装饰商业贸易休闲服务银行农林牧渔通信纺综合交通运输采掘房地产建筑装饰商业贸易休闲服务银行农林牧渔通信纺织服装有色金属化工公用事业汽车食品饮料机械设备家用电器医药生物轻工制造钢铁非银金融电气设备建筑材料计算机国防军工传媒202220%%0%-30%-40%-20%9WWindABCABCACABCABCAC 830.8644.33593.40636.96517.96360.068230953.46-236.02-219.15-78.12-67.56-4ABCABCACABCABCAC 830.8644.33593.40636.96517.96360.068230953.46-236.02-219.15-78.12-67.56-49.85-314.14-286.70-230.51 07376184.212.9349.594.22-5.13-4.76-3.93-2.69-2.33-4.19-3.82-3.0743Wind214202220222022Q4202220224695202252022AABBCCAABBCCAABB%CCAABB%CC5.608.402.25%2.47%251.61248.332.10%2.07%2374.21288.91344.30282.400.94%0.99%3469.84368.62245.00450.45384.05283.170.82%0.94%5558.84450.41310.21594.85525.19412.740.90%0.62%0.83%7607.89497.14351.38679.82610.05492.660.87%0.71%0.50%0.97%0.87%0.70%649.98538.72389.70789.80719.27599.110.65%0.54%0.39%0.79%0.72%0.60%652.65541.60392.61884.25813.39693.020.44%0.36%0.26%0.59%0.54%0.46%0652.65541.60392.61902.24831.3411.950.33%0.27%0.20%0.45%0.42%0.36%12313228482009A3228482009A 202242022IPO(家)9711,09260700主板募资规模创业板募资规模科创板募资规模北交所募资规模发行家数(亿00006323142939672064772637838552518624528128617 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