国际投行报告-全球消费品行业-全球消费类商品：供管理层参考的900个问题

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EquityResearch

8June2022

GlobalConsumerStaples

INDUSTRYUPDATE

EuropeanConsumerStaples

NEUTRAL

Unchanged

EuropeanLuxuryGoods

POSITIVE

Unchanged

U.S.CHPC&Beverages

NEUTRAL

Unchanged

U.S.Food

NEUTRAL

Unchanged

~900questionsformanagement

Inthisreport,wepublishourlatestquestionsforEuropeanandUSConsumerStaples

andLuxuryGoodsmanagementteamsattheendoftheQ1reportingseasonand

aheadofupcomingindustryandbrokerconferences.Asinteractionswithcompanies

stepupoverthecomingweeks,wetaketheopportunitytosetoutourkeyquestions.

Asusualwehavegroupedtheminthesameformat,15questionsforeachcompany

splitbetween–strategic,operationalandfinancialquestions.Foreachofthe58

companiesweinclude,thequestionsarepresentedinthesameformatforeaseof

use.Pleaserefertothecontentsforthecompaniesthatyouareinterestedin.

Comparedtoourpreviouspublicationsthistimewehavealsoincludedquestionsfor

allourLuxuryGoodscoverageplusquestionsforDSM,Novozymes,Givaudanand

Symrise.Ifyouwouldlikeustoaddadditionalcompanies,pleasedogetintouch.

EuropeanConsumerStaples

WarrenAckerman

+44(0)2031341903

warren.ackerman@Barclays,UK

LaurenceWhyatt

+44(0)2077735324laurence.whyatt@Barclays,UK

IainSimpson

+44(0)2077733616

iain.simpson@Barclays,UK

GauravJain

+44(0)2035552501gaurav2.jain@Barclays,UK

U.S.Food

AndrewLazar

+12125264668

andrew.lazar@BCI,US

U.S.CHPC&Beverages

LaurenR.Lieberman

+12125263112

lauren.lieberman@BCI,US

EuropeanLuxuryGoods

CaroleMadjo

+44(0)2031343168carole.madjo@Barclays,UK

Forfurtherdetailonthesectorsandstocks,belowarethelinkstotherecent

publicationsandsubsectorinitiationreportsacrossBeverages,Food,Food

Ingredients,HPC,Luxury,CannabisandGlobalTobacco.

Keysectorpublications:

EuropeanStaples-TheHealthyConsumerIainSimpson–31stMay22

GlobalConsumerStaples-Talktomeaboutelasticities26thMay22

EuropeanStaples–EUStaplesaccountingqualityrevisited22April22

GlobalConsumerStaples:CAGNY'22:GettingBacktoBusiness28Feb22

SubsectorInitiationReports:

EuropeanConsumerStaples-Fishingforsustainablereturns27Sep21

EuropeanLuxuryGoods:Buyingtime21Sep21

GlobalConsumerIngredients:Ingredientsforoutperformance

,18Nov

20

EuropeanBeverages:Identifyingglobalpremiumgrowth

,1Apr

19

EuropeanFoodProducers:Disruptingthedisrupters

,9Apr

19

EuropeanHPC:Thesearchforsustainablegrowth

,25Mar

19

Tobacco:Acceleratingdisruption,uncertainregulation

,23May

19

GlobalCannabis:SlowBurnTowardLegalization

,3Apr

19

BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe

firmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investors

shouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Thisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbased

outsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.

PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE67.

8June20222

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

CONTENTS

GLOBALBEVERAGES 4

ABI(OW,PTEUR84) 5

Brown-Forman(EW,PT$67) 6

Carlsberg(OW,PTDKK1,023) 7

Diageo(OW,PT4,700p) 8

Heineken(UW,PTEUR90) 9

MolsonCoors(EW,PT$52) 10

Pernod-Ricard(OW,PTEUR260) 11

TheCoca-ColaCompany(OW,PT$74) 12

GLOBALFOOD,FOODINGREDIENTS 13

AAK(UW,PTSEK176) 14

ABF(OW,PT2,300p) 15

BarryCallebaut(OW,PTCHF2630) 16

CampbellSoup(UW,PT$43) 17

ChrHansen(EW,PTDKK550) 18

Corbion(EW,PTEUR38) 19

DSM(OW,PTEUR188) 20

Danone(OW,PTEUR70) 21

Glanbia(OW,PTEUR16.5) 22

GeneralMills(EW,PT$68) 23

Givaudan(UW,PTCHF3,700) 24

Kerry(OW,PTEUR137) 25

Lindt(UW,PTCHF1,00,000) 26

McCormick(EW,PT$100) 27

MondelezInternational(OW,PT$76) 28

Nestlé(OW,PTCHF135) 29

Novozymes(OW,PTDKK530) 30

Suedzucker(EW,PTEUR12.5) 31

Symrise(EW,PTEUR113) 32

NomadFoods(OW,PT$24) 33

Tate&Lyle(OW,PT940p) 34

TheKraftHeinzCompany(EW,PT$46) 35

Unilever(EW,PT4000p) 36

GLOBALHPC 37

Beiersdorf(OW,PTEUR115) 38

Church&Dwight(UW,TP$77) 39

CloroxCompany(UW,PT$115) 40

Colgate-Palmolive(EW,PT$71) 41

Essity(EW,PTSEK268) 42

InternationalFlavors&Fragrances(UW,PT$115) 43

Henkel(EW,PTEUR64) 44

Kimberly-ClarkCorp.(EW,PT$124) 45

8June20223

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

L’Oréal(OW,PTEUR421) 46

ReckittBenckiser(OW,PT9,300p) 47

Procter&Gamble(OW,PT$157) 48

TheEstéeLauderCompanies(OW,PT$306) 49

GLOBALTOBACCO 50

Altria(EW,PT$53) 51

BritishAmericanTobacco(OW,PT4200p) 52

PhilipMorrisInternational(OW,PT$110) 53

SwedishMatch(OW,PTSEK125) 54

ImperialBrands(OW,PT2300p) 55

EUROPEANLUXURY 56

Burberry(EW,PTGBP20.7) 57

Hermes(EW,PTEUR1,340) 58

Kering(OW,PTEUR795) 59

LVMH(OW,PTEUR830) 60

Moncler(OW,PTEUR60) 61

Prada(OW,PTHKD55) 62

Richemont(OW,PTCHF142) 63

SalvatoreFerragamo(UW,PTEUR15.0) 64

Swatch(OW,PTCHF385) 65

Tod's(UW,PTEUR40) 66

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

8June20224

GLOBALBEVERAGES

EUBeverages

LaurenceWhyatt

+44(0)2077735324

laurence.whyatt@Barclays,UK

USBeverages

LaurenR.Lieberman

+12125263112

lauren.lieberman@BCI,US

8June20225

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

ABI(OW,PTEUR84)

ABIBB/ABI.BR

StockRating

OVERWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

EUR84.00

Price(06-Jun-2022)

EUR52.57

PotentialUpside/Downside

+59.8%

Strategic

1.ABIhasbecomemuchmoreconstructiveonpricinginrecentyears.Againstastronginflationarybackdrop,howdoesthecompanybalanceaffordabilitywithprotectingprofitability?Arethereanymarketsinwhichpricingisparticularlydifficult?

2.ABI’sdigitalroll-outhasclearlysteppedupinthelast18-24months,throughBEESandZedelivery.Whatisthecompany’slong-termvisionfordigitalacrossitswidermarketsandwhatisthetimelinearoundthisexpansion?

3.HowimportantisM&AtoABI’sfuturestrategy?Withfeweravailabletargetsinbeer,wouldyouconsiderexpandingintoadjacentcategoriessuchassoftdrinksorspirits?

4.HeinekenappearstobemoreaggressiveinanumberofLatAmmarkets(Brazil,Colombia,Ecuador).Howhaveyouchangedyourbusinesstocounterthisthreat?

5.Whatdoyouthinkwillbethelong-termeffectsofCovid-19ontheglobalbeermarket?IfanothertradewareruptedwithChina,howwouldthatimpactyourpositioninginthatmarket?

Operational

6.HasCovid-19highlightedanysupplychainissuesinyournetwork?Willyoumakeanylong-termchanges?

7.Covid-19hascausedSKUrationalisation.Howhasthisimpactedyourrelationshipwithlargeretailers?

8.WillthemovetowardsBeyondBeerrequireanymaterialchangesinyourproductioncapabilities?

9.Withtheworldfocusingmoreonreusableandrecyclablematerials,howareyouchangingyourproductionmethodsandmaterials?

10.WhatarethekeylearningsfromSABMillerthathavebeenimplementedinABI’sbusiness?

Financial

11.Debtremainsveryhighonarelativeandabsolutebasis.Youhavesoldstakesinsubsidiaries,cutthedividendtwice,andtakensynergiesandcostsavings.Whatfurtherstepscanbetakentoreducethedebtpile?Whendoyouexpecttohityour2.0xtarget?

12.Marginshavecomedownsignificantlyinmanypartsofthebusiness(notablyBrazil,SouthKoreaandSouthAfrica).HowmuchofthisisduetoCovid-19andhowmuchisotherfactors?

13.HowdoyouhedgeyourexposuretorawmaterialandFXfluctuations?

14.Isthepaymentofadividendimportanttoyou?

15.Doyouanticipateanymaterialchangesinmarketingspendrequirements?

8June20226

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

BF/B/BFb

StockRating

EQUALWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

USD67.00

Price(06-Jun-2022)

USD66.40

PotentialUpside/Downside

+0.9%

Brown-Forman(EW,PT$67)

Strategic

1.Wheredoyoustandonbuildoutofinternationalemergingbrandssupport?

2.Thetequilacategory,whilestillgrowingatahealthyclip,alsoseesacontinuedlongtailofnewentrants.How(ifatall)hasyourstrategytobestcompeteinthecategoryevolved?Doyoustillfeelcomfortablewiththecurrentportfolio?

3.Whatcanyoutellusabouthowpremiumspiritshaveperformedinpriorconsumerrecessions?HowistheBrownFormanportfoliodifferenttodaythaninthe08/09period?

4.You’vecharacterisedyourselfasapricingleader–ifthatisstillthecase,doyouremaincomfortablewiththatapproachinthecurrentbackdropandthetarget+LSDrun-rate?

5.HowhaveyoubeenmanagingdistributorrelationshipsovertheOOSchallenges?Hasthisputpressureonshelfspace?

Operational

6.Thinkingoutsideofstraightlistpricing,whataresomeopportunitiesyou’vebeenexploringlatelywithpacksize?

7.Wheredoestheon-premiserecoverystandtodayandhowdoyouintendtosustaintherecentmarketsharegainsyou’vebuiltinthechannelacrossselectmarkets?

8.Alotofsignspointingtohealthytravellevelsthissummer(atleastintheUSandwesternEurope).Whatareyourexpectationsfortravelretailthissummer?

9.Isthereanyupdateyoucanprovideoninventoryorsupplyconstraintprogress?DidtherecentchallengespromptyoutoapproachFY23planningdifferentlyinanyway?

10.WithRTDcocktailscontinuingtogainprominence(andSKUs),whatisyourlatestviewonthenetbenefitorthreatthissegmentmayposetomoretraditionalcocktailconsumptionbehaviour?

Financial

11.Giventhestrainedconditionsoftheglobalgrainmarket,whatisyourmedium-termviewonavailabilityofsupplyandthecostoutlook?

12.SubsequenttotheF3QprintyouformallysuspendedcommercialoperationsinRussia.Whataretheimplicationsofthatdecisionontheroute-to-marketteamyouhadbeenexpandinginrecentmonths?Anycoststokeepinmindifyou’llbeunwindingthat?

13.WiththeUS&UKreinstatingfreetradeeffective6/1/22,canyouremindusoftheimpacttiedtowhathadbeenlingeringUKtariffs,andhowmuchtimedoyouexpectitwilltaketoworkthroughexistinginventoryinthatmarket?

14.You’vediscussedtop-linegrowthoutpacingbrandspendinginthecomingquartersbutwhatistherightwaytothinkaboutthatdynamiclonger-term?

15.Giventhehealthybalancesheetandcashflowprofile(plusexecutionofaspecialdividendearlierinFY22)whatisyourappetiteforpotentialincrementalcashreturnstoshareholdersgoingforward?

8June20227

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

CARLBDC/CARLb.CO

StockRating

OVERWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

DKK1023.00

Price(07-Jun-2022)

DKK860.20

PotentialUpside/Downside

+18.9%

Carlsberg(OW,PTDKK1,023)

Strategic

1.Whatisthecompany’sstrategyaroundexpandingintoitsincremental35WuSucities?DoyouexpectthatrollingoutyourinternationalbrandsontopoftheWuSucitieswillhelpaccelerategrowthintotheregionsvsthecompany’susualapproachofexpandingintoc.5BigCitieseachyear?

2.Carlsberghasannouncedit’sintheprocessofsellingitsRussiaoperations.Couldyouprovideanupdateonthestateofthesaleandwhatisthelevelofinterestfortheassetssofar?

3.WhathasdriventhesuccessoftheCraftandSpecialtyportfolioinEurope?Witharecessionlooming,whatisthepotentialforpremium-pricedproductsinthenearterm?

4.WhatisthepotentialforDraughtmasteracrossyourportfolio?Howdoestheinnovationaffectyourrelationshipwithyourcustomers?

5.ItappearsthatCovid-19hasweakeneddemandforlow-andno-alcoholproducts.Whatisthepotentialforthecategory?

Operational

6.Whatadditionalbrewingcapabilitiesarerequiredforyourlow/noportfolio,alongwiththegrowthCraft&Specialtyportfolio?

7.Yourinnovationshavelargelycentredaroundyouron-premisecustomers.WouldyouconsidermoreB2Cinitiatives?

8.HowdoestheMarston’srelationshipintheUKchangeyourdistribution?

9.HowwillyouaddresstheissuesaroundpotentiallycompetingwithyourlistedChinesesubsidiary?

10.Whathaveyoulearnedaboutdealingwithsociallydistantbars/pubsfromyourexperienceinSweden?

Financial

11.HowlongcanweexpectDDgrowthinChina?Istherealevelatwhichyouwilldialdowntheinvestmentinthebusinessandrunitforprofit?

12.Doyouseeanylong-termbenefitfromRussia’sexitasthebreweryfootprintinRussiahadlowermargins?

13.MarginshaveexpandedrapidlyinWesternEurope.Howmuchfurthercantheygo?

14.YourinitialcostsavingsexpectationsinFundingtheJourneyweremateriallyexceeded.Howdoyouknowyouhaven’tcuttoodeep?

15.WehavebeendiscussingtheacquisitionofHABECOinVietnamformanyyearsnow.Williteverhappen?Whatistakingsolong?

8June20228

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

Diageo(OW,PT4,700p)

DGELN/DGE.L

StockRating

OVERWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

GBp4700

Price(07-Jun-2022)

GBp3656

PotentialUpside/Downside

+28.6%

Strategic

1.Withtheworldfacingapotentialrecession,howdoyouforeseetheappetiteforpremiumspiritschanging?

2.TheUKpresshaslongtalkedaboutthepotentialforatradedealwithIndia,whichwouldincludeScotch.WithcurrentIndiantariffsonimportedalcoholat150%,whatcouldbethepotentialimpactonIndianScotchdemandifatradedealwasreached?HowwouldincreasedIndiandemandimpactglobalpricesgivensupplyconstraints?

3.WhatimpactdoyouseeonIndiamarginsposttheUSLsaleof32'popularsegment'brandsannouncedrecently?

4.DoesalackofcognachinderyourchancesinChina?WhatbenefitdoyougetfromaminoritystakeinMoet-Hennessy?

5.Whatscopedoyouseeforgrowthinyourscotchportfolioinbothvolumeandvalueterms?

Operational

6.Yourdrivetoasell-outmodelhasdrivenimprovedperformance,particularlyintheUS.Howmuchfurthercanthisdriveperformance?

7.HowisCatalystchangingyourA&Pallocation?Howmuchmorecanyouimplementdigitalchangesinyourbusiness?

8.Onlineisbecomingmoreandmoreimportantinspiritssales.Whatarethepotentialgrowthmarkets,andisitpossibletoreplicatethissuccessintheUSwiththethree-tiersystem?

9.HowdoyousplitoperationalactivitiesinChinawithMoet-Hennessy?

10.WithValerieChapoulaud-Floquetjoiningtheboardin2021,whatexperiencefromRemyCointreauwouldyoumostliketounderstand?

Financial

11.GiventhestrengthofDiageo’sUStequilaportfolio,whatlevelofgrowthissustainableintheUS?Howisagavepricingimpactingmarginmixastequilabecomesincrementallylarger?

12.Yourleverageiswithinyourstatedtargetrange.Willyoucontinuethepreviouslyannouncedsharebuy-backprogram?

13.WilliteverbepossibletoseematerialmarginimprovementinIndia?Whataretheprospectsforthecountry?

14.HowmuchwillM&Adrivegrowth?Arethereanyadjacentsectorswhereyouhavelimitedexposure(softdrinks,aperitifs)thatyouwouldliketogrow?IsyourUSbeerbusinessatscale?

15.HavetherisksofUStariffsgoneaway?Couldano-dealBrexitimpactyourabilitytotrade?Wouldyoupassonanynewlyimposedtariffstotheconsumer?

8June20229

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

Heineken(UW,PTEUR90)

HEIANA/HEIN.AS

StockRating

UNDERWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

EUR90.00

Price(06-Jun-2022)

EUR93.02

PotentialUpside/Downside

-3.2%

Strategic

1.Heineken’sDistellM&Aisexpectedtoclosebytheendof2022.Whatisthestrategicrationaleforthedeal?Withthewineandspiritsportfoliodeemedtobe“non-core”,whatisyourplanfortheassets?

2.Youhaveenteredanumberofkeymarketsinrecentyears.Arethereanyfurthermarketsinwhichyouseepotential,orinwhichyouwouldliketobulkup?

3.WhatisthepotentialoftheUSmarket?Heinekenhasstruggledthereinrecentyears.Doesthismarkethavepotentialtobegrowth-accretivetothebusiness?Wouldhavingalocalpartnerinthemarkethelp?

4.Areyouinvestingenoughinyourbrands?Doyouseethepotentialforfurthersponsorshiparrangements?Howdoyoudecidewhethertoinvestfurtherorincreasemargins?

5.HowdoyoumanagebeingbothglobalwithbrandHeineken,andlocalwithsmallerbrands?Howdoesthatworkinpractice?

Operational

6.HowhaveyouadaptedyourA&Pstrategywiththerapiddeclineinglobalspectator

events(e.g.ChampionsLeague,FormulaOne,etc)?

7.Haveyouseenanysignificantimpactsonthecompany’sBraziliandistributionnetworkfollowingtheexpiryoftheagreementwiththeCokebottlingnetwork?

8.HowdoestheJVworkwithCRSnowinChina?Howdoyousplittheresponsibilities?

9.WhatimpacthasCovid-19hadontheUKStarPubnetwork?Whatchangeshaveyoumadetofollowlocalregulations?

10.WhatroledoyourD2Cwebsites(e.g.Beerwulf)haveontheconsumernowthatmoreandmoreconsumersareshoppingonline?Istherethepotentialtorollouttoothergeographies?

Financial

11.FY23ECOGSinflationlookstoberunningatasimilarratetoFY22(i.e.mid-teens).Giventhisbackdrop,andasofteningglobalconsumer,doyouthinkyouwillbeabletotakesufficientpricingtomeetyourFY23E17%EBITmargintarget?

12.Whatdoyouconsiderasustainablerateoforganicsalesgrowthinthemediumterm?

13.Marginexpansionhasbeenweakinrecentyears.Howdoyouexplainthis?Whatisthepotentialformarginexpansion?Canyoumaintainmarginsinyourhigh-margincountries(e.g.VietnamandMexico)?

14.WhendoyouexpectChinatobeaccretivetoshareholderEPS?

15.WhatdoeslosingexclusivityinOxxoinMexicomeanformarginsinthatcountry?

8June202210

Barclays|GlobalConsumerStaples

TAP

StockRating

EQUALWEIGHT

IndustryView

NEUTRAL

PriceTarget

USD52.00

Price(06-Jun-2022)

USD54.06

PotentialUpside/Downside

-3.8%

MolsonCoors(EW,PT$52)

Strategic

1.Howdoyoufeelabouttheportfolio’spositioninginthecontextofpotentialtradedown?Anyhistoricalcontexttodrawfromonpastinstancesofastrainedconsumer?

2.TowhatdegreedoyouseetheconcurrentMillerLiteandCoorsLightstrengthassustainable?Whathavebeen/willbetheprimarydrivers?

3.TAPhasundergoneashiftinmindsetnowmorefocusedonrevenuegrowth,ratherthanvolumegrowth.Whathappenedacrosstheorganisationtoenablethischange?Havetherebeenchangestoincentivestructures?

4.You’vesteadilybeenbuildingoutyournon-alcoholicfootprint.Whathavebeenkeylearningstodateforcompetinginthissegment?

5.Howwouldyoucharacteriseyourstancetowardsincrementalpricing?Atahigherlevel,whatdoyouseeasthemostaccessiblesourcesofflextomoveprice/mixupordownincomingquarters?

Operational

6.Wheredoon-premiseactivitylevelsstandtoday?Whatareyourexpectationsforthissummer?

7.Havingnavigatedthemiscellaneoussupplyconstraintsoverthepast~1.5years,doyoufindyou’remanaginginventorylevelsortheplanningprocessanydifferentlynow?

8.Havetherebeenanyindicationstodateofweakeningconsumerhealthand/orashiftingconsumptionbehaviour?

9.IsthereanyupdateyoucanprovideonthestrikeneartheMontrealfacility?

10.HowareyoufeelingaboutSimplySpiked?Whatareyourthoughtsaboutitscompetitivepositioningvs.otherflavouredalcoholandanyriskofcannibalisationfromcurrentseltzerconsumers?

Financial

11.Whatisthecurrentoutlookongrainmarketsspecificallythatisembeddedintheguide?Whatdegreeofriskdoyouseelookingbeyondthisyearthere?

12.Howmuchvisibilityorcomfortisaffordedbyyourhedgesinplace?Howshouldwebethinkingaboutlatestcoverageinplacelookingintonextyear?

13.You’vebeensteadilyexecutingonyourde-leveraginggoals,withthecurrentguidetoreachsub-3xbytheendof2022.Whatarekeyconsiderationswhenthinkingthroughwhattheappropriatedebtlevelsshouldbelongertermforthisbusiness,particularlygiventhetransformation