4G技术发展现状与机会

4G技術發展現況與機會宋庭禎6March2009AgendaTheMobileEvolutionTowards4GTheITU’sPerspectiveTheSDO’sPerspectiveTechnologyEnablersplanthefutureinadvanceatSDOandIndustryAlliancesmeetingsWholeadtheMobileEvolutiontowards4G?IEEE802.16andWiMAXForumLTEandLSTIAlliancesHowtoBreakThroughTaiwanWiMAXEcosystemWhatis4G?ITU-Rs’PerspectiveAhighdegreeofcommonalityoffunctionalityworldwidewhileretainingtheflexibilitytosupportawiderageofservicesandapplicationsina.Capabilityofinter-workingwithotherradioaccesssystems.CapabilityofserviceswithinIMTandwithfixednetworks.Enhancedpeakdatarates100Mbpsforhighand1GbpsforlowmobilitySource:ITU-RM.1645(IMTVision2003)ChinaJapanKoreaUKEuropeJapanUSAmainlyUSA資料來源：本研究整理，ITRI/ICL2009年2月StandardDevelopmentOrganizationsWhatis4G?ITU-Rs’PerspectiveVisionRecM.1645RadioFramework&CoreSpecificationsMarket/ServicesviewTechnologyviewSpectrumviewNamePrinciplesCPMTextWRC-07Services&CircularLetterforprocessProposals,Evaluation,&ConsensusBuilding2002-20032005-20072006-20082008-2010SettingtheStageforFutureVision,Spectrum,andTechnologyViewsDefiningtheTechnology2000-2003ProceedingToward4G(IMT-ADVANCED)2010-2012Q229-1/8NowIM-EVALandIMT-TechDocumentSource:ITU-RM.1645(IMTVision2003)Whatis4G?SDOs’Perspective2001-20052006HSDPAPhaseI1.8M/3.6MbpsHSDPAPhaseII7.2/14.4MbpsHSUPA2M/5.76MbpsLTE(FDD)In20MHz(Rel.8)DLPDR:326MpsULPDR:86kpsWCDMAR99/R4384kbps3GPPEvolution200720082009HSPA+DL>40MbpsUL>10Mbps1xEV-DORev.0DL:2.4MbpsUL:153.6kbpsDORev.B（MCDO）DL：46.5MbpsUL:27Mbps1xEV-D0Rev.ADL:3.1MbpsUL:1.8MbpsCDMA1X153kbps20102011IEEE802.16e70MbpsWiMAXEvolutionIEEE802.16d20MbpsIMTAdvancedTechnologyLTE-Advanced(Rel.9)IEEE802.16mDL:100MbpsUL:50MbpsSource:本計畫整理,4G研討會Dec.20083GPP2EvolutionTD-SCDMAEvolutionR2CertificationR1.5

CertificationR1.0/Wave2

CertificationLTETDDLTE-AdvancedDL:1GbpsUL:150Mbps(Rel.10)TechnologyEnablersplanthefuture

inadvanceatSDOandIndustryAlliancesmeetingsWidebandtowardsMobilityWiMAXCampMobileEvolutionisTowardsConvergenceLTECampMobiletowardsWidebandSource:本計畫整理,MWCMarch2009IMT-Advanced

GOALSFlexiblespectrumutilizationAllIPnetworkBroadbandservicesLowCAPEXandOPEX垂直產業異業結盟技術整合研發產銷Source:MIC,產銷分享會2007SamsungLTEProduct

RoadmapSource:本計畫整理,MWCMarch2009LSTILTERel9StandardDevelopment200920102011eNBTerminalRAN2,3,4Mar.09RAN5June09Release9(Dec09)SAEStage3Mar09Release9(Dec09)POC(Jan08~March09)IODT(Jan09~Oct09)IOT(Nov09~Mar10)FCT(Oct09~June10)FieldTrialSystemPre-StandardforLSTIDec082.6GHz/700MHz20MHzBW2x2/4x2MIMO,SONCommercialSystemCommercialHW/SWready2.6GHz/700MHz1.4~20MHzBW2x2/4x2MIMO,SONHotZone20MHzBW2x2/4x4MIMO,SONDataCardPrototypeCommercialHandset從SamsungLTE產品Roadmap來看，2009年將推出DataCard，2010年起推出LTE手機。小結資料來源：TCSong研究整理，ITRI/ICL2009年2月FromITU-RPerspectives:IMT-AdvancedSpectrumwasfinalizedatWRC07.IMT-AdvancedRadioAccessTechnologyisnowunder-progresswithSDOs.SpecificationRecommendationwillbeexpectedbyyear2011.FromSDO’sPerspective:LTE-AdvancedandWiMAX16m(notRel.2)willbesubmittedandevaluatedbymidof2010.

FromAlliancesPerspective:

WiMAXRel.2willonlybereadyforcommercialphaseafter2012.LTEandLTE-AdvancedIndustrialEvaluationGroup(LSTI)isexpectedtohaveFriendlyTrialreadybyyear2010.

LTE-Advanced(Rel.10)willbereleasedayearlater.Operatorsshouldratherwaittoavoiddoubleinvestment.FromGlobalOperator’sPerspectives:Timingoftheroll-outanduptakeof4Gapplicationandservicesshouldfollow:MobileComputing,Mobile(2.0)ServicesandMobileCEDevicesanddataBusinessmodeltobesuitableforHighthroughputatMobile.AgendaTheMobileEvolutionTowards4GTheRegulatoryDevelopmentTechnologyEnablersplanthefutureinadvanceatSDOandIndustryAlliancesmeetingsWholeadtheMobileEvolutiontowards4G?IEEE802.16andWiMAXForumLTEandLSTIAlliancesHowtoBreakThroughTaiwanWiMAXEcosystemIEEE802.16m技術開發現況CompanyNameNo#58#48#58#48SamsungElectronics146279.60%10.11%IntelCorp.239168.14%5.99%HuaweiTechnologies333106.89%3.75%LG42795.64%3.37%ETRI527175.64%6.37%Motorola820194.18%7.12%ITRI62354.80%1.87%Nokia72174.38%2.62%FujitsuLaboratories917123.55%4.49%NortelNetworks1115133.13%4.87%ZTE101653.34%1.87%MTK1215-3.13%III131052.09%1.87%MitsubishiElectric14871.67%2.62%NextWave159-1.88%AlcatelLucent166-1.25%Qualcomm1840.84%Marvel194-0.84%Ericsson1751.04%DoCoMo20320.63%0.75%TotalVotingMembers479362100%100%據了解，除了Intel及Samsung將會進行IEEE802.16mSelfEvaluation以外，

目前尚未有公司公佈16mTrial的合作，是否大多公司還處於觀望姿態?資料來源：TCSong研究整理，ITRI/ICL2009年2月WiMAXForumWiMAXForum在2001年由英特爾、諾基亞與Alvarion等創建。全球目前共有530家會員台灣目前有39家會員廠商，包含一個董事會員、以及15個主要會員。WiMAXForum目前有17個董事會成員近年來台灣在推動WiMAX產業的發展不遺餘力，受到全球WiMAX產業的高度肯定。在MWC2009IntelBooth公佈WiMAX佈建於135國家，可服務430M人資料來源：WiMAXTaipeiOffice,本研究整理，ITRI/ICL2009年2月3GPPLTEDevelopmentLTE獲NGMN及多家國際電信業者宣布採用後聲勢急漲電信業者自2009年起將陸續開始透過LSTI測試、甚至商用化佈建。Resource:ATISLTEConference,本研究整理，ITRI/ICL2009年2月GSMAssociation4billionconnectionsworldwide219countriesandterritories750mobileoperatorsLSTIAlliances3GPP之組織較完整及嚴謹，目前已由以下公司成立IMT-AdvancedEvaluationGroup並在LSTI做FieldTrial。

WhereisTaiwan!!!全球WiMAX及LTE電信業者分佈圖NorthAmericaLTEVerizonWireless(4Q09)AT&TMobility(4Q09)T-Mobile(4Q12)BellCanada&TelusMetroPCSWiMAX16eClearWire(469,000subs.Sep08)BrazilEuropeLTEVodafone(German4Q11,Britain4Q12)Orange(Britain4Q11)T-Mobile(German4Q11)TelecomItalia(4Q10)TeliaSonera(4Q10)WiMAX16eRussiaAsiaLTE中國移動(China)中國電信(China)NTTDoCoMo(Japan4Q10)KDDI(Japan4Q10)SoftbankMobile(Japan

4Q12)SKTelecom(Korea)KTF(Korea)WiMAX16eUQCommunication(Japan)KT(Korea)M-TaiwanProgram(Taiwan)IndiaWiMAXProgram(India)註:畫底線為CDMA運營商，括號內為預計開通LTE服務時間)Source:Digitimes2009/1整理:ITRI2009/03但全球經濟狀況不佳，電信業者能否順利募集大規模佈建LTE資金，現況BusinessModel是否適合MobileBroadband發展，仍有相當變數。LTE電信業者已公佈，將延遲佈建進度至少3~5年國際知名設備及系統整合大廠之動向

IMT-AdvancedWidebandtowardsMobilityWiMAXCampAndotherWiMAXForumMembersMobiletowardsWidebandSource:本計畫整理,MWCMarch2009LTECampAgendaTheMobileEvolutionTowards4GTheRegulatoryDevelopmentTechnologyEnablersplanthefutureinadvanceatSDOandIndustryAlliancesmeetingsWholeadtheMobileEvolutiontowards4G?IEEE802.16andWiMAXForumLTEandLSTIAlliancesHowtoBreakThroughM-TaiwanProgramM-TaiwanProgram&

TaiwanWiMAXEcosy