国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP跟踪：尽管下行风险增加但第二季度GDP将持平（英）

NIESR

MonthlyGDPTracker

GDPSettoFlatlineinQ2,ThoughDownsideRisksHaveGrown

PaulaBejaranoCarbo

13thJuly2023

“Today’sdataindicatethatGDPremainedflatinthethreemonthstoMay,inlinewithourpreviousforecast,andconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendofloweconomicgrowthintheUK.MonthlyGDPfellby0.1percentinMayfollowinggrowthof0.2percentinApril,drivenbyafallinproductionoutputandnogrowthintheservicessector.WiththeBankRatenowat5percent,suppressingdemand,UKgrowthwillcontinuetobeanaemicatbestinthecomingmonths.”

PaulaBejaranoCarbo

AssociateEconomist,NIESR

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NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch

niesr.ac.uk

Mainpoints

•MonthlyGDPfellby0.1percentinMay2023followinggrowthof0.2percentinApril.Thismonthlyfigurewasdrivenbydrivenbyafallinproductionoutputof0.6percentfollowingafallof0.2percentinApril,andservicesoutputremainingflatfollowinggrowthof0.3percentinApril.

•GDPremainedflatinthethreemonthstoMayrelativetothepreviousthreemonths,inlinewithourmostrecentforecast.Asshowninfigure1below,theeconomyhaslargelyflatlinedfollowingtheinitialstagesofpost-pandemicrecovery;today’smonthlyGDPisestimatedtobeonly0.2percentaboveitspre-pandemic(February2020)level.

•WeforecastGDPtoremainflatinthesecondquarterof2023,remainingbroadlyconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendofloweconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom.Thatsaid,aspersistentlyhighinflationcontinuestosqueezehouseholdbudgets,alongsidetheeffectsofthehighcostofborrowing,demandwillbecurbedinthenearterm.Asaresult,service-sectoroutputinparticularmaycontinuetofalteranddragdownonGDPinthecomingmonth.TheriskstoGDPatthemomentseemtobeskeweddownside.

Figure1-UKGDP

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Economicsetting

Inour

previousGDPtracker

,publishedon12June,weobservedthatthatmonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinApril,drivenbygrowthinconsumer-facingservicessuchaswholesaleandretailtrade,andinformationandcommunication,whichwaspartiallyoffsetbyadeclineinmanufacturingoutput.Thedatathusremainedbroadlyconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendofloweconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom.

Today’sdatasuggestthatmonthlyGDPfellby0.1percentinMayfollowinggrowthof0.2percentinApril,drivenbyafallinproductionoutputandnogrowthintheservicessector.WiththeBankRatealreadyat5percentandpossiblyrisingfurtheroverthecomingmonths,suppressingdemand,itisunclearwhetherhouseholdspendingwillbeabletokeeptheservicessectorafloat;inanycase,wecanexpectGDPgrowthtobeanaemicatbest.

ThelatestONS

quarterlynationalaccounts

forthefirstquarterof2023highlightthatthehouseholdsavingsratiofellto8.7percentinthefirstquarteroftheyear,downfrom9.3percentinthefourthquarterof2022.However,therewasnochangeinrealhouseholdconsumptiononthequarter,rather,realhouseholds’disposableincomefellby0.8percentinQ1followinggrowthof1.3percentin2022Q4.Aspersistentlyhighinflationcontinuestosqueezehouseholdbudgets,alongsidetheeffectsofthehighcostofborrowing,service-sectoroutputmaycontinuetofalteranddragdownonGDPinthecomingmonth.

Earlierthisweek,wepublishedour

WageTracker

.TherecentONSestimatessuggestthattheannualgrowthrateofaverageweeklyearnings,includingbonuses,was6.9percentinthethreemonthstoMay,whilepaygrowthexcludingbonuseswas7.3percent-equallingthelargestgrowthrateinregularpayrecordedduringthepandemic.Ourforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesbothfiguresat7.2percent.Highwagegrowthoverthepastyearhasbeenenabledbythetightnessofthelabourmarket.However,thereareearlysignsthatthelabourmarketmaybegraduallyloosening;forinstance,theunemploymentrateincreasedslightlyto4.0percentandthenumberofvacanciesfellby85,000inthethreemonthstoMay,bringingtheunemploymenttovacancyratioto1.3.Itispossiblethatthislooseningwillgenerateagradualdecreaseinaveragewagegrowth,whichalongsidehighinflationandborrowingcostswillweighdownonhouseholdspending,andconsequently,GDP,inthecomingmonths.Ontheotherhand,ifthelabourmarketremainstight,theMPCmayfeelafurtherratehikeiswarranted.Inanycase,itseemslikelythatdemandwillbecurbedsignificantlyinthecomingmonths.Correspondingly,theriskstoGDPforecastsareskewedtothedownsideatthemoment.

TofurthercontextualiseourforecastofGDPremainingflatinthesecondquarterof2023,figure2comparesspendingandhiringindicatorstopre-pandemiclevels,whilefigure3recordsrecenttrendsinPMIs.Highfrequencyspendingandhiringindicatorshaveremainedbroadlystablethroughout2023,thoughourhousingindicatorhasseenmorevolatilitythaninpreviousyears,possiblyduetotheeffectsofthecurrentmonetarytighteningcycleonthehousingmarket.Itisnotablethatcreditanddebitcardspendinghasremainedclosetopre-pandemiclevelsthroughout2023,despitethecost-of-livingcrisisanduncertaineconomicoutlook.Thissupportsourviewthathighconsumerspendinghasbeenkeepingtheeconomyafloatinthefirst

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halfoftheyear.Figure3illustratescontinuedgrowthinservicesoutputinJune,thoughdecreasedoutputinconstructionandinmanufacturingmayweighdownonGDP.Takentogether,thesetwofiguressuggestthattheeconomicoutlookforthesecondquarterof2023isoneofflatliningoutput.

Figure2–Spendingandhiringindicators(weeklyindices)

Notes:(a)EnglandandWales.Debitandcreditcards(CHAPSbased):IndexFebruary2020=100,abackwardlookingseven-dayrollingaverage,non-seasonallyadjusted,nominalprices.Jobadverts:IndexFebruary2020=100,weeklyaverage.EPCcertificates:IndexFebruary2020=100,four–weekrollingaverage,adjustedfortimingofholidays.

Source:ONS,BoE,Adzuna,MHCLG,NIESR.

Figure3–RecenttrendsinPMIs

Sources:RefinitivDatastream,S&P

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NewsinlatestONSdata

ThemonthlyGDPdataforMaywereslightlyworsethanwewereexpectinginJune,fallingby0.1percentratherthanremainingflat.GDPdidnotgrowinthethreemonthstoMay,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.

Figure4–UKGDPgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)

Figure5showsaheatmapofthedatasurprisesacrosssectorsinthemonthlydata,relativetolastmonth’sGDPTracker,highlightingthesectorswherethesurprisesarelargerelativetothevolatilityoftheoutputdata.

Figure5–Surprisesinmonthlydata

BusinessservicesandfinanceGovernment

Distribution,HotelsandRestaurantsTransport,StorageandCommunicationManufacturing

Electricity

Extraction

WaterSupply,Sewerage,Waste

Management

Construction

Agriculture

03/2204/2205/2206/2207/2208/2209/2210/2211/2212/2201/2302/2303/2304/2305/23

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belowexpectationaboveexpectation

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Note:Cellsshowforecasterrorsasafractionofthestandarddeviationoferrorsforeachseries.

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FormoreinformationonourforecastestimatesrelativetoONSdata,pleaseseethe‘HealthWarning’sectionbelow.

Sectoraldetail

WeforecastGDPtoremainflatinthesecondquarterofthisyear.AsseeninFigure6below,weexpecttoseeafallinconstructionoutputoffsetbyanincreaseinagriculturaloutput.

Figure6-ContributionstoquarterlyGDPgrowth(percentagepoints)

Services(80percentofGDP)

Thesurveybalancespointtoafourthconsecutivemonthofincreasingbusinessactivityintheservicessector,asshownbythesurveyindicatorsinfigures3and7.TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKServicesPMIreportedanoptimisticbalanceof53.7inJune,fallingfrom55.2inMay.Surveyedbusinessesremainedpositiveoverallaboutbusinessprospectsinthecomingmonths,thoughtheindexofpositivesentimentwasitslowestsinceJanuary,withrespondentscitingworriesaboutsustainingdemandgivencostoflivingpressuresandtheimpactofhigherinterestrates.

BasedonrecentdevelopmentsweforecastUKservicesectoractivitytoremainflatinthesecondquarterof2023relativetothepreviousquarter.

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Figure7-ONSservicesectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)comparedwithswatheofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)

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Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-19Jan-20Oct-20Jul-21Apr-22Jan-23

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ONSservicesoutput

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Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.

Construction(6percentofGDP)

TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKConstructionPMIsurveyregisteredadecreaseto48.9inJunefrom51.6inMay,markingthefirstindicatorofdecreasingoutputinthissector(asnotedbyrecordingafigurebelowtheneutral50)infivemonths.ResidentialworkdecreasedatitssteepestpacesinceMay2020inresponsetoelevatedinterestrates.Infrastructureprojectswerethebest-performingcategoryinthissector.

Ourforecastforthesecondquarterof2023seesacontractionof0.3percentinthissector.

Production(14percentofGDP)

Weforecastthatproductionsectoroutputwillremainflatinthesecondquarterof2023,thoughoutputinthissectorisvolatileanddifficulttopredictwithaccuracyonaquarterlybasis.Theproductionsectorcomprisesmanufacturing;miningandquarrying(whichincludesoilandgasextraction);electricity,gas,steamandairconditioning;andwatersupplyandsewerage.Thelargestofthesesectorsaremanufacturing,accountingfor10percentofGDP,andminingandquarrying,accountingfor1percentofGDP.

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Manufacturing

TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKmanufacturingPMIforJanuaryposted46.5inJunefrom47.1inMay–representingtheeleventhconsecutivemonththissectorhascontracted.Thissustaineddeclinehasbeendrivenbyacontinuingcombinationofweakeneddomesticandexportdemand,erodingconsumerconfidence,Brexit-relatedtradedifficulties,andapreferenceforreducedinventoryholdings(asacashflow-improvingmeasure).Thatsaid,53percentofrespondentsforecastgrowthoverthecoming12months.

Ourforecastforthesecondquarterof2023seesoutputgrowingby0.2percentinthissector.

TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKCompositePMI–whichcombinescomparableservicesandmanufacturingindices–fellto52.8inJunefrom54.0inMay.Itispositivethatoverall,privatesectoroutputseemstohaveexperiencedasustainedreboundoverthestartof2023.

Miningandquarrying

Miningandquarrying(extraction)isasmallbuterraticcomponentofindustrialproductionthatcanhaveaninfluenceonoverallGDPgrowth.Weforecastacontractionof3.3percentinthissectorinthesecondquarterof2023.

Figure8-ONSmanufacturingsectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)comparedwithswatheofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)

Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.

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Table1-SummaryTableofGDPgrowth(2019=100)

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Healthwarning

TheNIESRGDPTrackerprovidesarollingmonthlyforecastforGDPgrowth.Ourfirstestimateofgrowthforanyparticularquarterstartsinthefirstmonthofthatquarterandisthenupdatedeachmonthuntilthefirstofficialreleaseinthesecondmonthofthefollowingquarter.So,forexample,ourfirstestimateofgrowthinthefirstquarterof2020waspublishedinJanuaryandthenupdatedfourtimes(inFebruary,March,April,andMay)beforetheONSpublisheditsfirstestimateforthefirstquarterof2020inMay2020.Inotherwords,wepublishfourestimatesofGDPforanyparticularquarterbeforetheofficialreleaseandchangethemasnewevidencebecomesavailable.Figure9showshowourshort-termforecastsforrecentquartershavechangedasnewinformationhasbecomeavailable.

Figure9-EvolutionoftheNIESRquarterlyGDPforecast(3monthsonprevious3months,per

cent)

NIESR’sshort-termpredictionsofmonthlyGDPgrowtharebasedonbottom-upanalysisofrecenttrendsinthemonthlysub-componentsofGDP.Thesepredictionsareconstructedbyaggregatingstatisticalmodelforecastsoftensub-componentsofGDP.Thestatisticalmodelsthathavebeendevelopedmakeuseofpasttrendsinthedataaswellassurveyevidencetobuildshort-termpredictionsofthesub-componentsofmonthlyGDP.Theseprovideastatistically-basedguidetocurrenttrendsbasedonthelatestavailabledata.EachmonththesepredictionsareupdatedasnewONSdataandnewsurveysbecomeavailable.Table2showsthegrowthineachsectorforthethreemonthstoApril,comparedwiththepreviousthreemonths,againsttheforecastforeachinourJuneGDPTracker.

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Table2-3-month-on-3-monthgrowthtoApril(percent)

GDP

IndexofServices

Indexof

Production

Manufacturing

Miningand

Quarrying

Indexof

Construction

Forecast

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-0.1

0.3

0.6

-2.0

0.9

Outturn

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.8

-4.1

0.2

ItisimportanttostressthatthetimelierNIESRguidetoquarterlyGDPgrowthislessreliablethanthesubsequentONSdatareleasesasitsdatacontentislower,particularlyforestimatesofthecurrentquarterwhichinsomemonthswillbebasedonlyonforecastsratherthanharddata.Tomitigatethisissue,NIESRprovidesaguidetoaverageerrorsbasedonpastperformance.NIESRalsoprovidesclearguidanceonhowthelatestnewshascauseditsestimatesofGDPgrowthinthecurrentandprecedingquartertochangeandtherebyquantifyhowtheshort-termoutlookisbeingaffectedbyrecentdatareleases(see,e.g.,Figure5).

Asthebottom-upmethodologyforproducingestimatesofGDPgrowthforthecurrentandprecedingquartersisstillrelativelynew,wedonotyethavealongtrackrecordofestimatesproducedbythisapproach.Tocheckhowourmethodologywouldworkinrealtimewewentbacktolate2016toproducejudgement-freeforecastsofGDPgrowthinfuturemonthsbasedonthemonthlydataseriesavailableforthecomponentsinNovember2016(thiswastheearliestvintagethenavailableontheONSwebsite)andineachsubsequentthreemonths.TheseareshowninTable3,whichhasbeenupdatedtoincludeestimatessincewestartedproducingtheGDPTrackerinJuly2018.Wecalculatetheforecastquarter-on-quartergrowthratesforthecurrentquarterandcomparethesetotheONSfirstestimatesofquarterlygrowth.Theaverageabsoluteerrorforthequartersconsideredwas0.22percentagepoints.Thelargesterrorwasforthesecondquarterof2020whenourGDPtrackerinMaypointedtogrowthof-22.8percent,2.4percentagepointslowerthantheONSfirstest