轻工纺服-23H1总结：服饰稳步向上家居已过低点出口将陆续改善

证券研究报告行业动态报告服饰稳步向上，家居已过低点，出口将陆续改善分析师：叶乐yeleuangyangluhangshuyieizhongtai布日期：2023年9月4日本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国(仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾)提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投(国际)证券有限公司在香港提供。2QH居板块估值，推荐业绩兑现能力强的标的，优选定制；2)家居出口：23Q2多数家居出口链企业呈现收22Q4开始普遍承压，23H1压力延续，预计Q3起出口逐渐改善。5)黄金珠宝及美护：金价上涨+疫情后度环比提升。3数增长，较23Q1(整体同比下滑)显著改善，零售收入在前期订单兑现催化下表现更优；大宗业务分化，与绩有望逐季改善。核心一二线城市需求端政策松动，有望促进房地产需求进一步释放，家居相关标的短家居出口：部分品类去库进度领先，美元升值增厚业绩。22年以来，受前期海外库存高位叠加通胀高企影响，下游去库存冲击我国家居出口链表现，整体而言，具备可选消费、非标属性的品类较早进入去库阶段、去库节奏较快(通常影响3-5个季度)，23Q2多数家居用品出口链企业呈现收入环比改善趋势。利润端：受益于美元升值、原材料成本下行，出口企业毛利率、净利率有所回升，汇率变动对费用端的综合影响取决于公司对汇率的判断和锁汇比例的控制。展望未来，随着主动去库进入尾声、美出口需求有望企稳回升。H大宗纸盈利能Q展和消费旺季即将来临，纸价企稳提升，叠加成本端改善的滞后性反映，预计纸企盈利修复PB较高配置性价比。4率达到29.7%，提升幅度超预期。②李宁23H1营收同增13%，其中跑步流水同增33%，在三大核心系列放量带HH加快渠道下沉。②比音勒芬23H1公司营收16.84亿元/+28.2%，净利率提升。H1收购奢侈品牌CERRUTI1881和K&C，多品牌发展启航。③海澜之家23H1公司营收12.0亿元/+17.7%，主品牌营收86.5亿元/+16.7%，直营购物中心店占比持续提升。纺服制造：纺服制造板块自22Q4开始普遍承压，23H1压力延续。外销方面，22Q4开始海外品牌客户普遍进入库存去化阶段，23H1外销订单仍持续疲软，板块内以海外客户为主公司营收及业绩均有所承Q医美下目录CONTENTS第一章家居：23Q2营收温和增长、业绩表现更优，预计23H2逐季向好第三章造纸：板块整体承压、业绩底部确认，预计23H2逐步修复第五章纺服制造：H1受海外品牌去库存等影响需求承压，Q3有望环比改善医美疫后业绩反弹6040902071205100308010611040902072020-12051003080104090207120510040902071205100308010611040902072020-1205100308010409020712051003080106110409020712051003080111040902071205100308010611040902071205100310030801061104090207120510030801061104090200000000零售额:家具类:当月值零售额:家具类:当月同比000000家居卖场:累计值家居卖场:累计值数据来源：国家统计局，Wind，中信建投23Q2营收呈现温和同比增长，环比修复明显7端，叠加消费力弱修复态势下，整体家居零售订单转化时间周期略有拉长(如定制+软体一体化下)，图表：主要家居公司营收及业绩变化情况单位(亿元)2023Q22023Q1板块代码公司yoy归母净利润yoyyoy归母净利润yoy6603833.SH欧派家居61762.7313.0%9.8028.1%35.70-13.8%1.52-39.8%002002572.SZ索菲亚229.395.6%3.9532.9%18.05-9.7%1.04-8.9%定制家居603801.SH志邦家居314.9517.1%1.2820.0%8.066.2%0.520.5%6603180.SH金牌厨柜459.328.0%0.44-29.9%5.751.1%0.338.2%6603208.SH江山欧派19.1917.9%0.8336.3%6.8239.0%0.595.6%6603816.SH顾家家居35449.2410.0%5.2316.9%39.54-12.9%4.00-9.7%软体家居603008.SH喜临门223.376.2%1.61-3.1%14.674.5%0.6214.3%0001323.SZ慕思股份14.42-4.3%2.5438.0%9.57-23.1%1.01-18.4%0001322.SZ箭牌家居523.246.7%1.68-20.8%11.10-1.7%0.03-88.1%智能品类603848.SH好太太64.4216.7%1.0274.7%2.7613.3%0.486.6%0002790.SZ瑞尔特5.7817.0%0.7457.0%3.96-2.8%0.408.7%跨境电商301376.SZ致欧科技713.76-0.4%0.9967.2%12.67-11.2%0.8769.9%数据来源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止0901 23Q123Q223Q1yoy2323Q123Q223Q1yoy23Q2yoy金材料材料:铜材材料:铝材 93.418,049.215,566.1 21.498.934.5 .9%28.84.10-89.1%3.1%•23Q2大部分家居公司毛利率和净利率均实升，主要得益于原材料成本下行以及于原材料成本逐步下降(如软体的MDI、值)，家居图表：主要家居公司盈利能力变化情况图表：部分家居品类指标变化情况单单位(亿元)2023Q22023Q1板块代码公司毛利率比(PCT)净利率同比(PCT)毛利率同比(PCT)净利率比(PCT)603833.SH欧派家居59634.3%0.315.6%26.7%-1.04.2%-1.9002572.SZ索菲亚17435.7%3.313.9%2.833.3%5.8%0.1定制家居603801.SH志邦家居10836.8%-0.28.5%0.236.9%6.4%-0.4603180.SH金牌厨柜4327.8%-0.54.6%-2.529.1%-0.85.5%0.4603208.SH江山欧派6624.9%-6.28.9%21.7%-3.28.2%-2.8603816.SH顾家家居34231.0%2.910.6%0.232.1%2.310.2%0.1软体家居603008.SH喜临门8037.0%3.47.0%-0.932.4%-1.94.3%-0.1001323.SZ慕思股份14852.2%317.6%548.4%3.410.6%0.6001322.SZ箭牌家居15329.0%-5.37.2%-2.530.4%-5.50.2%-2.1智能品类603848.SH好太太6651.4%6.823.0%7.745.7%2.417.5%-1.1002790.SZ瑞尔特5129.7%4.112.6%3.325.2%0.39.9%跨境电商301376.SZ致欧科技10436.0%4.47.2%2.936.8%46.9%3.3数据来源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止2023年08月31日9较23Q1(整体同比下滑)显著改善，主要系：1)零售渠道在订单兑现下逐步恢复；2)大宗业务分家居公司战略和客户结构调整有关。其扩品类和开店的志邦家居收入增速最优。较23Q1(整体同比下滑)显著改善，主要系：1)零售渠道在订单兑现下逐步恢复；2)大宗业务分家居公司战略和客户结构调整有关。其扩品类和开店的志邦家居收入增速最优。Q控费提效作用下，各家利润率差异主要与渠道结构相关，其中大宗)低毛利率的大宗业务占比下降，2)原材料下降+降本增效。图表：主要定制家居公司营收增速拆分(分品类)各品类23Q2营收(亿元)62.7334.5419.873.6913.1%19.2%2.2%14.6%25.7%.5%2.3%图表：主要定制家居公司23Q2单季度营收同比增速拆分(分渠道)•图表：主要定制家居公司23Q2单季度营收同比增速拆分(分渠道)Q营收9yoy23Q2扣非归母净利润yoy6.0%44.5%8.1%23Q2营收拆分(分渠道)023Q2营收增速(分渠道).34%16%29.16%98%%23Q2各渠道贡献营收增量35%.61%.95%10%6.66%.04%.91%1%23Q2渠道营收占比3.1%9.8%28.5%数据来源：Wind，中信建投 数据来源：Wind，中信建投数据来源：Wind，中信建投到23Q1和22Q4趋势逐步向好，预计23H1外销营收40%30%0%0%-20%-30%顾家家居内外贸营收增速营收增速内贸营收增速外贸营收增速22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2房地产销售、投资、土地数据当月同比(%)7654322022-122022-112022-10987652022-04-49.0住宅-51.8-52.870个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数-0.170个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:一线城市70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:二线城市70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:三线城市-1.5销售均价(元/平米)9,864房屋新开工面积-45.0房地产开发投资-18.8房地产竣工面积-17.0房地产竣工面积：住宅-14.8交建面-26.9土地成交总价：一线城市-75.4土地成交总价：二线城市27.9土地成交总价：三线城市-68.6资数据累计同比增速房地产销售、新开工及投资数据累计同022-12022-11022-102022-04-20.9-25.4-29.5面积投资-26.32.7面积住宅-11.9-11.4数据来源：国家统计局，wind，中信建投0.0%、同比-31.8%(较上月回升5.6个百分点)33城新房月度成交面积(万平米)一线城市(4城)新房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220230001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月二线城市(12城)新房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月三线城市(17城)新房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月 注：33个城市中，一线城市(4)：北京、上海、广州、深圳，二线城市(12)：济南、青岛、杭州、苏州、南京、武汉、南宁、福州、成都、宁波、 000000016城二手房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月二线城市(8城)二手房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月000一线城市(2城)二手房月度成交面积(万平米)2018201920202021202220233月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月三线城市(6城)二手房月度成交面积(万平米)201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月数据来源：Wind，中信建投 注：一线城市(2)：北京、深圳，二线城市(8)：大连、杭州、青岛、厦门、苏州、南宁、成都、南京，三线城市(6)：衢州、江门、宿 •地产政策利好持续释放(优化首付比、存量房贷利率下降等)，有望提振居民消费信心，带动家居板块工面积累计同比增长20%，竣工改善传导至家居零售消费若干月时间，叠加去年下半年基数走低，HQQ大宗订单同比在双位数增长；3)外游客户去库基本结束，23Q1订单开始转正，预计传导至下半年海外收入有望恢复正增长。 (亿元)PE(中信建投)业绩预测(中信建投)2Q22Q4Q222Q232Q22Q4Q222Q233E4E5E3E4E5E61725.6%13.2%18213.5%9.6%11311.2%4.1%4517.2%2.4%713.5%-16.4%7.1%4.8%2.8%-13.8%13.0%25.6%13.2%4.0%-9.7%5.6%13.5%9.6%2.3%6.2%17.1%11.2%4.1%-13.3%1.1%8.0%17.2%2.4%14.5%39.0%17.9%3.5%-16.4%7.1%4.8%2.8%-13.8%13.0%4.0%-9.7%5.6%2.3%6.2%17.1%-13.3%1.1%8.0%14.5%39.0%17.9%6.3.SZ0%-12.9%0%-12.9%10.0%.8%-24.9%-23.1%.8%-24.9%-23.1%12.4%18.5%10.3%-23.1%4.5%6.2%12.4%18.5%10.3%-23.1%4.5%6.2%.SZ智能001322.SZ箭牌家居1550.0%-3.2%-14.0%-18.5%-1.7%6.7%0.0%-3.2%-14.0%-18.5%-1.7%6.7%品类002790.SZ瑞尔特5322.5%4.8%-4.1%2.6%-2.8%17.0%22.5%4.8%-4.1%2.6%-2.8%17.0%301376.SZ致欧科技1070.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-11.2%-0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-11.2%-0.4%3.914.835.81数据来源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止2023年9月1日志邦志邦家居23Q2营运情况：衣柜木门业务体量持续增长，全渠道业务协同发力。23H1衣柜保持双位数以上稳健增长，整装渠道保持高增态势(营收占比约10%)。年，Z7计划(厨衣木成品融合)有望带动客单值提升，整装渠道加共同驱动公司增长。公司发布限制性股票激励计划，强化核营收(百万元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体2,452.82,977.93,840.452.888.83.9,224.58,204.2按品类拆分①整体厨柜②整体衣柜及配套品③定制木门1,928.22,117.12,498.62,934.22,736.62,981.33,264.23,521.1430.0734.4.82,102.72,504.4958.03,427.17.827.643.4169.8227.9370.2458.9549.5按渠道拆分①经销1,704.432,229.82,829.62,899.83,530.44,117.8,726.9店均提货额(万元/家，按照平均门店计算)76.575.4100.083.3289.073.9346.866.472.775.7其中整装：②大宗390.8639.5.5333020.02,158.1③直营156.7182.2231.9322.4396.6468.4535.9604.9营收占比201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E按品类拆分①整体厨柜78.6%71.1%65.1%56.9%50.8%47.5%45.2%42.9%②整体衣柜及配套品17.5%24.7%29.7%34.2%39.0%39.9%40.9%41.8%③定制木门0.3%0.9%1.1%3.3%4.2%5.9%6.4%6.7%按渠道拆分①经销69.5%65.5%58.1%54.9%53.8%56.3%57.0%57.6%整装15.9%21.5%30.6%32.0%%30.8%29.5%28.0%26.3%②大宗③直营6.4%6.1%6.0%6.3%7.4%7.5%7.4%7.4%营收增速201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体21.4%29.0%34.2%4.6%16.4%15.2%13.6%按品类拆分①整体厨柜9.8%18.0%17.4%-6.7%8.9%9.5%7.9%②整体衣柜及配套品70.8%55.3%54.2%19.5%③定制木门254.7%57.0%291.6%34.2%62.5%24.0%19.7%按渠道拆分①经销14.4%14.4%26.9%2.5%21.7%16.6%14.8%店均提货额增速-1.4%10.4%-11.2%-20.3%9.5%4.2%平均门店增速16.0%14.9%15.5%30.2%9.1%6.2%②大宗63.6%83.7%40.6%0.4%12.1%9.2%6.8%③直营16.2%27.3%39.0%23.0%18.1%14.4%12.9%数据来源：Wind，中信建投欧派家居23欧派家居23Q2运营情况：得益于公司降本控费下费用率下行以及毛利率略有提升。23Q2零售、大宗渠道均提速增长，整装大家居持续推进(23H1增长20%+、营收木门及卫浴快速增长。提升客单值；2)量层面：渠道红利将尽，公司积局家装渠道，家装高增带动市占率提升。营业收入(百万元)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整体厨柜1,2591,9452,1902,1341,3241,9442,1821,7231,0851,987②整体衣柜及配套品1,6762,3733,2863,0552,3202,8983,4893,4321,9763,454整体衣柜1,3521,7532,6312,4351,8622,1512,6572,7401,4762,794配套品3246196566205007068321,000535752③定制木门165292381399218322397410207369④卫浴165247281296167242314312184276营收占比(按照产品类别)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整体厨柜38.2%39.7%36.3%35.3%31.9%35.0%34.6%26.6%30.4%31.7%②整体衣柜及配套品50.8%48.4%54.4%50.6%56.0%52.2%55.3%53.0%55.4%55.1%整体衣柜41.0%35.8%43.6%40.3%44.9%38.8%42.1%42.3%41.3%44.5%配套品9.8%12.6%10.9%10.3%12.1%12.7%13.2%15.4%15.0%12.0%③定制木门5.0%6.0%6.3%6.6%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.3%5.8%5.9%④卫浴5.0%5.0%4.7%4.9%4.0%4.4%5.0%4.8%5.2%4.4%营收增速(按照产品类别)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整体厨柜96.2%25.9%12.7%10.5%5.1%-0.1%-0.4%-19.3%-18.0%2.2%②整体衣柜及配套品173.0%46.5%43.8%26.4%38.4%22.1%6.2%12.3%-14.8%19.2%整体衣柜173.5%27.6%35.4%24.2%37.7%22.7%1.0%12.5%-20.7%29.9%配套品171.0%152.0%91.6%35.9%54.4%14.0%26.9%61.3%7.1%6.5%③定制木门155.3%71.7%51.7%39.8%32.3%10.2%4.2%2.6%-4.9%14.5%④卫浴96.1%45.3%13.6%24.5%1.2%-1.9%11.5%5.4%10.5%14.1%营收增速拆分21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2整体营收3.2%①直营②经销(含整装大家居)201.6%51.4%30.3%33.8%51.1%25.9%13.9%10.5%-27.5%36.5%174.1%39.3%28.8%21.2%34.1%19.9%5.4%1.2%-14.5%9.2%③大宗89.7%30.5%33.1%21.9%-7.0%-19.5%1.6%2.3%-13.0%29.2%体3,3004,9016,0406,0404,1445,5496,3096,4773,5706,273直营8111417122112314419524489196经销(含整装大家居)2,4033,8224,8754,5803,2234,5845,1414,6352,7565,003其中：整装大家居235460500700400642738794447826经销门店7,1437,2577,4617,4757,3987,7607,6857,6157,5837,532店均提货额(万元/家)33.753.266.962.843.360.267.861.436.666.77238651,0461,0386736961,0631,063585899营收占比21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2直营2.5%2.3%2.8%3.7%3.0%2.6%3.1%3.8%2.5%3.1%销72.8%78.0%80.7%75.8%77.8%82.6%81.5%71.6%77.2%79.8%其中整装大家居7.1%9.4%8.3%11.6%9.7%11.6%11.7%12.3%12.5%13.2%21.9%17.6%17.3%17.2%16.2%12.5%16.8%16.4%16.4%14.3%数据来源：Wind，中信建投顾家顾家家居23Q2运营情况：业务订单逐步向好，预计增速若剔除玺堡业务剥离影响，预计Q2外销收入同比持平。H功能沙发、床垫以及定制三大高潜品类仍是增长主要驱落、海外工厂效率提升叠加内销收入占比提升，公司利润率有所提升。核心逻辑：展望23年下半年，一体两翼内贸新战略、强化家装渠道合作驱动内贸未来增长；伴随着外贸业务复苏以及公司加强降本增效，有望带动外贸利润率提升。盈利预测：预计2023-2025年营+13.5%，预计归母净利润为2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E营业收入(亿元)66.791.7110.9126.7183.4180.1207.7236.8268.8①内销40.452.161.076.5107.1103.0132.2153.4176.6物理店口径下：门店3,5004,2224,8305,1905,2475,601-3,8614,5265,0105,2195,424店均提货额(万元/家)134.9134.7152.7205.3190.0其中：大店+综合店1,0281,9902,073店占比门店---7,2498,5639,423-----7,9068,993店均提货额(万元/家)259.6211.2②外销22.335.046.146.569.270.375.52023E83.42024E92.22025E营收占比201720182019202020212022①内销60.6%56.8%55.0%60.4%58.4%57.2%63.7%64.8%65.7%②外销33.5%38.2%41.5%36.7%37.7%39.1%36.3%2023E35.2%2024E34.3%2025E营收增速拆分整体营收2017201837.6%201920.9%20204.2%202144.8%2022-1.8%5.3%4.0%3.5%①内销29.1%7.0%25.5%40.0%-3.8%28.3%6.0%5.1%平均物理店增长7.2%0.7%4.2%3.9%店均提货额增长-0.2%3.3%34.5%-7.5%②外销②外销毛利率56.7%31.7%0%48.7%7%7.3%2023E0.5%2024E0.6%2025E201737.3%201836.4%201934.9%202035.2%202128.9%202230.8%30.67%30.60%30.52%①内销42.4%42.9%39.9%40.1%34.5%37.3%②外销24.0%23.6%24.8%24.2%8.1%20.8%毛利占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①内销2%②外销21.6%24.8%29.6%25.3%23.7%26.3%数据来源：Wind，中信建投平均门店索菲亚定制家具司米厨柜索菲亚木门华鹤米兰纳进平均门店索菲亚定制家具司米厨柜索菲亚木门华鹤米兰纳率亮眼，主要得益于原材料成本压力缓解叠加SKU优化成效显现，23Q2毛利率、净利率为增长85.2%。分品牌，23H1下沉品牌米兰纳快速增长、索菲亚主品牌客单价稳步提升；23Q2零售渠道逐步恢复、整装渠道延续高增。核心逻辑：展望2023年，索菲亚品牌整家定制模式推动客单价持续提升、米兰纳品牌下沉蓝海市场，整装渠道继续拓展，同时原材料下降有望驱动盈利弹性释放。营营业收入(亿元)营收201761.61201873.11201976.86202083.532021104.072022112.232023E120.672024E136.522025E152.61①直营2.202.332.632.503.422.772.632.712.79②经销(含整装)55.7864.1264.1165.3283.6092.2589.34100.07111.26经销门店2,4553,7103,7364,4094,8634,1003,9004,2504,600平均门店店均提货额(万元/家)3,083208.013,723172.194,073160.394,636180.344,482205.844,000223.344,075245.574,425251.43其中整装0.745.2911.3816.6323.0029.25③大宗2.815.819.3515.0416.0415.2513.7313.7313.73营收占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①直营②经销3.6%905%3.2%877%3.4%834%3.0%78.2%3.3%80.3%2.5%82.2%2.2%74.0%2.0%73.3%1.8%72.9%其中整装0.9%5.1%10.1%13.8%16.8%19.2%③大宗4.6%7.9%12.2%18.0%15.4%13.6%11.4%10.1%9.0%门店(家)2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E经销2,4553,7103,7364,4094,8634,1003,9004,2504,6002,200-95160-3,0833,7234,0734,6364,4824,0004,0754,4252,6002,5012,7192,7302,8292,750,8002,8508228451,1081,122614128227339534160163243265319---212338营收增速拆分2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体营收①①直营②经销(含整装)其中整装门店增长店均提货额增长③大宗18.7%6.0%14.9%106.9%5.1%12.7%0.0%20.8%-17.2%61.0%8.7%-4.8%1.9%9.4%-6.9%60.8%24.6%36.7%28.0%613.2%13.8%12.4%6.7%7.8%-19.1%10.3%115.1%-3.3%14.1%-4.9%7.5%-5.0%-3.2%46.2%-10.7%8.5%-10.0%13.1%3.0%12.0%38.3%1.9%10.0%0.0%11.8% 3.0%11.2%27.2% 8.6% 2.4%0.0%数据来源：Wind，中信建投①经销渠道②大宗渠道理商①经销渠道②大宗渠道理商江山欧派23Q2运营情况：23Q2营收稳健增长17.9%、归母净利润同增36.33%，主要得益于费用Q、33.3%，主要系工程结构持续优化，保交楼贡献订单增量，且经销渠道毛利率稳步回升中。核心逻辑：展望2023年，保交楼订单有望逐步推进；预计公司将维持100家/年代理商拓展节奏、经销商扩张保持800家/月，代理商和经销渠道有望继续高增。毛利率Q1有所承压，全年有望改善。2022025E2023E2024E201920172018202020212022营业收入(亿元)10.1012.8320.2730.1231.5732.0940.8449.3156.75①经销渠道2.192.476.938.7610.6813.3516.02②大宗渠道16.8426.0722.1821.8128.4934.1238.71工程22.0916.3111.9115.4917.0318.40代理商2.875.049.0912.0716.0119.08营收占比营收占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①经销渠道7.3%27.1%28.2%②大宗渠道%68.2%.1%%32.4%%8.3%9.6%%33.6%营收增速拆分2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E27.1%.6%4.8%%.6%26.4% -1.7%-27.0%80.5%27.3%20.7%15.1%21.9%25.0%20.0%306%198%135%30.0%10.0%8.0%32.8%32.7%19.2%毛利率2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体32.7%32.2%32.2%29.1%23.9%23.8%划分①经销商24.2%21.8%21.8%24.0%②大宗渠道33.6%32.3%23.5%22.7%工程渠道35.2%35.2%28.6%26.0%代理渠道25.7%25.3%16.8%18.5%数据来源：Wind，中信建投20营收(亿元)营业收入(亿元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E44.5223.9611.724.314.1958.1360.6170.0380.9827.28营收(亿元)营业收入(亿元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E44.5223.9611.724.314.1958.1360.6170.0380.9827.2828.8832.8737.4317.1018.1920.7123.58513.864.826.039.699.6911.6213.95.81.19.93.6222.51.64.12.88.282.96.02其他(沙发、按摩椅)店均提货额(万元/家201820192020202120222025E2023E2024E营收增速拆分201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E49.1%53.5%49.3%45.0%46.5%49.7%49.7%49.6%42.7%46.4%45.9%41.6%45.7%46.5%46.5%46.5%74.9%78.3%75.9%73.9%74.7%78.0%78.0%78.0%59.5%51.8%32.6%27.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%69.0%69.0%61.6%58.9%57.3%62.0%62.0%62.0%201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E3,4034,7555,50014110897145100%8.3%9.7%25.2%.2%44.4%44.6%29.6%%8.7%9.7%%9.8%5.1%0.0%%42.3%38.1%慕思股份23Q2运营情况：公司23Q2营收同比-4.33%，主要受终端需求疲软以及终止直供欧派苏斯品牌业务影响，剔除欧派影响预计同比双位数增长；23Q2归母净利润+38.0%，得益于低毛利直供业务下降、原材料价格同比下降以及精减低效产品带来的毛利率显著提升。公司3月发布床垫世纪梦新产品，套系化销售占比持续提升(预计达30%)；渠道端V6大家居提速，23H1电商渠道增长26.7%。核心逻辑：展望2023年下半年，渠道变革成效有望逐步显现，上千家门店重装升级；公司套餐销售力度持续推广，有望进一步提升客单值。。201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E.88 .2123.990.81.318.6244.5264.844.502.982927.0330.5144.4738.9109.0275.88.866.607.814.36.068.187.98201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E亿元V6家居直营10.1%12.5%7.7%6.9%5.1%4.3%亿元V6家居%%%%%%%%其他(沙发、按摩椅)%%直供2.5%4.3%8.7%10.2%13.4%1.9%1.9%1.9% 电商10.4%11.3%13.6%12.6%13.7%16.5%17.1%17.7%营收增速拆分201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体21.2%15.3%45.6%-10.3%4.3%15.5%15.6%直营50.5%-28.8%30.8%-33.9%-11.8%10.0%10.0%经销12.7%12.9%45.8%-12.5%19.0%14.8%14.5%其他(沙发、 按摩椅)%%其他(沙发、 按摩椅)%%%%6.4% 5.8%6.4%%%%%%%%%直供103.3%135.2%70.9%18.3%-85.0%15.0%15.0%.......315%391%351%-2.......201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E毛利率49.1%53.5%49.3%45.0%46.5%49.7%49.7%49.6%门店(家门店(家)按摩椅)21要受公司全渠道全线产品促销影响带来的均价下行，23Q2毛利率29.0%/-5.3pct、净利率7.2%/-pctH亿元/+13.84%，数量同比+37.15%，促销叠加轻智能产品占比提售渠道承压明显。核心逻辑：展望23H2，预计拓宽轻智能产品价格带助力零售渠道恢复，降本控费+促销策略优化有望带来利润率环比改善。长期来看，国产品牌有望借力智能马桶等新品类，凭借价格优势以及设计提升来实现市场份额提升。20192020202120222022E2023E2024E20192020202120222022E2023E2024E6.58 6.58 5.028.854.357.206 5.13 0 3 8.73 7.233.850.10 0.108 0.12 9.740.14 2.570.15 2023E2021%2023E2021%%%%%%2021%%%%%2022E2024E20202019202220192020202120222022E2023E2024E28.8%-10.3%15.2%14.1%28.8%-10.3%15.2%14.1%13.0%-10.7% 10.9%32.1% -22.7%-10.3%15.2%14.1%-6.0%17.7%16.8%-4.4%23.5%21.3%-1.5%30.5%27.4%-8.0%12.8%10.4%-8.1%20.7%15.2%-7.7%30.0%20.0%-12.6%18.0%15.0%-18.0%10.0%8.0%-26.2%10.0%15.0%13.0%16.1%19.8%25.4%10.3%14.5%20.0%10.0%5.0%15.0% 10.2%0.0%20.0%40.0%15.0%5.0%40.0% 10.2%0.0%20.0%40.0%15.0%5.0%40.0%5.5%0.0%18.0%25.0%10.0%5.0%30.0%7.5%0.0%18.0%30.0%10.0%5.0%35.0%5.4%2020%%%%%2019%%%%%20222022E20222022E2023E2024E32.6%30.1%30.4%30.8%30.5%30.7%31.2%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%%28.0%28.0%28.0%40.8%37.0%37.0%37.0%数据来源：Wind，中信建投22-20.0%50%20%10%增-20.0%50%20%10%2024E62022E23.522020201920222023E28.1920212024E62022E23.522020201920222023E28.1920210yoyyoyyoyyoy占比yo0yoyyoyyoyyoy占比yoy占比yoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoy.892.927222.9525.8%.89.7790.0%5310.0%3636快增长，其中自主品牌智能马桶高增，预计23H1营收智能马桶代工0.030%5%5%45.4%0.030%5%5%45.4%54.6%350.002.404333.9%66.1%.00.065170.4%2.0688.3%29.6%902827.2%72.8%5056线下渠道(包括工程)线下渠道(包括工程)坐便器产品收入占比提升，0.621.973.554.9680%40%0.621.973.554.9680%40%7.5% 202223.6%23.6%2023E29.9%.2%2022E27.8%28.9%2.399220202.062024E.4%.6%2.19年，看好智能坐便器渗透率提升下自主品牌加速放量，代工业务有望稳定增长。.4% 2021.4% 2021毛利率(%)201924.4%毛利率(%)201924.4%25.8%25.8%数据来源：Wind，中信建投店均提货额增长6%20%5%0%0%25%5%0%12%22%8%0%34%0%7%店均提货额增长6%20%5%0%0%25%5%0%12%22%8%0%34%0%7%35%12%36%63%-26%②自主品牌工程39%0%9%-2%③代加工4%19%8%喜临门23Q2营运情况：23Q2营增长(其中线上渠道20%+增速、线下持平)、代工业务20%+增核心逻辑：预计公司有望受益于促进家居消费政策期、期待终端需求逐步回暖以及降本增效推进下带来盈利能力提升。投资建议：预计公司2023-2025年21.4%、17.5%。201948.7124.3018.32201948.7124.3018.323,0002,69468.04.965.0018.20202056.2331.3624.123,6433,32272.66.734.3017.802023E86.6857.1153.005,6535,46397.013.734.9421.28202177.7251.7439.564,4954,06997.210.984.7021.282024E100.3467.9863.505,853108.516.745.3321.28202278.3952.0036.135,2734,93197.714.783.5023.00营业收入(亿元)①自主品牌零售6,0536,4531营业收入(亿元)①自主品牌零售6,0536,453经销门店平均门店店均提货额(万元/家)经销门店平均门店店均提货额(万元/家)②自主品牌工程③代加工20.09②自主品牌工程③代加工21.28营营收占比2025E2023E2024E2019202020212022①自主品牌零售线下占比线上占比②自主品牌工程③代加工49.9%①自主品牌零售线下占比线上占比②自主品牌工程③代加工49.9%37.6%10.2%10.3%37.4%55.8%42.9%12.0% 7.6%31.7%66.3%46.1%18.9% 4.5%29.3%65.9%61.1%15.8% 5.7%24.5%67.8%63.3%16.7% 5.3%21.2%69.2%63.7%17.8% 5.0%18.8%50.9%14.1%6.0%27.4%营收增速20192020202120222023E2024E2025E整体①自主品牌零售16%20%25%15%29%32%38%65%64%%%-9%11%10%11%16%19%19%13%15%13%平均门店增长23.32%22.50%21.18%11%7%7%门门店(家)2025E2023E2024E2019202020212022整体3,0003,6434,4955,2735,6536,0536,453喜临门专卖店2,5483,1403,8994,7025,1025,5025,902喜临门主品牌2,1682,3402,8373,2803,4803,6803,880喜眠3808001,0621,4221,6221,8222,022MD专卖店(含夏图)4525035965715515515512025E202217%21%2025E202217%21%16%34%-4%2024E7%8%6%12%0%2023E7%9%6%14%-4%202021%23%8%111%11%201926%26%7%202123%24%21%33%18%整体喜临门专卖店 23整体喜临门专卖店 23喜临门主品牌喜眠MD专喜临门主品牌喜眠MD专卖店(含夏图)23%0% 24yoyyoyyoy-16.4%13.9%21.2%19.2%-16.0%8.9%16.2%18.3%yoyyoyyoy-16.4%13.9%21