RCEP协议的建立及泛亚太地区经济复苏趋势分析-D

RCEP协议的建立及泛亚太地区经济复苏趋势分析MarketStrategy市场策略Positive Catalyst from

RCEP

JakeWang凸汀()75wangchangJiang@AndyHuang女凯鸿(86755)23976702.com.hkto

2020年11月20日JackWu吴狄(86755)2397xi1牁(852)25097202EconomicRecoveryinAsia-PacificRegionRCEP协议的建立预期将利好泛亚太地区经济复苏Summary摘要OnNovember15,China,TheRepublicofKorea,Australia,Australia,NewZealandandthe10ASEANcountries,atotalof15

HSI&HSCEIQuarterlyPerformanceformallysignedtheRegionalComprehensiveEconomic

H(L

—H{

11,400MM

GDPamount,

27,000

11.10010O券population,andtradevolumeofthe15membersaccountforw究报告研about30%ofthecorrespondingrespectiveglobalamounts.ThesigningoftheRCEPagreementmeansthatnearlyone-thidoftheglobaleconomywillbecomeanw究报告

O2424,00023,OOO31-JUI

心 30·Sep 31心ct

10O100009.6009.3009.000andinclusive

ofits

members

than

previouseconomicagreements.Sincethecountriesedinthe「eementarehighlycomplementaryintheireconomicstructureanditisseentobehighlyconducivetothedevelopmentofChina's

Sources:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanlntemationalimportsand

exports

with

China'stradeimportsexpectedto

QuarterlyDailyTurnoverw市场策略

3

doilyavglumovec(HK$mn)regionalindustrychain

andvalue

chain

andreducefriction

2OO.ooothroughlong-termmutuallybeneficialgoodsandservices.The

1SO.OOOintegration

ofeconomictrade

withinthe

Asia-Pacificregion

100.000throughpartialconcessionstomembercountriesinforeigntradewillbecomeanimportantforegroundforChinatopromotetheBeltddedreshapeedstructe;snn

0

g 30-S31-0ctexpectedtodeepenregional「ationinEastAsia,whichmayalsohelpaccelerateinternationalcirculationoftheRMBcurrency.What'smore,itwillhelpChinatoemergeattheefrontofglobaltade「acticesand「nancethroughparticipationinestablishinghighstandardrulesofthetradeagreement.Forsectorsunderourcoverage,industriessuchasautomobiles

Sources:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternationalNqENU&components,banking,cleanenergy(solar),consumer(apparel),electricequipment,infrastructure,internet,machinery,portsandshipping&logisticsareexpectedtobenefit;sectorssuchascementandconstructionmaterials,consumer(food&beverage,householdproducts,retail),andrealestatewouldlikelyremainneutral,whileotherindustriessuchasaviation,cleanenergy(naturalgas),conglomerate,consumer(hotels),education,electricity,environmentalprotection,consumer(gaming),healthcare,manufacturing,nonferrousmetals,preciousmetals,telecommunicationequipment,telecommunicationservices,andnon-bankfinanceareexpectedtobeNqENU1115日，中10国15国正式签署区域全面经济伙伴关系RCEP)协定。协15个成员国GDP总量、所覆盖人口以及贸易总额均占全球总量约。RCEP协议的签署意味着全球近三分之一的经济体址形成一体化大市场。其规则制定标准较商，规则更加灵活、包融。由千协议覆盖国家在经济结构有利于中国进出口，中国；化解过剩产能；通过长期互惠的货物、服务贸易构建起稳定的区域产业链、价值链减少区域摩擦：一体化通过对成员国在外利以整合亚太地医，是中国推进一带一路、的重要铺垫，人民币的国际化；则的体系。对千我们覆盖的行业而言，汽车及零部件、银行、清洁能源（太阳能）、消费｛服装）、电力设备、基建、互联网、机械、港口和航运物流行业预期将会受益；而水泥建材、消费（食品饮料，日用品，零售）、房地产行业则保持中性。航空、清洁能源（天然气）、综合、消费（酒店）、教育、电力、环保、消费（博彩）、医药、制造、有色金属、贵金属、通信设备、RCEP建立的直接影响轻微．＿巠竺W玄它弇3』点alWeexpecttoseeanoscillatinguptrendintheHongKongstockmarketintheshortrun.Theincreaseintradeactivitywithmembercountrieswilllikelystimulatetherevivalofthedomesticmanufacturingindustryandacceleratetherecoveryofthedomesticeconomyomthepandemic.However,sinceChinaandmostoftheRCEPmembertiesalreadyhavebilateralfeetade「eements,theRCEPmaynotbringasignificantincreasetothedomesticeconomyinthenearmarketriskappetitehaspartiallyrebounded.AlthoughthepandemicsituationoverseasmaystillexperienceseveralrelapsesbeforethereisaalapplicationofavalidCOVID-19vaccine,furtherblockade「esmaygraduallyhavelessimpactontheeconomyandcapitalmarketsgiventhatanumberofmonetarypolicytoolsarestillunderpinnedinEuropeandtheUnitedalongwithofmoregloballydevelopedmeasuresincopingwiththepandemic.UncertaintyrelatedtotheUSpresidentialelectionhasbutthenewroundoffiscalstimulusisupintheairHongKong'slocaleconomyhasseenaninitialendfromthebottomGDPgrowthratemayreturntopositivein1020ifHongKongcansoonreopenitscustoms.WeexpecttheHongKongstockmarketto＿巠竺W玄它弇3』点al1一P总0BS港股市场短期内预计将呈波动上升走势。与成员国之间的贸易活跃度提升有望剌激制造业回暖，在一定程度上加RCEP多数成员困之间已经拥有正在生效的双边自贸协定，短期内RCEP的建立可能并不会对国内经济带来特别明显的增堡。近期市场风险偏好有所回升尽管在有效的新冠疫苗得到广泛应用前且治疗疫情方面亦存有较多经验，后续封锁措施对千经济及资本市场的扰动预计冲击将逐渐减弱。美国大选相关不确定性有所减少，但新—轮的财政刺激方案依旧悬而未决。香港本地经济呈复苏态势若后续能尽快实现通关20211一P总0BS＿1一P总巠竺W玄它弇＿1一P总巠竺W玄它弇3』点0BSalNqENUAnOverviewoftheRCEPAgreement 4ComparisonbetweentheRCEP,USMCAandCPTPP 6ImpactonCoveredSectors 10MarketViews 141.AnOverviewoftheRCEPAgreementTheRCEP协议简介NqENUTheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP)agreementistheworld'slargestfreetradeagreement.OnNovember15,China,TheRepublicofKorea,Australia,NewZealandandthe10ASEANcountriesIndonesiaeMalaysia,Ph仆ippines,VietnamMyanmarCambodiaLaosandBrunei),atotalof15countries,formallysignedtheRCEPagreement.ThecombinedGDPNqENU区域全面经济伙伴关系RCEP)协定是全球规模最大的自由贸易协定1115日，中国、、澳大利亚、新西兰10国（、马来西亚、老挝、文莱，共5国，正式签署P协定勺中5个成员国P总量、所覆盖人口以及贸易总额均占全球总量RCEP协议的签署意味若全球近三分之一的经济体量形成一体化大市场。TheRCEPagreementenhancesliberalizationandfacilitationoftradeandinvestment.TheRCEPeementrequiresall15memberstocommittootariffs,openi「ketsandreducetradebarriers.Forconsumers,itisbeneficialin:(1)reducingandexemptingtradetariffs,thusreducingthepriceofimportedgoods;(2)industrialcooperationtoreducethepriceofdomesticcommodities;and(3)reducingbarriersininternationaltavelproducers,itisbeneficialin:1educingproductioncosts;「oducingadvancedtechnology;and4.imp「ovingthequalityofcommodities.巠竺W玄它弇3』点alRCEPRCEP协定要求15个成员国均承诺降至零关税、开放市场、减少贸易壁垒。对消费者而言有利千：1减免贸易关税，降低进口荫品价格：2产业协作，降产商；3.巠竺W玄它弇3』点al＿TheobjectivesoftheRCEPareto:(a)establishaandmutuallybeneficialeconomicpartnershipframeworktofacilitatetheexpansionofregionaltradeandinvestmentandcontributetoglobaleconomicgrowthanddevelopment,takingintoaccountthestageofdevelopmentandeconomicneedsoftheParties,especiallyofLeastDevelopedCountryParties;(b)progressivelyliberalizeandfacilitatetradeingoodsamongthePartiesthrough,interprogressiveoftariffandnon-tariffbarriersonsubstantiallyalltradeingoodsamongthe(c)progressivelyalizetadeinservicesamongthePartiestoachievesubstantialeliminationofrestrictionsand「「ymeasureswithrespecttotadeinservicesamongtheParties;and(d)createaliberal,facilitative,andcompetitiveinvestmentenvironmentintheregion,thatwillenhanceinvestmentopportunitiesandtheprotection,andliberalizationofinvestmentamongtheParties.＿1一P总0BSRCEP协定的（一）一个现代、全面、高质鼠和互惠共点的经济伙伴关系合作框架，以促进区推动全球经济增长与发展同时兼顾缔约方特别，所处的发展阶段和经济需求；（二）通过逐步取消缔约方之问实质上所有货物贸易的关税和非关税壁垒，1一P总0BS取消缔约方之间在服务贸易方面的限制和歧视性措施；以及（四）在区域内创造自由、便利和具有竞争力的投资环境，以增加缔约方之间的投资机会，提升投资的促进、保护、便利化和自由化。NqENUTheASEANisnowChina'slargesttradingpartner.Intheistee「sof2020,tradebetweenChinaandASEANreachedUS$481.81billionup5.0YoY,andChina'sinvestmentinASEANeased76.6%YoY.In2019,NqENU东盟目前是中国最大的贸易伙伴2020年前三季度4,818.1亿美元5.0中76.6%。2019年14RCEP协议成员国的总贸易逆差为937.3亿美元。RCEPmembercountriestradevolumewithChinaoverthepastfouryears(US$10,000) 过去4年RCEP成员国与中国贸易金额（万美元） 35,000,00030,000,00025,020,000,00015,000,00010,000,0005,000,000。

■2020-04 ■2019-12 ■2018-12 2017-12 ■2016-12谷 仑 $ $ $ b `e 求 e- ＄ 令 令 ｀ ．- '\,i。 心Q 仑 令仑 - '\,i。 心

Qo ＼

-s,t

ob Qo 心｀令$谷(.,,- "$谷(.,,- "令玄它弇今玄它弇Sources,Guoraian'sAdministrationofCustoms.巠竺W3巠竺W3』al点 过去4年RCEP成员国与中国贸易差额（万美元） 点6,000,0002,000,0

■2020-04 ■2019-12 ■2018-12 2017-12 ■2016＿(2,000,0＿(4,000,0(6,000,0(8,000,0(1

0000。00)00)00)00)谷 仑 '-, `b 0000。00)00)00)00)0BSQ 雹 忒 仍 e ＼令｀森 b--\t,"仑 0BS一§ ?心° 穸 心令泸 ＄仑 翁 ｀＄ 令令 $ v令。 守 e Q一1P总Sources,GuotaiJunanlntematione/,Chine'SGeneralAdminis廿ationofCus1P总NqENUThespacefortariffconcessionsbetweenChinaandJapanmightbeahighlightoftheRCEPagreement.BeforetheRCEPagreementcameintobeing,JapanhadnotsignedafreetradeagreementwithChina,andthebilateraltradetariffreductionspaceislargerthanthatforotherRCEPmembers.Therefore,themaximummarginalcontributiontotheimplementationoftheRCEPisthereductionoftradeandinvestmentresistancebetweenChinaandInthetradevolumebetweenChinaandJapanwasUS$315.03billion,andthe「adedeficitwasUS$28.49billionUnderthe「monizedSystem(HSin2019thecategorywiththehighestshareofChina'sexportstoJapanasaproportionofChina'sglobalexportswereore,slagandash(63.40%,withexportvalueofmillion),productsofmeat,fish,crustaceans,mollusksandotheraquaticinvertebrates(30.82%,million)andliveplants;stemandroot;flowerarrangementandleafclusterUS$110million);thecategorywiththehighestshareofimportsfromJapantoChinaasaproportionofglobalimportstoChinaweremiscellaneousproducts(57.69%,withimportvalueofphotographicandfilmsupplies(45.80%,million)andmusicalinstrumentsandNqENU中日关税减让空间或是RCEP在RCEP协议落地之前，日本与中国并没有签署自由贸易协定，RCEP成员国更大因此，RCEP协定落地的最大边际贡献是中国与日本之间贸易与投资阻力减少2019年，中国与日本贸易金额为3,150.3亿美元，贸易逆差为284.9亿美元按照编码协调制度HS)分类来看，2019年，中国出口日本占中国出口全球份额最高的分类为矿砂矿渣及矿灰63.40,出口额为1,107百万美元动物及其他水生无脊椎动物的制品C3,2,848百万美元）和活植物；茎、根；插花、簇叶(%,0百万美元；中国从日本进口占中国从全球进口份额最高的分类为杂项制品(.%，进口额为1,1百万美元，照相及电影用品(,1,1百万美元）和乐器及其零件、附件32.26%,170百万美元口巠竺W玄它弇alComparisonbetweentheRCEPUSMCA巠竺W玄它弇al＿3』点TheRCEPisconducivetoeconomictradeadvancementamongitsmembercountriesandtheprocessofregionalintegrationinEastAsia.TheRCEPisanupgraded10+1freetradeagreementoftheexistingagreementswithinASEANcountries.SincethecoveredintheagreementarehighlycomplementaryintheireconomicstructureandexportsitisseentobehighlyconducivetothedevelopmentofChina'simportsandexportsandsolvingproblemsofexcessTheagreementwillhelptoupastableegionalindustrychainandvaluechainreducefrictionanddeepenregionalintegrationinEastAsiathroughlong-termmutuallybeneficialgoodsandWhat'sitwillhelpChinatoemergeattheforefrontofglobaltradepracticesandgovernancethroughparticipationinestablishinghigh「drulesofthetradeagreementAcomparisonbetweentheRCEPtheUS-Mexico-CanadaAgreementUSMCAandtheehensiveandProgressivePartnership(CPTPP)hasbeensummarizedas＿3』点1一P总0BSRCEPCEP是对现有协议内包含的各国与东盟的“10+1''自贸协定的升级，互补性强，有利千中国进出口、化解过剩产能，通过长期互惠的货物、服务贸易构建起稳定的区域产业链、价值链减少区域摩擦一体化并且通高标准的贸易协定利千中国融入新的世界贸易规则的体系。其与美墨加协议1一P总0BSPefndPs.ePcountriesphefCPTPPbuttheRCEPcoversapopulationandawiderrangethanboththeCPTPPandUSMCA.NNqENU覆盖人口和GDP规模更高。RECP涵盖的国家与CPTPP有重叠，但其覆盖的人USMCA。RCEP覆盖总人口达22.7亿左右，巨域占全球GDP约30%。

及范围更广，也高千．Taxratesandtariffcoverageareslightlylower.TheRCEPstipulatesthatover90%ofthetadeingoodswithintheregionswilleventuallyachievezerotariffs,mainlybyreducingtaxestozeroimmediatelyorbyreducingtaxestozerowithin10yearsupontheentryintotheagreement.TheCPTPPagreementpromoteszerotariffson99%ofitsgoodswithin15yearsoftheagreementbeingreached.．税率和税则覆盖范围略低于CPTPPRCEP规定协议生效后区域内以上的货物贸易将最终实现零关税，主要是立刻降税到零10年内降税到零口CPTPP15年内推动99％的商品零斗税。esfnemore.nsferulesf,ePseeregionalaccumulationintheregion,whichmeansthatthevaluecomponentofoductorigincanbeaccumulatedintheregioncomposedofthe15membercountries,andthevaluecomponentfomeithersideoftheRCEPwillbetakenintoaccount.TheUSMCAincreasedtherequirementsoftheoriginal5飞飞」菩飞'all在可来原分在成A值c黜立原品产得使P而内在虑考被会则原积累域区用使区地本在P都分p成值价的方一何任E原CR的R自来面 等了方积衅分行也亡中威i进区的成构阳员成个1话灵更则规地产原equirementsforautomobileproducts,amongothers,basedontheoriginalNorthAmericanTradeAgreement.However,almostallproductsoftheCPTPPeapplicabletothechangein「dsoftaxclassification,andonlyspecificproductsareapplicabletoregionalvaluecomponentsand「oductionsstand「s.o,eP5飞飞」菩飞'all在可来原分在成A值c黜立原品产得使P而内在虑考被会则原积累域区用使区地本在P都分p成值价的方一何任E原CR的R自来面 等了方积衅分行也亡中威i进区的成构阳员成个1话灵更则规地产原标AC变Ms类归U和千用pC适较相产有所乎节章品织纺了。性坏破和扰干的链业产对育可定协易贸了少减几PP加增C而独。单求是要地产更准标序工产生品产禾成值活提价千品』基的定朸易贸美北顺规地产原产定的特p仅c准R标AC变Ms类归U和千用pC适较相产有所乎节章品织纺了。性坏破和扰干的链业产对育可定协易贸了少减几PP加增C而独。单求是要地产更准标序工产生品产禾成值活提价千品』基的定朸易贸美北顺规地产原产定的特p仅c准R1BP总state-ownedenterprises,etc,buttheCPTPPhascorrespondingprovisions,whichisahighstandardmodelintherentworldtradeagreementwithrelativelystrictrules.TheUSMCAhassthatbindMexicoandCanadatosignfree-tradeagreementswithid-worldnon-marketeconomies,anda"Su1BP总规则更加灵活、包融。RCEP20章节，少千USMCACPTPP3430章节，其中并无劳工、环t有相应条款，为当前世界贸易协定中高标准样板，规则相对严格。而USMCA三方非市场经济国家签署自由贸易协定章节，SunsetClause),即协议必须每六年由3个国家审核一次。相较CPTPP,RECP更具包容性使得各个经济体以利千多方的角度从事自由贸易，更具稳定性。NqENUePsetshstandardsfruleseeAd.estandardsfNqENUgovernmentprocurementandsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises,whichgobeyondthescopeofWTOprovisions.ItistheisttimethatChinahasjoinedglobaltradeelationsunderanegativelistmechanism,whichindicatesthatChinaismorecloselyatingwithinternationalstandards,ComparedwiththeRCEP,theCPTPPandUSMCAhavehigherstandardsandsetsthetrendforfuturetradeagreements.RCEP同USMCA和CPTPP类似规则制定标准较高。RCEP在诸多条款的准则要高千WTO,包括电子商务、知识产权、竞争政策、政府采购、中小企业等内容，超过世贸组织规定的范畴。代表中国更进一步融入世界规则，是中国首次以负面消单制度加入全球贸易关系。但相较RCEP,CPTPP和USMCA标准更高，代表若未来多边贸易协定的趋势口ComparisonofRCEPwithUSMCAandCPTPPCountriesPopulation/economysizeRulesof0「iginTaxrateandtariffcove「age

RegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP)ASEANcountriesBruneiCambodia,Indonesia,仆ippines,Singapore,Vietnam),andJapan,South「tNewZealandandChinaCoveratotalpopulationof2.27billionandaccountsforabout30%ofglobalTheAgreementallowsfortheapplicationofacompositionalruleof「igin,takingintoaccountthevaluecomponentfromanyRCEPpartywhendeterminingwhethergoodsaresubjecttoRCEPtariffences1Morethan90%ofthe1

U.S.-Mexico-CanadaAgreement(USMCA)UnitedStates,Mexico,CanadaCovernearly500millionpeopleandaccountsfornearly28%oftheglobalGDPUpgradetheoriginalNORTHAmericaneeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)withcountry-of-originrequirements「productssuchasOnthebasisoftheoriginalNORTHAmerican「adeAgreement(NAFTA),thereareaseriesofprovisionsconcerningtherealizationofotariffonagriculturalproductsand

ComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership(CPTPP)玄丐弇Japan,Canada,Australia,Chile,NewZealand,Brunei,Vietnam玄丐弇巠竺W3e芒巠竺W3e芒alInalmostallproductsareeoestanddfclassificationchange,andonlyspecificproductsareapplicabletoregionalvaluecomponentsandproductionprocessstandards一P总0一P总0BSThescopeof 20chapters,focusingontraditionalissues topics,excludinglabor,environment,coveredby state-ownedenterprisesandotherthe contents.agreement

autopartsamongthethreecountries,andthenon-useofexportsubsidiesorWTOspecialagricultu「alsafeguardmeasu「esfo「productsexportedtoeachother'smarkets34chapters 30chaptersTradeandinvestmentaccess

Thenegativelistismainlyadopted,andsomecountriesadoptthepositivelistcommitmentamongwhichsomecountriesintradeinserviceswillbeconvertedintoanegativelistwithin6yearsaftertheentryintoforceoftheagreement

Negativelist NegativelistSource:ChinaFreeTradeZoneServiceNetwork.AcademyofInternationalTradeCooperation,MinistryofCommerce.CanadianGovernmentwebsite,USTR.RCEP、USMCA、CPTPP对比区域全面经济伙伴关系，美墨加 协议 UCRCEP)国家 东盟（文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老美国、墨西哥、加拿挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南）及日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新匹兰共15国

全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定玄岂弇玄岂弇'－a巴l 3芒sWel~日本'－a巴l 3芒sWel~覆盖人口和经 覆总人口达亿，区域占全 覆盖近5亿人口，经济总痲占 覆盖人口约亿，区域占全球济总氮 球GDP约尔 比全球近28% GDP的约13.5%原产地规则

协定允许在确定货物是否适用在原有北美自由贸易协定的基在CPTPP中，几乎所有产品适用RCEP关税优惠时，将来自础上针对汽车等产品的原产地千税则归类改变标准，仅特定产品RCEP任何缔约方的价值成分都要求升级 适用千区域价值成分和生产工序考虑在内，实行原产成分累积规 准则M60税率和税则覆 协定生效后区域内以上的 在原有北美贸易协定的基础 根据各缔约方的具体承诺，在逐盖范围 货物贸易将最终实现零关税，主 上，涉及三国间农产品贸易实 取消关税的过程中，9的关税项M60一BS0lv要是立刻降税到零和10年内降 现零关税、汽一BS0lvI用出口补贴或WTO特殊农业保障措施等一系列条款I题范围入方式

20章章节以传统议题为主内容口以负面清单为主，部分采用吓面清单承诺模式，其中服务贸易部分国家将千协定生效后6年内转化为负面清单

共34章章节 共30章章节NqENU，商ImpactonCoveredSectors覆盖行业所受影响．ThefollowingtableshowstheimpactoftheRCEPonourcoveredsectors.Forsunderourcoverage,industriessuchasautomobiles&components,banking,cleanenergy(solar),consumer(apparel),tc,tuct,,machin「,sdshipping&sedosectssuchscementdcontnmaterial,consum「d&,d,retail),realestatearelikelyremainneutral,whileotherindustriessuchasaviation,cleanenergy(naturalgas),consumer(hotels),electricity,environmentalprotection,consumer(gaming),healthce,manufacturin,rousmetals,smetals,nt,servicesandnon-bankfinanceareexpectedtobeimpactedlessfromtheestablishmentoftheRCEP.．玄它弇alRCEP建立的影响如下表所示。对千我们覆盖的行业而言，汽车及零部件银行洁洁能沥（太阳能）（电力设备、基建、互联网、机械Il而水泥建材食品饮料，日用品零售、、教育、电力、）、玄它弇alSector行业Automobile&Components汽车及零部件

ImpactontheSector对行业的影响Positive正面

Comments巠竺W3巠竺W3』点＿itispositiveforChina'sautoindustry.InviewofOEMs,despitethatvehicleexportsiscurrentlyrelativelylow,futurevehicleexportscouldbeagrowthengine,especiallyforpassengerGeelyAuto(00175HK)andeatWallMotor(02333HK)areincreasingtheirexportsmix.InseaslocalizationstrategyshouldbebasedonCKD「SKDtheearlystage,inwhichtheloweringofimporttariffsshouldbenefit.Inmsofpartsandcomponents,wehavenoticedthatcountrieshaveentstancestowardstaxdutiesonimportandexportparts,butthesigningoftheRCEPshouldbenefittheentirevehicleinthereducingthecostofpartscirculationandovingefficiencyintheindustrialchain.＿1一P总0BS整体而言，对中国汽车行业为正面。整车方面，中国现在整车出口比例较低，但未来汽车出口将为—定转折点，尤其是乘用车吉利汽车(00175HK)及长城汽车(02333HK)出口比例逐渐增加。加上，初期在海外本士化战略也可能以CKD或SKD为主，对千进口关税减让是其一利好。零部件方面，各国对千进出口零部件的态度有差异，但RCEP将1一P总0BSBanking银行业Cement&ConstructionMaterials水泥建材行业CleanEnergy-Solar消洁能源－太阳能CleanEnergy-Wind&Othe「S－Consumer-Appa「el消费－服装

Positive正面Neutral中性Positive正面al中性Positive正面

TheRCEPwillincreasetradingamountandelatedfinancialwhichisexpectedtobenefitsettlementandclearingloansrelatedtoofthebanking「BankswithahighproportionofassetsinASEANsuchasBOC(03988HK)andBOCHK(02388HK)NNqENURCEP将会增加贸易额及相关的金融服务，预计将使银行业的结算及清掷业务、贸易相关贷款等受益。在东南亚国家联盟有较高资产比重的银行，如中国银行(03988HK)、中银香港(02388HK)预计将会受益砓多。TheRCEPistoimproveconditionsfoross-borderinvestmentintheregions,whichmaybenefitoverseasexpansionofcementandglassmanufacturerssuchasConchCement(00914HK)andXinyiGlass(00868HK)However,itmaybe「tocontrolcementimportsinChinafromVietnamwithnon-marketmethods,makinglocalcementcompaniesineastChinamoreexposedtocompetitionfromlow-pricedimportedclinkers.RCEP将改善区域内跨国投资的条件，这或将有利千泡螺水泥(00914HK)和信义玻璃(00868HK)等水泥及玻璞厂商的海外扩张。然而，中国自越南的水泥进口可能会更加难以通过非市场手段进行控制，令华东当地的水泥企业面临更多低价边口熟料的竞争口Thegradualeliminationoftariffsisbeneficialtotheexportofsolarmaterials(especiallysolarmodules).Inthelongrun,theRCEPagreementisexpectedtostimulateinvestmentinsolarenergyanddemandforsolarmaterialsintheregion.飞税的逐步取消有利千太阳能材料（特别是组件）的出口。长看，协议有望拉动区域内对太阳能的投资以及太阳能材料的需求。巠竺W玄它弇3』点al巠竺W玄它弇3』点al＿，带动电力消费衙求但同时也可能由于海外风电投资的增加而推升国零部件价格，对风电运营酕带来成本端的压力。＿TheestablishmentoftheRCEPwillhelpmitigatetheimpactofSino-UStradefriction.ThejoiningofJapanandSoutheawillincreasedemandforapparelsodomesticientedtextilesandapparelcompanieswillbenefitmostfromEvenfordomesticclothingcompanies,lowertariffscanalsoreduceprocurementcostsofsomeawmaterials,ortherelatedcostsoftransferringproductioncapacitytoSoutheastAsia,whichwillhelpimprovetheprofitabilityofclothingcompaniesinChina.1一P总0BSRCEP的建立有助美贸易摩擦的影响El的加入将提引对服装产品的需求因此国内的纺织服装企业将从中受益最多即销也可1一P总0BSConsume「-Food&Beverage消费－食品饮料Consumer-HouseholdProducts消费－日用品Consumer-Retailing消费－零售ElectricEquipment电力设备

Neutral中性Neutral中性Neutral中性Positive正面

TheRCEPwillhavealimitedimpactonthefood&ageSomeASEANcountriesethemainimportsourcesfm,sugard.,astmadeanytariffreductionsnoreliminatedcommitmentstoimportsoftheseproductsfromASEANcountriesandwillmaintaincurrenttariffrates.「dairyproducts,tariffson「dairyproductsfromAustraliaandNewZealandwillgraduallystarttoreduce10「s.TheRCEPwillnothavesignificantimpactonthedomesticdairyindustryinthemediumterm,butitispositivetodomesticdairycompaniestermsofoverseasinvestmentandcapacityexpansion.NqENURCEPNqENU玄它弇响但有利千改善国内乳企淘外投资环境及进行海外产能扩张ThedirectimpactfromtheRCEPonthehouseholdproductsindustrywillnotbesosignificant.Withregardtothesupplyofimportedrawthereislittleroomformarginaltariffimprovement.Atpresent,helongrun,theRCEPwillofferahighly-integratedbusinesswhichisveryconducivetotheglobalexpansionofChina'sconsumerstaplesgiants.Forinstance,Vinda(03331HK)establisheditsSoutheastAsiaregionalheadquartersinMalaysiain2019,whileHengan(01044HK)enteredtheSoutheastAsianmarketin1H2020.Chineseconsumerbrandsarekickingofftheglobalizationprocess.WebelievethattheRCEPmaynotonlypromotethetadeofminalhouseholdproductswithintheregion,butalsofacilitatemulti-nationalproductionandsales,whichwouldenableChina'sbrandstofollowtheexpansionpathofglobalFMCGgiants(suchasKao,Unicharm,andP&G)andtoproducenewgrowthdrivers.玄它弇巠竺Wal巠竺Wal＿3』点但从长远来看RCEP将提供一体化的营商环境十分有利于我国日用品品牌实现全球化扩张口维达(03331HK)2019年在马来西亚设立东南亚区域总部而恒安(01044HK)则在2020。中国消费品牌的全球化进程正在拉开序幕。我们相信RCEP一步促进区域内的终端产品贸易，也将有利千我国日用消费品厂商进行跨国生P&G＿3』点Nomate「ialimpactonretailenterprises.TheRCEPmaybenefithomeappliancescompanieswhichhaveexportsbusiness.对零售企业没有明显影响RCEP利好拥有出口业务的家电公司。Thegradualeliminationoftariffsisbeneficialtotheexportof「.negrun,etexpectedtostimulateinvestmentinenergyinfrastructureanddemandfor「generationequipmentintheregion1一P总0BS电1一P总0BSe基建Internet互联网Machinery机械Petrochemicals石化

Positive正面Positive正面Positive正面Positive正面

IncreaseinmanufacturinginvestmentandtradingvolumewillstimulatetuctureinvestmentontransportationandtelecommunicationInadditionreductioninimport/exporttaxwillincreaseprofitabilityofinfrastructureengineeringcontractorswhichhaveheavyequipmentuseneeds.ChinaRailwayGroup(00390HK),ChinaRailwaytuction(01186HK),ChinaCommunicationtuctionCompany(01800HK)andChinaCRSC(03969HK)arethemainNqENU制造业投资和贸易耻的增加将刺激在能源、交通及电信方面的基扯使用i设施承包硕的盈利能力中国铁(00390HKNqENUTheRCEPwillintroducealowe「tariffbetweenthe15countriesintheAsia-Pacificregion,thereforethisagreementcouldbethecatalysttoacceleratethedevelopmentofcross-bordere-commerce.Alibaba-SW(09988HK)andJD-SW(09618HK)willbebeneficiariesastheyhaveinvestedine-commerceenterprisesinthosecountriesorhaveoperatedcross-bordere-commerceontheirown.RCEP将在亚太地区的15个家之间引入较低的税，因此。阿里巴巴-SW9988HK)-SW9618HK)者之一，因为它们已经在这些国家的电商企业中进行投资已经营了其跨境电商TheRCEPistoboostexportsofplasticectionmolding玄它弇almachines(PIMM)andmajordownstreamproductssuchashomeappliances,consumerelectronicsandautoparts,whichwillbenefitPIMMmanufacturerssuchasHaitianInternational(01882HK).CIMCEnric(03899HK)isexpectedtobenefitfromincreaseddemandforcleanenergyequipmentandengineeringprojectsintheregion.TechtronicIndustries(00669HK)mayexploremoregrowthopportunitiesintheAsia-Pacificregionoutsideits仆ional「ketsin玄它弇al＿巠竺W3』点RCEP电零部件等工要下(01882HK)等注塑机厂(03899HK)将受惠千区域内清洁能源装备和工程项目的衙求提升创科实业(00669美传统市＿巠竺W3』点TheRECPtradeagreementcanpotentiallystimulatecapitalinvestmentinChina'spetrochemicalindustryintheun,sinceitcanfacilitateexportsforChina'spetrochemicalsproductsandiousteamproducts,includingtextilesandThistrendwillbenefitSinopecEngineering(02386HK).1一P总0BS由于RECP的签署有利于中国石化产品以及下游纺织品、玩具等产品的出口，1一P总0BSPorts港口Property房地广ShippingandLogistics航运及物流资科因丞君安困你。MarketViews市场观点

Positive正面Neutral中性Positive正面

WebelievethatthesigningoftheRCEPwillsteadilypromotethedevelopmentofa-regionaltradeinAsiathusactivelybenefitingthroughputgrowthintheegion.WeexpectthattheenhancedtraderelationshipbetweenChinaandASEANsupportedbytheeementwillcontinuetoincreaseportthroughputintheBeibuGulfegion;StrengtheningtradebetweenChina,JapanandSouthKorea,whichwillboostthroughputgrowthinBohaiRimandYangtzeRiverDelia.Atthesametime,theintentionintheagreementformoreconveniencecustomsclearanceforcold-chaintransportationcommoditiesisexpectedtoimprovereefercontainervolumeandoptimizeportcontainerstructureinthefuture.WebelievethatthiswillcontinuetodrivethroughputgrowthforChinaMerchantsPort(00144HK)andCOSCOShippingports(01199HK)inAsia.NqENURCEP，因而对区域内吞吐量的增长有着积极作用我们预计协议支待下中国与东盟的贸易加强将继续抬升北部湾区域港口吞吐量；中韩贸易的加强将拉动环渤泡及长三。同时，协议下对千冷链运输商品通关便利性的要求预计将在未来提升冷藏箱并优化港口箱址结构NqENULittledirectimpactonChina'spropertysector,givenitsdomesticdemand-drivennature.由千行业主要受国内需求推