贸易与经济发展

貿易與經濟發展TRADEANDECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTodaro,Chapters12-13Perkins,Chapters191TradeTheoryandDevelopmentExperienceTodaroCh.122緒論Introduction

本講討論發展中國家(LDCsorLDC-lessdevelopedcountries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標，LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。34雁行理論以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。5TheImportanceofInternationalTradeandFinance

國際貿易和金融的重要性ManyLDCsrelyheavilyonexports(usuallyprimaryproducts)ManyLDCsalsorelyheavilyonimports(typicallyofmachinery,capitalgoods,intermediateproducergoods,andconsumerproducts)6FiveBasicQuestionsaboutTradeandDevelopmentHowdoesinternationaltradeaffecteconomicgrowth?Howdoestradealterthedistributionofincome?Howcantradepromotedevelopment?CanLDCsdeterminehowmuchtheytrade?Isanoutward-lookingoraninward-lookingtradepolicybest?7貿易對發展的重要性LDCs出口趨勢和型態。出口的重要性需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性8TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatterns9Table12.11011Table12.21213141516FuelExportCountries1718投資與與儲蓄蓄關係係Y=C+I+X-M=GC+PC+GI+PI+X-MPS=Y-GR-PC私人儲儲蓄,GR=Govtrevenue政府收收入GS=GR-GC政府經經常帳帳餘額額I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FSFS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS)貿易赤赤字＝＝民間間超額額投資資＋政政府總總赤字字（政政府超超額投投資））192021TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnations2223Figure12.324TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnationsDemandelasticitiesandexportearningsinstability25TheTermsofTradeandthePrebisch-SingerThesisTotalexportearningsdependon:totalvolumeofexportssoldANDpricepaidforexportsPrebischandSingerarguethatexportpricesfallovertime,soLDCsloserevenueunlesstheycancontinuallyincreaseexportvolumesPrebischandSingerthinkLDCsneedtoavoidadependenceonprimaryexports26貿易條條件TermsofTrade(TOT)XPI/MPI出口價價格指指數/進口價價格指指數100/100103/100109/102120/109以上例例子，，TOT改善，，對出出口有有利XPI/MPI以上例例子，，TOT惡化，，對出出口不不利2728TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantageRelativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel2930TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantage比較利利益理理論Relativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel新古典典模型型Tradetheoryanddevelopment:thetraditionalarguments傳統看看法＊中國國經濟濟崛起起後對對國際際貿易易理論論的衝衝擊31SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobility3233SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobilityFixed,freelyavailabletechnologyandconsumersovereigntyInternalfactormobilityandperfectcompetitionGovernmentalnon-interferenceintrade34SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:BalancedtradeandinternationalpriceadjustmentsTradegainsaccruingtonationals35SomeConclusionsonTradeandEconomicDevelopmentTradecanleadtorapideconomicgrowthundersomecircumstancesTradeseemstoreinforceexistingincomeinequalitiesTradecanbenefitLDCsiftheycanextracttradeconcessionsfromdevelopedcountriesLDCsgenerallymusttradeRegionalcooperationmayhelpLDCs36ConceptsforReviewAbsoluteadvantageBalancedtradeBartertransactionsCapitalaccountCollectiveself-relianceCollusionCommoditytermsoftradeComparativeadvantageCurrentaccountEnclaveeconomiesExportdependenceExportearningsinstabilityFactorendowmenttradetheory37ConceptsforReview,cont’’dFactormobilityFactor-priceequalizationForeign-exchangeearningsFreetradeGainsfromtradeGrowthpolesIncomeelasticityofdemandIncometermsoftradeIncreasingreturnsIndustrialpolicyMerchandisetradebalanceMonopolisticmarketcontrol38ConceptsforReview,cont’’dNorth-southtrademodelsOligopolisticmarketcontrolPrebisch-SingerthesisPriceelasticityofdemandPrimaryproductsProductcycleProductdifferentiationQuotasRegionaltradingblocksReturnstoscaleRiskSpecialization39ConceptsforReview,cont’dSubsidiesSyntheticsubstitutesTariffsTradedeficitsUncertaintyVent-for-surplustheoryofinternationaltrade40TheTradePolicyDebate:ExportPromotion,ImportSubstitution,andEconomicIntegrationTodaroChapter1341TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionExportpromotion:lookingoutwardandseeingtradebarriersprimary-commodityexportexpansion4243TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionExportpromotion:lookingoutwardandseeingtradebarriersprimary-commodityexportexpansionexpandingmanufacturedgoodexportsImportsubstitution:lookinginwardbutstillpayingoutwardtariffs,infantindustries,andprotection4445TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionTheISindustrializationstrategyandresults4647NominalRateofProtectionThenominaltariffrate,t,isWherep’isthetariff-inclusivepricepisthefreetradeprice48EffectiveRateofProtectionTheeffectivetariffrate,g,isWherev’isthevalueaddedperunitofoutput,inclusiveofthetariffvisthevalueaddedperunitofoutputunderfreetrade4950TradeStrategiesforDevelopment:ExportPromotionversusImportSubstitutionTheISindustrializationstrategyandresultsForeign-exchangerates,exchangecontrols,andthedevaluationdecision5152SummaryandConclusions:TradeOptimistsandTradePessimistsTradepessimistargumentsTradeoptimistarguments53ReconcilingtheArguments:TheDataandConsensusNeitherthetradeoptimistsnorthetradepessimistsarealwaysrightTherearemanyfactorsthatdeterminewhethertradeisgoodorbadforacountry54South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountries5556South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountriesEconomicintegration:theoryandpracticeRegionaltradingblocksandtheglobalizationoftrade5758Table13.259South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInwardThegrowthoftradeamongdevelopingcountriesEconomicintegration:theoryandpracticeRegionaltradingblocksandtheglobalizationoftradeRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRound60South-SouthTradeandEconomicIntegration:LookingOutwardandInward,cont’dTheproblemofadjustmentassistanceDomesticeconomicpolicies61TradePoliciesofDevelopedCountries:theNeedforReformRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRound(seefigure13.3forquantitativeimpact)62Figure13.363TradePoliciesofDevelopedCountries:theNeedforReformRich-nationtariffandnontarifftradebarriersandthe1995UruguayRoundWTO—1995DohaRound—200164ConceptsforReviewAdjustmentassistanceAutarchyCommonmarketCustomsunionDepreciationDevaluationDualexchangerateDohaDevelopmentAgendaEconomicintegrationEconomicUnionEffectiverateofprotectionExchangecontrolExchangerateExportpromotionFlexibleexchangerate65ConceptsforReview(cont’’d)Free-marketexchangerateGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(GATT)GlobalizationImportsubstitutionInfantindustryInternationalcommodityagreementsInward-lookingdevelopmentpoliciesMulti-FiberArrangement(MFA)NewprotectionismNominalrateofprotectionNontarifftradebarriers66ConceptsforReview(cont’’d)OfficialexchangerateOutward-lookingdevelopmentpoliciesOvervaluedexchangerateParallelexchangerateQuotasRegionaltradingblocRentseekingSyntheticsubstitutesTariffsTradecreationTradediversionTradeliberalizationTradeoptimistsTradepessimists67ConceptsforReview(cont’’d)UruguayRoundValueaddedWage-pricespiralWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)689、静夜四无邻邻，荒居旧业业贫。。12月-2212月-22Saturday,December31,202210、雨中黄叶叶树，灯下下白头人。。。15:10:0015:10:0015:1012/31/20223:10:00PM11、以我我独沈沈久，，愧君君相见见频。。。12月月-2215:10:0015:10Dec-2231-Dec-2212、故人江江海别，，几度隔隔山川。。。15:10:0015:10:0015:10Saturday,December31,202213、乍乍见见翻翻疑疑梦梦，，相相悲悲各各问问年年。。。。12月月-2212月月-2215:10:0015:10:00December31,202214、他乡乡生白白发，，旧国国见青青山。。。31十十二二月20223:10:00下下午15:10:0012月月-2215、比不了得就就不比，得不不到的就不要要。。。十二月223:10下下午12月-2215:10December31,202216、行动出成成果，工作作出财富。。。2022/12/3115:10:0015:10:0131December202217、做做前前，，能能够够环环视视四四周周；；做做时时，，你你只只能能或或者者最最好好沿沿着着以以脚脚为为起起点点的的射射线线向向前前。。。。3:10:01下下午午3:10下下午午15:10:0112月月-229、没有有失败败，只只有暂暂时停停止成成功！！。12月月-2212月月-22Saturday,December31,202210、很多事情情努力了未未必有结果果，但是不不努力却什什么改变也也没有。。。15:10:0115:10:0115:1012/31/20223:10:01PM11、成成功功就就是是日日复复一一日日那那一一点点点点小小小小努努力力的的积积累累。。。。12月月-2215:10:0115:10Dec-2231-Dec-2212、世间成事，，不求其绝对对圆满，留一一份不足，可可得无限完美美。。15:10:0115:10:0115:10Saturday,December31,202213、不不知知香香积积寺寺，，数数里里入入云云峰峰。。。。12月月-2212月月-2215:10:0115:10:01December31,202214、意志坚强的的人能把世界界放在手中像像泥块一样任任意揉捏。31十二月月20223:10:01下午15:10:0112月-2215、楚塞三三湘接，，荆门九九派通。。。。十二月223:10下午午12月-2215:10December31,202216、少年十五五二十时，，步行夺得得胡马骑。。。2022/12/3115:10:0115:10:0131December202217、空空山山新新雨雨后后，，天天气气晚晚来来秋秋。。。。3:10:01下下午午3:10