《高比例可再生能源消纳》

JasonMacDowell史保壮GE能源咨询Beijing北京2014-9-15IntegratingHighPenetrationofRenewablesIntotheGrid

高比例可再生能源消纳

GEEnergyManagement1920sCentralStationEngineering1930sCentralStationEngineeringw/AnalyticalEngineering1950sCombinedElectric

Utility&IndustrialApplicationEngineering1960sElectricUtility

EngineeringOperation1970sElectricUtility

SystemsEngineeringDepartment1980sSystemsDevelopment&EngineeringDepartment1990sPowerSystems

EnergyConsulting21stCentury1880sThomsonHoustonCoPower&MiningDept.April15,1892GEformedbymergerofEdisonGeneralElectricandThomsonHoustonEnergyConsultingEnergyConsulting…First100years能源咨询BirthofanIndustryInfrastructureGrowthLargeCentralizedGen.Stations&EHVRegionalGridsOilEmbargoCompetitionStagnationDeregulationCorePracticeAreas主要领域CentersofExcellencewithGlobalReachFornearlyacentury…Solvingglobalelectricpowerindustry’smostpressingchallenges…drivinggreateraffordability,reliability,andefficiencyPolicy

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Planning

Investment

AnalysisPowerEconomics电力经济Transmission

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Distribution

Commercial

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IndustrialPowerSystems

Operation&

Planning电力系统规划与运行Thermal

Renewables,Controls&

ProtectionGlobalPowerProjects电力项目MAPSPSLFMARSCommercial

Software

Specialty

SoftwareSoftware软件Education电力培训PowerSystemEnergyCoursesCustomizedTrainingGE’sIntegrationofRenewablesExperience

可再生能源消纳研究案例

2004NewYork

3GWWind 10%PeakLoad 4%Energy

2005Ontario

15GWWind 50%PeakLoad 30%Energy

2006California

13GWWind 3GWSolar 26%PeakLoad 15%Energy

2007Texas

15GWWind 25%PeakLoad 17%Energy

2009WesternU.S.

72GWWind 15GWSolar 50%PeakLoad 27%Energy

Studiescommissionedbyutilities,commissions,ISOs...Examinefeasibilityof300+GWofnewrenewablesConsideroperability,costs,emissions,transmission受政府、ISO和电力公司的委托，研究了：大于3亿kW的可再生能源接纳的可行性

考虑电网运行、费用、排放、传输等各种因素Universalneedforfleetflexibility,newoperatingstrategiesandmarkets,transmissionreinforcement,gridfriendlyrenewables2008Maui

70MWWind 39%PeakLoad 25%Energy2010Oahu

500MWWind 100MWSolar 55%PeakLoad 25%EnergyPJMStudy(underway)

96GWWind 22GWSolar 30%Energy2012NSPIStudy 900MWWind 25%Energy2010NewEngland

12GWWind 39%PeakLoad 24%EnergyPan-Canadian(underway) ~72GWWind 30%EnergyGradientsindicatesystemssubjecttoindividualstudiesandalsoincludedinlargerregionalstudies1day1min1hr1wk10min1secPositiveSequenceLoadFlow(GEPSLFTM)GEInterhour

ScreeningToolTMLong-termDynamicSimulations(GEPSLFTM)Multi-AreaProductionSimulation(GEMAPSTM)ThesefourtoolscanbeusedtogethertoquantifytheimpactsofwindpoweronthepowersystemVoltageSupport

InertiaGovernorResponse

AGCRegulation

EconomicDispatch

PlanningGEPowerSystemsAnalysisTools电力系统研究工具Impactofvariability&uncertainty

可再生能源的变化性和不确定性的影响Renewablepenetrationincreasesvariabilityanduncertainty高比例的可再生能源增加了系统的变化性和不确定性

Thermalgenerationresourcesmust:需要火电具备：RampfasterandmoreoftenCycleon/offfasterandmoreoftenProvidemoreshort-termreserves

Needtoprepareforthefutureofthegrid需要提前做好准备FastrampingandshorterstarttimerequirementsfornewgenerationDevelopdemandresponsecapability

tocomplementshort-termreservesSource:NRELWesternWind&SolarIntegrationStudyGWGWTheWeekofJuly10,2006WindandsolarpowerdisplacecombinedcycleplantsSteamCoalCombinedCycleHydroGasTurbinePVWindCSPNuclearPumpedHydroSource:NRELWesternWind&SolarIntegrationStudyGWGWPVWindCSP706050403020100706050403020100MONTUEWEDTHURFRISATSUNMONTUEWEDTHURFRISATSUNADifferentWeek…April10,2006CoalplantsarebackeddowntoaccommodatewindandsolarpowerSteamCoalCombinedCycleHydroGasTurbineWindNuclearLessonsLearned...SuccessfactorsForecastingThermalfleetflexibilityHigherquickstartsDeeperturn-downFasterrampsMorespatialdiversityRenewable+DG+DemandA/SGrid-friendlyrenewablesImpedimentsLackoftransmissionLackofcontrolareacooperationInflexibilityduetomarketrulesandcontractsUnobservableDGs–behindthefenceInflexibleoperationstrategiesduringlightload&highriskperiodsSystemCostRenewablepenetrations,%SuccessFactorsImpedimentsSystemcostUnservedEnergyRPSmissHigherCostofEnergyHigherEmissionsHigherO&M

AllgridscanaccommodatesubstantialamountsofwindandsolarThereisNEVERahard“upperlimit”Policyandpowermarketstructures…keytosuccessRenewables(%)SuccessFactorsSystemCostImpediments成功的因素风电/太阳能预测火电机组更快速启动更深的调节深度更快的爬坡率地理空间更加分散辅助服务对电网更加友好的风电技术困难输电网络不足区域之间缺乏协作由于市场体制不适应不可调度电源低谷负荷和高风险时运行调度的不灵活性系统付出的代价无法向用户供电；无法传输风电/太阳能；达不到可再生能源目标要求；电量成本；更高的排放；运行维护费用…电网能够接纳大比例的风电和太阳能-理论上不存在‘消纳上限’政策和市场机制是成功的关键对我们的启示…GasGTGasCCGTCleanCoalHoursofOperation/YearSystem

LoadBaseLoadGenerationPeakingGenerationMid-MeritGenerationBaseLoadGenerationSystemLoadNetLoad(Systemloadminuswindpower)PeakingGenerationHydroEmergingFlexibleResourcesBESSNuclearSmartGridMid-MeritGenerationWindVariabilityDrivingFlexibleGeneration对系统电源调节特性要求的影响Additionofwindgeneration:NetLoadDurationCurvebecomesmoresteepWindgenerationhassmall(butnotzero)impactonpeakloadWindgenerationhasmajorimpactonlowandminimumloadconditionsLessBaseLoadandMoreMid-meritandPeakingGeneration需要更少的基荷以及更多的腰荷调节能力Impactonexistinggenerationfleet?对现有电源的影响

Lowercapacityfactorsforbaseandmid-meritgenerationUseof“peakers”at“unusual”timesPressuretoincreasehydromaneuverabilityIncreasedcombinedcyclecycling(todayandgrowingrapidly)Increasedcoalcycling(growingrapidlyinsomeplaces)IncreasedO&M,higheroutagerates,environmentalperformanceimpactsCrediblequantitativedataislimited;sensitiveClaimsofcosts,lossoflife,andphysicalcapabilityarevariableSeverityofimpactsandtheallocationofcostsisatopicofintensedebateEnergyAssociatedwithBalancingForecastedWindwithDedicatedThermalGeneration燃机平衡风电预测误差相关的能量分布“Opportunity”forGTtosellpeakingenergy,–righthandscale燃机生产调峰电量的机会右边的坐标Thebiggerthe“firming”GT,thesmallertheenergy“miss”燃机容量越大，不足的供电量越小Ratioof5:1reducesforecasterrormissesto4.3%ofwindenergy:equivalenttoatypicalcoalplantforcedoutagerate五比一的比例可将预测失误降低到4.3%的风电，与火电的故障率相似

GEEnergyConsultingPJMRenewableIntegrationStudy

PJM可再生能源消纳研究Task1WindandSolarProfileDevelopment风/光数据Task2ScenarioDevelopmentandAnalysis情景设计和分析Task3A)OperationalImpactAnalysis运行影响分析B)MarketAnalysis市场分析Task4Mitigation,Facilitation,Report措施、建议、报告ProjectOverview

概要PJMOverviewPJM概要

RenewablesIntegrationStudyScenarioOnshoreWind(MW)OffshoreWind(MW)CentralizedSolar(MW)DistributedSolar(MW)Total(MW)2%BAU5,12207205,19414%RPS28,8344,0003,2544,10240,19020%LOBO39,4524,8518,07810,11162,49220%LODO40,9424,8518,07810,11163,98220%HOBO21,63222,5818,07810,11162,40220%HSBO32,2284,02616,19820,29472,74630%LOBO59,8666,84618,19016,907101,80930%LODO63,3216,84618,19016,907105,26430%HOBO33,80534,48918,19016,907103,39130%HSBO47,1275,43027,27033,823113,650TotalPJMWindandSolarCapacityforStudyScenarios

风电光电场景14%RPSScenario30%LowOffshore,BestSitesOnshoreStudy&AnalyticalApproach研究分析方法HourlyProductionsimulationanalysiswithGE’sConcordaSuiteMulti-AreaProductionSimulation(GEMAPS)modelwasusedtoevaluatehour-by-hourgridoperationofeachscenariowithdifferentwindandloadprofiles.

机于GE-MAPS的多区域生产仿真分析Sub-hourlySimulationanalysiswithPowerGEM’sPortfolioOwnership&BidEvaluation(PROBE)modelwasusedtoquantifygridperformancetrendsandtoinvestigatepotentialmitigationmeasuresinthe10-minutetimeframe.Thesub-hourlyanalysissimulatedtheoperationofdispatchablegenerationresourcesaswellasvariablewindgenerationinthestudyfootprintusing10-minutetimestepsforselecteddays,whileenforcingconstraintsrelatedtounitramprates,ramprange,andintertieflowschedules.ThesesimulationsenabledexaminationoftheresponsivenessofPJMresourcesinmitigatingimpactofwindgenerationinsub-hourlyperiods.

小时内的仿真分析Wind/SolarCapacityValuationinvolvedlossofloadexpectation(LOLE)calculationsforthestudyfootprintusingtheGEConcordaSuite’sMulti-AreaReliabilitySimulation(GEMARS)model.Theanalysisquantifiedtheimpactofwindgenerationonoverallreliabilitymeasures,aswellasthecapacityvaluesofthewindgenerationresources.

风电光电的有效容量KeyFindings主要研究发现ThePJMsystem,withadequatetransmissionandancillaryservicesintheformofRegulation,willnothaveanysignificantissueabsorbinghigherlevelsofrenewableenergypenetration如果具备必要的传输能力和辅助服务（调节能力），PJM可以接纳高比例的可再生能源PJM’scurrentenergyschedulingpracticesalreadyincorporatesPJM已经采用此前研究推荐的调度策略recommendationsfrompreviousrenewableenergyintegrationstudies.Resultsshowed…结果表明Lowersystem-wideproductioncost整个系统的运行费用更低Reductionrangedfrom16to30%comparedto2%BAU比基线情景降低费用16-30%LoweremissionsofcriteriapollutantsandgreenhousegasesNounservedloadandminimalrenewableenergycurtailmentLowerGasandCoalgenerationunderallscenarios,alsoreducedimportsAveragedisplacement-39%forGas;36%forCoal;25%comparedto2%BAULowergrossrevenuesforconventionalgenerationresourcesTheaverageregulationforloadonly1,204MW,additionalregulationneededaspenetrationofrenewablesincreasedrangedfrom~400MW(~40GWrenewablecapacity)to1500MW(~100GWofrenewablecapacity)Ingeneral,allthesimulationsofchallengingdaysrevealedsuccessfuloperationofthePJMreal-timemarket.CyclingofconventionalgenerationdoescauseanincreasesinemissionsproducedandVOMcostonageneratorbasis,butsocietalbenefitofincreasedrenewablepenetrationoutweighstheimpactSystemSecurityConsiderationswithHigherPenetrationofRenewables接纳高比例可再生能源对系统安全性方面的考虑

21MitigationMeasures–GovernorResponse(FrequencyDroop)fromWindPlants解决措施-风电的频率响应WinterLowLoad–HighWECCWindCase–ExtremeMinimumSpinningReservesApproximately41%ofalltheWTGsinWECCareprovidedwithstandard5%droop,36mHzdeadbandgovernors.

Thisconditionaddsatotalof1812MWofheadroom.PrimaryfrequencyresponsefromwindgenerationhasthepotentialtogreatlyimprovesystemfrequencyperformanceoftheentireWECCgrid.TheCaliforniacontributiontofrequencyresponsegoesfromanunacceptable152MW/0.1Hztoahealthy258MW/0.1Hz.allofthetype3windturbinemachines,withatotalpoweroutputof14600MW(outofatotalof18094MWwindforthecase)areassumedtohaveaninertialcontrol.Theabilitytotuneinertialcontrolspresentsanopportunitytoimprovesystemperformance.22MitigationMeasures–InertialResponseFromWindPlant解决措施-风电的惯性响应WinterLowLoad–HighWECCWindcaseStrategicItemsforDiscussion探讨话题GlobalRenewableCodes&StandardsDevelopment全球可再生能源标准的发展CaliforniaISOInterconnectionRequirementsforVariableEnergyResourcesISO-NETechnicalRequirementsforWindInterconnection&IntegrationNERCStandardsDraftingandTaskForcesIntegrationofVariableGenerationTaskForce(IVGTF)EssentialReliabilityServicesTaskForce(ERSTF)GeneratorVerificationStandardsDraftingTeam(GVSDT)InternationalOntarioIESOAmendedMarketRulesforGenerationFacilitiesChineseStatePowerGridTechnicalCodeforWindInterconnectionIndianCERCElectricityGridCodeforWindGermanFGWTechnicalGuidelinesforWindEnergyAustralianEnergyMarketOperator(AEMO)GuidelinesforWindEnergyFERCnowmandatesthatallnewreliabilitystandardsaddressVERRenewableEnergyIntegrationStudies

可再生能源消纳研究KeyRecommendations主要建议Improvestrategiesforgridoperationtoaddressgridreliability改善运行策略Forecasting预测Increasecoordinationbetweencontrolareas调度区域的合作和协调Drivedeploymentofgrid-friendlyrenewablesandflexibleresources采用对电网友好的可再生能源发电技术Modifypowermarketdesigntoencourageoperationandinvestmentinflexibleresources调整机制以鼓励对灵活电源的投资以及调节能力的发挥Integratepowergenerationandsystemplanningstrategies电网和电源规划的协调统一Conclusions研究结论Multiplestudieshaveshownthefeasibilityofintegrating35%wind/solar,byenergy多个研究表明接纳35%（能量比例）的风/光电是可行的Flexiblegenerationplaysanimportantrole…andhasmanyaspects;eachofwhichneedseconomicsignals灵活电源非常重要…包含多个方面Newmarketproductsholdpromise:新的市场机制Energyimbalancemarket15minEnergy;withnegativepricesignals10minSpin&Non-Spin;withdemandresponse105minFrequencyRegulation;includingmileagepayment;asymmetric(separate)up/down5CapacitymarketforflexibilityAmechanismthatrewardsflexiblegenerationisthekeytoensureadequateflexiblecapacityneededforintegratingrenewables需要一个激励灵活电源的机制，这对消纳高比例可再生能源所需的系统调节能力非常重要Theefficiencyofflexiblegenerationisimportantforeconomicsystemoperation灵活电源的效率对系统的经济运行很重要

Flexibilityofgassupplymaybecriticalinsomeplaces某些情况下燃气的灵活供应也很重要Newproducts,servicesandcooperativearrangementsarecriticaltoexpansion…therearemanymechanismstocreateeconomicsignals新的服务和机制非常重要Soundpolicydevelopmentstrikesacriticalbalancebetweenthelevelofregulatoryrequirements,economicincentivesandsystemiccost科学的政策设计对于监管、经济激励和系统的整体运行费用之间的平衡至关重要G