电池市场的分析与市场展望

电池市场的分析与市场展望

Battery

Market

Development

for

Consumer

Electronics,

Automotive,

and

Industrial:

Materials

Requirements

and

Trends

Christophe

PILLOT

Director,

AVICENNE

ENERGYPresentation

Outline•The

rechargeable

batterymarket

in

2013•The

Li-ion

batteryvalue

chain•Li-ion

batterymaterial

market•Forecasts

&

conclusionsMillion

HEV

powered

by

LIBNumber

of

EV

sold

worldwide

(

Million) ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025CIBF

2014June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaAVICENNEENERGY:RENOWNEDTOHAVEREALISTICFORECASTSHEVpoweredbyLithiumionbatteryforecastsfrom2008to2013EVsold,inmillionunits,worldwide,2010-2020012345201020152020Source

:

International

Battery

Conference,

Fort

Lauderdale

2007,

2008,

2009,

2010

&

2011AABC

June

2007200,20,40,60,811,21,41,61,822008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013IIT

2007IIT

2008IIT

2009IIT

2010AAB

(2012)ROLAND

BERGER

(2011)IIT

(MARCH

2010)ROLAND

BERGER

(2012)AVICENNE

2007-2012DEUTSCHE

BANK

(2012)IIT

(MARCH

2011)AABREALITYAVICENNE

2007Million

Units

/

yearMillion

Units/YearTons

of

cathode

/

Year$/WhChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China3THEBATTERYMARKETISREALLYDYNAMIC200015001000

500

02013Cellular

Phones

sold

per

Year

(Million)Li-ionNiMH

2000500400300200100

0

>200

M

Tablets

195

MPortable

PCs

2013Portable

PC

sold

per

Year

(Million)Li-ionNiMH

2000100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

2000Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY

Analyses

20132013Tons

of

Li-ion

Cathode

per

year0

32,5

21,5

10,520002013Li-ion

18650

cell

price

($/Wh)MWhChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China35

00030

00025

00020

00015

00010

000

5

000

019902000201020122013Others

(Flow

battery,NAS,

…)Li-ionNiMHNiCD4Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY,

2013THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-2013

LithiumIonBattery:Highestgrowth&majorpartofindustry

investments

50

000

45

000

40

000MWhMWhChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China150

000100

000

50

000

0200

000250

000450

000400

000350

000300

0001990

2000

2010

2012

2013Others

(Flow

battery,NAS,

…)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead

Acid150

000100

000

50

000

0200

000400

000350

000300

000250

0001990

2000

2010

2012

2013THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-2013LithiumIonBattery:Highestgrowth&majorpartoftheinvestmentsLeadacidbatteries:Byfarthemostimportantmarket(90%marketshare)5Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY,

2013Billion

US

$Billion

US$1990200020052010201220132015202019902000200520102012201320152020Christophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China908070605040302010

0Others

(Flowbattery,

NAS,

…)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead

AcidTHEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-202054BILLIONUS$in2013–Packlevel15%AVERAGEGROWTHPERYEAR(1990-2013)6908070605040302010

0OTHERSAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRIALE-BIKESPOWER

TOOLSPORTABLESLISource:

AVICENNE

ENERGY,

2013SLI:

Start

light

and

ignition

batteries

for

cars,

truck,

moto,

boat

etc…PORTABLE:concumer

electronics

(cellular,

portable

PCs,

tablests,

Camera,

…),

data

collection

&

handyterminals,POWER

Tools:

power

tools

but

also

gardeningtoolsINDUSTRIAL••MOTIVE:

Forklift

(95%),othersSTATIONARY:

Telecom,

UPS,

EnergyStorage

System,

Medical,

Others

(EmergencyLighting,

Security,

Railroad

Signaling,,

Diesel

Generator

Starting,

Control

&

Switchgear,AUTOMOTIVE:HEV,

P-HEV,

EVOTHERS:

Medical:

wheelchairs,

medical

carts,

medical

devices

(surgical

power

tools,

mobile

instrumentation

(x-ray,

ultrasound,

EKG/ECG,

large

oxygenconcentrators1-

Pack:

cell,

cell

assembly,

BMS,

connectors

–

Power

electronics

(DC

DC

converters,

invertors…)

not

included00 ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China

SLIAutomotive

Portable100004000030000200005000060000SLIAutomotivePortableOther

ApplicationsMarineMedical

devicesWheelchairMedical

CartOther

StationarySeismicESSOther

Stand-byUPSTelecomOther

MotiveForkliftPower

Tools7THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKETIN2013:US$54BILLIONBatterymarketin2013(M$)2

00012

00010

000

8

000

6

000

4

00014

00016

00018

000

E-Bikes

Lead

Acid

LIB1-

Pack

level:

Pack

includingcells,

cells

assembly,

BMS,

connectors

–

Power

electronics(DC

DC

converters,

invertors…)

not

includedSource:

AVICENNE

ENERGY,

2013Other

ApplicationsMarineMedical

devicesWheelchairMedical

CartOther

StationarySeismicESSOther

Stand-byUPSTelecomOther

MotiveForkliftPower

ToolsE-BikesM

WhM

Wh2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

ChinaLI-IONIN2013MAINAPPLICATIONS:CELLULAR,NOTEBOOK8Note:

(1)

2013:

Avicenne

Forecasts

(2)

Cell

levelCellular

PhonesPortable

PCsOthersTabletsDigital

CameraPower

ToolsVideo

GamesCamcordersMP3Household

devicesToysE-bikesAutoOthers5000Mcells–39000MWh12000M$(2)

Li-ion

Battery

sales,

MWh,

Worldwide,

2000-2013

(1)

40

000

35

000

30

000

25

000

20

000

15

000

10

000

5

000

-CAGR2003/2013+26%peryearinVolume+14%peryearinvalue

Li-ion

Battery

sales,

MWh,

Worldwide,

2000-2013

(1)

22

000

20

000

18

000

16

000

14

000

12

000

10

000

8

000

6

000

4

000

2

000

-M$M$2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

ChinaLI-IONIN2013MAINAPPLICATIONS:CELLULAR,NOTEBOOK9Note:

(1)

2013:

Avicenne

Forecasts

(2)

Cell

level5000Mcells–39000MWh12000M$(2)

Li-ion

Battery

sales,

M$,

Worldwide,

2000-2013

(1)

14

000

12

000

10

000

8

000

6

000

4

000

2

000

-Cellular

PhonesPortable

PCsOthersCAGR2003/2013+26%peryearinVolume+14%peryearinvalue

Li-ion

Battery

sales,

M$,

Worldwide,

2000-2013

(1)

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0AutomotivesTabletsPower

toolsCamcordersGamesDigital

cameraE-BikesMP3OthersM

cells

/month1Q

092Q

093Q094Q

091Q

102Q

103Q104Q

101Q

112Q

113Q114Q

11M

cells

/YearOver

supply

RatioChristophe

PILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China10BATTERYPRICEISDECREASINGDRASTICALLYIn10Years80%pricedecreasingdespiteafluctuatingCoprice50%40%30%20%10%0%3

0002

5002

0001

5001

000

500

-Standard

DemandProduction

CapacityTESLAOversupply

ratio0,00AverageLIBcellprice($/Wh)

1,00

0,80

0,60

0,40

0,202005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013CylindricalPrismaticLaminate300250200150100

50

0BAKATLLishenE-OneLGSDIMAXELLSONYPANASONICSANYOSource:

UMICORE,

march

2011

Productioncapacity2009/2011:

from150to250Mcells/month

Note-

Q4

2013:Cylindrical:

0,17

$/Wh

;

Laminates:

0,3$/Wh18650oversupplyratioisdecreasingthankstoTESLAc.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China

Christophe

PILLOT

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33

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0011LI-IONVALUECHAIN

CATHODE

90

OOO

T

in

2013

Revenues:

2,1

B$

CAGR

03/13:

+16%ANODE47

000

TRevenues:

0,75

B$CAGR

03/13:

+14%ELECTROLYTE

CELLMANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

12

B$

Gross

margin:

<10%

PACKMANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

17

B$

Gross

margin:

<10%35

000

TRevenues:

0,6

B$CAGR

03/13

:

20%SEPARATOR600

M

m²Revenues:

1

B$CAGR

03/13

:

18%BINDER6

700

TonsRevenues:

0,2

B$CAGR

03/13

:

15%ANCILLARYRevenues:

0,7

B$Tons20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe

PILLOT+

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78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Batterymarket

and

materials

trends2013-2025CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaNEW

ENTRANTS

ON

THE

FIELD:CATHODEACTIVEMATERIALSNEEDSBYCHEMISTRY-30

00020

00010

00050

00040

000LFPLMONCANMCLCOCathodeactivematerialsforLIBinTons,2000-2013

100

000

90

000

80

000

70

000

60

00012(…)LEADERS:

Nichia

13%Umicore

16%

B&M

7%Easpring

6%Others

4%

Other

China

14%

L&F

16%Shan

InternalShan

3%10%

Reshine

11%LCO–40KT(2013)NMC1–28KT(2013)

Nichia

12%

Umicore

24%Others

20%LMO–15KT(2013)LFP–7KT(2013)Nichia

8%OtherJapan

16%

Internal6%Nikki18%Qyanyun

15%OtherChina

37%Tatung

12%

Aleees

18%

Other

Japan

5%Clariant

Internal

5%

6%A123

10%Valence

6%

Formosa

8%Others

30%

Other

China

Reshine13%

5%

ShanShan

11%

L&F

11%

Internal

4%1-

Including

NCATons ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaCATHODEACTIVEMATERIALFORECASTS2000-202550000

01000003000002500002000001500002000

2005

2010

2013

2015

2020

2025LFPLMONCANMCLCOCathodeactivematerials2000-2025-Tons

400000

35000013

ASSUMPTIONS:Portable

devices:2010-2025:+10%

per

year

in

volumeHEV4,8

M

HEV/year

in

2020

-

35%

LIB6,8

M

HEV

in

2025

90%

LIBP-HEV0,4

M

P-HEV/yearin

2020,

0,7

M

in

2025100%LIBEV1M

EV/year

in

2020,1,5M/year

in

2025100%LIBIndustrial

&

stationary2013-2020:+16%

per

yearLCO42%NCA

5%LMO18%

NMC

27%Cathodeactivematerialsin2013:90000Tons

LFP

8%LCO31%NMC

30%LMO12%

NCA

5%Cathodeactivematerialsin2025:>300000Tons

LFP22%Tons20122006200720082009201020112013Christophe

PILLOT+

33

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46

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worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China14ANODEACTIVEMATERIALS47000TONSIN2013LIBAnodeMaterialsSource:

Sanyo,

March

20110,01,00,80,60,40,2Source:

A.

Jossen,

IRES

2007LIBAnodeMaterials

1,20500100015002000250040000300002000010000

0Source:

Hitachi

Chemical

LIBAnodemarket,(Tons)50000

LTOSi

or

Sn

TypeAmorphous

CarbonMeso-PhaseArtificial

GraphiteNatural

GraphiteHardCarbonSoftCarbonGraphiteCapacity(/g)400mAh/g250mAh/g325-375mAh/gCapacity(/cc)++0+Power+++0Stability+++0CyclabilitySource:Hitachi++Chemical+0PrecursorsPetroleumPitch,Resin,cellulose,wood,coconuts…PetroleumcokeNaturalorpetroleumcokeCOST2012->202030->25$/kg25->20$/kg15->10$/kgSUPPLIERSKUREHAHITACHIHITACHIBTR&manyothersChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

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78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China0%50%100%

SONYSANYO

ATL

Maxell

Lishen

BYD

LGC

SDIPANASONICARTIFICIALMCMBNATURALAmorphousMETAL15ANODEFORLIBIN2013Naturalgraphitebecomeacommodity

Others

A123

BAKMCMB

4%

Amorphous

4%

Si

or

Sn

Type

1%

LTO

1%

Carbon

for

LIB

anodesby

type

(2013)

Artificial

Graphite

26%

Natural

Graphite

64%Note:

MCMB:

Mesocarbon

Microbeads(…)NEW

ENTRANTS

ON

THE

FIELD:LEADERS:M$200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220134% ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaLIBSEPARATORMARKET2013LIBseparatormarket,M$,CAGR2003/2013:+17%LIBSeparatorsupplier,marketsharein201316Others:

TDK/Nitto

Denko,

Foshan

Jinhui

Hi-Tech,

ShenzhenSeniorTechnology

Material,

Xinxiang

Green

next

Energy,

Dupont,…200

06004001000

8001200EVONIK,

TEIJIN,HIFUTURE,

UBE-MAXELL,

TREOFAN,

POROUS

POWER,DREAMWEAVER,

GREEN,SENIOR,

JINHUI,

(…)NEW

ENTRANTS

ON

THE

FIELD:LEADERS:ASAHI

23%TONEN

20%SUMITOMO

5%

SK12%

ENTEK

4%3%

CELGARD

13%Foshan

JinhuiUBE

6%Green

Senior

4%Others

6%Tons20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe

PILLOT+

33

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46

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worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025CIBF

2014June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaELECTROLYTESUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS35000TONSIN201317010000

50002000015000350003000025000LIBelectrolytemarket,Tons,CAGR2003/2013:+24%

40000CellularPower

toolsPortable

PCE-bikesTabletsHEVPHEVEVOthersNote:

(1)

GTHR:

Zhangjiagang

Guotai-HuarongNEW

ENTRANTS

ON

THE

FIELD:LEADERS:

ZhangjiagangGuotai-HuangJINNIUUBE

6%Mitsubishi

Chem

15%In-house

10%Tomiyama

3%PANAX-ETEC14%GTHR16%Mitsui3%Jinniu

9%Cap

Chem

8%ShanShan

8%LIBelectrolytesupplier,marketsharein2013

Soulbrain8%GTHRMitsubishiPANAXETEC(2)TomiyamaMitsuiTons ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaLIBELECTROLYTEMARKET2013

In-House

Jinniu

Capchem

ShanshanSoulbrain

Ube1

000

Electrolytemakersales

2005-20136

0005

0004

0003

0002

000

-

200520062007200820092010201120122013(2)

Panax-Etec

bought

Samsung

Chiel

activities

in

2010

180500010000SonyElectrolyteBatterymakers&suppliersrelationin2013

Others

TOSHIBA

Yuasa

(BEC)

YUASA

(LEJ)

NEC

A123

BAK

ATL

Maxell

Lishen

BYD

LG

Chem

SDI

PanasonicTonsTomiyamaMitsuiShanShan

Mitsubishi

Chem

In-house

PANAX-ETEC

GTHR

Jinniu

Cap

Chem

Soulbrain(1)

Full

electrolyte

formulationin-house ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

ChinaTIMETOMARKETFORNEWMATERIALSINLIBINDUSTRY19c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China

Christophe

PILLOT

+

33

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0020CELLULARPHONESFORECASTS2010-20254

0003

0002

0001

000

-OTHERSINDIAASIACHINAJAPANEUROPEUSACellularphonesdemand(MUnits)CAGR2010-2025:+6%CellularPhonesmarketDriversEmergent

marketRenewal

ratio

increaseSmartphone

penetration

increaseLIBcellsforcellularphonestrends

Laminates

ratio

increase

Increase

of

Thickness

Increase

of

>1400

mAh

capacityLIBcellsdemand2010-2025Polymerpenetration:30%->75%

100%PolymerPrismatic

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY

AnalysesCyl.Pris.

1%Lam.16%

83%LIB

cell

format(Volume)

2013The

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materialstrends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20 Shenzhen,China ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicennePORTABLEPCSFORECASTS2010-2025200100

0EmergingMaturePortablePCsdemand(MUnits)2010-2025CAGR:+4%

400

300PortablePCsmarkettrends

Mature

market

stable

or

decreasing

Growth

driven

by

Emerging

marketUltrabook

is

increasing

(20(1)

to

60%

in2013(2))ASP

decreasing

(<499$

Portable

PCsincrease

from

25%

in

2010

to

33%

in

2012(1)

Samsung

&

AVICENNE

(2)

Intel

LIBcellsforportablePCstrends

Thinner

cellsPolymer

penetration

increasing

from7%

in

2010

to

28%

in

2025>

2800

mAh

for

Premium/corporate2.2

Ah

for

consumer,

emerging

market

21

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY

Analyses

Source:

IDC,

Gartner,

AVICENNE

EnergyLIBcellsdemand2010-2025Polymerpenetration:7%->28%

100%LaminatePrismaticCylindricalCyl.Pris.

1%Lam.16%

83%LIB

cell

format(Volume)

2013M

cells/yearMWh2000200520102013201520202025 ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China2025LIBFORECASTSFORPORTABLEELECTRONICDEVICES10000100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000OthersHouseholdToysMP3Video

GamesDigital

CameraCamcordersCordless

PhonesTabletsPortable

PCsCellular

Phones2000-2025LIBmarket,MWh,byapplication(3C)2000-2025LIBmarket,Mcells,byformfactor(3C)080007000600050004000300020001000200020052010201520202025

Li-P

Li-ion

Pr

Li-ion

Cyl

Takeshita

-

March

2013

(1)(1)

Source:

Takeshita,

Battery

Japan

2013

BJ-3

conference–

Slide

p

4

22

0Source:

AVICENNE

ENERGY

AnalysesMillion20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020HEV

penetration

(%

of

total

car

sales)Christophe

PILLOT+

33

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78

46

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worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China35%30%25%20%15%10%

5%

0%USAEUROPEJAPANOTHERSWORLDHEVFORECASTS2000-2025HEVMARKET:2,5Millionunitsin2015–5Min2020–7Min202523876543210200020052010201520202025USAEUROPEJAPANOTHERSMicro

hybrid

not

includedBackgroundMobileAutomotiveAircraftc.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China

Christophe

PILLOT

+

33

1

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78

46

0024

SAFETYISSUESLi-ionandLMParenotthermallystablewhatraisesserioussafetyconcerns

In

the

80’s,lithium

metal

batteries

were

put

into

the

markets

(Moli

Energy).

Their

further

development

has

for

a

long

time

been

slow

because

of

a

low

cycle

efficiency

and

safety

issues:

High

chemical

reactivity

and

a

low

melting

point

enable

strong

chemical

reactions,

even

explosions.

In

the

charging-discharging

process,

lithium

metal

can

form

dendrite

and

accumulate

on

electrodes.

The

growing

lithium

dendrite

could

puncture

the

separator

and

result

in

an

internal

short

circuit.•CONSEQUENCES:Except

BOLLORE,

all

the

companies

developing

Li

metal

batteries

cancelledtheir

projectsLi-ionbatteriesformobiledevicesmostlyusedaLithiumCobaltOxideCathodeandliquidelectrolyte.Incaseofoverchargingorshort-circuit(contactbetweenanode&cathode)achainreactionstarts->heating&gasing->fire(“Thermalrunaway”)CONSEQUENCES:In2006,SONYhadtorecallmillionsofportablePCsfortotalcostsof400millionUSD,morethanthereprofit-to-dateWith

new

cathode

chemistry,

most

of

the

automotive

today

on

the

markets

experienced

safetyconcerns:

(1)BYD

Taxi

in

China

with

a

lithium

iron

phosphate

cathode

(2)GM

Volt

in

the

USwith

a

LG

Chemical

battery

using

LMO

cathodes

(as

a

result

of

a

crashed

tested

Chevrolet

Volt

caught

three

weeks

after

the

testing

!)

(3)PRIUSP-HEVin

the

US(converted

from

HEVPrius

by

a

local

engineering

company

without

any

authorisation

by

Toyota)Boing787:ThefirethatburnednearthetailofaparkedBoeing787inBostonwascausedbyanoverheatingLithiumionbatterypack.Thebatteryfirecouldhavebeenhotenoughtomeltthecarbon-fiberreinforcedplasticthatmakesuptheplane’sshell.CONSEQUENCES:Allthe787worldwidearegrounded.ConsiderablelossesforBoing. ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

China25SAFETYISASINE-QUA-NONSELECTIONCRITERIAFORBATTERYTECHNOLOGIESSometechnologiesarealreadyoutofthegameduetostabilityissuesTheworldwideBattery marketandmaterials trends2013-2025 CIBF2014 June18-20 Shenzhen,China ChristophePILLOT +33147784600 c.pillot@avicenneLIBFORAUTOMOTIVEVALUECHAIN3

Tiers

1-

cell

manufacturersalliance:

most

of

them

disappear

(eg.

Saft-Johnson

Controls,

Bosch-

Samsung,

Enerdel-

Delphi…)4

Tiers

1-

OEM

alliance

on

Battery

are

not

successful5

Panasonic

and

LG

Chem,

cell

manufacturers

develop

raw

-material

in-

house

and

make

the

pack

integration

for

OEM6

On

a

different

scale,

Toyota,

BYD

or

BOLLORE

are

fully

integrate

26Comments

1

The

largest

share

of

the

value

(40%)

comes

from

cell

components

2

Cell

manufacturers&

OEM

alliance

may

be

the

winning

model

but

comes

with

high

risk

if

the

wrongcell

manufactureris

selectedAvInves250$tments:/kWhChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China27A123

MichiganPlant

-

Photo

courtesy

of

A123

SystemsLiotech

Plant,

Novosibirsk

–

1,5

GWh

production

capacity050010001500

Rusnano-Thunder

Sky

Lithium

Energy

Japan

Hitachi

Vehicle

Energy

SB

Limotive

GS

YUASADow

Kokam

(KD

ABG

MI)

Nissan-Renault

(Fr)

Ener1

Sanyo

A123

JCI

LG

Chem

BYD

Sony

NISSAN

Motor

US

PANASONICNissan-Renault

(Port)

Blue

Energy

ToshibaNissan

-

Renault

(UK)

LG

Chem

-

Compact…M$LIBMANUFACTURINGINVESTMENTS2009-201510-12B$WORLDWIDE>50GWhin2015

Total

Investment

(M$)

made

for

LIB

manufacturing

LiTec

GmbH

Panasonic

EV

SK

Energy

Mitsubishi

H.I.

NEC

Tokin

(Electrodes)

AESC

Japon

Hitachi

Vehicle

Energy

SAFT

SAFT

US

BAK

Lishen€150-€150-€350ChargerDC/DCGeneratorChristophe

PILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Batterymarket

and

materials

trends2013-2025CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

China28€100-€400€900-€1,250€150-€350€250€300-€500€50-€1,000-€400€2,500

€1,500-

€3,000

HVbattery

cellPackaging

materialCooling

SystInverterRectifier

HV

Cables&

ConnectorsBatt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

converterInverterOverall

LV

battery

packBATTERY&POWERELEC.COSTINEV

€8,250-€50-€5,500-

€18,100€300€8,000

HVbatt.PackforEV

€8,150-

€15,100

HVbatt.CELL

forEV0

€12

000

€10

000

€

8

000

€

6

000

€

4

000

€

2

000

€Power

ElecPack

ManufacturingBMSThermal

Mgmt

+

packagingCell

manuCellActive

Hybrid

5VoltBluecarLeaf

HEV

P-HEVAVICENNE

ENERGY

-

CONFIDENTIAL

INFORMATIONEV ChristophePILLOT +33147784600c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20Shenzhen,

ChinaLIBCELLBILLOFMATERIALS29AVICENNE

ENERGY

-

CONFIDENTIAL

INFORMATIONNISSAN

LEAFGM

VOLTBMW

ACTIVE

HYBRID

5BOLLORE

BLUE

CAR$

/

kWh$

/

kWhPackCellCellPackCellPackChristophe

PILLOT+

33

1

47

78

46

00c.pillot@avicenneThe

worldwide

Battery

market

and

materials

trends2013-2025

CIBF

2014

June

18-20

Shenzhen,

ChinaLI-IONBATTERYCOST2012-2020LIBcellaveragecost(36Ahpouch)LI-IONBATTERYPACKCOST30*

For

Production

>

100

000

packs/year(1)

Active

materials

only2015*2020*2012*0350300250200150100

50(EVdesign;LMO/NMCcathode)

400201220152020MarginWarrantyOverhead