CHMoneyInterestRatesandExchangerates国际经济学实用

会计学1CHMoneyInterestRatesandExchangerates国际经济学实用Slide14-2Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IntroductionMoneyDefined:ABriefReviewTheDemandforMoneybyIndividualsAggregateMoneyDemandTheEquilibriumInterestRate:TheInteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandChapterOrganization第1页/共42页Slide14-3Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRunMoney,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRunInflationandExchangeRateDynamicsSummaryChapterOrganization第2页/共42页Slide14-4Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IntroductionFactorsthataffectacountry’smoneysupplyordemandareamongthemostpowerfuldeterminantsofitscurrency’sexchangerateagainstforeigncurrencies.Thischaptercombinestheforeign-exchangemarketwiththemoneymarkettodeterminetheexchangerateintheshortrun.Itanalyzesthelong-termeffectsofmonetarychangesonoutputpricesandexpectedfutureexchangerates.第3页/共42页Slide14-5Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.MoneyDefined:ABriefReviewMoneyasaMediumofExchangeAgenerallyacceptedmeansofpaymentMoneyasaUnitofAccountAwidelyrecognizedmeasureofvalueMoneyasaStoreofValueAtransferofpurchasingpowerfromthepresentintothefuture第4页/共42页Slide14-6Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.WhatIsMoney?Assetswidelyusedandacceptedasameansofpayment.Moneyisveryliquid,butpayslittleornoreturn.Allotherassetsarelessliquidbutpayhigherreturn.MoneySupply(Ms)Ms=Currency+CheckableDepositsMoneyDefined:ABriefReview第5页/共42页Slide14-7Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.HowtheMoneySupplyIsDeterminedAneconomy’smoneysupplyiscontrolledbyitscentralbank.Thecentralbank:DirectlyregulatestheamountofcurrencyinexistenceIndirectlycontrolstheamountofcheckingdepositsissuedbyprivatebanks

MoneyDefined:ABriefReview第6页/共42页Slide14-8Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Threefactorsinfluencemoneydemand:ExpectedreturnRiskLiquidityExpectedReturnTheinterestratemeasurestheopportunitycostofholdingmoneyratherthaninterest-bearingbonds.Ariseintheinterestrateraisesthecostofholdingmoneyandcausesmoneydemandtofall.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第7页/共42页Slide14-9Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.RiskHoldingmoneyisrisky.Anunexpectedincreaseinthepricesofgoodsandservicescouldreducethevalueofmoneyintermsofthecommoditiesconsumed.Changesintheriskofholdingmoneyneednotcauseindividualstoreducetheirdemandformoney.Anychangeintheriskinessofmoneycausesanequalchangeintheriskinessofbonds.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第8页/共42页Slide14-10Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.LiquidityThemainbenefitofholdingmoneycomesfromitsliquidity.Householdsandfirmsholdmoneybecauseitistheeasiestwayoffinancingtheireverydaypurchases.Ariseintheaveragevalueoftransactionscarriedoutbyahouseholdorfirmcausesitsdemandformoneytorise.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第9页/共42页Slide14-11Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.AggregateMoneyDemandAggregatemoneydemandThetotaldemandformoneybyallhouseholdsandfirmsintheeconomy.Itisdeterminedbythreemainfactors:InterestrateItreducesthedemandformoney.PricelevelItraisesthedemandformoney.RealnationalincomeItraisesthedemandformoney.第10页/共42页Slide14-12Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Theaggregatedemandformoneycanbeexpressedby:

Md=P

x

L(R,Y)(14-1)where: P

isthepricelevel Y

is

realnationalincome L(R,Y)istheaggregaterealmoneydemandEquation(14-1)canalsobewrittenas:

Md/P=L(R,Y) (14-2)AggregateMoneyDemand第11页/共42页Slide14-13Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-1:AggregateRealMoneyDemandandtheInterestRateL(R,Y)Interestrate,RAggregaterealmoneydemandAggregateMoneyDemand第12页/共42页Slide14-14Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-2:EffectontheAggregateRealMoneyDemandScheduleof aRiseinRealIncomeL(R,Y2)IncreaseinrealincomeL(R,Y1)Interestrate,RAggregaterealmoneydemandAggregateMoneyDemand第13页/共42页Slide14-15Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.EquilibriumintheMoneyMarketTheconditionforequilibriuminthemoneymarketis: Ms=Md(14-3)Themoneymarketequilibriumconditioncanbeexpressedintermsofaggregaterealmoneydemandas: Ms/P=L(R,Y)(14-4)

TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第14页/共42页Slide14-16Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-3:DeterminationoftheEquilibriumInterestRateAggregaterealmoneydemand,L(R,Y)Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdingsRealmoneysupplyMS

P(=Q1)R2Q22R11R3Q33第15页/共42页Slide14-17Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.InterestRatesandtheMoneySupplyAnincrease(fall)inthemoneysupplylowers(raises)theinterestrate,giventhepricelevelandoutput.TheeffectofincreasingthemoneysupplyatagivenpricelevelisillustratedinFigure14-4.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第16页/共42页Slide14-18Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.M2

PR22M1

PRealmoneysupplyRealmoneysupplyincreaseTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-4:EffectofanIncreaseintheMoneySupplyontheInterest RateL(R,Y1)R11Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdings第17页/共42页Slide14-19Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.OutputandtheInterestRateAnincrease(fall)inrealoutputraises(lowers)theinterestrate,giventhepricelevelandthemoneysupply.Figure14-5showstheeffectontheinterestrateofariseinthelevelofoutput,giventhemoneysupplyandthepricelevel.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第18页/共42页Slide14-20Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Q21'TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-5:EffectontheInterestRateofaRiseinRealIncomeL(R,Y1)L(R,Y2)IncreaseinrealincomeRealmoneysupplyMS

P(=Q1)R22R11Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdings第19页/共42页Slide14-21Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRunShortrunanalysisThepricelevelandtherealoutputaregiven.LongrunanalysisThepricelevelisperfectlyflexibleandalwaysadjustedimmediatelytopreservefullemployment.第20页/共42页Slide14-22Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.LinkingMoney,theInterestRate,andtheExchangeRateTheU.S.moneymarketdeterminesthedollarinterestrate,whichinturnaffectstheexchangeratethatmaintainstheinterestparity.Figure14-6linkstheU.S.moneymarket(bottom)andtheforeignexchangemarket(top).TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRun第21页/共42页Slide14-23Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-6:SimultaneousEquilibriumintheU.S.MoneyMarket andtheForeign-ExchangeMarketReturnondollardepositsExpectedreturnoneurodepositsL(R$,YUS)U.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0(increasing)ForeignexchangemarketMoneymarketE1$/€1'R1$1U.S.realmoneysupplyMSUSPUS第22页/共42页Slide14-24Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-7:Money-Market/ExchangeRateLinkagesEuropeanmoneymarketUnitedStatesmoneymarketEuropeEuropeanSystemofCentralBanksUnitedStatesFederalReserveSystem(UnitedStatesmoneysupply)MSUSMSE(Europeanmoneysupply)R$(Dollarinterestrate)R€(Eurointerestrate)ForeignexchangemarketE$/€(Dollar/Euroexchangerate)第23页/共42页Slide14-25Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.U.S.MoneySupplyandtheDollar/EuroExchangeRateWhathappenswhentheFederalReservechangestheU.S.moneysupply?Anincrease(decrease)inacountry’smoneysupplycausesitscurrencytodepreciate(appreciate)intheforeignexchangemarket.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第24页/共42页Slide14-26Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IncreaseinU.S.realmoneysupplyExpectedreturnoneurodepositsTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-8:EffectontheDollar/EuroExchangeRateandDollar InterestRateofanIncreaseintheU.S.MoneySupplyE2$/€2'U.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0ReturnondollardepositsL(R$,YUS)E1$/€1'R1$1M1USPUSR2$2M2USPUS第25页/共42页Slide14-27Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Europe’sMoneySupplyandtheDollar/EuroExchangeRateAnincreaseinEurope’smoneysupplycausesadepreciationoftheeuro(i.e.,appreciationofthedollar).AreductioninEurope’smoneysupplycausesanappreciationoftheeuro(i.e.,adepreciationofthedollar).ThechangeintheEuropeanmoneysupplydoesnotdisturbtheU.S.moneymarketequilibrium.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第26页/共42页Slide14-28Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-9:EffectofanIncreaseintheEuropeanMoneySupply ontheDollar/EuroExchangeRateIncreaseinEuropeanmoneysupplyU.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0ExpectedeuroreturnL(R$,YUS)U.S.realmoneysupplyMSUSPUSR1$1E1$/€1'DollarreturnTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandE2$/€2'第27页/共42页Slide14-29Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRunLong-runequilibriumPricesareperfectlyflexibleandalwaysadjustedimmediatelytopreservefullemployment.MoneyandMoneyPricesThemoneymarketequilibrium(Equation14-4)canberearrangedtogivethelong-runequilibriumpricelevel:

P=Ms/L(R,Y)(14-5)Anincreaseinacountry’smoneysupplycausesaproportionalincreaseinitspricelevel.

第28页/共42页Slide14-30Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheLong-RunEffectsofMoneySupplyChangesAchangeinthesupplyofmoneyhasnoeffectonthelong-runvaluesoftheinterestrateorrealoutput.Apermanentincreaseinthemoneysupplycausesaproportionalincreaseinthepricelevel’slong-runvalue.Thispredictionisbasedonthemoneymarketequilibriumcondition:Ms/P=LorP=Ms/L.ThisconditionimpliesthatP/P=Ms/Ms-L/L.Theinflationrateequalsthemonetarygrowthratelessthegrowthrateformoneydemand.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第29页/共42页Slide14-31Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.EmpiricalEvidenceonMoneySuppliesandPriceLevelsInacross-sectionofcountries,long-termchangesinmoneysuppliesandpricelevelsshowaclearpositivecorrelation.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第30页/共42页Slide14-32Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-10:MonetaryGrowthandPrice-LevelChangeintheSeven MainIndustrialCountries,1973-1997Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第31页/共42页Slide14-33Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.MoneyandtheExchangeRateintheLongRunApermanentincrease(decrease)inacountry’smoneysupplycausesaproportionallong-rundepreciation(appreciation)ofitscurrencyagainstforeigncurrencies.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第32页/共42页Slide14-34Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamicsInflationAsituationwhereaneconomy’spricelevelrises.DeflationAsituationwhereaneconomy’spricelevelfalls.Short-RunPriceRigidityversusLong-RunPriceFlexibilityTheshort-run“stickiness”ofpricelevelsisillustratedinFigure14-11.第33页/共42页Slide14-35Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-11:Month-to-MonthVariabilityoftheDollar/DMExchange RateandoftheU.S./GermanPrice-LevelRatio,1974-2001Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第34页/共42页Slide14-36Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Achangeinthemoneysupplycreatesdemandandcostpressuresthatleadtofutureincreasesinthepricelevelfromthreemainsources:ExcessdemandforoutputandlaborInflationaryexpectationsRawmaterialspricesInflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第35页/共42页Slide14-37Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.PermanentMoneySupplyChangesandtheExchangeRateHowdoesthedollar/euroexchangerateadjusttoapermanentincreaseintheU.S.moneysupply?Figure14-12showsboththeshort-runandlong-runeffectsoftheincreaseintheU.S.moneysupply.Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第36页/共42页Slide14-38Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-12:EffectsofanIncreaseintheU.S.MoneySupplyDollarreturnDollarreturnM1USP1USM2USP1USU.S.realmoneysupplyM2USP2USM2USP1USDollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€Ratesofreturn(indollarterms)U.S.realmoneyholdings0(a)Short-runeffects0(b)Adjustmenttolong-runequilibriumDollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€U.S.realmoneyholdingsE2$/€2'E3$/€4'R1$4R2$2R1$1Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics3'2'E2$/€ExpectedeuroreturnExpectedeuroreturnL(R$,YUS)R2$2L(R$,YUS)E1$/€1'第37页/共42页Slide14-39Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-13:TimePathsofU.S.EconomicVariablesAfteraPermanent IncreaseintheU.S