IEA-2021-2021年可再生能源前景报告英文-2021.5-29正式版

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate

Outlookfor2021and2022

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RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Abstract

Outlookfor2021and2022

Abstract

Renewablesweretheonlyenergysourceforwhichdemandincreasedin2020despitethepandemic,whileconsumptionofallotherfuelsdeclined.Willrenewableenergysourceuptakethereforeexpandmorequicklyastheglobaleconomyrecoversfromthecrisis?Inexploringrecentmarketandpolicydevelopments,theRenewableEnergyMarketUpdateforecastsnewglobalrenewablepowercapacityadditionsfor2021and2022.Italsoprovidesupdatedbiofuelproductionforecastsfortheseyears,asthesectorsufferedsignificantlosseswithdecliningtransportdemandduringthepandemic.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Acknowledgements

Outlookfor2021and2022

Acknowledgements

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheRenewableEnergyDivisionintheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyHeymiBahar,SeniorAnalyst.

TheleadauthorsofthereportwereHeymiBahar(electricity)andJeremyMoorhouse(biofuels).Thereportbenefitedfromanalysisandinputfrommultiplecolleagues:YasminaAbdelilah,PiotrBojek,FrançoisBriens,ChenluCheng,TrevorCriswell,KazuhiroKurumiandGreciaRodríguezJiménez(alsoresponsiblefordatamanagement).

PaoloFrankl,HeadoftheRenewableEnergyDivision,providedstrategicguidanceandinputtothiswork.ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyKeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurityDirectorate.

ThanksgototheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirhelpinproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJadMouawad,HeadofCDO,andtoJonCuster,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,ChristopherGully,JethroMullen,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,JuliePuech,RobertStone,GregoryViscusiandThereseWalsh.

KristineDouaudcarriededitorialresponsibility.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Highlights

Outlookfor2021and2022

Highlights

In2020,annualrenewablecapacityadditionsincreased45%toalmost280GW–thehighestyear-onyearincreasesince1999.

Exceptionallyhighcapacityadditionsbecomethe“newnormal”in2021and2022,withrenewablesaccountingfor90%ofnewpowercapacityexpansionglobally.

Averageannualnetrenewablecapacityadditions,2011-2022

GW

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2014-16

2017-19

2020-22

2011-13

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

SolarPVdevelopmentwillcontinuetobreakrecords,withannualadditionsreaching162GWby2022–almost50%higherthanthepre-pandemiclevelof2019.

Globalwindcapacityadditionsincreasedmorethan90%in2020toreach114GW.Whilethepaceofannualmarketgrowthslowsin2021and2022,itisstill50%higherthanthe2017-2019average.

AnnualgrowthinthePeople’sRepublicofChina’s(hereafter,“China”)renewablesmarketwilldeceleratefollowingtheexceptionalexpansionthatresultedfromdevelopersrushingtocompleteprojectsbeforesubsidyphase-outs.However,therestoftheworldcompensatesforChina’sslowdownandmaintainsthepaceofrenewablesexpansion.

Europe’scapacitygrowthacceleratesthankstofurtherpolicysupportandaboomingcorporatePPAmarketasPVcostscontinuetodecline.

TheupdatedforecastfortheUnitedStatesismoreoptimisticbecauseoffederaltaxcreditextensions.NewUSemissionsreductiontargetsandtheinfrastructurebill,ifpassed,willboostrenewablesexpansionafter2022(beyondthetimeframeofthisforecastupdate).

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Highlights

Outlookfor2021and2022

AlthoughIndia’scapacityadditionsin2020declinedalmostover50%from2019,thecountryisexpectedtosetnewrecordsforrenewablesexpansionin2021and2022asdelayedprojectsfrompreviouscompetitiveauctionsarecommissioned.However,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19caseshascreatedshort-termforecastuncertaintyforthisyear.

Transportbiofuelproductionisexpectedtoreboundto2019volumesin2021,afterhavingfallen8%in2020.Productionisalsoforecasttoexpandanother7%in2022.

MainlydrivenbycleanfuelstandardsandpolicysupportintheUS,globalHydrotreatedVegetalOil(HVO)productioncapacityisexpectedtonearlydoubleinthenexttwoyears,significantlyexpandingthecapabilityofproducingbiofuelsfromwasteandresiduefeedstocks.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

Renewableelectricity

Aquicklookbackat2020

Policydeadlinesinkeymarketspropelledglobalrenewablecapacityadditionstoalmost280GWin2020,thehighestyear-on-yearincreaseinthelasttwodecades

Despitepandemic-inducedsupplychainchallengesandconstructiondelays,renewablecapacityadditionsin2020expandedbymorethan45%from2019,andbrokeanotherrecord.Anexceptional90%riseinglobalwindcapacityadditionsledtheexpansion.Alsounderpinningthisrecordgrowthwasthe23%expansionofnewsolarPVinstallationstoalmost135GWin2020.

PolicydeadlinesinChina,theUnitedStatesandVietNamspurredanunprecedentedboominrenewablecapacityadditionsin2020.Chinaalonewasresponsibleforover80%oftheincreaseinannualinstallationsfrom2019to2020,asonshorewindandsolarPVprojectscontractedunderChina’sformerFITscheme,andthoseawardedinpreviouscentralorprovincialcompetitiveauctions,hadtobeconnectedtothegridbytheendof2020.IntheUnitedStates,windpowerdevelopersrushedtocompletetheirprojectsbeforeexpirationoftheproductiontaxcredit(PTC),althoughitwasextendedforanotheryear,inDecember2020.InVietNam,phaseoutoftheFITforsolarPVprojectsledtoanunprecedentedrushincommercialandresidentialinstallations.

Renewablecapacityadditionchangesfrom2019to2020

GW

290

270

250

230

210

190

170

150

2019

India

BrazilUkraine

Others

China

UnitedVietNamOthers

2020

States

Total

Decrease

Increase

Total

Wind

SolarPV

Hydropower

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

Therushtocommissionprojectspriortopolicydeadlinesinthesecountriestookplaceinthelastquarter(Q4)of2020,especiallyinDecember.Infact,developersconnectedalmost150GWofnewrenewablecapacityinQ4of2020–morethandoublethenumberofgigawattscommissionedinQ4of2019andexceedingtheamountinstalledinthefirstthree-quartersof2020.Overall,IEAquarterlydeploymentestimatesindicatethattheslowdowninrenewablecapacityadditionswaslimitedtoQ12020only,mainlyinChina,whileconstructionactivitycontinuedstronglyintherestoftheworlddespitecontinuousmovementrestrictionsandsupplychaindelays.TheDecembersurgeinnewinstallationsalsoindicatesthatsolarandwindconstructionsupplychainswereabletofurnishrecordnumbersofprojectsinChina,theUnitedStates,VietNamandvariousEuropeancountries.

Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditions,2019-2020

GW

160

Restofworld

140

APAC

120

ASEAN

100

India

80

LatinAmerica

60

40

Europe

20

UnitedStates

China

0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2019

2020

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditionsmaynotadduptoabovementionedannualcapacityadditionsduetolimitedavailabilityofgranulardataformultiplecountries.APAC=Asia-Pacificregion.ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.

2021and2022forecastsummary

Renewablesdeploymentgearedupin2020,establishinga“newnormal”forcapacityadditionsin2021and2022

Theexceptionallevelofrenewableenergycapacityadditionsisexpectedtobemaintained,with270GWbecomingoperationalin2021and280GWin2022.Thisexpansionexceedstherecord-levelannualcapacityadditionsof2017-2019byover50%,suchthatrenewablesareexpectedtoaccountfor90%oftotalglobalpowercapacityincreasesinboth2021and2022.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

Netrenewablecapacityadditions,2011-2022

GW

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Althoughtheamountofannualwindcapacityadditionsisexpectedtodecreasein2021-2022aftertheexceptionaljumplastyearinChina,80GWofannualinstallationsarestillanticipatedglobally,i.e.almost35%morethanin2019.ContinuousgrowthinsolarPVadditions,spurredbylowerinvestmentcostsandongoingpolicysupport,partlycompensatesforlowerwindcapacityadditions.WeexpectannualsolarPVexpansiontoreach145GWin2021and162GWin2022,breakingrecordsandaccountingforalmostover55%ofallrenewableenergyexpansionthisyearandnext.Theaccelerationofhydropoweradditionsthrough2022isdrivenbythecommissioningofmega-scaleprojectsinChina.Meanwhile,expansioninotherrenewables,ledbybioenergy,remainsstableandrepresents3%oftotalnewrenewablecapacityadditions.

Netrenewablecapacityadditionsbytechnology,2020-2022

GW

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

2021

2022

2019

2020

2021

2022

PV

Wind

Hydro

Otherrenewables

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

China’spolicytransitionslowsexpansion,butothercountriescompensatewithfastergrowth

AlthoughChinahasaccountedfor40%ofglobalrenewablecapacitygrowthforseveralyearsalready,forthefirsttimein2020itwasresponsiblefor50%–arecordlevelresultingfromtheunprecedentedpeakinnewinstallationsinDecember.WeexpectChina’srenewablecapacityadditionstodeclinebyone-quarterin2021comparedwithlastyearbecauseofthegovernment’sdecisiontophaseoutsubsidiesforbothwindandsolarPVprojectsattheendof2020.Thereisalsouncertaintyaboutthestructureofthenewincentiveschemesthatwillbeannouncedtowardstheendof2021.

Nevertheless,China’santicipatedannualrenewablecapacityadditions(+45%in2021and+58%in2022)remainsignificantlyabovethe2017-2019averagedespitethisslowdown.Growthmayaccelerateagainafter2022only,stimulatedbynewpolicymeasuresalignedwiththecountry’sambitiouslong-termtargettoattainnet-zeroemissionsby2060.

Annualrenewablecapacityadditionsbycountryandregion,2017-2022

GW

180

60%

160

140

50%

120

40%

100

30%

80

60

20%

40

10%

20

0

0%

2017-19

2020

2021

2022

2017-19

2020

2021

2022

China

Restofworld

China

UnitedStates

Europe

India

ASEAN

LatinAmerica

MENA

Othercountries

China'sshare

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:The“2017-19”barrepresentsaverageannualcapacityadditionsforthatthree-yearperiod.ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.MENA=MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.

Europeacceleratesdeployment,becomingthesecond-largestrenewablepowermarketafterChina

InEurope,annualcapacityadditionsareforecasttoincrease11%to44GWin2021and49GWin2022.Withthisexpansion,thisyeartheregionwillbreaktherecordforannualadditionsforthefirsttimesince2011andbecomethesecond-largestmarketafterChina.GermanywillcontinuetodeliverthelargestrenewablecapacityadditionsinEurope,followedbyFrance,theNetherlands,Spain,the

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

UnitedKingdomandTurkey.ThisstronggrowthresultsfrommultiplecountriesextendingtheirpoliciestomeettheEU2030climatetarget,andbycorporatepowerpurchaseagreement(PPA)marketsboominginseveralcountries:

Germany–supportforsolarPV,windandbioenergywithhigherauctionvolumesthroughGermany’sRenewableEnergyAct2021(EEG)

TheNetherlands–allocationofthenewSDE++schemeinDecember2020

Turkey–extensionoffeed-intariff(FIT)schemeforallrenewables

Poland–newauctionawardedalmost1GWofPVinDecember2020

Spain–recordcorporatePPAagreementssignedin2020

Sweden–lowwindgenerationcostsstimulateaboominthecorporatePPAmarket;continuationofthePVrebateprogramme

TheUnitedKingdom–proposaltore-includeonshorewindandsolarPVinthe2021contractsfordifference(CfD)auction.

WhileUStaxcreditextensionsimprovetheoutlookforonshorewind,approvalofproposedpolicieswouldboostrenewablesdeploymentbeyond2022

InDecember2020,theUSgovernmentextendedproductionandinvestmenttaxcreditsbyonemoreyearforonshorewindandsolarPV.Thesechangeswillmostlyaffecttheonshorewindsectorin2021and2022,astheextensionsmakenewprojectsstartingconstructionin2021eligibleforaUSD18/MWhtaxcredit.Asaresult,wehaverevisedouronshorewindforecastupwardsby25%forthisyearand2022.ForsolarPV,theinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC)haslittleeffectonourshort-termforecast,astheDecemberextensioncoversonlyprojectsstartingconstructionin2022and2023.Still,decliningcosts,arecoveringdistributedPVsectorandgrowinginterestincorporatePPAsofferhopeformoreextensivesolarPVexpansion.

ThenewUSinfrastructureplanpresentedinMarch2021proposesa“direct-pay”provisionfortax-credit-eligiblerenewables,reducingtheneedforrelativelyexpensivetaxequity.Asimilarprovisionpassedin2009boostedwinddeploymentsignificantlyduring2010-2014.Furthermore,theplanoffersaten-yeartaxcreditextension,providingunprecedentedvisibilityforwindandPVdevelopers,spurringmuchfasterexpansion.However,thelegislativeprocessforthesepolicyproposalshasnotyetbeencompletedandtheexpectedimpactsarethereforenot

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

reflectedinourforecastfor2021and2022.Adetailedassessmentofthenewinfrastructureplan,andofotherrelevantlegislationtoachievetheannouncedtargetsofhalvingUSgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby2030andmakingUSelectricitycarbon-neutralby2035,willbeincludedinthefullautumneditionofRenewables2021.

Indiaisbackontrack

TheCovid-19impactonrenewableenergydeploymenthasaffectedIndiamorethananyothercountry:pandemic-inducedconstructiondelaysandgridconnectionchallengescausedIndia’scapacityadditionstodeclinebyalmost50%from2019to2020.Althoughnewrecordsforrenewablecapacityexpansionareexpectedtobesetin2021and2022asdelayedprojectsfrompreviouscompetitiveauctionsarecommissioned,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19caseshascreatedshort-termforecastuncertainty.Whilethefinancialhealthofdistributioncompanies(DISCOMs)remainstheprimarychallengetorenewableenergydeploymentinIndia,therecentlyproposedreformofUSD40billiontoimproveDISCOMoperationsandfinanceswouldofferamorepositiveoutlook.

VietNam’sPVboomends,slowingASEANgrowth,whileexpansionresumesinLatinAmericafollowingdelays

IntheASEANregion,rapidsolarPVexpansioninVietNamboostedtheregion’scapacityadditionstoarecord13GWin2020–60%higherthanin2019.However,thephasingoutofFITsinVietNamandrelativelysluggishrenewableenergygrowthinIndonesiaandThailandleadstoatwo-thirdsdeclineinASEANexpansionin2021and2022relativeto2020.InLatinAmerica,projectsdelayedfrom2020willbecomeoperationalinBrazil,MexicoandChile,whileincreasinglyattractivedistributedPVcostsdriverapiddevelopmentthankstoBrazil’sgenerousnet-meteringpolicy.AgrowingcorporatePPAmarketandbilateralcontractsoutsideofauctionschemesalsosupportdeploymentinLatinAmerica.

Growthdriversfor2021and2022

Forecastadditionsfor2021and2022havebeenrevisedupwardsbyover25%fromlastyear

DespiteChina’sphaseoutofsubsidiesandongoingpolicytransition,itsforecasthasbeenrevisedthemostfromlastyear.ThepipelineofsolarPVandwindplantprojectsacceptingprovincialelectricitypriceswithoutadditionalsubsidieshas

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

increasedsincelastyear,resultinginamoreoptimisticforecast.IntheUnitedStates,theextensionoftaxcreditsisexpectedtoleadtofastershort-termonshorewindgrowth,whileBrazil’sgenerousnetmeteringschemeresultsinadistributedPVmarketboom,supportingupwardrevisionstotheLatinAmericaforecast.IntheASEANregion,VietNam’spolicychangeswillreducecapacityadditionssignificantly,butgrowthisnotexpectedtocollapsefullythankstotheincreasingcost-competitivenessofsolarPV.InIndia,contractedPVauctionvolumesin2020exceededourpredictions,raisingforecastexpectations.

Capacityadditionsforecastrevisionsfor2021and2022

GW

250

50%

45%

200

40%

35%

150

30%

25%

100

20%

15%

50

10%

5%

0

0%

China

UnitedStates

Europe

India

LatinAmerica

ASEAN

Nov20forecast

May21forecast

%revision(rightaxis)

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Note:ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.

Record-breakingcompetitiveauctionsvolumesboostrenewablesdeploymentin2021and2022

Despitedecliningelectricitydemandandwholesalepowerpricedropsduetotheimpactsofpandemic,governmentsaroundtheworldauctionedarecordamountofrenewableenergycapacity,awardingalmost75GWofonshorewind,offshorewind,solarPVandbioenergylastyear–20%morethanin2019.

Auctionsheldin2020(and2019)remainthemainbasisofourforecastfor2021and2022,inadditiontoFITandnet-meteringpoliciesforsmallerapplications.IndiaandChinatogetherauctionedalmost55GWofwindandPVcapacityataveragecontractpricesofUSD60/MWhforwindandUSD47/MWhforPV.AuctionactivityslowedslightlyinEurope,butthiswasbecausesmallervolumesofoffshorewindwerecontracted,whereasinLatinAmericathedropwassignificantasBrazil,ChileandArgentinapostponedtheir2020auctionsdueto

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

lackofdemandandfinancingchallenges.Forthefirsttime,windandPVhybridauctionvolumeswereover6GW,mainlybecauseIndiaisofferingnewopportunitiesfordevelopers.

Renewableelectricitycompetitiveauctioncapacitybyawarddate,2011-2020

MW

80000

70000

NorthAmerica

Middleeast

60000

Brazil

50000

Europe

40000

China

30000

AsiaPacific(excl.India)

20000

10000

India

0

Restofworld

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

CorporateprocurementexpandsaswindandPVcostscontinuetodecline

Likecompetitiveauctions,corporatepowerprocurementalsohadanotherrecord-breakingyearin2020,witha25%year-on-yearincreasecreditedtodecliningcosts.WhiletheUnitedStatesremainstheworld’slargestcorporatePPAmarket,activityinEuropealmosttripledwithSpainsigninglargecontractswithmultiplePVdevelopersandSwedencontractingconsiderablewindprojects.IntheAsia-Pacificregion,newdevelopmentsareemerginginKorea,IndiaandsomeprovincesinChinawhenallowed.InLatinAmerica,BrazilcontinuestobethelargestcorporatePPAmarketwithanincreasingnumberofprojectsrelyingonlong-termcontractsoutsidethegovernment’sauctionscheme.ElsewhereinLatinAmerica,PPAactivityinChileandMexicodeclinedlastyearasaresultofcurtailedeconomicactivityandgrowingfinancingchallenges.

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RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate

Renewableelectricity

Outlookfor2021and2022

CorporatePPAvolumesbyregionandtechnology

Byregion

Bytechnology

2020

2020

2019

2019

2018

2018

2017

2017

2016

2016

2015

2015

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

30

GW

GW

Americas

Europe,MiddleEast&Africa

AsiaPacific

Solar

Wind

Other

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance(2021),CorporatePPAdatabase.

SolarPV

SolarPVcapacityadditionsareexpectedtoincrease8%toover145GWin2021.PVhasbecomethelowest-costoptionforelectricitygenerationinmanycountries,especiallythosewithgoodresourceavailabilityandaffordablefinancing.Asaresult,corporationsareincreasinglyoptingforbilateralcontractswithlarge-scalesolarPVplantstomeettheirenergydemand.Thankstofurthercostreductionsandcontinuouspolicysupportfrom120governmentsglobally,PVcapacityadditionsareforecasttoexpandfurtherto162GWin2022.

LargerprojectsdominatethesolarPVmarket

Theshareofutility-scaleapplicationsina