企业管理-团队致胜（及时制供应方案）PPT课件教材讲义

PARTI

Challenges3WinningasaTeam团队致胜WinningasaTeamIfcomplexityandvariabilityarewhatmakesupplychainmanagementahardgametomaster,thenthebesttacticsarethosethatleadtosimplicityandstability.Indeed,mostoftheinnovationsinsupplychainmanagementoverthepast20yearshaveattemptedtobothsimplifyandstabilizetheflowofdemand,supply,andcash.Theseinnovationsincludetheextensionofjust-in-timemanufacturingtechniquesouttothesupplychain,plusavarietyofspecializedprogramsformanagingthereplenishmentofretailinventories.Unfortunately,thegainsproducedbytheseprogramshaveoftencomeattheexpenseofotherlinksinthechain,andthatdoesn'timprovethecompetitivenessofthechainasawhole.Abrieflookatgametheoryrevealswhytheseprogramsarefallingshortandpointsthewaytothewinningstrategy:integratingthemembersofthesupplychainintoasmoothlyfunctioningteambymakingsurethateverymember'swincontributestothesuccessofalltheothers.倘若供应链管理不易精通是因为其复杂性(complexity)与变异性(variability)，那么最好的战术就是设法让系统变得单纯(simplicity)与稳定(stability)。的确，在过去20年间，大部分的供应链管理创新，都在企图让需求(demand)、供应(supply)与帐款(cash)的流程可以简单，而且稳定地进行。这些创新的方法包括延伸及时制(JIT)生产技术于供应链上，以及数种管理零售存货补充的推动方案(programs)。不幸的是，这些推动方案所带来的收益常造成供应链其他连结(links)费用的增加，而无法提升整体供应链的竞争力。本章简单以「赛局理论」(gametheory)探讨，可以发现这些推动方案有所不足之原因，并指出致胜策略之道：整合供应链成员成为一个运作顺畅的团队，确保每位成员的获胜会带给其他成员的成功。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)JIThastransformedmanufacturingOfthemanyeffortstoimprovetheflowofrawmaterialsintoproductionfacilities,mosthaveinvolvedextendingthereachofthejust-in-time(JIT)manufacturingmethodupstreamtowardsuppliers.OneofthekeyelementsoftheJITapproachis

eliminatingexcessinventorythroughouttheproductionprocessbytimingthemovementofmaterialstoeachworkstationtoarrivejustatthemomenttheyareneededforthenextoperation.Thispracticeminimizesinventoriesthroughouttheproductionprocess,helpingmanufacturingcompaniesreduceholdingcosts,minimizeobsolescence,andimprovetheirreturnonassets.ThesebenefitshaveledtothewidespreadadoptionofJITthroughoutindustriesthatuserepetitiveproductiontechniques.及时制改变了制造方式在改善物料到生产设施间流程的许多努力中，常见的做法是将及时制生产方法(just-in-time(JIT)manufacturing)向上延伸至供应商端。及时制(JIT)方法的关键要素之一是，藉由排定「投料」到各工作站地时间，让物料根据下一个作业(nextoperation)所需适时地送达，以减少生产过程中多余的存货。这样的做法可以让制程中的物料存货降到最低，让生产工厂降低存货持有成本，减少老旧存货，并且改善资产报酬率。由于有这些优点，使得及时制生产方法广泛地被应用于重复性生产技术的产业中(repetitiveproductiontechniques)。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)FrequentshipmentsreducetotalinventoryOfthethreeinventoriesheldinproductionfacilities,thework-in-Process(WIP)inventoryismosteasilyreducedusingJIT.ButWIPisusuallythesmallestandleastexpensiveoftheinventories,andtacklingtheothertworequireschangingthewaysuppliersdeliverrawmaterialsandcustomersreceivefinishedgoods.Inordertobringdowntheinventoryofrawmaterials,JITproducersworkwiththeirsupplierstoswitchoverfromlargeshipmentsofmaterialsthatgotocentralreceivingfacilitiestosmall,frequentshipmentsthatgodirectlyfromtruckstothefactoryfloor(Figure3.1).Thechangeisadramaticone,oftentakingacompanyfrommonthlyordersandshipmentstomultipleshipmentsadaywithpreciselytimedarrivals.MostJITproducershaveasimilarprogramontheoutboundside,usingsmall,frequentdeliveriestominimizetheirinventoryoffinishedgoods.频率高的货件运送可以降低总存货在生产设施所持有的三种存货类型中，在制品(WIP)最容易运用及时制方法来降低存货水平。然而，在制品存货通常是其中占最小比率也花费最少的部分，不过解决另外两种存货(原物料、制成品)问题必须改变供货商交运原物料与交付顾客制成品的方式。为了降低原物料存货，及时制生产工厂与他们的供货商合作，将物料由大批量送到工厂中央物料仓库的方式，改为小批量高频度直接由卡车送到生产在线(factoryfloor)的方式(见图3.1)。这是个相当巨大的改变，通常会将公司的月订单／月交货模式改变为严格到货时间要求之1日数次配送模式。大部分及时制生产工厂对于外向物流(outboundlogistics)也有类似做法，即采用小批量高频度的配送以降低制成品存货水平。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)Just-in-TimeSupplyJITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)JITrequiresclosepartnershipswithsuppliersAssoonasmanufacturersbegintomakethesekindsofchanges.JITquicklyexpandsfromaproductioninitiativetoamuchbroaderprogramthatrequiressystematicchangesinsupplychainmanagement.Toyota,thecompanythatpioneeredtheJITmethodinthe1970s,waskeenlyawareofthisaspectofitsprogram,anditworkedcloselywithitssupplierstoconverttheiroperationstoJITaswell,preciselycoordinatingtheflowofgoodsfromsupplierstoproductionplants.Inordertosupportthecloserelationshiprequiredbythisnewkindofproduction,ToyotausedauniquelyJapaneseformofjointpartnership,calledakeiretsu,withitskeysuppliers.InToyota'scase,thekeiretsuinvolvedtakinga20to50equitypositionineachsupplierandreplacing20ofitskeyexecutiveswithToyotapersonnel.及时制要求紧密的供货商伙伴关系在制造厂陆续进行这些改变后，及时制很快地由生产推动方案扩展到更大范围的推动方案，要求供应链管理的系统性变革。丰田公司(Toyota)，在1970年代发展出及时制，很清楚及时制的特性，并紧密地与其上游供货商合作，将供货商作业也转变成及时制，精准地调节从供货商到生产线的物料流程。为了支持新生产方案所需的紧密关系，丰田公司(Toyota)与其主要供货商间采用了独特日本型态的联合伙伴关系(jointpartnership)，称之为企业团(keiretsu)。以丰田案例来说，「企业团」的做法涉及持有供货商20%～50%的股东权益，以丰田公司人员替换供货商20%的主要高阶主管。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)SimplerorderingreducescomplexityJITpracticesofferimportantinsightsintohowsupplychainscanbeimproved.AlthoughtheapparentfocusofJITisonreducinginventory,thetruespiritofthemethodisasystematicpursuitofquality,oneaspectofwhichiseliminatinganyunnecessarycomplexity.Inthecaseofsupplychaintransactions,thisphilosophyhasledtoamuchneededstreamliningoftheorder-shipment-paymentcycle.Insteadofaccumulatinglargeordersmixingmanydifferentkindsofmaterials,producersplacemanyordersforindividualmaterials,oftenpayingforthesematerialsondeliveryratherthanaccumulatinglumpsums.Inaddition,agreatdealofdocumentationhasbeenstrippedaway.Forexample,traditionalordersareofteneliminatedinfavorofcontinuouslyupdateddeliveryschedules,andbillingdocumentsmaybeeliminatedaltogether.OneofthegreatcontributionsofJITtosupplychainmanagementisto

provideacleardemonstrationofjusthowsimplethebasicflowscanbecome.简单订购方式降低了复杂度及时制(JIT)提供许多关于供应链如何改善的重要洞察力。虽然及时制主要着重在降低存货，但这个方法的真正精神还是在于，以系统化方法追求品质的提升，其中一个目标就是消除任何不必要的复杂性。在供应链交易的情况中，这个哲学更须要求「订购－货件运送－付款」周期(order-shipment-payment)的改善与顺畅化。取代累积大量且订购多种物料的订单方式，生产商依个别物料下不同的订单，经常收料后即付款而不会积压很久再一次支付。此外，很多文件也不再需要。例如，传统式订单常被消除，改用持续更新的配送排程表(deliveryschedules)，而此同时，帐款文件(billingdocuments)可能也不再需要。及时制方法论对于供应链管理的一个主要贡献，就是提供一个清晰的示范：基本流程可以是非常简单的。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)ConsistentperformancereducesvariabilityAlongwithreducingcomplexity,theJITphilosophyofqualityalsoseekstoreducevariabilityineverystageofproduction.Tothisend,eachoperationisanalyzed,refined,andrehearseduntilitcanbecompletedbothquicklyandconsistently.Inthecaseofsupplychains,thislevelofrigornotonlyacceleratesthemovementofgoods,italsoaddsanunprecedentedlevelofprecisiontodeliveries.Thisprecisionallowsinventoriesofrawmaterialstobereducedtoafractionoftheirnormallevelswithoutcausingshutdownsontheline.一致性绩效表现可以降低变异性除了降低复杂性外，及时制质量哲学也寻求降低各个生产阶段的变异性(variability)。为达此目标，每一项作业都要加以分析(analyzed)、修正(refined)与演练(rehearsed)，直至该作业可以快速且一致地完成。就供应链来看，这么严格的要求不仅加速货物移动的速度，也达到前所未有的交货精确度。这样的精确度使物料存货可以降低其原有水平，也不会造成「断线」(shutdownsontheline)的情形。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)JITcanmakesupplychainsfragileOfcourse,noteveryformofvariabilitycanbeeliminated,andhereinliesthedownsideofJIT:Itcanmakesupplychainssofragilethatanyinterruptionintheflowofsuppliesbringstheentirechaintoahalt.Toyotalearnedthisin1997whenafireatoneofitssuppliersshutdownToyota'sproductionlinesforanentireweek.Thefollowingyear,

strikesintwoGMpartsplantsledtotheshutdownofalmostallofthecompany'sassemblyplantswithinamatterofdays.Ayearlater,sevenDaimlerChryslerplantsandthreeGMplantswereforcedintohalf-shiftswhenfloodinginonesupplier'splantcreatedashortageofasinglepart.AftertheterroristattacksofSeptember11,2001,manyplantsintheUnitedStateshadtobeclosedduetobreakdownsinthetransportationsystem.Ford,forexample,shutdownfiveNorthAmericanplantsduetopartsshortages,manyofthemduetodelaysinbringingtrucksacrosstheCanadianborder.及时制可能会使供应链更脆弱当然，不是所有变异性的型态都可以被消除，及时制(JIT)的弱点在于：及时制可能会让供应链变得非常脆弱，以致于当物品供应流程中发生任何干扰时，整个供应链会陷于停摆。1997年，丰田公司(Toyota)在一次发生在其供货商的火灾中学到教训，当时让丰田公司生产线不得不停工整个星期。次年，两个通用汽车(GM)零件工厂的罢工事件在几天内几乎使所有公司组装厂停摆。随即1年后，七个戴姆勒克赖斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)工厂与三个通用汽车工厂，因一个供货商遭洪水侵袭，无法供应某种零件而被迫以半天班(half-shifts)的方式生产。在2001年911恐怖攻击事件之后，因运输系统的瘫痪，许多美国工厂都必须停工。例如，福特汽车(Ford)，因零件在通过加拿大边境时发生延迟而造成短缺，必须暂时关闭五个北美的工厂。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)ManufacturersarenowcautiousaboutJITShutdownssuchasthesecanquicklywipeoutthesavingsassociatedwithreducedinventorylevels.Foralargemanufacturer,havingaplantshutdowncancostasmuchas$10,000aminute.Giventhiskindoffinancialimpact,manyfirmsthatadoptedJITwholeheartedlyarenowrethinkingtheirpositionandtakingamoreconservativeapproach.Honda,forone,nowhasapolicyofmaintainingdualsuppliersforallitsrawmaterials.Ford,whilereaffirmingitscommitmenttoitsJITprograminthewakeoftheterroristattacks,immediatelybegandevelopingplanstostockpileenginesandotherkeypartsatsomeU.S.plants.制造商现在非常谨慎采用及时制类此断线停工状况可以很快地侵蚀掉降低存货水平所带来的效益。对大型制造商而言，停工所带来的损失可以高达1分钟1万美元。由于有这样的财务面冲击，许多热切全心导入及时制的企业，现在开始重新省思他们的定位，并且采用一种较保守的对应方式。本田汽车(Honda)，其申一例，现在采用双供货商政策以确保物料的供应无虞。福特汽车虽在恐怖攻击后仍重申贯彻及时制，不过却开始计划在数个美国工厂储备引擎与一些关键零组件。JITSupplyPrograms(及时制供应方案)SimplicityandconsistencyremainkeygoalsEvenwithappropriateriskmanagement,JITisn'ttherightapproachforeverysupplychain.Itdoesn'tworkinjobshops,whichdonotuseproductionlines,andit'snotrelevanttoprocessmanufacturing.Evenwithinitsnaturaldomain,repetitiveproduction,it'snotagoodchoiceforlow-volumeproductsorforproductswithuncertaindemand.Butthesearelimitations,notdefects;fortherightkindofproductionenvironment,JITcanleadtodramaticimprovements.

Moreimportant,however,isthewaytheJITeffortillustrateshowmuchcanbedonetoreducecomplexityandvariabilityinsupplychains.JIT'semphasisonsimplicityandconsistencycanbeusedtoadvantageateverylinkofthechain,regardlessofwhetherotheraspectsofthetechniqueareemployed.简单化与一致化仍为主要目标即使有适当的风险管理机制，及时制不见得适用于所有的供应链。它并不适合包件生产模式(jobshops)，这种模式是没有生产线的；它也不适用于程序型生产模式(processmanufacturing)。即使在其最适用的领域──重复生产模式(repetitiveproduction)上，它也不适用于少量或不确定性高的产品。但这些只是限制，不能说是缺点。用对生产环境的话，及时制可以带来可观的改善。然而，更重要的是，投入及时制后所显示大幅降低供应链复杂性与变异性所产生的效果。无论是否要使用及时制的其他特色，及时制在简单化(simplicity)与一致化(consistency)上之重视，即可为供应链的每个连结带来优势。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)RetailreplenishmentisatoughproblemThesecondmajorclassofsupplychainprogramsdealswiththedistributionside,andisconcernedwithreplenishingretailinventoriesHistorically,thelinkbetweenretailstoresandtheirimmediatesuppliershasbeenadifficultjunctureinthesupplychain.Inthepast,retailinventoriesweremanagedbyindependentstoreowners,whooftenlackedsophisticatedtoolsforforecastingdemandandplanningreplenishment.Yetthisispreciselythepointinthechainthatcanbethehardesttomanagebecauseitisthefirstpointtofeeltheimpactofchangingconsumerpreferences.Itisalsothepointwherethechainbecomesvisibletotheconsumer,soit'scriticaltomanageitwell.Ifthedesiredproductisn'tontheshelfwhenaconsumerwalksintobuyit,eventhemostperfectsequenceofsupplyoperationsisafailure.零售补货是个困难的问题第二类主要的供应链方案处理的是配销端的活动，是关于补充零售存货的机制。从历史角度来看，零售店与他们直接供货商的‘连结，始终是供应链中的一个问题点。过去，零售存货是由个别独立的店铺所控管，他们通常缺乏可协助预测需求与规划补货的精良工具。不过，这也可能是供应链中最难以管理的设施点，因为零售店是位处于感受顾客偏好改变影响的第一个据点。零售店也是消费者直接接触供应链的那个设施据点，因此，妥善管理零售点是很重要的工作。如果顾客走进店来想要购买时，需要的产品却不在货架上，那即便是拥有最完美的供应作业也是个失败。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)EarlyeffortsshiftedcontrolofinventoryThefirstgenerationofretailreplenishmentprogramswasbasedonshiftingthecontrolofinventories(Figure3.2).Inthetraditionalarrangement,retailersmanagetheirowninventoriesandreplenishthemastheyseefit.Theproblemwiththisarrangementisthatproducersareofteninabetterpositionthanretailerstotrackemergingpatternsindemand.Inaddition,producerscanremovecostanduncertaintyfromthislinkinthechainbycentralizingcontrolofthereplenishmentprocess.Onewaytoleveragetheseadvantagesis

consignment,inwhichproducersretainbothownershipandcontroloverinventoriesoftheirproductsataretailer'ssite.Consignmenthasprovedtobeaneffectivetoolforsellingproductsthatretailersmightnotbewillingtocarryonconventionalterms,butit'snotthefirstchoiceforproducersbecausetheyhavetowaitlongerbeforetheygetpaidfortheirproducts.早期努力着重于存货控制权的移转第一代的零售补货方案着重在存货控制权的移转(见图3.2)。传统做法是，零售商管理自己的存货，并且根据他们认为的适合数量来补货。这种做法的问题是，生产者往往处在优于零售商的位置来追踪正在浮现的需求型态。此外，生产者可藉由补货程序之中央控制方式来移除连结上的成本与不确定性。一个平衡这些优势的方法是寄售(consignment)，即委托生产者保有商品的所有权与控制零售端的存货。对一些零售商可能不愿意以传统交易条款销售的商品，供货商／生产者寄售的做法已经被证实是个有效的方式。不过这种做法对生产者而言，不会是第一个选择方案，因为他必须等候更长的时间来取得货款。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)EarlyeffortsshiftedcontrolofinventoryInventoryManagementRelationshipsRetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)transfersownershipbutnotcontrolAmorerecentdevelopment,vendor-managedinventory(VMI),isshowninthemiddlerowofFigure3.2.TheinnovativeaspectofVMIisthewayitseparatescontrolfromownership,bothofwhichusuallytransferatthesametime.

InVMI,aproducerreceivescontinuousupdatesonaretailer'sinventorylevelandreplenishesitasneeded,withtheretailertakingownershipofthegoodsondelivery.Thisgivesproducersbettervisibilityofsalesoftheirproducts,helpingthemanticipatedemandandbetterplansupply.

TheretailersbenefitbecausetheynolongerhavetotrackinventorylevelsorplaceordersforproductsunderaVMIprogram.Theyalsosavemoneybecausetheyusuallyneedlessinventory,sometimesaslittleashalfofwhattheywouldotherwisekeepinstock.VMI移转的是所有权但不是控制权最近的一个发展为供货商管理存货(vendor-managedinventory,VMI)方案，参考图3.2的中间部分。一般而言，所有权与控制权的移转是同时发生的，VMI的创新观点则是将所有权与控制权分开来处理。VMI的做法是，生产商接收到零售商存货状况的连续更新信息，并且负责补充零售商所需；而零售商则在产品配交给顾客时取得所有权。这样的做法让生产商可以更清楚地掌握产品的销售状况，协助他们预测需求并做好供应的规划。而零售商则因无须追踪存货水平与无须执行订货作业而获益。双方也节省了成本，因为需要的存货通常较少，有时甚至双方持有存货为原来一半的水平。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)QuickresponseappliesJITtotheretaillinkInadditiontoVMI,severalotherprogramshavebeendevelopedtosmooththeflowofgoodsthroughretailstores.Oneoftheearliestwasthequickresponse(QR)program,aneffortonthepartoftheapparelindustryinthe1980stocombinesomeofthetechniquesofJITwithtechnologiesformonitoringinventorylevelsinrealtime.AsshowninFigure3.3,electronicpointofsale(POS)systemsautomaticallycaptureddataaboutclothingsalesastheyoccurred,thentransmittedthisdatatoproducersusingelectronicdatainterchange(EDI)connections.Producersrespondedwithdailyshipmentsofpre-taggeditemsthatcouldgodirectlyfromtheirtruckstothesellingfloor.快速响应将及时制应用在零售连结上除了供货商管理存货(VMII)之外；还有一些已经发展出来的方案，可以让货物流通到零售店的过程更为顺畅。早期方法之一就是快速响应(quickresponse,QR)，为1980年代服饰业所提出，致力于结合及时制(JIT)方法与实时监控存货状况的技术。如图3.3所示，当衣服销售发生时，电子销售时点(electronicpointofsale,POS)系统自动撷取销售数据，然后以电子资料交换(electronicdatainterchange,EDI)方式传送电子数据给生产商。生产商将预先贴好卷标的产品，以每日出货的方式由卡车直接配送至销售场所。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)QuickresponseappliesJITtotheretaillinkTheQuickResponseProgram

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)ContinuousreplenishmentaddedVMIInthelate1980s,theapparelindustryrolledoutanextensionoftheQRprogramknownascontinuousreplenishment(CR).AsshowninFigure3.4,thisprogramincorporatedVMIforbetterinventorycontrol,anditintroducedjointforecastingsothatproducersandretailerscouldpooltheirunderstandingofconsumerdemandtobetterpredictfuturesales.Anotherimportantaspectofthisprogramwasthatareplenishmentagreementactedasastandingpurchasecommitment.Thisallowedmembersoftheprogramtoeliminateindividualpurchaseordersaltogether,furtherstreamliningthereplenishmentprocess.持续补货加入VMI机制在1980年代后期，服饰产业进一步延伸QR的做法成为持续补货(continuousreplenishment,CR)。如图3.4所示，持续补货结合了VMI机制以提供更好的存货管理，它更导入联合预测(jointforecasting)方法，让生产商与零售商可以整合对于顾客需求的了解，以更准确预测未来的销售额。这个方案的另一个要点是，一个持续补货协议犹如一项有效的采购承诺(standingpurchasecommitment)。这可以让成员间均去除所有的个别订单，并进一步使补货程序顺畅化。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)ContinuousreplenishmentaddedVMIRetailReplenishmentPrograms

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)ECRaddedcategorymanagementIn1993,thegroceryindustrylauncheditsownversionofcontinuousreplenishment,callingittheefficientconsumerresponse(ECR)program.

ECR'smajorcontributionwastheadditionofcategorymanagement,whichorganizespromotionandreplenishmentactivitiesaroundgroupsofproductsthatconsumersviewasroughlyequivalentinsatisfyingtheirneeds.Thisadditionhelpsgrocerystoresdeterminethebestmixofproductstoputontheirshelvestomakesuretheircustomers‘needsaremetevenifthereareoccasionalshortages.Thisprogramalsoencouragestheuseofactivity-basedcosting(describedinChapter9)todeterminetheprofitabilityofeachproductcategory.有效消费者响应加入品类管理机制1993年，日用品杂货产业(thegroceryindustry)开启该产业自己版本的持续补货系统，也就是所谓的有效消费者响应(efficientConsumerresponse,ECR)阵ECR的主要贡献在于加入品类管理(categorymanagement)机制，可以组织消费者视为同类产品的促销与补货活动。这个附加功能让日用品杂货产业可以决定上架的最佳产品组合，即使有时部分产品发生缺货仍可以确保顾客的需求得以满足。这个方案也促成作业基础成本制之应用(参照第9章)，以决定每一产品类别的获利能力。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)programsattackcomplexityandvariabilityLiketheJITprogramsdescribedearlier,retailreplenishmentprogramsreflectacontinuingefforttosimplifyandstabilizesupplychainflows.Forexample,theeliminationofordersincontinuousreplenishmentremovedamajorsourceoftimeandcostthataddednovaluetotheendconsumer.Theseprogramsalsopioneeredimportanttechniquesforcopingwithvariability,includingsomethataren'temployedintheJITeffort.Mostnotably,theuseofrealtimedataonsalesallowsretailerstorespondquicklytovariationsinconsumerbuyingpatterns,andtheadditionofjointforecastingallowsretailerstoprepareforsomeoftheseshiftsbeforetheyhitthestores.这些方案均在对付复杂性与变异性如前述及时制(JIT)般，零售补货方案反映出简化与稳定供应链流程的持续努力。例如，持续补货方案消除订单之举，移除了无法增加终端顾客价值的时间与成本的一个主要来源。这些方案也开启一些应付变异性的重要技术，包括一些及时制(JIT)所未采用的技术。最显著的是，销售资料实时运用可以让零售商快速响应顾客购买型态的变动，并且如再加上联合预测，可以让零售商在顾客购买型态变动对商店造成冲击之前，预先做好准备。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)CPFRisthemostambitiousprogramyetThemostambitiousreplenishmentprogramtodateiscollaborativeplanning,forecasting,andreplenishment(CPFR),amulti-industryeffortthatwasformalizedin1998(Figure3.5).AlthoughCPFRisnotadirectextensionofanyoftheprecedingprograms,itdrawsontheexperiencegainedwithallthree.Beingthefirstclean-sheetdesignsincethecommercializationoftheInternet,

CPFRabandonsEDIandprivatenetworksinfavorofInternetcommunication.

Inadditiontothedirectcommunicationofrealtimedata,tradingpartnersusecentralizedinformationserverstoviewandupdatesharedplansandforecasts.CPFR是迄今企图心最大的方案迄今最具企图心的补货方案是协同规划、预测与补货(collaborativeplanning,forecasting,andreplenishment,CPFR)，是1998年形成的一个跨产业力量(见图3.5)。虽然CPFR并不是任一前述系统的直接延伸，但是它吸取所有三者之经验(allthree：JIT,QR,ECR)。因为是从因特网商用化后的第一个全新设计，协作规划、舍弃电子数据交换(EDI)与私有网络，而采用因特网沟通技术。除使用实时数据进行直接通讯外，商业伙伴间采用中央服务器存放可供检视及更新的共享计划与预测信息。

RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)CPFRisthemostambitiousprogramyetTheCPFERProgramRetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售补货方)AdoptionofCPFRhasjustbegunInshort,theCPPRprogramreliesonadvanced,Internet-basedtoolstopoolinformationaboutdemandandsupply,allowingtradingpartnerstocoordinatetheirinventorydecisionsandsmooththeflowofgoodsacrossthechain.Theuseofsuchtoolsoffersimportantadvantages,butitalsorequirescompaniestomakesubstantialinvestmentsinnewtechnologies.Anotherobstacleiscultural:CPFRrequirescompaniestosharehighlydetailedinformationabouttheiroperations,andmanyarereluctanttodothat.CPFRisbeginningtowinconverts,butit'stoosoontotellhowwidelytheprogramwillbeembraced.CPFR之采纳才刚开始简言之，CPFR依赖先进、以因特网为根基的工具管理供需信息，使交易伙伴间可以协调存货决策，并让供应链中的商品流程更为平顺。这类工具之应用提供了重要的优势，但是它也需要耗费巨额投资在新技术的引进上；另外一个障碍是文化。CPFR要求企业问分享非常详细的作业信息，而很多企业不愿意这样做。CPFR已逐渐赢得一些支持者，但目前还太早去预测究竟这个方案是否会被广为采纳。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的问题)AlltheprogramshavedeclaredvictoryAlloftheprogramsdescribedinthischapterwereintroducedwithgreatfanfare,andtherearesolidstatisticstodemonstratethateachofthemhassucceededinreducinginventoriesandacceleratingtheflowofgoodsacrossthechain.Theseglowingreviewsarebolsteredbycontinuingreportsinthebusinesspressabouttheremarkableeconomiesproducedoverthepasttwodecadesthroughtherelentlessreductionofinventory.There'sjustoneproblemwiththese’impressiveresults:Theymaynotbereal.Lastyear,ateamofresearchersatOhioStateUniversityconductedacomprehensiveanalysisoftheinventorylevelsreportedbyU.S.corporationsoverthepast20years,andtheyreachedastartlingconclusion:TheGreatInventoryReductionofthelatetwentiethcenturyneverhappened.所有方案均宣称获胜本章描述的所有方案均在很高的期望下被引进产业，而且也有具体统计数字显示，每个方案均成功地在供应链中降低存货与加速商品的流动。这些绚烂的回顾，更在许多商业媒体持续不断报导过去20年间，竭尽力量消减存货产生的显著经济效益所强化。这些令人惊讶的成果却有一个问题──成果可能是不真实的。去年，俄亥俄州立大学(OhioStateUniversity)的一个研究团队，针对美国企业过去20年的存货水平变化进行一次广泛分析时，得到一个令人吃惊的结论：20世纪末期的存货大消减(theGreatInventoryReduction)根本没有发生！TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的问题)Theprogramsaren’treducinginventoryThestudydidrevealamodestoveralldeclineintotalinventorysince1980,butmostofthatwasduetoasmallnumberofindustriesthatmadestructuralchangesintheirsupplychains.Forexample,theeliminationofdistributorsandretailersinthedirectsalesmodelperfectedbyDell,togetherwithotheradvancedsupplychaintechniques,allowedthecomputerindustrytocutitstotalinventoriesinhalfoverthe20-yearperiod.Thesearetrulyimpressivegains,andtheyhavecontributedtothedramaticreductionsinpriceswithinthisindustry.Butforotherindustries,includingthetwothathavemostardentlypursuedretailreplenishmentprograms—apparelandgrocery—inventorylevelshaveremainedabsolutelyflatoverthelifeofthoseprograms.所有方案均未能降低存货这项研究的确显示，从1980年以来，整体存货有些微的降低，但是，这个改变多半来自于一小部分产业在供应链上之结构性改变。例如，消除配销商与零售商且被戴尔公司(Dell)完美化的直接销售模式(directsalesmodel)，以及一些其他先进供应链技术，使计算机产业在过去20年间降低了一半的整体存货。这确实是令人钦佩的成果，也使得计算机产业的价格大幅下滑。但是对其他产业而言，包括热切追求零售补货方案的服饰与日用品杂货两个产业，在导入各种方案后，存货水平仍旧维持不变。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的问题)They’rejustmovinginventoryelsewhereWhat'sgoingonhere?Aretheseprogramsjustasham?No;theproblemissubtlerthanthat.Theinventorylevelsofthecompaniesparticipatingintheseprogramshave,infact,dropped,butitnowappearsthatmostofthosereductionswereachievedbydisplacinginventorywithinthechainratherthanactuallyeliminatingit.Thismaybegoodforthecompaniesreportingsuccess,butit'shardonothermembersoftheirchains,anditdoesnothingtomakethosechainsmoreefficientorcompetitiveoverall.Theseprogramsmaybeintendedtocreateanewlevelofcooperationinthesupplychain,bringingcompaniestogetherastruetradingpartners,but,asoftenhappensinbusiness,

thebenefitsofthatcooperationappeartoaccruemostlytothedominantparty.它们只是将存货移到其他地方到底发生了什么问题呢？难道这些方案只是一些可耻之举吗？不是的！问题比这些来得更为细微、难以捉摸。事实上，参与这些方案的企业之存货水平的确是下降了，但是，大部分存货的减少似乎是将其移转到供应链的其他地方，而不是真正地去除掉存货。这种现象可能对那些报导成功经验的企业很好，但是却不利于其他供应链的成员，根本无法让供应链更贝效率与竞争力。这些方案可能试图在供应链中创造一种新的合作境界，以期整合各公司成为真正的贸易伙伴，不过犹如企业常规，这类合作的利益多半落在具有关键主导权的成员(dominantparty)身上。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的问题)RetailershaveslashedtheirinventoriesTherenownedsuccessofWal-Martinmasteringitssupplychainprovidesagoodcaseinpoint.ThroughavariantoftheclassicverticalintegrationstrategyWal-Marthaslargelyeliminatedthedistributors,carriers,andothermiddlementhatusedtointervenebetweenproducersandretailoutlets(Figure3.6).Thescaleofthiseffortisstaggering:Wal-Mart'struckscarry50millionpalletsofgoodseachweekto500millionsquarefeetofretailspacetoserve15millioncustomersaday.Witheconomiesofscalesuchasthese,Wal-Marthasbeenabletoeliminateagreatdealofexcesscostinitssupplychain.Theseefficienciesarereflectedinthenationaldata:Retailisoneofthefewsectorsthathasmadedramaticprogressinreducingitstotalinventory,neatlyparallelingtheriseofmegaretailerssuchasWal-Mart.零售商大砍他们的存货精通供应链的沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)知名成功案例提供一个很好的例子。透过一种典型的垂直整合策略，Wal-Mart已经大幅去除配销商、运输业者，以及其他过去介于生产商与零售点间的中间业者(见图3.6)。这项努力的规模非常巨大：Wal-Mart的货车每周载运5,000万个栈板的货物到占地5亿平方呎的零售通路，每天提供1,500万位顾客服务。拥有这么庞大的规模经济力量，Wal-Mart始终具有能力去除供应链上许多的多余成本。这样的效率反映在国家统计数字：零售业是少数产业之一，在整体存货下降上有非常大的进展，与像Wal-Mart般之大型零售商的崛起时间几乎平行发展。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的问题)ManufacturersnowholdmorefinishedgoodsWal-Mart'smassivescalealsoallowsittodictatetermstomanufacturers,reversingthehistoricaldominanceofproducersinthesupplychainsforconsumergoods.Forexample,companiesthatwantaccesstoWal-Mart'svastretailchannelhavetoshiplargevolumesofgoodstomanydifferentlocations,

meetprecisedeliveryscheduleswithhighreliability,andreactinstantlytochanginglevelsofdemandthroughouttheWal-Martempire.Theserequirementstranslatedirectlyintoincreasedinventoriesoffinishedgoods,andthat'sexactlywhatthedatashow.IntheindustriesthatservemegaretailerssuchasWal-Mart,inventoriesoffinishedgoodshavenotjustRemainedflat,theyhaveactuallygoneupoverthelast20years.制造商现在特有更多的制成品存货Wal-Mart的庞大规模也让她能主控与制造商谈判的交易条件，扭转传统上生产商在消费产品供应链中扮演主导角色的地位。例如，对想要进入Wal-Mart庞大零售通路的企业而言，她必须配送大量货物到许多不同的指定交货地点、严格遵守交货时间、保证交货时间的可靠度、并且需快速响应Wal