此为英文文档Approaching climate and disasters in an age of uncertainty case studies and insights for the High-level Experts and Leaders Panel on Water and

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

CasestudiesandinsightsfortheHigh-levelExpertsandLeadersPanelonWaterandDisasters(HELP)

Publishedin2023bytheUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization,

7,placedeFontenoy,75352Paris07SP,France

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Authors

AlexMauroner,AllianceforGlobalWaterAdaptation(AGWA)

PanEiEiPhyoe,AGWA

IngridTimboe,AGWA

JohnMatthews,AGWA

AnilMishra,UNESCO

KoenVerbist,UNESCO

InternalReviewer

RitaMarteleira,UNESCO

ExternalReviewer

HarmDuel,Deltares

ContentContributors

MijailArias-Hidalgo,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

MukandS.Babel,AsianInstituteofTechnology

UpeakshikaBandara,RegionalIntegratedMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystems(RIMES),AsianInstituteofTechnology

DivasBasnyat,NepalDevelopmentResearchInstitute(NDRI)

FlorianBoer,DeUrbanisten

ChipiliChikamba,MillenniumProjectCompletionAgency

AdJeuken,Deltares

LuisDominguez-Granda,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)SantiagoGómez-Dueñas,CivilandEnvironmentalEngineeringDepartment(DECA),UniversitatPolitècnicadeCatalunya,BarcelonaTech

JoseLuisGutierrez,GIZ,IntegratedRuralDevelopmentatBasinScaleProgramme(PROCUENCA)

RachelKoh,SingaporeUniversityofTechnologyandDesign

RitaMarteleira,UNESCOIntergovernmentalHydrologicalProgrammeGuillermoMendoza,U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,InstituteforWaterResourcesDidrikMeijer,Deltares

ReinaldoPeñailillo,Deltares

HeydiRoa,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

CarlosRodriguez,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

CarlosSaavedra,GIZ,IntegratedRuralDevelopmentatBasinScaleProgramme(PROCUENCA)

DanielSanchez,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

IreneSeemann,RebelGroup

MojtabaShafiei,EastWaterandEnvironmentalResearchInstitute(EWERI)DibeshShrestha,NepalDevelopmentResearchInstitute(NDRI)JacquelineSócola,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

NicoleStuber,GIZ,IntegratedRuralDevelopmentatBasinScaleProgramme(PROCUENCA)

MarcTkach,MillenniumChallengeCorporation

JulioTorres,EscuelaSuperiorPolitécnicadelLitoral(ESPOL)

KoenVerbist,UNESCOIntergovernmentalHydrologicalProgramme

ShuchiVora,GlobalResiliencePartnership

Acknowledgements

PaulinaRamírezQuevedo,UNESCO;BarbaraKavuma,UNESCO;HongHuynh,UNESCO;NataliaTolochko,UNESCO;PatrycjaBreskvar,UNESCO

Coverphoto:Sangoiri/

S

Designandlayout:AnnaMortreux

PrintedbyUNESCO

PrintedinFrance

SC-2023/HYD/PI/2

SHORTSUMMARY

Bottom-upapproachesforresilientwatermanagement

inthefaceofhydroclimaticrisks

MemberStatesfacethe“nosizefitsall”challengewhenimplementingadaptationmeasuresanddefiningactionstofaceclimatechangeimpactsandwater-relateddisasters.Inthiscontext,bottom-upapproachespresentagoodalternativeforresilientwatermanagement

inthefaceofclimaticuncertainty.Thispublicationfollowsthewebinarseries

Morethan

2840participants

from142countries

benefitedfromthewebinar

seriesonnewclimate-

resilientwatermanagement

approaches

“Adaptationinanageofuncertainty:toolsforclimate-resilientwater

managementapproaches”,co-organizedbyUNESCO-IHP,AGWA

andICIWaRMin2020and2021,whichreachedmorethan2840

participantsfrom142countriesandaimedatintroducingand

promotingthebenefitsofbottom-upapproaches,targeting

local-levelwatermanagementprofessionalsandindividuals

workinginclimateandwaterpolicyandplanning.

Thispublicationaimstobridgethegapbetweenclimateand

disasters,inthefaceoftheuncertaintiesthatclimatechangeposes

towatermanagersandpolicymakers.Composedofacompilation

ofworldwidecasestudies,itprovidesexamplesofinnovativewater

managementandclimateriskassessmentapproaches.Thepublication

alsohighlightstheNationalDeterminedContributions(NDCs)andNational

AdaptationPlans(NAPs)withtheaimofidentifyinglinksbetweenthese

high-levelframeworks,DRRandwaterissues,anddescribinghowthepolicy-practice

linkagescanbeturnedintoaction.

“Sincewarsbegininthemindsofmen

andwomenitisinthemindsofmenandwomen

thatthedefencesofpeacemustbeconstructed”

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

CasestudiesandinsightsfortheHigh-levelExpertsandLeadersPanelonWaterandDisasters(HELP)

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

5

TableofContents

ListofAbbreviations/Acronyms6

Foreword7

Introduction8

DisasterandClimatePolicies:AlignmentThroughWater10

IntroductiontoGlobalDisasterandClimatePolicyFrameworks10

ConnectingNationalResponseOptionsforDisastersandClimate10

Devising,Measuring,andReportingAcrossFrameworks11

WhoisInvolvedinNationalDRRandClimatePolicies?13

CreatingPolicy“Win-Wins”:WaterastheGreatConnector13

Policy-PracticeLinkages:TurningCommitmentsintoAction14

EmergingBestPracticesforAddressingClimateUncertaintyinWaterManagement15

CaseStudies:Bottom-upApproachesforDisasterRiskManagementandClimateChangeAdaptationinAction18

TowardsClimate-ResilientUrbanWaterSupplyinBangkok,Thailand19

ImplementingNature-BasedSolutionsinUdonThani,ThailandtoAdapttoClimateChange

andRapidUrbanization23

UsingNature-BasedSolutionsforFloodResilienceinGuayaquil,Ecuador25

DevelopinganIndicator-basedSustainabilityAssessmentFrameworkforRiverBasinManagementinIran27

Co-producingKnowledgeonDroughtResilienceforIndia’sDevnadiRiverBasin30

ComprehensiveResilienceBuildingintheChimanimaniandChipingeDistrictsinZimbabwe32

ClimateChangeAdaptationforMunicipalWaterSupplyinColombo,SriLanka35

DesigningaClimate-ResilientHydropowerSectorinNepal39

ResilientWaterandEnergySupplyforZambia’sCapitalintheFaceofDrought42

ClimateRiskAssessmentinBolivia’sGuadalquivirandAzeroRiverBasins:ABottom-upGIZapproach45

IncorporatingClimateChangeintoColombia’sHydropowerPlanning48

MovingForward:RecommendationsfortheHELP50

References52

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

6

ListofAbbreviations/Acronyms

ABCDCentre

AGWA

AHP

BPDP

CAF

CCA

CDKN

CRA

CRM

CRIDA

DAAD

DGIS

DRM

DRR

DTF

EEDS

EWERI

FC

GCAP

GCF

GCM

GDP

GIZ

HELP

GlobalWaterandClimateAdaptationCentre:

Aachen–Bangkok–Chennai–Dresden

AllianceforGlobalWaterAdaptation

AnalyticalHierarchyProcess

BangladeshPowerDevelopmentBoardCorporacionAndinadeFomentoDevelopmentBankofLatinAmerica

ClimateChangeAdaptation

ClimateandDevelopmentKnowledgeNetwork

ClimateRiskAssessment

ClimateRiskManagement

ClimateRiskInformedDecisionAnalysis

GermanAcademicExchangeServiceDirectorate-GeneralforInternationalCooperation,

Netherlands

DisasterRiskManagement

DisasterRiskReduction

DecisionTreeFramework

Eco-EngineeringDecisionScaling

EastWaterandEnvironmentalResearchInstitute

FebresCordero

GlobalClimateAdaptationPartnership(UK)LimitedGreenClimateFund

GlobalCirculationModel

GrossDomesticProduct

DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationale

Zusammenarbeit

High-levelExpertsandLeadersPanelonWater

andDisasters

ICIWaRM

IHP

IPCC

IWRM

LAC

M&E

MWA

NAPs

NBS

NDCs

NDRI

NWSDB

RCM

RDM

PAC

RIMES

SA

SDGs

SFM

UNESCO

UNFCCC

USACE

USAID

WASH

WEAP

WTP

InternationalCenterforIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement

IntergovernmentalHydrologicalProgrammeofUNESCOIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIntegratedWaterResourceManagement

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

Monitoring&Evaluation

MetropolitanWaterworksAuthority

NationalAdaptationPlans

Nature-BasedSolutions

NationallyDeterminedContributions

NepalDevelopmentResearchInstitute

NationalWaterSupplyandDrainageBoard

RegionalClimateModel

RobustDecisionMaking

PracticalActionConsulting,Nepal

RegionalIntegratedMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystems

SustainabilityAssessment

SustainableDevelopmentGoals

SendaiFrameworkMonitor

UnitedNationsEducational,Scientific,andCulturalOrganization

UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers

UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentWater,Sanitation,andHygiene

WaterEvaluationAndPlanning

WaterTreatmentPlant

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

7

Foreword

Overthepastyears,climatesciencebecameincreasinglyclearonthelinksbetween

climatechangeimpactsandnaturaldisasters,particularlywater-relateddisasters.Asperthe6thIPCCAssessmentReport(August2021),“climatechangeisintensifyingthewatercycle”,bringingunprecedentedflooding,andincreasedmagnitudeofdroughts,amongotherwater-relatedhazards,whichwillbemorefrequentandintenseaffectingalreadyvulnerableareasworldwide.

Climateriskassessmentisnowadaysinthespotlightduetothefreneticclimatevariabilitiesandchangesmanyareasintheworldhave

beenfacing.Fordecades,forecastingsciencehasfocusedonpredictingthetimeandplaceofhazardousevents,butclimatevariabilityanditsassociateduncertaintyhaveposedachallengetothereliabilityofsuchpredictions.Thereisincreasingpressurefordecision-makerstomaketimelyandrobustchoicestoprotectcommunitiesandecosystems.Transposingactionsfromhigh-levelframeworks,suchastheParisAgreementortheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction,intolocalactionischallenging,particularlyindevelopingcountrieswheretheallocationofscarceresourcesneedscarefulconsideration.

MemberStatesfacethe“nosizefitsall”challengewhenimplementingadaptationmeasuresanddefiningactionstofaceclimatechangeimpactsandwater-relateddisasters.Inthiscontext,bottom-upapproachespresentagoodalternativeforresilientwatermanagementinthefaceofclimaticuncertainty.Suchapproachesdifferfromthedominantparadigmguidingwatermanagementforthepasthalf-century,namelytheassumptionthatthepastcanbeusedtopredictandplanforfuturechallenges.Moreover,working

fromthebottom-upallowsfordefiningrobustadaptationmeasures,tailoredtothecommunitiesneedsandadjustedtotheirhumanandeconomicresources.TheClimateRiskInformedDecisionAnalysis(CRIDA)tool,featuredinthispublication,isabottom-upapproachdevelopedbyUNESCO-IHPanditspartnerswhichhasbeenincreasinglyimplementedbydecision-makers,notablyinLatinAmericaandAfrica.

UNESCO’sIntergovernmentalHydrologicalProgramme(IHP)recognizesthegreatchallengesMemberStatesfaceconcerningwatermanagement.Sincethe1970’sUNESCO-IHPhassupportedtheadvanceinthescientificknowledgeofwaterissueswhilealsoprovidingaplatformfortheMemberStatestoenhancecapacitiesandsupportpolicydevelopment.Enteringitsninthphase,devotedtopromoting‘ScienceforaWaterSecureWorldinaChangingEnvironment’(IHP-IX2022-2029),UNESCO-IHPplaceswater-relatedextremesaspartofthemainglobalwaterchallenges.Improvescientific

knowledge,methodologiesandtoolsinaddressingwater-relateddisastersfortimelyforecastingareamongtheobjectivesofIHPforthisnewperiod.TheseactionsarealignedwithUNESCO’sDraftProgrammeandBudgetfor2022-2025(

41C/5

),particularlythosedefinedunderMajorProgrammeII:Focusin2021-2025,Outcome3:“Enhance

knowledgeforclimateaction,biodiversity,waterandoceanmanagementanddisasterriskreduction”.

Thispublicationfollowsthesuccessfulseriesofsevenwebinarsentitled“Adaptationinanageofuncertainty:toolsforclimate-resilientwatermanagementapproaches”,co-organizedbyUNESCO-IHP,AllianceforGlobalWaterAdaptation(AGWA)andtheInternationalCenterforIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(ICIWaRM)in2020and2021,whichreachedmorethan2840participantsfrom142countriesandaimedatintroducingandpromotingthebenefitsofbottom-upapproaches,targetinglocal-level

watermanagementprofessionalsandindividuals

workinginclimateandwaterpolicyandplanning.

“ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAge

ofUncertainty”aimstobeasourcetoreimagine

andreaddresswatermanagementandclimate

riskassessmentthroughlocallydefinedpolicies

andcreateabindingbetweenthesetwosubjects.

Throughthevariouscasestudiescompiled,

examplescanbefoundofnewwaystoaddress

theproblematicofhydro-climaticchallenges

andtheproofthatachangeofparadigmis

possiblebyprovidingaseriesofgoodpractices

developedworldwide.Thispublicationisalso

aninvitationtoquestionthecurrentparadigm

inwatermanagementandclimateriskassessment

andtoconsidernewmethodologiestobeapplied

totheincessantdutyofachievingwatersecurity

andclimate-proofstrategies.Thepublication

hasalsolookedintoNationalDetermined

Contributions(NDCs)andNationalAdaptation

Plans(NAPs)withtheaimofidentifyinglinks

betweenthesehigh-levelframeworks,DRR

andwaterissues,anddescribinghowthepolicy-

practicelinkageshavebeenturnedintoaction.

UNESCO-IHPthanksallcontributorstothisspecial

publication,notablyAGWAfortakingthelead

initsdevelopmentandtheauthorsthathave

collaboratedwiththeirexperiencesandexpertise.

AwordofappreciationgoestotheFlanders

Fund-in-TrustforthesupportofUNESCO’sactivities

inthefieldofscience(FUST)andespecially

forsupportingthispublicationandother

resilience-buildingactivitiesthroughtheproject

“Climate-resilientwatermanagementapproaches:

ApplicationtowardsClimateActionand2030

DevelopmentAgenda”(2020-2021).

AbouAmani

DirectoroftheDivisionofWaterSciences,

UNESCO

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

8

Introduction

Tomostvictimsofanextremetropicalcyclonesuchasasuper-typhoon,amulti-centurydrought,oramillennialfloodevent,thelinksbetweenclimatechangeandthewatercyclemayseemacademicanddry,irrelevanttotheirpersonalgriefandloss.

However,climatescienceliteratureisquiteextensiveabouttheseconnections,andtheimplicationsdeservecleartranslationintothelanguageofdisasterpreparation,management,andresponseprogramsglobally.Howdowegetreadyforextremeeventsbeyondourexperience,whosetimingandmagnitudearedifficulttopredictoverpublicpolicytimescales?Ifsciencetellsustherearelimitstoourknowledge,howdowedesignmeasurestoreachtangibledisasterresponseandrecoverysystemstoprotectourcommunities,ecosystems,andeconomies?Dowefacenewrisksbyfailingtoimaginewhatmayyetemergethiscentury?

Climatechangeincreasesvariabilityinthewatercycle,inducingextremeweatherevents,reducingthepredictabilityofwateravailability,affectingwaterquality,allwhilethreateningsustainabledevelopment,biodiversity,culturalandrecreationaluses,andtheoverallenjoymentofthehumanrightstowaterandsanitationworldwide.Wearelikelyevenseeingtheemergenceofnewtypesofextremeevents.

Whilewaterisattheheartofmanyofthemanifestationsofclimatechange,sotoocanitbecentraltoeffortstoadapt—representinganentrypointforsustainabledevelopment,disasterriskreductionandpreparedness,andclimateresilience.Wateristhehazard,butwaterresilienceisthesolution.

Theinternationalcommunityhascometogethertocreatepathwaystowardsaddressingthesechallenges,resultinginpolicyagreementsandframeworkssuchastheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction,andtheParisAgreement.

ElizavetaGalitckaia/S

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

9

Notcoincidentally,allthreeofthese

centralframeworksandagendaswere

eithercreatedorcameintoforcearound

thesametimeperiodin2015.Now,seven

yearslater,thepersistentissueishowto

turncommitments—sometimesabstract,

sometimesquitespecific—intotangibleactionsandmeaningfulresultsatthenationallevelallthewaydowntothecommunityscale.

Ascountriesbegintheprocessofidentifying,resourcing,andimplementingprojectsforsustainabledevelopment,disasterriskreduction(DRR),orclimateresilience,toolsandmethodologiesforprojectplanning,design,andoperationaldecisionmakingtakeonevenmoresignificance.

UNESCOisundertakingthisflagshippublicationaspartofitslongstandinginvolvementinwatermanagementandscienceoverthepast70years.Forthelastfiveyearsinparticular,UNESCOhas

beenactiveindevelopingandpromotingtheuseofwhatareknownasbottom-upapproachestoaddressclimaterisksandotheruncertaintiesinwatermanagement—aneffortsimultaneouslyundertakenbyagrowingsetofpartnersrangingfromstateandnationalgovernmentstoresourcemanagementagenciesandmultilateraldevelopmentbanks.

WorkingwithUncertaintyinWaterDecisionMaking

Thesebottom-upapproachesdiffer

fromthedominantparadigmguiding

watermanagementforthepasthalf-

century—namelytheassumptionthatwecanusethepasttoconfidentlypredict(andplan

for)thefuture.Contrastingly,top-downapproachesrelyupontheaccuracyofclimatepredictionsfromglobalcirculationmodels(GCMs)asthebasisfordecisionmaking.Thetoolsandmodelsusedinlarge-scaleforecastingcanbringintheirownelementsofuncertainty,presentingdecisionmakerswithawiderangeofpossiblefuturesthatcouldbeusedintheiranalysis.Thescaleofanalysispresentschallengestoo,asforecastingtoolsaregenerallydesignedtopresentdataatlargergeographicscales,withcoarserresolutionsandthereforegreateruncertaintyattheregionalandlocalscalesatwhichmanyadaptationandwatermanagementdecisionsaremade.Furtherstill,thereisgreatsubjectivityinchoosingwhichsetoffuturehydroclimaticconditionstoplan,design,orinvestin(Mendozaetal.,2018).

Asclimatechangeandotherdriversleadtoincreasingvariabilityanduncertaintyforplannersanddecisionmakers,bottom-upapproacheshavebeendevelopedtoconfronttheseuncertaintiesbyfocusingonstakeholder-definedmeasuresofsuccessasastartingpoint.

Emphasisisplacedupongainingamorecompleteunderstandingofalocation’svulnerabilitiesandlearningunderwhatconditionsthewaterresources“system”nolongerfunctions.Examplesofbottom-upapproachesincludeClimateRiskInformedDecisionAnalysis(CRIDA),publishedbyUNESCOandthe InternationalCenterforIntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(ICIWaRM),theWorldBank’sDecisionTreeFramework,DecisionScaling,andAdaptationPathways(anapproachemergingfromtheNetherlands),amongothers.

SupportingtheHELP:

TakingActiontoAddressWater

andDisasters

Thepurposeofthispublicationistoprovide

evidenceandrecommendationstothe

High-levelExpertsandLeadersPanelon

WaterandDisasters(HELP)ontheuseof

aspecificsetofclimate-resilientwater

managementtoolsandapproachesasmeans

ofimprovingnationalclimateanddisasterrisk

management(DRM)strategiesandaddressing

theimpactsofwater-relatedhazardson

vulnerablecommunities.

Thispublicationwillprovideabetter

overallunderstandingofwherebottom-up

approachesfitintothewiderpolicycontext

intwosteps.First,theguidancewillexamine

thebroaderrelationshipbetweennational

disasterpoliciesandclimateadaptation

frameworks.Second,acompilationofglobal

casestudieswillshowcasetheapplicability

oftheseapproachesinarangeofwater

managementcontexts,demonstrating

thewaysinwhichtechnicaltoolscan

supportdecisionmakersandpolicymakers

inachievingtheirpolicycommitments.

Casestudieswerefeaturedinalong-standing

webinarseriesentitledClimate-ResilientWater

ManagementApproaches:AdaptationinanAge

ofUncertainty,ledbyUNESCO,theAlliance

forGlobalWaterAdaptation(AGWA),andthe

InternationalCenterforIntegratedWater

ResourcesManagement(ICIWaRM)whichtook

placein2020-2021.Thisreportwillbuildupon

theeffortsofthewebinarseries,bridging

elementsofnationalpolicymakingwith

on-the-groundexamplesofpracticalsolutions

toclimate-anddisaster-relatedchallenges.

ApproachingClimateandDisastersinanAgeofUncertainty

10

DisasterandClimatePolicies:AlignmentThroughWater

IntroductiontoGlobalDisasterandClimatePolicyFrameworks

Overtheprevioustwodecades,thenumberofreportednaturalandbiologicaldisastershasskyrocketed.The2022GlobalAssessmentReportonDisasterRiskReductionreportedthatthenumberofdisastersreportedannuallybetween2001and2020rosetobetween350-500,comparedtoanaverageof100annuallybetween1970and2000.Theseincludedgeophysicalhazardssuchasearthquakes,tsunamis,volcanoes,climate-andweather-relatedevents,andbiologicalhazards,includingagriculturalpestsandepidemics.Ifcurrenttrendscontinue,theoccurrenceofdisastersworldwidecouldriseby40%between2015and2030from400to560annually

(

UNDRR

,2022)

.

In2015,UNMemberStatesadoptedtheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015-2030toreduceandpreventdisasters,lossoflives,livelihoods,economiclosses,andinfrastructuredamage.OthersignificantinternationalframeworkssuchastheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)ParisAgreement,andthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment(SDG2030)alsoaddressDRRasanintegralpartofsustainabledevelopment,highlightingthecomplexrelationshipsbetweenclimatechange,humandevelopment,andDRR.

BuildingresiliencetoshocksandstressorsliesattheheartoftheParisAgreement,SendaiFramework,andSDGs.Yet,inpracticetheseframeworks’processesandactivitiesareoperationalizedindependentlyandlackpolicycoherence

(

UNDRR

,2021a)

.Neweffortstoimplementinstitutionalreform