化工-行业周报：8月磷肥出口向好BDO-NMP产业链、氨基酸价格普涨双酚A、吡唑醚菌酯、邻-对硝基氯化苯、橡胶助剂价格走高

证券研究报告工证券研究报告工7.483.76工昆股份3.92技0.701.13金禾实业3.322.575.932.542.902.99斯特3.843.15相关报告《【兴证化工】基础化工行业周置不可抗力或推动其相关产品价辛醇、聚氨酯产品等价格上涨(20220913-20220919)》投资要点磷肥出口细则，其中磷酸二铵出口51.85万吨，环比七美元/吨；重过磷酸钙出口均价660美元/吨，均高于当前国内市场价关注欧洲能源短缺或带来国内化工品涨价机遇。俄气于9月2日表影响众多下游的化工品生产，而随着化工品传统旺季到来，叠加“稳增长”、“保交房”的预不可抗力较多(共60万吨，占全球约18%)，印度、日、韩等装置占全球约7%)，合计区的维生素企业生产可能受到上述欧洲天然气短缺的影响。目前维生春播时节旺季，尿素停产导致的供给紧张问题将愈加凸显。建议关的前体γ-丁内酯(GBL)生产装置遭遇不可抗力，并将影响KollisolvP中国化工品价格指数(CCPI)：本周CCPI较上周下跌0.5%，较上本周涨幅较大的产品：邻硝基氯化苯，+67%；双酚A(华东)，hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03勋iumenglanxyzqcomcnS风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风险，环请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-双碳”目标背景下，身处规范化重点园区、持续稳定的资本开支等优势的领先企业将持续受益，强者恒强格局持续强化。特别是站在当前时点，化企龙头在基本面缓慢恢复的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有工产业格局重塑关键力量，万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等。化产业链、规模化与技术领先实现的成本优势、持续稳定的资本开支等工产业格局重塑的关键力量(万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等)。一速产品价格与价差的修复。建议关注桐昆股份、新凤鸣。农作物的种植面积将提升，农化产品将受益海外需求增长。我们认为，当前海外虽受到通胀影响，但是农化产品具备资源+刚需特性，2022年全球农化景气周期有望持续。从农化产业链看，磷肥原材料磷矿石价格尚处高位，磷矿-磷肥一体化企业受益，建议关注磷矿资源优势企业云天化、川恒股份、川发龙蟒、兴发集团。农药方面，安环收紧下农药行业集中度逐渐提高，头部企业新一轮产能投放在即，我们建议关注农药行业内具备领先工程化技术、原研药研发及推广实力的原药企：扬农化工、利尔化学、江山股份；制剂：润丰股份；农药中间体：联化科技。着全球经济刺激退潮，原料需求边际回落，其价格有望持续降低。海运端，2022年以来，海运供需错配缓解，全球海运费出现明显回落，未利水平有望迎来持续改善，国内头部企业产能扩张迅速，抢占全球市场份额，有望迎来行业修复与自身成长的共振，投资布局价值凸显。重点请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-段执行，沸石、蜂窝陶瓷等相关产品有望持续放量。关注动力电池电解液龙头天赐材料、新宙邦，正极材料龙头当升科技，光伏胶膜全球龙头化工新材料原创技术平台昊华科技，国内领先的半导体光刻胶龙头彤程新材，贯通芯片制造、封装的电子材料平台型公司雅克科技，催化材料领先企业国瓷材料、万润股份，风电叶片固化剂细分领域龙头阿科力、濮阳惠成。BDOPBAT开工较⚫苏氨酸、赖氨酸、色氨酸等氨基酸价格普涨。根据百川资讯，供应方面，氨基酸厂家正常生产。需求方面，下游猪肉价格上涨，终端养殖需酸采购量增加，需求好转。本周固体蛋氨酸(山东)和液体蛋氨酸(山东)国产)价格上涨2.0%至10.05元/千克；赖氨酸(98.5%,国产)价格上涨1.5%⚫需求较好，吡唑醚菌酯价格上涨。根据中农立华资讯，供应方面，吡中顺利，国内的吡唑醚菌酯的市场库存处于低位，供给紧张加剧。本周吡邻/对硝基氯化苯价格上涨。供给方面，本周邻/对硝基氯化苯生产企业间体需求提升，整体上看需求较好。本周对硝基氯化苯价格上涨8.2%据百川和隆众资讯，供应方面，本周双酚A国内装置产能利用率67.55%，较上周上涨2.46pcts，上海中石化三井装置停车检修，沧州大较为紧张。需求方面，下游产品环氧树脂及PC价格上调，行业开工稳请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-A⚫橡胶助剂市场强势走高。较低，开工稳定，促进剂需求增加。成本方面，原料苯胺继续上涨，环5800元/吨；促进剂CZ(华北)价格上涨5.9%至23700元/吨；促进剂NS(华北)价格上涨6.4%至24700元/吨。，主流企业多正常生产。需求方面，下游备货积极性提高，近期出口订单投资策略⚫海外政策收紧致需求边际走弱，国内新产能投产在即，周期景气或回/货币政策通道，美国耐用品消费已出现拐点；短期内国内政策托底经济“稳增长”，在“房住不炒”大背景下，地产相关化工品修复或相对加息后海外需求的边际下滑。综合来看，化工品需求压力较大，化纤等非耐用品相关化工品需求或好于耐用品相关化工品；供给方面，历经近我们认为2022年下半年化工品普遍性的景气或难再现，投资主线应聚焦于盈利确定性较高的品种。综上，把握2022年下半年化工行业投资内在市场化定价机制，叠加成品油组分价值链支撑，高油价并不影响炼油利润；当前行业处底部区间，后续存修复预期。长丝方面，行业集中度提升带动龙头单吨盈利中枢上移，前期需求遭受不可抗力致行业短期涤纶长丝；请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-⚫成本回落带来盈利修复确定性，产业趋势酝酿行业发展机遇：新材料C能源产业配套完备，新材料不断革新助力下游制造降本增效；“双碳”利修复。长远看，国内龙头凭高性价比优势不断抢占全球市场份额，未⚫通胀背景下，需求刚需与供给减少带来行业景气可持续的确定性：农科技、赛轮轮胎、国瓷材料、华峰化学、中国巨石、联化科技、天赐材卫星化学。的风险。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6- 录...............-10- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- 3、涤纶库存(天) -32-4、锦纶库存(天) -32-5、粘胶库存(天) -32- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9- 行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10-表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差大类产品单单位更新日期本周上周周涨幅上月同期月涨幅上季度同期季度涨幅年初年内涨幅指数中国化工品价格指数CCPI---2022/09/2351725199-0.5%49524.4%5680-8.9%5230人民币对美元汇率(中间价)2022/09/236.99206.93050.9%6.84866.68634.6%6.37429.7%人民币对欧元汇率(中间价)---2022/09/236.91126.9421-0.4%6.83337.00677.2002-4.0%美元指数2022/09/23113.03109.66108.863.8%105.127.5%95.74S&P500--美元/盎司2022/09/233693.233873.33-4.6%4057.66-9.0%3825.33-3.5%4677.03-21.0%黄金现货价2022/09/231643.551664.651751.251797.45-8.6%1792.60-8.3%CRB商品价格指数---2022/09/23568.05569.10-0.2%589.66-3.7%596.68-4.8%581.83-2.4%货代运价指数CFFI:中国-欧洲2022/09/23520052000.0%5550-6.3%5511-5.6%3289货代运价指数CFFI:中国-北美--2022/09/2352375255-0.3%49416.0%358346.2%342452.9%WTI期货(主连合约)美元/桶2022/09/2378.7485.11-7.5%93.06108.43-27.4%78.90-0.2%Brent期货(主连合约)美美元/桶美元/桶2022/09/2386.1591.35-5.7%100.99111.63-22.8%81.755.4%WTI期货(次月合约)2022/09/2381.2084.76-4.2%92.39105.39-23.0%78.443.5%Brent期货(次月合约)美美元/桶美元/桶2022/09/2387.790.05-2.6%99.01107.881.068.2%WTI期货(第12月合约)2022/09/2375.2476.8983.41-9.8%87.8572.044.4%Brent期货(第12月合约)美美元/桶2022/09/2383.1085.42-2.7%93.4399.0578.376.0%WTI现货美元/桶2022/09/2383.9485.1193.06-9.8%108.43-22.6%78.96.4%Brent现货美美元/桶2022/09/2389.3891.59-2.4%100.54118.39-24.5%81.92原油Dubai现货美元/桶2022/09/2390.5990.6899.48-8.9%114.99-21.2%80.7212.2%Cinta现货美美元/桶口2022/09/2386.5587.09-0.6%94.99-8.9%112.3-22.9%79.918.3%美国原油钻井数2022/09/236025990.5%605-0.5%5951.2%48125.2%美国商业原油库存千千桶美元/桶2022/09/234307744296330.3%4216722.2%4155663.7%417851Brent-WTI期货主连合约价差2022/09/237.416.2418.8%7.93-6.6%3.2131.6%2.85160.0%WTI主连合约-次月合约美美元/桶美元/桶2022/09/23-2.460.35-802.9%0.67-467.2%3.04180.9%0.46-634.8%Brent主连合约-次月合约2022/09/231.30-219.2%1.98178.3%3.83140.5%0.69-324.6%WTI主连合约-第12月合约美美元/桶美元/桶2022/09/233.58.22-57.4%9.65-63.7%20.58-83.0%6.86-49.0%Brent主连合约-第12月合约2022/09/233.055.93-48.6%7.56-59.7%12.58-75.8%3.38-9.7%三地原油简单10天平移均价美美元/桶2022/09/2389.3590.4396.76-7.7%114.38-21.9%77.1215.9%中国92#汽油(镇海炼化)元/吨2022/09/231000110309-3.0%10107111628618中国0#柴油(镇海炼化)元元/吨2022/09/2383808660-3.2%84759435712517.6%炼油美国87#汽油美分/加仑2022/09/232612562.3%278-5.9%384-31.8%22914.0%美国柴油(纽约)欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)美美分/加仑美元/吨2022/09/233433187.9%40140324937.5%2022/09/2310139566.0%1196121771242.4%亚洲柴油(新加坡)美美元/桶2022/09/2320154.5%51-20.7%53-21.8%9131.4%92#汽油新加坡FOB美元/桶2022/09/2392884.8%0837-33.0%93-0.8%含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美美元/桶2022/09/2323138.9%4958-22.0%9431.6%行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明航空煤油新加坡FOB美元/桶2022/09/2318106.9%4752-22.8%9128.6%美分/加仑美分/加仑美元/桶新美元/桶美元/吨日本石脑美元/吨液化气(华东)元/吨丙丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)美美元/吨丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)美元/吨正正丁烷(山东)元/吨元/吨基础油(150SN,东北)元/吨120#溶剂油(华东120#溶剂油(华东)元元/吨混调高硫180CST(华东)元/吨558#半炼石蜡(华南)元元/吨重交沥青(华南)元/吨改性沥青(华南)元元/吨美元/吨国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价差国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价差美元/美元/吨美元/吨国内主营成品油价-原油价差国际汽油市场价-原油价差美元/美元/吨美元/吨国际柴油市场价-原油价差国际成品油市场价-WTI原油价差美元/美元/吨美元/吨国际成品油市场价-Brent原油价差新加坡FOB汽油价-Brent原油价差美元/美元/吨美元/吨新加坡FOB柴油价-Brent原油价差新加坡FOB航空煤油价-Brent原油价差美元/美元/吨美元/桶美湾WTI321价差美湾Brent321价差美美元/桶美元/桶亚洲Minas321价差中中国沥青开工率%美美国炼厂开工率%2022/09/2368.7768.180.9%71.11-3.3%86.19-20.2%79.352022/09/236816750.9%686-0.7%830744-8.4%22022/09/232022/09/2395956050026150-7.3%116080216350-21.9%116350-0.5%-4.7%-4.7%22022/09/232022/09/236464561569698668-7.6%710710700-9.2%780780780757757727-7.9%-21.2%2022/09/2358105943-2.2%57281.4%6069-4.3%5839-0.5%2022/09/23890089000.0%84505.3%88500.6%721023.4%2022/09/2382008300780076507.2%64002022/09/2363006430-2.0%62500.8%6420502025.5%22022/09/232022/09/238408400494099850494099850492599850500586086003280-2.3%0.0%0.3%50.6%22022/09/232022/09/2359855985269.7359855985276.220.0%59705970190.620.3%66075266.4844400209.0636.0%-2.3%41.5%1.2%29.0%22022/09/232022/09/23169.73169.73135.85171.94171.94139.2187.187.1894.5894.7%148.59148.59134.0314.2%116.28116.28103.8746.0%-2.4%43.6%1.4%30.8%22022/09/232022/09/23240.45240.45379.64181.64181.64265.3832.4%184.53184.53442.6030.3%4463.52368.811%164.41164.41132.9446.2%%2.9%185.6%22022/09/232022/09/23219.22219.22190.32167.19167.19142.86228.72228.72197.80-4.2%261.20261.20248.72108.61108.6197.50101.8%33.2%-3.8%-23.5%95.2%22022/09/232022/09/23997.34231.1824.124.10120.71303.9%116.13116.13304.56272.93272.93288.10-64.3%136.48136.4853.56-28.7%91.5%1%331.6%2022/09/23247.64151.3363.6%358.56-30.9%320.33-22.7%81.67203.2%2022/09/2332.6126.3923.6%36.02-9.5%51.021%15.56109.6%2022/09/2327.1220.0728.70-5.5%41.35-34.4%12.47117.5%2022/09/2312.4310.3220.4%24.33-48.9%23.59-47.3%9.8925.6%22022/09/232022/09/23661.1193.60558.5491.504.4%552.9693.8015.4%47.0547.0595.0029.9%44.9044.9089.802.3%-0.2%4.2%天然气HubHub期货(主连合约)美元/MMBtu美国Henry英国NBP现货(远期合约)便士/Therm美国HenryHub现货美元美元/MMBtu美国N.Y.Hub现货美元/MMBtu美元美元/MMBtuGPL现货美元/MMBtuTTF现货欧欧元/兆瓦时美元/MMBtu中国LNG现货(华北)元元/吨美美国天然气库存十亿立方英尺22022/09/232022/09/2377.1024077.76250-8.5%9.309.30537-23.6%5.75.736323.9%3.923.929581.4%-4.0%-55.3%47.2%22022/09/232022/09/2377.765.5688.026.89-3.2%99.4655.0737.3%3.833.839.25102.6%1%9.7%-39.9%2022/09/2328.6131.4-8.9%64.58-55.7%19.5446.4%27.195.2%2022/09/2320.6821.0220.9321.91-5.6%23.862022/09/23715510.3%266-35.7%127.584103.6%2022/09/2339.7746.8771.01-44.0%39.630.4%31.2727.2%22022/09/232022/09/236690028746670027713.0%6660025794.5%66050225114.0%51005100319535.3%3.7%11.4%27.7%煤无烟煤(Q6500,晋城)元/吨2022/09/23193017709.0%17709.0%196017907.8%行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-12-烟煤(Q5500,山西优混)动力煤(Q5500,环渤海指数)焦精煤(太原)煤焦油(华东)工业萘(华东)焦炭(河北)冶金焦(一级，华北)气化焦(山西)焦炭-焦精煤价差元/吨2022/09/23145313666.4%1200124516.7%81179.2%元/吨元/吨元/吨22022/09/232022/09/237357352400734734240073273224000.4%73373330000.3%73373312000.3%0.0%0.0%-20.0%100.0%元/吨元/吨2022/09/23594858990.8%5714536310.9%490421.3%元/吨2022/09/23640064000.0%58509.4%500028.0%495029.3%元/吨元/吨2022/09/23259025900.0%2690-3.7%30902890元/吨2022/09/23266326630.0%274730802935-9.3%元/吨元/吨元/吨22022/09/232022/09/2320502050205020500.0%20502050-9100.0%270027001%217021701090-5.5%0.0%28.4%192.7%C1乙二醇(华东)C1草酸(山东)液氨(山东)尿素(山东)三聚氰胺(四川)硝酸(华东)硝酸铵(河南)硝酸钠(华东)甲醇(华东)一甲胺(华鲁)二甲胺(华鲁)三甲胺(华鲁)DMF(华东)醋酸(华东)元元/吨元/吨22022/09/232022/09/23443034950443134950-0.2%3398149504430950005114511458500.0%0.0%元元/吨2022/09/23400039401.5%302532.2%4250-5.9%37756.0%元/吨2022/09/2325702590-0.8%23907.5%30202610元/吨元/吨2022/09/23810081000.0%80001.3%8300-2.4%9500元/吨2022/09/23225522002.5%201012.2%3170-28.9%182523.6%元元/吨元/吨22022/09/232022/09/233320035003320035000.0%3320034000.0%333003700-3.0%333003700-3.0%0.0%2.9%-5.4%-5.4%元元/吨元/吨22022/09/232022/09/232730273018500277027701600025702570190006.2%25552555158006.8%26602660192002.6%15.6%-2.6%-3.6%元元/吨2022/09/2312300123000.0%13300-7.5%18400-33.2%21500-42.8%元/吨2022/09/2317000170000.0%18000-5.6%170000.0%20500元元/吨2022/09/23910010000-9.0%1110012800-28.9%16500-44.8%元/吨2022/09/23305031003150-3.2%4150-26.5%6050-49.6%醋酐(华鲁)醋酸乙烯(华东)PVA(1799,四川维尼纶)醋酸乙酯(华东)醋酸丁酯(华东)甲醛(河北)甲酸(国内)二甲醚(河南)乙二醇-乙烯价差乙二醇-烟煤价差煤制草酸价差淀粉制草酸价差液氨-烟煤价差尿素-液氨价差元元/吨元/吨2022/09/232022/09/23560056008300550055008600 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12150 12250 -0.8%11450 17450-30.4% 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104