翻译真题讲义研师姐2021全年群

（提示：本讲义供上课翻阅之用。1990-2009年题目不区分英语一二，2010年及以后Peoplehavewonderedforalongtimehowtheir alities，andbehaviorsareformed.Itisnoteasytoexinwhyone isinligentandanotherisnot，orwhyoneiscooperativeandanotheriscompetitive.Socialscientistsare，ofcourse，extremelyinterestedinthesetypesofTheywanttoexinwhywepossesscertaincharacteristicsandexhibitcertainbehaviors.Therearenoclearanswersyet，buttwodistinctschoolsofthoughtonthematterhavedeveloped.Asonemightexpect，thetwoapproachesareverydifferentfromeachother.Thecontroversyisoftenconvenientlyreferredtoas”naturevs.Thosewhosupportthe“nature”sideofthebelievethatouralitiesandbehaviorpatternsarelargelydeterminedbybiologicalfactors.Thatourenvironmenthaslittle，ifanything，todowithourabilities，characteristicsandbehavioriscentraltothistheory.Takentoanextreme，thistheorymaintainsthatourbehaviorispredeterminedtosuchagreatdegreethatwearealmostcompleyernedbyourinstincts.Thosewhosupportthe“nurture”theory，thatis，theyadvocateeducation，areoftencalledbehaviorists.Theyclaimthatourenvironmentismoreimportantthanourbiologicallybasedinstinctsindetermininghowwewillact.Abehaviorist，B.F.Skinner，seeshumansasbeingswhosebehaviorisalmostcompleyshapedbytheirsurroundings.Thebehavioristsmaintainthat，likemachines，humansrespondtoenvironmentalstimuliasthebasisoftheirbehavior.Letusexaminethedifferentexnationsaboutonehumancharacteristic，inligence，offeredbythetwotheories.Supportersofthe“nature”theoryinsistthatwearebornwithacertaincapacityforlearningthatisbiologicallydetermined.Needlesstosay，theydon’tbelievethatfactorsintheenvironmenthavemuchinfluenceonwhatisbasicallyapredeterminedcharacteristic.Ontheotherhand，behavioristsarguethatourinligencelevelsaretheproductofourexperiences.(64)BehavioristssuggestthatthechildwhoisraisedinanenvironmentwheretherearemanystimuliwhichdevelophisorhercapacityforappropriateresponseswillexperiencegreaterinlectualdevelopmentThesocialandpoliticalimplicationsofthesetwotheoriesareprofound.IntheUnitedStates，blacksoftenscorebelowwhitesonstandardizedinligencetests.Thisleadssome“nature”proponentstoconcludethatblacksarebiologicallyinferiortowhites.(65)Behaviorists，incontrast，saythatdifferencesinscoresareduetothefactthatblacksareoftendeprivedofmanyoftheeducationalandotherenvironmentaladvantagesthatwhitesenjoy.MostpeoplethinkneitherofthesetheoriescanyetfullyexinhumanThefactisthattheenergycrisis，whichhassuddenlybeenofficiallyannounced，hasbeenwithusforalongtimenow，andwillbewithusforanevenlongertime.WhetherAraboilflowslyornotitiscleartoeveryonethatworldindustrycannotbeallowedtodependonsofragileabase.(71)Thesupplyofoilcanbeshutoffunexpectedlyatanytime，andinanycase，theoilwellswillallrundryinthirtyyearsorsoatthepresentrateofuse.Newsourcesofenergymustbefound，andthiswilltaketime，butitisnotlikelytoresultinanysituationthatwilleverrestorethatsenseofcheapandplentifulenergywehavehadinthetimespast.Foranindefiniteperiodfromhereon，mankindisgoingtoadvancecautiously，andconsideritselfluckythatitcanadvanceatall.Tomakethesituationworse，thereisasyetnosignthatanyslowingoftheworld’spopulationisinsight.Althoughthebirthratehasdroppedinsomenations，includingtheUnitedStates，thepopulationoftheworldseemssuretopasssixbillionandperhapsevensevenbillionasthetwenty-firstcenturyopens.Thefoodsupplywillnotincreasenearlyenoughtomatchthis，whichmeansthatweareheadingintoacrisisinthematterofproducingandmarketingfood.Takingallthisintoaccount，whatmightwereasonablyestimatesupermarketstobelikeintheyear2001?Tobeginwith，theworldfoodsupplyisgoingto esteadilytighteroverthenextthirtyyears—evenhereintheUnitedStates.By2001，thepopulationoftheUnitedStateswillbeatleasttwohundredfiftymillionandpossiblytwohundredseventymillion，andthenationwillfinditdifficulttoexpandfoodproductiontofilltheadditionalmouths.(74)ThiswillbeparticularlytruesinceenergypinchwillmakeitdifficulttocontinueagricultureinthehighenergyAmericanfashionthatmakesitpossibletocombinefewfarmerswithhighyields.Itseemsalmostcertainthatby2001theUnitedStateswillnolongerbeagreatfoodexportingnationandthatifnecessitysxportsitwillbeatthepriceofbelttighteningathome.Infact，asfooditemswillendtodeclineinqualityanddecreaseinvariety，thereisverylikelytobeincreasinguseofflavouringadditives.(75)Untilsuchtimeasmankindhasthesensetoloweritspopulationtothepointwherethenetcanprovideacomfortablesupportforall，peoplewillhavetoacceptmore“unnatural“Inligence”atbestisanassumptiveconstruct—themeaningofthewordhasneverbeenclear.(71)Thereismoreagreementonthekindsofbehaviorreferredtobythetermthanthereisonhowtointerpretorclassifythem.Butitisgenerallyagreedthata ofhighinligenceisonewhocangraspideasreadily，makedistinctions，reasonlogically，andmakeuseofverbalandmathematicalsymbolsinsolvingproblems.Aninligencetestisaroughmeasureofachild’scapacityforlearningthekindsofthingsrequiredinschool.Itdoesnotmeasurecharacter，socialadjustment，physicalendurance，manualskills，oricabilities.Itisnotsupposedto—itwasnotdesignedforsuchpurposes.(72)Tocriticiseitforsuchfailureisroughlycomparabletocriticisingathermometerfornotmeasuringwindvelocity.Theotherthingwehavetonoticeisthattheassessmentoftheinligenceofanysubjectisessentiallyacomparativeaffair.Nowsincetheassessmentofinligenceisacomparativematterwemustbesurethatthescalewithwhichwearecomparingoursubjectsprovidesa“valid”or“fair”comparison.Itisherethatsomeofthedifficultieswhichinterestusbegin.Anytestperformedinvolvesatleastthreefactors:theintentiontodoone’sbest，theknowledgerequiredforunderstandingwhatyouhavetodoandtheinlectualabilitytodoit.(74)Thefirsttwomustbeequalforallwhoarebeingcompared，ifanycomparisonintermsofinligenceistobemade.Inschoolpopulationsinourculturetheseassumptionscanbemadefairandreasonable，andthevalueofinligencetestinghasbeenprovedthoroughly.Itsvaluelies，ofcourse，initsprovidingasatisfactorybasisforprediction.Nooneisintheleastinterestedinthemarksalittlechildgetsonhistest;whatweareinterestediniswhetherwecanconcludefromhismarkonthetestthatthechildwilldobetterorworsethanotherchildrenofhisageattaskswhichwethinkrequire“generalinligence”.(75)Onthewholesuchaconclusioncanbedrawnwithacertaindegreeofconfidence，butonlyifthechildcanbeassumedtohavehadthesameattitudetowardsthetestastheotherswithwhomheisbeingcompared，andonlyifhewasnotpunishedbylackofrelevantinformationwhichtheypossessed.(71)Themethodofscientificinvestigationisnothingbuttheexpressionofthenecessarymodeofworkingofthehumanmind;itissimplythemodebywhichallphenomenaarereasonedaboutandgivenpreciseandexactexnation.Thereisnomoredifference，butthereisjustthesamekindofdifference，betweenthementaloperationsofamanofscienceandthoseofanordinary ，asthereisbetweentheoperationsandmethodsofabakerorofabucherweighingouthisgoodsincommonscales，andtheoperationsofachemistinperformingadifficultandcomplexysisbymeansofhisbalanceandfinelygradedweights.(72)Itisnotthatthescalesintheonecase，andthebalanceintheother，differintheprinciplesoftheirconstructionormannerofworking;butthatthelatterismuchfinerapparatusandofcoursemuchmoreaccurateinitsmeasurementthantheformer.Youwillunderstandthisbetter，perhaps，ifIgiveyousomefamiliar(73)YouhaveallhearditrepeatedthatmenofscienceworkbymeansofdeductionthatoperationstheyinmanagetoextractfromNaturecertainnaturallaws，andthatoutofthese，bysomespecialskilloftheirown，theybuilduptheirtheories(74)Anditisimaginedbymanythattheoperationsofthecommonmindcanbebynomeanscomparedwithprocesses，andthattheyhavetobeacquiredbyasortofspecialtraining.Tohearalltheselargewords，youwouldthinkthatthemindofamanofsciencemustbeconstituteddifferentlyfromthatofhisfellowmen;butifyouwillnotbefrightenedbyterms，youwilldiscoverthatyouarequitewrong，andthatalltheseterribleapparatusarebeingusedbyyourselveseverydayandeveryhourofyourlives.Thereisawell-knowninoneofMoliere’sys，wheretheauthormakestheheroexpressunboundeddelightonbeingtoldthathehadbeentalkingprose（散文）duringthewholeofhislifeInthesameway，Itrustthatyouwilltakecomfort，andbedelightedwithyourselves，onthediscoverythatyouhavebeenactingontheprinciplesofinductiveanddeductivephilosophyduringthesameperiod.(75)Probablythereisnotoneherewhohasnotinthecourseofthedayhadoccasiontosetinmotionacomplextrainofreasoning，oftheverysamekind，thoughdifferingindegree，asthatwhichascientificmangoesthroughintracingthecausesofnaturalAccordingtothenewschoolofscientists,technologyisanoverlookedinexpandingthehorizonsofscientificknowledge.(71)Sciencemovesforward,theysay,notsomuchthroughtheinsightsofgreatmenofgeniusasbecauseofmoreordinarythingslikeimprovedtechniquesandtools.(72)“Inshort”,aleaderofthenewschoolcontends,“thescientificrevolution,aswecallit,waslargelytheimprovementadinventionanduseofaseriesofinstrumentsthatexpandedthereachofscienceininnumerabledirections.”(73)Overtheyears,toolsandtechnologythemselvesasasourceoffundamentalinnovationhavelargelybeenignoredbyhistoriansandphilosophersofscience.ThemodernschoolthathailstechnologyarguesthatsuchmastersasGalileo,Newton,Maxwell,Einstein,andinventorssuchasEdisonattachedgreatimportanceto,andderivedgreatbenefitfrom,craftinformationandtechnologicaldevicesofdifferentkindsthatwereusableinscientificexperiments.Thecenterpieceoftheargumentofatechnology-yes,genius-noadvocatewasanysisofGalileo'sroleatthestartofthescientificrevolution.ThewisdomofthedaywasderivedfromPtolemy,anastronomerofthesecondcentury,whoseelaboratesystemoftheskyputEarthatthecenterofllheavenlymotions.(74)Galileo'sgreatestglorywasthatin1609hewasthefirst toturnthenewlyinventedescopeontheheavenstoprovethatthenetsrevolvearoundthesunratherthanaroundtheEarth.Buttherealheroofthestory,accordingtothenewschoolofscientists,wasthelongevolutionintheimprovementofmachineryformakingFederalisnecessarilyinvolvedinthetechnologyvs.geniusdispute.(75)Whethertheernmentshouldincreasethefinancingofpurescienceattheexpenseoftechnologyorviceversaoftendependsontheissueofwhichisseenasthedriving.Thestandardizededucationalorpsychologicalteststhatarewidelyusedtoaidselecting,classifying,assigning,orpromotingstudents,employees,andmilitarynelhavebeenthetargetofrecentattacksinbooks,magazines,thedailyandevenincongress.(71)Thetargetiswrong,forinattackingthetests,criticsdivertattentionfromthefaultthatlieswithill-informedor petentusers.Theteststhemselvesaremerelytools,withcharacteristicsthatcanbemeasuredwithreasonableprecisionunderspecifiedconditions.Whethertheresultswillbevaluable,meaningless,orevenmisleadingdependspartlyuponthetoolitselfbutlargelyupontheuser.Allinformedpredictionsoffutureperformancearebaseduponsomeknowledgeofrelevantpastperformance:schoolgradesresearchproductive,salesrecords,orwhateverisappropriate.(72)Howwellthepredictionswillbevalidatedbylaterperformancedependsupontheamount,reliability,andappropriatenessoftheinformationusedandontheskillandwisdomwithwhichitisinterpreted.Anyonewhokeepscarefulscoreknowsthattheinformationavailableisalways andthatthepredictionsarealwayssubjecttoerror.Standardizedtestsshouldbeconsideredinthiscontext.Theyprovideaquick,objectivemethodofgettingsomekidsofinformationaboutwhata learned,theskillshehasdeveloped,orthekindsof heis.Theinformationsoobtainedhas,qualitatively,thesameadvantagesand ingsasotherkindsofinformation.(73)Whethertousetests,otherkindsofinformation,orbothinaparticularsituationdepends,therefore,upontheevidencefromexperienceconcerningcomparativevalidityanduponsuchfactorsascostandavailability.Ingeneral,thetestsworkmosteffectivelywhenthequalitiestobemeasuredcanbemostpreciselydefinedandleasteffectivelywhenwhatistobemeasuredorpredictedcannotbewelldefined.Properlyused,theyprovidearapidmeansofgettingcomparableinformationaboutmanypeople.Sometimestheyidentifystudentswhosehighpotentialhasnotbeenpreviouslyrecognized,buttherearemanythingstheydonotdo.(75)Forexample,theydonotcompensateforgrosssocialinequality,andthusdonotlhowableanunderprivilegedyoungstermighthavebeenhadhegrownupundermorefavorablecircumstances.Thedifferencesinrelativegrowthofvariousareasofscientificresearchhaveseveralcauses.(71)Someofthesecausesarecompleyreasonableresultsofsocialneeds.Othersarereasonableconsequencesofparticularadvancesinsciencebeingtosomeextentself-accelerating.Some,howeverarelessreasonableprocessesofdifferentgrowthinwhichpreconceptionsoftheformscientifictheoryoughttotake, sinauthority,acttoalterthegrowthpatternofdifferentareas.Thisisanewproblemprobablynotyetunavoidable;butitisafrighteningtrend.(72)ThistrendbeganduringtheSecondWorldWar,whenseveralernmentscametotheconclusionthatthespecificdemandsthataernmentwantstomakeofitsscientificestablishmentcannotgenerallybeforeseenindetail.Itcanbepredicted,however,thatfromtimetotimequestionswillarisewhichwillrequirespecificscientificanswers.Itisthereforegenerallyvaluabletotreatthescientificestablishmentasaresourceormachinetobekeptinfunctionalorder.(73)Thisseemsmostlyeffectivelydonebysupportingacertainamountofresearchnotrelatedtoimmediategoalsbutofpossibleconsequenceinthefuture.Thiskindofsupport,likeallernmentsupport,requiresdecisionsabouttheappropriaterecipientsoffunds.Decisionsbasedonutilityasopposedtolackofutilityarestraightforward.Butadecisionamongprojectsnoneofwhichhasimmediateutilityismoredifficult.Thegoalofthesupportingagenciesisthepraisableoneofsupporting“good”asopposedto“bad”science,butavaliddeterminationisdifficulttomake.Generally,theideaofgoodsciencetendsto econfusedwiththecapacityofthefieldinquestiontogenerateaneleganttheory.(74)However,theworldissomadethatelegantsystemsareinprincipleunabletodealwithsomeoftheworld'smorefascinatinganddelightfulaspects.(75)Newformsofthoughtaswellasnewsubjectsforthoughtmustariseinthefutureastheyhaveinthepast,givingrisetonewstandardsofelegance.Doanimalshaverights?Thisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeauseful,ground-clearingwaytostart.(71)Actually,itisn't,becauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanrights,whichissomethingtheworlddoesnotOnoneviewofrights,tobesure,itnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshave(72)Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontract,aspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Therefore,animalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurd;forexactlythesamereason,soistheideathattigershaverights.However,thisisonlyoneaccount,andbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople—forinstance,toinfants,thementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inaddition,itisunclearwhatacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosays“Idon'tlikethiscontract”?Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeople,arguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.(73)Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetratedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumans,orwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanother,morefundamental,question:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall?Manydenyit.(74)Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespect,extremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenasamistake—asentimentaldiscementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans.Thisview,whichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochopwood,mayseembravely“logical”Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectitThemostelementaryformofmoralreasoning—theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl—istoweighothers'interestsagainstone'sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenough,formost,toengageWhenthathappens,itisnotamistake:itismankind'sinstinctformoralreasoninginaction,aninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.Theywere,byfar,thelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudssome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.Butevenmoreimportant,itwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepast,forwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected;theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration'sCosmicBackgroundExplorersalite—Cobe—haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathas eknownastheBigBang(thetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy).TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBang,firstputforwardinthe1920s,tomaintainitsreignasthedominantexnationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheory,theuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopic,unimaginabledenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirections,emittingradiationasitwent,condensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyears,thegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxies,stars,ntsadeventually,evenhumans.Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructures,butastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswell,theseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn'thavelongtowait.(73)Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructures,andmayreporttheirfindingssoon.(74)Ifthesmallhotspotslookasexpected,thatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificidea,arefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatveryearlyon,theuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrilliontrilliontrilliontrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecond,propelledbyasortofantigravity.(75)Oddthoughitsounds,cosmiciflationisascientificallyusibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementaryparticlephysics,andmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.Whiletherearealmostasmanydefinitionsofhistoryastherearehistorians,modernpracticemostcloselyconformstoonethatseeshistoryastheattempttorecreateandexinthesignificanteventsofthepast.Caughtinthewebofitsowntimeandce,eachgenerationofhistoriansdeterminesanewwhatissignificantforitinthepast.Inthissearchtheevidencefoundisalways pleteandscattered;itisalsofrequentlypartialorpartisan.Theironyofthehistorian'scraftisthatitspractitionersalwaysknowthattheireffortsarebutcontributionstoanunendingInterestinhistoricalmethodshasarisenlessthroughexternalchallengetothevalidityofhistoryasaninlectualdisciplineandmorefrominternalquarrelsamonghistoriansthemselves.Whilehistoryoncerevereditsaffinitytolitureandphilosophy,theemergingsocialsciencesseemedtoaffordgreateropportunitiesforaskingnewquestionsandprovidingrewardingapproachestoanunderstandingofthepast.Socialsciencemethodologieshadtobeadaptedtoadisciplineernedbytheprimacyofhistoricalsourcesratherthantheimperativesofthecontemporaryworld.Duringthistransfer,traditionalhistoricalmethodswereaugmentedbyadditionalmethodologiesdesignedtointerpretthenewformsofevidenceinthehistoricalstudy.Methodolgyisatermthatremainsinherentlyambiguousinthehistoricalprofession.(74)Thereisnoagreementwhethermethodologyreferstotheconceptspeculiartohistoricalworkingeneralortotheresearchtechniquesappropriatetothevariousbranchesofhistoricalinquiry.Historians,especiallythosesoblindedbytheirresearchintereststhattheyhavebeenaccusedof“tunnelmethod,”frequentlyfallvictimtothe“technicistfallacy.”Alsocommoninthenaturalsciences,thetechnicistfallacymistakenlyidentifiesthedisciplineasawholewithcertainpartsofitstechnicalimplementation.(75)Itappliesequallytotraditionalhistorianswhoviewhistoryasonlytheexternalandinternalcriticismofsources,andtosocialsciencehistorianswhoequatetheiractivitywithspecifictechniques.ernmentsthroughouttheworldactontheassumptionthatthewelfareoftheirpeopledependslargelyontheeconomicstrengthandwealthofthecommunity.(71)Undermodernconditions,thisrequiresvaryingmeasuresofcentralizedcontrolandhencethehelpofspecializedscientistssuchaseconomistsandoperationalresearchexperts.(72)Furthermore,itisobviousthatthestrengthofacountry'seconomyisdirectlyboundupwiththeefficiencyofitsagricultureandindustry,andthatthisinturnrestsupontheeffortsofscientistsandtechnologistsofallkinds.Italsomeansthaternmentsareincreasinglycompelledtointerfereinthesesectorsinordertostepupproductionandensurethatitisutilizedtothebestadvantage.Forexample,theymayencourageresearchinvariousways,includingthesettingupoftheirownresearchcenters;theymayalterthestructureofeducation,orinterfereinordertoreducethewastageofnaturalresourcesortapresourceshithertounexploited;ortheymaycooperatedirectlyinthegrowingnumberofinternationalprojectsrelatedtoscience,economicsandindustry.Inanycase,allsuchinterventionsareheavilydependentonscientificadviceandalsoscientificandtechnologicalmanpowerofallOwingtotheremarkabledevelopmentinmasscommunications,peopleeverywherearefeelingnewwantsandarebeingexposedtonewcustomsandideas,whileernmentsareoftendtointroducestillfurtherinnovationsforthereasonsgivenabove.Atthesametime,thenormalrateofsocialchangethroughouttheworldistakingceatavastlyacceleratedspeedcomparedwiththepast.Forexample,(74)intheearlyindustrializedcountriesofEuropetheprocessofindustrialization—withallthefar-reachingchangesinsocialpatternsthatfollowed—wasspreadovernearlyacentury,whereasnowadaysadevelonationmayundergothesameprocessinadecadeorso.Allthishastheeffectofbuildingupunusualpressuresandtensionswithinthecommunityandconsequentlypresentsseriousproblemsfortheernmentsconcerned.(75)Additionalsocialstressesmayalsooccurbecauseofthepopulationexplosionorproblemsarisingfrommassmigrationmovements—themselvesmaderelativelyeasynowadaysbymodernmeansoftransport.Asaresultofallthesefactors,ernmentsare ingincreasinglydependentonbiologistsandsocialscientistsfornningtheappropriateprogramsandputtingthemintoeffect.Inlessthan30years'timetheStarTrekHolodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain'snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironments,allowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall.(71)Therewillbeevisionchatshowshostedbyrobots,andcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.(72)Childrenwillywithdollsequippedwith alitychips,computerswithin-built alitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantools,relaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-evision,anddigitalagewillhavearrived.AccordingtoBT'sfuturologist,IanPearson,theseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillennium(aperiodof1,000year) puterswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife.(73)Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsofkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakece.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicine,includinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040.Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.“Bylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystem,computerscouldpickupwhatwefeeland,hopefully,simulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironments,ratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekHolodeck,”hesays.(74)Butthat,Pearsonpointsout,isonlythestartofman-mchineintegration:“Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimayleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury.”Throughhisresearch,Pearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.However,therearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-than-lighttravelwillbeavailable,