日常消费行业零研月报：3月多数品类商超渠道销售额同比承压-20210502-中金正文版

证券研究报告2021年

5月

2日日常消费零研月报：3月多数品类商超渠道销售额同比承压行业动态行业近况由于去年同期疫情阻塞部分渠道，居民日常消费转向商超渠道，商超渠道销售额基数较高，今年

3月多数品类商超渠道销售额同比承压。伴随疫情有效控制，渠道多元化（如餐饮渠道复苏、社区团购崛起等），我们提示商超渠道增速并不能完全反映行业整体增速情况。3月符合消费升级趋势的品类例如高端白酒、高端啤酒、鲜奶、高端白奶、高端酱油等品类的商超销售额表现好于其他品类。评论酒类：3月白酒收入同比增速较高（+42.9%），主因均价同比提升，高端表现好于行业整体。3月啤酒收入同比跌

26.9%，乌苏/喜力同比+18%/+4%，表现亮眼，啤酒消费分级态势明显，华润旗下雪花/普通勇闯销售额同比-52%/-37%。3月

Rio预调酒收入同比跌

17%，新三度微醺同增

0.9%。我们认为

3月白酒动销积极，主因节后聚饮场景恢复，部分宴席从

2-3Q提前至

1Q，次高端存补偿性需求；白沪深300中金日常消费17215413611810082酒均价提升幅度较大，反映出消费升级提速，千元价格带将成为今年行业亮点。乳制品：

3月乳制品收入同比转跌，主要因为

2月春节销售旺季，3月销售受到影响，1Q21奶粉/液态奶/酸奶销售额分别同比-5.9%/+6.6%/-13%。1Q21伊利/蒙牛/光明液态奶销售额分别同比+7.7%/+13.1%/+20.3%，并且伊利/蒙牛均价

ASP分别同比+12.2%/+8.3%，由此可见双龙头在液态奶（以纯奶为主）促销明显趋缓。1Q21金典/特仑苏销售额同比+20.3%/+24.3%，安慕希/纯甄/莫斯利安销售额分别同比-5.8%/+2.8%/-16.6%。我们认为

2021年仍为奶价上涨的一年，纯奶类产品的竞争促销将减弱，并且产品结构性升级将延续。2019-112020-022020-052020-072020-10目标P/E(x)股票名称评级价格2021E2022E贵州茅台-A跑赢行业2739.0045.787.844.267.544.728.929.452.340.871.443.329.744.98.740.066.8调味品：3月酱油行业收入同比跌幅扩大至

29%，其中千禾收入同比-4.2%，持续

山西汾酒-A优于行业。3月醋行业收入同比跌幅扩大至

28%。3月复合调味品行业收入同比

五粮液-A转负（-42%）。我们认为，调味品增长承压主要由于去年同期消费者囤货高基数

重庆啤酒-A跑赢行业

411.00跑赢行业

337.00跑赢行业

170.00111.7038.050.9影响，此外餐饮渠道逐渐恢复及线上与社区团购等渠道分流。-A青岛啤酒39.1跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业跑赢行业伊利-A46.3665.00100.0050.80279.4039.6084.0033.5026.0食品：3月多数子品类同比增速承压。3月肉制品销售额同比-29%。3月速冻米面行业销售额同比跌幅扩大至

51%。3月速冻火锅料行业收入同比-25.5%，其中安井食品同比+17%，表现明显优于行业。3月方便食品行业销售额同比跌幅扩大至

24%，方便面/自热品类/非自热品类销售额同比-24%/-30%/+312%。3月面包行业收入同比跌

14%，达利美焙辰同比+7.6%，表现亮眼。3月坚果炒货销售额同比-32%，洽洽每日坚果同比+70%，表现远好于行业。我们认为，3月份多数食品品类增速承压主因高基数；新兴高增赛道如冲泡食品仍实现强劲增长。洽洽食品-A绝味食品-A涪陵榨菜-A安井食品-A巴比食品-A青岛啤酒股份-H百威亚太-H26.041.431.454.136.526.036.4饮料：3月软饮料各品类销售额同比均有所下滑，包装水/茶饮料/碳酸饮料/果汁

万洲国际-H饮料销售额分别-2.6%/-3.6%/-13.7%/-18.1%，1Q21包装水/茶饮料/碳酸饮料/果汁

周黑鸭-H饮料销售额分别-13.0%/+5.5%/+0.0%/-4.2%，较前

3季度均有改善，显示出疫情

康师傅控股-H后期饮料行业逐渐复苏。3月康师傅的包装水、果汁产品销售额同比表现优于行

农夫山泉-H跑赢行业

9.50跑赢行业

11.00跑赢行业

18.20跑赢行业

47.00110.008.535.218.161.158.223.516.552.9业整体，农夫山泉与统一的茶饮料、果汁产品销售额同比表现优于行业整体。-H颐海国际45.0跑赢行业中金一级行业日常消费估值与建议我们结合商超及其他渠道销售，推荐组合为

A

股酒类：贵州茅台、山西汾酒、五粮液、重庆啤酒、青岛啤酒；A

股非酒：伊利股份、洽洽食品、绝味食品、涪陵榨菜、安井食品、巴比食品；H

股：青岛啤酒股份、百威亚太、万洲国际、周黑鸭、康师傅控股、农夫山泉、颐海国际。资料来源：万得资讯、彭博资讯、中金公司研究部风险部分品类商超渠道代表性有限（本套监测数据的统计方法和渠道代表性参见报告附录

1~2）。请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日目录评论完整版

...........................................................................................................................................................................4乳制品...................................................................................................................................................................................6速冻米面食品........................................................................................................................................................................9速冻火锅料食品..................................................................................................................................................................10肉制品.................................................................................................................................................................................11酱油.....................................................................................................................................................................................12复合调味品

.........................................................................................................................................................................13白酒.....................................................................................................................................................................................14啤酒.....................................................................................................................................................................................16方便食品

.............................................................................................................................................................................17包装水.................................................................................................................................................................................18茶饮料.................................................................................................................................................................................19果汁饮料

.............................................................................................................................................................................20碳酸饮料

.............................................................................................................................................................................21坚果炒货

.............................................................................................................................................................................22面包.....................................................................................................................................................................................23附录

1：数据统计方法说明................................................................................................................................................24数据范围

................................................................................................................................................................................24监测样本和抽样原理

............................................................................................................................................................24全国数据推算方法

................................................................................................................................................................24图表图表

1:酒类可比公司估值表......................................................................................................................................................5图表

2:非酒可比公司估值表......................................................................................................................................................6图表

3:3月行业销售额同比下滑，酸奶降幅大于行业，液态奶和奶粉跌幅小于行业.........................................................7图表

4:3月各品牌表现略有分化，辉山收入同比增长，低温鲜奶和奶酪增速亮眼.............................................................7图表

5:2021年

1-3月奶粉品牌中伊利、飞鹤、雅士利、圣元、菲仕兰、君乐宝、澳优市占率同比上升（销售额）....8图表

6:3月行业销售额受高基数影响增速承压，速冻汤圆和面食表现好于行业整体.........................................................9图表

7:3月各品牌因高基数表现承压，三全、龙凤表现好于行业整体.................................................................................9图表

8:2021年

1-3月思念、三全市占率同比提升（销售额）...............................................................................................9图表

9:3月行业销售额同比下滑，鱼制品收入降幅小于行业

..............................................................................................10图表

10:3月三全、安井销售额在高收入基数下继续保持高增长

........................................................................................10图表

11:2021年

1-3月安井、海霸王、三全市占率同比提升（销售额）

...........................................................................10图表

12:3月行业高基数下销售额同比双位数下滑，各品牌增长压力均较大.....................................................................11图表

13:2021年

1-3月双汇、雨润市占率同比下降（销售额）...........................................................................................11图表

14:3月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，千禾收入转跌

........................................................................................12图表

15:2021年

1-3月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）.......................................................................................................12图表

16:3月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，海底捞表现好于行业整体.....................................................................13图表

17:2021年

1-3月海底捞市占率同比提升（销售额）...................................................................................................13图表

18:3月行业销售额增速较高，主要高端产品收入增速均亮眼

....................................................................................14图表

19:3月各品牌销售额表现分化，水井坊、今世缘、五粮液、剑南春、洋河、郎酒、口子窖、汾酒、泸州老窖、茅台表现优于行业整体..................................................................................................................................................................14图表

20:2021年

1-3月五粮液、洋河、剑南春、郎酒、口子窖、水井坊市占率同比提升（销售额）............................15图表

21:3月行业销售额同比转跌，各品牌增速分化明显，惠泉、乌苏、喜力表现亮眼.................................................16请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明2中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日图表

22:2021年

1-3月青岛、百威、燕京、嘉士伯、喜力、珠江市占率同比提升（销售额）

.......................................16图表

23:3月行业销售额高基数下同比下滑，非自热品类（米饭、面食等）销售额延续高增长......................................17图表

24:3月自嗨锅销售额跌幅低于行业................................................................................................................................17图表

25:2021年

1-3月海底捞、自嗨锅市占率同比提升（销售额）

...................................................................................17图表

26:3月行业销售额同比跌幅收窄，康师傅、景田、怡宝表现好于行业平均.............................................................18图表

27:2021年

1-3月景田、康师傅、怡宝市占率同比提升（销售额）

...........................................................................18图表

28:3月行业销售额同比微跌，农夫山泉和统一驱动行业复苏

....................................................................................19图表

29:2021年

1-3月王老吉、加多宝市占率同比提升，康师傅、统一、农夫山泉、香飘飘、达利市占率同比下滑（销售额）..........................................................................................................................................................................................19图表

30：3月行业销售额同比转跌..........................................................................................................................................20图表

31:3月农夫山泉、百事果缤纷、统一、可口可乐、康师傅表现优于行业.................................................................20图表

32:2021年

1-3月农夫山泉、可口可乐、康师傅、统一、百事果缤纷市占率同比提升，汇源、味全市占率同比下降（销售额）..............................................................................................................................................................................20图表

33:3月行业销售额同比转跌，百事可乐和可口可乐跌幅均大于平均.........................................................................21图表

34:2021年

1-3月可口可乐和百事可乐市占率均同比下降（销售额）

.......................................................................21图表

35:3月行业销售额同比跌幅收窄，洽洽每日坚果表现亮眼

.........................................................................................22图表

36:2021年

1-3月洽洽每日坚果、三只松鼠、沃隆和百草味市占率同比提升，洽洽瓜子市占率同比下滑（销售额）......................................................................................................................................................................................................22图表

37:3月行业销售额高基数下同比下滑，达利美焙辰表现亮眼，桃李表现好于行业.................................................23图表

38:2021年

1-3月桃李、达利美焙辰市占率同比提升，达利达利园、曼可顿、宾堡市占率同比下降（销售额）

23图表

39:抽样方法举例（以北京为例）..................................................................................................................................24请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明3rQsRqOvMqRpPqPpMrOrNmN6M8Q7NnPoOoMnMiNpPrMfQrRtOaQpNtQvPqNtRvPoNtO中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日评论完整版由于去年同期疫情阻塞部分渠道，居民日常消费转向商超渠道，商超渠道销售额基数较高，今年

3

月多数品类商超渠道销售额同比承压。伴随疫情有效控制，渠道多元化（如餐饮渠道复苏、社区团购崛起等），我们提示商超渠道增速并不能完全反映行业整体增速情况。3

月符合消费升级趋势的品类例如高端白酒、高端啤酒、鲜奶、高端白奶、高端酱油等品类的商超销售额表现好于其他品类。酒类：3

月白酒收入同比增速较高（+42.9%），主因均价同比提升，高端表现好于行业整体，青花汾酒、国窖

1573、洋河梦之蓝、五粮液增速表现亮眼；各品牌销售额表现分化，其中水井坊、今世缘、五粮液、剑南春、洋河、郎酒、口子窖、汾酒、泸州老窖、茅台表现优于行业整体。3

月啤酒收入同比跌

26.9%，各品牌表现分化明显，乌苏/喜力同比+18%/+4%，表现亮眼；同时啤酒消费分级态势明显，华润旗下雪花/普通勇闯销售额同比-52%/-37%，跌幅大于大多数品牌。预调酒方面，3

月

Rio

预调酒收入同比跌

17%，新三度微醺同增

0.9%。我们认为，3

月白酒动销积极，主因节后聚饮消费场景恢复，加上部分宴席从二三季度提前至一季度，次高端存在补偿性需求；白酒均价提升幅度较大，反映出消费升级提速，千元价格带将成为今年行业亮点。乳制品：3

月乳制品收入同比转跌，主要因为

2

月春节销售旺季，3

月销售受到影响，其中

3

月奶粉/液态奶/酸奶销售额分别同比-9.6%/-6.1%/-22.2%。1Q21

奶粉/液态奶/酸奶销售额分别同比-5.9%/+6.6%/-13%，可见液态奶行业仍保持高个位数的增长。1Q21

伊利/蒙牛

/

光

明

液

态

奶

销

售

额

分

别

同

比

+7.7%/+13.1%/+20.3%

，

并

且

均

价

ASP

分

别

同

比+12.2%/+8.3%/-2.5%，由此可见伊利蒙牛均价均有抬升，主要由于部分纯牛奶产品涨价及促销减弱所致。1Q21

金典/特仑苏销售额同比+20.3%/+24.3%，安慕希/纯甄/莫斯利安销售额分别同比-5.8%/+2.8%/-16.6%。我们认为

2021

年仍为奶价上涨的一年，纯奶类产品的竞争促销将减弱，并且产品结构性升级将延续。调味品：3

月酱油行业收入同比跌幅扩大至

29%，其中千禾收入同比-4.2%，持续优于行业，海天/厨邦收入同比-31%/-35%。3

月醋行业收入同比跌幅扩大至

28%，恒顺收入同比-31%。3

月复合调味品行业收入同比转负（-42%），海底捞销售额同比-42%，表现与行业持平，天味销售额同比-49%，跌幅大于行业。我们认为，调味品增长承压主要由于去年同期消费者囤货高基数影响，此外餐饮渠道逐渐恢复及线上与社区团购等渠道分流，使得调味品各子品类商超渠道增速呈现逐季放缓趋势。食品：3

月多数子品类同比增速承压。3

月肉制品销售额同比转负（-29%），双汇销售额同比-35%，跌幅大于行业，我们认为主因去年同期学校等渠道受疫情影响，肉制品渠道转向连锁商超，致去年同期销售额基数较高。3

月速冻米面行业销售额同比跌幅扩大至51%，速冻汤圆表现（-48%）好于行业整体。3

月速冻火锅料行业收入同比-25.5%，其中安井食品同比+17%，表现明显优于行业整体。3

月方便食品行业销售额同比跌幅扩大至24%，康师傅、统一同比-24.2%/-23.7%，海底捞表现（-29.4%）弱于行业；方便面/自热品类/非自热品类销售额同比-24%/-30%/+312%，我们认为，伴随颐海等头部企业积极布局冲泡食品赛道，非自热品类增长强劲。3

月面包行业收入同比跌

14%，达利美焙辰同比+7.6%，表现亮眼，桃李表现（-11.8%）好于行业。3

月坚果炒货销售额同比-32%，洽洽每日坚果同比+70%，表现远好于行业。我们认为，3

月份多数食品品类增速承压，主要由于面临高基数压力；新兴高成长赛道如冲泡食品仍实现强劲增长。饮料：3

月软饮料各品类销售额同比均有所下滑，包装水/茶饮料/碳酸饮料/果汁饮料销售额分别-2.6%/-3.6%/-13.7%/-18.1%，受益今年外出消费场景复苏，包装水销售额跌幅收窄，而其他品类由于春节消费、去年基数等原因月度间分化及波动较明显，1Q21

包装水/茶饮料/碳酸饮料/果汁饮料销售额分别-13.0%/+5.5%/+0.0%/-4.2%，较前

3

季度均有改善，显示出疫情后期饮料行业逐渐复苏。3

月康师傅的包装水、果汁产品销售额同比表现优于行业整体，农夫山泉与统一的茶饮料、果汁产品销售额同比表现优于行业整体。请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明4中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日图表

1:酒类可比公司估值表净利润（财报货币

百万）2022E2020A/E2021E2022E收盘价

市值（百04-30万元）市盈率净资产收益率（%）2022E2020A/E2021E股票代码公司名称财报货币交易货币2020A/E2021E白酒600519.SH贵州茅台*000858.SZ五粮液*000568.SZ泸州老窖*600809.SH山西汾酒*600702.SH舍得酒业600779.SH水井坊*000860.SZ顺鑫农业*002304.SZ洋河股份*603589.SH口子窖*603369.SH今世缘*600559.SH老白干酒*000799.SZ酒鬼酒*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY2006.782,520,913285.001,106,25854.055.562.3118.948.968.842.838.826.143.150.4135.652.245.744.249.787.855.455.827.433.822.734.036.391.544.940.038.040.466.840.246.720.428.920.427.125.165.339.031.424.928.335.124.634.311.019.719.620.111.718.122.431.226.929.936.717.539.815.320.720.622.114.722.722.430.126.931.037.219.842.217.622.120.623.618.826.425.046,69719,9316,0063,00758155,21925,0487,5304,07277262,98129,0779,2665,3521,0631,0701,80210,0551,8322,473802255.58410.25127.05102.3049.65374,361357,54442,75849,96736,829290,09537,34467,02820,13564,57065,7997278968601,3448,5901,6421,972554192.5062.247,4771,4291,55540053.4322.44198.724767059891,4921,8072,153啤酒01876.HK百威亚太*600600.SH青岛啤酒*00168.HK青岛啤酒股份*00291.HK华润啤酒*600132.SH重庆啤酒*000729.SZ燕京啤酒*002461.SZ珠江啤酒*603076.SH乐惠国际中值USDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYCNY24.5591.0170.5062.75157.387.39271,025103,040103,024169,69876,16720,82924,2145,78381.656.436.881.871.5105.842.550.264.044.944.729.748.267.562.233.9N.M.44.936.439.126.039.150.956.028.4N.M.39.15.011.111.110.271.11.58.412.912.916.1243.82.59.613.613.617.9285.32.75142,2012,2012,0941,0651979282,7772,7773,6261,1293351,1463,1753,1754,4721,49637210.9467.006.57.88.856971485213.110.7n.a.n.a.106n.a.n.a.89,59612.913.68171,1291,496其他酒类600059.SH古越龙山*601579.SH会稽山*000869.SZ张裕

A*002568.SZ百润股份*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY11.9911.2536.95124.5210,9295,59568.719.453.8123.661.255.436.128.295.945.732.137.521.876.134.83.38.94.14.56.74.314128947152438017515589767542530214919,76166,72415,3454.68.610.530.28.61,16185124.36.727.36.5577注：标*公司为中金覆盖，采用中金预测数据；其余使用市场一致预期资料来源：万得资讯、彭博资讯、公司公告、中金公司研究部请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明5中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日图表

2:非酒可比公司估值表净利润股票代码财报货

交易货

收盘价

市值（百市盈率净资产收益率（%）公司名称（财报货币

百万）2020A/E2021E2022E2020A/E2021E2022E2020A/E2021E2022E币币04-30万元）乳制品600887.SH伊利股份*600597.SH光明乳业*中值CNYCNYCNYCNY40.95249,08335.234.935.028.931.330.126.027.927.025.010.117.626.810.418.626.710.818.77,0786088,6266769,57375917.3021,184135,1343,8434,6515,166肉制品000895.SZ双汇发展*00288.HK万洲国际*中值CNYUSDCNYHKD36.64126,94520.315.618.019.28.717.98.531.18.928.714.121.431.013.422.26,2568286,6281,4734,0517,1071,5184,3136.7983,463105,20413.913.220.03,542日常调味品603288.SH海天味业*600872.SH中炬高新*603027.SH千禾味业600305.SH恒顺醋业*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY169.50549,25585.841.8124.257.371.572.737.764.451.357.860.830.849.845.747.734.920.89.734.120.314.914.117.633.722.317.014.719.66,4038902063156027,5599873283526699,0391,20743646.6832.9017.9837,18721,92418,03329,55613.517.2394822复合调味料01579.HK颐海国际*603317.SH天味食品*603755.SH日辰股份中值CNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNY75.7044.0062.4566,06327,7406,15875.376.276.276.258.264.452.358.245.053.139.345.030.013.1n.a.29.311.117.017.027.012.519.919.9885364811,1714311,51252311815727,74021.5364431523其他调味品600298.SH安琪酵母*002507.SZ涪陵榨菜*300908.SZ仲景食品中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY58.7239.9571.2348,39031,5357,13135.340.642.940.631.440.843.040.827.231.434.631.425.124.713.324.723.914.210.214.223.212.811.412.81,3727771,5407721,7791,00420612816631,5357777721,004速冻食品002216.SZ三全食品*603345.SH安井食品*605338.SH巴比食品*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY19.9015,90520.798.851.151.121.271.443.343.319.454.136.536.529.418.814.918.822.420.811.820.820.123.112.120.17686041756047518352077518201,102246252.0061,59536.168,96815,905820休闲食品603719.SH良品铺子*002557.SZ洽洽食品*300783.SZ三只松鼠*603866.SH桃李面包*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY51.4153.9554.2549.2520,61527,35321,75433,49824,55360.034.072.237.949.044.629.455.135.440.040.526.045.131.035.819.620.515.120.620.120.421.017.619.019.719.421.518.820.519.93448053018835744629293959456965091,0534831,079781卤制品603517.SH绝味食品*01458.HK周黑鸭*中值CNYCNYCNYHKD86.319.5252,53118,91235,72274.9122.898.852.335.243.741.423.532.414.73.619.012.615.821.217.119.27011514261,0045391,2708079.27711,039保健品300146.SZ汤臣倍健*中值CNYCNY32.7051,69933.930.424.623.623.526.31,5241,7002,10151,69933.930.424.623.623.526.31,5241,7002,101婴配奶粉06186.HK中国飞鹤01717.HK澳优01112.HKH&H国际控股*中值CNYCNYCNYHKDHKDHKD22.15164,96022.115.813.415.822.312.711.712.718.210.811.211.248.321.919.321.936.221.819.621.834.022.917.522.97,4371,0041,1371,1377,4831,2751,3241,3249,1151,5611,3821,56111.5028.0016,45515,04416,455软饮料09633.HK农夫山泉*00506.HK中国食品*中值CNYCNYHKDHKD41.15385,78373.815.244.561.114.637.952.913.533.241.610.526.136.610.423.532.910.721.85,2774996,5105307,5155753.237,532196,6582,8883,5204,045H

股食品饮料综合00322.HK康师傅控股*00220.HK统一企业中国*03799.HK达利食品*00151.HK中国旺旺*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYHKDHKDHKDHKD13.989.464.625.6365,55334,06252,73956,62954,68416.321.213.814.315.318.119.913.513.415.816.517.512.313.014.720.011.822.824.921.417.812.621.021.719.419.614.219.619.319.44,0621,6263,8494,3453,9553,7321,7624,0224,4693,8774,1002,0024,4244,6174,262注：标*公司为中金覆盖，采用中金预测数据；其余使用市场一致预期资料来源：万得资讯、彭博资讯、公司公告、中金公司研究部请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明6中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日乳制品单位：销售额

万元，销售量

吨，单价

元/公斤图表

3:3月行业销售额同比下滑，酸奶降幅大于行业，液态奶和奶粉跌幅小于行业历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年3月全国商超乳制品销售额当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q191,461,904.1772,883.7-12.3%-17.8%-27.2%-24.2%5,033,555.72,593,169.5-2.0%-5.7%32.8%24.3%-20.1%-19.1%-2.0%-5.7%-1.2%-2.3%-1.8%-1.2%3.1%6.5%1.7%4.8%4.1%4.4%6.9%6.7%6.9%6.5%7.8%6.1%销售量其中：奶粉销售额销售量单位均价196,404.212,583.8156.1-9.6%-5.3%-4.6%-7.5%-24.0%21.7%666,498.246,375.0143.7-5.9%4.6%-10.1%6.1%50.1%-29.3%-11.4%-13.9%2.9%-5.9%4.6%-10.1%-3.6%2.5%-6.0%-6.6%0.6%-7.2%-5.5%3.9%-9.0%-4.7%-8.0%3.5%-3.5%-2.2%-1.3%4.3%3.0%1.3%4.0%2.7%1.3%2.9%4.2%-1.2%液体奶销售额销售量单位均价699,515.8484,500.614.4-6.1%-14.1%9.4%-30.3%-24.0%-8.2%2,442,112.81,629,495.115.06.6%-0.3%6.9%49.5%31.1%14.1%-15.5%-13.0%-2.9%6.6%-0.3%6.9%7.1%3.7%3.3%7.4%5.4%1.8%15.4%15.8%-0.4%5.6%8.6%-2.8%9.8%8.7%1.1%12.1%11.0%0.9%9.9%9.4%0.5%9.2%6.7%2.4%酸奶销售额销售量单位均价506,698.5271,819.118.6-22.2%-24.4%2.9%-29.0%-24.6%-5.8%1,728,498.6904,240.219.1-13.0%-14.9%2.2%19.8%12.6%6.4%-31.3%-28.9%-3.3%-13.0%-12.2%-11.6%-14.9%-12.2%-10.3%-8.0%-5.8%-2.3%-2.4%-0.4%-2.0%-0.8%-1.7%1.0%1.6%1.4%0.2%3.9%3.0%0.9%7.1%5.3%1.7%2.2%0.0%-1.4%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表

4:3月各品牌表现略有分化，辉山收入同比增长，低温鲜奶和奶酪增速亮眼历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年3月当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19各公司全国商超销售额综合型企业：伊利405,902.2329,012.298,528.766,645.121,393.18,406.3-13.1%-11.9%-9.2%-13.0%-7.5%5.8%-36.4%-36.8%-24.3%-5.2%-8.3%-5.6%1,482,423.31,199,006.7335,546.4213,018.065,863.6-1.6%4.1%3.1%-8.4%-1.6%34.5%49.5%59.9%27.5%-6.4%7.9%-28.5%-22.9%-6.9%-5.9%-4.6%29.4%-1.6%4.1%3.1%-8.4%-1.4%1.2%0.3%0.2%-2.7%1.9%3.0%-0.4%1.3%12.5%6.3%4.7%-4.3%-2.5%5.9%4.0%8.8%7.5%3.6%11.1%8.6%6.3%6.0%3.9%11.9%8.3%27.7%1.2%3.4%8.7%7.4%27.3%5.3%3.1%7.9%4.7%8.7%40.4%8.7%5.5%蒙牛光明三元新希望辉山-1.6%-11.6%-10.5%34.5%27,135.892.2%47.2%23.5%0.4%-19.3%-21.4%-1.4%液态奶伊利207,608.8208,305.053,261.1-5.2%-4.3%0.2%-33.9%-37.4%-19.1%737,954.3758,238.3182,703.27.7%13.1%20.3%60.2%80.3%27.6%-19.9%-19.0%34.9%7.7%13.1%20.3%10.1%10.0%12.0%7.3%11.1%26.7%13.0%30.0%25.7%0.8%11.4%27.2%8.2%16.5%38.3%9.6%18.8%26.8%8.4%10.3%24.3%10.1%4.7%18.0%蒙牛光明植物蛋白达利—豆本豆伊利—植选维他豆奶1,784.9714.53,368.6-11.3%-40.9%-19.2%-28.4%-18.3%-13.0%5,940.22,420.010,766.7-15.3%-38.5%-14.4%25.8%-18.3%-3.7%-45.1%-49.9%-19.5%-15.3%3.5%-11.4%-25.3%-40.3%-28.3%-40.2%-32.6%-29.7%23.9%293.7%-38.5%-44.7%-52.0%-55.0%-56.4%-23.1%-14.3%-14.4%-11.1%-12.1%-6.9%-10.9%-15.6%-13.8%7.3%11.0%0.3%7.1%11.8%6.1%儿童奶旺旺-旺仔牛奶18,649.338,345.9-3.9%-59.3%-8.4%87,377.14.8%91.5%-42.8%-35.6%4.8%-6.7%-10.8%0.0%-3.5%4.8%7.1%13.2%-1.4%乳酸菌养乐多-32.3%112,132.9-27.0%-11.6%-27.0%-15.5%-16.5%-6.9%-7.8%奶粉企业伊利35,312.58,389.42,669.733,059.812,925.634,028.74,691.79,015.75,692.36,236.61,967.2-15.6%51.2%-52.7%-1.8%-29.2%-18.8%-20.9%-2.8%-30.5%-32.7%4.9%34.3%27.4%-20.1%34.9%39.8%4.4%136,332.632,720.69,169.3-5.8%56.1%-47.7%-5.2%-25.6%-13.5%-19.7%-17.5%19.2%-9.4%35.1%184.5%-44.8%-19.1%-39.0%3.2%-28.0%-40.9%31.2%-23.9%-16.1%-23.1%7.5%-45.6%3.0%-10.8%-21.2%-12.8%-7.8%2.8%-5.8%-10.6%-10.3%-7.0%-12.5%26.3%12.0%-9.5%35.2%-6.8%24.9%-0.4%9.8%7.3%-0.2%蒙牛—雅士利贝因美飞鹤56.1%22.3%25.6%-47.7%-34.2%-30.6%-28.8%-18.3%-13.0%-5.2%-3.8%-6.7%-0.5%2.6%5.3%-25.6%-15.2%-18.0%-19.6%-6.5%-14.2%-8.1%-11.9%-13.1%-10.3%-12.7%-7.4%-10.2%-21.3%17.4%0.9%97,022.340,457.6123,831.814,049.326,762.417,186.520,856.15,678.39.7%0.5%-0.5%14.1%-2.5%-4.9%美赞臣雀巢-13.5%-1.3%雅培-19.7%-11.0%-7.4%-15.6%-13.2%-23.9%-21.4%-13.1%-19.9%合生元君乐宝达能-17.5%19.2%-9.4%-4.6%-6.5%-19.7%-25.0%-7.0%83.7%39.6%-2.9%-7.0%80.4%30.9%26.6%6.0%77.7%70.3%-6.1%9.7%93.2%60.8%9.4%4.6%82.3%65.5%14.3%30.0%-4.1%19.8%16.6%3.7%49.6%5.4%2.7%64.7%13.6%3.1%2.5%18.8%0.0%-12.1%澳优-4.6%-7.6%低温鲜奶伊利金典鲜牛奶蒙牛每日鲜语光明优倍685.23,341.516,005.47,464.61038.4%123.0%-16.1%581.3%-31.3%3.1%-7.3%11.4%2,615.39,365.657,220.321,599.31333.5%116.5%6.8%2051.1%156.4%-10.0%1128.9%78.0%56.4%1334%1387%-------116.5%6.8%29.5%-4.5%47.8%138.1%255.7%769.6%1162.4%3511.4%5.0%-26.0%-21.5%36.1%32.2%36.3%25.5%光明新鲜牧场1176.3%1816.3%2911.0%1176%6241%7186%19494%----奶酪百吉福妙可蓝多蒙牛19,605.020,574.92,590.55,126.5-21.7%50.0%-22.5%198.6%-29.1%-24.8%-22.6%-21.4%67,572.667,289.38,422.1-6.2%70.4%-10.7%257.9%23.1%138.2%10.9%-17.1%35.6%-18.9%192.1%-6.2%70.4%-10.7%258%-0.7%59.8%21.3%200%2.0%72.5%45.3%145%17.3%19.9%11.0%7.3%7.5%18.3%96.7%104.4%176.1%241.1%407.8%740.1%72.6%244%60.9%34.6%21.3%21.5%6.5%369%伊利16,159.2420.1%480%1542%15904%3948%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明7中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日图表

5:2021年

1-3月奶粉品牌中伊利、飞鹤、雅士利、圣元、菲仕兰、君乐宝、澳优市占率同比上升（销售额）25%20%15%10%5%0%年初累计数据上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明8中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日速冻米面食品单位：销售额

万元，销售量

吨，单价

元/公斤图表

6:3月行业销售额受高基数影响增速承压，速冻汤圆和面食表现好于行业整体历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年3月全国商超速冻米面食品当月同比环比年初累计同比

2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19销售额销售量155,626.665,225.9-50.6%-48.3%-71.6%-72.3%980,080.1417,493.6-29.8%-28.1%-11.6%-8.6%-40.2%-40.7%-29.8%-28.1%-5.6%-9.8%11.8%3.9%22.2%15.1%40.5%24.2%15.6%7.2%9.2%3.5%3.5%-2.0%0.2%-3.3%其中：速冻汤圆销售额销售量27,056.313,950.319.4-48.1%-45.4%-5.0%-90.0%-88.9%-9.9%358,750.7169,960.221.1-12.3%-12.2%-0.1%15.8%15.8%0.0%-50.4%-49.0%-2.7%-12.3%-12.2%-0.1%-5.6%-8.5%3.2%8.1%0.5%7.6%17.4%4.7%12.1%9.0%-0.7%9.8%6.1%-0.5%6.7%5.0%4.7%0.3%-0.9%0.0%-0.9%0.5%-0.6%1.1%单位均价水饺销售额销售量单位均价52,094.122,407.723.2-55.9%-54.1%-3.9%-58.9%-58.0%-2.0%274,630.8117,652.223.3-40.7%-39.3%-2.3%-28.8%-27.4%-1.9%-42.6%-41.5%-1.9%-40.7%-39.3%-12.9%-2.3%-8.4%9.9%2.2%7.6%38.5%27.3%8.8%69.3%50.7%12.4%20.3%11.1%8.2%8.9%0.4%8.4%-0.8%-9.4%-12.3%9.5%-4.6%5.2%8.8%面食销售额销售量单位均价31,311.013,545.123.1-49.7%-45.4%-7.9%-41.1%-38.9%-3.6%131,158.355,659.123.6-37.0%-34.1%-4.4%-37.1%-34.0%-4.6%-24.0%-23.4%-0.7%-37.0%-34.1%-4.4%3.3%-1.6%5.0%21.1%13.4%6.8%34.3%18.5%13.3%60.1%41.1%13.5%13.0%7.4%5.2%8.1%5.5%2.5%5.4%5.7%-0.2%6.0%5.7%0.3%粽子销售额销售量单位均价984.0486.720.2-58.2%-46.8%-21.4%-28.3%-10.3%-20.1%3,593.31,567.422.9-50.2%-43.1%-12.3%-41.3