HSBC-中国汽车芯片观察-2022-08-零部件

By:FrankHe(S1700517120005)DisruptiveBy:FrankHe(S1700517120005)EquityResearchReportChinaThematicresearchJuly2022 tothetopTheautomotivesemiconductorindustryisatatippingpointasdemandsurges,drivenbysmartercarsehiclesWeprovidearoadmaptokeyproductsthatoffergrowthpotentialInaseparatereport,wetakeanin-depthlookatIngenic,Wingtech,Starpower,WillSemiandGigaDevice,edBuyeoDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.eTechnologyEquitiesJulyWhyreadthisreport?令Theautomotivesemiconductorindustryisatatippingpointasdemandsurgesdrivenbysmartercarsandelectricvehicles(EVs)令WeprovidearoadmaptokeyproductsthatoffergrowthpotentialandsubstantiallocalisationopportunitiesforChinesesuppliersInaseparatereportwetakeanindepthlookatIngenic,Wingtech,StarpowerWillSemiandGigaDeviceallratedBuyFrankHe*(S1700517120005)HeadofA-shareTechnologyHardwareResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedfrank.fang.he@+862160813809*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsedaheadforsemiconductorsincarsrsaveverermsofermsofelectronicsAdeepdiveintoareasthatshowthemostpotentialgrowthdtscindustrytaseparatereportAutomotivesemiconductorindustryThebestpositionedstockspublishedtoday11July2022,weprovideanin-depthlookat:IngenicCHRMB97.15,Buy):OneofthefewChinesevendorswithsizeableexposuretoautogradememoryandanalogintegratedcircuit(IC)products.ItalsohasgrowingR&Dstrengthinotherautochipareas.Wingtech(600745CH,RMB77.49,Buy):ThecompanyisaglobalautomotivechipsupplierviathesubsidiaryNexperia)thatisbenefitingfromthevehicleelectrificationanddigitalisationtrendsDiversificationtonon-smartphoneproductsissettodrivelong-termgrowth,inourview.Starpower03290CH,RMB384.70,Buy),WillSemi(603501CH,RMB163.18,Buy)andGigaDevice3986CH,RMB131.28,Buy),whichwebelievearekeybeneficiariesofthevehicleelectrificationtrend.Wealsoidentifyotherlocalisationopportunities.2Climateconsiderations57ShiftingawayfromoiltoClimateconsiderations57Shiftingawayfromoiltoelectricitysturntorenewableenergytocutcarbonemissions58Highercosts,fewerworkers59Disclosureappendix61Disclaimer64Whyreadthisreport?1Movingupagear3ThreeCs:China,chips,cars4ewdriversofthesemiconductorindustry4KeyareaswhereChinacangrow5Localisationopportunities6NewautoE/Earchitecture8ctureevolutiontoreshapetheautosector8Keyfocusareas11utonomousdrivingprocessors11SoCforsmartcockpitprocessors18ECUandmicrocontroller(MCU)21Memoryandstorage26PowersemiconductorsSiC1SiCsupplychainanalysis37Sensors–imagesensors40Sensors–LiDAR43In-vehiclenetworking(IVN)IC46Passivecomponents48Stringentqualificationprocessisahighentrybarrier50Valuechainleadersandlocalisationopportunities52omotivesemiconductormakers52Otherlocalisationopportunities5365eTechnologyEquitiesJuly65emonchipemonchipforautonomousartcockpitprocessorsaweidedeSiCsxperiaxperianalogectivity‘22e‘25e‘26e‘21‘27e‘24e‘22e‘25e‘26e‘21‘27e‘24e‘23e‘28esenssensnetworksnomousdrivingernetutingransmissionicationsSourceCompanydataNXPQianzhanHSBCQianhaiSecuritieso8e4eTechnologyEquitiesJulyThreeCs:China,chips,cars令WefocusonareaswhereChina’schipmakershaveopportunitieswarearchitectureandmaterialsarechangingthelandscapeTheaveragesiliconcontentvaluepervehicleissettorisefromcUSD530in2021tooverUSD1,000in2028e…nditbeoverUSDforahigh-endsmartEVethenewdriversofthesemiconductorindustryWebelievetheautomobileindustrywilljoinsmartphonesandPCsasoneofthekeygrowthdriversofthesemiconductorindustryinthecomingdecades,alongwithhigh-performancecomputingartificialintelligenceAI),andtheInternetofThings(IoT).Thereasonissimple.Everythingfromadvancedlevelsofautonomousdrivingtoin-vehicleinfotainmentand,ofcourse,theelectricmotorsneedincreasinglysophisticatedsemiconductors.Theaveragenumberofsemiconductorsincarshasalreadydoubledoverthepastdecadeandweexpectthatnumbertoaccelerateinthecomingyears.Twoofthebiggestareasseeinggrowthincontentvalue,intermsofelectronics,areelectricvehicles(xEV‒agenerictermforEVs,suchashybridelectricvehicles(HEVs),PHEVandfuel-cellelectricvehicles)andadvanceddriver-assistancesystems(ADASs).WeexpecttheaveragesiliconcontentvaluepervehicletodoublefromcUSD530in2021tooverUSD1,000in2028e;forahigh-endsmartEV,itcouldbeoverUSD3,000.Allthisis,ofcourse,greatnewsforChina,whichhastheworld’slargestautomobilemarketintermsofannualcarsales,includingEVvehicles,whichhaveahighercontentvalueintermsofelectronics.itAutomotivesemiconductormarketsizeandpervehiclecontentvaluendageautomotiveiconductorcontentvaluepervehiclepplication900(USD)8000000040000200 -2025e20212025e2021ElectrificationcomputingOthersADAS+computingOthers12010080604020-(USD)(USDbn(USD)1,2001,000800600400200-2019202020212022e2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028eAutomotivesemiconductor(LHS)Averagesemicontentpercar(RHS)Source:StrategyAnalytics,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimatesSource:STMicroestimates,HSBCQianhaiSecuritieseverasweshowinthisreportitisntalljustaboutnewfeaturesandapplicationsbeingaddedtocarsWealsodelvedeepintoacarsinternalelectronicarchitectureandshowhowitneedstoevolvetokeepupwiththedemandsoftheindustry.Thiswillbringaboutincreasingdemandforhighcomputingpowerchips,aswellashigh-speedinterconnections,suchasEthernetWealsoshowhowcomponentslikewireharnesses–whichrepresent50%ofthelabourcostsduringanautomobile’sassemblyandcanreachaslongas4km–arebeingredesignedaswellMeanwhile,newsemiconductormaterials,suchassiliconcarbide(SiC),offermanyadvantagesandaresettocreatenewaddressablemarketsforcompaniesinvolvedintheEVsupplychain.eTechnologyEquitiesJulyitAutomotivesemiconductortbreakdowninOtherICOtherICtodiscretes,1%MCU,15%ASIC7%SensorertAutomotivesemiconductoretsharebyvendorinSource:StrategyAnalytics,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesSource:StrategyAnalytics,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesereChinacangrowOfcoursetherearevarioustypesofsemiconductorproductsincarswitheachofferinguniquefeaturesandusecasesInthisreport,wemainlyfocusondiscussingthekeyproductsthatwebelievearecriticalandcouldprovidesubstantiallocalisationopportunitiesforChina:令System-on-chip(SoC).ThisisessentiallyanICthatcombinesthecentralprocessingunit(CPU),graphicprocessingunit(GPU),memory,input/output(I/O)ports,andmanyothercomponentsonasinglechip.LeadingSoCvendorsthatsupplytheautomotiveindustryareintheprocessofliftingtheircomputingpowerfrom100-300trillionoperationspersecondTOPSameasureofcomputingpower)toover500-1,000TOPS,mainlytosupportthegrowingdataprocessingrequirementsfromallsensorsneededforautonomousdriving.InadditionalowerpowerconsumptionperTOPSisrequired,whichismainlyrealisedthroughshrinkingthechipprocessingnode,chiparchitectureandalgorithmoptimisation.ForsmartcockpitSoCweexpectittobecomemorelikeasmartphoneSoCintermsofperformancefeaturesandassuchitcansupportmoresophisticatedfunctions.AllthiscreatesacompetitiveadvantageforleadingsmartphoneSoCmakerstogainshareoverconventionalautosemiconductormakersintermsofscale,productdevelopment,softwareandapplicationengineering.ertrainainsoneormoreMCUsTomovetothemoreadvancedarchitecture(seetheNewautoE/Earchitecturesection)wemaresettobenefitMemoryWebelievememoryscapacityandcontentvalueissettoincreaseinvehicles,ongwiththegrowingadoptionofautonomousdrivinginfotainmentandnetworkconnectivityTherewillbealotmoredatageneratedandprocessedbyvehicles,supportinggrowingdemandformemoryIngeneral,weexpecthigherdensityandhigherbandwidthmemorysemiconductorchipsbasedonleadingedgeprocessingnodestoplayamorecriticalroleinvehicles.materialsiliconcarbideisstartingers6eTechnologyEquitiesJulyVearketingSiCsuppliers令Sensors.WeexpecttoseeanacceleratedadoptionofhigherresolutionimagesensorsinflagshipEVmodels,supportedbythegrowingproliferationofhigh-performanceSoCs,suchasNVIDIA’sOrinandMobileye’sEyeQ5.ONSemistatesthat8MP(megapixel)sensorshavebeenadoptedbyeightautomanufacturersandthatthiswillquadrupleitsrevenuein3.Inaddition,drivermonitoringsystem(DMS)andoccupantdetectionsystem(ODS)sensorsareinarapidgrowthstage,propelledbymandatoryregulationrequirementsforDMSsinEurope.STMicroexpectsthenumberofcarsequippedwithDMSsandODSstoincreasefrom10min2022to50min2027.Webelieve2022willbeamilestoneyearforLiDAR(lightdetectionandranging)sensorsbeingrampedupfordeploymentinpassengervehicles.Whilemechanicalandmicro-electromechanicalsystemLiDARsensorsarethemainstreamtypescurrently,weexpectnewtechnologies,suchasflashandoptical-phasearraytobethefuturesolutionsinthelongrun.WehaveamoredetaileddiscussioninSpotlightAutonomousdrivingsensorsSmartcarsneedsmartsensors,June2021.InvehiclenetworkingIVNchipsThemanytypesofwiresandconnectorsinsideavehicle,especiallythewiringharness‒thethirdheaviestcomponentinavehicleandthethirdmostexpensivesystem‒needtosupporthigherspeeds,higherbandwidthandlowlatencydatatransmission.Weexpecthigh-speedEthernetconnectionstoemergeasalwiressuchascontrollerareanetworksCANslocalinterconnectnetworks(LINs)andmedia-orientedsystemtransport,arelikelytohavealowershareinthecomingyears.WeexpectEthernetnetworkingchips,suchastransceiversandcontrollers,tobewellpositionedtobenefitfromthistrend.nutshelltheincreasinguseofchipswithhigherperformancefasterdatatransmissionbandwidthandstorage,andlowerpowerconsumptionisthedominanttrend,coupledwithadvancedchipfabricationtechnology.Chipdesignersneedtobalancecostandperformanceincommercialisingnextgenerationautomotivesemiconductors.WeexpecttherewillbemorenteringthemarketgiventheconvergenceinfunctionsandperformancefeaturesbetweenautosandPCs/serversinthefuture,whichmaycreatecompetitionandchallengesfortraditionalautochipmakersandTier-1makers.tunitiesWeestimatethemarketshareofChinesesuppliersiscurrentlybelow5%,butweexpecttheywillreplicatethesuccesstheyrealisedintheconsumerelectronicsindustryinthecomingdecadesDomesticcompanieshaveuppedtheirgameinthelastyearandtheirsystemsandproductscannowmeetthestringentqualificationstandardsrequiredinanindustrywhereentrybarriersarehigherthanforsmartphonesandPCs.ThishasbeenachievedbyextensiveinvestmentinRDandaseriesofastuteacquisitions,underpinnedbytheneedtoincreasethecountrysleveloftechnologicalself-sufficiencyatatimeofrisingpoliticalgeopoliticaltensions,globalchipshortagesandimportsubstitution.Theresultsareclearmoreoriginalequipmentmakers(OEMs)inChinaareusingtheservicesupplychainwhichisbecomingmorelocalisedThisiswhyweareexpandingoursectorresearchcoverageinanefforttoconnectautosemiconductorsupplychainstockswiththeautostockswecoverinChina.eTechnologyEquitiesJulytomotivesemiconductorchipsupplychainProductApplication/productGloballeadersChinesevendorsECUECU/MCUVehiclebody,ADAS,Powertrain,Renesas,NXP,Infineon,TIGigaDevice,ChipOn,SinoWealthCockpitMicrochip,STMicroC*CoreTechnology,ChipwaysnfoSineMicroelectronicsBYDSoCAutonomousdriving/ADASNVIDIA,Mobileye,Tesla,QualcommHorizon,Huawei,BlackSesameSmartcockpitQualcommRenesasTeslaNXP,TI,emidriveSiengineAllwinnerMemory&DRAMMicronSamsungHynixIngenic/ISSIrageNANDFlashWesternDigitalKioxa,Micron,msungHynixDeviceDosilicongaDeviceIngenicISSIDosiliconeongaDeviceIngenicISSIDosiliconSRAMonCypressRenesasGSITechSIConnectivityEthernettransceiver/PHYMarvellBroadcomMicrochipIngenic/LumissilCAN/LVDStransceiver/PHYPTIMicrochipInfineonakPowerSiliconMOSFETemiconductorInfineonONSemiSTMicro,Renesas,Wingtech/NexperiaSiliconIGBTfineonFujiMitsubishiONSemiseStarpowerSilanMicroCRRCTimes,iconcarbideMOSFETWolfspeed,Infineon,STMicro,ONSemi,Starpower,San’An,BYD,CRRCRohmTimesnsorImagesensorONSemiSony,STMicroWillSemi/OmniVision,SmartsenseBoschSTMicroInfineonRenesaseRadarMMICNXPTIlterahImSemiAnalogPMICTI,ADI,STMicro,SiliconLabsSGMicro,NovosenseSignalchainTIADI,STMicro,DiodesiverTI,NXP,STMicroIngenic/LumissillectronicsLiDAR‒laseremitterSRAMIIVILumentumetnICHamamatsu,Sony,ONSemiVisionICs,AdapsPhotonicsSRAMNichiaLumiledsSanAn,LatticePowerPassivesMLCCMurata,TDK,TaiyoYuden,SamsungeYang,CCTC,FenghuanicationV2XNXPInfineonBoschSTMicrocommiMorningcoreceCompanydataHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesNoteNANotapplicableavailableeopoliticaltensionscouldbeaswingfactorThesemiconductorchipsupplychainisshowingsignsofdecouplingwitharegionalisationtrendemergingpartlybecauseofachipsupplyshortagein2021,aswellduetologisticsdisruptionsduringthepandemicTherearegrowingconcernsthatgeopoliticaltensionswillimpacttheuctorchipmakerstosourcevitalmaterialsandinputsndyncarg8eTechnologyEquitiesJuly令Theconventionalinternalelectrical/electronic(E/E)architectureinolongerappropriate令Thedomain-centralisedE/Earchitectureisthenewtrend…vingchangesandinnovationintheautoschipsupplychainA2007AudiQ7has80ECUswith1,900datatransmissionwiresthattotal4kminlengthAlowernumberofcontrolunitsmeansalesscomplexsystem,whichisbetterabletohandleupgradesandweighslessitectureevolutiontoreshapetheautosectorToachievehigherlevelsoffunctionalityinvehicles,acar’sinternalelectronicarchitectureneedstoevolveInindustryjargon,thiscriticalpartofavehicleisknownastheE/Earchitectureanditiscrucialtohowcurrentadvancedcarsoperate.Itiswhereallkeycomponents,suchaselectronichardwarenetworkcommunications,softwareandwiring,convergeintooneintegratedsystemandfromthere,itcontrolsthevehicle’sfunctionslikeautonomousdriving,on-boardinfotainmentandvarioussafetycontrols.Theproblemisthatcarsaremostlystillrunninganoutdatedarchitecture.Letusexplain:ItisallaboutthemovefromadistributedtoacentralisedsolutionConventionalEEarchitectureEEAconsistsofalargenumberofECUs.TheyarediscretewitheachECUtypicallyresponsibleforonespecificfunctioninavehicle.EachECUismadeupofamicrocontrollerunitMCUandperipheralcircuits/ICs(suchasanalog-to-digitalsignalconversionICspowermanagementICsmemoryetc.).ThoseECUsareinterconnectedviadifferentwiresandcables.Typically,thereare,onaverage,around30ECUspercar,withover100ECUsinhigh-endmodels.ManufacturershavepreviouslyjuststackedupmoreECUsinacarwhentheyaddedmorefunctions.However,thishasdisadvantagesas:Thewiringharnessisbecominglongerandheavier;itisnowthethirdheaviestcomponentinavehicleandthethirdmostexpensivesystem.Awiringharnessinstallationrepresents50%ofthelabourcostsduringanautomobile’sassembly.Forexample,a2007AudiQ7has80ECUsand1,900datatransmissionwireswithatotallengthof4km.2.Itisnotscalableandlessflexible.Forexample,itisdifficulttointroducenewfunctionsandfeaturesinacarthroughover-the-air(OTA)softwareupdatesasthehardwareandthesoftwareinanindividualECUmaynotsupportthenewupdate.3.Therearebandwidthissues.ThetypicaltypesofwiresincludeaCAN,LINandFlexRayseethe“In-vehiclenetworking(IVN)IC”section),buttheseareunabletosupportthedatatransmissionneededforautonomousdrivingsensors,suchLiDAR,cameras,andhigh-definitionvideo,usedinasmartcockpit.Therefore,thedomain-centralisedEEAisemergingasthenewtrend.MultipleECUsareconsolidatedintoafewpowerfulcomputingunitscalleddomaincontrolunits(DCUs).TheseDCUsareconnectedtoacentralgateway,alongwiththeremainingECUs,aswellasthesensorsandactuatorswhichconvertenergy).ThelowernumberofcontrolunitsmeansalessBeyond20252020-2025Before2020nsVehiclecentralizedE/EarchitectureaintralvehiclegnumberoftionsintheVehiclecloudcomputingdent“(Central)vehiclecontroltialzoneECUs”Vehicle computerzoneECUsCross-domaincentralizedE/EarchitectureIncreasingcross-domainfunctionsg“Cross-domaincontrolunits”“cross-domaincomputer”Domainfusion/specific“Domaincontrolunits”/Beyond20252020-2025Before2020nsVehiclecentralizedE/EarchitectureaintralvehiclegnumberoftionsintheVehiclecloudcomputingdent“(Central)vehiclecontroltialzoneECUs”Vehicle computerzoneECUsCross-domaincentralizedE/EarchitectureIncreasingcross-domainfunctionsg“Cross-domaincontrolunits”“cross-domaincomputer”Domainfusion/specific“Domaincontrolunits”/“domaincomputer”IntegrationDistributedE/EarchitectureModularIncreasingsoftwareamountEachfunctionhasitsECU“Function-specificcontrolunits”complexsystemofferinghigherlevelsofflexibilityintermsofsystemupgrades,and,importantlylessweightandthereforeareductioninthecostofwiresandECUs.High-speedEthernetconnectionsarealsobecomingpopular.AccordingtoBosch’sclassification,therearetypicallyfivemaindomains:powertrain,chassis,bodycomfortcockpitinfotainmentandADAS.ThisiscurrentlythemostwidelyacceptedtypeofEEABoschestimatestheDCUstructurewillresultinupto20%fewerECUs.Volkswagen’sMEBplatformevenusescrossdomain(ordomainfusion)bydividingthecarintojustthreedomainsavehicledomaincontroller(VDC),anADAS/ADdomain(ADC)andacockpitdomaincontroller(CDC).InthelongtermwebelievethecentralisedEEAoreventhecentralzonalEEA–whereavehiclecentralcomputer(VCC)andazonalcontrolunit(ZCU)areconnected–willlikelyreplacedomainfusiontobethenext-generationarchitecture.AVCCisresponsibleforhigh-performancecomputing,datastorage,communicationandcentralmanagement,and,assuch,itisessentiallyacentraldatacentreinacar.AZCUmainlyprocessessomefunctionsfromaparticularpartofacarwithembeddedgateways(agatewayisacentralhubthatensuresthereliabilityandseamlessnessofdatatransmissionandinterconnectionviatheheterogeneousvehiclenetwork).TeslaisapioneerandhasalreadyadoptedthecentralisedEEAinitsModel3andModelY.ItsVCC(whichitcallsitscentralcomputermodule)consistsofADAS,in-vehicleinfotainmentandcommunicationunits,withthreeZCUs(front,leftandrightbodycontrolmodules).Asaresult,Teslacutthetotalwirelengthfrom3kminitsModelS/Xto1.5kminModel3and1.0kminitsModelY.Tesla’sultimategoalistoshrinkthewireconsumptioninacartoonly100m(Electrek,22July2019).XpenghasadoptedthedomainfusionarchitectureinitsEE2.0architecture,whichisappliedtoitsP5model.ItsEE3.0architecture(acentralisedEEA)isalsoreadytobedeployedinitsupcomingG9modelinlate2022(NetEase,29June2022).ibitEEarchitecturemigrationroadmapDomainDomaincentralizationTyp.state-of-the-artautoECUs(functionspecific)OptionalECUs(e.g.centralgateway)Sensors/actuatorsECU=electroniccontrolunitPerformanceECUs(e.g.cross-domaincontrolunit,(cross-)domaincomputer,vehiclecontrolcomputer)Source:Boschestimates,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesDomainindependentzoneECUsDomain-specificzoneECUs(e.g.today’sdoorECU)dinationindependentlyntralizedcontrolcrossmaineTechnologydinationindependentlyntralizedcontrolcrossmainExhibitEEAcomparisonbetweendistributedanddomain¢ralisedsolutionsDistributedEEADomain&CentralisedEEAGatewaycommunicationwireControllerareanetwork(CAN)EthernetDatabandwidth10-124bit/s(upto8MbpsforCAN-FD)10Gbit-100Gbit/sCommunicationperformanceHeavyloadinwire;duplicatetransmissioninwiresHighbandwidth;lowlatency,lowcostinationcontentUptoECUshighpowerconsumption;largeReducedECUs;lesspower,spaceandspaceweightComputingredundancyHighredundancy;lowcomputingperformanceutilisationratehighperformanceutingultipleOSandsoftwarevendorshardtohavegradeSource:Bosch,G,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesCentralisedOSandsoftwaresystemeasyforOTAWebelievethestructuralshiftinE/Earchitecturewillbringaboutopportunitiesandchallengesinthesemiconductorsupplychain.Weexpecthigh-performanceSoCs,multi-functionMCUsandhighspeedinterconnectIC(suchasEthernet),aswellasadvancedcommunicationsystemstosupportOTAupgradesandvehicle-to-cloud(V2C)services(allowingdriverstoviewinformationonline)tobenefitfromthistrend.Inaddition,surgingdataprocessingdemandrequiresmorememorycapacityandmoresophisticatedsoftwaresolutionstodrivevehicleinnovationsOntheflipside,single-functionMCUs,low-speedwiresandconnectorsareareasthatwilllikelyseefallingcontentvalueinthecomingyears.omotiveelectronicsroadmapanalysis2000201020202030eTotalprocessorpercar~10~30~45~60nzonalcontrollersLinesofcode4K10M100-200M500-1000Mperwiringkm1-2kmCopperwiringreduced~50%Weightofwiringharness10kg30kg75kgWeightreduced~50%DatageneratedperdayMB's2-3GB50GB10-12TBDatatransferperdayMinimal50MB1-2GB40-50GBourceNXPHSBCQianhaiSecuritieseTechno