作文argument体系中的题目分析

5,159& 5.ThefollowingappearedinalettertotheeditoroftheBalmerIslandGazette."OnBalmerIsland,wheremopedsserveasapopularformoftransportation,thepopulationincreasesto100,000duringthesummermonths.Toreducethenumberofaccidentsinvolvingmopedsandpedestrians,thetowncouncilofBalmerIslandshouldlimitthenumberofmopedsrentedbytheisland'smopedrentalcompaniesfrom50perdayto25perdayduringthesummerseason.Bylimitingthenumberofrentals,thetowncouncilwillattainthe50percentannualreductioninmopedaccidentsthatwasachievedlastyearontheneighboringislandofSeaville,whenSeaville'stowncouncilen similarlimitsonmopedrentals."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatquestionswouldneedtobeansweredinordertodecidewhetherthe mendationislikelytohavethepredictedresult.Besuretoex inhowtheanswerstothesequestionswouldhelptoevaluate 步骤+摩托车是主要交通工具→到了夏天摩托假设：夏天增多的人口会造成严重的摩托车问反例：城市交通秩序好，摩托车都很职业，很守规矩，来补充：往年夏天的摩托车事故步骤：SV执行了摩托车禁令+SV的事故减少50%→是假设反例：道路拓宽；培训更严格；交通更严格；多了 步骤：SVBI成假设：两城的租赁摩托车都是主要摩托车的来源；过去两城摩托车都能够租出去反例：SV的摩托车都是租的，但是BI的摩托车都是 的都租出去了，但是BI的本来就租不到每天25辆补充：两城摩托车的主要来源；既往摩托车每天实际租赁步骤：BI成功减少夏天的事故→全年事故的减少反例：夏天路况好，人多不是事故的来源。全年事故主要来源于冬天路面结冰。而冬天车辆没减少，所以事故不会减少50%：全故数量变化表22,119,120&22.Accordingtoarecentreport,cheatingamongcollegeanduniversitystudentsisontherise.However,GrovetonCollegehassuccessfullyreducedstudentcheatingbyadoptinganhonorcode,whichcallsforstudentstoagreenottocheatintheiracademicendeavorsandtonotifyafacultymemberiftheythatothershavecheated.Groveton'shonorcoderecedasysteminwhichteacherscloselymonitoredstudents;underthatsystem,teachersreportedanaverageofthirtycasesofcheatingperyear.Inthefirstyearthehonorcodewasin ce,studentsreportedtwenty-onecasesofcheating;fiveyearslater,thisfigurehaddroppedtofourteen.Moreover,inarecentsurvey,amajorityofGrovetonstudentssaidthattheywouldbelesslikelytocheatwithanhonorcodeincethanwithout.Thus,allcollegesanduniversitiesshouldadopthonorcodessimilartoGroveton'sinordertodecreasecheatingamongstudents.老师30，学生21到14——减少反例：学生coverupthetruth,5年前2000人，5人，比率(ratio)上证明：该校学生综合素质(comprehensivequality),学校变→HC有假设：学生所说都是真反例：地点设置在自习室和馆（individualstudyroom)，都是努力学习的人,tooshametoadmitcheating,很少有人主动承认次数变多证明：的地点设置，人群类HC适合GC→HC适合所有学假设：学校学生素质相当，学校综合实力一反例：GC学生素质高，自觉性高（consciousness），其他学校都很证明：学校步骤：老师和学生 ->HC成功帮助G学校缓假设：可靠，参加考试人数没有显著下降，没有它因解释反例：学生包庇，学校人数，考试次数下降，惩罚更严：实际人数变化，参加考试准确人数，学校所采取的其它防步骤 ->HC有效减少了G假设：有代表性，中的人说的是真话，比较对象是教师监考反例：在馆做，好学生；的方法是问话，显然人们不好说自己会；如果只问是不是比没C时能是真的少，但如果是问和被老师监考比哪个少，很可能还是老师监考更好：的人群类型，的问题设步骤：HC有效减少了G的 ->HC也能减少其它学校的反例：HC是好学校，其它很多学校学生自觉性，素质等都较差：学校，学生水平32,104,105,106&32.ThefollowingappearedinamemofromaviceofQuiot"Duringthepastyear,QuiotManufacturinghad30percentmoreon-the-jobaccidentsthanatthenearbyPanoplyIndustriesnt,wheretheworkshiftsareonehourshorterthanours.Expertssaythatsignificantcontributingfactorsinmanyon-the-jobaccidentsarefatigueandsleepdeprivationamongworkers.Therefore,toreducethenumberofon-the-jobaccidentsatQuiotandtherebyincreaseproductivity,weshouldshorteneachofourthreeworkshiftsbyonehoursothatemployeeswillgetadequateamountsofsleep."QIPI率高30%→QIPI故多假设：QIPI反例：QIPI（scale)，QI人数130，总人数13000；PI故人数100，总人数1000证明：QIPI规PI息比QIQI疲假设:PIQIpowerof反例：PI天312h，QI天16h，PI累证明：PIQI长，压力程度（pressure)假设：无它因导致事反例：管理不当（poormanagement)，安全意识不够（safety证明步骤：多30%事故->QP安全记录差反例：Q ，P是步骤：QP每班次时间长1h->Q的员工更疲劳反例：P班次 35,52,128& 35.ThefollowingappearedinaletterfromtheowneroftheSunnysideTowersapartmentcomplextoits"Onemonthago,alltheshowerheadsinthefirstthreebuildingsoftheSunnysideTowerscomplexweremodifiedtorestrict umwaterflowtoone-thirdofwhatitusedtobe.Althoughactualreadingsofwaterusagebeforeandaftertheadjustmentarenotyetavailable,thechangewillobviouslyresultinaconsiderablesavingsforSunnysideCorporation,sincethecorporationmustpayforwatereachmonth.Exceptforafewcom intsaboutlowwaterpressure,noproblemswithshowershavebeenreportedsincetheadjustment.IpredictthatmodifyingshowerheadstorestrictwaterflowthroughoutalltwelvebuildingsintheSunnysideTowerscomplexwillincreaseourprofitsevenmoreWritearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatquestionswouldneedtobeansweredinordertodecidewhetherthepredictionandtheargumentonwhichitisbasedarereasonable.Besuretoex howtheanswerstothesequestionswouldhelptoevaluatetheprediction.步骤：公司主要付水钱->节水带来假设：人们用水时间没有显著增加，先前水压使用接近最大值。反例：实际上，人们使用淋浴时间更长；实际上，本身最大水压就远达不到水龙头的最大出水量的1/3：等到水表读数：人们的满意度，楼里人数变步骤：这三个楼成功假设：各个楼类似反例：其它楼高很多，本来水压就不足45&45.ThefollowingispartofamemorandumfromtheofHumanaUniversity."LastyearthenumberofstudentswhoenrolledinonlinedegreeprogramsofferedbynearbyOmniUniversityincreasedby50percent.Duringthesameyear,Omnishowedasignificantdecreasefromprioryearsinexpendituresfordormitoryandclassroomspace,mostlikelybecauseinstructionintheonlineprogramstakesceviatheInternet.Incontrast,overthepastthreeyears,enrollmentatHumanaUniversityhasfailedtogrow,andthecostofmaintainingbuildingshasincreasedalongwithourbudgetdeficit.Toaddresstheseproblems,HumanaUniversitywillbeginimmediaytocreateandactivelypromoteonlinedegreeprogramslikethoseatOmni.WepredictthatinstitutingtheseonlinedegreeprogramswillhelpHumanabothincreaseitstotalenrollmentandsolveitsbudgetproblems."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatquestionswouldneedtobeansweredinordertodecidewhetherthepredictionandtheargumentonwhichitisbasedarereasonable.Besuretoexinhowtheanswerstothesequestionswouldhelptoevaluatetheprediction. 招生增多，房屋开支减少→OU招生增多，财政变假设：人数的变化能体现总学生人数的变化；房屋开支决定性反例：吞掉了实体课堂的学生，而实体课堂，导致学：实体课堂学生数量变化，总收入的变步骤：OU开了 好→OU的 假设反例：NB老师，改善了校舍条件 升步骤：OUHU成功反例：OU是文科，适合网上上；HU是理工科，需要做实验，不59.ThefollowingappearedinamemofromtheofBowerBuilders,a constructsnew"Anationwidesurveyrevealsthatthetwomost-desiredhomefeaturesarealargefamilyroomandalarge,well-appointedkitchen.AnumberofhomesinourareabuiltbyourcompetitorDomusConstructionhavesuchfeaturesandhavesoldmuchfasterandatsignificantlyhigherpricesthanthenationalaverage.Toboostsalesandprofits,weshouldincreasethesizeofthefamilyroomsandkitchensinallthehomeswebuildandshouldmakestate-of-the-artkitchensastandardfeature.Moreover,ourlargerfamilyroomsandkitchenscancomeattheexpenseofthediningroom,sincemanyofourrecentbuyerssaytheydonotneedaseparatediningroomforfamilymeals."Writearesponseinwhichyouexaminethestatedand/orunstatedassumptionsoftheargument.Besuretoex inhowtheargumentdependsontheseassumptionsandwhattheimplicationsarefortheargumentiftheassumptionsproveunwarranted.步骤：→本地人也喜欢这种屋子假设：人的房屋需要相似的：本地步骤：DC的屋子卖得快卖得贵于 平均值→DC屋子的这两假设反例：整个这个城市房地产就很热；DC的房子地段好；DC的售步骤：DC→我们要把所有的房子的厨房和起居室变大并配备的设备假设：配套齐全就意味着设备最先进；所有顾客都需要这些特点；我们的房子已有的起居室不够大反例：很多顾客根本不做饭；多样化的顾客群体；起居室已步骤：有很多最近的顾客表示不需要厨房和餐厅独立→可以把独假设：这些顾客有代表反例：的顾客非常需要餐厅和厨房分开，因为他们做中餐，油烟太大：更广阔的，看看人们是否真的不在意独立餐65.WhenStanleyParkfirstopened,itwasthelargest,mostheavilyusedpublicparkintown.Itisstillthelargestpark,butitisnolongerheavilyused.camerasmountedinthepark'sparkinglotslastmonthrevealedthepark'sdropinpopularity:therecordingsshowedanaverageofonly50carsperday.Incontrast,tinyCarltonParkintheheartofthebusinessdistrictisvisitedbymorethan150peopleonatypicalweekday.AnobviousdifferenceisthatCarltonPark,unlikeStanleyPark,providesampleseating.Thus,ifStanleyParkisevertobeaspopularwithourcitizensasCarltonPark,thetownwillobviouslyneedtoprovidemorebenches,therebyconvertingsomeoftheunusedopenareasintospacessuitableforsocializing.Writearesponseinwhichyouexaminethestatedand/orunstatedassumptionsoftheargument.Besuretoexinhowtheargumentdependsontheseassumptionsandwhattheimplicationsarefortheargumentiftheassumptionsproveunwarranted.步骤 显示停车场每天50量车+CP每天150人→CP假设：覆盖全面；人们开车去；车都停在停车场；一个车里不反例：就一 ；SP周围是步行街；停车场小；都是巴步骤：SP不如CPCP→长凳CP火反例： ；环境好；居民区步骤：CP长凳使其SP长凳也能使其火假设：SP座位不足反例：SP草坪多，适合坐；CP的目的是让人休息，需要长SP是一个运动场居多的公园，人们去不是为了坐，而是为了运：两个公园功能77&77.Thefollowing mendationappearedinamemofromthemayorofthetownofHopewell."Twoyearsago,thenearbytownofOceanViewbuiltanewmunicipalgolfcourseandresortho.Duringthepasttwoyears,tourisminOceanViewhasincreased,newbusinesseshaveopenedthere,andOceanView'staxrevenueshaverisenby30percent.Therefore,thebestwaytoimproveHopewell'seconomy—andgenerateadditionaltaxrevenues—istobuildagolfcourseandresorthosimilartothoseinOceanView."Writearesponseinwhichyouexaminethestatedand/orunstatedassumptionsoftheargument.Besuretoex inhowtheargumentdependsontheseassumptionsandwhattheimplicationsarefortheargumentiftheassumptionsproveunwarranted.步骤：旅游业增长，新店开张 增长→OV经济发假设：旅游业增长对整个经济影响大；老店没有得；税率反驳：旅游业小，增长也不多；老店倒得更厉害；税率大幅度提高，以后怎么都会下降步骤：OV建了宾馆和球场之后经济发展OV是因为建了宾馆和假设反例：环境治理；国家经济环境变好；交通步骤：OV因为建了宾HW建了宾馆和球场能假设：两城的产业结反驳：OV是旅游城市，配套设施不足，建了之后能大幅吸引游客；HW是内陆工业城市，污染严重，本来也不会有游客来。78,114,116&78.Thefollowingappearedinamemofromtheviceofafooddistribution withfoodstoragewarehousesinseveral"Recently,wesignedacontractwiththeFly-AwayPestControltoprovidepestcontrolservicesatourfast-foodwarehouseinPalmCity,butlastmonthwediscoveredthatover$20,000worthoffoodtherehadbeendestroyedbypestdamage.Meanwhile,theBuzzoffPestControl,whichwehaveusedformanyyears,toserviceourwarehouseinWintervale,andlastmonthonly$10,000worthofthefoodstoredtherehadbeendestroyedbypestdamage.EventhoughthepricechargedbyFly-Awayisconsiderablylower,ourbestmeansofsavingmoneyistoreturntoBuzzoffforallourpestcontrolservices."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentandexinhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.步骤：PC2wWV1wPC损失更反例：PC损失比例更低步骤：PCPCFA管，WVBOFA造PC的损失步骤：FA造成了PC→BO假设：BO更高的费用没有超过虫灾中剩下的钱；FA不会变得更反例：BO手续费过高；FA之前不适应，以后就更好；一FA都表现更好，只有这一个月97.Thefollowingappearedinane-mailsentbythemarketingdirectoroftheClassicalShakespeareTheatreofBardville."Overthepasttenyears,therehasbeena20percentdeclineinthesizeoftheaverageaudienceatClassicalShakespeareTheatreproductions.Inspiteofincreasedadvertising,weareattractingfewerandfewerpeopletoourshows,causingourprofitstodecreasesignificantly.Wemusttakeactiontoattractnewaudiencemembers.Thebestwaytodosoisbyinstitutinga'ShakespeareinthePark'programthissummer.TwoyearsagothenearbyAvonRepertorystarteda ysinthePark'program,anditshaveincreased10percentsincethen.Ifwestarta'ShakespeareinthePark'program,wecanpredictthatourprofitswillincrease,too."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatquestionswouldneedtobeansweredinordertodecidewhetherthe mendationislikelytohavethepredictedresult.Besuretoexinhowtheanswerstothesequestionswouldhelptoevaluatethe 步骤20%→票房变差反例：场数多，而场地小，价钱步骤：ARC搞公园巡演之后利润增高10ARC的巡演带来了假设反例：质量提高；票价降低；演了一些更符合观众口味的步骤：两年前ARC成功→CST巡演 反例：公园中的游客文化水平一般，如此的阳春白雪，难以吸引众丝157&157.ThefollowingappearedinamemofromthemarketingdirectorofTopDogPetStores."FiveyearsagoFishEmporiumstartedadvertisinginthemagazineExoticPetsMonthly.Theirstoressawsalesincreaseby15percentaftertheiradsbeganappearinginthemagazine.ThethreeFishEmporiumstoresinGulfCitysawanevengreaterincreasethanthat.BecauseTopDogPetStoresisbasedinGulfCity,itseemsclearthatweshouldstart cingourownadsinExoticPetsMonthly.Ifwedoso,wewillbesuretoreversetherecenttrendofdecliningsalesandstartmakingaprofitagain."Writearesponseinwhichyouexaminethestatedand/orunstatedassumptionsoftheargument.Besuretoex inhowtheargumentdependsontheseassumptionsandwhattheimplicationsarefortheargumentiftheassumptionsproveunwarranted.步骤15%→卖鱼的赚钱反例：打花了暴多钱；通货膨 之后赚钱→打 反例：卖了更好看的鱼；降价促销；城市有了养鱼步骤：五年前 导致卖鱼赚钱→ 导致卖狗赚假设：这个对于鱼和狗的者相似；自己店知名度和那个鱼店之前相似；五年来没有发生显著的变化反例：很可能这个狗店已经很知名了，打不会增加；很可能那本的主要阅读人群是养鱼的，需要寻找更好的平台来打狗；大幅下降25,100,102&25.Thefollowingwaswrittenasapartofanapplicationforasmall-businessloanbyagroupofdevelopersinthecityofMonroe."AjazzmusicclubinMonroewouldbeatremendouslyprofitableenterprise.Currently,thenearestjazzclubis65 away;thus,theproposednewjazzclubinMonroe,theC-Note,wouldhavethelocalmarketalltoitself.Plus,jazzisextremelypopularinMonroe:over100,000peopleattendedMonroe'sannualjazzfestivallastsummer;severalwell-knownjazzmusiciansliveinMonroe;andthehighest-ratedradioprograminMonroeis'JazzNightly,'whichairseveryweeknightat7P.M.Finally,anationwidestudyindicatesthatthetypicaljazzfanspendscloseto$1,000peryearonjazzWritearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentand inhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.步骤：65m远->C会占假设：C的质量足以吸引当地的大部分受众反例：C太烂了，人们宁可舍近求远，甚至不听：C会拥有的音乐家步骤：Plus…->Jazz在M受欢假设：10万大部分是本地人，音乐家在M表演，评分能够体现受反例：绝大部分外地人，本地人不感；这几个退休了，或者在别处演出，在M住是因为M的住房环境好；可能人们都不怎么听广播：本地人比例；这几个音乐家演出的信息；整个广播的步骤 ->人们会舍得在C-N花假设 能代表M，人们会花钱在 反例：M极穷，低于平均水平；人们更愿意买唱片，不愿意：M的平均收入，Jazz粉丝的消费习6.ArcticdeerliveonislandsinCanada'sarcticregions.Theysearchforfoodbymovingovericefromislandtoislandduringthecourseoftheyear.Theirhabitatislimitedtoareaswarmenoughtosustain ntsonwhichtheyfeedandcoldenough,atleastsomeoftheyear,fortheicetocovertheseaseparatingtheislands,allowingthedeertotraveloverit.Unfortuna y,accordingtoreportsfromlocalhunters,thedeerpopulationsaredeclining.Sincethesereportscoincidewithrecentglobalwarmingtrendsthathavecausedtheseaicetomelt,wecanconcludethatthepurporteddeclineindeerpopulationsistheresultofthedeer'sbeingunabletofollowtheirage-oldmigrationpatternsacrossthefrozensea.Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentand inhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.步骤步骤法迁徙假设：全球变暖的趋势对这里有很大影步骤：冰融化+鹿少化导致鹿少反例：，食物不足，天敌多……15,51,130,131&15.ThefollowingmemorandumisfromthebusinessmanagerofHappyPancakeHouserestaurants."Recently,butterhasbeenre cedbymargarineinHappyPancakeHouserestaurantsthroughoutthesouthwesternUnitedStates.Thischange,however,hashadlittleimpactonourcustomers.Infact,onlyabout2percentofcustomershavecom indicatingthatanaverageof98peopleoutof100arehappywiththechange.Furthermore,manyservershavereportedthatanumberofcustomerswhoaskforbutterdonotcom inwhentheyaregivenmargarineinstead.Clearly,eitherthesecustomersdonotdistinguishbutterfrommargarineortheyusetheterm'butter'torefertoeitherbutterormargarine."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscussoneormorealternativeex nationsthatcouldrivaltheproposed nationandex inhowyourex nation(s)canusiblyaccountforthefactspresentedinthe步骤：2%反例：只有2%人点黄油，几乎所有都抱怨步骤：抱怨的人少：客流数量变化，回头客数量步骤：server们抱怨少假设：server可靠，有代表性反例：人们不抱怨给server，抱怨给waiter或：寻找别的信息来31.ThefollowingappearedinalettertotheeditorofParsonCity'slocalnewspaper."InourregionofTrillura,themajorityofmoneyspentontheschoolsthatmoststudentsattend—thecity-runpublicschools—comesfromtaxesthateachcityernmentcollects.Theregion'scitiesdiffer,however,inthebudgetaryprioritytheygivetopubliceducation.Forexample,bothasaproportionofitsoveralltaxrevenuesandinabsoluteterms,ParsonCityhasrecentlyspentalmosttwiceasmuchperyearasBlueCityhasforitspublicschools—eventhoughbothcitieshaveaboutthesamenumberofresidents.Clearly,ParsonCityresidents ceahighervalueonprovidingagoodeducationinpublicschoolsthanBlueCityresidentsdo."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentand inhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.假设反例：P城学生多，所以投钱多假设：两城之前的教反例：B城先前投钱很多，现在不用再投那么多了，不等于人家不：两城实际教育水平差假设：代表了反例：P城人不怎么在意教育，但是 投钱多；B城相反：民众的态度，而不是投的钱83&83.Thefollowingisalettertotheeditorofanenvironmentalmagazine."In1975awildlifecensusfoundthatthereweresevenspeciesofamphibiansinXanaduNationalPark,withabundantnumbersofeachspecies.However,in2002onlyfourspeciesofamphibianswereobservedinthepark,andthenumbersofeachspeciesweredrasticallyreduced.Therehasbeenasubstantialdeclineinthenumbersofamphibiansworldwide,andglobalpollutionofwaterandairisclearlyimplicated.ThedeclineofamphibiansinXanaduNationalPark,however,almostcertainlyhasadifferentcause:in1975,trout—whichareknowntoeatamphibianeggs—wereintroducedintothepark."Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentand inhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.步骤：1975引入鳟鱼+鳟鱼吃蛋鱼会吃这个公园两栖类假设：鳟鱼活得很好；鳟鱼和两栖类有空间交反例：鳟鱼了，不可能影响；鳟鱼和两栖类就没放入同一个区域：实际当地鳟鱼数量以及饮食习步骤：1975年的普查2002年的观察少了假设：两个的准确性相当反例：75年观察的范围广，仔细，专业，而且在夏天；02年的观：两次的详细信步骤+两栖类少鱼导致两栖类少85.InastudyofthereadinghabitsofWaymarshcitizensconductedbytheUniversityofWaymarsh,mostrespondentssaidthattheypreferredli classicsasreadingmaterial.However,asecondstudyconductedbythesameresearchersfoundthatthetypeofbookmostfrequentlycheckedoutofeachofthepubliclibrariesinWaymarshwasthemysterynovel.Therefore,itcanbeconcludedthattherespondentsinthefirststudyhadmisrepresentedtheirreadinghabits.Writearesponseinwhichyoudiscusswhatspecificevidenceisneededtoevaluatetheargumentand inhowtheevidencewouldweakenorstrengthentheargument.假设：第一群人的选反例：在书店，在学校，不能代表全程的习惯；吆喝式 ，只有对B书的人才愿意参加假设：第二次可以真实反应全城的阅读习反例：馆文学经典就少；人们最书不会借而会买……假设反例：文学经典也有mystery24,26&24.Arecentlyissuedtwenty-yearstudyonheadachessufferedbytheresidentsofMentiainvestigatedthepossibletherapeuticeffectofconsumingsalicylates.Salicylatesaremembersofthesamechemicalfamilyasaspirin,amedicineusedtotreatheadaches.Althoughmanyfoodsarenaturallyrichinsalicylates,food-processingcompaniesalsoaddsalic