贸发会议乌克兰战争的全球影响能源危机报告（2022-08-05）

Source:Shutterstock©RuwanWalpolaExecutivesummary:RecentdevelopmentsSincetheissuanceofthesecondbriefbytheGlobalCrisistheongoingcost-of-livingcrisishavebeenfeltmoredeeplyandwidelyacrosstheworld.Morepeoplearenowforecasttobepushedintofoodinsecurityandextremepovertybytheendof2022.ThemostrecentoperationalprogrammingupdatefromtheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)estimatesthatin2022,345millionpeoplewillbeacutelyfoodinsecureoratahighriskoffoodinsecurityin82countrieswithaWFPoperationalpresence,implyinganincreaseof47millionacutelyhungrypeopleduetotherippleeffectsofthewarinUkraineinallitsdimensions.1Meanwhile,inearlyJuly,theUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeestimatedthatupto71millionpeoplecouldhavealreadybeenpushedintopovertyinthethreemonthssincethestartofthewar,withhotspotsintheBalkans,CaspianSearegionandsub-SaharanAfrica,particularlytheSahel.2Ascitizensinmanycountriesbegintograpplewiththecost-of-livingcrisis,anintensificationofsocialprotestsandriotshasbeenrecorded.AccordingtotheArmedConflictLocationandEventDataProject,thenumberofriotsworldwideincreasedslightlybetweenthefirstandthesecondquartersof2022.3Pricesofcommoditiesinglobalmarketsarestillhighbutstabilizing.ThefoodpriceindexoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)declinedslightlyinJune2022andisdownbyabout3.3percentfromitshistorichighinMarch.Crudeoilpricesdippedbelowthe$100perbarrelmarkatthebeginningofJulyandhavesinceremainednearthatlevel.Agricultureandcommodityspotindexesarenowcloseto,andsomedaysbelow,pre-warlevels.Shippingcostshavealsoslowlybeguntodecrease,especiallyforbunkerandtankershipsthatarethemosthighlycorrelatedwithcommoditiesandthathavecontributedconsiderablytotheincreaseinconsumerpricesandimportcostsacrosstheboard.4FallingpricesarekeytobreakingtheviciouscostcyclehighlightedinGCRGBriefNo.2.ThefallinpricesmighthavebeeninfluencedbybumpercropsinAustralia,Canada,theRussianFederationandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica,aswellasbyoptimismfollowingthesigningon15July2022oftheagreementbetweentheRussianFederation,TürkiyeandUkraine,undertheauspicesoftheUnitedNations,toreintegrategrainsandsunfloweroilfromUkraineintoglobalmarketsandfacilitateunimpededaccesstofoodandfertilizersfromtheRussianFederationwhichhadbeenafundamentalrecommendationbyGCRG.5Recentmovesmayalsosignallessuncertaintyincommoditytradingandtransportmarkets.Lastly,asat30June2022,therewere27countrieswith40measuresrestrictingfoodexports;atpresent,thereare25countrieswitharound39measuresaffectingover8percentofglobaltrade.Inthisregard,thesituationhasameliorated,yetitcouldbefurtherimproved.Theglobalsituationisstillcausingdifficultiesinallregions.Thehighpricevolatilitywitnessedsincethepandemic,particularlyin2022,suggeststhatpricesremainathighlevelsandcouldriseyetagain.Inaddition,althoughthepricesofsomecommoditieshavefallen,duetohighinflation,thesituationhasremainedtightforbillionsofpeople,whosesocioeconomicprospectshavedeterioratedasaresult.Thereareseriousconcernsaboutpotentialstagflationscenarios(lowgrowthandhighinflation)inthesecondhalfof2022andin2023.Indevelopingcountries,exposuretofinancialshocksisincreasingdespitefallingcommodityprices.Energymarketsinparticularareunder1Inearly2022,276millionpeoplewereacutelyfoodinsecurein81countrieswithaWFPoperationalpresence,whichincludedthe193millionpeoplein53countriesthatwereestimatedinGlobalReportonFoodCrisestobeacutelyfoodinsecureandinneedofurgentassistancein2021(FoodSecurityInformationNetwork,2022,GlobalReportonFoodCrises,availableat/;WFP,2022,Globaloperationalresponseplan,UpdateNo.5,availableat/publications/wfp-global-operational-response-plan-update-5-june-2022).onsbasedondatafromtheWorldBankSee/press-releases/global-cost-living-crisis-catalyzed-war-ukraine-sending-tens-millions-poverty-warns-un-development-programme.3See/dashboard/#/dashboard.5See/news/wheat-advances-amid-strike-on-ukraine-port-export-talk-hurdlesand/pages/global-crisis-response-group.stress,astheheatingseasonapproachesinthenorthernhemisphere.Mostconsumershavenotseencommoditypricedeclinestranslatedintolowerinflationrates.InflationcontinuedtoaccelerateworldwideinJuly2022,withstrongcorrelationswiththeincomelevelsofcountries;evenwhileinflationisbreakingmultidecaderecordsinadvancedeconomies,developingcountriesandtheleastdevelopedcountriesinparticularareexperiencingevenhigherlevelsofinflation.However,asfoodand,especially,energypricesareamajorcomponentofrecentinflationmetricsinmanyeconomies,itispossiblethatthemetricsinsomelargeeconomiesmaystabilizeinthenearfuture.Foodpriceshavefallen,yetarestillhigh,abovepre-pandemiclevels,andthefertilizershortageremainsaconcern.6PriceswerealreadyhighatthebeginningofJanuary2022,andincreaseshavebeenbroadbased,affectingalmostallfoodcategories.Itisnoteworthythat,sincethebeginningof2020,thevegetableoilpriceindexhasmorethandoubled,thatofcerealshasincreasedbyover60percentandthatofsugarbyover50percent.7Inaddition,ashighlightedinGCRGBriefNo.2,iffertilizershortagescontinue,thefoodaccesscrisisin2022willbeexacerbatedbyafoodavailabilitycrisisin2023.Theconsequencesofthecrisisincludeworseningnutritionandhealthoutcomesthathavebeenbuildingupoverthelasttwoyears.In2020,almost3.1billionpeoplecouldnotaffordahealthydiet,upby112millioncomparedwithin2019,duetotheimpactofthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemicandrelatedmeasures.8Thecost-of-livingcrisis,andsoaringfoodprices,makeitevenmorechallengingforincreasingnumbersofpeopletoaffordaminimallynutritiousandhealthydiet.BeforetheoutbreakofthewarinUkraine,thenumberofchronicallyundernourishedpeoplehadalreadygrownbyabout150millionsince2019,withupto828millionpeoplein2021affectedbychronichunger(long-termorpersistentinabilitytomeetfoodconsumptionrequirements).9Inconnectionwithsuchpersistentinadequateconsumption,thereisalsoasignificantandwideninggendergap;in2021,thegendergapinfoodinsecuritywasonepercentagepointhigherthanin2020,with31.9percentofwomenworldwidemoderatelyorseverelyfoodinsecure,comparedwith27.6percentofmen.10Projectionsarethatin2022,thenumberofvulnerablewomenforwhomWFPwillprovideessentialpreventionandtreatmentserviceshasincreasedbyalmost50percent.Inparticular,pregnantandnursingwomenareatahighriskofmalnutritionandfoodinsecurity.TheUnitedNationsChildren’sFundreportsarapidincreaseinthenumberofyoungchildrenexperiencingseverewasting,themostseriousformofmalnutrition,whichhassignificantimplicationsforlifeexpectanciesandwell-being.11Anincreasedcostoflivingleadspeopletofindcopingstrategies,suchaspurchasingcheaperandlessnutritiousfood,consuminglessdiversedietsorskippingmeals.Thishasseriouslong-termimplicationsforpeople’shealth,withsocialandeconomicconsequencesacrosssocieties.Therearegrowingfearsofaloomingeconomicslowdownthat,coupledwithhighinflation,mightimplyareturntostagflationattheendof2022orin2023.Consumerpriceindiceskeepclimbing,consumersentimentisdeterioratingandleadingindustrialindicatorsinmanycountriessuggestaslowdowninproduction.However,thesignalsarenotaltogetherclear:unemploymentisstillfallinginsomemajormarkets;andUNCTADmodeldataongrossdomesticproductshowsignalsofaslowdownbutthishasyettogatherpace.6See/spdji/en/indices/commodities/sp-gsci/#overview.7See/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/.ome9Ibid.10Ibid.11See/press-releases/global-hunger-crisis-pushing-one-child-severe-malnutrition-every-minute-15-crisis.(Millionsofdollars)0JUNSource:UNCTADcalculations.Note:Calculationsareofchangesintradebalancesduetochangesinthepricesofcorn,maize,sorghum,barley,soybeanoil,sunfloweroil,fertilizers,crudeoil,gasandcoalStagflationwouldultimatelyacceleratethecost-of-livingcrisisbyreducinghouseholdincome,strainingcountries’fiscalspacesandincreasingfinancialmarketpressures.Financialconditionsindevelopingcountriesarestillworseningdespitethefallincommodityprices,duetoastrengtheningUnitedStatesdollar.Sincethebeginningof2022,thecurrenciesofdevelopingeconomieshavedepreciatedby5.1percentagainstthedollar;withadepreciationof2.1percentinJune.12Inthesameperiod,theyieldofsovereignbondsfromtheseeconomiesincreasedby162basispoints;withanincreaseof64basispointsinJune.13Asaresult,developingcountrydebtsandimportbillsarecomingunderfurtherpressure.ByJune2022,thetradedeficitoflow-incomecountrieswasabout2.5billionhigherthanitmighthavebeenifthepricesofkeycommoditieshadstayedatpre-warlevels.14Inaddition,inthe62mostvulnerablecountries,foodimportbillshaveincreasedby$24.6billionsincethestartofthewar.15TheInternationalMonetaryFundnowsuggeststhatnotonlyare60percentoflow-incomecountriesindebtdistressorfacingahighriskofdebtdistress,butsoalsoare30percentofmiddle-incomecountries(seefigure).16Energypricesarestillhigh,abovepre-warlevels,suggestingfurtherturmoilinenergymarkets,withsignificantglobalimplications.Thepresentbriefaddressesthisissue.12UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromRefinitiv.Notes:Calculationsareunweightedaveragesofnominalexchangeratefluctuationsofthecurrenciesof138developingeconomiesagainstthedollarbetween1Januaryand5July2022andincludedataforcommoncurrencyareas(e.g.EastCaribbeandollar,CentralAfricanCFAfrancandWestAfricanCFAfranc).13Ibid.Notes:Calculationsareunweightedaveragesofbondyieldsissuedby59developingeconomiesbetween1Januaryand5July2022.Countryyieldisestimatedastheunweightedaverageyieldofbondspercountry.Bondscoveredareinstrumentswithprincipalsdenominatedineitherdollarsoreuroswithmaturitiesafter1March2022.ForEurobondinstrumentsissuedunderbothregulationSandrule144A,instrumentsissuedunderthelatterareexcludedtoavoidduplication.lculations15FAO,2022,Aglobalfoodimportfinancingfacility:Respondingtosoaringfoodimportcostsandaddressingtheneedsofthemostexposed,availableat/3/cb9445en/cb9445en.pdf.16See/2022/07/13/facing-a-darkening-economic-outlook-how-the-g20-can-respond/.Theworldisinthegripofamajorenergycrisis,withcountriesworldwideaffectedbyextremelyhighandvolatileprices,particularlyoffossilfuels.Thissituationhasactedasacrucibleforrecenttrendsintheenergymarket.Overtheprecedingtwoyears,theenergymarketexperiencedextremepricevolatility,suchasduringthepandemic,whendemandwasreducedandsupplycontracted;theensuingsurgeindemandoutpacedsupply.ThewarinUkrainehasfurtherdisruptedfossilfuelsuppliesandtheoverallmarket,inwhichtheRussianFederationistheleadingexporterofnaturalgasandthesecondlargestexporterofoil.Risingenergypricesmaypriceoutmanydevelopingcountries,withahighlevelofimpactonthemostvulnerablecitizens,fromenergymarkets.Suchasituationisalreadyimpactinghard-wongainsintheprovisionofaccesstoenergyandthereductionofenergypoverty,andprogresshadalreadybeensetbackduetothepandemic.ThisdynamiciscompoundedbythefoodandfinancecrisesalsoexperiencedinthesecountriesduetothewarinUkraineandthepandemic,whichhaveplacedsignificantsocialandfiscalpressureoncountries.Apotential“scrambleforfuel”,inwhichonlythosecountriespayingthehighestpricecangainaccess,wouldbedevastatingforamultilateralsystembasedontrustandproportionality.Sky-highpricesandgrowingsocialdiscontentareputtingmanyGovernmentsunderpressure.However,evenshort-termenergy-relateddecisionscanhaveimportantlong-termconsequences.Inthiscontext,thebestpolicieswillmixurgencyandstrategy.Withoutsuchpolicies,thereisariskthatsomecountries,especiallythosewithoutadequatefunding,might,underpressure,setacourseforhigh-emission,expensiveenergyinfuture.Atthisjuncture,theinternationalcommunitymustjointlytakestockofhowtomanagethecrisisinawaythatsafeguardsmeetingthetargetintheParisAgreementofnotexceedingaglobalriseof1.5°Cabovepre-industrialtemperatures.Multilateralactioniscritical,yeteachcountryandregionwillneedtodevelopatailoredresponse,inaccordancewithcurrenthumancapacity,infrastructure,accesstofinanceandlocalizedchallenges.Measuresaredividedintoshort-term,medium-termandlong-termpolicieswhich,notwithstandingtheirduration,mustbeundertakentodayinordertobesuccessful.Intheshort-term,countries,especiallydevelopedcountries,mustseektomanageenergydemand.Thismaybedonethroughtheimplementationofnewtechnologiesandbehaviouralchangesrelatedtotheuseofheating,coolingandmobility.Energyefficiencyanddemandreductionhavetheadditionalbenefitofbeingthefastestandmostcost-effectiveandquick-wininterventionsthroughwhichtomitigateenergypriceimpactsintheimmediateterm.Developingcountrieswillbepressedtoensuretheenergytheyhavepowersbusinesstosustaintheeconomyandalsoreachesallcitizens,targetingvulnerablepopulations,toprovidesolutionsforaccessingandaffordingenergy.Highenergypricesontheirownaddpressuretoreducedemand,yettherightpoliciesareneededinordertoensurethatsuchareductioniscontrolled,strategicandequitable.Medium-termandlong-termmeasuresingovernmentenergypolicyandinvestmentmustalignwiththeSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandtheParisAgreement.Thecrisishasemphasizedtheneedforenergyresilienceandapushforrenewableenergysources.Highfossilfuelpricesserveasanopportunityintherenewableenergytransition;althoughrenewableenergypriceshavealsosignificantlyincreased,thecomparativeincreaseinfossilfuelpricesrenderstherenewableenergysourcescostcompetitive.Toacceleratethistransition,afocusonpoliciesandframeworkconditionsisrequired,toattractinvestmenttoexpandcleanenergyaccessthroughon-gridconnectionsanddecentralized,off-gridsolutions.Addressingpotentialbottlenecksintherenewableenergysupplychainandfairlyandsustainablycapturingitsbenefitswillalsobekey.Mostimportantly,confident,no-regretsleadershipisneededtosteertheworldonacoursetomeetthe1.5°Ctarget,ensuringajusttransition.PulsePulseoftheglobalcrisis+33%ndexandshippingpricesarebasedontheClarksonsResearchseaindexSource:AdobeStock©ASPhotoProjectShort-term,medium-termandlong-termpoliciesThecrisisisglobal,yetwillimpactcountries,andpeopleandregionswithincountries,differentlyandtodifferentdegrees.Somecountrieswillfaceextremefoodandenergyinsecurity,potentiallyleadingtoorexacerbatingsocialdiscontent.High-incomecountrieswillbebetterprotectedfromsuchshocks,asGovernmentshaveaccesstogreaterpublicfundingtoimplementrescuepackagesforcitizensandbusinesses.However,thepoliciestheychoosemustbeorientedtowardsmitigatingthecrisis,ratherthantowardsshort-termprotectionthatmightworsenit,suchasprovidingblanketsubsidiesforfuelorelectricity.Whileadvancedeconomiesmightbebetterabletocope,theactionstheytakewillhaveimpactsbeyondtheirborders.AsGovernmentsseekadditionalsupply,theymustconsiderhowmuchistrulyneeded,forhowlongandwhere.Developedcountriesmusttakeactioninawaythatposestheleastburdenondevelopingcountriesandavoidsapotentialscrambleforfuel.Inaddition,thebiofuelssectorservestohighlightthecomplexinteractionbetweenthefoodandenergydimensionsofthecrisis.Worldwide,thishasledtoarangeofresponsesfromGovernments,astheyseektobalanceavailability,prices,emissionsandlong-termstrategies.Asenergydemandincreasesandpricesremainelevatedfollowingthepandemic,countriesmustdecidewhethertoincorporatebiofuelsintoenergypricemitigationstrategiesorloosenrequirementsforbiofuelsasaresponsetohighgrainprices.Thecrisishasrevealedtheneedforanintegratedapproach,wherebycountriesmustconsiderdomesticfoodsecurityandenergysecurityneedswhenintegratingbiofuelsintolong-termenergyandglobalfoodsecuritydiscussions.Countries,especiallydevelopedcountries,mustmanageenergydemandSomemeasurestoreducedemandcouldbetakenimmediately,suchasturningdowncoolingandheatingtemperaturesandreducingairtravel.Otherscouldbegintoberampedupwithinthenextthreemonths,withsignificantcontributionsbyJuly2023,suchasretrofittingbuildingswithimprovedinsulationand/orheatpumps.1.Sustainableheatingtoreduceenergydemand.Withheatingaccountingfor50percentofglobalfinalenergyconsumptionin2021,quickwinsareavailableinthebuildingsector.17Significantlyupscalingimprovedbuildinginsulationisbothcosteffectiveandstraightforwardinimplementation.Inregionsinwhichtheyareaffordable,theimplementationofpublicandconcessionalfinancingfortherapidexpansionoftheuseofheatpumps,whicharetypically3–4timesasefficient17See/fuels-and-technologies/heating.PolicyPolicy1(continued)asfossilfuelboilers,shouldbemadeanimmediatepriority.18Forsignificantprogressintheshortterm,productioncapacitiesmustbesignificantlyexpanded,currentsystemsmustberetrofittedwithdigitalizedsmartcontrolsandimmediateinvestmentmustbemadeininstallationandmaintenanceskills.2.Sustainablecoolingtoreduceenergydemand.In2018,coolingaccountedfor17percentofenergydemandinbuildings;thisfigureisgrowingrapidlyandcouldtripleby2050.Immediatelyavailabletoolstoreduceenergydemandfromcoolingincludetheinstallationofcoolroofs(thatis,surfaceswithalightenedcolourtoreflectmoresolarenergyinthevisiblespectrum)andnature-basedsolutionsthatdonotrequireenergyuse.19Inaddition,reducingthesetpointtemperatureby1°Ccanreducetheenergyconsumptionofanairconditionerbyupto10percent.Immediatepricesupporttolow-incomeconsumerstoacceleratetheuptakeofefficientfans,refrigeratorsandairconditionerscanlowerenergycostsandprovideavarietyofsocialbenefits,ascananeconomicstimulusforretrofittinginbuildingsthatpromotesclean,efficientcooling.Finally,climate-smart,efficientcoldchainsandtheuseofnewrefrigerationtechnologiescanreducerefrigerationcosts,reducefoodwasteandincreaseincomesforfarmers.203.Reducedenergyuseinmobility.Almost60percentoftheglobaloilsupplyisconsumedbythetransportsector.21Intheshortterm,demandcanbereducedbyloweringspeedlimitsforcarsandthroughtheuseofcar-sharing,theincreaseduseofpublicandrailtransportwhereavailableandtheavoidanceoftrips,particularlythoseinvolvingairtravel.Thesemayappearasminorbehaviouralchanges,yetanalysisbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyhasfoundthat,intheshortterm,throughaspeedlimitreductionforcarsandheavytrucksof10km/honhighways,around290and140thousandsofbarrelsofoiluseperday,respectively,canbesaved.22Thisisnotpoliticallyunfeasible;duringtheoilcrisisin1973,manycountriesintroducedlowerspeedlimits,suchastheUnitedStates,andtheuseoftemporaryspeedlimits,tocombatpollutionandensureroadsafety,isnotuncommon.Inaddition,intheshortterm,efficientdrivingmeasuresforfreightandgoodsdeliverycansavearound320thousandsofbarrelsofoiluseperday,tobeeffective,suchmeasuresmustbeaccompaniedbystrongpublicawarenesscampaigns.Wherefeasible,telecommutingshouldalsobepromotedandencouraged.Whilepricedynamicsontheirownmayreduceenergydemandbyconsumers,someGovernmentsarealsoencouragingbehaviouralchanges.Inthepasttwomonths,forexample,GermanyandJapanhaverequestedcitizenstotakeenergyconservationmeasuressuchasloweringcoolingandheatingtemperatures,turningoffunnecessarylightsandreducinghotwaterusage.2318Ibid.19See/chilling-prospects-2021.20See/our-focus-safeguarding-environment-implementation-multilateral-environmental-agreements-montreal-protocol/energy-efficient-and-green-cold-chain.21Ibid.22See/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-cut-oil-use.23See/content/d0c5815f-f0a2-49ad-8772-f4b0fbbd2c94,/business/energy/japan-ask-households-companies-save-energy-this-summer-2022-06-07/and/business/energy/hamburg-senator-warns-hot-water-rationing-if-gas-shortage-becomes-acute-2022-07-02/.3Car-freeSundaysinlargecities 4 2WorkfromhomeuptothreedaysaweekwherepossibleAlternateprivatecaruseinlargecities5 7PromoteefficientuseoffreighttrucksandgoodsdeliveryT9AvoidbusinesstravelwhenalternativesexistHastenadoptionofelectric10andmoreefficientvehicles83Car-freeSundaysinlargecities 4 2WorkfromhomeuptothreedaysaweekwherepossibleAlternateprivatecaruseinlargecities5 7PromoteefficientuseoffreighttrucksandgoodsdeliveryT9AvoidbusinesstravelwhenalternativesexistHastenadoptionofelectric10andmoreefficientvehicles8ReduceReducespeedlimitonhighwaysbyatleast10km/h1SLOWA10-pointplanSLOWtocutoiluseMakeMakepublictransportcheaper;incentivizemicromobility,walkingandcyclingSUNDAYUrgeUrgecar-sharingandpracticesthatdecreasefueluse6TTPreferPreferhigh-speedandnighttrainstoairplaneswherepossibleGovernmentsmustidentifyandtargetvulnerablepopulations,toprovidesolutionsforaccessingandaffordingenergyIntheshortterm,developingeconomieswillstruggletoobtaintheenergysupplytheyneed.Inevitably,vulnerablepopulationswillbepushedfurtherbackwithregardtoaccesstoenergyandcleancookingsolutions,losinghardwongainsinachievingSustainableDevelopmentGoal7.Developingcountrieswillthereforeneedsustainableresponsesthatprioritizevulnerablehouseholds,communitiesandpopulations.Some733millionand2.4billionpeoplestilllackaccesstoelectricityandcleancooking,respectively,acrosssub-SaharanAfricaandSouthAsiainparticular.24Duringthepandemic,thesefiguresworsened,ashouseholdbudgetsconstrictedandfamiliesreturnedtousinglesscleantechnologies,whichoftenaffectedwomenandgirlsthemost.251.Access.Short-termsolu