2017年服装行业消费升级深度分析报告

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 1 7 8 9 1一、服装需求分化：真的“消费升级”和不一定的“消费降级”202,8762,758624.21%3.06%2.00%0%2016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q1%4703.30%0.00%2016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q1%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%600500400300200100000003,2813,2548.06%6%.70%20%%%-%0-10%-15%-20%20122013201420152016FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017群3DKNYMIUMIU强4轻521.9160%140%120%100%7%7%%%%%%%4%4%%92%92%%%%86%0%5010%1.23%%84%82%%微信%优酷/土豆微博0%%侈60040203.33%11.63%11.11%868072687.50%605.88%36302623202962009201020112012201320148%%4%%%中MichaelKors、TonyBurch、MCM、Kate7CAGR为84.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%0.5%YoY(%)26.9%27.0%8%26.5%26.5%8%5.9%72120%0%220020152016E2017E2018E2019占总体服装市场比例(%)3.853.85%3.47%3.10%2.77%2.48%2.24%2.04%6%9%5%0.0%201120122013201420152016E2017E2018E2019E2020E9050403020044.941.9201220132014201520165%0%-5%-10%-15%和尾0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%合0芽28.40%2.3325.58%0828.40%2.3325.58%0812.02%10.30%570.0050000.505%0%%%%3232.25%28.50%27.08%21.75%0.0020122013201420152012201320142015201650016/12/12017/1/12017/2/12017/3/12017/4/1.11%11.33%9.33%7.50%2015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q1%2016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q1响 购以115.11%83.26%%98.25%发款23%24%,03.503.054.65%87%%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%2016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q1%25%20%%%0FYFYFYFY2016FY201740.7042.86%46.36%0FY2013FY2014FY5FY2016机也图40：我国网红产业发展潜力巨大(单位：亿元)38.4%38.4%9.3%9.3%3.6%4%二、国内企业新态：乘风扬帆，新翼再展IRO以9876543210332.77%.7520.50%5.094.22201320142015201635%30%20%5%%国ICICLEJNBYHOME魂程测