2024 年未来一年的热门主题

%upside

GSvs.Cons*

FY2

Street

%Buy

TickerCompany

Consumer

MktCap($bn)

Price

PriceTgt

STZConstellationBrandsInc-A

$44.4

$242

$290

20%

3%

85%

WWWWInternationalInc

0.7

$9

$18

106%

>20%

57%

Financials

JEFJefferiesFinancialGroupIn

9.4

$40

$44

9%

-5%

40%

JPMJPMorganChase&Co

491.8

$170

$188

11%

5%

69%

OWLBlueOwlCapitalInc

21.0

$15

$16.25

9%

1%

69%

SPGSimonPropertyGroupInc

46.5

$143

$161.00

13%

0%

42%

Healthcare

MRKMerck&Co.Inc.

276.3

$109

$128

17%

3%

81%

QTRXQuanterixCorp

1.0

$27

$35

28%

5%

75%

VRTXVertexPharmaceuticalsInc

104.8

$407

$442

9%

1%

67%

Industrial

JBHTJBHuntTransportServices

20.6

$200

$219

10%

1%

62%

PPGPPGIndustriesInc

35.3

$150

$174

16%

8%

59%

PHParkerHannifinCorp

59.2

$461

$551

20%

1%

71%

RSGRepublicServicesInc

51.9

$165

$182

10%

0%

55%

TXTTextronInc

15.8

$80

$98

22%

7%

60%

NaturalResources

CVXChevronCorp

281.6

$149

$180

21%

-1%

73%

FSLRFirstSolarInc

18.4

$172

$275

60%

-1%

75%

SOTheSouthernCompany

76.5

$70

$82

17%

2%

50%

TMT

AAPLAppleInc

2,994.4

$193

$227

18%

6%

64%

AMZNAmazon.ComInc

1,570.2

$152

$190

25%

4%

97%

CTASCintasCorp

61.1

$603

$673

12%

0%

48%

NVDANvidiaCorp

1,223.2

$495

$625

26%

1%

92%

OKTAOktaInc

15.0

$91

$105

16%

1%

39%

TELTEConnectivity

43.7

$141

$175

25%

5%

50%

2January2024|5:01AMEST

USConvictionList-Directors’Cut

January2024Update:TopThemesfortheYearAhead

WeaddParkerHannifan(PH)andTextron(TXT)totheConvictionList,while

removingBath&BodyWorks(BBWI),Boeing(BA),Shift4Payments(FOUR),and

AIG(AIG).Wehaveabriefsummaryoftheseaddsbelow,andincludeamore

detailedwrite-upwithin,alongwithmarketcommentary,themestowatchin2024,areviewoflistperformanceandupcomingearningsandnon-earningscatalysts.

Exhibit1:ConvictionList-Directors’Cut

January2024Update:Allpricetargetsarefor12-months;Pricesareasof12/29/23;greenshadeindicatesnew

*EPS:AAPL,FSLR,JBHT,JEF,JPM,MRK,NVDA,OKTA,OWL,PPG,STZ,SO,TEL,VRTX;EBITDA:CTAS,CVX,PH,RSG,TXT,WW;EBIT:AMZN;Rev:QTRX;FFO:SPG

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Bloomberg,FactSet,VisibleAlphaConsensusData

ForParkerHannifin,JoeRitchiebelievesthatthecompany’sfavorableexposuretothedevelopmentof$170bnofmega-projectsthattheteamhasidentifiedshould

StevenKron

+1(212)902-1896|steven.kron@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ChrisHussey

+1(212)902-7564|chris.hussey@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JohnMarshall

+1(212)902-6848|

john.marshall@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.ThisreportisintendedfordistributiontoGSinstitutionalclientsonly.

GoldmanSachs

USConvictionList-Directors’Cut

2January2024

2

TableofContents

MarketCommentary:welanded,nowwhere’sthetaxi?

7ThemestoWatchin2024

Awordongrowthandmargins

ConvictionList-whathasworked,whathasnotandwhathaschanged

AnatomyoftheList

ConvictionListExplained-refrain

Our23mostdifferentiatedBuyrecommendations

ParkerHannifin(PH)-coveredbyJoeRitchie

Textron(TXT)-coveredbyNoahPoponak

DisclosureAppendix

4

6

9

11

14

16

17

18

21

23

GoldmanSachs

USConvictionList-Directors’Cut

2January2024

3

driveapositivegrowthaccelerationin1H24.

ForTextron,NoahPoponaklikesthecompany’sfavorableexposuretosustainedgrowthinbusinessjetdemandwhichcoupledwithsupplyconstraintsshoulddrivepricing

powerandstrongmargins—whichNoahbelievesshouldalsogetaboostlaterthisdecadefromanArmyhelicoptercontract.

2January2024

4

MarketCommentary:welanded,nowwhere’sthetaxi?

Asweheadinto2024,thequestionaroundwhethertheFedcouldsuccessfully

engineerasoftlandingoftheeconomyseemstohavebeenanswered,butthe

trajectoryofUSgrowthfromherestillremainsuncertain.Why?Becauseitalwaysdoes.Recessionsarerarely‘welltelegraphed.’TheTechBubbleof2001andtheensuing

recessiondidn’toccurbecauseeveryonesawitcoming.Itoccurredbecausefew

peoplebelievedthingswereoverheatinginrealtime.Similarly,thehousingbubbleof

2007/08didn’tburstbecauseeveryoneknewhomepriceshadrisentoofar,toofast.Itburstbecausepeoplebecamecomfortablewiththenotionthatthepriceoftheirhomewillrise~15%ayeareveryyear(asUCLA’sAndersonSchoolofBusinessprofessors

indicated),andtheyweresoconfident,thattheyborrowedagainstthatassumption(andlendersunderwrotetheborrowing).

Fastforwardtotheendof2023,andthecoastdoeslookclearfortheUSeconomy.

10-yearTreasuryyieldseclipsed5%earlierthisyear,buttheyarebackbelow4%now,andtheFedpivottowardsamoredovishstanceappearstobeunderway(seeDavidMericle’s“DecemberFOMCRecap”).Andoureconomistsforecastabove-consensusGDPgrowthevenayearfromnowasweexit2024(Q4/Q4)of2.0%(seeJanHatzius’Dec-18note,“TheGreatDisinflation”).

Butevenifoureconomicforecastsholdastheydidin2023,theoutlookforstocksisalwaysmoreuncertainthantheoutlookfortheeconomy.

AswestepintotheNewYear,wefindourselvespondering5questions:

1.Canvaluationsgoanyhigher?AsPeterOppenheimerhighlightedinlastweek’sglobalequitiesupdate,“Outoftherange,”wegointotheyearwithaverylow

equityriskpremium(i.e.,valuationsarestretched)—afactorthatmaycurbupsidefromhere.DavidKostin,however,believesthatdeceleratinginflationandFed

easingwillkeeprealyieldslowandsupportaP/Emultiplegreaterthan19xinthe

Dec-15note“Liftingour12-monthS&P500targetto5100.”Anditwillneedto.TheS&P500isalreadytradingat20XourS&P5002024eEPSforecastof$237.

2.Canearningsbeatexpectations?OurS&P500EPSforecastimpliesonly5%

growth—hardlythestuffofanAI-andanti-obesity-fueledeconomy.Butas

Oppenheimeralsohighlightedinthenoteabove,weappeartobeinthe‘Optimism’stageofthemarketcycle—thefinalstageina4-stagecyclefromDespairtoHopetoGrowthandfinallyOptimism.Andsofar,thiscycle—whichbeganwiththe

pandemic-inducedrecessionofMarch2020—hasfollowedthetypicalpatternwehaveobservedinpastcycles.Butonethingwehavelearnedinthispost-pandemiceraisthatthingsinthepost-pandemiceraarenotfunctioningquitelikethey

typicallydo.Inflationprovedtobetransitory.Manypeoplecontinuetoworkfromhome.AndjustlookathowmanypeopletraveledtoEuropelastsummer.Perhapsacorporateearningssurgeisnotbeyondtherealmofpossibilityinthisongoing

post-pandemicworld.

3.WilltheMagnificent7staymagnificent?Thetop7stocksintheS&P500capture

2January2024

5

28%ofthemarketcapoftheindex.That’salot,andreflectsnotonlythedesireofinvestorstofind‘safety’inreliablegrowthbutalsotheconcentrationofgrowthandmarketshareinmanyoftheeconomy’smostimportantsectors(computepower,

datastorage,eCommerce,software,EV’s,socialmedia,smartphones,andmedia

streaming).But24yearsago,attheendof1999,thetop7stocksbymarketcapintheS&P500wereMSFT,GE,CSCO,WMT,XOM,INTC,andLucent.Oneofthese7nolongerexists.AndonlyMSFTisstillamongthetop7today.Andeven10yearsago,thelistwasAAPL,XOM,MSFT,GOOGL,BRK,GE,andJNJ.TSLAwasstilla

start-upandAMZNwasprimarilystillonlyaneCommercecompany.It’stemptingtothinkthatthe‘Top7’willendureforever,buthistorysuggeststhatnewcompanieswillarisefromtheinnovationlandscapethattheUShasnurturedsincetheageof

thelocomotive.

4.Whatnewthemewillemerge?Goinginto2023,fewpeopleexpectedGenerativeAItocapturetheimagination—andcorporatecapexbudgets—oftheworld,butitdid(seeAllisonNathan’sJuly5TopofMind,“GenerativeAI:hype,ortruly

transformative?”forabroaddiscussion).Similarly,obesitydrugsimpactedcornersofthemarketplacefasterthanmanyanticipatedwithevenWMTcallingoutthenewdrugsasnegativelyimpactingfoodconsumption(seeOlivierNicolaiandteam’s

Oct-26note,“Howanti-obesitydrugsmaybechangingbuyinghabits;pre-clinicalstudies&impactonFood,Bev&Tobacco”andChrisShibutani’sDec-13update,

“TheObesityProject:MappingtheOutlookwithMoreOutcomesStudiesAhead”forthepathfromhere).Asweheadinto2024,theinnovationplatformoftheworldisboundtodeliveranewthemethatwillcaptureinvestorattention.Howtohop

ontothethemeandhowfartorideitisalwaysaquestion,aswell.

5.Willtheelectionmattertomarkets?AlecPhillipssetthetoneforthe2024

electionsinaNov-20note,“The2024Election:OneYearOut.”Importantly,pollsayearaheadoftheelectiontendtobeunreliable.Butwealsofindthatinprior

elections,economicdatalateintheyearpriortotheelectionandearlyinthe

electionyearhavethestrongestrelationshipwiththeultimatevote.Growth,

income,andemploymentindicatorsaremoreimportantthanfinancialmarket

variables.Asforwhatitmightmeanformarkets,DavidKostinpointsoutthatequityreturnstendtobeweakerthanaverageinpresidentialelectionyears—averagingonly4%since1984—inaNov-3note“Lookingatequityperformanceaheadof

elections.”Interestingly,profitgrowthtendstobestronginanelectionyear(seequestion#2above)andTechisusuallytheworstperformingsector(seequestion#3).

2January2024

6

7ThemestoWatchin2024

Twomajorthemesemergedin2023thatwereintheirinfancyasweenteredtheyearlastJanuary—GenerativeAIandanti-obesitydrugs.So,asweheadinto2024,werecognizethatmajorthemesmayemergeoutofthinair—especiallyastechnologicalandhealthcareadvancementsaccelerate.

OurUSConvictionListaimstocaptureidiosyncraticopportunitieswithsinglestock

ideaswherewebelieveouranalystshaveadifferentiatedview.Butwealsorecognizethatthemesoftenplayaroleindrivingsinglestockupside(seeLLYandNVDAin2023)andwithallofthisinmind,hereare7themeswearewatchingforintheyearaheadtokeepplayingout:

1.GenerativeAI.OuranalystshavewrittenextensivelyonthesubjectofGenerativeAI.Broadly,ouranalystsbelievethatAIinnovationwillboostproductivityleadingtoa0.4%increaseinannualGDPgrowth(seeJosephBriggs’Oct-29note,“UpgradingOur

Longer-RunGlobalGrowthForecaststoReflecttheImpactofGenerativeAI”andAllisonNathan’ssurveyofthetopicfromJuly,“GenerativeAI:hype,ortrulytransformative?”).Andatthesinglestocklevel,KashRangan,ToshiyaHariandteamhavehighlightedhowAIislikelytobeabigboomtothecompaniesthatcanprovidethecomputepowerandplatformstosupportAIinitiatives(seeHari’sJul-9note,“GenerativeAI-PartIII:FramingtheGenerativeAIopportunityforNvidia;ReiterateBuy”andRangan’sSoftwareOutlook“NavigatingTurbulencePartVII:FromSoftwareLandingtoPotentialInflection”).StocksontheCLwithexposuretothetheme:AMZN,NVDA.

2.GreenCapex.Theneedfortheworldtorespondtoclimatechangeisbecoming

increasinglyclearandcorporationsarerespondingtotheopportunitythatisemergingasgovernmentsincentivizeawaveofnewdevelopmenttohelptransitionfromfossilfuelstorenewableenergysources.BrianSingerandteamlaidouttheopportunityfor

US-focusedcompaniesinaGSSUSTAINnotefromMay,“GreenCapex:USInflation

ReductionAct:Latestviewsoncapitalmobility,timing,USbudget-relatedrisks.”And

oursinglestockanalystshavealsowrittenextensivelyaboutthethemefromtheneedformoreutility-scalesolarelectricityplants,totheemergingopportunitytoharness

methanegasfromoldgarbagedumps,tothere-emergingopportunityfornuclear

energytoplayabase-loadroleinacleanerUSelectricitynetwork,(seeBrianLee’s

“Solar2024Outlook”;JerryRevichandAdamBubes’Oct-22note,“Landfillgasdemandoutstrippingsupply”;andBrianLeeandCarlyDavenport’sOct-10note,“WeighinginonKeyDebatesinUtilitiesandSolarfollowingrecentvolatility”and“ResearchUnplugged:

RisingRates,Utilities&theFutureofRenewablesInvestment”).CLstockswithexposuretothetheme:FSLR,RSG,SO.

3.PrivateCredit(andEquity).LotfiKarouihighlightshow‘largecap’debtissuers

borrowed$49billionand€12billionintheUSDandEURdirectlendingmarkets(i.e,

privatecredit),respectivelyin2023in“CreditNotes:Whatwetookawayfrom2023”

(watchKaroui’svideo,too:“Shouldweworryaboutprivatecredit?”).Theappetiteof

investorstogainbetter-than-public-marketreturnscoupledwithsomeofthestreamlinedadvantagesthatissuerscangainfromstructuringprivatedebtdealsisattractingalotof

2January2024

7

interestinahigher-for-longeryieldenvironment.AndAlexBlosteinhighlightedhow

privatemarketretailproductsofferedbyassetmanagerscontinuetogaintraction,risingto$238bninOctoberinaNov-8update,“PrivateMarketRetailAlternatives.”AlexScottalsohighlightshowinsurancecompaniesareincreasinglyallocatingcapitaltoprivate

marketscreatingareliableandbigsourceoffundingforthismarketinanOct-24note,“ContinuedGrowthattheIntersectionofPrivateEquity&Insurance.”StockontheCLwithexposuretothetheme:OWL.

4.Theecho-boomofthepost-pandemicera.Thismaybethethemethatkeepson

giving,butitalsomaybeenteringitslastyearastheworldcontinuestoslipbacktoa

newpost-pandemic‘normal.’Andouranalystshavebeenexploringjusthowsectorsarecontinuingtoreacttopost-pandemicanomalies.Notably,JordanAlligermakesthecaseforshippingvolumestofindabottomin2024ascustomersrestockdepletedstoreandfactoryshelvesin“Transportation2024Outlook”(seealsotheOct-27note,“Eyeon

Freight:“BigThree”TurnsPositiveYoY;BuyUNPandJBHT”).Thedesire(andability)totravelalsoremainsathemewithlegsasNoahPoponakhighlightshisfavorableviewondemandforairplanesin“2024Outlook:Aerospace:Earlystagesofalong-cycle

recovery.”Conversely,intheHealthcaresector,AsadHaiderexpectscontinued

normalizationinutilizationpatterns(albeitwithsomeexceptions)asheandtheteamdetailin“Healthcare2024Outlook:InSearchOfAFloorIn2024.”

Theecho-boomisalsotakingadifferentshapeintwonotablesectors:Financialsand

Tech.Throughout2023,companiesinthesetwosectorsappearedtotreadverysoftlyinthewakeoftheMarchRegionalBanksCrisisandthe2021Techbubblebursting.But

headinginto2024,thetonedoesappeartobechanging.RichardRamsdenandteam

highlighthowbankssetoutaconstructiveoutlookontheeconomyandtheopportunitysetatourconferenceheldinearlyDecemberin“TakeawaysfromDay2ofthe2023USFinancialServicesConference:USBanks,ConsumerFinanceandAdvisors”(listenin,

also,to“ResearchUnplugged:2023USFinancialServicesConferenceTakeaways”).

AndinTech,KashRanganhighlightedapositiveinflectioninhiringtrendatkeysoftwarecompaniescomingoutofourCommunacopiaConferenceheldinSeptemberin

“Communacopia+Technology2023—SoftwareLandingDrivenbyGenerativeAI

Tailwind.”Increasedhiringatsoftwarecompaniesisfrequentlyfollowedbyagrowth

acceleration,andRanganrecommendsleaningintosuchanaccelerationintheyear

aheadin“NavigatingTurbulencePartVII:FromSoftwareLandingtoPotentialInflection.”

StocksontheCLwithexposuretothistheme:JBHT,TXT,CTAS,JPM,JEF,AMZN,OKTA.

5.Obesitydrugs.LLYsharesgainedalmost60%in2023,pushingthestockuptobe

the9thlargestcompanybymarketcapintheS&P500—allonthestrengthofitsnewobesitydrug.Buttheprospectsaregreatformoredrugstoenterthemarketfroma

slewofcompetitorsaddressingarangeofmaladiesbeyondobesityasChrisShibutni

laidoutin“TheObesityProject:MappingtheOutlookwithMoreOutcomesStudies

Ahead.”Capturingthisopportunityismoredifficultgiventhestrongrunsomestocks

havealreadyexhibited,butJohnMarshall,AsadHaiderandteamprovideaframeworkforgettingyourarmsaroundtheinvestmentopportunityin“TheOptionValueofWeightManagement:GLP-1casestudy.”

2January2024

8

6.Manufacturingrenaissance.Atthenexusofgreencapex,deglobalization,theIRA,andlingeringpost-pandemicsupplychainconcernsliestheManufacturingRenaissance.JoeRitchieleansintocompanieswithexposuretoaslewofprojectsthatareslatedtobebuilthereandaroundtheworldin“Multi-Industry2024Outlook:Megaproject-

inflection(HVAC,Electrical,Industrial)”(seealsoournewtoolfortrackingthese

projects,“IntroducingourMegaProjecttracker,orderinflectionin1H24”).JerryRevichandteamalsoestimatethatwecouldsee~$600bninincrementalcapexbeyondthecycleby2030drivenbydiscreteUSindustrialtrends—semiconductorinvestment,

reshoring,electricvehicleinvestment,utilitycapex,hydrogen,andelectriccharging

stationinvestment—in“What’sthemagnitudeofUScapexupsidebeyondthecycle?”StocksontheCLwithexposuretothetheme:PH,PPG,TXT,JBHT,FSLR,NVDA,

TEL,CTAS.

7.Internetgrowthmaturationandtheblurringofbusinessmodels.EricSheridanwritesthatinapost-pandemicenvironment,growthismaturingfortheInternet

comparedto5-10yearagolevels.Andlowergrowthrates(singledigitvs20%,

previously)aredrivingindustryparticipantstoincreasinglyexplorenewavenuesfor

growthandsynergyacrossindustrysub-sectors—anexplorationthatisresultingintheblurringofoperatinglinesbetweenadvertisingandcommerce,consumptionhabitsandaggregatedconsumerbehaviorwithinscaledecosystemsashedetailsin“10IndustryThemesfor2024&FocusStocksGoingForward.”AMZNiswellpositionedtothriveinablurringworldasitalreadyhascombineditsAmazonPrimevideoproductwithits

eCommerceplatformandofcourseAWS.Butsmaller,andevenmorelocalinternet

platformsarealsolikelytothriveinsuchanenvironmentasconsumerproduct

companiesseekoutinnovativewaystoreachexistingandprospectivecustomers.StocksontheCLwithexposuretothistheme:AMZN,WW,STZ.

Awordongrowthandmargins

Marketvolatilityoverthelastseveralweeksandmonthshascenteredoneconomic

indicatorsandtheirimpactonthetrajectoryofrates.Microstockmoveshavebeen

moreafunctionofinvestorpositioning,riskappetiteandtheimpactofthemovesin

ratesoncashflowandequitypricesandlessontheidiosyncraticopportunitiesthatthislistisdesignedtohighlight.

Asweflipthecalendarto2024weexpectabetterbackdropforidiosyncraticstock

picking;with10-yearyieldswellofftheir2023highs(nowat3.9%,downfromapeakof5.0%just10weeksago)andGDPgrowthexpectedtosettleinataround2.3%(basedonoureconomists’estimatesandsimilartothe2.4%oureconomistsexpectforfull

year2023).Thatsaid,withmarketmultiplesnowsittingat~20X2024EPS,investorsarenowgrapplingwiththedifficultyofmakingmoneyinstocksinthefaceofstable,but

lowgrowth,andcorporatemarginsthatmayhaveatoughertimeexpanding.

Stockstendtofollowearningsrevisionsovertime.Highqualityearningsrevisionstendtostartwithsales.Giventheaforementionedexpectationofachallengingtopline

growthenvironment,companiesthatcanshowsustainabilityofhighsalesgrowth

and/ortheaccelerationofsalesgrowtharelikelytoberareanddeserveanexpandedvaluationmultiple.BelowwehighlightnamesontheConvictionListthatofferhighandacceleratingtoplinegrowthperouranalysts’forecasts.

Exhibit2:Toplinegrowthwillbeincreasinglyscarce...acceleratingtoplinegrowthevenscarcer

ConvictionListnameswithsustained>10%toplinegrowthandacceleratingtoplinegrowthperouranalysts’forecasts

HighToplineGrowth

AcceleratingToplineGrowth

SalesGrowthYoY%

SalesGrowthYoY%

Ticker

CompanyName

2023E2024E

Ticker

CompanyName

2023E2024E

NVDA

NvidiaCorp.

119%

50%

JEF

JefferiesFinancialGroup

-21%

32%

OWL

BlueOwlCapital

23%

25%

OWL

BlueOwlCapital

23%

25%

FSLR

FirstSolarInc.

34%

24%

QTRX

QuanterixCorp.

13%

20%

QTRX

QuanterixCorp.

13%

20%

WW

WWInternationalInc.

-14%

14%

OKTA

Okta

21%

11%

MRK

Merck&Co.

1%

6%

AMZN

AInc.

11%

10%

AAPL

AppleInc.

-3%

6%

JBHT

J.B.HuntTransportServicesInc.

-14%

5%

SO

SouthernCo.

-10%

5%

TEL

TEConnectivityLtd.

-2%

2%

Note:Fiscalyeardata;2024Erepresentsfiscalyear-enddates

betweenJul2024

CVXChevronCorp.

andJun2025.

-16%

2%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Below,weofferConvictionListcompaniesthathaveshown,andouranalystsexpectwillcontinuetoshow,continuedmarginimprovementandthosethathaven’tshown,butouranalystsexpectwillshow,positivemarginexpansion.

2January20249

GoldmanSachs

USConvictionList-Directors’Cut

Exhibit3:Marginexpansionmaybehardertocomebyin2024

ConvictionListcontinuedmarginimproversandmarginreboundersperouranalysts’forecasts

ContinuedMarginImprovement

ReboundingMargins

OperatingMargin

2022

-11%

23%

18%

-1%

2%

11%

2023E

24%54%22%13%6%14%

2024E

35%60%27%17%8%15%

TickerCompanyName

FSLRFirstSolarInc.

NVDANvidiaCorp.

SOSouthernCo.

OKTAOkta

AMZNAInc.

PPGPPGIndustriesInc.

3521

3061

414

1317

353

263

OpMarginChg.(bps)'23vs.'22'24vs.'23

1010

575

429

386

197

157

TickerCompanyName

OperatingMargin

2022

38%18%15%48%57%18%30%10%

2024E

42%17%17%43%58%18%31%9%

2023E

10%

8%

9%

40%

57%

17%

30%

8%

-2800

-1001

-562

-837

-21

-152

-47

-131

OpMarginChg.(bps)'23vs.'22'24vs.'23

3151

954

797

317

137

116

115

78

MRK

JEF

WW

VRTX

OWL

TEL

AAPL

JBHT

Merck&Co.

JefferiesFinancialGroup

WWInternationalInc.

VertexPharmaceuticalsInc.

BlueOwlCapital

TEConnectivityLtd.

AppleInc.

J.B.HuntTransportServicesInc.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

BelowwehighlightConvictionListcompaniesthathaveseenupwardrevisionstotheirkeyperformanceindicators(KPIs)inthemostrecentthreemonthsandwhereour

analystsestimatescallforfurtherrevisionstothosemetrics.

Exhibit4:Earningsdrivestocks:NameswithupwardKPIrevisionswhereouranalystsseecontinuerevisionpotential(pricesasof12/29/23);timeframeforpricetargetsis12months

Positive3mConsensusRevisions;GSEstimates>ConsensusEstimates

Ticker

CompanyName

Metric

FY2ConsEstChgSinceOct1,2023

GSvs.Cons(FY2)

Sector

MktCap

$B

Last

Close

TargetPrice

Upsideto

Target

GSEstCons%diff.

JPM

J.P.MorganChase&Co.

EPS

6%

16.3415.52

5%

BanksandAdvisors

492

170

188

10%

QTRX

QuanterixCorp.

Sales

4%

143136

5%

LifeScienceToolsandDiagnostics

1

29

35

22%

OKTA

Okta

EPS

31%

2.031.96

4%

EmergingSoftware

16

91

105

15%

AMZN

AInc.

EBIT

14%

49,61448,747

2%

Internet

1,583

153

190

24%

PH

ParkerHannifinCorp.

EPS

2%

25.7025.29

2%

Multi-Industry

60

462

551

19%

VRTX

VertexPharmaceuticalsInc.

EPS

2%

16.5116.34

1%

Biotechnology

106

409

442

8%

PPG

PPGIndustriesInc.

EPS

1%

9.118.41

8%

Chemicals

36

150

174

16%

NVDA

NvidiaCorp.

EPS

20%

20.6020.46

1%

SemiconductorsandSemiEquipmen

1,235

495

625

26%

PH

ParkerHannifinCorp.

EPS

2%

25.7025.29

2%

Multi-Industry

60

462

551

19%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Bloomberg

2January202410

GoldmanSachs

USConvictionList-Directors’Cut

ConvictionList-whathasworked,whathasnotandwhathaschanged

WeprovidetheperformanceofeachnameonthelistforthemonthofDecemberandthelife-to-d