北非可再生能源规划与展望-Planning and prospects for renewable power NORTH AFRICA

Planningandprospectsforrenewablepower

NORTHAFRICA

©IRENA2023

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REPORTCITATION

IRENA(2023),Planningandprospectsforrenewablepower:NorthAfrica,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,

AbuDhabi.

ISBN:978-92-9260-485-1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ThisreportwasdraftedbySebastianHendrikSterl,PabloCarvajal,PaulineFulcheriandMohamedA.EltahirElabbasundertheguidanceofAsamiMiketa(IRENA)andDolfGielen(ex-IRENA),inclosecollaborationwithMohamedBassamBenTicha(consultant),whoconductedmajordevelopmentworkwithIRENAontheSystemPlanningTestmodelforNorthAfricaandprovidedmodellingsupport.ThereportalsoreceivedinputfromBilalHussain,DanielRusso,TommasoTiozzoBastianelloandFarmataDiallo(IRENA).

ValuablereviewandconsultationwereprovidedbyChokriZammali(SociétéTunisiennedel’ÉlectricitéetduGaz),NaimaChabouni(MinesParisTech),ArmanAghahosseini(LappeenrantaUniversityofTechnology),BobvanderZwaan(TNO),andIRENAcolleaguesHeribBlanco,LauraAl-Katiri,AhmedBadr,MirjamReiner,ImenGherboudj,MohammedSanusiNababa,RabiaFerroukhi,BinuParthan,GayathriNair,SimonBenmarraze,BarbaraJinks,PaulKomor,ZoheirHamediandReemKorban.

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Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agentsorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

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1

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CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS 8

ABOUTTHISREPORT 9

KEYTAKEAWAYS 11

REGIONALOVERVIEWANDKEYDATA 13

1.1Contributionofthisreport 13

1.2NorthAfrica’senergysupplyishighlydependentonfossilfuels 13

1.3NorthAfricancountriesshowdivergingpatternsofelectricityinfinal

energydemand 15

1.4ElectricitydemandinNorthAfricaisstillgrowingstrongly,requiringsubstantial

powersectorinvestments 16

1.5MostNorthAfricancountrieshaveambitiousrenewableelectricitytargets 19

1.6SolarandwindpowerinNorthAfricaareexpandingandgettingcheaper 22

1.7EnhancedflexibilitypromotesintegrationofsolarandwindintoNorthAfrican

powersystems 25

SCENARIOSFORNORTHAFRICA’SELECTRICITYSYSTEMS 31

2.1SPLAT-NmodelscapacityexpansioninNorthAfrica 31

2.2FourscenariosforNorthAfrica’spowersectorweremodelled 36

2.3ThethreeTransitionscenariosdifferintheirassumptions 41

2.4Ifinvestmentinfossilfuelprojectsisdiscontinued,least-costcapacityexpansion

isdominatedbysolarandwindpower 45

2.5Batterystorageandhydrogenproductionareconducivetogreaterintegration

ofsolarPV,buttheylowertheneedforCSP 51

2.6WindpowerisanattractiveinvestmentinallNorthAfricancountries,especially

incombinationwithhydrogenproduction 53

2.7Batterystorageandhydrogenproductionlowertheneedforadditional

cross-borderinterconnectivity 54

2.8Theneedforbatterystorageincreaseswiththeshareofvariablerenewables

intheenergymix 65

2.9Greenhydrogenproduction,combinedwithvariablerenewablesandstorage,

couldbecomeanintegralpartofaninterconnectedelectricitysystem 69

2.10CSPstoragewillbeimportanttoensuresystemadequacy 75

2.11DeploymentofVREwithstoragesolutionscantempersystemcostsiffossilfuel

investmentsarehalted 77

2.12Holdingdownthelevelisedcostofelectricity 79

2.13TheproposedtransitiontowardsVREwouldsubstantiallylowerCO2emissions

frompowergeneration 81

2.14AdditionalstudiescouldshedmorelightontheNorthAfricanpowersystem 83

2.15Pathwaystolower-costelectricitygenerationinNorthAfrica 85

REFERENCES 86

FIGURES

Figure1‑1TotalprimaryenergysupplystructureinNorthAfrica,2019 14

Figure1‑2TotalfinalenergyconsumptioninNorthAfrica,1990-2019 15

Figure1‑3ElectrificationpathoftheenergysectorinNorthAfrica:electricityintensity

andnon-electricityenergyintensityinNorthAfricancountries,1990-2019 16

Figure1‑4InstalledcapacityandgenerationinNorthAfricain2015and2019 17

Figure1‑5EvolutionofenergysectorinvestmentsinNorthAfrica,2015-2020 18

Figure1‑6CommittedandplannedpowerinvestmentsinNorthAfrica,2021-2025 18

Figure1‑7ExistingandcommittedcapacityinNorthAfricabytechnology,comparedwith

projectedpeakload,2020-2040 19

Figure1‑8Renewableenergycapacityexpansionby2030accordingtoNDCsinNorthAfrica 21

Figure1‑9Shareofenergysourcesinelectricitygenerationin2019andmostambitious

targetsforrenewableenergy(includinghydropower)inNorthAfrica 22

Figure1‑10InstalledcapacityofsolarPVandCSPinNorthAfrica,2010-2020,andsharein

individualcountries,2020 23

Figure1‑11EvolutionoftheaverageinstallationcostsforsolarPVprojectsinNorthAfrica 24

Figure1‑12InstalledcapacityofonshorewindinNorthAfrica,2010-2020,andsharein

individualcountries,2020 24

Figure1.13EvolutionofaverageinstallationcostsforonshorewindprojectsinNorthAfrica 25

Figure1‑14ExistingandplannedinterconnectioncapacityinNorthAfrica 26

Figure2‑1NormalisedloadcurvesonanaveragedayineachseasoninNorthAfrica

(appliedforallyearsofthemodellingperiod) 39

Figure2‑2Examplesofdiurnalprofilesofsolarphotovoltaicpowergenerationforsitesin

Mauritania(UTC),Algeria(UTC+1)andEgypt(UTC+2) 44

Figure2‑3MonthlyaveragewindprofileofdifferentlocationsinEgyptandMorocco 44

Figure2‑4Identifiedsolarphotovoltaicandwindmodelsupplyregionsfromresource

screeninginNorthAfricawith8%and17%accountedlosses,respectively 45

Figure2‑5CapacityexpansioninNorthAfricabytechnologyinthefourscenarios 47

Figure2‑6ProjectionofgenerationinNorthAfricainthefourscenarios,bytechnology 49

Figure2‑7ShareofenergysourcesinelectricitygenerationinNorthAfricainthefour

scenarios,bytechnology 49

Figure2‑8Newinstalledsolarphotovoltaiccapacitybycountryinthefourscenarios 52

Figure2‑9Newinstalledconcentratedsolarpowercapacitybycountryinthefourscenarios 52

Figure2‑10Newinstalledwindcapacitybycountryinthefourscenarios 53

Figure2‑11Modelassumptions(constraints)onexchangepricesbetweenNorthAfrican

countriesandneighbouringregions 55

Figure2‑12Totalelectricitytradeflowsin2040inthefourscenarios 55

Figure2‑13GrossexportsandimportsofelectricityinNorthAfricancountriesinthefour

scenarios,2018and2040 56

Figure2‑14Morocco’simportsfromSpaininthePlannedscenario,2040 58

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Figure2‑15Morocco’simportsfromAlgeriainthePlannedscenario,2040 58

Figure2‑16Tunisia’simportsfromAlgeriainthePlannedscenario,2040 59

Figure2‑17Tunisia’simportsfromLibyainthePlannedscenario,2040 59

Figure2‑18Tunisia’simportsfromItalyinthePlannedscenario,2040 60

Figure2‑19Egypt’simportsfromLibyainthePlannedscenario,2040 60

Figure2‑20DailyprofilesofexportsintheTransitionscenario,2040 61

Figure2‑21DailyprofilesofexchangesintheTransition+Batteriesscenario,2040 62

Figure2‑22DailyprofilesofexchangesintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenario,2040 63

Figure2‑23ElectricityexchangesinNorthAfricainthefourscenarios,2040(GWh) 64

Figure2‑24TotalinstalledbatterycapacityintheTransition+BatteriesandtheTransition+

Batteries+H2scenarios 66

Figure2‑25Dailyuseprofileofbatteriesbyseasonandbycountry 67

Figure2‑26DailyuseofpumpedhydropowerinMoroccoinallscenarios 68

Figure2‑27Unitcostofhydrogengeneratedinscreenedwindandsolarphotovoltaicregions 71

Figure2‑28HydrogensupplycurveinNorthAfricaasdeterminedbythemodel,2030and2040 71

Figure2‑29Evolutionofhydrogenproduction,electrolysercapacityandgenerationfrom

variablerenewableenergyinNorthAfricaintheTransition+Batteries+

H2scenario,2025-2040 72

Figure2‑30SeasonalhydrogenproductionintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenario,

bycountryandnormalised(relativetomaximumdailyproductionintheyear) 73

Figure2‑31DailyhydrogenproductionrateintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenario,

bycountry 74

Figure2‑32DailyhydrogenproductionintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenarioforeach

season,bycountry 74

Figure2‑33ResidualloaddurationcurveintheTransitionscenario,bycountry,2040 76

Figure2‑34Hourlycapacityfactorofconcentratedsolarpowerneededtomeetdemand

intheTransitionscenario,2040 77

Figure2‑35Evolutionofsystemcostsinthefourscenarios 78

Figure2‑36TotalcostsandtotalgenerationinNorthAfricainthefourscenarios,2020-2040 79

Figure2‑37EvolutionoftotalgenerationcostinNorthAfricainthefourscenarios

(annualsystemcostdividedbyannualgeneration) 80

Figure2‑38Averagegenerationcostinthefourscenarios,bycountry,2040 80

Figure2‑39EvolutionofcarbondioxideemissionsfromtheelectricitysectorinNorthAfrica

inthefourscenarios 82

Figure2‑40Cumulativecarbondioxideemissionsandreductionsinthefourscenarios,

2020-2040 82

Figure2‑41Averagedifferencesbetweenthe1.5˚CScenarioandPlannedEnergyScenario

forAfrica,2021-2050 84

TABLES

Table1‑1Power-sector-relatedtargetsinNorthAfricaasreflectedinrecentnational

plansandNDCs 20

Table1‑2Hydrogenprojects,partnerships,co-operationagreementsandmemorandaof

understandinginNorthAfrica 28

Table2‑1DefinitionandmodellingofpowersysteminputsinSPLAT-N 32

Table2‑2PlannedandcommittedrenewableenergyprojectsinNorthAfrica 35

Table2‑3Assumptionsbehindthefourmodelledscenarios 37

Table2‑4Summaryofkeyresultsfromtheinvestigatedscenarios 40

Table2‑5SummaryoftheanalysisofthestepsneededtogofromthePlannedtothe

Transitionscenario 42

Table2‑6Country-levelbreakdownofthepowergenerationmixby2040,byscenario 50

Table2‑7SensitivityofscenarioresultstopricesofexportsfromEgypttooutside

NorthAfrica 57

Table2‑8ShareofpowerexchangesintotalelectricitydemandinNorthAfrica 64

Table2‑9ComparisonofhydrogenproductionintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenario

withnational,regionalandglobalhydrogendemandprojections,2030and2040 72

Table2‑10ComparisonofelectrolysercapacityintheTransition+Batteries+H2scenario

withnational,regionalandglobalhydrogenprojections,2030and2040 73

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BOXES

Box2-1Characterisationofdemandinthemodel 37

Box2-2Estimatingvariablerenewableenergygenerationprofiles 43

Box2-3Representationofstorageinthemodel 47

Box2-4AnexampleofIRENA’ssocio-economicanalysisofenergytransitionroadmaps 83

ABBREVIATIONS

CAPEX

capitalexpenditure

LNG

liquefiednaturalgas

CCC

consolidatedcontractor’scompany

MSR

modelsupplyregion

CCPP

combinedcyclepowerplant

Mt

megatonne

CF

capacityfactor

MW

megawatt

CMP

ContinentalMasterPlan

MWh

megawatthour

CO2

carbondioxide

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContributions

COMELEC

MaghrebElectricityCommittee

O&M

operationandmaintenance

CSP

concentratedsolarpower

ONEE

NationalOfficeofElectricityandWater(Morocco)

ct

cent

OPEX

operationalexpenditure

EEHC

EgyptianElectricityHolding

Company

PJ

petajoule

EHB

EuropeanHydrogenBackbone

PV

photovoltaic

EJ

exajoule

RE

renewableenergy

ENTSO-E

EuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsforElectricity

ROR

run-of-river

SPLAT-N

SystemPlanningTestModelfor

EU

EuropeanUnion

NorthAfrica

GDP

grossdomesticproduct

TFEC

totalfinalenergyconsumption

GHG

greenhousegas

TWh

terawatthour

GW

gigawatt

UNFCCC

UnitedNationsFramework

ConventionforClimateChange

GWh

gigawatthour

UNSD

UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision

H

2

hydrogen(dihydrogen)

USD

UnitedStatesdollar

HFO

heavyfueloil

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

VRE

WACC

variablerenewableelectricityweightedaveragecostofcapital

IPP

independentpowerproducers

kW

kilowatt

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ABOUTTHISREPORT

ThisreportispartofIRENA’sseriesonplanningandprospectsforrenewableenergy,whichfocusesonrenewableelectricitygenerationinAfricanpowerpools.ItscontextisthelackofaregionalmasterplanforpowersystemexpansioninNorthAfrica(Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco,MauritaniaandTunisia)andIRENA’sinvolvementinthesearchforenergytransitionpathwaysfortheregion.ArecentexampleofthatinvolvementisIRENA’sparticipationasamodellingpartnerforthedevelopmentoftheAfricanContinentalPowerSystemsMasterPlan(CMP),aninitiativeledbytheAfricanUnionDevelopmentAgency’sNewPartnershipforAfrica’sDevelopment(AUDA-NEPAD)withthetechnicalandfinancialsupportoftheEuropeanUnion.

ThisreportpresentsvariousscenariosforpowersystemexpansioninNorthAfricathrough2040,includingthepotentialitiesofhydrogenproductionandofinterconnectionswithinandoutsidetheregion(SouthernEuropethroughMoroccoandTunisia;andWesternAsiathroughEgypt).FeedbackfromnationalexpertswascollectedduringaworkshopinMarch2022,butthisreportdoesnotnecessarilyreflectcountries’officialpositions.Nordoesitintendtoprescribeapathforpowersectordevelopment.ThereportisbasedontheSystemPlanningTestModelforNorthAfrica(SPLAT-NorthAfrica),amodeldevelopedbyIRENAandbuiltonpubliclyavailabledata.SPLAT-NorthAfricacanbeusedinfuturecapacity-buildingeventsandbythecountriesoftheregiontoconducttheirownanalyses.

ThereportshowcasespossibilitiesforNorthAfricancountriestodiversifytheirelectricitygenerationmixesandreducetheirrelianceonfossilfuelresourcesby2040.Theregionstandstobenefitfromfallingrenewableenergycostsanditsampleendowmentsofwindandsolarenergy.Bothcanhelptheregiondecreasesthecostofelectricitygenerationbyincreasingtheshareofrenewablesintheelectricitymix.Diversifyingthesourcesofelectricitygenerationwouldalsoallowtheregiontochoosebetweenusingitsfossilfuelresourceslocallyorexportingthem.TheflexibilitytomakesuchchoicesishighlyrelevantinacontextofhighfossilfuelpricesandthedesireofEuropetoincreaseimportsofnaturalgasfromNorthAfrica.

PowergenerationinAlgeria,Egypt,LibyaandTunisiaisdominatedbynaturalgas,whilecoalistheprimarysourceinMoroccoandoilinMauritania.Thevulnerabilityoffossil-fuel-based,non-diversifiedpowergenerationistwofold.First,countriesthatrelyheavilyonimportedfossilfuels(Tunisia,MoroccoandMauritania)areexposedtoexternalpriceshocksinadditiontotheweightofimportsonforeigncurrencyreserves.Second,countrieswithfossilfuelreservestendtosubsidisethenationalfossilfuelindustrysoastoencouragecheapergenerationfromdomesticallyproducedfossilfuels,contortingcountries’fiscalposture.Fallingcapitalcostsforsolarphotovoltaicandwind–accompaniedbytheglobalpoliticalandsocialpressurestoachieveinternationalclimateobjectives–willmakeitincreasinglydifficulttosecuresocialacceptanceofthehighercostsoffossil-fuel-basedgeneration.Continuedinvestmentinthatfossil-fuel-basedgenerationinfrastructuremaywellleavecountrieswithpowerplantsthatwillbelittleused,bothbecauseoftheirhigherfuelcostsandinordertocomplywithtargetsforreductionofcarbondioxideemissions.

Basedonthemodellingstudiespresentedhere,thisreportfindsthatlarge-scaleroll-outofvariablerenewableelectricitygenerationfromsolarandwindpowerwouldbeacost-efficientwaytoavoidcontinuedrelianceonfossilfuels,whilecontinuingtomeettherisingdemandforelectricityinNorthAfrica.Althoughsolarandwindresourcesareweatherdependentandthusvariable,thereportshowshowtheeffectsofvariabilitycanbemitigatedusingmodernstoragesolutions(notablybatterystorage)andgreenhydrogenproductionforelectricityexporttotheEuropeanmarket.Theresultsshowthatsuchatransitionpathwouldlowertheunitcostsofpowergenerationfromthosethatwouldresultfromcountries’currentpolicies.Moreover,suchtransitionswouldhelpmostcountriesreducegreenhousegasemissions.

Chapter1ofthereportpresentsaregionaloverviewoftheregion’senergyandelectricitysituation.Chapter2describesthemethodsandassumptionsusedtocompilefourscenariosfortheexpansionofgeneratingcapacityintheregionanddiscussestheaggregateresultsofthosescenarios.TheaccompanyingDataappendix(IRENA2022b),presentsthedatausedinthestudyandthecountryresultsobtainedbyprocessingthosedatausingthemodeldescribedinChapter2.

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KEYTAKEAWAYS

NorthAfricancountriesarehighlydependentonfossilfuelsforelectricitygeneration,renderingthemvulnerabletopricefluctuationsoffossilfuelcommoditiesonglobalmarketsandstrainingnationalbudgetsthroughsubsidisationoffossil-fuel-basedgeneration.

DiversifyingawayfromacontinueddependenceonfossilfuelswillallowNorthAfricatosimultaneouslylowertheunitcostsofpowergenerationandallowtheregiontochoosebetweenusingitsfossilfuelresourceslocallyorexportingthem.Diversificationcanalsolowertherisksofdisruptionofenergysupplyincountrieslackinglocalfossilfuelresources.Alarge-scaleexpansionofsolarPV,concentratedsolarpowerandwindpowercapacity,substantiallybeyondcountries’currenttargets,couldfacilitatesuchatransition.

Powergenerationcostscouldbefurtherreducedthroughutility-scaledeploymentofbatterypowerplants,whichwouldmakeitpossibletointegratesolarPVplantswiththegridandreducetheneedforadditionalinterconnectionsbetweenthecountriesoftheregion.

Evenfurtherbenefitscouldbereapedfromtheproductionofgreenhydrogenforexporttoothermarkets,suchasEurope.Underanambitioushydrogenexportscenario,apronouncedexpansionofsolarandwindpowertechnologiestoallowforlarge-scalehydrogenproductioncouldresultinevenlowerunitcostsofelectricity,increasingearningsfromhydrogenexportsatcompetitiveprices.

Suchascenariowouldrequireaquadruplingofpowersectorsizesandinvestmentsovercurrentplans,butitwouldcutelectricitygenerationcostsinhalf.

Asidefromreducingcountries’dependenciesonextractiveresources,suchatransitionwouldhavetheadditionalbenefitofsubstantiallyloweringgreenhousegasemissionsfromthepowersectorcomparedwithpresentemissionsandthosethatwouldbeproducedundercurrentplans.Thethreetransitionscenariospresentedinthisreportwouldbringa75%reductioninemissionlevelsby2040comparedwith2020.

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1

REGIONALOVERVIEW

ANDKEYDATA

1.1CONTRIBUTIONOFTHISREPORT

IRENA’sSPLAT-MESSAGE(SystemPlanningTestmodelbasedontheModelforEnergySupplyStrategyAlternativesandtheirGeneralEnvironmentalImpact)capacityexpansionmodellingframework,discussedinSection2.1,wasusedtodeveloptheSPLAT-NorthAfricamodel,coveringsixNorthAfricancountries(Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Mauritania,MoroccoandTunisia)tochartpossiblepathwaysforNorthAfrica’sfutureelectricitysupply.Inparticular,thenetbenefitsofstorage(batteriesandhydrogen,thelatterforexporttoEuropeanmarkets)inaninterconnectedelectricitysystemwereinvestigatedtoilluminatethepossibilitiesofreachingamuchlargershareofrenewableelectricityandacorrespondingdiversificationawayfromfossilfuelsby2040.

Adetaileddescriptionofthemainassumptions–includingthegeographicandtemporalcharacterisationofrenewableresources(solarandwind),estimatesoffutureelectricitydemandinthecountriesoftheregion,internationalfuelprices,andestimatesofinvestmentcostsbytechnologytype–isprovidedinChapter2.TheaccompanyingDataappendix(IRENA,2022b)presentsthedatausedinthestudyandthecountryresultsobtainedbyprocessingthosedatausingthemodeldescribedinChapter2.

Thisfirstchaptersu