证券研究报告 全A指数PE（TTM）5年20.7%分位 20230827 -中信建投

证券研究报告策略周报全A指数PE(TTM)5年20.7%分位odcqcsccomcnwencsccomcn年08月27日本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国(仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾)提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投(国际)证券有限公司在香港提供。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。本周市场表现/景气/估值要点概览2核心观点：市场表现层面，本周低市盈率、小盘、消费风格表现居前。盈利层面，8月23年Wind盈利一致预期上调幅度靠前的申万一级行业为美容护理、商贸零售、食品饮料，近一周汽车零部件盈利预测上调明显。景气层面，“认房不认贷”推进，后续观察一线城市执行情况；乘用车销售有韧性，看好“金九银十”表现；猪价维稳调整，短期需求或有所提升。估值及交易热度层面，机器人、证券交易热度市场表现：本周(8.19-8.25)低市盈率、小盘、消费风格表现居前；交通运输、高市盈率、大盘表现靠后。主要指数成分中，上证50、沪深300表现居前；宁组合、中证1000表现靠后。行业涨跌幅上，环保/农林牧渔/食品饮料涨幅居前，建筑装饰/电力设备/机械设备跌幅居前。热门概念普遍下跌。盈利预测变动：8月23年Wind盈利一致预期上调幅度靠前的申万一级行业为美容护理(+4.36%)、商贸零售(+0.20%)、食品饮料(+0.02%)；下调幅度靠前的行业为农林牧渔、建筑材料。数字经济产业链细分方面，以Wind一致预期看，23年盈利预期排序：SAAS(146%)>网络安全(143%)>数据安全(120%)>显示面板(107%)>在线教育(79%)>数字政府(73%)>游戏(除世纪华通)(72%)>IDC(66%)。行业景气核心指标变动：1)周期：价格上行：焦煤/焦炭、玻璃、水泥、动力煤等；价格震荡：铝等；价格下行：螺纹钢、布油、铜等；2)大金融：地产方面，“认房不认贷”推进，后续观察一线城市执行情况。据克尔瑞地产监测，截至8月20日当周，14城二手房成交面积环比下降2%，同比下降7%。30城新房成交面积同比-26.7%，降幅较上周收窄0.8pct，销售仍承压。银行方面，MLF下调后5年LPR未降，银行净息差维护；3)高端制造：汽车方面，乘用车销售有韧性，看好行业“金九银十”表现。据乘联会初步统计，8月1-20日，乘用车市场零售94.7万辆，同比增长5%，环比增长1%。新能源车市场零售35.1万辆，同比增长29%，环比增长1%。光伏方面，产业链上游再续涨势，静待需求改善。4)消费：必选方面，猪价维稳调整，短期需求或有所提升。可选方面，白酒整体以库存消化为主，关注Q3中秋、国庆旺季动销表现。估值水平及交易热度：全A(非金融两油)、沪深300股权风险溢价均位于7年90%分位上方；上证指数/上证50估值分别处于5年28.5%/33.6%分位数附近；创业板指/宁组合分别处于市盈率5年4.3%/0.0%分位数附近。交易热度方面，申万一级板块中，环保板块热度高企。申万二级板块中，机器人、证券交易热度高位。股指及风格市场表现：低市盈率/小盘占优-2.0-4.0本周(8.19-8.25)低市盈率、小盘、消费风格表现居前；-2.0-4.000表现靠后。900924797-6上证-4.8时间大/小盘低/中/高市盈率中信风格低中高金融地产原材料设备制造交通运输消费科技07MW408MW108MW208MW308MW41.121.60-0.11-2.48-0.11-2.48-0.44-3.73-3.49-2.37-3.750.440.91-3.58-3.61-4.170.440.91-3.58-3.61-4.170.05-3.250.05-3.25-1.62-1.71-3.30-2.56-2.882.800.00-2.45-2.05-2.572.800.00-2.45-2.05-2.572.773.680.240.49-3.90-2.87-3.958.153.00-4.57-2.46-3.88-1.533.00-4.57-2.46-3.88-1.53-2.48-2.29-1.36-0.90-0.94-0.35-4.45-3.39-1.19-1.44行业涨跌幅表现：环保/农林牧渔/食品饮料表现居前环农食传煤银石家有环农食传煤银石家有社非医公基建钢通汽纺房电国计美商轻交机电建保林品媒炭行油用色会银药用础筑铁信车织地子防算容贸工通械力筑牧饮石电金服金生事化材服产军机护零制运设设装渔料化器属务融物业工料饰工理售造输备备饰2.00.80.0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.40.0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.5-4.0-2.2-2.4-2.5-2.6-2.7-2.7-2.8-2.8-2.9-3.3-3.4-3.4-3.7-1.1-6.0-4.7-4.8-5.0-6.0-4.7-4.8-5.0-5.4-5.60005.0 0本周表现居前申万二级行业涨跌幅表现(%).54.51.90.70.70.60.60.50.40.30.3渔业出版白酒家电零部件国行型银养殖业3炼化及贸易4农商行5白色家电6股份制银行6工业金属前板块分析析23.2%100.0%8月24日,日本启动福岛第一核电站核污染水排海。同日，海关总署发布公告，决定自2023年8月24日(含)起全面暂停进口原产地为日本的水产品(含食用水生动物),带动淡水养殖景气底部反弹，水产养殖板块活跃。5.5%30.4%据中国黄金协会统计，上半年黄金饰品消费量达368.26万吨，同比增长14.82%。市场关注鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，贵金属提前走强。8月25日，鲍威尔发表讲话，警告通胀“依旧过高”，并表示“如果适宜，美联储准备继续加息”，表明未来还会进一步加息的价有所回落。4.7%94.4%8月21日财政部发布《关于印发<企业数据资源相关会计处理暂行规定>的通知》，并明确文件于2024年1月1日起施行。明确数据资源可入表，适用于现行会计准则，数据资源根据类型按照无形资产(以自用为目的)或存货(以出售为目的)的会计准则进行处理，或可降低当期表观损益情况，直接利好拥有数据资源公司。2.1%94.9%8月24日，国家发改委、生态环境部、住建部印发了《环境基础设施建设水平提升行动(2023—2025年)》，部署推动补齐环境基础设施短板弱项，全面提升环境基础设施建设水平，同日，日本启动福岛第一核电站核污染水排海，核污染防治概念持续发酵。wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7wwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w100201920202021202220230002021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-0312000002022-062022-092022-122023-032023-0600据跟踪生产复苏情况wwww0w3w6w9w2w5wwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w211233455677899上下中上下中上下中上下中上下中上下中图：汽车全钢胎(重型卡车)开工率上行(%)201920202021202220230wwwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w220192020202120222023700020192020202120222023Wind7wwww0wwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w220192020202120222023020192020202120222023wwwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1201920202021202220230wwwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1周期阶段起始时间终止时间持续时间主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存9主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存36主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存9主动补库存被动补库存被动去库存327主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存67422比550060%50%40%30%20%%0%PE(TTM)10年分位PE(TTM)10年分位A融、石油石化)上证指数中证500万得全A沪深300科创50创业板指宁组合科创50-11.0%-9.0%-7.0%-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%近近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)050A茅指数510152025303540 PE(整体法，TTM)指数近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)PE(整体法,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(中位数,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位万得全A-0.9%1616.77.1%20.7%24.9%331.5111.68%22.95%11.52%1.561.3%7.8%6.8%万得全A(除金融、石油石化)-1.2%226.55.2%23.4%26.3%332.0811.68%23.73%11.91%22.170.0%15.6%15.2%上证指数-0.6%12.620.8%28.5%27.3%228.1122.72%44.35%24.80%1.299.7%14.4%10.9%沪深300-1.1%11.47.8%15.2%21.6% 20.136.49%19.84%16.40%1.323.9%7.4%10.5%上证50-0.6%9.718.2%33.6%36.7%7.7353.24%68.87%68.55%1.2414.3%42.0%47.1%中证500-1.9%22.22.041.6%35.5%18.4%223.7835.71%43.19%21.67%1.7016.2%16.7%8.4%中证1000-4.6%33.833.840.9%34.8%24.7%229.335.84%17.89%10.37%0.0%11.7%6.6%创业板指-1.4%229.10.0%4.3%2.2%333.467.14%14.00%7.03%%12.5%8.4%科创50-10.4%38.02.6%2.2%2.2%44.120.64%0.53%0.53%3.803.800.0%0.0%0.0%茅指数-0.4%221.30.0%18.4%54.5%330.432.59%2.33%19.33%3.953.953.2%13.6%48.4%宁组合-0.3%227.90.0%0.0%0.0%331.770.00%0.00%0.00%5.360.0%13.2%43.0%Wind10081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204沪深300隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间7年均值87654321003543210-1-2080106110409020712051003080106110409万得全A隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间02071205隐含风险溢价=1/指数市盈率-中债10年期国债0308010611040903080106110409020712051003080106110409020712050308010611040902071205100308010611040902071205图：万得全A(除金融两油)股权风险溢价图：沪深300(除金融)股权风险溢价4沪深300(除金融)隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间3 3万得全A4沪深300(除金融)隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间3221100-1-1隐含风险溢价=1/指数市盈率-中债10年期国债股指PE-G/PB-ROE数PE-G(注：蓝色空心圆代表上一月盈利预期所在位置)图：主要指数PB-ROE38万预测创A除金0PE万预测创A除金0沪深300沪深300上5101520253035975BROEROE(TTM)-23Q1数数创业板指上证50证指数创创0中00PB(LF)0123456板块年初至今涨跌幅-19.2-19.2-14.9-25.0-6.7盈利增速预测7月调整幅度8月调整幅度44.36%上周调整幅度本周调整幅度美容护理38.9%-34.8%62.3%0.70.76%3.30%综合83.0%-4.3%-36.1%-0.04%-0.04%3.39%0.00.00%3.46%商贸零售-164.5%72.7%64.7%-2.09%-2.09%0.20.20%0.50.53%-0.-0.16%食品饮料9.8%23.7%-0.23%-0.23%0.00.02%-0.07%-0.07%-0.09%-0.09%家用电器4.823.3.626.7-10.60.1%9.9%0.40.42%-0.02%-0.02%0.00.07%0.00.00%传媒82.2%-68.9%216.2%0.30.39%-0.03%-0.03%-0.23%-0.23%--0.36%建筑装饰-3.3%-0.-0.13%-0.-0.10%0.00.00%-0.08%-0.08%通信9.5%-0.24%-0.24%-0.22%-0.22%-0.-0.13%-0.02%-0.02%交通运输2041.1%-44.1%0%00.10%-0.26%-0.26%-0.05%-0.05%-0.-0.19%银行-2.8-5.6-13.-13.3-10.5-0.62.3-0.3-13.40.259.47.6%5.3%-0.07%-0.07%-0.27%-0.27%0.00.00%-0.-0.18%国防军工8.5%-7.4%74.1%-0.52%-0.52%--0.30%--0.31%-0.03%-0.03%社会服务8.3%-43.4%2207.8%0.30.39%-0.48%-0.48%-0.24%-0.24%--0.38%房地产-77.4%-213.4%89.3%0.00.04%-0.49%-0.49%0.00.04%-0.-0.17%汽车-0.4%45.5%0.00.09%-0.54%-0.54%-0.-0.14%--0.33%环保-13.3%-11.1%32.6%-0.29%-0.29%-0.55%-0.55%-0.-0.11%--0.36%公用事业-58.7%84.6%91.9%-0.65%-0.65%-0.-0.17%-0.54%-0.54%医药生物55.6%-6.2%28.6%-0.48%-0.48%--0.78%-0.22%-0.22%-0.64%-0.64%机械设备9.5%-6.1%31.5%-0.57%-0.57%-1.06%-1.06%-0.-0.17%-0.58%-0.58%石油石化0%30.9%6.0%0.00.09%--1.35%-0.57%-0.57%-0.42%-0.42%非银金融5.4%-26.9%36.2%--0.32%-1.40%-1.40%-0.21%-0.21%--1.12%轻工制造-5.3-1.-1.2-7.10.6%-32.2%64.1%-0.51%-0.51%-1.69%-1.69%-0.-0.10%--1.12%纺织服饰59.8%-42.8%26.6%-0.-0.12%-1.81%-1.81%--0.39%.23%有色金属4%68.4%7.3% -2.42%-2.27%-2.27%-0.-0.17%-1.89%-1.89%计算机6.0%-44.2%94.9%-0.64%-0.64%--2.38%-0.66%-0.66%-1.62%-1.62%电子-2.8-3.1-16.2-16.2-12.2-10.7-9.7-11.996.2%-28.4%26.2%-1.-1.10%-2.63%-2.63%-0.66%-0.66%--1.33%钢铁89.9%-72.9%56.7%-0.25%-0.25%-2.97%-2.97%-1.01%-1.01%-1.99%-1.99%电力设备42.0%82.8%33.0%-0.42%-0.42%-3.51%-3.51%-0.44%-0.44%.25%基础化工.7%-5.6%3.3% -2.89%-3.59%-3.59%-0.65%-0.65%-2.-2.13%煤炭72.9%51.7%-5.3%--4.34%-1.41%-1.41%-1.97%-1.97%建筑材料-46.1%-0.99%-0.99%--0.30%-9.03%农林牧渔-140.8%4%52.4%-6.94%-18.46%-13.30%-2.95%-2.95%动力煤更新时间2023/8/252023/8/232023/8/25动力煤更新时间2023/8/252023/8/232023/8/252023/8/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/212023/8/42023/6/302023/6/30更新时间2023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/25指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势价格动力煤期货价环渤海动力煤纽卡斯尔现货价动力煤长协价周月801.4715.0154.7704.0元/吨元/吨美元/吨元/吨0.0%-0.1%6.1%0.4%-6%-2%17%-2%量原煤产量当月同比进口量当月同比月月0.166.9%%-4.3-431--库存CCTD主流港口库存周6548.9万吨-1.8%23%求样本区域电厂日耗当月发电量消费量：动力煤：电力周月月221.3万吨8461.7亿千瓦时22157.0万吨-6.2%14.4%11.6%5%20%指标焦煤频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势价格国内期货价港口现货价日日1509.01582.0元/吨元/吨7.4%0.0%-23%-17%量原煤产量当月同比进口量当月同比%%3.1--库存六港口合计焦化厂可用天数周周160.39.8万吨天-6.2%-0.5-26%-1.7指标频率铜数值单位周/月环比趋势更新时间2023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/8/252023/8/25价格阴极铜期货国内现货日日6.66.9万元/吨万元/吨-3.6%06%4%8%产量精炼铜铜材进口铜矿+废铜月月月.4.6212.4吨吨吨-5.7%-11.1%-7.4%5%3.9%3.3%库存上期所LME+COMEX4.1吨吨3.5%04%-3%-24%铝指标频率数值单位环比同比趋势价格铝期货国内现货日日万元/吨万元/吨0.6%-2%%产量电解铝铝材进口铝土矿开工率月月月月348.1528.4291.193.3吨吨吨%0.8%-12.4%.7%2.2%22.2%0.3库存上期所LME周日9.852.6吨吨88%-45%94%8642050-102016-092017-112019-012020-032021-052022-07MLFLPR社融/信贷分别新增5282/3459亿，大幅低于市场预期，实体经济融资需求相。图：地产板块核心景气跟踪指标图：社融/M2/GDP同比情况指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势更新时间2022/12/312022/12/312023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/202023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/202023/8/202023/6/302023/6/302023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/31土地新建土地购置面积同比新增土地成交价款同比土地溢价率月月周-51.6-51.32.1%%%6.8-0.5-09---31价格70城新房价格指数同比70城二手房价格指数同比百城住宅价格：一线：同比百城住宅价格：二线：同比百城住宅价格：三线：同比二手房价格指数月月月月月周-0.6-3.1-0.2-0.40.0183.3%%%%%-0.20-0.30-0.010.06-0.1400%------44%量30城成交面积同比商品房销售面积：累计同比开发投资：累计同比施工面积：累计同比新开工面积：累计同比竣工面积：累计同比周月月月月月-26.7-6.5-8.5-6.8-24.520.5%%%%%%0.8-1.2-0.6-0.2-0.21.5------库存10城可售面积10城存销比周周8384.187.6万平米%0.2%10.3-3.8%21.0资金住房贷款加权平均利率个人住房贷款余额同比开发资金累计同比国内贷款累计同比个人按揭贷款累计同比自筹资金累计同比季季月月月月4.1-0.7-11.2-11.5-1.0-230%%%%%%0.0-1.0-1.4-0.4-3.70.4-0.5-6.914.216.924.2-116指标频率数值指标频率数值单位环比同比趋势更新时间2023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/252023/5/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/6/302023/6/302023/6/30价格多晶硅(致密料)单晶硅片182mm单晶硅片210mm单晶PERC电池片182mm单晶PERC电池片210mm单晶PERC组件-182mm光伏玻璃3.2mmEVA出厂价-扬子巴斯夫75.014000元/千克元/片元/片元/W元/W元/W元/M2元2.7%6.3%3.6%0.0%0.0%-0.8%0.0%0.0%-75.2%-55.5%-56.1%-41.9%-43.0%-37.1%-5.5%-28.2%产销国内装机量同比太阳能电池产量同比逆变器出口金额同比光伏电池出口金额同比月月月月88.965.1-13.0-282%%%%-210.32.5-46.9-237---开工率硅料：一线厂商单晶硅片：一线厂商单晶电池片：一线厂商组件：一线厂商月月月月101.081.084.053.0%%%%2.0-7.0-6.0-9.0----光伏：产业链上游再续涨势，静待需求改善。产业链上，据PVInfolink，本周多晶硅(致密料)价格持续上行，环比涨图：汽车板块核心景气跟踪指标图：光伏板块核心景气跟踪指标指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势更新时间2023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/242023/8/202023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/25警指数月月月.82-1%率5%零售同比批售同比量00%%00-37%--.期货价货价货价日日日日03%1.3%6%06%指标频率数值单位指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势更新时间2023/8/272023/8/252023/8/182023/8/182023/8/252023/8/252023/7/262023/7/262023/7/262023/6/302023/6/30价格外三元生猪价格生猪期货价仔猪价格猪肉价格17.2631.922.3元/公斤万元/吨元/公斤元/公斤0%0%2%-23%-26%-35%-24%养殖利润养殖利润-生猪养殖利润-仔猪生猪饲料价猪料比价猪料比价平衡点周周周周周21.9-4.6元/头元/头元/公斤-15.74.70%0.1-446.8-704.5-2.4产量生猪存栏同比能繁母猪存栏同比月月10.5%%-0.9-1.1--幅上涨。猪肉消费受临近照气跟踪指标图：饮品板块核心景气跟踪指标酒类更新时间2023/8/202023/8/202023/8/202023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/7/312023/7/31指标频率数值单位环比同比趋势白酒批价指数同比名酒批价指数同比地方酒批价指数同比飞天茅台散瓶五粮液-普五泸州老窖-国窖舍得-品味洋河梦之蓝M6+古井贡-古20-10年产量京东线上销额0.5%0.3%2850.096089534060047521528.718.6元元元元元元元亿元-0.2%-0.2%-0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-24%-55%-1.5%-2.7%-4.8%-6.5%-13.6%0.0%-4%5%36大中城市均价产量淘宝+京东线上销额月月月4.1402.44.8升亿元-1.2%-4%5%-3%大类行业近一周23年盈利预测变动(%)PE(TTM,整体)3年分位5年分位10年分位PETTM中位数)3年分位5年分位10年分位 (LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交额占比近一周变换手率(MA5)五近一周五年分位数化年分位变化消费美容护理纺织服饰食品饮料家用电器医药生物轻工制造商贸零售社会服务农林牧渔2.31%42.112.5%41.5%56.8%38.539.7%45.9%25.0%4.12.4%37.4%52.3%78.6%56.2%0.270.54%23.738.1%46.7%31.8%23.844.9%38.0%18.9%.710.1%15.7%7.8%29.8%28.7%-0.02%29.65.8%17.3%38.6%34.21.9%15.7%9.8%5.78.2%17.6%54.0%16.7%14.4%0.0013.56.8%14.0%14.4%22.00.6%8.2%4.1%2.32.6%3.8%5.9%4.0%7.4%0.01-0.39%24.827.0%18.3%9.1%27.90.0%3.9%2.0%2.70.1%0.9%0.5%16.5%-2.2%24.1%-0.41-0.85%28.966.9%79.9%47.6%26.525.0%18.0%9.0%.95.8%37.5%19.3%75.5%35.8%-0.01-2.34%34.071.9%83.1%66.5%31.864.1%75.7%57.0%.843.2%62.6%33.2%59.5%-0.4%39.1%-0.2577.920.0%48.6%71.3%39.28.3%38.4%26.4%3.211.8%16.7%10.2%74.8%46.5%0.05-9.91%28.040.5%40.0%26.2%39.726.9%31.1%24.8%2.72.7%10.4%6.4%19.5%41.6%0.78制造汽车国防军工机械设备电力设备1.75%28.623.9%51.9%74.7%33.734.0%55.3%43.5%2.114.7%48.8%37.7%66.8%-0.3%43.4%-0.061.34%51.35.1%3.1%1.6%52.90.6%18.4%9.7%3.04.5%39.8%36.5%36.2%11.1%0.05-0.77%28.338.8%51.4%31.6%34.930.1%25.5%12.7%2.23.7%35.1%28.1%69.0%23.0%0.0619.40.1%0.0%0.0%31.40.0%7.8%4.1%2.80.0%37.0%33.3%50.5%16.7%-0.07周期石油石化有色金属煤炭钢铁基础化工建筑材料-0.48%14.155.8%47.2%23.5%33.360.3%63.1%36.1%.310.8%14.9%7.4%10.2%20.9%0.0012.50.1%0.1%0.0%26.25.8%3.9%2.0%2.10.1%30.9%15.9%5.1%10.3%0.15-2.21%5.80.2%0.1%0.1%6.926.9%16.5%8.2%.111.6%35.9%23.4%26.0%24.0%0.15-2.91%23.594.8%96.9%58.9%18.483.3%89.8%53.1%0.910.8%27.5%24.1%23.2%26.0%0.04-3.88%16.436.2%30.5%15.2%25.927.6%18.8%9.4%.90.0%28.6%14.3%7.9%26.4%0.17-9.86%18.392.5%95.5%56.6%24.482.1%80.8%40.2%.43.6%2.2%1.1%6.2%14.2%0.03科技通信传媒电子计算机-0.04%29.925.2%15.2%8.0%49.751.3%49.0%27.7%2.250.0%33.3%18.6%77.2%46.0%0.33-0.56%42.384.2%80.6%53.9%45.979.5%82.0%54.5%2.553.8%63.0%33.4%70.4%0.5939.459.0%60.2%35.6%43.460.9%60.0%31.8%2.40.0%7.0%3.5%5.3%3.4%0.1360.764.2%67.4%65.9%58.266.7%65.1%42.3%3.426.3%29.7%17.2%72.1%0.67金融地产房地产银行建筑装饰非银金融5.34%14.894.0%96.4%64.8%20.373.7%83.9%54.7%0.914.7%8.8%4.4%55.3%-0.6%-0.384.77.1%4.2%5.0%5.05.1%3.1%9.7%0.55.9%3.5%1.8%36.5%53.4%0.00-0.67%9.129.1%22.0%11.3%25.457.7%72.2%50.6%0.84.5%2.7%1.3%70.4%0.3415.164.1%48.0%34.8%23.880.1%51.8%40.2%.230.0%18.0%9.0%-2.6%-0.43公用环保公用事业交通运输3.92%21.856.4%46.6%23.4%24.872.4%74.1%36.9%.514.5%9.0%4.5%1.450.09%23.442.5%64.6%59.0%22.233.3%35.3%17.6%.633.0%54.9%27.6%20.8%19.0%0.05-0.41%12.830.7%18.5%9.2%18.839.7%27.5%19.3%.40.5%13.3%14.4%57.0%31.3%0.04资料来源：Wind，中信建投(注：成交额占比指相对全A占比)PB(LF)五年分位0计算机0汽车023年业绩增速(%)Wind一致预期气泡大小表示23Q1ROE(TTM)电子0PB(LF)五年分位0计算机0汽车023年业绩增速(%)Wind一致预期气泡大小表示23Q1ROE(TTM)电子0传媒公用事业非银金融有色金属1用电器煤炭纺织服饰美容护理钢铁国防军工石油石化建筑装饰医药生物建筑材料机械设备电力设备交通运输轻工制造环保食品饮料基础化工通信银行景气方向板块近一周23年盈利预测变动(%)近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)边际上调房地产环保美容护理国防军工纺织服饰公用事业5.34%3.92%2.31%0.54%0.09%348.76%0.49%0.99%9.49%0.36%边际下调食品饮料通信家用电器银行医药生物交通运输石油石化传媒建筑装饰机械设备轻工制造电力设备非银金融有色金属煤炭商贸零售钢铁社会服务计算机基础化工建筑材料农林牧渔-0.02%-0.04%-0.39%-0.41%-0.48%-0.56%-0.67%-0.77%-0.85%-2.21%-2.34%-2.91%-3.88%-9.86%-9.91%0.060.06%-0.38%-0.26%-0.04%7.647.64%0.020.02%-0.75%-5.26%-3.89%-4.28%-3.95%-21.38%-3.88%-5.67%-23.75%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%QROE(TTM)来分位基础化工石油石化%食品饮料家用电器银行电子房地产-10%炭%公用事业QROE(TTM)来分位基础化工石油石化%食品饮料家用电器银行电子房地产-10%炭%公用事业轻工制造PB分位0%10%20%30%40%50%60%M板板块23Q1ROE(TTM)2010年以来分位23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)变动方向23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)变动通信电力设备有色金属煤炭基础化工国防军工石油石化机械设备食品饮料钢铁家用电器美容护理农林牧渔传媒纺织服饰环保交通运输轻工制造公用事业商贸零售建筑材料汽车非银金融社会服务医药生物计算机建筑装饰银行房地产98.0%98.0%94.0%94.0%70.0%68.0%62.0%62.0%46.0%42.0%36.0%30.0%28.0%24.0%22.0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%8.0%4.0%4.0%2.0%2.0%0.0%上行上行上行上行上行上行上行上行-0.2-1.2-2.8-2.0-3.0-0.3-1.0-0.5-0.5-1.6-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2--1.4--0.90.1-0.2-1.6-0.5-0.2值及交易指标：汽车零部件发盈利预测上调明显估值水平大类行业近一周23年盈利预测变动(%)PE(TTM,整体)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位数)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交额占比近一周换手率(MA5)五近一周五年分位数变化年分位变化消费化妆品41.50.5%0.5%34.1%61.2%38.514.7%28.0%25.7%3.80.7%34.6%26.4%82.7%0.0%62.5%0.42家电零部件28.63.7%3.7%33.5%25.3%26.32.6%2.8%1.7%3.41.9%33.1%41.7%42.8%0.0%12.6%-0.17航空机场0.96%1360.578.7%87.2%93.6%44.748.1%68.1%80.0%3.378.9%87.3%92.9%69.1%0.0%29.5%0.03家居用品0.44%23.914.4%13.4%6.7%22.421.8%13.3%6.9%2.311.0%43.0%22.1%20.2%-0.1%14.9%0.00啤酒0.08%37.52.1%1.6%15.5%32.40.6%1.6%3.4%4.34.6%41.9%70.1%83.1%-0.1%64.0%-0.110.02%30.411.3%11.3%33.9%59.5%32.28.3%39.0%44.2%7.813.0%28.4%63.7%19.4%0.1%15.7%0.11白色家电0.02%11.115.6%11.1%9.6%14.11.3%0.8%0.4%2.37.3%4.4%2.2%5.0%0.0%0.9%0.02小家电-0.01%22.83.4%8.5%4.2%21.92.6%20.9%13.1%3.50.1%23.9%36.4%52.0%0.0%53.4%0.18医疗器械19.133.5%20.1%10.0%25.30.6%0.4%0.2%2.60.1%0.1%0.0%24.7%-0.3%12.2%-0.29食品加工-0.42%22.90.1%0.1%0.1%30.517.3%14.9%7.9%2.90.1%0.1%0.0%8.9%0.0%16.2%-0.06化学制剂-0.58%30.89.9%10.7%5.8%25.60.0%0.4%0.2%2.77.5%4.5%2.3%22.7%-0.4%23.9%-0.47CXO-0.81%22.17.8%4.7%2.3%29.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.76.8%4.1%2.0%55.4%-0.1%51.6%-0.28酒店餐饮-2.99%211.243.9%66.3%83.2%83.355.1%72.0%80.5%2.79.2%42.3%21.8%78.1%0.0%58.1%-0.46医疗服务84.888.6%25.5%46.6%73.216.7%31.5%36.3%6.20.3%33.5%50.1%31.0%0.0%5.4%-0.13养殖业20.741.4%31.7%24.1%35.332.7%54.3%31.6%3.011.8%7.1%6.8%11.6%0.1%11.0%0.16制造汽车零部件28.949.9%69.9%66.3%35.641.0%60.8%44.9%2.112.3%45.0%29.4%89.3%-0.1%49.2%-0.07航空装备2.57%48.90.4%10.2%5.1%49.70.0%26.7%14.0%3.30.1%37.0%31.3%6.0%-0.1%1.5%-0.03工程机械25.472.4%83.0%59.6%29.182.7%87.0%54.8%.814.1%20.0%51.8%10.6%0.0%14.4%0.03乘用车-0.33%24.36.6%6.6%43.8%72.0%16.00.0%11.4%7.9%2.25.8%43.4%62.0%47.2%-0.2%41.3%-0.13电网设备-0.58%16.50.0%0.0%0.0%33.634.6%29.1%18.3%2.22.5%39.0%22.4%13.4%-0.3%10.9%-0.29电池-0.87%24.70.4%1.3%0.7%29.67.1%4.3%2.7%3.50.0%26.0%20.1%44.3%0.0%27.2%-0.20军工电子-0.95%41.17.7%8.4%4.2%40.05.1%3.5%2.2%3.50.5%27.9%20.1%30.8%0.0%6.3%0.11光伏设备14.30.1%0.1%0.0%26.20.0%5.5%3.5%3.30.1%35.0%40.7%54.1%0.2%13.6%0.20风电设备25.547.7%60.6%39.1%30.753.8%66.9%46.2%.60.0%16.7%11.1%58.1%0.0%24.4%0.33机器人-3.36%77.888.5%93.1%74.1%41.244.9%52.8%33.3%3.943.7%61.1%31.3%97.4%0.0%94.0%-0.11TMT游戏-0.38%37.985.0%87.5%53.2%32.478.2%68.5%44.7%3.075.3%73.6%40.2%86.6%0.0%68.9%0.40消费电子-0.55%27.724.9%22.5%11.2%34.537.2%30.6%16.0%2.87.3%4.4%2.2%18.8%0.1%6.6%0.11半导体-2.81%48.235.1%28.4%14.1%58.945.5%36.5%20.0%3.60.0%17.1%22.0%10.8%-0.1%1.2%0.07金融地产公用房地产开发6.25%14.494.0%96.4%64.8%20.076.3%85.5%58.1%0.816.7%10.1%5.0%58.6%-0.6%88.8%-0.38电力0.07%24.442.6%65.5%78.3%24.650.6%66.7%53.0%.535.0%58.0%42.3%50.3%0.1%33.1%0.05城商行4.94.9%3.0%9.1%5.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.53.6%2.1%1.1%38.3%-0.1%41.8%-0.03证券-0.25%21.062.0%40.7%38.7%29.084.0%54.5%55.5%.338.8%32.1%18.1%90.7%-2.4%86.7%-0.68基础建设-0.42%8.041.5%36.0%17.9%13.735.9%36.5%19.1%0.734.0%21.8%10.9%83.5%0.3%78.8%0.52物流13.70.8%0.5%0.4%19.02.6%1.6%0.8%.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%0.0%29.8%0.13周期能源金属6.00.0%0.0%0.0%6.10.0%0.0%0.0%2.10.0%0.0%0.0%12.9%0.0%1.0%0.08普钢-0.89%25.995.9%97.5%65.6%13.351.9%70.5%53.6%0.827.6%25.3%21.5%30.4%0.0%31.7%0.03贵金属43.579.4%72.2%54.3%30.718.6%14.9%11.5%2.951.2%65.8%50.6%30.4%0.0%31.7%0.03农化制品9.72.9%1.7%0.9%15.422.4%13.8%8.6%.90.3%32.0%16.7%35.3%0.0%9.3%0.00煤炭开采5.30.3%0.2%0.1%6.025.6%15.7%9.9%.117.4%45.5%28.2%37.1%0.2%29.9%0.13工业金属-2.24%15.334.4%20.7%10.3%23.030.1%18.8%9.9%.937.0%62.1%42.8%37.6%0.2%16.7%0.11装修建材-2.34%29.154.7%60.6%40.1%31.477.6%75.7%39.8%2.45.8%17.1%13.9%26.3%0.0%42.3%0.050.300.190.480.480.49.310.300.340.430.31数字经济产业链细分22年实际增速23年预测增速(Wind一致预期)(2023E)(2023E)上游网络安全显示面板操作系统半导体设备计算机设备半导体材料消0.300.190.480.480.49.310.300.340.430.31数字经济产业链细分22年实际增速23年预测增速(Wind一致预期)(2023E)(2023E)上游网络安全显示面板操作系统半导体设备计算机设备半导体材料消费电子服务器半导体分立器件光纤光缆汽车电子基站光模块半导体封测-77%-82% -3% 25%-12% 37%-15%4%-13%324%9% 4% 33% -2%-45%143%66%54%48%45%43%34%33%33%31%30%26%22%14%%43.320.332.049.929.924.220.725.622.222.924.140.328.70.930.620.540.580.770.670.770.92数据安全云计算工业软件运营商-48%-40%-20% -4%9%146%65%43%10%43.441.03游在线教育数字政府游戏(除世纪华通)数字媒体金融科技智能汽车智能物流智能电网-60% 0%-23%-11%127% 43%79%73%72%47%43%21%20%16%33.738.422.629.030.80.530.610.720.910.590.93.0.0操作系统.0.040.0数字政府3在线教育金融科技金融科技半导体设备服务器数字媒体基站计算机设备基站计算机设备游戏(除世纪华通)智能汽车半导体分立器件运营商运营商汽车电子消费电子半导体材料10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%.0.0光伏加工设备创新药光伏加工设备电池组件风电设备40%50%60%70%80%90%23年预测增速(Wind一致预期)(2023E)(2023E)储能逆变器风电设备消费电子光伏加工设备电池组件半导体设备半导体材料军工动力电池智能汽车新能源整车创新药新材料智能电网硅料硅片20.631.530.020.233.920.521.120.321.421.726.8.160.200.350.280.520.0.460.770.550.620.60 0.74 0.87 1.24 1.20 0.89 65%58%54%54%52%48%44%44%37%34%34%29%25%22%19%18%11%-15%手率：普遍下跌，数据要素相对抗跌类别指数名称本周涨跌幅近1月涨跌幅PS(TTM)三年分位PE(TTM)三年分位换手率(MA5)五年分位近一周变化汽车无人驾驶热管理--3.0%-4.8%-8.1%-10.2%1.20.0%36.62.9%10.1%0.051.614.4%39.624.6%3.7%0.05新能源发电TOPcon电池特高压光伏屋顶HJT电池储能光伏逆变器-3.3%-3.8%-4.9%-5.4%-6.0%-10.7%-8.8%-9.7%-8.4%-12.2%-3.3%-3.8%-4.9%-5.4%-6.0%-6.0%-1-6.0%1.60.1%21.20.0%1.6%0.011.53.6%17.00.1%0.1%-0.071.50.1%13.70.1%2.7%0.081.50.0%12.00.0%2.3%0.162.00.0%25.60.0%0.5%-0.033.12.9%24.20.0%4.5%0.26半导体EDA半导体设备IGBT第三代半导体先进封装半导体材料-3.2%-4.1%-4.5%-4.9%-5.2%-5.7%-7.7%-12.5%-11.5%-11.5%-17.6%--3.2%-4.1%-4.5%-4.9%-5.2%-5.7%1.521.1%34.256.1%56.1%26.6%0.086.55.6%41.60.3%11.2%%25.80.0%5.6%0.013.70.0%71.1 41.0%3.3%0.101.617.4%57.973.8%73.8%13.4%%32.00.0%2.0%0.07新消费预制菜CRO医美培育钻石-0.5%-2.4%0.90.4%52.7558.6%81.1%0.80-2.9%-2.9%-6.2%-13.1%-3.1%-4.1-4.1%--6.0%5.56.0%23.57.1%48.2%-0.353.53.7%43.74.0%13.7%0.043.719.5%42.121.7%3.1%-0.09科技数字货币AIGC东数西算元宇宙数字经济信创云计算机器视觉华为鸿蒙工业互联网6G-0.8%0.3%2.97.7%151.4661.6%66.5%0.30-1.4%-2.3%-3.4%-3.6%-4.5%-4.6%-7.0%-7.1%-10.8%-8.0%-9.4%-8.4%-1.4%-2.3%-3.4%-3.6%-4.5%-4.6%-4.6%-4.8%-4.9%-10.8%-9.0%-4.6%-4.8%-4.9%-5.3%-1-5.3%1.86.2%0.00.0%68.9%0.862.779.8%91.881.2%80.8%0.882.218.8%47.982.0%14.9%0.051.925.2 38.3%32.3%0.152.210.6%35.547.0%0.192.1 35.1%65.0554.0%73.7%0.522.946.246.2%34.69.0%0.151.425.7%235.035.5%35.5%48.9%0.581.1 34.4%21.8 36.5%72.4%0.262.335.22.5%-0.08其他中字头央企大飞机机器人-5.1%--5.1%-8.0%-9.2%-3.6%--4.7%--5.9%0.786.7%10.9665.8%67.9%0.082.80.4%46.40.5%0.9%-0.011.513.6%28.035.0%35.0%47.8%0.10全球主要股指表现：纳斯达克指数、英国富时100涨幅居前指数本周涨跌幅近1月涨跌幅近3月涨跌幅PE(TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位标普500道琼斯工业指数纳斯达克指数上证指数创业板指英国富时100德国DAX日经225