IEA-2021年全球电动汽车展望（英文）-2021.4正式版

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Acceleratingambitionsdespitethepandemic

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.

Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

Spain

Australia

Sweden

Austria

Switzerland

Belgium

Turkey

Canada

UnitedKingdom

CzechRepublic

UnitedStates

Denmark

IEAassociationcountries:

Estonia

Finland

Brazil

France

China

Germany

India

Greece

Indonesia

Hungary

Morocco

Ireland

Singapore

Italy

SouthAfrica

Japan

Thailand

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

NewZealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublic

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Abstract

Abstract

TheGlobalEVOutlookisanannualpublicationthatidentifiesand

discussesrecentdevelopmentsinelectricmobilityacrosstheglobe.

ItisdevelopedwiththesupportofthemembersoftheElectric

VehiclesInitiative(EVI).

Combininghistoricalanalysiswithprojectionsto2030,thereport

examineskeyareasofinterestsuchaselectricvehicle(EV)and

charginginfrastructuredeployment,energyuse,CO2emissionsand

batterydemand.Thereportincludespolicyrecommendationsthat

incorporatelearningfromfrontrunnermarketstoinformpolicymakers

andstakeholdersthatconsiderpolicyframeworksandmarket

systemsforelectricvehicleadoption.

Thiseditionalsofeaturesanupdateoftheelectricheavy-dutyvehicle

modelscomingontocommercialmarketsandslottedforreleasein

thecomingfewyears,andonthestatusofdevelopmentof

megachargers.Itcomparestheelectricvehiclesupplyequipmentper

EVwiththerecommendedAFIDtargets.Italsoanalysestheimpact

ofEVuptakeongovernments’revenuefromfueltaxation.Finally,it

makesavailableforthefirsttimetwoonlinetools:theGlobalEVData

ExplorerandGlobalEVPolicyExplorer,whichallowusersto

interactivelyexploreEVstatisticsandprojections,andpolicy

measuresworldwide.

PAGE|1

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Tableofcontent

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary

4

Introduction

8

Overview

9

ElectricVehiclesInitiative

10

ElectricVehiclesInitiativeaimstoaccelerateEVdeployment

11

ElectricVehiclesInitiativecampaigns

12

EV30@30andtheDrivetoZerocampaignssupportEVdeployment

13

ImplementingactionsoftheEV30@30campaign

14

Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricvehiclemarkets

15

Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectriclight-dutyvehicles

16

Morethan10millionelectriccarswereontheworld’sroadsin2020

withbatteryelectricmodelsdrivingtheexpansion

17

Electriccarregistrationsincreasedinmajormarketsin2020despitethe

Covidpandemic

18

Electriccarshadarecordyearin2020,withEuropeovertakingChina

asthebiggestmarket

19

ConsumerspendingonEVscontinuestorise,whilegovernment

supportstabilises

21

Moreelectriccarmodelsareavailable;rangesstarttoplateau

22

Automakersenticecustomerswithawidemenuincludingelectric

SUVmodels

23

ChinaleadsinelectricLCVsaleswithEuropenotfarbehindandKorea

enteringthemarket

24

18ofthe20largestOEMshavecommittedtoincreasetheofferand

salesofEVs

25

Manufacturers’electrificationtargetsalignwiththeIEA’sSustainable

DevelopmentScenario

26

Trendsanddevelopmentsinelectricheavy-dutyvehicles

27

PAGE|2

Electricbusandtruckregistrationsexpandedinmajormarkets

in2020

28

Electricheavy-dutyvehiclemodelsarebroadening

29

Typesofzero-emissionHDVsexpand,anddrivingrangelengthens

30

Privatesectorcommitmentandotherelectrificationtrends

31

Privatesectordemandforzero-emissioncommercialvehicles

amplifiesmarketsignalsforOEMstodevelopEVs

32

ClimateGroup’sEV100Initiativeupdateonprivatesector

commitments

33

BatterydemandlaggedEVsalesin2020;Europeseeshighestrisein

demand

34

Pandemicspreadspopularityofelectricmicromobility

35

Koreatakesaleadindeployingfuelcellelectricvehicles

36

Deploymentofelectricvehicle-charginginfrastructure

37

Publiclyaccessibleslowandfastchargersincreasedto1.3million

in2020

38

Installationofpubliclyaccessiblechargersexpandedsevenfoldin

thelastfiveyears;Covid-19mutedthepacein2020whileChina

stillleads

39

MostcountriesinEuropedidnotachieve2020AFIDtargetsfor

publiclyaccessiblechargers

40

Planningneedstostartnowformegachargerstoenablelong-distance

trucking

41

Policiestopromoteelectricvehicledeployment

42

Areweenteringtheeraoftheelectricvehicle?

43

Morethan20countrieshaveelectrificationtargetsorICEbansforcars,

and8countriesplustheEuropeanUnionhaveannouncednet-zero

pledges

47

Policiesaffectingtheelectriclight-dutyvehiclemarket

48

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Policiesbuoyedelectriccarsalesin2020despitetheCovid-19

pandemic

49

SubsidieshavebeeninstrumentalinboostingEVsalesduringthe

pandemic

51

Currentzero-emissionlight-dutyvehiclepoliciesandincentivesin

selectedcountries

52

Strongpoliciesunderpinmajorelectriccarmarkets

53

China’smajorcitieshaveimplementedabroadarrayofEVpromotion

policies

54

Governmentsroll-outplansforinterconnectedcharginginfrastructure

networks

59

MarketsforEVbatterysupplyheatup

61

Policiesaffectingtheelectricheavy-dutyvehiclemarket

63

Currentzero-emissionheavy-dutyvehiclepoliciesandincentivesin

selectedcountries

64

Publicpoliciesprepareforexpectedsurgeinelectricheavy-duty

vehicles

65

GovernmentinvestmentincharginginfrastructureforHDVsisslowly

pickingup

68

LinkstosourcesforfiguresandtablesinChapter2

69

Prospectsforelectricvehicledeployment

71

Outlookforelectricmobility

72

Passengercarsdrivethegrowthofelectricvehiclesto2030

74

EVspenetrateallroadtransportmodesintheshortterm

75

EuropeandChinacontinuetoleadglobalEVmarkets

77

Electrificationofroadtransportaccelerates,butatvaryingspeeds

78

Tableofcontent

Charginginfrastructure

81

Privatechargingforelectriclight-dutyvehicleswilldominatein

numbersandcapacity

82

ChargingpointsforLDVsexpandtoover200millionandsupply

550TWhintheSustainableDevelopmentScenario

83

Implicationsofelectricmobility

85

Annualbatterydemandgrowstwenty-foldintheSustainable

DevelopmentScenario

86

Electricvehiclesdiversifythetransportenergymix

87

EVsaccountforaminorshareofglobalelectricityconsumption

in2030

88

NetreductionofGHGemissionsfromEVsincreasesovertime

89

GHGemissionbenefitsfromEVsmultiplyaselectricitygeneration

decarbonises

90

Measuresareneededtobalancereducedrevenuefromfueltaxes

associatedwithEVuptake

91

Annex

92

Abbreviationsandacronyms

93

Unitsofmeasure

94

Acknowledgements

95

PAGE|3

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

PAGE|4

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Strongmomentuminelectricvehiclemarketsdespitethepandemic

Therewere10millionelectriccarsontheworld’sroadsattheendof2020,followingadecadeofrapidgrowth.Electriccarregistrationsincreasedby41%in2020,despitethepandemic-relatedworldwidedownturnincarsalesinwhichglobalcarsalesdropped6%.Around3millionelectriccarsweresoldglobally(a4.6%salesshare),andEuropeovertookthePeople’sRepublicofChina(“China”)astheworld’slargestelectricvehicle(EV)marketforthefirsttime.Electricbusandtruckregistrationsalsoexpandedinmajormarkets,reachingglobalstocksof600000and31000respectively.

TheresilienceofEVsalesinthefaceofthepandemicrestsonthreemainpillars:

Supportiveregulatoryframeworks:evenbeforethepandemicmanycountrieswerestrengtheningkeypoliciessuchasCO2emissionsstandardsandzero-emissionvehicle(ZEV)mandates.Bytheendof2020,morethan20countrieshadannouncedbansonthesalesofconventionalcarsormandatedallnewsalestobeZEVs.

AdditionalincentivestosafeguardEVsalesfromtheeconomicdownturn:someEuropeancountriesincreasedtheirpurchaseincentivesandChinadelayedthephase-outofitssubsidyscheme.

ThenumberofEVmodelsexpandedandbatterycostcontinuedtofall.

Vehiclemanufacturersannouncedincreasinglyambitiouselectrificationplans.Outoftheworld’stop20vehiclemanufacturers,

Executivesummary

whichrepresentedaround90%ofnewcarregistrationsin2020,18havestatedplanstowidentheirportfolioofmodelsandtorapidlyscaleuptheproductionoflight-dutyelectricvehicles.Themodelavailabilityofelectricheavy-dutyvehiclesisalsobroadening,withfourmajortruckmanufacturersindicatinganall-electricfuture.

ConsumerspendingonelectriccarpurchasesincreasedtoUSD120billionin2020.Inparallel,governmentsacrosstheworldspentUSD14billiontosupportelectriccarsales,up25%from2019,mostlyfromstrongerincentivesinEurope.Nonetheless,theshareofgovernmentincentivesintotalspendingonelectriccarshasdecreasedoverthepastfiveyears,suggestingthatEVsarebecomingincreasinglyattractivetoconsumers.

Thenear-termoutlookforEVsalesisbright.Inthefirst-quarterof2021,globalelectriccarsalesrosebyaround140%comparedtothesameperiodin2020,drivenbysalesinChinaofaround500000vehiclesandinEuropeofaround450000.USsalesmorethandoubledrelativetothefirst-quarterof2020,albeitfromamuchlowerbase.

EVsaresettobeamorecommonsightontheworld’sroadsinthe2020s

Existingpoliciesaroundtheworldsuggesthealthygrowthoverthisdecade:intheStatedPoliciesScenario,theEVstockacrossallmodes(excepttwo/three-wheelers)reaches145millionin2030,accountingfor7%oftheroadvehiclefleet.

rightsreserved.

PAGE|5

IEA.All

GlobalEVOutlook2021

EVmarketscouldbesignificantlylargerifgovernmentsaccelerateeffortstoreachclimategoals.IntheSustainableDevelopmentScenario,theglobalEVfleetreaches230millionvehiclesin2030(excludingtwo/three-wheelers),astockshareof12%.

TheexpandingfleetofEVswillcontinuetoreducewell-to-wheelGHGemissions,withthenetsavingsrelativetointernalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesincreasingovertimedependingonthepaceatwhichelectricitygenerationdecarbonises.In2030,intheStatedPoliciesScenario,theglobalEVfleetreducesGHGemissionsbymorethanone-thirdcomparedtoanequivalentICEvehiclefleet;intheSustainableDevelopmentScenario,thelevelrisestotwo-thirds.

Policiesneedtoleveragemomentumtofurtheraccelerateelectrification

EvenwiththerecentsuccessofEVdeployment,reachingatrajectoryconsistentwithclimategoalsisaformidablechallenge.Itrequiresstrongerambitionandactionfromallcountries.AdvancesinbatterytechnologyandmassmanufacturingwillcontinuetodrivedownthecostofEVs.

Executivesummary

Butthe2020swillneedtoseemorethanjustthemassadoptionofelectriclight-dutyvehiclestomeetclimategoals.Governmentswillalsoneedtoputinplacepoliciestopromotetheroll-outofzero-emissionvehiclesinthemedium-andheavy-dutyvehiclesegmentsandthecorrepondingfast-charginginfrastructure.

Intheshortterm,countriescancontinuetoimplement,enforceandtightenmeasuressuchasCO2andfueleconomystandardsandEVmandates.Taxinggasolineanddieselatratesthatreflecttheirenvironmentalandhumanhealthimpactscanprovidegovernmentrevenue,reducetheirnegativeimpactsandhastenthetransitiontoelectricmobility.DifferentiatedtaxationofvehiclesandfuelsthatreflecttheirenvironmentalperformancecanfurtheralignmarketswiththeclimatebenefitsofEVs.

Inorderforelectricvehiclestoattaintheirfullpotentialtomitigatecarbonemissions,criticalprogressisrequiredtodecarboniseelectricitygeneration,tointegrateelectricvehiclesinpowersystems,tobuildcharginginfrastructureandtoadvancesustainablebatterymanufacturingandtheirrecycling.

PAGE|6

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Executivesummary

Electricvehiclesacrossalltransportmodeshadsteadygrowthoverthelastdecade

Globalelectricvehiclestockbyregion(left)andtransportmode(right),2010-2020

Million

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Region:

China

Europe

Transportmode:

PLDVs

LCVs

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

UnitedStates

Other

Buses

Trucks

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:PLDVs=passengerlight-dutyvehicles,LCVs=light-commercialvehicles.Electricvehiclesincludebatteryelectricandplug-inhybridelectricvehicles.EuropeincludesEU27,Norway,Iceland,SwitzerlandandUnitedKingdom.OtherincludesAustralia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,India,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,

NewZealand,SouthAfricaandThailand.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedoncountrysubmissions,complementedby

ACEA(2021);CAAM(2021);EAFO(2021);EVVolumes(2021)

and

Marklines(2021).

PAGE|7

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

Introduction

PAGE|8

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Overview

Vehiclemanufacturersandpolicymakersareboostingtheirattentionandactionsrelatedtoelectricvehicles(EVs).EVtechnologiessuchasfullbatteryelectricandplug-inhybridelectricmodelsareattactiveoptionstohelpreachenvironmental,societalandhealthobjectives.

Inadditiontobeing

two-tofour-timesmoreefficientthanconventional

internalcombustionenginemodels,

EVscanreducerelianceonoil-basedfuelsand,ifrunningonlow-carbonpower,candeliversignificantreductionsingreenhousegasemissions.Plus,withzerotailpipeemissions,EVsarewellsuitedtohelpsolveairpollutionissues.Moreover,EVsaredrivingadvancesinbatterytechnology–akeyissueforindustrialcompetitivenessinthetransitiontocleanenergy.

EVfleetsareexpandingatafastpaceinseveraloftheworld’slargestvehiclemarkets.ThecostsofbatteriesandEVsaredropping.Charginginfrastructureisexpanding.Thisprogresspromoteselectrificationoftransportmodessuchastwo/three-wheelers,light-dutyvehicles(LDVs)(carsandvans),taxisandsharedvehicles,busesandheavy-dutyvehicleswithshortrangerequirementssuchasurbandeliveries.ManufacturersarecontinuingtoexpandthenumberofEVmodelsavailabletocustomers.

Effectivepoliciesstillneededtoaddressupfrontinvestmentcosts,promoteEVcharginginfrastructureandensureasmoothintegrationofchargingdemandinpowersystems.Withfoundationsbeinglaid

Introduction

forwidespreadadoptionofEVsinseverallargeeconomies,therearestrongprospectsthatthe2020swillbethedecadeinwhichelectricmobilitysignificantlyexpands.

TheGlobalEVOutlook2021–theflagshipannualpublicationoftheElectricVehiclesInitiative–analysestheworldwidestatusofelectricmobility.Itconsidersthefactorsthathaveinfluencedrecentdevelopments,technologicalprospectsandtheoutlookforEVdeploymentintheperiodto2030.Theanalysisispresentedinthreechapters:

Chapter1discussestrendsinelectricmobilitywithhistoricaldataonEVregistrationsandstock,andavailabilityofcharginginfrastructuretotheendof2020.Itexploresthemainfactorsdrivingelectrificationofroadtransport,includingroll-outplansfromtheprivatesectorandotherdevelopmentstoApril2021.

Chapter2providesanoverviewofthecurrentpolicyframeworkrelevanttobothlight-dutyandheavy-dutyEVstoApril2021.IthighlightsmeasuresundertakenbygovernmentstoshieldtheEVmarketfromtheimpactoftheCovid-19panademic.

Chapter3presentstheoutlookforEVsandchargersto2030.Itassessestheirimpactsonenergyuse,greenhousegasemissions,batteryproductionvolumesandrevenuefromtaxes.

rightsreserved.

PAGE|9

IEA.All

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

ElectricVehiclesInitiative

PAGE|10

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

ElectricVehiclesInitiativeaimstoaccelerateEVdeployment

TheElectricVehiclesInitiative(EVI)isamulti-governmentalpolicyforumestablishedin2010undertheCleanEnergyMinisterial(CEM).RecognisingtheopportunitiesofferedbyEVs,theEVIisdedicatedtoacceleratingtheadoptionofEVsworldwide.Todoso,itstrivestobetterunderstandthepolicychallengesrelatedtoelectricmobility,helpgovernmentsaddressthemandtoserveasaplatformforknowledgesharing.

TheEVIfacilitatesexchangesbetweengovernmentpolicymakersthatarecommittedtosupportingEVdevelopmentandavarietyofpartners,bringingthemtogethertwiceayear.Itsmultilateralnature,opennesstovariousstakeholdersandengagementatdifferentlevelsofgovernance(fromcountrytocity-level)offerfruitfulopportunitiestoexchangeinformationandtolearnfromexperiencesdevelopedbyarangeofactorsinthetransitiontoelectricmobility.

TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)servesastheco-ordinatortosupporttheEVImembergovernmentsinthisactivity.GovernmentsthathavebeenactiveintheEVIinthe2020-21periodincludeCanada,Chile,People’sRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”),Finland,France,Germany,India,Japan,Netherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,SwedenandUnitedKingdom.CanadaandChinaco-leadtheinitiative.GreeceandGhanaareobservers.

TheEVIalsohelpstoraisetheambitionlevelsforelectricmobitlityworldwidethroughthelinkedCEMcampaignsofEV30@30andGlobalCommercialVehicleDrivetoZeroCampaign,eachendorsedbydifferentmembers.

EVIco-lead EVIco-lead

PAGE|11

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

ElectricVehiclesInitiativecampaigns

PAGE|12

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

EV30@30andtheDrivetoZerocampaignssupportEVdeployment

EV30@30Campaign

The

EV30@30Campaign

waslaunchedattheCEMmeetingin2017tospurthedeploymentofEVs.ItsetsacollectiveaspirationalgoalforEVs(excludingtwo/three-wheelers)toreach30%salesshareby2030acrossallsignatorycountries.ThisisthebenchmarkagainstwhichprogressistobemeasuredfortheEVImembers.Fourteencountriesendorsedthecampaign:Canada;Chile;China;Finland;France;Germany;India;Japan;Mexico;Netherlands;Norway;Portugal;SwedenandUnitedKingdom.Inaddition,30companiesandorganisationssupportthecampaign,including:C40;FIAFoundation;GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative;HewlettFoundation;NaturalResourcesDefenceCouncil;REN21;SLoCaT;TheClimateGroup;UNEnvironmentProgramme;UNHabitat;WorldResourcesInstitute;ZEVAlliance;ChargePoint;EnergiasdePortugal;EnelX;E.ON;Fortum;Iberdrola;Renault-Nissan-MitsubishiAlliance;SchneiderElectric;TEPCO;VattenfallandChargeUpEurope.

CoordinatedbytheIEA,thecampaignincludesfiveimplementingactionstohelpachievethegoalinaccordancewiththeprioritiesandprogrammesofeachEVImembercountry.

Theseinclude:

SupportandtrackthedeploymentofEVchargers.

GalvanisepublicandprivatesectorcommitmentstoincorporateEVsincompanyandsupplierfleets.

Scaleuppolicyresearchandinformationexchanges.

Supportgovernmentsthroughtrainingandcapacitybuilding.

EstablishtheGlobalEVPilotCityProgrammetoachieve100EV-FriendlyCitiesoverfiveyears.

DrivetoZeroCampaign

The

GlobalCommercialVehicleDrivetoZeroCampaign

waslaunchedatthe2020CEMmeetingandoperatesaspartoftheEVI.Thecampaign,administeredby

CALSTART,

acleantransportnon-profitorganisation,aimstobringgovernmentsandleadingindustrystakeholderstogethertocollaborativelydeveloppolicies,programmesandactionsthatcansupporttherapidmanufactureanddeploymentofzero-emissioncommercialvehicles.DrivetoZerocountsmorethan100pledgepartners,includingninenationalgovernments(asofApril2020)andleadingstate,provincialandregionalgovernmentsandagenciesfromacrosstheworld.

PAGE|13

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalEVOutlook2021

Introduction

ImplementingactionsoftheEV30@30campaign

GEF-7GlobalProgrammeonelectromobility

TheGEF-7GlobalElectricMobilityProgramme,fundedbythe

Global

EnvironmentFacility

(GEF),willbelaunchedinthesecond-halfof2021tohelplowandmiddle-incomecountriesshifttoelectromobility.Theprogrammeplanstoimplementoneglobalprojectand27countryprojectsoverafive-yearperiod.TheIEAtogetherwiththeUNEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)willleadtheglobalproject,whichaimstoexpandandcomplementtheworkoftheEVI.Undertheglobalproject,theIEAandUNEPalongwithworkinggroups(focusingonLDVs,two/three-wheelers,heavy-dutyvehiclesandsystemintegrationandbatteries)willdevelopknowledgeproductstohelpinformthecountryprojects