FAO：食品价格趋势月度报告（2023年第6期）

ISSN2707-1952

CONTENTS

INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES 2

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS 3

WESTAFRICA 6

SOUTHERNAFRICA 8

EASTAFRICA 10

FAR

EASTASIA 12

EASTERNEUROPE,CAUCASUSANDCENTRALASIA 14

CENTRALAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN

16

SOUTHAMERICA

17

Pricewarninglevel:HighModerate[BasedonGIEWSanalysis]

Warningsareonlyincludediflatestavailablepricedataisnotolderthantwomonths.

Source:GIEWS,modifiedtocomplywithUNmap,2023.

BULLETIN

FoodPriceMonitoringandAnalysis

#6

12July2023

MONTHLYREPORTONFOODPRICETRENDS

KEYMESSAGES

刁InternationalpricesofallmajorcerealsdeclinedinJune2023.Seasonalsuppliesputdownwardpressureonbothwheatandmaizeprices,withwheatharvestsstartingintheNorthernHemisphereandmaizeharvestscontinuingintheSouthernHemisphere.Worldricepricesalsodeclined,amidsubdueddemandfornon-IndicariceandeffortsbyPakistantoattractexportsales.

刁InmostcountriesmonitoredbyFAO,domesticpricesofbasicfoodsinJune2023remainedabovetheiryear-earlierlevels.HighpricesofcoarsegrainspersistedinEastandWestAfrica,whileseasonalpressurecontributedtodeclinesinmaizepricesinSouthernAfricaandSouthAmerica.InEasternEurope,CaucasusandCentralAsiacountriesandEastAsia,amplecarryoverstocksandnewsuppliesfromongoingharvestsareexertingdownwardpressureonwheatandwheatflourprices.Meanwhile,inEastAsia,domesticricepricesweregenerallystableacrossthesubregionbutincreasedinmajorexportingcountries.Conflictandinsecurity,adverseweather,highpricesofagriculturalinputs,elevateddistributioncostsaswellascurrencyweaknessescontinuetobethemajordrivers.

Domesticpricewarnings

Argentina|Wheatflour

Ghana|Coarsegrains

Myanmar|Rice

Nicaragua|Redbeans

Pakistan|Wheatflour

SouthSudan|StaplefoodsSudan|Staplefoods

Zimbabwe|Fooditems

GIEWS-GlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture

INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES

InternationalcerealpriceseasefurtherinJune

InternationalwheatexportpricescontinuedtoeaseinJuneasharvestsstartedinNorthernHemispherecountries.AmplesuppliesintheRussianFederationduetolargecarryoverstocksontopofnewharvestsupplies,alongwithafallintheexporttax,underpinnedan8.7percentfallintheRussianFederation(milling,12.5%)exportprices.ThecompetitiveRussianFederationpricesalsoputdownwardpressureonquotationsfromitsmaincompetitors,includingtheEuropeanUnion(France,grade1)andKazakhstan(milling,d.a.p.Saryagashstation)quotations,whichdeclinedby2.6percentand4.9percent,respectively.ThebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,HardRedWinter)declinedby5.2ercentmonth‑on‑month,asconditionsimprovedslightlyandharvestprogressaccelerated.

IncreasedseasonalsuppliesinArgentinaandBrazilcontinuedtoputdownwardpressureoninternationalmaizeexportprices.TheArgentina(UpRiver,f.o.b.)andBrazil(Paranagua,feed)quotationsfellby6.5percentand3.2percent,respectively,inJuneasongoingharvestsboostedsupplies,especiallyinBrazil,whereproductionisexpectedto

reacharecord.ThebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,Yellow,f.o.b.)maizepriceremainedstablemonth‑on‑month,onconcernsoverdroughtconditions.

TheFAOAllRicePriceIndexaveraged126.2pointsinJune2023,down1.2percentfromMay,butstill13.9percentaboveitsyear‑earlierlevel.PricesofdifferentricetypesshoweddifferenttrendsinJune.Exportquotationsofaromatic,glutinousandjaponicaricefellduetogenerallylowdemand,whileexportpricesofIndicaricefollowedmixedtrends.Forinstance,effortstoattractfreshexportbusinessloweredIndicaquotationsinPakistan,whileslowtradingactivitykeptlonggrainpriceslargelysteadyintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Conversely,exportpricesincreasedinIndia,influencedbypublicdomesticprocurement,aslowstarttoKharifcropplantingsandreportsofadealbeingreachedtoexport1.0milliontonnesofIndianricetoIndonesia.AsianbuyinginterestalsounderpinnedThaiprices,whiletightsuppliesledtohigherquotationsof25%brokenriceinVietNam,despitegenerallylowdemandforexport.

Internationalwheatprices

230.00-13.2-19.9-44.9

f.o.b.,deep-seaports)

250

UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange

Jun-231M3M1Y

450

aFr,274.410.2-9.4-33.6

EuropeanUnion(France),Wheat(grade1)254.73-2.6-12.5-37.6

200

Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

Internationalmaizeprices

Argentina,Maize(Argentina,UpRiver,f.o.b.)237.05-6.7-20.7-20.7

260

240

it)ofAmerica(Gulf),Maize(US266.87-0.5-6.3-20.9

280Brazil(Paranagua),Maize(feed)234.27-3.3-19.4-27.0

UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange

Jun-231M3M1Y

220

Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

Internationalriceprices

UnitedStatesdollarpertonne

Thailand(Bangkok),Rice(Parboiled100%)

VietNam,Rice(25%broken)

India,Rice(25%broken)

UnitedStatesofAmerica,Rice(USNo.2,4%LongGrain)

LatestPriceJun-23

523.50

465.00

436.60

715.75

PercentChange

1M

0.4

1.6

5.0

-0.3

3M

7.5

9.8

8.3

-1.6

1Y

11.3

19.8

30.2

9.4

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

2GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS

Countrieswherepricesofoneormorebasicfoodcommodityareatabnormalhighlevelswhichcouldnegativelyimpactaccesstofood

Argentina|Wheatflour

GrowthRate(%)

to05/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-3.7

2.0

12months

-0.5

0.2

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Argentina,GreaterBuenosAires,Retail,Wheat(flour).

Pricesofwheatflourrosefurtherandsetnewrecordhighs

RetailpricesofwheatflourcontinuedtoriseinMaytolevelsmorethandoubletheiryear‑earliervalues,reflectinghigherpricesofwheatgrain,andcompoundedbyelevatedmillingandtransportcosts.Thiscontributedtoa13percentmonthlyincreaseintheretailpricesofbread.Ingeneral,pricesoffooditemscontinuedtorise,amiddifficultmacroeconomicconditionsandby6percentmonth‑on‑monthinMay2023,withtheannualfoodinflationrateregistering118percentatthenationallevel.Tocontainpriceincreases,thePreciosJustosProgramme,relaunchedinNovember2022,wasextendedtoend‑July2023,fixingthepricesof2000basiccommoditiesinsupermarkets,includingstaplefooditems.InMay,theProgrammewasrevisedtoallowfora3.8percentmonth‑on‑monthincreaseinprices.

Ghana|Coarsegrains

GrowthRate(%)

to06/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-3.2

3.8

12months

-2.1

0.5

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Ghana,Accra,Wholesale,Maize.

PricesofcoarsegrainsfollowedmixedtrendsandremainedatveryhighlevelsinJune

Wholesalepricesoflocallyproducedmaizeandmilletwerestableordeclined,whilepricesoflocallyproducedsorghumshowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesofmilletwereupto70percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofbothmaizeandsorghumwereupto90percentabovetheirhighyear‑earlierlevels.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlyunderpinnedbythedepreciationoftheGhanaiancedi,whichwasequivalenttoGHS11.19/USD1inJune2023comparedtoGHS7.19/USD1inJune2022,aswellaselevatedinternationalcommoditypricesandtransportcosts.

Myanmar|Rice

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to06/23

7.3

Sameperiodaverage

2.2

12months

5.7

0.1

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Myanmar,Yangon,Wholesale,Rice(Emata,Manawthukha-FQ).

DomesticpricesofriceincreasedfurtherinJuneandwereatnewrecordhighs

Domesticpricesof“Emata”rice,awidelyconsumedvariety,registereda17thconsecutivemonthofincreaseinJune,reachingnewrecordhighs,reflectingtightavailability,duetobelow‑average2022output,exacerbatedbyhighagriculturalinputsandtransportcosts.InearlyMay,CycloneMochahitthenorthwesternpartsofthecountry,causinglossestostandingcropsandhouseholds’foodreserves,andsupportedpricesintheseareas.Junepriceswerealmosttriplethealreadyelevatedlevelsofayearearlier.Domesticpricesofgroundnutsandotherpulses,importantsourcesofproteininthelocaldiet,havealsoincreasedsinceearly2022and,inJune2023,werebetween30and80percenthigheryear‑on‑year,andatrecordornear‑recordlevels.Similarly,pricesofawiderangeofimportedbasicfooditems,includingwheatflour,cookingoils,meatanddairyproducts,wereatrecordornear‑recordlevelsinJune2023.Theelevatedpriceswereunderpinnedbyreducedavailabilityinlocalmarketsfollowingbelow‑averagelevelsofimportssince2022,constrainedbythecountry’sgenerallylowimportcapacitylinkedtothesignificantdepreciationofthekyat(MMK).

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

12July2023GIEWSFPMABulletin3

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d

Nicaragua|Redbeans

GrowthRate(%)

to06/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

3.8

5.7

12months

2.0

0.3

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Nicaragua,Managua(oriental),Wholesale,Beans(red).

PricesofredbeansincreasedinJunetolevels40percenthigheryear‑on‑year

WholesalepricesofredbeansroseinJuneforthethirdconsecutivemonth,underpinnedbystrongexportdemand,withthequantityofbeansexportedduringthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear13percenthigheryear‑on‑year.Despitethehigheryear‑on‑yearbeanproductionin2022,officiallyestimatedtohaveincreasedby2percent,pricesinJunewere40percentabovetheiryear‑earlierlevels,reflectingelevatedproductionandtransportcosts.ThiscontributedtohighbeanpricesinCostaRica,ElSalvadorandHonduras,themajorimportersofbeanfromNicaragua,wherewholesalepriceswereatleast25percentupfromayearearlier.

Pakistan|Wheatflour

GrowthRate(%)

to06/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-3.4

0.3

12months

1.3

0.2

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Pakistan,Karachi,Retail,Wheat(flour).

PricesofwheatflourdeclinedinJunebutremainatveryhighlevels

Pricesofwheatflour,akeystaplefood,declinedinJuneinmostmarketsofthecountry,reflectingimprovedmarketavailabilitiesfromtherecentlyharvested2023crop,officiallyestimatedatanabove‑averagelevel.However,pricesremainatveryhighlevels,rangingfrom50toalmost90percenthigheryear‑on‑year,mostlyreflectinginflationarypressureandelevatedagriculturalinputandtransportcosts.

SouthSudan|Staplefoods

GrowthRate(%)

to06/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

3.8

3.2

12months

7.2

0.4

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:SouthSudan,Juba,Retail,Sorghum(Feterita).

PricesofmaizeandsorghumincreasinginJuneatfasterratesthaninMay,reachingexceptionallyhighlevels,mainlyduetoinsufficientsuppliesandseveremacroeconomicdifficulties

Inthecapital,Juba,pricesofmaizeandsorghumcontinuedtoincreaseinJuneby13and11percent,respectively,asseasonaltrendswerecompoundedbyafurther,significantdepreciationofthenationalcurrencyvis‑à‑vistheUnitedStatesdollarontheparallelmarketinMay,fromSSP915/USD1inearlyMaytoSSP1000/USD1inlateMay.Pricesofcassava,importedwheatandgroundnuts,otherimportantstaplesinthelocaldiet,alsoincreasedatfasterratesinJuneby4–22percent.NominalfoodpricesinJunewereatexceptionallyhighlevels,withthoseofmaizeandsorghummorethantwicetheiralreadyhighyear‑earliervaluesandmorethan100timesthoseinJuly2015,beforethecurrencycollapse.Underlyingthehighfoodpricesareinsufficientsuppliesandthecontinuouslydifficultmacroeconomicsituationduetolowforeigncurrencyreservesandtheweaknationalcurrency.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

4GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d

Sudan|Staplefoods

GrowthRate(%)

to05/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

0.6

3.0

12months

0.1

-0.4

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Sudan,Al-Fashir,Retail,Sorghum.

Zimbabwe|Fooditems

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to04/23

19.7

Sameperiodaverage

3.3

12months

8.5

1.6

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Zimbabwe,Mutare,Sakubva,Retail,Maize(white).

Pricesoffoodsurgingpasttheiralreadyhighlevelsduetotheongoingconflict

FoodpricesarereportedtohavesurgedinAprilandMayinseveralmarketsduetotradeandmarketdisruptionscausedbytheconflictthatstartedon13April2023.Forexample,pricesofsorghumincreasedby16and18percentinMayinElObeidandKadugli,respectively,amajorassemblymarketandamarketlocatedinaneasternsurplusproducingareas,whilepricesofmilletincreasedby20percentinAlFashirmarket,locatedintheGreaterDarfurarea,whereitisthemaincerealstaple.Thesesurgesoccurredagainstabackdropofalreadyhighcostsoffood,and,asaresultpricesinMayareupto54percentabovetheiralreadyelevatedvaluesofayearearlierdespitethefavourableoutcomeofthe2022croppingseason.AccordingtotheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP),thepriceofalocalfoodbasket,already28percenthigheronayearlybasisinMarch2023,isexpectedtoincreasebyafurther25percentintheleanseasonbetweenJuneandSeptember,iftheconflictcontinues.WFPhasprojectedthatthisincreaseinfoodprices,ifitmaterializes,willprevent18millionpeoplefrommeetingtheirbasicfoodneeds.Cerealpricesbegantofollowasustainedincreasingtrendinlate2017duetothedifficultmacroeconomicsituation,coupledwithhighpricesoffuelandagriculturalinputsinflatingproductionandtransportcosts.Heightenedpoliticalinstabilityandintercommunalclashesexertedfurtherupwardpressureonprices.

Zimbabwedollarlosessignificantvalue,drivingupinflation

Theannualfoodinflationrateincreasedto256percentinJune2023,morethandoubletheleveloftheprecedingmonth.Similarly,themonthlyfoodinflationratealsoincreasedrapidlyto104percentinJune,upfrom26percentinMay.Atthecommoditylevel,maizemealpricesrosesteeply,and,inHararepricesinJunewereabouteighttimeshigheronayearlybasis.Muchoftheincreaseintheprecedingmonthsisattributedtocurrencyinstabilityandweakness,amidbroadmoneyexpansionandhighcommoditypricesontheinternationalmarkets.Despiteseveralpolicymeasuresintroducedin2023tocurbpricerises,inflationhascontinuedtogrow,andthisishavingaseveredetrimentalimpactonhouseholds’purchasingpower,stressingfoodinsecurity.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

12July2023GIEWSFPMABulletin5

WESTAFRICA

Pricesofcoarsegrainsfollowedmixedtrendsandremainedhigheronayearly

basisinseveralcountries

PricesofcoarsegrainsshowedmixedtrendsinMayandJune2023incountriesoftheSahelandalongtheGulfofGuinea.Seasonaldepletionofhouseholdstocksandconsequentincreasedmarketrelianceunderpinnedpriceincreasesinsomecountries.Inseveralcountriesofthesubregion,pricesofcoarsegrainswerewellabovetheiryear‑earliervalues.

InMali,wholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumdecreasedinmostmarketsinJune,reflectingadropindemandthatispartiallyduetotheendofinstitutionalpurchasesandagoodsupplyofriceandmarketgardenproducefollowingtherecentoff‑seasonharvests.Pricesofcoarsegrainsweregenerallylowercomparedtotheirveryhighyear‑earlierlevels,reflectingtheincreaseinyear‑on‑yearcerealoutputsin2022.InBurkinaFaso,wholesalepricesofsorghumandmilletfollowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesdeclinedinsomemarkets,partlyduetothedeliveryofhumanitarianaidforinternallydisplacedpersonsaswellasthesaleofcerealsfromnationalfoodreservesatsubsidizedpricesthroughso‑calledboutiquestémoins,asocialprotectionmeasureadoptedbythegovernment,in2013,toimprovecerealaccessforthemostvulnerablepopulations.Inmarketswherepriceswererising,themostpronouncedincreasewasrecordedinthemarketofDori,whichcontinuedtobedisruptedbyinsecurityandwherethepricesofbothsorghumandmilletrosebyabout7percentmonth‑on‑month.Acrossthecountry,pricesofcoarsegrainswerelowerthantheirelevatedyear‑earlierlevels,reflectingthehigheryear‑on‑yearcerealoutputs.IntheNiger,wholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumremainedstableorincreasedseasonallyinJune.Pricesofcoarsegrainswerebelowtheiryear‑earlierlevels,reflectingthesharpcerealproductionupturnin2022.InChad,retailpricesofmilletfollowedmixedtrends,pricesofmaizeremainedstableordecreasedandpricesofsorghumwerestableorincreasedinMay.Despitetherecentoff‑seasonharvests,cerealpricesremainedelevated.Pricesofmilletwerebetween4and12percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofbothmaizeandsorghumweregenerallybetween5and26percentabovetheirhighlevelsayearearlier.Thehighcerealprices

aremostlyunderpinnedbylowsupply,hightransportcostsandstronglocaldemand.InSenegal,nationalaverageretailpricesofmaizeandsorghumremainedstable,whiletheaverageretailpriceofmilletdecreasedslightlyinMay.Theaveragepriceofmaizewasclosetoitselevatedyear‑earlierlevel,whileaveragepricesofsorghumandmilletwere15and25percent,respectively,higheryear‑on‑year.Thehighpricesweremostlysupportedbyhighproductionandtransportcostsaswellasgeneralinflationarypressure.

InGhana,wholesalepricesofmaizeandmilletwerestableordeclined,whilewholesalepricesofsorghumshowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesofmilletwereupto70percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervaluesandpricesofbothmaizeandsorghumwereupto90percentabovetheirhighyear‑earlierlevels.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlyduetopersistentinflationarypressuresfromthedepreciationoftheGhanaiancediandelevatedinternationalcommodityprices,andtransportcosts.InTogo,retailpricesofmaizeandsorghumwerestableorincreasedseasonallyinJune.Pricesofmaizeweregenerallyatorbelowtheiryear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofsorghumwerebetween3and13percenthigheryear‑on‑yearacrossthecountry,mostlyunderpinnedbylowsupplyduetohighfuelcosts.InBenin,retailpricesofmaizewerestable,whilepricesofsorghumexhibitedmixedtrendsinMay.Pricesofcoarsegrainswerenearorbelowtheiryear‑earliervalues.InNigeria,wholesalepricesoflocallyproducedmillet,sorghumandmaizeincreasedinmostmarketsinMayandwereupto31,36and43percent,respectively,higherthanayear‑earlier.WholesalepricesoflocallyproducedricegenerallyroseinMay,whilepricesofimportedricewerestableorincreased.Pricesofbothlocalandimportedricewerebetween30and46percenthigheryear‑on‑year.Theelevatedcerealpricesreflectmarketdisruptionsduetopoorsecurityconditionsaswellasincreasedproductionandtransportcosts.Inaddition,highfoodpricesweresupportedbyshortageofcashandthedepreciationofthenationalcurrency,inparticularontheparallelmarket.Foodinflationreachedanannualrateof24.8percentinMay2023.

WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghuminMali

CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kg

Bamako,Millet

Ségou,Millet

Mopti,Sorghum

Sikasso,Sorghum

LatestPriceJun-23

23000.00

19000.00

24000.00

21000.00

PercentChange1M3M1Y

-13.2-11.5-36.1

-24.0-26.9-36.7

-7.7-4.0-27.3

-6.7-19.2-47.5

50000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

6GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023

WESTAFRICAcont’d

WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumintheNiger

27000

CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kgLatestPricePercentChange

Jun-231M3M1Y

37000

29000Tillaberi,Millet300000.09.1-6.3

Niamey,Millet280001.83.7-6.7

25000Maradi,Sorghum225000.04.7-10.0

Zinder,Sorghum250008.74.2-13.8

Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

RetailpricesofmaizeandmilletinChad

CFAfranc(BEAC)perkg

N'Djamena,Millet

N'Djamena,Maize

Bol,Maize

Abeche,Millet

LatestPriceMay-23

318.50

327.00

255.00

275.00

PercentChange1M3M1Y

1.0-2.90.8

2.21.24.8

-1.9-1.9-20.1

-1.12.83.8

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23

Techiman,Sorghum657.12-10.2-13.050.9

200

300

400

500

WholesalepricesofmaizeandsorghuminGhana

Ghanaiancediper100kgLatestPricePercentChange

Jun-231M3M1Y

800

700Techiman,Maize515.38-2.64.361.9

Accra,Sorghum450.000.00.068.7

600