讲义课件2015年会csv forecast

EngineShopVisitForecastingGregSlaterTechnicalReviewMeetingSuzhou,4-6November2015aretrademarksofCFMInternational,a50/50joint betweenSnecma(Safrangroup)andGE.Theinformationinthis GregSlater苏州,2015年11月4-6aretrademarksofCFMInternational,a50/50joint betweenSnecma(Safrangroup)andGE.Theinformationinthis TableofContentsEngineManagementGoalsShopVisitForecastingFactorsStepsForCustomersToShopVisitCapacityShortfallEngineStaggeringSummary3/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,20154/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015EngineManagementGoalsHighEngineReliabilityandSafetyPreventsignificantoperationaleventsAvoidanceofDisruptions(D&C)PredictableShopVisitsFewerspareenginesrequiredtosupportfleetImproved ImprovedpartsprovisioningImprovedprocedureforforecastingengineoverhaulcostsoptimizeshopcostoverownershipReducedOn-WingnnedlinemaintenanceactivityEliminationofspecialinspectionsImprovedUERRateVibrationImprovedTimeOn-On-WingWaterImprovedTroubleshootingOptimizationofCostof5/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015

6/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015ShopVisitForecastingFactorsTheon-conditionmaintenanceconceptrequiresthattheinstalledenginebetrendmonitoredandinspectedonaregularbasistodeterminethelatesttimeforremovalandoverhaul.Time&CyclesSinceLLPInstalled-DetermineswhenmodulesmustbeexposedforLLP MatchLLPlivesacrosstheTime&CyclesSinceShopVisitHour/CycleRatioCurrentEGTUtilizationOn-WingTroubleshooting7/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015 装机 小时/8/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015ShopVisitForecastingFactorsThegoalofon-conditionmaintenanceisto izethetime/cyclesanenginecanbeoperatedbetweenshopvisits.SeveralfactorsinfluencethetimebetweenoverhaulEngineConfigurationProduction/SBimplementationthatextendAnyupgradesavailabletoreduceEngineThrust-Anyopportunitytore-rateDerate-ReducesdeteriorationImprovesEGTMduringProductionEngineReliabilityOverhauledEngineReliabilityWarm-up/Shut-DownPracticesColdEngine=Engineshutdown>615minWarm-upSignificantreductioninEGTduringEnvironmentalFactors-erosion,pollution,ambientWaterwashProgramTOEGTMGain~3-11oCRetention~1-6CruiseFF~0.0-0.4%9/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015 发动机构型–减推–减 提高起飞EGT冷发615分钟暖车能显著降低起飞EGT起飞EGT 恢复~3-11保持~1-6巡航燃油流量~0.0-0.4%10/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015ShopVisitForecastingFactorsOtherConsiderationsAirworthinessDirectivesOwnershipHorizonLeaseReturnRequirementsEGTandLLPRequirementsaresignificantdrivertoFleetDistributionofEnginesMayneedtobuildon-wingentitlementtostaggerfleetshopvisitscheduleinthefuturetyofSparesAvailableBudgetConstraintsShopLoading/ManpowerInHousevs.OutsourceHowquicklydoyouneedtheengineMaydriveheavyvs.light11/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015EGT 修理厂产能/12/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015NextStepsForCustomersToTakeUnderstandEnginePerformanceDeteriorationandprojecttimeon-wingforengineremovalsUnderstandLLPHardware–projectfalloutdatesbasedonlimitingLLPhardware–useprojectedLLPLimitsDevelopforecastofUnscheduledEngineRemovalsCreatewaterwashprogram Createworkscopesforenginespriortoengineremovalandhaveashopselectedfortheshopvisit–reducewing-to-wingtimeto90daysSelectfleetleaderenginesandreviewadjacenthardwareconditionstoassurethatworkscopecoversallissuesContinuetoreviewshopfindingsreportstoassureworkscopeiseffectiveCreateshopvisitforecastforallenginesthroughfirstseveralshopvisitstoassureadequatestagger(levelloadingofthevisits)isbuiltintothefleet13/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015 理解 件–根据 件时寿限制来规划到期日期–用来规划 在发动机换发前建立工作范围并确定送修的修理厂–减少翼到翼时间到90 14/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015ShopVisit–NeedtoStaggerEnginesOptionstoimproveShopVisitCapacityShortfallRemoveenginesearlytobuildbetterstaggerintofleetPurchaseadditionalSpareEnginestosupportsurgein2012-2018timevariesfleettofleetbasedonLLPforecastedShopVisitPurchasecoremodulestoimproveturntimeofenginesthruWorkscopeenginestoimproveenginestaggerBuildsomeenginesto20Kcyclestublife– ceallrotatingpartsandHPTBladesBuildsomeenginesto30KTSN(FanLLP)–WillrequireLPThardwarere cementatcoreLLPBuildbalanceofenginestoLPTLLP(25KTSN)Improvewing-to-wingtimeavailabilityofenginesgoingtotheshopbydeterminingshopandworkscopepriortoengineremoval15/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015送修额外的备发来支持2012-2018 将部分发动机设置20K循环的使 –更换所有转动部件和HPT叶将部分发动机设置30K小时的使 (风 件)–要求LPT部件 LPT 件(25K自新循环16/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015EngineStaggeringDoneforseveralreasonsMinimizecommonengineTSN/CSN–minimizingimpactof“QualityEscapes”AttempttolevelloadshopvisitsLevelloadoroptimizemaintenance$$requiredtosupportfleetMinimizes tyofspareenginesrequiredCanbeplishedbyre-positioningenginesfromAircrafttoAircraftShortRangeprogramEffectiveonallengineprogramsCanbeplishedviaWorksco andselectionofLLPLongRangeprogramEffectiveonCFMengineprogramsIfthefleetcycledistributionistight,maybedifficulttosufficientlystaggerpopulationtoavoidcapacityissue(notenoughspareengines)WhenselectingStubLifeforre-build,needtoprojectsubsequentremoval17/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015 对CFM 18/CFMProprietaryInformationsubjecttorestrictionsonthe TechnicalReviewMeeting,Suzhou,2015SummaryOverthenextthreeyears:ShopVisit ty/yearincreasesovernextthreeyearsExpectmorefullperformancerestorationworkscopesPerformanceDeteriorati