中国经济半年度展望

2023-07-312023-07-31中信期货研究|中信期货研究|CITICFuturesResearch重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Importantnote:Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.Ourcompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport;Therearerisksinthemarket,andinvestmentneedstobecautious.konChinaEconomyinHSTRACT回顾：一季度中国经济恢复好于预期，但二季度经济增长动能明显减弱。一季度经济表现较好主要因为积压需求的释放。二季度积压需求释放大幅减少，房地产预期有所走弱，而居民消费信心恢复仍然缓慢；因此，经济增长动能明显减弱。Review:Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,andthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2.Thereleaseofbacklogdemandafterreopeningcontributedtotheinitialrecovery.Theslowdowninthesecondquarterwasduetothedecreasedbacklogdemand,weakenedrealestateexpectation,andslowrecoveryofconsumerconfidence.展望：下半年政策支持力度的加大或将推动中国经济温和复苏。根据7月政治局会议精神，中国政府将积极扩大国内需求。在政策支持下，下半年投资与消费有望改善。外需可能小幅走弱，但低基数效应或将推动出口同比增速回升。预计下半年GDP增长加快，全年GDP目标可以实现。Outlook:SupportivepoliciesmaycontributetothemoderaterecoveryofChinaeconomyin2023H2.AccordingtothePoliticalBureaumeetinginJuly,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2.Withpolicysupport,Chinainvestmentandconsumptionareexpectedtoimprove.Overseasdemandmayweakenslightly,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportsmayreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.China'sGDPgrowthmayacceleratein2023H2andtheannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5.0%shouldbeachievable.资咨询业务资格：vestmentconsultingbusinessationSECLicenseNo.669刘道钰格号：F3061482咨询号：Z0016422LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.：F3061482ConsultingNo.：Z0016422桂晨曦号：F3023159咨询号：Z0013632GuiChenxiQualificationNo.：F3023159ConsultingNo.：Z0013632resResearch2/20 3/20回顾Review一季度中国经济恢复好于预期，但二季度经济增长动能明显减弱。一季度经济表现较好主要因为积压需求的释放。二季度经济增长动能减弱有三个原因。Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,butthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2,excludingthebaseeffect.Thebetter-than-expectedeconomicperformancein2023Q1wasmainlyduetothereleaseofbacklogdemand.Therearethreereasonsfortheslowdownofeconomicgrowthin2023Q2.首先，积压需求释放大幅减少。消费与商品房销售的积压需求在一季度基本释放完毕，出口的积压需求到4月也基本释放完毕。其次，房地产市场预期转弱抑制了商品房销售与房地产投资。最后，居民消费信心恢复仍然缓慢。二季度社会费消费品零售总额两年平均增速仅2.8%，远低于疫情前8%的水平。Firstly,thereleaseofbacklogdemandhassignificantlydecreased.Thebacklogdemandforconsumptionandcommercialhousingsaleswasmostlyreleasedin2023Q1,andthebacklogofexportdemandwasreleasedfullybyApril.Secondly,weakenedrealestateexpectationsuppressedthesalesofcommercialbuildingsandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopment.Finally,therecoveryofconsumerconfidenceremainsslow.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswasonly2.8%in2023Q2,farlowerthanthegrowthrateof8%beforeCOVIDpandemic.4/201.政策Policy会议，分析当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。我们认为，下半年政策端将积极扩大国内需求，努力实现5%左右的GDP增长目标。OnJuly24,thePoliticalBureauoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)CentralCommitteeheldameetingtoanalyzethecurrenteconomicsituationandplanforeconomicworkforthesecondhalfof2023.Basedonourunderstanding,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2andtoachieveanannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5%.政治局会议指出，当前经济运行面临新的困难挑战。主要是国内需求不足，一些企业经营困难，重点领域风险隐患较多，外部环境复杂严峻。中国经济具有巨大的发展韧性和潜力，长期向好的基本面没有改变。ThepolitburomeetingpointedoutthatChina'seconomyisfacingnewdifficultiesandchallenges,whichmainlyarisefrominsufficientdomesticdemand,difficultiesintheoperationofsomeenterprises,risksandhiddendangersinkeyareas,aswellasagrimandcomplexexternalenvironment.Chinaeconomyhasenormousdevelopmentresilienceandpotential,andpositivefundamentalshavenotchangedinthelongterm.会议要求，精准有力实施宏观调控，加强逆周期调节和政策储备。这意味着，如果国内经济不能稳住，还会有进一步的稳经济措施出台。Themeetingcalledforcarryingoutmacroeconomicregulationwithprecisionandforce,strengtheningcounter-cyclicalmeasures,andmakingmorepolicyoptionsavailable,indicatingthatmorepoliciesaimtostabilizetheeconomywillbeintroducedifthedomesticeconomycannotimprove.5/20会议还要求“贯彻新发展理念”。这意味着经济发展不会重走老路，不会过度举债搞建设，不会过度刺激消费。政策目标是“推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的Themeetingalsocalledfortheimplementationofthenewdevelopmentconcept,whichmeansthateconomicdevelopmentwillnotbethesamewayasitwas,willnotexcessivelyborrowforconstruction,andwillnotexcessivelystimulateconsumption.Thepolicygoalistopromotetheeffectiveimprovementofqualityandreasonablegrowthofquantityintheeconomy,withGDPincreasingbyabout5.0%YoY.为了解决国内需求不足的困难，会议要求积极扩大国内需求。消费方面，政治局会议提及“要提振汽车、电子产品、家居等大宗消费”，最近这些政策均已落地。投资方面，政治局会议要求“更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快地方政府专项债券发行和使用”，并表示“制定出台促进民间投资的政策措施”。其中，促进民间投资的措施已经发布。Themeetingnecessitatedeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemand.Intermsofconsumption,themeetingmentionedthat“consumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemsshouldbeboosted”.Relevantpolicieshavebeenreleasedrecently.Intermsofinvestment,themeetingdemandedthatgovernmentinvestmentshouldbetterplaytheroleofdrivingoverallinvestment,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds.Themeetingalsodemandedthatmorepoliciesshouldbeformulatedandrolledouttospurprivateinvestment,andthesepoliceshavebeenreleased.resResearch6/20房地产方面，政治局会议要求“适时调整优化房地产政策”，这意味着大中城市的限购、限贷等偏紧的政策将适当放松。不过，政策的放开可能也不会一步到位，从而防范房地产炒作。政策的目标是促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。Intermsofrealestate,themeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitiesinChinawillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.However,therelaxationofpoliciesmaynotbefullyimplementedallatoncetopreventrealestatespeculation.Thepolicyobjectiveistoadvancethestableandsounddevelopmentoftherealestatemarket.2.投资Investment二季度固定资产投资增长偏慢，但6月增速已企稳回升。二季度固定资产投资同比增长3.0%，增速比一季度低2.1个百分点。不过，6月固定资产投资增速已经企稳回升，其同比增速、两年平均增速较5月均提高1.3个百分点。ChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewatarelativelyslowpaceinQ2,butthegrowthratereboundedinJune.Theinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.0%YoYinQ2,2.1%lowerthanQ1.However,itreboundedinJune,withitsYoYandtwo-yearaveragegrowthratesbothincreasingby+1.3%comparedwithMay.resResearch7/20ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY%twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY%twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定资产投资房地产基建制造业FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing固定资产投资房地产基建制造业FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-202520151050-5-10-15-20Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF产投资Realestateinvestment中国房地产行业调整已经较为充分，进一步下行空间并不大。2021年下半年以来房地产回调时间长达2年；从时间上看，回调是较为充分的。2022年下半年疫情对居民购房意愿的抑制相当显著，投资与投机性购房需求应该已经充分地被挤出。过去1年商品房销售面积与房屋新开工面积相对于2019年同期的增速大体呈现筑底特征。因此，房地产进一步下行空间不大。TheadjustmentofChina'srealestateindustryhasbeenrelativelysufficient,andfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearretreat,whichwasrelativelysufficientfromtheperspectiveoftime.Theresidents'willingnesstopurchasehouseswassignificantlysuppressedbytheepidemicin2022H2,whichmeansthattheinvestmentandspeculativedemandforcommercialhousingshouldhavebeenfullysqueezedout.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeature,comparedwiththesameperiodof2019.Thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.resResearch8/2030 20 10 30 20 10 0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70,2021年为两年平均增速)RealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoYtwoyearaveragegrowthratein2021)thcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,%FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoY% FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoY% InvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY%200-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019) Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019) Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF近期居民购房观望情绪浓厚以及二手房供应增加使得新房销售面临一些下行的压力。7月份以来30大中城市商品房销售面积进一步回落。这有两个原因。一是房价下跌导致居民购房观望情绪浓厚。二是房价上涨预期减弱使得二手房供应增加，二手房分流了一些新房需求。这两个因素使得短期新房销售面临一些下行压力。Thestrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentsinpurchasinghouses,andtheincreaseinsupplyofsecond-handhousinghaveputsomedownwardpressureonnewhousingsales.SinceJuly,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined.Therearetworeasonsforthis.Firstly,thedeclineinhousingpriceshasledtoastrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentswhenpurchasinghouses.Secondly,weakenedexpectationsofhousingpriceshasledtoanincreaseinthesupplyofsecond-handhousing,whichhasdivertedsomedemandfornewhousing.Thesefactorshaveputsomedownwardpressureontheshort-termnewhousingsales.resResearch9/20Floorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcities-daymeanaverage,10,000squaremeters)70MajorCitiesSecond-HandHousingPricesMoM%100908070605040302002023202220202019JFMAMJJASOND70城一线二线三线70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier31.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0Jan-21Jan-22JanJan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-19资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF政策支持力度加大有望对冲房地产下行压力，下半年房地产投资处于筑底阶段。7月10日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局通知延长金融支持房地产市场平稳健康发展有关政策期限。这有利于维护房地产开发商资金流稳定。7月24日，中央政治局会议明确表示“适时调整优化房地产政策”。意味着大中城市限购、限贷等偏紧政策将适当放松。在政策支持下，下半年商品房销售有望企稳，房地产投资总体筑底。Thestrengtheningpolicysupportisexpectedtorelievedownwardpressureonrealestate,andtherealestateinvestmentmaybottomoutin2023H2.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationannouncedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,whichhelpsmaintainthestabilityofrealestatedevelopers'cashflow.OnJuly24th,thePolitburomeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitieswillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.resResearch10/20201520151050 -5-10-15-20-25-30202320222021JFMAMJJASOND投资Infrastructureinvestment由于稳增长力度加大，预计下半年基建投资增长将有所加快。上半年基建治局会议要求，下半年加快地方政府专项债券发行和使用，更好地发挥政府投资带动作用。预计下半年基建投资增长会有所加快。Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2duetothestrengtheningpolicysupport.In2023H1,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby+10.7%YoY,whichwasatarelativelyhighlevel.Thegrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentmainlydependsontheeffortstostabilizetheeconomy.AccordingtothespiritofthePolitburomeeting,moreeffortswillbemadetostabilizetheeconomyin2023H2,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebondsandgovernmentinvestmentplayagreaterrole.Therefore,thegrowthofInfrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtospeedup.n)CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoY% InfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY%Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23450004000035000300002500020000150001000050000SourcesWindCITICSF中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF11/2050 40 30 20 10 50 40 30 20 10 0-10-20-30-40-50预计下半年制造业投资增长小幅加快。上半年制造业投资累计同比增长6.0%，增速居中。上半年制造业利润总额同比下降20%，不利于制造业投资增长。不过，政策积极支持制造业发展，6月末制造业中长期贷款余额同比增速高达40.3%，这有利于制造业投资增长。在政策的支持下，下半年制造业投资增长有望小幅加快。Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrymayslightlyacceleratein2023H2.Theaccumulatedinvestmentinmanufacturingindustryincreasedby+6.0%YoYin2023H1,whichwasatamediumlevel.In2023H1,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrydownedby-20%YoY,whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,theYoYgrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Withthesupportofpolicies,thegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.ingindustryYoYn图表10：制造业中长期贷款与利润增速(%)Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY%CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY ManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY30200-10-20-30-40Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoY% CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY%Dec-21Dec-22Dec-21Dec-22Dec-2012/20投资展望：房地产投资总体处于筑底阶段，基建与制造业投资增长可能加快，下半年固定资产投资增长有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,therealestateinvestmentmaybebottomout,andthegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.3.消费Consumption二季度消费增速已经触底，其中6月消费增速企稳回升。今年4、5、6月份，社费消费品零售总额分别两年平均增长2.6%、2.5%、3.1%，四年平均增长3.5%、3.5%、4.0%，消费增速已经触底并开始企稳回升。TheconsumptiongrowthinQ2hasalreadyhitthebottom,withthegrowthratereboundedmoderatelyinJune.FromApriltoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+2.6%,+2.5%,and+3.1%,andthefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere+3.5%,+3.5%,and+4.0%,respectively.Theconsumptiongrowthratehasstartedtorebound.图表11：社会消费品零售总额的增速(%，剔除基数效应)TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY%ludingbaseeffectCommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY%cludingbaseeffectRetailSalesYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.020.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0ratein2021and2023,respectively)Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23CommodityRetailYoY%IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY%(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)50-5-10-15-20-25-30Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSFresResearch13/20中国消费的修复过程尚未完成，下半年消费尤其是服务消费有望进一步恢复。相对于疫情前(2019年)，二季度社会消费品零售总额增长15.6%，远低于居民收入29.4%的增速，反映消费仍存在较大的修复空间。其中，6月份商品零售与餐饮收入较2019年同期分别增长17.3%、13.6%，餐饮收入增速仍明显低于商品零售，反映服务消费的修复明显滞后。预计下半年中国消费尤其是服务消费进一步恢复。Therecoveryofconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted,andtheconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,isexpectedtofurtherrecoverin2023H2.Incomparisonwithpre-COVIDera(2019),theretailsalesofconsumergoodsraisedby+15%,13%lowerthanthegrowthrateofhouseholds’income,signifyingsomespaceforconsumptionrecovery.InJune,thegrowthrateoftheincomeofcateringindustrywas+13.6%comparedwithJune2019,whichwas3.7%lowerthanthatoftheretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionstilllagsbehind.ItisexpectedthatChinaconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,willfurtherrecoverin2023H2.下半年居民收入有望加快增长，这也将推动消费加快增长。居民收入主要取决于就业。二季度城镇调查失业率为5.2%，比一季度低0.3个百分点，比去年四季度低0.4个百分点。二季度全国居民人均可支配收入四年平均增长6.7%，比一季度高0.3个百分点，比去年四季度的三年平均增速高0.9个百分点。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2,whichwillalsodriveafasterconsumptiongrowth.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinQ2was5.2%,0.3%lowerthanQ1and0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.14/20总体来看，在国内防疫政策优化之后，居民整体失业率趋于降低，而居民收入增长趋于加快。下半年国内服务消费继续温和修复，服务业就业将进一步增加，失业率可能小幅回落，居民收入增长或将小幅加快。Overall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Thus,theconsumptionmaygrowatafasterpace.此外，下半年政策支持力度的加大也有助于消费加快增长。政治局会议要求下半年积极扩大消费。7月中旬，提振汽车、电子产品、家居等大宗消费的政策措施已经先后发布。未来存量房贷利率也可能适当下调，这将减少居民利息支出，有助于消费加快增长。Inaddition,theenhancingpolicysupportwillalsohelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowthin2023H2.Thepolitburomeetingdemandedeffortstoactivelyexpandconsumptiondemand.Inmid-July,thepoliciestoboosttheconsumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemshavebeenreleased.Inthefuture,theinterestratesonexistinghousingloansmayalsobeappropriatelylowered,whichwillreduceresidents'interestexpensesandhelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowth.resResearch15/201284 0 -41284 0 -4 -8-12-16-20106.05.85.65.45.25.04.84.64.44.24.086420Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22图表13：居民收入与消费增速(%，剔除基数效应)egrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption图表14：居民收入增速与城镇调查失业率(%)UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY% CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY%(two-year,three-year,four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022and2023) QuarterlyUnemploymentRate%(rightaxis)资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF4.出口Export下半年中国外需可能小幅走弱，但低基数效应将推动出口同比增速回升。6月世界银行上调2023年全球GDP增速预测0.4个百分点至2.1%；发达经济体GDP预计同比增长0.7%，有望避免经济衰退。总体来看，下半年全球经济仍有韧性。China'sexternaldemandmayweakenslightlyin2023H2,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportswillreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.TheWorldBankraised2023globalGDPgrowthprojectionby0.4%to+2.1%inJune,advancedeconomiesGDPisexpectedtogrowby+0.7%andmayavoideconomicrecession.Overall,globaleconomyisexpectedtostayresilient.下半年，许多经济体仍需通过高利率抑制商品需求，进而控制通胀。特别是，美联储与欧央行可能继续加息25-50BP。在这样背景下，海外商品需求可能回落。由于加息接近尾声，高利率对商品需求的抑制大体已经体现，中国外需的下滑幅度不会很大。考虑到低基数效应，中国出口同比增速或将回升。resResearch16/20Inthesecondhalf,manyoverseaseconomiesstillneedhighinterestratetocurbinflationandrestrictdemand.Inparticular,theUSFedandECBmightraiseinterestrateby25to50bp.Inthisbackground,overseasdemandmayweaken.However,astheinterestratehikesgraduallystop,theimpactofhighinterestratesoncommoditydemandhasgenerallybeenreflected,andthedeclineinChina’sexternaldemandwillnotbesignificant.Becauseofthelowbaseeffect,theYoYgrowthrateofChinaexportsmayreboundin2023H2.IGlobalManufacturePMIandChinaExportGrowthGlobalGDPActualandProjectedGrowth,%J.P.MorganglobalmanufacturingPMI(leftaxis) Export(USD)YoY%(two-yearaveragein2021)5856545250484644Feb-16Mar-17Apr-18May-19Jun-20Jul-21Aug-222460-6-12-18GDP同比:全球发达经济体发展中国家GlobalGDPAEGDPYoY%EMGDPYoY%8 YoY%86420-2-4-6202020212022e2023f2024202020212022e2023f2024f资料来源：Wind中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：世界银行中信期货研究所Sources:WorldITICSF5.GDPGrossDomesticProduct高增速主要因为低基数效应；两年平均增速仅3.3%，明显低于一季度4.6%的增速。Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofChinaGDPin2023Q2was3.3%,atarelativelylowlevel.TheYoYgrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,thehighlevelwasmainlyduetothelowbaseeffect;however,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewasonly3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.resResearch17/20GDP:当季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY%20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22GDP第二产业第三产业SecondaryIndustryTertiaryIndustry10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0Dec-21Dec-22DecDec-21Dec-22Dec-19Dec-18资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF根据估算，6月GDP两年平均增速回升到4.0%左右。二季度GDP增长显著放缓主要因为4-5月经济显著走弱。6月份以来稳增长政策开始适当加力。6月份工业增加值与服务业生产指数两年平均增速分别回升至4.1%、4.0%，这意味着6月GDP两年平均增速大体达到4.0%的水平，显著高于二季度3.3%的增速。Byestimation,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPinJunereboundedtoaround4.0%.TheGDPgrowthdeacceleratedin2023Q2mainlyduetothesignificantweakeningoftheeconomyfromApriltoMay.SinceJune,thepoliciestostabilizeeconomicgrowthhavebeenappropriatelystrengthened.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofValue-AddedofIndustriesandIndexofServiceProductioninJunereboundedto4.1%and4.0%,respectively.Thismeansthatthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPinJunereachedaround4.0%,significantlyhigherthanthegrowthrateof3.3%inthesecondquarter.在政策支持下，下半年中国GDP增长将加快，全年GDP目标应该可以实现。按照今年GDP增长5.0%左右预期目标，全年GDP两年平均增速要达到4.0%。上半年GDP两年平均增长4.0%。政策支持推动6月经济企稳回升，GDP增速估计也接近目标。下半年政策继续力度进一步加大，预计GDP增长将加快，全年GDP增速可以达成目标。resResearch18/20Withdomesticpoliciesappropriatelystrengthenedin2023H2,China'sGDPgrowthwillaccelerateinH2andtheannualGDPtargetshouldbeachievable.TheexpectedtargetYoYgrowthrateofGDPthisyearbyChinagovernmentisaround+5.0%,whichmeansthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPreaches4.0%.In2023H1,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPcoincidedwithsuchatarget.InJune,thesupportivepolicieshadboostedtheeconomyandthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPisestimatedtohavealsoreachedthetarget.In2023H2,thegovernmentwillmakemoreeffortstoimproveeconomygrowth.ItisexpectedthattheGDPgrowthwillacceleratein2023H2,andtheannualGDPgoalcanbeachieved.风险因素：国内经济修复不及预期、海外经济大幅走弱Risks:Chinaeconomicrecoverymisstheexpectation;Overseaseconomiesweakensignificantly.resResearch19/20司或商标所有权人的书面许可，任何单位或个人不得使用该商标、服务标区管辖范围内，本报告内容或其适用与任何政府机构、监管机构、自构的法律、规则或规定内容相抵触，或者中信期货有限公司未被授权在当地务，那么本报告的内容并不意图提供给这些地区的个人或组织，任何个人或查看或使用本报告。本报告所载的内容并非适用于所有国家或地区或者适用。此报告的内容不构成对任何人的投资建议，且中信以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何信期货有限公司不对因使用此报告及所载材料而造成的损合阁下。我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资。resResearch20/20sclaimerUnlessother