外文翻译-利用层次分析法选择各类发电厂

英文原文Multi-criteriaselectionofelectricpowerplantsusinganalyticalhierarchyprocessAbstractThispaperusesanalyticalhierarchyprocess(AHP)methodologytoperformacomparisonbetweenthedifferentelectricitypowerproductionoptionsinJordan.Thesystemswhichwereconsidered,inadditiontofossilfuelpowerplants,arenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.Resultsoncosttobenefitratiosshowthatsolar,wind,endhydro-powermaybethebestalternativesforelectricpowerproduction.Nuclearelectricityturnsouttobetheworstchoice,followedbyfossilfuelelectricpower.1.IntroductionJordanisanon-oilproducingMiddle-Easterncountry.Itreliesheavilyonimportingoilfromneighboringcountries.Mostoftheelectricpowerthatisgeneratedtoservedifferentsectorsofthecountryisproducedfrompowerplantsthatusefossilfuel.Thisfueliseithertotallyimportedsuchaspetroleumhydrocarbonfuel,orpartiallylocal(onlywithsmallpercentage)suchasnaturalgas.The1996electricalenergyconsumptioninJordanreachedavalueof6000GWh.About93%ofhisamountwasproducedbytheNationalElectricPowerCompany(NEPCO)whichisthemainelectricitysupplierinthecountry[1].Otheroptionsoralternativesofenergysourcesforelectricpowergenerationmustteeconsidered.Theseoptionsmayincludenuclear,solar,wind,orhydro-electricenergies.TheJordanianexperiencewithelectricitygenerationusingsolarandwindenergytechnologyhasbeenonthesmallandexperimentalscale.TheserenewableenergysystemswereutilizedinmostlyremoteareasofJordan.Theyareusedtogenerateelectricpowerforindividualapplicationsuchasclinics,lighting,andeducationaltelevisionsets.TheremotevillageofJurfEldaraweeshlocatedintheJordandesertofapopulationof600,isthebestexample[2].Thenecessaryelectricalenergyistotallysuppliedbysolarandwindenergyconversionsystems.Inthispaper,oil-firedpowerplantsinadditiontootheralternativesarebeingevaluated.Theotheralternativesincludenuclear,solar,windandhydro-power.Abriefdescriptionofvariouspowerplanttechnologieswillbepresented.Usingadecision-supportsystemthroughamultiplecriteriaanalysis,suchasAHP,anattemptwillbemadetoassistdecisionmakerstoevaluatetheuseoftheabovetechnologieswhichcanbemostsuitableforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.2.Fossil-fuelelectricalpowerplantsIngeneral,fossilfuelsarenon-renewable.Theyoriginatefromtheearthasaresultofdecompositionandchemicalconversionoforganicmaterials.Theycomeinthreeorganicforms:(1)solid,e.g.coalandoilshale;(2)liquid,e.g.mostpetroleumproducts,and(3)gas,e.g.naturalgas.Coalrepresentsthelargestfossil-fuelenergyresourceinelectricpowergeneration[3,4].OilshaleisafossilfuelthatexistsinJordaninabundance,butwithunattractivephysicalproperties.First,likealloilshales,ithasalowheatingvalueduetothehighashcontent[5].Secondly,theJordanianoilshalehassulfurcontents,ranging4–6%[6].Becauseoflowpricesofpetroleumworldwidetheutilizationofsolidfossilfuels,suchasoilshale,cannotbefeasibleatthetimebeing.Therefore,oilshalepowerplantscannotbeconsideredtobecompetitive[3].PetroleumandnaturalgasarethemainfuelsusedfortheelectricpowergenerationinJordaninadditiontosmallhydro-poweredelectricitygenerationplants.Table1representstheexistingelectricalpowerplantsinJordan[1].3.ElectricitypowerproductionusingsolarenergySincethe1970ssolarenergyhasreceivedthegreatestattentionofallrenewableenergysourcesallovertheworld.Manyregarditasthesolutionforcleanerenvironmentandmaybethealternativetofossilandnuclearfuels.Thus,solarenergyhasbeentheobjectforproductionofelectricalpower.Manystudiesandexperienceshaveshownthatsolarthermalpowerplantsareoneofthemosteconomicformsofsolarelectricitygeneration.Solarenergycanbeconvertedintoelectricitybyphotovoltaiccells,butthisprocessismostlyconvenientandsuitableforsmallapplicationsonly.Standalonephotovoltaicpowersystemswereproposedforelectrificationofremoteareasofwhichtheyarelocatedoutsidetheelectricitygrid-connectionsupplysystem[7].Ontheotherhand,solarenergycanbeconvertedintothermalenergybymeansofsolarcollectorsorconcentrators.Aworkingfluidisusedtoconvertthethermalenergyintomechanicalenergywhichisthenconvertedintoelectricity.Unlikephotovoltaics,largeamountsofelectricalpowercanbegeneratedfromsuchplants.Thetypesofreceiversthatcanbeseriouslyconsideredare:(1)centralreceivers,(2)dispersedordistributedreceiversand(3)solarponds.LikemostcountriesoftheMiddleEast,Jordanenjoyslongperiodsofsunshine.Thelocalweatherhasover300cloudlessdaysperyear.FuturetechnologysuggeststhattheDeadSeaitselfcanbeusedas450km2solarlake,operatinga2500MWpowerplant[8].Inarecentstudy,thepotentialofusingtheDeadSeaasalargenaturalsolarpondforgenerationofelectricityinJordanwasexplored[9].Kribusetal.[10]haveshownnewsolarpowerplantconceptbyincorporatingnewdevelopmentsofsolarpoweroptics,highperformanceairreceivers,andsolar-to-gasturbineinterface.Intermsofeconomicalpointofview,Kolb[11]foundhybridpowertowerstobesuperiortosolar-onlyplantswiththesamefieldsize.Thereisanumberofsolarthermalpowerplantsinoperationaroundtheworld.Theyarefoundtobeoneofthemosteconomicalsystemsforgeneratingelectricity[12,13].Recently,theco-generationofelectricityandpotablewaterbyutilizationofsolarenergywascarriedout[14,15].Thiskindofsystemlooksattractiveinremoteareaswherebothwaterisscaresandelectricitygridisnotavailable.Thesystemiscapableofproducing30MWeormore.4.ElectricalpowerproductionusingwindenergyItisverywellestablishedthatwindenergyresourceislargeandgloballywidespread.Fordifferentapplications,itisclearthatwindenergycanbecompetitiveinmanylocations[16–18].Windenergycanbeusedinmanyapplicationssuchaswaterpumping[19],andwaterdesalination[20].Itcanalsobeusedfortheelectricalpowergenerationusingwindenergyconversionsystem[21].Windpowerisexpectedtobeoneoftheleastexpensiveformsofnewelectricalgenerationinthetwenty-firstcentury[22].WithglobaleffortstobecometoughonfossilfuelrelatedenergysystemsandtoreducetheemissionsofCO2significantly,thiswillmostlikelyintroducelowercostwindsystems.Forexample,largewindpowerplantsatgoodwindsitesusingemergingtechnologiescandeliverelectricityintoutilitygridatlowpricesthatarebecomingcompetitivewiththoseofconventionalpowergeneration.Windpowerplantscanusehundredsofwindturbinesthatrangeinsizefrom50to500kWeachlocatedinsomeremoteareas.Theplant’scomputerizedandcontrolcenteroperatessimilartofossilfuelplants,exceptitdoesnothavetobeinsightofturbines.Inarecentstudyamodelofwindpowerplantforisolatedlocationwaspresented[23].Increasesinthepricesoffuelandcostoffossilfuelplantsandinrelyinglessonnon-renewableenergyresources,decreasethevalueandcostofwindpowergenerationsystemssignificantly[24,25].TherearenumberofsitesinJordanwithpotentiallyhighwindspeeds,thatcanbeutilizedforthispurpose[26,27].Habalietal.[27]havepresentedanevaluationofwindenergyinJordananditsapplicationforelectricalpowergeneration.Atotalof11windsiteswereconsideredcoveringtheentirecountry.ThethreemostpotentialsitesinJordanarefoundtobeRasMuneef,Mafraq,andAqaba.Theyhavewindspeedsthatrangefrom4to23msthroughout80%ofthewholeyear.5.Hydro-electricpowerplantsHydro-electricpowerplantscanprovideabasisforevaluatingthepotentialofrenewablesourcesofenergy.Whencomparedtootherthermalpowerplants,theyarefoundtobeconventionalandreliable.Somecountriesutilizethisformoffreenaturalenergyintousefultypeofelectricalpower.Forexample,11%oftheelectricpowerproducedintheUSAwasprovidedbyhydro-electricpower[4].EgyptandTurkey,countriesofthisregion,alsoutilizethistypeofpowerforgeneratingelectricityatlowcosts.Anumberofstudieswereinvolvedinutilizinghydro-powerinJordanforthepurposeofelectricityproduction[28],waterdesalination[29,30],andbothelectricityproductionandwaterdesalination[8,31].Thesestudies,mainly,consideredthelinkageofRedandDeadSeaswithacanaltogeneratehydro-power.TheDeadSeaisabout400mbelowsealevel(BSL),itisroughly200kmtothenorthoftheGulfofAqaba.ItisanextensionoftheRedSea.TheDeadSeahasnooutlet;itswaterlevelisafunctionofinflowandevaporationofwater.ForthousandsofyearstheDeadSeamaintainedanequilibriumwiththeannualinflowandevaporationofwater.Thisresultedinaconstantsealevel.Forexample,in1930thesurfaceoftheDeadSeawasmeasuredatitshistoricalelevationofabout390mBSL.TheJordanRiverisconsideredtobethemaintributaryoftheDeadSea.Overtheyearsduetoincreaseinpopulationandagriculturaldevelopment,waterwasdivertedforirrigationintheJordanValleyandneighboringcountries.Therefore,itselevationwasforcedtodrop,drastically;in1993itwas408mBSL.Tohaltthistrend,itwillbenecessarytointroduceasubstantialamountofnewwatertothesea.SeawaterfromtheRedSeacanbeusedasasourceofwaferneededfordiversionintotheDeadSea.Thisdiversioncanbeusedtoeithermaintaintheseaatitscurrentlevelandthusstopitsdropping,oreventobringitbacktoitshistoricallevel.ThepowerobtainedfromsuchprocesscanbeusedtogenerateelectricityandallowevenmorefreshwatertobedivertedfromtheJordanRiver.6.NuclearpowerplantsItisverywellknownfactthatforthosecountriesthatrelyonbutdonothaveoil,nuclearpowerbecomesastrategicaswellaseconomicnecessity[3].Nuclearpowerplantscanpayfortheircapitalcostinafewshortyears.Thus,alessexpensiveelectricpowercanbeproducedwithoutrelyingonimportingforeignoil,oratleastthereductioninoilimport.Somebelievethatonedayoilwillbedepleted,andnuclearpowerbecomesamust.Therefore,itisimportanttostartthistechnologynowinordertoassurethecountrywouldnotbeleftbehindwhenthetimecomestohavetousenucleartechnology.Nuclearelectricityoffersanadvantagefromanenvironmentalpointofviewandairpollution.Ithaslessenvironmentalproblemsthatareassociatedwithoil-firedpowerplants.Thus,nuclearpowerisboundtobecomethechoiceofpowerforthefuture.Therearesomedifficultiesthatareassociatedwithnuclearpower,namely,wastedisposalandsafety.Ifthiskindofenergybecomespopularinmostcountriesaroundtheworld,solutionstotheseproblembecomeamustandthusbefound.7.TheanalytichierarchyprocessTheanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP),whichwasdevelopedbySaaty[32],hasbeenaneffectivetoolinstructuringandmodelingmulti-objectiveproblems.Forexample,ithasbeenappliedtobusinessdecisions[33],selectionofareasofresearchanddevelopmentprograms[34],realestateinvestments[32],waterpolicies[35],andwaterdesalinationtechnologies[29].AHPcanassistdecisionmakerstoevaluateaproblemintheformofahierarchyofreferencesthroughaseriesofpairwisecomparisonsofrelativecriteria.Briefly,relativeweightsaredeterminedthroughpairwisecomparison.Themethodcanbeappliedbybreakingdowntheunstructuredcomplexscorecardproblemsintocomponentparts.Hierarchicalordersarethenarrangedbyformingvaluetreestructures.Subjectivejudgmentsontherelativeimportanceofeachpartarerepresentedbyassigningnumericalvalues;thenumericalvaluesareselectedinaccordancetoFig.1.Thesejudgmentsarethensynthesizedintheuseofeigenvectorstodeterminewhichvariableshavethehighestpriority.ThedecisionregardingtheselectionofanoptimumsystemforelectricitypowergenerationinJordanwasevaluatedaccordingtobenefitsandcosts.Cost-tobenefitanalysisisobtainedbyseparatingcostsfrombenefitsandstructuringseparatehierarchiesforbenefitsandcosts.TheywereconstructedasshowninFigs.2and3.Theoverallobjective(goal)forbothhierarchieswastoselectanoptimumsystem(i.e.level1).Fig.2showsthecosthierarchy.Thecostcriteriaatlevel2arecostoffuel,hardwarecost,maintenanceandservice,auxiliarysystem,andenvironmentalconstraints.Fig.3presentsthebenefithierarchy,itincludesallpossiblebenefitsthatmaybederivedfromthevariouselectricalpowergenerationpowerplants,asappliedtoJordan.Level1ofFig.3istheselectionoftheoptimumsystemintermsofbenefits.Thebenefitcriteriaatlevel2aretheefficiencyofthesystem,itsreliability,itssafety,availabilityofthefuelusedinthesystem,itseffectonnationaleconomy,andsocialbenefits.ThethirdlevelofthecostandbenefithierarchiesrepresentsthevarioustechnologiesoralternativeswhicharegoingtobeconsideredforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.Inadditiontofossilfuelfiredpowerplantsthesesystemsincludenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.8.ResultsanddiscussionFig.2showsthatnuclearandfossilfuelpowerplantshavethehighestcost,withrelativeweightsof0.429and0.337,respectively.Ontheotherhandsolar,wind,andhydrohavemuchlowervaluesofrelativeweightsintherangeof0.077–0.079.Itisbasedonthecosthierarchywhichindicatesthatcostoffuelhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.375amongallothercostsconsidered.Itisfollowedbyhardwareandmaintenancecosts;theirrelativeweightis0.215each.Environmentalconstraintsandtheneedofauxiliarysystemhavethelowestrelativeweightswithvaluesof0.122and0.074,respectively.Benefitshierarchy(Fig.3)showsthatfossilfuelpowerplanthasthemostbenefitshavingarelativeweightof0.255.Itisfollowedbysolarandwindpowerplants;theircorrespondingrelativeweightsare0.162and0.130,respectively.System’sreliabilityhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.365.Itisfollowedbyavailabilityoffuel,system’sefficiency,itseffectonnationaleconomy,safetyandthensocialbenefits.Inordertogivethecompletepicturetheoverallcostpriorities(relativeweights)weredividedbythebenefitpriorities.Anoverallnormalizedcost-tobenefitratiowasobtainedforeachsystem.TheyarepresentedinFig.4.Itisshownthatnuclearelectricalpowerplantshavethehighestoverallcost-to-benefitratio,witharelativeweighsvalueof0.57.Fossilfuelpowerplantshavethesecondrelativeweightofabout0.23.Thebestsystemswithlowestcost-to-benefitratiosaresolar,followedbywindandthenhydrohavingrelativeweightsof0.058,0.061,and0.083,respectively.9.ConclusionsBasedonAHP,solarelectricalpowerplantshavethepotentialtobethebesttypeofsystemforelectricityproductioninJordan.Theyarefollowedbywindandthenhydro-powerplants.Onecanarguethatallthreetechnologiesoranyofthetwocombinedcanbeusedsincetheyhavecloserelativeweights.Ontheotherhandnuclearpowerplantshavetheworstratingandfossilfuelpowerplantsaresomewhatlittlebetterthannuclear.中文译文利用层次分析法选择各类发电厂摘要本文运用层次分析法(AHP)详细地介绍了利用不同能源进行发电。这个理论认为,除了化石燃料发电厂,还有核能、太阳能、风能、水电。结果表明,成本效益比较好的太阳能、风能、水电可能是电力生产的最佳选择。核能发电是最坏的选择,紧随其后的是化石燃料发电。1.介绍约旦是非石油生产的中东国家。它进口的石油来自邻近国家。大部分的电力来自国家不同的电力行业,这些电厂使用化石燃料。这些燃料不是完全进口的石油碳氢燃料,或部分地方(只有很小的百分比,例如天然气)是碳氢燃料。1996年的电能消耗的价值达到了约6000美元/年。他数量的93%是由国家电力公司(NEPCO)供应的,国家电力公司是在这个国家主要的电力供应商。其他选择的能源发电必须加以考虑。这些选项可以包括核能、太阳能、风能、水电能源。约旦太阳能和风能发电技术已在小规模实验。这些可再生能源的利用系统主要的偏远地区。他们生产的电力被用来个人申请，如诊所、照明、教育的电视机。这个偏远的村子位于约旦沙漠,是世界上最好的例子。所需的电能是完全由太阳能和风能转化系统提供。在这篇文章中,除原油电厂，其他方案都被评估。提出了一个简短的描述各种电站技术的方案，该方案包括核能、太阳能、风力和水力。通过使用决策支持系统分析多重标准,如层次分析法(AHP),试图协助决策者评估使用上述技术,它在约旦可以是最适合电力生产的方案。2.化石燃料发电一般来说,化石燃料是不可再生的。他们来自地球的分解和化学转化的有机材料。他们有三类:(1)固体,如煤和石油页岩;(2)液体,如大多数石油化工产品。(3)气体,例如天然气。电力是最大的缩减燃料能源的代表。石油是一种化石燃料，在约但河中存在丰富。首先,就像所有的石油页岩,它有一个较低的加热价值。其次,约旦石油页岩有硫磺含量,4-6%。由于石油的价格低，世界范围内的利用率高的化石燃料,如石油页岩。因此,石油页岩发电厂可以不被认为是竞争的。在约旦除了小水电动力发电，石油和天然气是主要的发电燃料。3.太阳能发电自20世纪70年代，太阳能已经在世界各地开始使用。许多国家把它作为解决环境污染和可能替代化石和核能的能源。因此,太阳能已经作为生产电力的对象。许多研究和经验表明，太阳能发电是电力行业中最经济发电形式。太阳能也能被转换成电池,但是这个过程光伏电池是最方便的，但适用于小型应用。独立光伏电源系统提出了电气化偏远地区的电力电网连接外供电系统[7]。另一方面,太阳能量可以转化热能，利用太阳能集热器或集中器等。如把太阳能转换成热能，然后变成机械能，再转化为电能。大量的电力也可以产生电池。这个类型的接收器,能认真考虑是:(1)中心的接收器,(2)分布式接收器和(3)太阳池。乔丹最喜欢享受中东国家漫长的阳光，当地的天气已超过300万里无云的日子。未来技术表明,死海本身可以作为450平方公里,2500兆瓦电厂，运行一个太阳能湖。最近的一份报告研究,死海可作为潜在利用的大型天然太阳池。从经济的角度讲,发现的混合动力塔只有太阳与同一领域的尺寸。有大量的太阳能热发电厂在操作环游世界。他们发现是其中最经济系统是用于太阳能发电。这类系统很有吸引力的地方都是水边远地区电网吓人,不是可利用的。该系统能够生产30MW电能或更多。4.风能发电风能非常好的一面在全球范围内广泛存。对于不同的应用程序,很明显的是,风能可以在许多位置有竞争优势。风能可以应用在许多场合,如抽水、海水淡化。它还可以用于发电用风能量转换系统。风力发电有望成为二十一世纪新电子产生的最便宜的形式。全球的化石燃料与相关的能量系统变得强硬,为减少排放的二氧化碳,风系统的介绍可能显著降低成本。例如,大型的风力发电在风网站利用新兴技术能提供公用电网电在低价竞争关系,成为传统发电。风力发电厂可以用数以百计的风力涡轮，范围大小从50到500千瓦各座落在一些遥远的地区。工厂的计算机控制中心设有类似的化石燃料植物,除了它不需要的涡轮机。最近的研究模式是定位算法风力发电装置。价格上涨的燃料和成本的化石燃料的依赖,在植物上的不可再生的能源资源,降低成本和价值的风力发电系统明显。在约旦有潜在的高速度有数字的网站,可用于该目的。所提交的评估,风能在约旦和其申请电力。风地点被覆盖了整个国家。这三个最具发展潜力的地点被发现是在约旦,易燃、临亚喀巴湾。他们风速范围从4至23日已经达到80%。5.水力发电水力发电厂可以对潜在的可再生能源提供了评估依据。相较于其他的火电厂,他们是传统的和可靠的。一些国家利用这种形式的免费天然能量转化为有用类型的电力。例如,在美国11%的电力生产是水电。埃及和土耳其国家的这一地区,还将这种类型的动力用于在低成本发电。在约旦大量的研究是参加利用水力发电为目的的海水淡化,在这些研究成果的基础上,主要考虑的红河和死海的联系与运河海产生水电。死海低于海平面(BSL)400米,大约200公里,北临亚喀巴湾湾，它是一种扩展红海。死海没有出路；其水位是一个函数及水的蒸发。几千年来,死海维护一个年度流入和蒸发水的平衡。这导致了一个常数。例如,在1930年死海的表面测量其历史的高度大约390米BSL。约但河,被认为是死海的主要支流。在约旦河谷和灌溉的邻国,多年来由于人口和农业发展增加,水被转移。因此,它的海拔被迫大幅下降,1993年,BSL408米。来阻止这种趋势,必须引进大量的新水流入大海。从红海海水可以用来作为一种来源需要移师死海。这种转移可以用来保持在海洋目前的水平,从而阻止其下降,甚至带它回到历史的水平。从这样的过程中获得的力量可以用来发电,更多的新鲜水要从约但河引入。6.核能发电在这些国家,依靠油却没有，这是非常有名的事实。发展核电已成为战略以及发展经济必要。核能电厂有能力在短短数年支付他们的资本成本。因此,一个更便宜的电力可以不用依赖进口国外石油,或至少减少石油进口。有些人相信有一天油会枯竭了,核能成为必然趋势。因此,重要的是开始这个技术,以保证国家将不会被甩在后面的时候要用核技术。核能发电提供一个优势,从