IRENA：2021年可再生能源发电成本报告（EN）

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateUnlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.MaterialinthispublicationthatisattributedTheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforsitoryofpolicytechnologyresourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationofthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,energyaccessenergysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.AcknowledgementshmarkingETHxawattcityAssociation(ESTELA)),MatteoBianciotto(IHA),RinaBohleZeller(VESTAS),ChristianBreyer(LUT),AlexCampbell(IHA),Guiseppezalo·TheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergyforsupportingthebenchmarkingandsurveyofthecostofcapitalforrenewablepowergenerationprojects.trends.rmationortoprovidefeedbackpublicationsirenaorglablefordownloadwwwirenaorgpublicationsclaimersisAllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.ofIRENAThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.TheoyedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.2Thegrowingcompetitivenessofrenewableenergycontinuestoprovidethemostcompellingpathwaytothedecarbonisationoftheglobalenergysystem©sdf_qwe/S4ricitygeneratedbyrenewablesandaffirmingtheiressentiallyenceinthefaceoffossilfuelpricevolatilityasoveritslifetimeeintoprojectcostswithalag,giventhetimedifferencebetweenafinanciallllasonshoreandAlmosttwo-thirds–or163gigawatts(GW)–ofnewlyinstalledrenewablepowerinhadlowercoststhantheworldscheapestcoal-firedoptionsintheG20,confirmingthecriticalroleofcost-competitiverenewablesines5hydropowerwas11%lowerthanthecheapestnewfossilfuel-firedpowerthermoregeothermalandbioenergyremainedonaveragemoreossilfuelfiredoptiongloballyalbeithighlynsscenarioforrenewablecostincreasesareoutweighedbytheextensiveOutlook2022thatlow-costrenewableenergyprovidesthemostcompellingpathwaytothedecarbonisationoftheglobalfutureenergysystemandtheachievementofboththe1.5°Ctargetandthegoalsoftheelectricitypricesonconsumersandindustry.Thisyear’sfossilfuelpriceonserenewablesandenergyefficiencyprovidethenswerbringingunprecedentedbenefitsforconsumerstheenvironment6Figures 8Abbreviations 14Highlights 15EXECUTIVESUMMARY 16 Introduction 21 Costtrends,2010-2021 30RenewablepowerThecompetitivesolutionfornewcapacity 34enewablepower inpowergenerationinEurope ricitycostsin2022 45wablepowergenerationequipmentcostsinand 50ONSHOREWIND 58Highlights 59Introduction 60Windturbinecharacteristicsandcosts 60Totalinstalledcosts 63Capacityfactors 66ntenancecosts Levelisedcostofelectricity 73SOLARPHOTOVOLTAICS 78Highlights 79ecentmarkettrends Totalinstalledcosts 80Capacityfactors 91ntenancecosts Levelisedcostofelectricity 96OFFSHOREWIND 100Highlights 101Introduction 102otalinstalledcosts Capacityfactors 113 Levelisedcostofelectricity 7CONCENTRATINGSOLARPOWER 120Highlights 121Introduction 122Totalinstalledcosts 124Capacityfactors 128ts Levelisedcostofelectricity 33HYDROPOWER 138Highlights 139otalinstalledcosts Capacityfactors 147 Levelisedcostofelectricity 0GEOTHERMAL 152Highlights 153Introduction 154Totalinstalledcosts Capacityfactors 158Levelisedcostofelectricity 159BIOENERGY 162Highlights 163Bioenergyforpower 164 Totalinstalledcosts 165Capacityfactorsandefficiency 168osts Levelisedcostofelectricity ANNEXI:Costmetricmethodology 180 ANNEXII:TheIRENArenewablecostdatabase 200ANNEXIII:Regionalgroupings 2028costofelectricitybytechnology,2020-2021 16edtyscale2010-2021 17y2010-2022 18solarandwindpowertechnologies,2020-2021 28ityscaletechnologies,2010-2021 32apacitynablepowerncapacitywithlowercoststhanthecheapestfossilfuelfiredoption,onth andoffshorewindpowerprojectsoveryuirement 2021/2025 44bygenerationtechnology 45countryandgenerationtechnology...46icesJanuary-May2022 48ionJanuary-May2022 499riceoducerpriceindexannual2015-Q12022 51bymoduletype,2020-2022 53installedcosttrendsin2022 54tcomponent onshorewind,2010-2021 59ontrends,1997-2021 621984-2021 631984-2021 64bycountry,2010-2021 66rdiameterandhubheightbycountry,2010-2021 67eragecapacityfactorsin15countries,1984-2021 68capacityfactorsfornewprojectsin2010-2021 70capacityfactorandwindspeedfornewprojectsbycountrybetween2010and2020 71OMfsin15countries,1984-2021 75year,2010-2021 77forPV,2010-2021 79andmanufacturing(bottom) 82dpercentageincrease(right) 83veragesforutilityscalesystems,2010-2021 87calebycountry,2021 89tiotrend,2010-2021 93lithiumionbatterysystempricesindQ LCOEandrange utility-scalesolarPV(2010-2021) 97eectricityinselectedcountries2010-2021 98landuse2010-2021 99oftotalinstalledcosts,capacityfactors2010-2021 101epthforoffshorewindinChinaftheworld2000-2021 104foroffshorewindbycountry,2000-2025 105capacityforoffshorewind,2000-2021 107rotordiameterforoffshorewindbycountry,2010-2021 107edcostsforoffshorewind2000-2021 108costbreakdownsbynand2019 111offshorewindprojectinEurope,2010-2020 112ecapacityfactorsforoffshorewind,2000-2021 114turbinerotordiameterandhubheight2010-2021 114byprojectinEurope,2010-2025 115specificpower 116ndglobalauction/PPAprices,2000-2024 119d wny(2010/2011and2019/2020) 124collectortypeandamountofstorage,2010-2021 126andstorageduration,2010-2021 1292010-2021 130resource andstorageduration,2010-2021 1332010-2020,bysource 134 orCSPplants(2010-2019) 136hydropower,2010-2021 139verageforhydropower,2010-2021 142hydropowerprojectsandtheglobalributionoftotalinstalledcostsand2016-2021 144forlargehydropowerprojectsbycountry/region,2010-2021 146powerprojectsbycountry/region,2010-2021 146country/region,2010-2021 151country/region,2010-2021 151stscapacityfactors2010-2021 153byproject,technologyandcapacity,2007-2021 157size2007-2021 158e2007-2021 160forbioenergy,2010-2021 163nerationprojectsbydcountry/region,2000-2021 167powergenerationprojectsforifferentcapacityrangesbycountry/region,2000-2021 167tocksforbioenergypowergenerationprojectsbycountryandregion,2000-2021 168ionprojectsbyfeedstockionjectsforbioenergywergenerationprojectsc2003-2022 195larPVcells 2020,2021and2022 199ologyDatabase 201ofelectricitytrendsbytechnology,2010and2021 15projectsbycountry/region,2010and2021 65apacityornewonshorewind2010and2021 692010and2021 76scalePVsystems2010–2021 91and gesforoffshorewind,2010and2021 111edaveragecapacityfactorsforoffshorewindprojectsinsixcountries10and2021 115untryweightedd2010and2021 119markets,2019-2020 132ycomponentandcapacity-weightedestsforhydropowerrange,2000-2021 144Table6.3Hydropowerprojectcapacityfactorsopowerprojectsbycountry/region,2010-2021 148jectcapacityfactorspowerprojectsbycountry/region,2010-2021 148Mcostsmpleof25projects 149agecapacityfactorsofbioenergyfiredpowergenerationprojects,2000-2021 169 projects 189projects 190calculationofPVprojects 190solarPV 192calculationofPVprojects 193costs 83sinstationaryapplications 94COEfromto HectaresperMW 99performanceofCSPplants 135entpowerproducermmekilowatthourctricityesmetresgawattsawatthourgasturbinedioxidetiondaterdirectcurrentdirectnormalirradiationdirectnormalirradiationAdministrationonstructiongigawattserojunctionsferfluidinterdigitatedbackcontactinverterloadingratiooriginalequipmentmanufacturerterawatthoursgywatticrometreHIGHLIGHTSTheglobalweightedaveragecostofnewlycommissionedsolarphotovoltaics(PV),onshoreandoffshorewindpowerprojectsfellin2021.Thiswasdespiterisingmaterialsandequipmentcosts,Theglobalweightedaveragelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)ofnewonshorewindprojectsaddedin2021fellby15%,year-on-year,toUSD0.033/kWh,whilethatofnewutility-scalesolarelectricitygenerationcostsinelectricitytrendsbyorLevelisedcostofelectricity(2021USD/kW)(%)(2021USD/kWh) Bioenergy27142353-13%7268-6%0.0780.067-14% Geothermal2714399147%8777-11%0.0500.06834% Hydropower1315213562%44452%0.0390.04824% SolarPV4808857-82%141725%0.4170.048-88% CSP94229091-4%3080167%0.3580.114-68% Onshorewind20421325-35%273944%0.1020.033-68%Offshorewind48762858-41%38393%0.1880.075-60% changechangechange201020212010202120102021Year-on-yearpercentagereduction2020-20217%Year-on-yearpercentagereduction2020-20217%lThiswasdespiterisingcommodityandrenewableequipmentpricesinsesappearinprojecttotalinstalledcostsanddTheglobalweightedaveragelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)ofnewutility-scalesolarPVprojectsconcentratingsolarpower(CSP)plantcommissionedin2021,aftertwoin2020,deploymentremainsnfromUSD0.039/kilowatthour(kWh)in2020toUSD0.033/kWh.Chinaagaindominatednewonshorewindcapacityadditionsin2021andalsoexperienced,againstthetrendelsewhere,fallingwindturbineprices.ThecostofelectricityfornewonshorewindprojectsexcludingChina,fellbyamoremodestditsnewcapacityadditionsandtheglobalweightedaveragecostofOfshorewind2858.Costreductionswerenotuniversalhowever,thecountryweightedaveragetotalinstalledcostsofewind55005000 4000 20001500 1000 02021USD/kWh0%photovoltaicOfshorewindOnshorewind thanthecheapestnewfossilfuel-firedpowergenerationoptionandthatofonshorewind39%lower.Risingcommodityprices,especiallymaterialspricessuchassteel,copper,polysiliconandaluminium;sawmoduleandwindturbinepricesrisefromaroundQ42020.Forinstance,dependingonmaterialsYetintheglobalweightedaveragecostofelectricityfromnewandintoearlywhenmanyprojectsTheimpactonthelevelisedcostofelectricityforsolarPVandonshorewindis,however,likelytobemodest–intheorderof2-4%forutility-scalesolarPVand4-9%foronshorewind.Increasingprofitmarginstothemoresustainablelevelsseenin2017,mightincreasethisfigureforonshorewindtoanIndeed,theextentofthebenefitsfromrenewablesin2022willbeunprecedented.Assumingaveragewholesalefossilgaspricesin2022ofUSD0.109/kWhinEurope,theaveragegeneratedfuel-onlycostor540%higherthanin2020.TheEuropeanUnion(EU)EmissionsTradingScheme(ETS)emissionpricesalsoraisesfuelcoststoUSD0.27/kWhin2022,or645%higherthanin2020,(FigureES.3).ddinEuropeinanditexceedstheaverageretailtariffexcludingtaxeslfuelpricecrisisLookingatthefuelimports,predominantlyfossilgas.Theunprecedentedextentofthefossilfuelpricecrisisin2022hasovershadowedthefact,thatwithoutrenewables,thesituationforconsumers,economiesandtheMarginalfossilfuelelectricitygeneratingcostsaresohighin2022,thatanewonshorewindplantetmi