巨变趋势：五个全球变化重塑生活世界++Megatrends：Five+Global+Shifts+Reshaping+the+World+We+Live+In

Megatrends

Fiveglobalshiftsreshapingtheworldwelivein

October2022

Introduction

AlmostadecadehaspassedsincethePwCnetworkidentifiedfiveMegatrends

(2013),whichwecharacterisedasdeepandprofoundtrends,globalinscopeand

long-termineffect,touchingeveryoneontheplanetandshapingourworldfor

manyyearstocome.ItisnowclearthattheseMegatrendshavetransformedour

worldevenfasterthanwepredicted.Largelythisisduetotheinteractionbetween

thetrends,whichhasturbochargedboththespeedandpervasivenessofchange.

WhiletheMegatrendshavebeenunfolding,theyhavealsoevolved,andtheway

theyaremanifestingtodayhasshiftedcomparedtotenyearsago.

ItistimetorevisittheMegatrendstounderstandhowtheyhavechanged,what

futuretheymaycreatein2030,andwhatquestionsthiswillpresenttohumanity.

Contents

MegatrendOne:Climatechange04

MegatrendTwo:Technologicaldisruption08

MegatrendThree:Demographicshifts12

MegatrendFour:Fracturingworld16

MegatrendFive:Socialinstability20

Closing24

Megatrends:Climatechange|4

MegatrendOne

Climatechange

Whilehumanityistryingtofigureoutwaystoreducecarbonemissions,greenhousegaslevelsintheatmosphereareworsening,globaltemperaturesarerising,andextremeweathereventsarebecomingmorefrequentandmoresevere.

Existentialquestion:

Whatwillittaketosolvetheclimatecrisisbeforethedamageisirreparable?

ROWBRICOECD

•Amsterdam,Netherlands

•Bangkok,Thailand

•Basra,Iraq

Climatechangeisincreasinglyimpactingallaspectsofourlives,andthemassiveeffortsthathumanityneedstoundertaketomitigateandadapttoclimatechangewillbehighlydisruptiveandarelikelytohavesignificantunintendedconsequences.Globaltemperatureswillcontinuetoriseandareexpectedtoreach1.5oCoverpre-industriallevelsby20301.Thislevelofglobalwarmingwilltriggermorefrequentandmoresevereclimatehazards,disruptingsupplychainsandpartiallysubmergingseveralmajorcitiesaroundtheworld.Biodiversitywillcontinuetodecrease,seriouslyjeopardisingourfoodsystemsandnutrition,andwaterresourceswilldwindle2.

Theurgentneedforhumanitytoreconfigurealmosteverythingwedo–howwemovearound,feedourselves,build,produce,andpowerthings–inordertotransitiontoamoresustainablewayoflifeisincreasinglyunderstoodasvisibleeffectsofclimatechangearebecomingmoreacute.Thistransition,however,willmostlikelynotbeorderlyandwillhaveunintendedconsequences.Productionofhydrocarbonsmaydecreasefasterthandemand,creating

shortagesandpricevolatility.Corporationswillincreasinglycompeteovercriticalresources,whichwillleadtoaracetoacquirecompaniescontrollingthoseresources(e.g.,lithium,cobalt).

GovernmentsandconsumerswillincreasinglyholdorganisationsaccountableforCO2emissionsandothernon-sustainablebehaviours,beitthroughregulatorychanges,incentives,orshiftsinbuyingbehaviour.Andshareholders,concernedaboutthefinancialrisksattributabletodeteriorating-climatehazardsembeddedintheirportfolios,willputincreasingpressureonbusinessestoassessandrespondtothesehazardsthroughouttheirvaluechain,therebycontributingtoacceleratingthepaceofdecarbonisation.

Bytheendofthedecade,basedonthechoiceshumanitywillhavemade,wewillhavelaidthegroundworkforasustainableworld,oraneraofclimatecatastrophe.

Temperaturesinsomeregionswillrisemuchfasterthaninothers

Annualmeantemperaturechange(°C)relativeto1850-1900

Simulatedchangeat1.5°Cglobalwarming

00.511.522.533.544.5

Change(。C)

55.566.57

Warmer

Source:FigureSPM.5,Panel(b)fromIPCC,2021:SummaryforPolicymakers.In:ClimateChange2021:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheSixthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Masson-Delmotte,V.,P.Zhai,A.Pirani,S.L.Connors,C.Péan,S.Berger,N.Caud,Y.Chen,L.Goldfarb,M.I.Gomis,M.Huang,K.Leitzell,E.Lonnoy,J.B.R.Matthews,

T.K.Maycock,T.Waterfield,O.Yelekçi,R.Yu,andB.Zhou(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA,pp.3−32,doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

1IPCC,2021,ClimateChange2021:ThePhysicalScienceBasis

2IPCC,2022,ClimateChange2022:Impacts,Adaptation,andVulnerability

Risingsealevelsendangermajorcitiesandcountries

Citiesexpectedtobeatleastpartiallysubmergedby2030,ifnocoastaldefencesareemployed

•HoChiMinhCity,Vietnam

•NewOrleans,USA

•Venice,Italy

Landprojectedtobebelowtidelinein2030(orange)

Source:ClimateCentral,CoastalRiskScreeningTool

By2030,nearlyhalfoftheworld’spopulationwillliveunder

conditionsofseverewaterstress

Populationslivinginareasofwaterstress

2005vs.2030

SevereMediumLowNo

2005

2030

2005

2030

2005

2030

05001000150020002500300035004000

Millionsofpeople

Note:OECD=OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationand

Development;BRIC=Brazil,Russia,India,China;ROW=RestofWorld

Megatrends:Climatechange|5

Source:UNEP(2015)Optionsfordecouplingeconomicgrowth

fromwateruseandwaterpollution.ReportoftheInternational

ResourcePanelWorkingGrouponSustainableWaterManagement

Megatrends:Climatechange|6

Possibleimplicationsforindividuals,organisations,andnationstates

Implicationsforindividuals

•Lossofhousing:Climatechangeincreasestheseverityandfrequencyofflooding,storms,andwildfiresdestroyingpeople’slivesandlivelihoods.Thisisnolongerrestrictedtocertaincountriesandregions–itishappeningeverywhereandisaffectingpeopleofallwalksoflife.

•Increasedcostofliving:Risingtemperaturesandextremeweathereventsdestroyharvests,leadtodroughts,andinterruptsupplychains,makingfood,water,energy,andothersuppliesmoreinsecureandexpensive.Effortstodecarbonisetheeconomyarealsocostlyandexacerbatetheissue.

•Increasedviolence:Withfood,water,andenergysuppliesincreasinglyscarce,conflictsaregrowing–withinandbetweencommunitiesandcountries.

•Healthcarerisks:Thawingofpermafrostmayunlockdeadlydiseasesfromthedistantpastthatcouldtakepandemicextent;withcertainpartsoftheglobebecomingunlivable,humansandwildlifearemovingclosertogether,increasingtheriskofzoonoticdiseases;diseases(e.g.,malaria)areatriskofspreadingtoregionspreviouslynotaffected.

Implicationsfororganisations

•Businessfailure:Businessesmaynotsurviveunlesstheyfundamentallyrethinkwhattheydo,reconfigurehowtheydothings,andactivelymanagetheirecosystems,e.g.,howwilltheymaketheirproductssustainable,howwilltheymakesuretheirsupplychainsareresilientsotheycandeliverwhattheypromisewhenit’sexpected?

•Resourceinsecurityandcostincrease:Energy,water,rareearthelements,sand,andmanyothercriticalrawmaterialsaregettingincreasinglyscarce,drivingpricesup.

•Supplychaindisruption:Extremeheat,flooding,storms,andwildfiresaredestroyingproductionsites,warehouses,assets,andtransportationroutes.

•Jobcreationthroughinvestmentsinclimatetech:

Justlikedigitaltransformationcreatedmanyjobsin

IT-relatedareas,greentransformationiscreatingawealthofnewjobsinareaswedon’tyetunderstand,knowhowtoteach,orarehelpingpeopletolearn.

Implicationsfornationstates

•Loomingfinancialcatastrophe:Countriesmostaffectedbyclimatechangefacemanychallenges,includinghugecostforprotectingtheirlandandinfrastructureagainstextremeweathereventsand/orrepairingit,lostrevenueandjobsinagricultureandrelatedsectors,andreductioninforeigninvestmentbecausemultinationalsredesignsupplychains.

•Threattoglobalfoodsecurityandagriculturalexports:

Extremeweathereventsputharvestsatrisk,leadingtofood

crisesatnational–andincreasinglyinternational–levels.

•Massmigration:Withclimatechangedestroyingpeople’slivesandlivelihoodsincountriesmostaffected,massmigrationtowardcountrieslessaffectedisgoingtoaccelerate,generallyfromthesouthtothenorthandfromcoastaltomountainousregions.

•Neweconomicdependencies:Withclimatechangedrivingthefundamentalreconfigurationofhowpeoplemovearound,feedthemselves,buildthings,manufacturethings,andmanyotheractivities,economicrelationshipsarechanging,e.g.,weakerdependencyoncountriesexportingoilandgasandstrongerdependencyoncountriesexportinghydrogen,lithium,nickel,orcobalt.

HowistheworlddealingwiththisMegatrend?

Mostoftheworldnowacknowledgestheseverityoftheclimatecrisisandtheneedtochangetomoresustainablebehavioursacrosstheentireeconomy.Manycountriesareincreasingtheirshareofrenewableenergyproduction.Moreandmoreorganisationsaremakingnet-zerocommitments(thoughmanytaketoolonggiventheurgencyoftheclimatecrisisandrelyheavilyoncarbonoffsets).Somecompaniesarestartingtoelectrifytheir

productionprocesses,andprogressisbeingmadeintheareaofcarboncapturetechnologies.Peoplearestartingtoshifttheirbehaviours.

Butthetransitiontoacarbon-neutraleconomyisgoingtobehard.Therearemanyinterdependenciesbetweenplayers.Gettingthereconfigurationrightthereforedependsonhavingaholisticpictureandonnewtrustedpartnershipsbetweentheseactors.Ifnotmanagedwell,theseinterdependenciesriskslowingdownprogressorbackfiring.Theinvestmentneedishuge.Therearesignificantunintendedconsequences;forexample,strandedassetswhoseownersorotherbeneficiariesmighttrytoblockprogress.Keytechnologiesarenotyetdevelopedornotatscale.Manyregulatorychangesareneededbutaredifficulttogetthroughpolarisedparliaments.Humanityisinaraceagainsttime–andthestakesarehigh.Thereisnotimetoloseforallofustotakeaction.

Megatrends:Climatechange|7

MegatrendTwo

Technological

disruption

Transformativetechnologychangeshowwefunctionin

theworldandhowweunderstandhumanity.Itenables

hugevaluecreation,butharmfulconsequencesare–

andwillincreasinglybe–difficulttomitigate.

Existentialquestion:

Whatdoesitmeantobehumaninaworldinwhichtechnologyincreasinglyoverlapswithandaugmentswhathumansdoandhowtousetechnologytoimprovelifewithoutcausingundueharm?

MegatrendsTechnologicaldisruption|8

Numberofdeals

30%

20%

10%

0%

Transformativetechnologiesaredrivinghugevaluecreation.Technologicalinnovationcontinuesatbreath-takingspeed.Ahostofnewtechnologies1–acrossareasasdiverseasartificialintelligence(AI),robotics,energystorage,DNAsequencing,blockchaintechnology,andmaterialssciences–areapproachingtippingpointsoverthenextfivetotenyears,whendroppingcostsunleashdemandacrosssectorsandgeographies,whichwillencourageevenmoreinnovation.Organisations’focusisexpandingrapidlyfromtechnologiesaimedatimprovingtheefficiencyofback-officeprocessestosector-specificapplicationsthathavethepotentialtorevolutionisemanysectors.

It’shardtoimaginehowhumanitycouldaddressanyofthechallengescausedbytheMegatrendswithoutthehelpoftechnology–justthinkabouttheroleofclimate

techtocombatglobalwarming,forexample.However,technologycanalsoleadtosignificantproblems,includingcybersecurityissues,riseandspreadofdisinformationandmisinformation,mentalhealthissues,jobloss/insecurity.Institutionsareincreasinglystrugglingtokeepupwiththepaceofchange,whichcreatesamismatchbetweenthecontextinwhichpeopleandbusinessesoperateandwhatisfeasiblefromatechnologystandpoint.Regulatorsandselectcompaniescontinuetoattempttomitigatesomeoftheharmfuleffects,butitisdifficulttoseehowsolutionswillscaleupfastenough.

Technologyisdramaticallyenhancingthecapacityofindividualsandorganisations,butthemoreitoverlapswithandaugmentswhathumansdo,themoreitblursthenotionofwhatitmeanstobehuman.

Thepaceoftechnologicalinnovationisincreasing

Timeittooktohit50millionusers

selectproductsandtechnologies

64years

62years

50years

46years

Airlines

Automobiles

Telephone

28years22years18years14years

12years

7years

4years

1year

Electricity

CreditCards

Television

ATMs

Computers

MobilePhones

Internet

Facebook

19days

WeChat

PokemonGo

Source:VisualCapitalist

TechnologyisaprerequisiteforaddressingthechallengescausedbytheMegatrends,forinstanceclimatechange

Investmentintoclimatetechstart-upsandnumberofdeals

2013-2021

Investment(US$bn)

80

60

40

20

0

800

600

400

200

0

H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1

1313141415151616171718181919202021

NumberofdealsEnergyMobilityandtransportFinancialservicesBuiltenvironmentFood,agricultureandlanduseGHGcapture,removalandstorage

Industry,manufacturingandresourcemanagementClimatechangemanagementandreporting

Source:PwCStateofClimateTech2021

1ARK,BigIdeas2022;GregSatell,MaterialsScienceMayBetheMostImportantTechnologyoftheNextDecade.Here’sWhy

2MedicalNewsToday,Whattoknowaboutsocialmediaandmentalhealth

Technologyhasseriousunintendedconsequences;socialmedia,forexample,iswidelyrecognised2tobeadriverofmentalhealthissues,especiallyamongyouth

PercentageofUSyouthwithamajordepressiveepisodeinthepastyear

2004-2020

FemaleMale

200420122020

Source:SubstanceAbuseandMentalHealthDataArchive(SAMHDA)

Megatrends:Technologicaldisruption|9

Megatrends:Technologicaldisruption|10

Possibleimplicationsforindividuals,organisations,andnationstates

Implicationsforindividuals

•Significantcapacityenhancement:Technologyismakinginformationmoreavailable,processinginformationandcollab-orationsmootherandmoreeffective,boostingsensorialinput,improvingoperations,helpingself-actualisation,therebyallowingindividualsandteamstoachievemore,withlesseffort.

•Massivedisruptionofwork:Asignificantshareofjobsisatriskofautomation.AndalthoughAIwilllikelycreatemanynewjobs,thetransitionwillbedisruptiveformanypeople,requiringthemtoupskilltomaintainemployability.

•Lossofprivacy:ThevalueofdataisfurtherincreasinggiventhepressuretofeedAIwithreal-lifedata,andthetechnologytocapture,process,andcombinedatainrealtimeisubiquitous,makingitmoredifficultforpeopletoprotecttheirdigitalidentities.

•Increasingdisinformationandmisinformation:Distinguishingtruthfromfictiongetsmoredifficultinaworldwhereeveryonecanpublishcontentandsocialmediaalgorithmsfeedpeoplewith

whattheywanttohearorwhatothersmaywantthemtobelieve.

•Growingmentalhealthissues:Theprevalenceofdigitaltech-nologyinallaspectsofourliveswillaccentuateitsharmfuleffectsonbrainhealth,includingattention-deficitsymptoms,impairedemotionalandsocialintelligence,technologyaddiction,socialisolation,stuntedbraindevelopmentanddisruptedsleep.

Implicationsfororganisations

•Competitivedifferentiation:Organisationscandifferentiatefromthecompetitionandgrowsignificantlybyredefiningthevaluetheyaregoingtocreatefortheircustomersandsocietyatlarge–andusingthefullpoweroftechnologytodoso.

•Businessfailure:Businessesthataren’tabletodigitallytransformandspeeduptheirexecutionmayfail,becominglessrelevanttostakeholdersandlosingcustomers.

•Concentrationofpower:Manysmallbusinessesaregoingtostruggle,unabletobenefitfromnetworkeffectsandaffordthehugetechnologyinvestmentneededtocompeteinthedigitalworld.Joblossfromautomationwilldrivethedevelopmentofsomelocalbusinesses—buttheywillhaveahardtimecompetingagainsttheirlargercounterparts.

•Mismatchbetweenrequiredandavailableskills:Organisationsareincreasinglystrugglingtofindenoughtalenttohelpthembe-comefitforthedigitalage,makingthewarfortalentinScience,Technology,Engineering,andMathematics(STEM)areasevenfiercer.Atthesametime,theyhavemanypeoplewithlegacy

skillsontheirpayrollwhosejobsaregoingtobeautomated.

•Increasedcyberrisk:VastInternetofThings(IoT)environmentsattractsabotage,5Gand6Gconnectivitydrivemoresophisticat-edattacks,and“everythingasaservice”turnscloudprovidersintohugelylucrativetargetsforcyber-attackers.

Implicationsfornationstates

•Governmentsstrugglingtoevolve:Institutionsdesignedtoprovidestabilityintheworldarestrugglingtokeepupwiththepaceoftechnologicalchange.Manyaretryingtoreplicatewhathasworkedinalegacyworldratherthandesigningforthedigitalworld–andriskfallingshortofexpectations.

•Creationoftechnology-basedinstitutions:Strugglingtomakelegacyinstitutionsfitforthedigitalage,governmentswillcreatenewtechnology-basedinstitutionstodealwiththeloomingchallenges.

•Pressuretomitigateunintendedconsequencesoftechnology:

Governmentsareissuingnewregulationstocontaintheharmfuleffectsoftechnology,butareoftenrunningbehind,lackingtalentandfundstokeepupwithbigtechcompanies.

•Changingeconomicdependencies:Accesstocriticaltechnol-ogies(e.g.,5G/6Gtechnology,climatetech,nanotechnology)isbecomingasimportantasaccesstonaturalresourcesandisthereforedrivingnewalliances,protectionistmoves,andfracturesintheworld.

HowistheworlddealingwiththisMegatrend?

Technologyishavingameaningfulpositiveimpactatalllevelsofsocietyandwillplayamajorroleinsolvingsomeofthechallengestheworldisfacing.Justthinkabouttheimportanceofclimatetechnologytofightclimatechangeorhealthtechnologytosupportageingpopulations.Alotofworkisbeingdonearound“TechforGood,”usingtechnologytoaffectdeliberate,positivesocialbenefit.

However,theregenerallyisn’tsufficientconsiderationoftheunintendedconsequencesoftechnologyinthedesignprocess,and,giventheubiquitousnatureoftechnology,thoseunintendedconsequencesarelikelytohappenquickly,bemoresevere,andaffectmorepeople.Withoutintensefocusonpreemptingthoseunintendedconsequencesbeforetheyappear,thereisgreatpotentialfornegativeimplicationsoftechnologytooutweighpositiveones.TheimpactonotherMegatrendswillbedisastrousifthisslowsinnovation.

Megatrends:Technologicaldisruption|11

MegatrendThree

Demographic

shifts

Themedianageinallcountriesaroundtheglobeis

increasing,butatdifferentratesandfromadifferent

startingposition.Thisdemographicchangeiscausing

somecountries’socialsystemstobreakdownandalack

ofworkersincriticalareas,whereasothercountriesface

skyrocketingun-andunder-employment,weakening

economiesfromemigratingcitizens,andstrainon

socialsafetynets.

Existentialquestion:

Howtohelpgroupsofpeoplewithdifferentneedswhenmoney,experience,power,ambitionandcapacityaredistributeddifferentially?

Megatrends:Demographicshifts|12

Medianageinallcountriesaroundtheglobeisincreasing,butatdifferentratesandfromadifferentstartingposition

Medianageofpopulation

2020-2050,selectcountries

Incountrieswithhighmedianage,theold-age

dependencyratioisincreasingquickly,putting

massivestrainonsocialwelfaresystems

Old-agedependencyratio

Numberofpeopleaged65+per100peopleofworkingage

(aged20-64),selectcountries

202020302050

US

Canada

UK

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

SouthKorea

Japan

0255075

Source:UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2019).WorldPopulationProspects2019,customdataacquiredviawebsite;PwCanalysis.

60

40

20

SouthKorea

Japan

Italy

Germany

China

Brazil

UK

US

India

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Congo

Niger

0

2020203020402050

Source:UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2019).WorldPopulationProspects2019,customdataacquiredviawebsite;PwCanalysis

Incountrieswithlowmedianage,thenumberofpeoplereadytoentertheworkforcewillgrowmassively

Numberofpeoplebyagegroup(million)

Agegroup

75+60–7445–5930–4415–29

0–14

India

Africa

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500

0

0

200020102020203020402050

200020102020203020402050

Source:UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2019).Megatrends:Demographicshifts|13

WorldPopulationProspects2019,customdataacquiredviawebsite;PwCanalysis.

Severaldemographicfactors,includinggender,ethnicity,andorigin,impacttheworld,forexamplebychangingthecompositionoftheworkforceordrivingpolarisation.ButtherearetwofactorsthatstandoutaspotentforcesthatcanacceleratethedynamicsandnegativeconsequencesoftheotherMegatrends:ageandpopulationgrowth.

Somesocietiesareageingrapidly,andtheirworkforcesareshrinkingasashareofthetotalpopulation.Thegrowingold-agedependencyratioputsincreasingstrainonsocialwelfaresystemsandisincreasingthepressuretoimplementaprofoundandlife-alteringoverhaul.Agesegregation–forexample,drivenbyyoungerworkersmovingtocitiestopursuejobopportunitiesandleavingruralareashollowedout–increasesdisparityintheworldviewsandpoliticalbeliefsofdifferentagegroups.However,withtheolderpopulationoutnumberingtheyoungeroneinthesesocieties,theoldergenerationisincreasinglywinningthevoteanddecidingonthefutureoftheyoungergenerationwhomayholdanopposingview1.Consumptionpatternsareshiftingquicklyassocietiesage,challengingbusinessesandgovernmentstoworkdifferentlytomakesurethattheyareprovidingwhattheirconstituentsactuallyneed.Criticalworkersaregoingtobeinshortsupply,especiallyinprofessionsthatdon’thavealargeinfluxofnewtalent(e.g.,construction)andthosethatareinhigherdemandbecausesocietyisageing(e.g.,homecare).

Othersocietieshaveayoungerdemographicandaregrowing,whichwillcreatelargerlabourforcesandconsumermarkets.Growingpopulationsmustbefed,housed,educated,andemployedforproductivepotentialtoberealised.Countrieswithlowmedianageareincreasinglystrugglingwithchronicallyhighyouthunemploymentandunderemployment,nomatterwhatlevelofeducationhasbeenachievedbytheseindividuals2–and,ifunsuccessfulinaddressingthisissue,theyarelikelytofaceincreasingsocialunrest.Risingemigrationofthemostentrepreneurialamongtheyoungwhoareseekingopportunitiesisweakeningtheeconomiesofthesecountrieswithlowmedianage.

Countrieswithhighandlowmedianagearestrugglingwiththechallengesposedbydemographicchange.Takingamoreholisticviewoftheworldcanbepartofthesolutiontomakesocietiesmoreresilient(e.g.,controlledmigration,remoteworking,buildingoflocaleconomies).

1BlairSheppard,InfiniteVariety:WhyWeNeedtoTakeaBroaderLookattheSocialChallengesCausedbyOurAgingPopulations

2InternationalLabourOrganization,ReportonEmploymentinAfrica:TacklingtheYouthEmploymentChallenge

Megatrends:Demographicshifts|14

Possibleimplicationsforindividuals,organisations,andnationstates

ImplicationsforindividualsImplicationsfororganisations

Implicationsfornationstates

•Unaffordableretirement:Withsocialwelfaresystemsbeingchallengedlikeneverbefore,peopleincountrieswithhighmedianagecannolongerexpecttheirpensiontopayforadecentliving.Andwiththeyoungerpopulationincountrieswithlowmedianageincreasinglyleavingthefamily