电子行业23Q1总结：有望进入复苏周期

AI硅基时代开启，拉动新硬件需求微软、谷歌两大CSP厂商上修Capex为服务器景气能见度提供有力支撑：微软预计未来Capex2023Capex2223Q2加快。服务器供应链厂商不认同砍单说，表示订单和出货无明显变化：①intelSapphireAMDGeonaCPU6~7②供应链表明订单和出货无明显变化，CSPForecast8上。1：AI相关公司业绩情况（亿元）公司收入毛利率（）净利率（）归母净利润（亿元）财务费用（亿元）名称22Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1海康威视165.22162.01-243.7245.171.4414.6212.03(2.60)22.8418.11-210.05(0.51)大华股份58.4860.16339.0342.533.505.898.192.313.564.95390.810.48鼎捷软件3.263.581058.1959.421.23(4.61)(3.70)0.91(0.17)(0.11)-37(0.01)(0.01)凌云光5.265.51531.7330.23(1.50)(3.06)1.604.66(0.15)0.10-1690.02(0.13)工业富联1050.621058.8916.777.360.593.102.95(0.15)32.5631.28-4(2.03)2.99紫光股份153.42165.29821.9321.01(0.92)4.244.690.463.724.3918(0.45)(0.14)浪潮信息172.7794.00-4611.1813.011.831.872.070.193.342.10-371.260.99中科曙光21.7622.98620.8124.043.235.286.651.381.141.3115(0.20)(0.13)鹏鼎控股70.7666.67-619.8220.911.088.386.28(2.11)5.934.19-29(0.12)1.07沪电股份19.1718.68-325.9525.73(0.22)13.0210.72(2.29)2.502.00-20(0.25)0.13电连技术7.586.16-1932.1831.79(0.39)11.837.26(4.57)0.880.47-470.040.00兆龙互连3.793.28-1413.3414.310.965.544.80(0.74)0.210.16-250.010.02寒武纪0.630.752056.5876.7920.21(473.24)(348.79)124.45(2.87)(2.55)-11(0.16)(0.11)海光信息9.6711.612064.9663.74(1.22)20.6928.577.891.432.39670.05(0.33)景嘉微3.620.65-8256.1757.721.5521.37(108.43)(129.80)0.77(0.71)-191(0.04)(0.02)兆易创新22.3013.41-4049.4938.25(11.24)30.7611.19(19.57)6.861.50-78(0.30)(0.33)北京君正14.1410.69-2437.4137.08(0.33)16.3110.34(5.97)2.321.15-51(0.10)(0.20)江波龙23.3014.82-3616.881.27(15.60)6.96(18.93)(25.89)1.62(2.81)-2730.100.19澜起科技9.004.20-5343.1953.2910.1134.004.70(29.29)3.060.20-94(0.18)(0.28)雅克科技9.6510.711131.8532.470.6216.0216.250.221.491.7316(0.00)(0.08)鼎龙股份5.705.47-439.0034.64(4.35)14.057.13(6.92)0.710.35-510.020.07华懋科技3.444.202232.1026.88(5.22)18.366.03(12.33)0.600.29-52(0.01)(0.02)华特气体3.833.59-625.7230.254.5310.1711.261.090.390.4020.030.04瑞芯微5.433.29-3939.1533.44(5.71)15.50(5.58)(21.08)0.84(0.18)-122(0.05)(0.02)晶晨股份14.8110.35-3040.7837.40(3.38)18.262.94(15.32)2.700.30-890.020.06全志科技4.162.39-4344.4631.88(12.58)18.48(17.38)(35.86)0.77(0.41)-154(0.09)(0.07)恒玄科技2.873.843439.8935.69(4.20)7.83(0.20)(8.03)0.22(0.01)-103(0.03)0.01富瀚微5.154.16-1937.7138.931.2218.0912.82(5.27)1.020.59-420.040.05中科蓝讯2.293.073421.5619.58(1.98)17.5116.09(1.42)0.400.49230.00(0.09)乐鑫科技2.893.181041.0440.71(0.33)9.649.770.130.280.31120.01(0.04)，科创板日报公众号，大同学吧公众号，艾邦半导体网公众号，各公司官网，各公司公告，我们认为基于下述假设，GPT目前在服务器上花费的成本至少为3.47亿美元。首先，我AITomGoldstein1个2CPU、8GPU（A100，80G内存、DRAM与其它组件组成，这个服务器ChatGPTAI15-2020个单词/秒172.8（=20×60×60×24/10000）SimilarWeb113001000500个单词ChatGPT50亿单词（=1000×500万，这里需要注意的是，1000万人使用时间实际上并不是均匀分布的，ChatGPT50亿单词高至少28945788CPU23152GPUThinkmateA100GPU报价，③CPU单价取$5000，GPU单价取$11500（考虑Thinae报价略低RAM取$8000一个服务器总价为$1200003.47亿美元，CPU、GPU、DRAM分别为0.29、2.66、0.23亿美元。未来随着ChatGPT的市占率及应用端的发展，我们预测它的日活量（DAU）与每人每天生成单词2023年后均会呈现阶梯式高速增长直至2030年后放缓，服务器成本也将随之继续扩张。其中，DAUChatGPTChatGPTChatGPT的（往往取决于算法ChatGPT解决用户问题的能力（取决于数据训练ChaGPT能够更好地解决用户的影响，我们对其进行敏感性分析发现，ChatGPT12030ChatGPT9.36亿日活量（93.6倍1500个生成（3倍281（≈93.6×3）——975.1亿美元。此外，若考虑到芯片的损耗及芯片升级，预计ChatGPT对芯片的需求将长时间维持在较高水平。图1：ChatGPT服务器成本（百万美元）对DAU、每人每天生成单词的敏感性分析DAU（百万） ChatGPT的普适性51040.651040.681.4163.2246.9415.0585.9675.2936.120069139564113122673429576481389378130013001042088461696340051448646122061406719502400139278112822614533685811528162751875626003500174347141028265667857314410203442344432503600208417169233926800102881729224413281333900470024348619743957793312002201742848132822455058002785562256452290671371723056325503751152006900313625253850881020015431259383661942200585061000347694281956531133317146288194068846889650071100382764310162181246718860317014475651578715081200417833338367831360020575345834882556267780081300451903366573491473322290374655289460956845091400486972394779141586724004403475696365644910101500521104242298479170002571943229610317033397510ChatGPT的解决能力

2022年2022年

2030年

2030年InternationalTelecommunicationUnion(ITU)WorldTelecommunication/ICTIndicatorsDatabase，worldbank，statista，注：横坐标DAU的变化参考worldbank给出的1995-2002年互联网用户占总人口数比例以及statista2023-2030年间未来人口预测，计算公式为：n年的DAU=（n-28）年的互联网用户/总人口）×n年预测总人口半导体：底部阵痛，看好周期复苏半导体行业行情回顾202311.052.25，上证综指5.946.455.89A6.47半导体在23年一季度跑赢主要指数。4月显著回调。202346.033.121.543.314.31A指数下跌1.44，半导体在23年4月跑输主要指数。表2：2023年一季度半导体行业跑赢主要指数

（）创业板指数2.258.81（）创业板指数2.258.81上证综合指数5.945.11深证综合指数6.454.60中小板指数5.895.17万得全A6.474.58半导体（申万）11.05-Wind，表3：2023年4月半导体行业跑输主要指数

半导体行业相对涨跌幅23年4月涨跌幅

半导体行业相对涨跌幅（）上证综合指数 1.54 -7.57创业板指数 上证综合指数 1.54 -7.57深证综合指数 -3.31 -2.72中小板指数 中小板指数 -4.31 -1.72万得全A -1.44 -4.59半导体（申万） 半导体（申万） -6.03 -，2329.6%22.5%，18.3%16.6%，IC14.7%，封测领涨半导体板块。4月封测板块有所回调，细分板块来看，半导体设备涨幅居前，达到14.8%4.0%5.0%7.9%，IC设计下10.0%。ICIC -11.7-15.0-10.0-10.0封设 测计-7.9分立器件-5.0半导体材料半导体制造-半-5.0 导体设备4.015.010.05.014.820.0图 -11.7-15.0-10.0-10.0封设 测计-7.9分立器件-5.0半导体材料半导体制造-半-5.0 导体设备4.015.010.05.014.820.0 -4.114.716.618.322.529.6-， ，2023年一季度，半导体涨幅前十大个股为：聚辰股份、景嘉微、安路科技、英集芯、神工股份、创耀科技、敏芯股份、阿石创、环旭电子、新洁能。2023年4月，半导体涨幅前十大个股为：佰维存储、精测电子、微导纳米、拓荆科技、寒武纪-U、圣晖集成、安集科技、雅克科技、芯源微、北方华创。表4：23年一季度及23年4月半导体涨幅前10股票证券简称1Q23涨跌幅证券简称4月涨跌幅聚辰股份47佰维存储120景嘉微45精测电子61安路科技43微导纳米49英集芯43拓荆科技46神工股份39寒武纪-U39创耀科技37圣晖集成36敏芯股份35安集科技31阿石创34雅克科技30环旭电子33芯源微28新洁能31北方华创26Wind，天风证券研究所一季度半导体业绩复盘：周期加速触底50%的增长，增速和上季度来看基本持平。5%，和上季度比由正转负。IC15%7%1%块的营收增速下降，体现了板块周期加速触底。图4：半导体板块季度营收及归母净利润同比增速趋势收入同比增速单位：亿元市值4Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23趋势封测2,36937322527172822279-5IC设计15,760411201197459206-10-10-15半导体材料5,50817610-2016114330167半导体设备6,82856755957485141615050半导体制造4,256183345313944292310-10分立器件4,70112443681020918-1其他1,5528584658605151-10-12-27合计40,97427665440333223148-3归母净利润同比增速单位：亿元市值4Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23趋势封测2,36911314776592845-8-30-53-77IC设计15,76065150189364131440-60-129-81半导体材料5,50813818935395213972461310半导体设备6,8281951967859632477906381半导体制造4,256841292614819592-920-32-42分立器件4,7011351044349271613-9-28-14其他1,55211421454170373851-2415-59合计40,974101148122125995213-11-46-36，毛利率方面，半导体板块一季度整体上环比有增有降。封测板块一季度毛利率9.4%，环22.40%41.0%块一季度毛利率27.2%，环比增长。图5：半导体分板块季度营收（元） 图6：半导体分板块季度毛利率（）封测IC设计封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他4Q21496.4438.6328.3129.8175.9310.8105.31Q22419.0380.8336.0103.4194.8338.798.62Q22445.8421.1403.2134.6212.1310.0116.33Q22533.2372.5402.8162.2209.7325.496.84Q22541.3396.2380.8195.2194.3314.793.11Q23397.5325.2359.1155.0175.3364.672.104Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23

50 45封测IC设计封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他4Q2114.141.222.740.030.926.315.71Q2213.240.822.742.636.528.913.82Q2213.840.620.444.135.029.013.53Q2212.238.320.641.434.129.115.24Q2211.234.720.443.029.726.718.51Q239.434.622.441.023.827.215.935302520151054Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23， ，费用率（特指研发+管理+销售费用率，下同）方面，IC设计费用率维持在高位。封测板7.3%，环比提升，IC31.7%，环比基本持平略有1.9%2%，IC高位，主要是研发费用率较高导致，IC21%6%4%，相对平稳。图7：半导体分板块季度费用率（） 图8：IC设计板块费用率（研发+管理+销售）4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q234Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23333444管理费用率5556662520151050研发费用率4Q21 161Q22 152Q22 163Q22 204Q22 211Q23 21， ，归母净利率方面，一季度IC设计板块环比扭亏。封测板块一季度归母净利率1.4%，环比下降，IC设计板块一季度归母净利率3.6%，环比扭亏为盈，半导体材料板块一季度归母净利率9.9%，环比增长，半导体设备一季度归母净利率18.0%，环比下滑，分立器件板块一季度归母净利率9.2%，环比略增。图9：半导体分板块归母净利率（） 图10：半导体分板块ROE（）302520151050-5封测IC设计封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他4Q216.516.18.718.127.412.83.81Q225.616.59.614.921.411.52.92Q225.019.210.222.723.514.84.23Q223.99.410.522.319.413.03.84Q222.8-5.28.519.616.99.15.01Q231.43.69.918.013.79.21.64Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23

20151050封测IC设计封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他4Q2115.814.810.613.911.911.511.01Q2210.811.210.68.010.110.77.12Q2210.113.112.914.711.512.112.03Q229.05.012.715.78.910.67.24Q226.2-2.89.215.36.87.07.51Q232.21.69.710.74.88.01.9 4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23， ，47亿，环比略降，IC66亿，环比略降，半导体48336253亿，环比略降，IC656亿，连续两个季度未见显著增长，半导体材料板块240亿，环比增长，半导体设备板块594亿，环比增长，分立器件板块291亿，环比略有下降。400亿元 35030025020015010050-1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23400亿元 35030025020015010050-1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23800亿元 700600500400300200100-4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23封测IC设计半导体材料封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他1Q2243535419510713112Q2247596122914513143Q2241696726015215124Q2251694429714410131Q234766483361501115封测IC设计半导体材料半导体设备半导体制造分立器件其他4Q21222451155298157229501Q22243502179350173260442Q22268594188407194259563Q22290667203471226301544Q22262656219518241299551Q2325365624059425929155， ，表5：半导体市值前60大公司营收及归母净利润季度变化情况（市值单位：亿元）收入同比增速（） 归母同比增速（） 5.19公司简称1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q231Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23市值中芯国际62.644.841.914.6-13.9175.5-19.051.1-19.7-44.02,193海光信息529.8274.063.637.320.0257.7574.86.1-25.366.91,880北方华创50.051.478.133.281.3183.2130.9167.759.1186.61,595TCL中环79.180.058.642.931.8142.164.466.844.171.91,280韦尔股份-10.8-11.3-26.5-18.9-21.7-13.914.1-109.4-221.0-77.81,157中微公司57.339.145.963.928.9-14.935.4123.9-19.8135.01,012晶盛机电114.075.881.561.284.457.1139.857.252.1100.4949-1,218.三安光电14.37.6-4.95.6-6.4-22.953.8-86.4-50.29306寒武纪-U74.36.99.5-6.819.5-39.8-80.1-35.5-59.511.3810紫光国微40.816.735.740.714.963.920.944.919.110.0808华润微22.99.20.54.6-6.754.910.014.1-4.2-38.6778兆易创新39.025.2-26.1-37.6-39.8127.673.6-34.5-105.7-78.1747闻泰科技23.47.2-2.113.6-2.5-22.916.9-5.8-184.8-8.4671澜起科技200.6141.79.8-18.4-53.4128.2115.855.4-5.1-93.6670华大九天51.943.033.234.464.764.3124.526.816.3101.7607龙芯中科-37.1-39.5-35.7-40.2-34.9-41.789.3-154.5-118.1-298.2590三环集团7.1-4.8-38.0-26.7-15.21.6-25.0-51.7-13.8-35.7584时代电气22.323.834.78.521.331.021.836.421.827.6578沪硅产业47.146.247.443.52.1-267.2-27.01,630.4338.0791.6577长电科技21.24.913.44.6-28.0123.0-27.114.6-7.7-87.2543拓荆科技86.2658.479.285.9274.2-15.01,336.565.91,145.2552.2520卓胜微12.4-23.1-30.5-42.5-46.5-6.7-43.9-54.6-86.1-74.6512振华科技44.229.330.311.211.5146.2147.734.1-3.121.0495士兰微35.719.17.63.33.354.528.7-41.0-64.8-20.4473盛美上海28.5111.990.967.874.1-88.6346.9245.993.72,937.2471江波龙-5.8-9.0-27.5-17.8-36.4-20.8-56.2-160.1-310.0-273.0451北京君正32.49.7-2.9-19.5-24.492.419.1-21.3-80.2-50.5428圣邦股份96.868.022.810.3-33.8245.051.110.5-50.5-88.4422芯原股份芯原股份68.720.53.728.6-3.8104.8-48.9-24.716.9-2,280.3415斯达半导67.055.2斯达半导67.055.250.763.143.8101.5147.4116.572.536.3393巨化股份28.128.6巨化股份28.128.632.3-4.7-0.71,880.0 679.5382.9-19.8-34.9366晶晨股份59.451.6晶晨股份59.451.65.0-25.8-30.1202.296.2-62.2-85.0-88.7356复旦微电54.547.9复旦微电54.547.942.512.04.3169.6175.769.572.4-19.2348天岳先进-46.7-22.6天岳先进-46.7-22.6-11.619.2185.4 -283.2 -221.1 -890.7 -259.035.7336国博电子68.246.4国博电子68.246.473.3-5.115.467.621.940.655.815.5327深科技-4.6-5.5深科技-4.6-5.53.4-2.77.821.0192.5-50.9-67.6-58.3310华天科技15.86.4华天科技15.86.4-10.5-13.9-25.6-26.6-7.1-54.2-87.2 -151.4310精测电子1.5-28.0精测电子1.5-28.050.142.0-0.4-56.1-99.1218.5 1,198.6 -58.2300翱捷科技长川科技82.4长川科技82.472.042.986.0-40.560.1285.5101.152.8-180.5285

31.5 14.8 -9.1 -20.9 -26.8 82.3 70.4 12.9 37.9 -506.1 297纳芯微146.2124.0纳芯微146.2124.0102.339.338.9148.297.3-26.8-87.7-98.1283思瑞浦164.774.9思瑞浦164.774.915.8-27.6-30.5193.716.2-73.3 -107.7 -98.227628,268.四维图新 19.8 10.0 6.7 6.0 13.7 126.1 -349.2 -272.0 -269.2 -972.3 27428,268.唯捷创芯1.8-47.1-55.6-32.6-62.92-331.9-20.596.1-324.7271鼎龙股份9.628.915.98.7-4.090.1128.569.551.4-51.3254芯源微62.035.099.973.456.9398.329.5308.6135.5103.5252思特威-W-19.0-19.1-18.928.13.8-79.4-108.2-133.1-152.8-282.0245华峰测控124.035.0-24.221.3-22.9355.722.0-31.813.5-38.9238扬杰科技50.534.826.3-14.7-7.677.864.754.4-34.9-34.2235，VRMR23Q1消费电子终端销量回顾表6：23Q1消费电子终端销量回顾（百万部）全球中国23Q122Q422Q1YoYQoQ23Q122Q422Q1YoYQoQ智能手机269.80296.90311.20-10.04-13.3067.6074.4075.60-10.58-10.06PC53.9865.4480.06-21.23-32.58/12.2711.66//平板电脑/42.3538.60///7.484.69//智能可穿戴设备/50.0041.70///////AR、VR1.923.572.84-85.94-32.390.190.400.27-29.63-110.53Canalys公众号，维深WellsennXR，智能手机：全球智能手机市场需求冷淡，苹果、安卓销量均下滑&ASP根据IDC数据，2023Q1苹果智能手机出5,5202.3，苹果手机一季度出货量虽然少于三星位居第二，但20.52.5pct；IDC全球安卓智能手机出2.1317.4，销量持续疲软。3月舜宇光学科技摄像头模组出货量下滑24.1，丘钛科技摄像头模组出货量下滑2，我们认为国内安卓摄像头模组供应商月度出货量数据一定程度上反映目前安卓手机行业库存去化尚未结束。图13：苹果智能手机单季度出量及增速 图14：安卓智能手机单季度出量及增速IDC， IDC，图15：舜宇光学科技摄像头模月度出货量及增速 图16：丘钛科技摄像头模组月出货量及增速舜宇光学科技公司公告， 资料来源：丘钛科技公司公告，VR设备短期销量下滑，AR设备同比增长但体量较小头部VR品牌销量下滑，预计年底起有高端产品发布。wellsennXR的调研和跟踪统计，2023VR1823247Meta、PicoVRMeta121万台、PSVR228Pico9VR16万台，环比下滑5436VR头显出货量为166同比下滑342023年全球VR出货量11002022年增长12MeaPSVR2150Pico50MR302023年仍处于出货量较小的年份，2023Quest3MR等较为重磅的产品发布上市，但预计集中在四季度开2024XR2Gen2的各品牌头显会集中发布上市并取得一定销量，Quest3MRVR等头部公司产品会带来较大的出货量贡献。图17：全球VR季度出货量（万台，不含VR盒子） 图18：全球VR年度出货量（万台，不含VR盒子）资料来源：维深WellsennXR公众号， 资料来源：维深WellsennXR公众号，ARARwellsennXR的调研和跟踪统计，2023AR9.718382022年一季度，2023AR眼镜的持续贡献，Nreal、雷鸟、RokidAR头显3.239AR6.52023AR65202253ARNreal、Rokid、雷鸟、华为、荣耀、努比AR眼镜，以及影目、李未可、奇点临近、VuzixAR眼镜等。图19：全球AR季度出货量（万台，不含无屏AR） 图20：全球AR年度出货量（万台，不含无屏AR）500

1501006515010065425 5 8122228维深WellsennXR公众号， 维深WellsennXR公众号，PC库存消化最后一公里，出货量同比下滑，下半年有望复苏PC&平板电脑：经济和商业活动逐渐复苏，Canalys预计平板电脑销量可能要等到2023年第四季度才会迎来复苏；过去三年平板电脑广泛普及，预计需求放缓。PC：2023Q1PC5,4002位数的同比降幅。平板电脑：2022Q44,2351.15个季度下滑之后，全球平板电脑出货量有所增长。图21：全球PC单季度出货量及增速 图22：全球平板电脑单季度出量及增速Canalys公众号，CounterpointResearch公众号， Canalys公众号，23Q1业绩回顾终端市场需求低迷，23Q12023SW消费电子行业公司2,582.853.1076.7611.65。按SW10.960.37pct，3.010.48pct年一季度消费电子板块多数企业出现盈利下滑，其直接原因与需求减弱有关。图23：SW消费电子行业季度营情况（亿元） 图24：SW消费电子行业季度净润情况（亿元）， ，图25：SW消费电子行业单季度盈利能力情况，苹果供应商业绩韧性显著，H2有望开启新一轮硬件拉动周期苹果传统供应链厂商整体业绩稳健，立讯精密、中石科技、恒铭达、博硕科技业绩同比高速增长。苹果整体销售稳健+产品结构优化，带动部分供应链厂商业绩整体稳健成长，也因素影响业绩增速表现一般。IDC表示，20232022年以来每季度10。与海外市场类似，疫情管控优化以后，中国手机市场需求并未出现明显的反弹，消费者仍然受到经济低迷、消费信心等因素的影响。收入（亿元）毛利率（）净利率（）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）毛利率（）净利率（）归母净利润（亿元）财务费用（亿元）22Q123Q1YoY()22Q123Q1YoY(pct)22Q123Q1YoY(pct)22Q123Q1YoY()22Q123Q1立讯精密416.00499.4220.0511.8110.03(1.78)5.014.20(0.81)18.0320.1811.921.463.66环旭电子139.54129.98(6.85)9.279.08(0.19)3.152.13(1.02)4.392.77(36.90)0.610.83鹏鼎控股70.7666.67(5.78)19.8220.911.098.386.28(2.10)5.934.19(29.34)(0.12)1.07东山精密73.1265.12(10.94)14.1214.800.684.967.242.283.644.7229.670.981.34工业富联1,050.621,058.890.796.777.360.593.102.95(0.15)32.5631.28(3.93)(2.03)2.99歌尔股份201.12241.2219.9413.726.98(6.74)4.500.45(4.05)9.011.06(88.24)0.490.38德赛电池49.0242.88(12.53)8.828.68(0.14)3.141.56(1.58)1.540.74(51.95)0.030.29欣旺达106.21104.78(1.35)13.4513.680.230.54(3.50)(4.04)0.95(1.65)(273.68)1.211.77博硕科技2.032.6329.5646.8042.37(4.43)31.6226.76(4.86)0.620.7317.74(0.05)0.00恒铭达3.113.4811.9025.4026.340.9411.1311.880.750.350.4220.000.010.06中石科技2.713.1415.8725.6423.66(1.98)8.676.60(2.07)0.240.21(12.50)0.000.03世华科技0.810.821.2359.7657.21(2.55)35.2836.871.590.280.307.140.000.00精研科技4.383.02(31.05)22.2611.41(10.85)4.18(14.85)(19.03)0.23(0.43)(286.96)0.020.08信维通信19.1417.37(9.25)19.0320.541.516.358.211.861.211.4519.830.030.13名称资料来源：，JMInsights集摩咨询公众号，蓝帅公众号，各公司公告，安卓系客户占比较高厂商业绩有望加速筑底收入（亿元）毛利率（）净利率（）归母净利润（亿元）（亿元）22Q123Q1YoY()22Q1收入（亿元）毛利率（）净利率（）归母净利润（亿元）（亿元）22Q123Q1YoY()22Q123Q1YoY(pct)22Q123Q1YoY(pct)22Q123Q1YoY()22Q123Q1达瑞电子2.532.748.3028.2025.89(2.31)8.720.49(8.23)0.220.03(86.36)(0.15)(0.08)五方光电2.551.59(37.65)14.5818.964.387.387.630.250.190.12(36.84)(0.02)(0.03)飞荣达7.537.732.6611.9115.863.95(3.31)(3.57)(0.26)(0.18)(0.25)38.890.160.26同兴达21.5715.90(26.29)6.846.39(0.45)3.14(4.06)(7.20)0.77(0.65)(184.42)0.190.11珠海冠宇30.0523.77(20.90)18.9818.66(0.32)1.70(6.84)(8.54)0.51(1.40)(374.51)0.330.52紫建电子1.581.611.9027.999.22(18.77)14.87(0.83)(15.70)0.23(0.01)(104.35)0.020.03智动力4.872.95(39.43)14.071.84(12.23)2.19(15.25)(17.44)0.11(0.45)(509.09)0.020.07硕贝德3.923.50(10.71)17.3820.633.251.23(7.21)(8.44)0.03(0.27)转负0.050.10，MCA手机联盟公众号，各公司公告，泛光学标的业绩承压，盈利能力逐步分化收入（净利润（亿元）收入（净利润（亿元）毛利率（净利率（）22Q123Q1YOY(22Q123Q1YOY()22Q123Q1YOY(pct)22Q123Q1YOY(pct)002189.SZ中光学8.495.76-32-0.29-0.68-1357.665.20-2.45-3.40-11.77-8.37002456.SZ欧菲光45.9326.96-41-2.04-4.27-1095.662.38-3.28-4.44-15.86-11.41002808.SZ恒久科技0.370.33-9-0.04-0.03-1311.2517.366.11-10.71-10.220.49002962.SZ五方光电2.551.59-370.190.12-3514.5818.964.387.387.630.25003015.SZ日久光电1.120.93-170.13-0.06-14831.2120.30-10.9111.66-6.64-18.30300566.SZ激智科技5.164.15-200.400.28-3019.6519.880.237.846.79-1.05证券代码 公司名称 300691.SZ联合光电2.753.3020-0.130.09-16418.3122.283.98-4.862.617.48300701.SZ森霸传感0.510.59170.090.08-1240.8941.130.2417.4413.13-4.31300790.SZ宇瞳光学4.304.11-50.430.10-7826.9819.96-7.029.962.34-7.62603297.SH永新光学2.091.88-100.540.47-1240.3238.69-1.6325.7825.10-0.68605118.SH力鼎光电1.401.31-60.440.30-3142.8339.83-3.0131.1922.94-8.25688010.SH福光股份1.311.4070.14-0.08-15929.4123.27-6.1410.65-5.86-16.50688079.SH美迪凯1.060.95-110.14-0.05-13847.0330.97-16.0613.00-5.52-18.52688127.SH蓝特光学0.900.86-50.220.05-7839.6130.44-9.1724.095.58-18.51688195.SH腾景科技0.780.7800.100.07-3727.9423.50-4.4413.308.40-4.90600363.SH联创光电12.137.89-350.761.104410.1416.956.816.3013.907.60688167.SH炬光科技1.111.1760.190.15-2054.5544.18-10.3717.1613.01-4.15002222.SZ福晶科技1.981.9700.550.56252.9357.524.5927.8328.520.69600071.SH凤凰光学3.903.63-7-0.15-0.256110.259.97-0.29-3.89-6.75-2.86300331.SZ苏大维格3.983.93-1-0.27-0.04-8513.3918.354.96-6.71-1.025.69301183.SZ东田微1.000.60-400.14-0.04-13128.117.66-20.4514.33-7.36-21.68数据来源：，LED：去库存接近尾声，全年有望实现前低后高式增长随着国内政策调整，经济逐步复苏。我们认为国内显示有望受益G端和B端需求双重驱动。表10：LED相关公司业绩情况（亿元）收入(亿元)净利率()毛利率()归母净利润(亿元)财务费用(亿元)公司名称22Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1YoY(pct)22Q123Q122Q123Q1YoY22Q123Q1三安光电31.0729.08-6.4213.807.34-46.8021.9316.87-23.094.292.14-50.220.760.76华灿光电6.773.99-40.981.05-31.02-3043.2012.341.76-85.760.07-1.24-1837.150.290.24乾照光电4.034.5913.80-1.84-22.241108.5921.284.38-79.44-0.07-1.021317.500.250.22兆驰股份37.3336.95-1.029.5010.8414.1214.1518.3329.503.463.8310.820.360.37聚灿光电4.815.4312.895.15-1.40-127.1713.998.61-38.420.25-0.08-130.670.03-0.03鸿利智汇8.377.16-14.486.316.391.1519.9121.327.060.540.45-15.300.030.01木林森39.9540.802.134.473.37-24.5931.9929.97-6.301.821.41-22.620.600.71国星光电7.227.9710.322.912.72-6.7410.1912.1118.830.210.222.89-0.040.00瑞丰光电3.093.05-1.28-1.24-5.15314.4213.3712.52-6.37-0.04-0.16333.970.010.03翰博高新7.214.64-35.664.560.97-78.6816.2513.97-14.040.260.03-88.340.090.09芯瑞达2.133.0040.8213.5212.89-4.6718.2717.32-5.190.290.3934.250.01-0.02隆利科技3.161.56-50.55-5.99-8.4541.027.406.44-13.00-0.19-0.13-29.920.020.01聚飞光电5.085.375.7910.7110.891.6725.0224.47-2.180.520.5811.110.040.06利亚德17.6217.821.176.406.30-1.5630.8130.21-1.931.151.226.070.210.19洲明科技15.4716.285.215.038.7874.4424.6332.1430.500.781.4586.240.150.18艾比森4.937.0943.973.9411.12182.6229.7434.3115.370.190.79306.550.010.03奥拓电子2.021.71-15.41-3.661.46-139.8736.9246.7526.63-0.070.03-143.320.000.02雷曼光电2.912.69-7.532.72-0.92-133.8622.9425.6211.680.08-0.02-122.450.030.06联建光电1.992.2513.02-6.11-9.1449.5132.6326.37-19.19-0.12-0.1963.010.090.09数据来源：，

PCB产业链：CCL阶段性低点已过，PCB盈利能力有望企稳我们维持中游CCL复苏预判，PCB厂商受到多个下游影响，需求+成本影响盈利能力，多因素影响下盈利有望企稳。11：PCB相关公司业绩情况亿元收入净利润毛利率（）净利率（）证券代码 证券简称YOYYOY22Q123Q1YOY22Q123Q1YOY22Q123Q1（pct）22Q123Q1(pct)002636.SZ 金安国纪 9.848.52-130.160.191412.0211.98-0.041.682.210.53603186.SH 华正新材 8.377.58-90.32-0.08-12515.2711.43-3.843.79-1.04-4.83600183.SH 生益科技 47.6837.56-215.072.43-5223.6519.74-3.9110.636.46-4.17688519.SH 南亚新材 9.516.97-270.71-0.09-11314.559.11-5.447.47-1.34-8.80603228.SH 景旺电子 23.6823.41-11.792.131919.5024.444.947.549.091.55300657.SZ 弘信电子 7.776.40-18-0.35-0.83-1404.632.74-1.89-4.46-12.98-8.52002384.SZ 东山精密 73.1265.12-113.634.713014.1214.800.684.967.242.28002938.SZ 鹏鼎控股 70.7666.67-65.934.19-2919.8220.911.088.386.28-2.11002436.SZ 兴森科技 12.7212.52-21.96-0.02-10129.6724.15-5.5215.37-0.19-15.56002916.SZ 深南电路 33.1627.85-163.482.06-4126.7923.05-3.7410.497.40-3.10300476.SZ 胜宏科技 20.2917.58-132.021.25-3821.6120.11-1.509.967.11-2.85002913.SZ 奥士康 10.5810.06-51.491.31-1222.9825.952.9714.1213.05-1.07002815.SZ 崇达技术 15.0214.27-51.721.56-926.9328.731.8011.4710.93-0.53688183.SH 生益电子 8.607.43-140.75-0.04-10524.0418.25-5.798.68-0.54-9.22002463.SZ 沪电股份 19.1718.68-32.502.00-2025.9525.73-0.2213.0210.72-2.29603328.SH 依顿电子 7.147.90110.380.7710114.0821.076.995.339.694.36603920.SH 世运电路 9.7810.1540.410.686513.8719.035.164.216.692.48603936.SH 博敏电子 6.616.56-10.410.21-4915.8614.14-1.726.193.20-2.99605058.SH 澳弘电子 2.772.55-80.330.31-923.6527.473.8212.0411.98-0.06605258.SH 协和电子 1.591.44-90.090.08-1922.0119.34-2.675.895.24-0.65002579.SZ 中京电子 7.246.08-160.06-0.62-114916.568.52-8.040.82-10.21-11.03603386.SH 骏亚科技 6.315.70-100.310.13-5919.9519.56-0.394.912.20-2.71688655.SH 迅捷兴 1.031.0740.030.0610119.7321.982.253.025.872.85000823.SZ 超声电子 17.1712.70-260.890.14-8417.9418.510.575.161.09-4.07300739.SZ 明阳电路 5.484.31-210.470.24-4923.8824.740.868.655.66-2.99300814.SZ 中富电路 3.743.13-160.200.15-2916.2214.82-1.405.474.65-0.82300852.SZ 四会富仕 2.573.15230.350.473625.8129.003.1913.5214.951.43300903.SZ 科翔股份 6.346.28-10.19-0.38-30616.097.53-8.572.92-6.09-9.01300936.SZ 中英科技 0.400.64600.070.07-332.8127.87-4.9418.3111.06-7.25300964.SZ 本川智能 1.431.28-100.140.07-4719.5519.880.339.775.73-4.04301041.SZ 金百泽 1.411.4960.010.0459324.7026.191.490.392.592.19002134.SZ 天津普林 1.571.45-80.030.0711213.9215.561.642.124.852.73，天风证券研究所被动元器件：下游产业去库存接近尾声，下半年有望好转2023Q25G表12：被动元器件相关公司业绩情况（亿元）收入22Q1 23Q1 YOY22Q1净利润23Q1YOY22Q1毛利(%) 净利(%)YOY YOY23Q1 22Q1 23Q1证券代码证券简称(pct)(pct)000636.SZ风华高科11.029.34-15.251.800.58-67.6624.98511.075-13.9116.536.55-9.98300408.SZ三环集团14.0211.89-15.164.983.20-35.6849.37439.408-9.9735.5326.96-8.58002859.SZ洁美科技3.283.08-6.050.320.32-1.7132.49132.410-0.089.7710.220.45300806.SZ斯迪克4.784.830.970.180.2013.7723.54224.9661.423.614.180.57002138.SZ顺络电子10.0810.251.661.630.81-50.5236.39532.182-4.2119.609.81-9.79300285.SZ国瓷材料8.377.86-6.092.081.23-40.6841.56137.303-4.2625.1316.79-8.33002782.SZ可立克4.6510.74131.050.210.3044.0615.81512.373-3.444.423.34-1.08002885.SZ京泉华4.547.8172.160.100.56441.0412.33215.9093.582.047.165.11300319.SZ麦捷科技7.996.72-15.910.440.476.9516.49717.7201.226.007.671.67002199.SZ东晶电子0.450.39-13.78-0.05-0.14170.588.39816.9738.57-11.57-36.01-24.45-12.73300460.SZ惠伦晶体1.220.59-51.600.05-0.41-868.7127.647-40.394.41-69.97-74.389600237.SH铜峰电子2.502.614.660.210.226.0624.42325.0790.668.328.09-0.23603738.SH泰晶科技2.621.75-33.020.740.19-74.0442.72923.637-19.0928.4111.18-17.23600563.SH法拉电子8.409.2910.622.042.3113.1037.81037.653-0.1624.6524.890.24002484.SZ江海股份9.8111.8320.491.181.5431.3525.08925.7890.7011.9513.061.11603989.SH艾华集团8.697.05-18.881.150.90-21.2725.24027.6382.4013.4212.78-0.63603267.SH鸿远电子7.034.35-38.062.591.02-60.7556.75249.911-6.8436.8323.04-13.79603678.SH火炬电子8.436.42-23.901.941.26-34.8340.64241.4730.8323.3419.89-3.45300726.SZ宏达电子4.293.87-9.881.761.45-17.4470.74866.482-4.2745.0040.78-4.22000733.SZ振华科技18.8621.0211.466.077.3520.9662.85963.5320.6732.2134.962.75数据来源：，面板行业：进入复苏周期我们预计2023年面板产业进入复苏周期，供需逐渐恢复较为健康的状态，行业主基调为业绩企稳。随着疫情形势改观，全球经济回调，我们预计消费电子终端需求有望回暖。表13：面板行业相关公司业绩情况（亿元）收入净利润毛利率（%）净利率（%）证券代码证券简称22Q123Q1YOY22Q123Q1YOY22Q123Q1YOY(pct)22Q123Q1YOY(pct)000100.SZTCL科技405.67394.43-2.7713.53-5.49-140.5912.2610.36-1.905.780.28-5.50000725.SZ京东方A504.76379.73-24.7743.892.47-94.3621.386.84-14.536.39-3.25-9.64000050.SZ深天马A86.7577.08-11.150.79-6.62-938.2913.875.95-7.920.91-8.59-9.50002387.SZ维信诺14.907.69-48.38-5.80-7.6631.950.26-24.51-24.77-47.01-120.69-73.68688055.SH龙腾光电13.137.68-41.531.55-1.12-172.1322.624.89-17.7311.82-14.58-26.40688538.SH和辉光电-U10.098.47-16.05-1.89-4.26125.45-8.46-21.46-13.00-18.72-50.28-31.56000045.SZ深纺织A6.716.791.310.180.13-25.6313.5511.41-2.143.432.57-0.86002876.SZ三利谱5.524.26-22.920.680.12-81.9421.0814.22-6.8612.982.94-10.03000536.SZ华映科技7.182.45-65.88-1.41-3.56151.6910.79-64.25-75.04-19.13-145.44-126.31002106.SZ莱宝高科15.8811.53-27.390.780.21-72.6513.7612.33-1.434.951.85-3.09003019.SZ宸展光电5.033.64-27.620.590.38-35.9025.9429.613.6611.7010.36-1.34300088.SZ长信科技17.1714.72-14.281.811.04-42.5422.1414.75-7.3910.987.39-3.58300128.SZ锦富技术2.003.2763.930.07-0.36-634.5114.5017.442.943.26-12.07-15.33300939.SZ秋田微2.542.42-4.550.260.3222.3926.4129.923.5110.2113.072.85301106.SZ骏成科技1.441.17-18.780.210.12-45.6026.5822.26-4.3214.759.88-4.87301379.SZ天山电子2.682.9610.480.220.2618.3919.3919.480.098.328.920.60000020.SZ深华发A1.721.762.380.060.068.9112.1513.831.693.443.660.22002952.SZ亚世光电1.641.9216.790.100.1777.8315.9420.204.265.608.953.35688496.SH清越科技1.822.4132.25-0.030.04-259.0119.3414.79-4.55-2.40-0.192.22605218.SH伟时电子3.282.88-12.440.060.1177.0015.6818.272.591.893.811.93000413.SZ东旭光电13.1511.41-13.24-5.20-2.25-56.718.997.38-1.62-39.35-20.4018.95600552.SH凯盛科技13.1212.38-5.580.250.2916.3114.7812.86-1.933.403.31-0.09600707.SH彩虹股份23.5722.62-4.05-7.41-4.60-37.92-20.14-6.3513.79-31.50-20.3911.10603773.SH沃格光电3.563.46-2.710.020.01-54.4822.0020.02-1.982.062.260.19003015.SZ日久光电1.120.93-16.510.13-0.06-147.5431.2120.30-10.9111.66-6.64-18.30300566.SZ激智科技5.164.15-19.540.380.28-24.8919.6519.880.237.846.79-1.05688299.SH长阳科技2.852.51-12.000.350.25-29.4929.3527.69-1.6612.409.94-2.46688181.SH八亿时空2.581.91-25.980.630.18-70.5248.3140.81-7.5024.259.66-14.59603629.SH利通电子3.844.3011.890.170.15-13.7014.9013.89-1.014.403.37-1.03301045.SZ天禄科技2.001.36-31.890.200.04-79.1820.8317.89-2.9410.173.11-7.06300940.SZ南极光2.040.94-53.730.12-0.30-357.8816.25-7.77-24.025.76-32.08-37.84301321.SZ翰博高新7.214.64-35.660.260.03-88.3416.2513.97-2.284.560.97-3.59688150.SH莱特光电0.740.70-5.390.320.24-27.0362.6970.988.2843.2933.39-9.90，投资建议MR带动消费电子复苏经济下行预期下iPhone销量呈现出一定的稳健性&增长韧性，对于上游供应链厂商业绩形成有力支撑iPhone+销量稳健，份额持续提升。图26：苹果单季度智能手机销量&份额IDC，2023年是iPhone创新周期的大年：23年中框材质有望创新；后置光学有望升级，promax机型或将搭载潜望式摄像头；充电接口预计从lightning转换为typeC。23年实现量产，定价为$3000+，看好苹果首款虚拟现实产品在硬件配置+用户交互+应用生态+多终端联动的领先性，有望引领虚拟现实用户体验升级+新一轮消费电子创新周期。在发MRMR头显产品、添加和优化创新功能。图27：苹果MR设备硬件拆解nweon，新媒网，电科技，AI对电子行业景气度的拉动我们认为基于下述假设，GPT目前在服务器上花费的成本至少为3.47亿美元。首先，我AITomGoldstein1个2CPU、8GPU（A100，80G内存、DRAM与其它组件组成，这个服务器ChatGPTAI15-2020个单词/秒172.8（=20×60×60×24/10000）SimilarWeb113001000500个单词ChatGPT50亿单词（=1000×500万，这里需要注意的是，1000万人使用时间实际上并