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Peoplehavespeculatedforcenturiesaboutafuturewithoutwork,andtodayisnodifferent,withacademics,writers,andactivistsonceagainwarningthattechnologyisreplacinghumanworkers.Someimaginethattheingwork-freeworldwillbedefinedbyinequality:Afewwealthypeoplewillownallthecapital,andthemasseswillstruggleinanimpoverishedwasteland.Adifferent,lessparanoid,andnotmutuallyexclusivepredictionholdsthatthefuturewillbeawastelandofadifferentsort,onecharacterizedbypurposelessness:Withoutjobstogivetheirlivesmeaning,peoplewillsimplybeelazyanddepressed.Indeed,today’sunemployeddon’tseemtobehavingagreattime.OneGalluppollfoundthat20percentofAmericanswhohavebeenunemployedforatleastayearreporthavingdepression,doubletherateforworkingAmericans.Also,someresearchsuggeststhattheexplanationforrisingratesofmortality,mental-healthproblems,andaddictionamongpoorly-educated,middle-agedpeopleisashortageofwell-paidjobs.Anotherstudyshowsthatpeopleareoftenhappieratworkthanintheirfreetime.Perhapsthisiswhymanyworryabouttheagonizingdullnessofajoblessfuture.Butitdoesn’tnecessarilyfollowfromfindingsthesethataworldwithoutworkwouldbefilledwithmalaise.Suchvisionsarebasedonthedownsidesofbeingunemployedinasocietybuiltontheconceptofemployment.Intheabsenceofwork,asocietydesignedwithotherendsinmindcouldyieldstrikinglydifferentcircumstancesforthefutureoflaborandleisure.Today,thevirtueofworkmaybeabitoverblown.“Manyjobsareboring,degrading,unhealthy,andasquanderingofhumanpotential,”saysJohnDanaher,alecturerattheNationalUniversityofIrelandinGalwaywhohaswrittenaboutaworldwithoutwork.“Globalsurveysfindthatthevastmajorityofpeopleareunhappyatwork.”Thesedays,becauseleisuretimeisrelativelyscarceformostworkers,peopleusetheirfreetimetocounterbalancetheintellectualandemotionaldemandsoftheirjobs.“WhenIehomefromahardday’swork,Ioftenfeeltired,”Danahersays,adding,“InaworldinwhichIdon’thavetowork,Imightfeelratherdifferent”—perhapsdifferentenoughtothrowhimselfintoahobbyorapassionprojectwiththeintensityusuallyreservedforprofessionalmatters.Havingajobcanprovideameasureoffinancialstability,butinadditiontostressingoverhowtocoverlife’snecessities,today’sjoblessaremadetofeellikesocialoutcasts.“Peoplewhoavoidworkareviewedasparasitesandleeches,”Danahersays.Perhapsasaresultofthisculturalattitude,formostpeople,self-esteemandidentityaretiedupintricatelywiththeirjob,orlackofjob.Plus,inmanymodern-daysocieties,unemploymentcanalsobedownrightboring.Americantownsandcitiesaren’treallybuiltforlotsoffreetime:Publicspacestendtobesmallislandsinseasofprivateproperty,andtherearen’tmanyplacesentryfeeswhereadultscanmeetnewpeopleoreupwithwaystoentertainoneanother.Therootsofthisboredommayrunevendeeper.PeterGray,aprofessorofpsychologyatBostonCollegewhostudiestheconceptofplay,thinksthatifworkdisappearedtomorrow,peoplemightbeatalossforthingstodo,growingboredanddepressedbecausetheyhaveforgottenhowtoplay.“Weteachchildrenadistinctionbetweenplayandwork,”Grayexplains.“Workissomethingthatyoudon’twanttodobutyouhavetodo.”Hesaysthistraining,whichstartsinschool,eventually“drillstheplay”outofmanychildren,whogrowuptobeadultswhoareaimlesswhenpresentedwithfreetime.“Sometimespeopleretirefromtheirwork,andtheydon’tknowwhattodo,”Graysays.“They’velosttheabilitytocreatetheirownactivities.”It’saproblemthatneverseemstoplagueyoungchildren.“Therearenothree-year-oldsthataregoingtobelazyanddepressedbecausetheydon’thaveastructuredactivity,”heButneeditbethisway?Work-freesocietiesaremorethanjustathoughtexperiment—they’veexistedthroughouthumanhistory.Considerhunter-gatherers,whohavenobosses,paychecks,oreight-hourworkdays.Tenthousandyearsago,allhumanswerehunter-gatherers,andsomestillare.DanielEverett,ananthropologistatBentleyUniversity,inMassachusetts,studiedagroupofhunter-gathersintheAmazoncalledthePirah?foryears.AordingtoEverett,whilesomemightconsiderhuntingandgatheringwork,hunter-gatherersdon’t.“Theythinkofitasfun,”hesays.“Theydon’thaveaconceptofworkthewaywedo.”“It’saprettylifemostofthetime,”Everettsays.HedescribedatypicaldayforthePirah?:Amanmightgetup,spendafewhourscanoeingandfishing,haveabarbecue,goforaswim,bringfishbacktohisfamily,andplayuntiltheevening.Suchsubsistencelivingissurelynotwithoutitsownsetofworries,buttheanthropologistMarshallSahlinsarguedina1968essaythathunter-gathersbelongedto“theoriginalaffluentsociety,”seeingastheyonly“worked”afewhoursaday;EverettestimatesthatPirah?adultsonaverageworkabout20hoursaweek(nottomentionwithoutbossespeeringovertheirshoulders).Meanwhile,aordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics,theaverageemployedAmericanwithchildrenworksaboutninehoursaday.Doesthisleisurelylifeleadtothedepressionandpurposelessnessseenamongsomanyoftoday’sunemployed?“I’veneverseenremotelylikedepressionthere,exceptpeoplewhoarephysicallyill,”Everettsays.“Theyhaveablast.Theyplayallthetime.”Whilemanymayconsiderworkastapleofhumanlife,workasitexiststodayisarelativelynewinventioninthecourseofthousandsofyearsofhumanculture.“Wethinkit’sbadtojustsitaroundwithnothingtodo,”saysEverett.“ForthePirah?,it’squiteadesirablestate.”Graylikenstheseaspectsofthehunter-gathererlifestyletothecarefreeadventuresofmanychildrenindevelopedcountries,whoatsomepointinlifeareexpectedtoputawaychildishthings.Butthathasn’talwaysbeenthecase.AordingtoGaryCross’s1990bookASocialHistoryofLeisureSince1600,freetimeintheU.S.lookedquitedifferentbeforethe18thand19thcenturies.Farmers—whichwasafairwaytodescribeahugenumberofAmericansatthattime—mixedworkandplayintheirdailylives.Therewerenomanagersoroverseers,sotheywouldswitchfluidlybetweenworking,takingbreaks,joininginneighborhoodgames,playingpranks,andspendingtimewithfamilyandfriends.Nottomentionfestivalsandothergatherings:France,forinstance,had84holidaysayearin1700,andweatherkeptthemfromfarminganother80orsodaysayear.Thisallchanged,writesCross,duringtheIndustrialRevolution,whichreplacedfarmswithfactoriesandfarmerswithemployees.Factoryownerscreatedamorerigidlyscheduledenvironmentthatclearlydividedworkfromplay.Meanwhile,clocks—whichwerebeingwidespreadatthattime—begantogivelifeaquickerpace,andreligiousleaders,whotraditionallyendorsedmostfestivities,startedassociatingleisurewithsinandtriedtoreplacerowdyfestivalswithsermons.Asworkersstartedmovingintocities,familiesnolongerspenttheirdaystogetheronthefarm.Instead,menworkedinfactories,womenstayedhomeorworkedinfactories,andchildrenwenttoschool,stayedhome,orworkedinfactoriestoo.Duringtheworkday,familiesbecamephysicallyseparated,whichaffectedthewaypeopleentertainedthemselves:Adultsstoppedplaying“childish”gamesandsports,andthestreetsweremostlywipedcleanoffun,asmiddle-andupper-classfamiliesfoundworking-classactivitieslikecockfightinganddicegamesdistasteful.Manysuchdiversionsweresoonoutlawed.Withworkers’oldoutletsforplayhavingdisappearedinahazeoffactorysmoke,manyofthemturnedtonew,moreurbanones.Barsbecamearefugewheretiredworkersdrankandwatchedliveshowswithsinginganddancing.IffreetimemeansbeerandTVtoalotofAmericans,thismightbewhy.Attimes,developedsocietieshave,foraprivilegedfew,producedlifestylesthatwerenearlyasplay-filledashunter-gatherers’.history,aristocratswhoearnedtheirinesimplybyowninglandspentonlyatinyportionoftheirtimemindingfinancialexigencies.AordingtoRandolphTrumbach,aprofessorofhistoryatBaruchCollege,18th-centuryEnglisharistocratsspenttheirdaysvisitingfriends,eatingelaboratemeals,hostingsalons,hunting,writingletters,fishing,andgoingtochurch.Theyalsospentagooddealoftimeparticipatinginpolitics,withoutpay.Theirchildrenwouldlearntodance,playinstruments,speakforeignlanguages,andreadLatin.Russiannoblesfrequentlybecameintellectuals,writers,andartists.“Asa17th-centuryaristocratsaid,‘Wesitdowntoeatandriseuptoplay,forwhatisagentlemanbuthispleasure?’”Trumbachsays.It’sunlikelythataworldwithoutworkwouldbeabundantenoughtoprovideeveryonewithsuchlavishlifestyles.ButGrayinsiststhatinjectinganyamountofadditionalplayintopeople’sliveswouldbeagoodthing,because,contrarytothat17th-centuryaristocrat,playisaboutmorethanpleasure.Throughplay,Graysays,children(aswellasadults)learnhowtostrategize,createnewmentalconnections,expresstheircreativity,cooperate,overenarcissism,andgetalongwithotherpeople.“Malemammalstypicallyhavedifficultylivingincloseproximitytoeachother,”hesays,andplay’spropertiesmayexplainwhyitcametobesocentraltohunter-gatherersocieties.Whilemostoftoday’sadultsmayhaveforgottenhowtoplay,Graydoesn’tbelieveit’sanunrecoverableskill:It’snotunmon,hesays,forgrandparentstore-learntheconceptofplayafterspendingtimewiththeiryounggrandchildren.Whenpeopleponderthenatureofaworldwithoutwork,theyoftentransposepresent-dayassumptionsaboutlaborandleisureontoafuturewheretheymightnolongerapply;ifautomationdoesenduprenderingagoodportionofhumanlaborunnecessary,suchasocietymightexistonpletelydifferenttermsthansocietiesdotoday.Sowhatmightawork-freeU.S.looklike?Grayhassomeideas.School,foronething,wouldbeverydifferent.“Ithinkoursystemofschoolingwouldpletelyfallbythewayside,”saysGray.“Theprimarypurposeoftheeducationalsystemistoteachpeopletowork.Ithinkanybodywouldwanttoputourkidsthroughwhatweputourkidsthroughnow.”Instead,Graysuggeststhatteacherscouldbuildlessonsaroundwhatstudentsaremostcuriousabout.Or,perhaps,formalschoolingwoulddisappearaltogether.Trumbach,meanwhile,wondersifschoolingwouldbeemoreaboutteachingchildrentobeleaders,ratherthanworkers,throughsubjectslikephilosophyandrhetoric.Healsothinksthatpeoplemightparticipateinpoliticalandpubliclifemore,likearistocratsofyore.“Ifgreaternumbersofpeoplewereusingtheirleisuretorunthecountry,thatwouldgivepeopleasenseofpurpose,”saysTrumbach.Sociallifemightlookalotdifferenttoo.SincetheIndustrialRevolution,mothers,fathers,andchildrenhavespentmostoftheirwakinghoursapart.Inawork-freeworld,peopleofdifferentagesmightetogetheragain.“Wewouldbeemuchlessisolatedfromeachother,”Grayimagines,perhapsalittleoptimistically.“Whenamomishavingababy,everybodyintheneighborhoodwouldwanttohelpthatmom.”Researchershavefoundthathavingcloserelationshipsisthenumber-onepredictorofhappiness,andthesocialconnectionsthatawork-freeworldmightenablecouldwelldisplacetheaimlessnessthatsomanyfuturistspredict.Ingeneral,withoutwork,Graythinkspeoplewouldbemorelikelytopursuetheirpassions,getinvolvedinthearts,andvisitfriends.Perhapsleisurewouldceasetobeaboutunwindingafteraperiodofhardwork,andwouldinsteadbeeamorecolorful,variedthing.“Wewouldn’thavetobeasself-orientedaswethinkwehavetobenow,”hesays.“Ibelievewewouldbeemorehuman.”ThedeclineinAmericanmanufacturingisamonrefrain,particularlyfromDonaldTrump.“Wedon’tanythinganymore,”hetoldFoxNewslastOctober,whiledefendinghisownmade-in-Mexicoclothingline.OnTuesday,inrustbeltPennsylvania,hedoubleddown,sayingthathehad"visitedcitiesandtownsacrossthiscountrywhereathirdorevenhalfofmanufacturingjobshavebeenwipedoutinthelast20years."ThePacifictradedeal,headded,"wouldbethedeathblowforAmericanmanufacturing."Withoutquestion,manufacturinghastakenasignificanthitduringrecentdecades,andfurthertradedealsraisequestionsaboutwhethernewshockscouldhitmanufacturing.Butthereisalsoadifferentwaytolookatthedata.Inreality,UnitedStatesmanufacturingoutputisatanall-timehigh,worth$2.2trillioninxx,upfrom$1.7trillioninxx.Andwhiletotalemploymenthasfallenbynearlyathirdsince1970,thejobsthatremainareincreasinglyskilled.Acrossthecountry,factoryownersarenowgrapplingwithanewchallenge:Insteadofhavingtoomanyworkers,astheydidduringtheGreatRecession,theymayendupwithtoofew.Despitetradepetitionandoutsourcing,Americanmanufacturingstillneedstoreplacetensofthousandsofretiringboomerseveryyear.Millennialsmaynotbethatinterestedintakingtheirplace.Otherindustriesarerecruitingthemwithsimilarorbetterpay.Andthoseindustriesdon’thavethestigmaof40yearsofrecurringlayoffsanddownsizing.“We’veneverhadsomuchattentionfrommanufacturers.They’recallingandsaying:‘Canwemeetyourstudents?’They’reasking,‘Whyaren’ttheylookingatmyjobpostings?'”saysJulieParks,executivedirectorofworkforcetrainingatGrandRapidsCommunityCollegeinwesternMichigan.Theregionisamicrocosmofthenationalchallenge.Unemploymenthereislow(around3percent,paredwithastatewideaverageof5percent).Therearen’tmanyextraworkerswaitingforajob.Andtheneedishigh:1in5peopleworkinmanufacturing,churningoutautoparts,machinery,plastics,officefurniture,andmedicaldevices.Otherindustries,includingagribusinessandlifesciences,arevyingforthesameworkers.Forfactoryowners,italladdsuptostiffpetitionforworkers–andupwardpressureonwages.“They’rehardertofindandtheyhavejoboffers,”saysJayDunwell,presidentofWolverineCoilSpring,afamily-ownedfirm.“Theymaybeing[intotheworkforce],butthey’vebeenpluckedbyotherindustriesthatarealsodoingaswellasmanufacturing,”Mr.Dunwellhasbegunbringinghighschooljuniorstothefactorysotheycangetexposedtoitsculture.Heisalsopartofapublic-privateinitiativetopromotemanufacturingtostudentsthatincludesjobfairsandsendingamobiledemonstrationvehicletoruralschools.Oneoftheirmessagesisthatfactoriesarenolongerdark,dirty,anddangerous;puter-runsystemsarethenormandrecruitscanreceiveapprenticeshipsthatincludepaid-forcollegeclasses.AtRoManManufacturing,amakerofelectricaltransformersandweldingequipmentthathisfathercofoundedin1980,RobertRothkeepsacloseeyeontheageofhisnearly200workers.Fiveareretiringthisyear.Mr.Rothhasthreemunity-collegestudentsenrolledinawork-placementprogram,withastartingwageof$13anhourthatrisesto$17aftertwoyears.Ataworktableinsidethetransformerplant,youngJasonStenquistlooksflusteredbythecoppercoilshe’stryingtoassembleandthearrivaloftwovisitors.It’shisfirstweekonthejob;thisishisfirstencounterwithRoth,hisboss.Askedabouthischoiceofcareer,hesaysathighschoolheconsideredmedicalschoolbeforeswitchingtoelectricalengineering.“Iloveworkingwithtools.Ilovecreating,”hesays.Buttowinovertheseyoungworkers,manufacturershavetoclearanothermajorhurdle:parents,wholivedthroughtheworstUSeconomicdownturnsincetheGreatDepression,tellingthemtoavoidthefactory.Millennials“remembertheirfatherandmotherbothwerelaidoff.Theyblameitonthemanufacturingrecession,”saysBirgitKlohs,chiefexecutiveofTheRightPlace,abusinessdevelopmentagencyforwesternMichigan.Theseconcernsaren’tmisplaced:Employmentinmanufacturinghasfallenfrom17millionin1970to12millioninxx.Thesteepestdeclinescameafterxx,whenChinagainedentrytotheWorldTradeOrganizationandrampedupexportsofconsumergoodstotheUSandotherrichcountries.Inareasexposedtoforeigntrade,everyadditional$1,000ofimportsperworkermeanta$550annualdropinhouseholdineperworking-ageadult,aordingtoaxxstudyintheAmericanEconomicReview.Andunemployment,SocialSecurity,andothergovernmentbenefitswentup$60perperson.Th
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