洛伊国际政策研究所-2021年气候调查（英文）-2021.5-14正式版

LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021NATASHAKASSAMHANNAHLESERLOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021KEYFINDINGSSeveralimportantresultsinthisnewpollshowoverallcon-cernaboutclimatechangehasincreasedin2021.SixintenAustralians(60%)say‘globalwarmingisaseriousandpress-ingproblem.Weshouldbegintakingstepsnow,evenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts,’a4-pointrisefrom2020.Inasig-nificant8-pointincreasesince2019,amajorityofAustralians(55%)nowsaythegovernment’smainpriorityforenergypolicyshouldbe‘reducingcarbonemissions’.ManyAustraliansappeartobemovingawayfromcoal.SixintenAustralians(63%)supportabanonnewcoalminesopeninginAustralia.Thesamenumber(63%)saytheysupportreduc-ingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountries.OnlythreeintenAustralians(30%)saytheysupportthefederalgovernmentprovidingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants.Australianssaymanylargecountriesaredoingtoolittletocombatclimatechange.EightintensayChina(82%)andIndia(81%)aredoing‘toolittle’,whileseveninten(71%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingtoolittle.Amajority(60%)alsosayAus-traliaisdoingtoolittle.AroundhalfsaytheUnitedKingdom(53%)andtheEuropeanUnion(49%)aredoingtoolittleintheireffortstocombatclimatechange.AlmostallAustralians(91%)saytheywouldsupportthefed-eralgovernment‘providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnology’—afindingwhichalignswithpreviousLowyInstitutepollsshowingstrongsupportforrenewableenergy.EightintenAustralians(78%)support‘settinganet-zeroemis-sionstargetfor2050’.Thesamenumber(77%)supportthegovernmentsubsidisingelectricvehiclepurchases.IntheleaduptotheCOP26UNClimateChangeConferenceinlate2021,sevenintenAustralians(70%)sayAustraliashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange.Three-quartersofAustralians(74%)say‘thebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecosts’.Thealternateviewisheldby24%,whosay‘thecostsoftakingfur-theractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefits’.ClimatePollꢀꢁꢀꢂbytheLowyInstitutereportstheresultsofanationallyrepresentativeonlineandtelephonesurveyconductedbytheSocialResearchCentrebetweenꢂꢀandꢀꢃAprilꢀꢁꢀꢂ,withasamplesizeofꢄꢀꢅꢃAustralianadults.Onasimplerandomsampleofꢄꢀꢅꢃresponses,themarginoferrorisapproximatelyꢂ.ꢅ%.The‘designeffect’forthissurveyisestimatedatꢂ.ꢃꢀ.SevenyearsafterAustralia’scarbonpricewasrepealed,asize-ablemajorityofAustralians(64%)supportintroducinganemis-sionstradingschemeoracarbontax.1CLIMATEPOLL2021pastdecade—saythatuntilwearesurethatglobalwarmingisreallyaproblem,weshouldnottakeanystepsthatwouldhaveeconomiccosts.LevelsofconcernaboutclimatechangeWhiletheCOVID-19pandemicappearedtotemperconcernsaboutclimatechangein2020,theissuehasrisentoprom-inenceagainin2021.ThemajorityofAustralians(60%)say‘globalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem…weshouldbegintakingstepsnow,evenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts’.Thisrepresentsareversalofthedipin2020duringtheearlydaysofthepandemic,butremainseightpointsbelowthehighwatermarkofconcernin2006.Asinrecentyears,thereisasignificantgapbetweenyoungerandolderAustralians’concernsaboutglobalwarming.Despiteaslightnarrowingbetweenthegenerations,themarginisstillnoteworthy,withthree-quarters(76%)ofAustraliansaged18–29sayingglobalwarmingisaseriousandpressingprob-lem,comparedwith50%ofthoseover60.Concernaboutglobalwarmingappearstobenarrowingslightlybetweentheurbanandruralpopulations,withjusta7-pointgapbetweenthe63%ofAustralianslivingincitiessay-ingthatglobalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem,andthe56%oftheregionalandremotepopulation.AthirdofAustralians(30%)saytheproblemofglobalwarmingshouldbeaddressed,butitseffectswillbegradual,sowecandealwiththeproblemgraduallybytakingstepsthatarelowincost.Only9%ofAustralians—oneofthelowestresultsoftheFIGURE1AttitudestoglobalwarmingNowaboutglobalwarming.Thereisacontroversyoverwhatthecountriesoftheworld,includingAustralia,shoulddoabouttheproblemofglobalwarming.I’mgoingtoreadyouthreestatements.Pleasetellmewhichstatementcomesclosesttoyourownpointofview.80%68616060595660%40%20%0%545350484645454441401340194016391338153812379361836113410328311030928102472006

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2021Globalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem.WeshouldbegintakingstepsnowevenifthisinvolvessignificantcostsTheproblemofglobalwarmingshouldbeaddressed,butitseffectswillbegradualsowecandealwiththeproblemgraduallybytakingstepsthatarelowincostUntilwearesurethatglobalwarmingisreallyaproblem,weshouldnottakeanystepsthatwouldhaveeconomiccostsThisquestionwasaskedintheannualLowyInstitutePollinMarch2021.Dashedlineindicateschangeinmode:seeMethodology,p.9.2LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021AustraliangovernmentpoliciesonclimatechangeFIGURE2CostsandbenefitsofclimatechangeactionWhenthinkingaboutthepossiblebenefitsandpossiblecostsoffurtheractiononclimatechange,whichofthefollowingtwostatementsisclosertoyourownview?Whenconsideringthepotentialcostsandbenefitsofclimatechangepolicies,mostAustraliansseethebenefitsasout-weighingthecosts.Three-quartersofAustralians(74%)say‘thebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecosts’.Thealternateviewisheldby24%,whosay‘thecostsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefits’.ThecostsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighDon’tknowthebenefits24Supportforreducingcarbonemissionsasapriorityforthefederalgovernmenthasincreasedinthepasttwoyears.Whenaskedwhatthegovernment’smainpriorityshouldbeintermsofenergypolicy,themajorityofAustralians(55%)say‘reduc-ingcarbonemissions’shouldbethemainpriority.Thishasincreasedeightpointssince2019andisnowaviewheldbythemajority.Athird(32%)say‘reducinghouseholdbills’shouldbethegovernment’spriority,adecreaseofsixpointssince2019.Only12%saythegovernmentshouldprioritise‘reducingtheriskofpowerblackouts’.74ThebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecostsLookingatarangeofpossiblefederalgovernmentpolicies,almostallAustralians(91%)saytheywouldsupportthefed-eralgovernment‘providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnology’.ThisalignswithLowyInsti-tutepollingin2018inwhich84%ofAustralianssaidthegov-ernmentshouldfocusonrenewablesratherthantraditionalFIGURE3EnergypolicyprioritiesNowthinkingaboutenergypolicy,whichoneofthefollowinggoalsdoyoupersonallythinkshouldbethemainpriorityfortheFederalGovernment?energysources.1EightintenAustralians(78%)support‘settinganet-zeroemis-sionstargetfor2050’,suggestingtheyseekafirmercommit-mentfromPrimeMinisterScottMorrison,whohassaidthatAustralia’s“goalistoreachnetzeroemissionsassoonaspossi-2019473815ble,andpreferablyby2050”.22021553212SevenintenAustralians(77%)supportprovidingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehicles.AsizeablemajorityofAustral-ians(64%)supportintroducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontax.Theseviewshaveshiftedsignificantlyinthepastfiveyears.In2016,inresponsetoadifferently-wordedques-tionintheLowyInstitutePoll,only40%saidtheywouldpreferthegovernmenttointroduceanemissionstradingschemeor0%50%100%ReducingcarbonemissionsReducinghouseholdbillspriceoncarbon.3Reducingtheriskofpowerblackouts3Australianviewsofcoalexportsandcoalminesalsoappeartohaveshiftedsignificantlyinrecentyears.SixintenAus-tralians(63%)supportabanonnewcoalminesopeninginAustralia.Thesameproportionofthepopulation(63%)saytheysupportreducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercoun-tries,inanapparentshiftfromfiveyearsagowhenamajoritybanningnewcoalmines,comparedto55%ofAustraliansagedover45.Similarly,71%ofrespondentsaged18–44supportimposingacarbontaxoremissionstradingscheme,comparedto57%ofAustraliansover45.Thefederalgovernment’spromotionofa‘gas-firedrecovery’(66%)saidAustraliashouldcontinuetoexportcoal.4In2021,forAustralia’seconomyappearstohavegeneralsupport,with5onlythreeintenAustralians(30%)saytheysupportthefederalgovernmentprovidingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants.58%infavourofAustraliaincreasingtheuseofgasforenergygeneration.Australiansaresplitoverthequestionofnuclearpower,whichOnanumberofthesepolicies,thereisasignificantgapbetweensupportfromyoungerandolderAustralians.Forexample,72%ofAustraliansaged18–44yearsoldsupporthasbeenprohibitedinAustraliasince1998.Almosthalfthe6population(47%)wouldsupportremovingtheexistingbanonnuclearpower,but51%areopposedtothatmeasure.FIGURE4PotentialfederalgovernmentpoliciesonclimateWouldyousupportoropposethefollowingfederalgovernmentpolicies?Providingsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnologies918Settinganet-zeroemissionstargetfor205078772022ProvidingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehiclesIntroducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontaxReducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountriesBanningnewcoalminesfromopeninginAustraliaIncreasingtheuseofgasforAustralia’senergygenerationRemovingtheexistingbanonnuclearpower646363333334335838334751Providingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants30670%25%50%75%100%SupportꢀpposeDon’tknow4LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021FIGURE5ClimatechangeeffortsbycountrySixintenAustralians(60%)sayAustraliaisdoingtoolittleinitseffortstocombatclimatechange,whileonethird(31%)sayAustraliaisdoingabouttherightamount.Hereisalistofcountriesandeconomies.Inyouropinion,isthatcountryoreconomydoingtoomuch,toolittle,orabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange?AustraliansappeartobethemostsatisfiedwiththeeffortsoftheUnitedKingdomandtheEuropeanUnion.However,aslimmajority(53%)stillsaytheUnitedKingdomisdoingtoolittle.Halfthepopulation(49%)saytheEuropeanUnionisdoingtoolittle,whilefourintenAustralians(40%)saytheEuropeanUnionisdoingabouttherightamount.China8211

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37MostAustralianswantAustraliatoincreaseitsambitionsonclimatechangepolicy.SevenintenAustralians(70%)sayAus-traliashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange.Lessthanathird(29%)sayAustraliashouldcontinuewithitscurrentpolicies.UnitedStatesAustralia71216031FIGURE6UnitedKingdomEuropeanUnionAustralia’sapproachtointernationalclimatechangenegotiationsIntheleaduptothe2021UnitedNationsclimatechangeconferenceinGlasgow,whichoneofthefollowingtwostatementsmostcloselyrepresentsyourownviewoftheapproachtheAustraliangovernmentshouldtakeininternationalclimatechangenegotiations?5338544940640%50%100%AustraliashouldcontinuewithitscurrentpoliciestoaddressclimatechangeDon’tknowToolittleAbouttherightamountToomuchDon’tknowInternationalclimatechangepolicies29InadvanceoftheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferencetobehostedbytheUnitedKingdominGlasgowinlate2021,themajorityofAustralianswouldliketoseelargecountriesdomoretocombatclimatechange.EightintenAustralianssaythatChina(82%)andIndia(81%)aredoing‘toolittle’intheireffortstocombatclimatechange.70Australiashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechangeWhenitcomestotheUnitedStates’efforts,alargemajority(71%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingtoolittletocombatclimatechange.OneinfiveAustralians(21%)saytheUnitedStatesisdoingabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange.5TABLESOFRESULTSPleasenotethattotalsmaynotaddto100%duetorounding.TABLE1AttitudestoglobalwarmingNowaboutglobalwarming.Thereisacontroversyoverwhatthecountriesoftheworld,includingAustralia,shoulddoabouttheproblemofglobalwarming.Pleaseindicatewhichofthefollowingthreestatementscomesclosesttoyourownpointofview.200620082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Globalwarmingisaseriousandpressingproblem.Weshouldbegintakingstepsnowevenifthisinvolvessignificantcosts68%60%48%46%41%36%40%45%50%53%54%59%61%56%60%Theproblemofglobalwarmingshouldbeaddressed,butitseffectswillbegradual,sowecandealwiththe24%32%39%40%40%45%44%38%38%36%37%31%28%34%30%problemgraduallybytakingstepsthatarelowincostUntilwearesurethatglobalwarmingisreallyaproblem,weshouldnottakeanystepsthatwouldhaveeconomiccosts7%8%13%13%19%18%16%15%12%11%9%10%10%10%9%Don’tknow/refused1%0%1%1%1%1%1%2%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%TABLE2CostsandbenefitsofclimatechangeactionWhenthinkingaboutthepossiblebenefitsandpossiblecostsoffurtheractiononclimatechange,whichofthefollowingtwostatementsisclosertoyourownview?202174%24%2%ThebenefitsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthecostsThecostsoftakingfurtheractiononclimatechangewilloutweighthebenefitsDon’tknow6LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021TABLE3EnergypolicyprioritiesNowthinkingaboutenergypolicy,whichoneofthefollowinggoalsdoyoupersonallythinkshouldbethemainpriorityforthefederalgovernment?20192021ReducingcarbonemissionsReducinghouseholdbillsReducingtheriskofpowerblackoutsDon’tknow47%55%38%15%1%32%12%1%TABLE4PotentialfederalgovernmentpoliciesWouldyousupportoropposethefollowingfederalgovernmentpolices?SupportOpposeDon’tknowProvidingsubsidiesforthedevelopment91%78%77%64%63%63%58%47%30%8%1%ofrenewableenergytechnologiesSettinganet-zeroemissionstargetfor205020%22%33%33%34%38%51%67%2%2%3%3%2%3%2%3%ProvidingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofelectricvehiclesIntroducinganemissionstradingschemeoracarbontaxReducingAustraliancoalexportstoothercountriesBanningnewcoalminesfromopeninginAustraliaIncreasingtheuseofgasforAustralia’senergygenerationRemovingtheexistingbanonnuclearpowerProvidingsubsidiesforbuildingnewcoal-firedpowerplants7TabLESOfrESULTSTABLE5InternationaleffortsonclimatechangeHereisalistofcountriesandeconomies.Inyouropinion,isthatcountryoreconomydoingtoomuch,toolittle,orabouttherightamounttocombatclimatechange?AbouttherightToolittle82%Toomuch3%Don’tknow4%amountChina11%India81%12%21%31%38%40%2%4%UnitedStatesAustralia71%5%3%60%53%7%2%UnitedKingdomEuropeanUnion5%4%49%6%4%TABLE6ApproachtoUNclimatenegotiationsIntheleaduptothe2021UnitedNationsClimateChangeConferenceinGlasgow,whichoneofthefollowingtwostatementsmostcloselyrepresentsyourownviewoftheapproachtheAustraliangovernmentshouldtakeininternationalclimatechangenegotiations?2021Australiashouldjoinothercountries,suchastheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,toincreaseitscommitmentstoaddressclimatechange70%AustraliashouldcontinuewithitscurrentpoliciestoaddressclimatechangeDon’tknow29%1%8LOWYINSTITUTECLIMATEPOLL2021METHODOLOGYNOTESClimatePoll2021bytheLowyInstitutereportstheresultsofanationallyrepresentativeonlineandtelephonesurveycon-ductedbytheSocialResearchCentre(SRC)between12and26April2021,withasamplesizeof3286Australianadults.Theorderofquestionsinthesurveywasdifferentfromtheorderpresentedinthisreport.1AlexOliver,2018LowyInstitutePoll,20June2018,/publications/2018-lowy-institute-poll.2ScottMorrison,“AddresstoNationalPressClub”,1February2021,.au/media/address-national-press-club-barton-act.ThesurveywasconductedbytheSRC,usingtheLifeinAus-tralia™panel—currentlytheonlyprobability-basedonlinepanelinAustralia.Membersofthepanelwererandomlyrecruitedviatheirlandlineormobile(ratherthanbeingself-se-lectedvolunteers)andagreedtoprovidetheircontactdetailstotakepartinsurveysonaregularbasis.SRCusesamixed-modeapproachforthepanel,includingonlinesurveys(95%ofrespondents)andcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviewing(5%ofrespondents)toprovidecoverageoftheofflinepopula-tion(householdswithoutinternetaccess).3AlexOliver,2016LowyInstitutePoll,20June2016,/publications/2016-lowy-institute-poll.4Ibid.5AngusTaylor,“AdvancingAustralia’sGas-firedRecovery”,7May2021,https://www.minister..au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/advancing-australias-gas-fired-recovery.Onasimplerandomsampleof3286responses,themarginoferrorisapproximately1.8%.Whereacomplexsampleisused,the‘designeffect’measurestheadditionalvarianceincom-parisonwithasimplerandomsample.Thedesigneffectforthissurveyisesti