阿尔文·托夫勒

AlvinTofflerThesolecertaintyisthattomorrowwillsurpriseusall.TheBriefIntroductionAlvinToffler

(1928.10.04)isanAmericanwriterand

futurist,knownforhisworksdiscussingthe

digitalrevolution,

communicationrevolution

and

technologicalsingularity.Tofflerisaformerassociateeditorof

Fortunemagazine.Inhisearlyworkshefocusedontechnologyanditsimpactthrougheffectslike

informationoverload.Hemovedontoexaminingthereactionto

changesinsociety.Hislaterfocushasbeenontheincreasingpowerof21st-centurymilitaryhardware,theproliferationofnewtechnologies,andcapitalism.HefoundedTofflerAssociates,amanagementconsultingcompany,andwasavisitingscholaratthe

RussellSageFoundation,visitingprofessorat

CornellUniversity,facultymemberofthe

NewSchoolforSocialResearch,aWhiteHousecorrespondent,aneditorofFortunemagazine,andabusinessconsultant.TofflerismarriedtoHeidiToffler,alsoawriterandfuturist.Theyliveinthe

BelAir

sectionofLosAngeles,California,justnorthof

SunsetBoulevard.Thecouple’sonlychild,KarenToffler,(1954–2000),diedattheageof46aftermorethanadecadesufferingfrom

Guillain–Barrésyndrome.Earlylifeandcareer

AlvinTofflerwasborninNewYorkcityin1928.Hemethisfuturewife,Heidi,at

NewYorkUniversitywherehewasanEnglishmajorandshewasstartingagraduatecourseinlinguistics.Beingradicalstudents,theydecidedagainstfurthergraduatework,movedtothe

MidwesternUnitedStates,andmarried,spendingthenextfiveyearsasblue-collarworkersonassemblylineswhilestudyingindustrialmassproductionintheirdailywork.Heidibecameaunionshopstewardinthealuminumfoundrywheresheworked.Alvinbecameamillwrightandwelder.Theirhands-onpracticallaborexperiencegotTofflerapositiononaunion-backednewspaper,atransfertoitsWashingtonbureau,thenthreeyearsasa

WhiteHouseCorrespondent

coveringCongressandtheWhiteHouseforaPennsylvaniadaily.Meanwhile,hiswifeworkedataspecializedlibraryforbusinessandbehavioralscience.TheyreturnedtoNewYorkCitywhen

Fortune

magazineinvitedAlvintobecomeitslaborcolumnist,laterhavinghimwriteaboutbusinessandmanagement.Afterleaving

Fortune

magazine,AlvinTofflerwashiredbyIBMtodoresearchandwriteapaperonthesocialandorganizationalimpactofcomputers,leadingtohiscontactwiththeearliestcomputer“gurus”andartificialintelligenceresearchersandproponents.

Xeroxinvitedhimtowriteaboutitsresearchlaboratoryand

AT&T

consultedhimforstrategicadvice.ThisAT&TworkledtoastudyoftelecommunicationswhichadviseditstopmanagementforthecompanytobreakupmorethanadecadebeforethegovernmentforcedAT&Ttobreakup。Inthemid-’60s,theToffler'sbeganworkonwhatwouldlaterbecome

FutureShock.In1996,withTomJohnson,anAmericanbusinessconsultant,theyco-foundedTofflerAssociates,anadvisoryfirmdesignedtoimplementmanyoftheideastheToffler'shadwrittenon.Thefirmworkedwithbusinesses,NGOs,andgovernmentsintheU.S.,SouthKorea,Mexico,Brazil,Singapore,Australia,andothercountries.FutureShockThemodernmanfeelsshockfromrapidchanges.FutureShockFutureShock

isabookwrittenbythe

futurist

AlvinToffler

in1970.Inthebook,Tofflerdefinestheterm"futureshock"asacertainpsychologicalstateofindividualsandentiresocieties.Hisshortestdefinitionforthetermisapersonal

perception

of"toomuchchangeintooshortaperiodoftime".Thebook,whichbecameaninternationalbestseller,grewoutofanarticle"TheFutureasaWayofLife"inHorizon

magazine,Summer1965issue.

Thebookhassoldover6millioncopiesandhasbeenwidelytranslated.FutureShockTofflerarguedthatsocietyisundergoinganenormousstructuralchange,arevolutionfroman

industrialsociety

toa"super-industrialsociety".Thischangeoverwhelmspeople.Hebelievedtheacceleratedrateoftechnologicalandsocialchangeleftpeopledisconnectedandsufferingfrom"shatteringstressanddisorientation"—futureshocked.Tofflerstatedthatthemajorityofsocialproblemsaresymptomsoffutureshock.Inhisdiscussionofthecomponentsofsuchshock,hepopularizedtheterm"informationoverload."Hisanalysisofthephenomenonofinformationoverloadiscontinuedinhislaterpublications,especiallyTheThirdWave

and

Powershift.Intheintroductiontoanessayentitled"FutureShlock"inhisbook,

ConscientiousObjections,

NeilPostman

wrote:"Sometimeaboutthemiddleof1963,mycolleagueCharlesWeingartnerandIdeliveredintandemanaddresstothe

NationalCouncilofTeachersofEnglish.Inthataddressweusedthephrase"futureshock"asawayofdescribingthesocialparalysisinducedbyrapidtechnologicalchange.Tomyknowledge,WeingartnerandIwerethefirstpeopleevertouseitinapublicforum.Ofcourse,neitherWeingartnernorIhadthebrainstowriteabookcalled

FutureShock,andallduecreditgoesto

AlvinToffler

forhavingrecognizedagoodphrasewhenonecamealong"(p.

162).TheThirdWaveTheThirdWaveTheThirdWave

isabookpublishedin1980by

AlvinToffler.Itisthesequelto

FutureShock,publishedin1970,andthesecondinwhatwasoriginallylikelymeanttobeatrilogythatwascontinuedwithPowershift:Knowledge,WealthandViolenceattheEdgeofthe21stCenturyin1990.Anewaddition,RevolutionaryWealth,waspublished,however,in2006andmaybeconsideredasamajorexpansionof

TheThirdWave.TheThirdWaveInthebookTofflerdescribesthreetypesofsocieties,basedontheconceptof'waves'—eachwavepushestheoldersocietiesandculturesaside.1.TheFirstWaveisthesettledagriculturalsocietywhichprevailedinmuchoftheworldaftertheNeolithicRevolution,whichreplaced

hunter-gatherercultures.2.TheSecondWaveis

IndustrialAge

society.TheSecondWavebeganinWesternEuropewiththe

IndustrialRevolution,andsubsequentlyspreadacrosstheworld.KeyaspectsofSecondWavesocietyarethe

nuclearfamily,afactory-typeeducationsystemandthe

corporation.Tofflerwrites:"TheSecon