风险层次结构

风险层次结构根据上一节对XXXX商业地产项目在开发过程中可能遇到的风险进行的分析，可以对这些风险按照逻辑相关性进行风险的结构层次划分，商业地产项目开发过程风险结构层次如表所示：投资决策阶段R1可行性研究风险R11开发时机风险R12开发区域选择风险R13投资物业类型风险R14前期准备阶段R2融资风险R21合同风险R22工程招标风险R23土地获取风险R24勘测设计风险R25前期手续风险R26项目建设阶段R3工期风险R31成本风险R32质量风险R33安全风险R34运营租售阶段R4市场需求风险R41营销策划风险R42销售时机风险R43运营决策机制风险R44用结构层可以表示如图：XXXX商业地产项目风险评价根据以上对XXXX商业地产项目风险识别和分析，以及对其风险结构的分层本文通过层次分析法对商业地产项目开发过程的风险进行评估分析。层次分析法1、构造矩阵RRR1R2R3R4R11345R21/3146R31/41/412R41/51/61/21R1R11R12R13R14R111246R121/2124R131/41/212R141/61/41/21R2R21R22R23R24R25R26R21122445R221/211234R231/211234R241/41/21/2122R251/41/31/31/211R261/51/41/41/211R3R31R32R33R34R311235R321/2124R331/31/212R341/51/41/21R4R41R42R43R44R411234R421/2113R431/3113R441/41/31/21

2、层次单排序以及一致性检验(1)设定判断矩阵R,求出判断矩阵A每列之和，如表所示RR1R2R3R4R11345R21/3146R31/41/412R41/51/61/21每列之和1.78334.41679.514(0.56080.67920.42110.35710.18690.22640.42110.42860.14020.05660.10530.1429j0.11220.03770.05260.0714第一，对矩阵进行归一化，得出正规矩阵A'=丿第二，求出正规矩阵A',每列之和，得到向量B'(2.0182、B'B'=0.44500.2739丿第三，再对矩阵B'，第三，再对矩阵B'，排序向量。'0.5045、0.31570.1112.0.0685丿进行归一化，得到向量B，即为R1—R层影响重要程度的B=第四，一致性检验A.求赋权和向量AB=/11/31/4J/5AB=/11/31/4J/5311/41/6)(0.5045)'2.2389、0.31571.33970.11120.4532丿0.0685丿、0.2776丿4411/2621求出入max入max=(AB)/n*B+(AB)/n*B+....+(AB)/n*B)1122n=2.2389/4*0.5045+1-3397/4*0.3157+0.4532/(4*0.1112)+0.2776/4*0.06854.2024计算一致性指标CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(4.2024-4)/30.0675求出一致性率CR,因为n=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0675/0.9=0.075<0.1由此可见R判断矩阵具有满意一致性(0.5217(0.52170.53330.53330.4615、0.26090.26670.2667A1'0.26090.26670.2667A1'=0.13040.13330.13330.30770.1538(0.08700.06670.0667(0.08700.06670.06670.0769丿(2)设定判断矩阵R1，求出判断矩阵A1每列之和，如表所示R1R11R12R13R14R111246R121/2124R131/41/212R141/61/41/21每列之和1.91673.75007.50013第一，对矩阵进行归一化，得出正规矩阵第二，求出正规矩阵A',每列之和，得到向量B1'(2.0498、1.1020B1'=0.5508(0.2973丿第三，再对矩阵B1'，进行归一化，得到向量B1，即为R11—R14层影响重要程度的排序向量。(0.5125'0.2755B1=0.1377(0.0743丿第四，一致性检验

A.求赋权和向量/1246、'0.5125、'2.0601、1/21240.27551.1044A1B1=1/41/.2120.1377=0.5522J/61/41/21丿、0.0743丿、0.2975丿B.求出入max入max=2.0610/4*0.5125+1.1044/4*0.27755+0.5522/4*0.1377+0.2975/4*0.0743=4.0106计算一致性指标CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(4.0106-4)/(4-1)=0.0035求出一致性率CR,因为n=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0035/0.9=0.0039<0.1由此可见R判断矩阵具有满意一致性A2'A2'='0.37040.39340.39340.40.28570.2941、0.18520.19670.19670.20.21430.23530.18520.19670.19670.20.21430.23530.09260.09840.09840.10.14290.11760.09260.06560.06560.50.07140.0588、0.07410.04920.04920.50.07140.0588丿第二，求出正规矩阵A2'，每列之和，得到向量B2'(3)设定判断矩阵R2,求出判断矩阵A2每列之和，如表所示R2R21R22R23R24R25R26R21122445R221/211234R231/211234R241/41/21/2122R251/41/31/31/211R261/51/41/41/211每列之和2.75.08335.0833101417第一，对A2矩阵进行归一化，得出正规矩阵'2.1370、1.22821.2282B2'=0.64990.404010.3527丿第三，再对矩阵B2'，进行归一化，得到向量B2，即为R21—R24层影响重要程度的排序向量。'0.3562、0.20470.2047B2=0.1083r122r12241/2112A2B2=1/21121/41/21/211/41/31/31/2J/51/41/41/20.0673、0.0588丿第四，一致性检验A.求赋权和向B.求出入max45]r0.3562、f2.1714'340.20471.2412340.20471.2412220.10830.6544110.06730.405811丿、0.0588丿、0.3539丿入max=2.1714/6*0.3526+1.2412/6*0.0247+1.2412/6*0.0247+0.6544/6*0.1803+0.4058/6*0.0673+0.3539/6*0.0588=6.0524计算一致性指标CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(6.0524-6)/(6-1)=0.0105求出一致性率CR,因为n=6，查的RI=1.24CR=CI/RI=0.0105/1,.24=0.0085<0.1由此可见R判断矩阵具有满意一致性2

(0.49180.2459A3'=0.163910.09840.53330.26670.13330.0667(0.49180.2459A3'=0.163910.09840.53330.26670.13330.06670.46150.30770.15380.07690.4167'0.33330.16670.0833丿R3R31R32R33R34R311235R321/2124R331/31/212R341/51/41/21每列之和2.03333.756.512第一，对A3矩阵进行归一化，得出正规矩阵第二，求出正规矩阵A3'，每列之和，得到向量B3'(1.9033\1.1536B3'=0.6177、0.3253丿第三，再对矩阵B3'，进行归一化，得到向量B3，即为R31—R34层影响重要程度的排序向量。(0.4758、0.2884B3=0.1544、0.0813丿第四，一致性检验A.求赋权和向(1235「(0.4758、j.9233「1/21240.28841.1603A3B3=1/31/2120.1544=0.6198J/51/41/21丿、0.08。0.3258B.求出入max入max=1.9233/4*0.4758+1.1603/4*0.2884+0.6189/4*0.1544+0.3258/4*0.0813=4.0212

C.计算一致性指标CICI=(Amax-n)/(n-l)=(4.0212-4)/(4-1)=0.0071D.求出一致性率CR,因为n=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.007l/0.9=0.0079<0.l由此可见R3判断矩阵具有满意一致性(5)设定判断矩阵R4,求出判断矩阵A4每列之和，如表所示R4R41R42R43R44R411234R421/2113R431/3113R441/41/31/21每列之和2.08334.33335.333311第一，对A4矩阵进行归一化，得出正规矩阵0.3636、0.3636、0.27270.27270.0909丿0.24000.23080.1875A4=‘10.12000.07690.0625‘10.12000.07690.0625第二，求出正规矩阵A4'，每列之和，得到向量B4''1.8676、‘0.9310B4'=‘‘‘0.8510、0.3510丿第三，再对矩阵B4'，进行归一化，得到向量B4，即为R41—R44层影响重要程度的排序向量。(0.4669、‘0.2328B4=‘‘0.212810.0876丿第四，一致性检验A.求赋权和向量/1234、'0.4669、'1.9213'1/21130.23280.9419A4B4=1/31130.2128=0.8640J/41/31/31丿0.0876丿、0.3528丿求出入max入max=19213/4*0.4669+0.9419/4*0.2328+0.8640/4*0.2128+0.3528/4*0.0876=4.0621计算一致性指标CICI=（入max-n）/（n-1）=（4.0621-4）、（4-1）=0.0207求出一致性率CR,因为n=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0207/0.9=0.23<0.1由此可见R4判断矩阵具有满意一致性风险层次总排序1，根据以上计算的各层权重得出每层权重总排序，如表所示：层次R1R2R3R4总排序Z0.50450.31570.11120.0685R110.51250.2586R120.27550.1390R130.13770.0695R140.07430.0375R210.35620.1125R220.20470.0646R230.20470.0646R240.10830.0342R250.06730.0212R260.05880.0186R310.47580.0529R320.28840.0321R330.15440.0172R340.08130.0090R410.46690.0320R420.23280.0159R430.21280.0146R440.08760.0060总排序的一致性检验CI=R1*CI+R2*CI+R3*CI+R4*CI1234=0